66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Drama Lead Actor

And we’re now down to the last male acting category for this year’s Emmy analysis special here at Tit for Tat. After Jeff Daniels’ out of nowhere win last year, this is surely a contended race and definitely one of the nail-biters come Emmy ceremony. Let’s discuss Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

Despite winning two Oscars and a few SAGs under his belt, Kevin Spacey still hasn’t won an Emmy (and a Golden Globe for that matter) despite having multiple nominations already. This year, Spacey is nominated once again for House of Cards, and he submitted the season finale “Chapter 26” to the panel. In it, we see Vice President Frank Underwood doing some saving after his allies find out his backstabbing plans. He then turns tables around to fix it which led to a chilling ending for his character. This is really a great arc for Spacey and he was given a lot to do with it making him feel empowered, defeated, vindicated all in one episode. He talks to the camera, he does a narration, he connives, and he is vile in it. I really am surprised that he hasn’t won any award for this role so far, but with lesser competition next year, maybe that’s when he’ll start to actually dominate the race.

Now going to his seventh nomination with no wins still, Jon Hamm has become one of the perennial losers in this category even surpassing Hugh Laurie and Michael C. Hall already. While it seems like the Academy doesn’t like the acting on Mad Men, it also didn’t help that he submitted “The Stretegy” which wasn’t his strongest episode this season. As opposed to the previous episodes, voters get to sympathize with Don Draper this time upon realizing that his marriage is falling apart and has to convince Peggy that he’s helping and not sabotaging her. But really, it’s all moot. Maybe he can take advantage of the empty crowd next year with the show’s final season in play.

People surely underestimated him last year and at the nominations last month, but it seems like Jeff Daniels is here to stay…for this year at least. Refuting to be a one hit wonder, Daniels picks up a consecutive nod to regain his title and had “Election Night Part 2″ to help him achieve that. In this episode, we see a more personal story from Will as he tackles his relationship with MacKenzie ending with a proposal. While this is not at the same level of the speech he gave in his winning episode last year, I think he has stronger competition this year to do a repeat of his win.

In one of the best episodes submitted ever in this category. Bryan Cranston in “Ozymandias” is certainly the best tape he has submitted in this category including all his three winning tapes here before. He is on fire for the whole episode here with a nod to his earlier Walt at the start of the episode up until that confrontation with Anna Gunn in the end. There’s no denying that this is a powerful tape and one that can easily win again since his last victory four years ago. If only he had weaker competition, I’d be very easy to say this will be an easy one for the books but then comes…

True Detective. Both the leads of the show got nominated here and let’s start with Emmy winner Woody Harrelson. Woody was wise to submit “The Locked Room” which had him dealing with his family’s reaction to his work. Due to his covering of the case, he has forgotten about his family which ended with him breaking down when confronted by his wife. There’s also a scene with his mistress near the end where he demands that she sees no other man aside from him. As for his co-star’s tape, he benefits from it since it’s the finale episode of the series.

Lastly, coming off from an Oscar win last March, Matthew McConaughey is now on the hunt for the Emmy as well as the other actor of True Detective. While his submissions is arguable to most people (majority felt he should have went with “The Secret  Fate of All Life” or Who Goes There“), his submission of the series finale “Form and Void” isn’t really something to be ashamed off. In it, they’ve finally put the pieces of the puzzle together which ended with a creepy chasing scene at the maze. In the final scene, McConaughey delivers a really strong monologue which can seal the high rankings from the panel. He also benefits from Harrelson’s tape, as it showcased a different side of Rust so that’s two tapes from him.

I guess it all boils down to Bryan Cranston and Matthew McConaughey. Cranston submitted his consensus tour de force tape while others are meh on McConaughey. But then again, he has two tapes which shows his range, and it’s the last two they’ll be seeing when they watch the Lead Actor reel (since episodes are arranged on the tape alphabetically of the show’s name). When you have two great tapes competing, that’s when the outside factors in, and I think McConaughey is ahead of that. He’s basically Hollywood’s “go to” guy now after his career turnaround the past few years. While Cranston aims to tie the record of Dennis Franz in this category with four wins, this is their only chance to reward McConaughey for this performance. If ever there’s someone who’ll be tying Dennis Franz though, it’ll be Bryan Cranston, but I think this is the case where Cranston’s three previous Emmy wins hurt his chances when pitted against showbiz’ poster actor in a one time performance.

Prediction: Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
Alternate: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad

Full Rankings:
01. Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
02. Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad
03. Kevin Spacey, ‘House of Cards
04. Woody Harrelson, “True Detective
05. Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom
06. Jon Hamm, “Mad Men

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Comedy Lead Actress

Hi there! We now approach the last comedy acting category for this year, as we save the best ladies for last. Today, I’ll be sharing my thoughts with regards to Julia Louis Dreyfus’ Emmy. Is she really a sure thing? Can Amy Poehler follow her Globe win with an Emmy? Is Taylor Schilling the next Orange acting Emmy winner? Or will Melisa McCarthy snoop it out of nowhere like in 2011?

I guess let’s begin with 5x nominee here and still Emmy empty Amy Poehler. For this year, she submitted “Recall Vote” where in everyone was shocked to see that Leslie will lose by a landslide. This caused much stress to her and led her to get drunk with Ben instead and consider of getting a couple tattoo with him. Through the help of best friend Ann, Leslie gets up to her senses and made the most out of her remaining 30 days in position. This is a good submission by Poehler seeing the contrast of fun and wacky Leslie to the responsible and ideal one. However, the bias against Greg Daniel shows’ lead characters (filed under Carell, Steve) is always present. It also doesn’t help that Poehler had literally submitted anything during her previous four bids to no avail. I think the time has passed already to win for this role, at least.

After missing out last year, Melissa McCarthy comes back for her third nomination for Mike and Molly. Her episode “Mind Over Molly” is a classic and traditional competitive Emmy submission as it plays the laughter and the emotion when she dealt with her deceased father over therapy. While her 2011 victory can be credited to her breakout soon to be Oscar nominated role in Bridesmaids, her summer film Tammy panned out this year which doesn’t help her chances. That said, this is really a great episode and she represents the traditional comedy sitcom in this line up that it’s hard to dismiss her.

It was good that Netflix was easy to switch genres even before campaigning (though they flubbed at the Globes) since Taylor Schilling has no chance in hell to win, let alone be nominated in the drama category. In comedy, however, she is really competitive. While I was expecting her to submit the show pilot since it makes sense for her character, she went with the broader comedic episode of The Chickening. While she managed to avoid the darker material of her character, she really wasn’t able to showcase the comedic ones as well. That said, Schilling is one of last season’s breakout stars that if there’s a really sudden surge of love for the show, she’s a fitting representative to be rewarded.

Edie Falco continues her reign of nomination here after her victory in 2010 for Nurse Jackie. Not only is she reaping Emmy nods, but she’s coming back again to be nominated at the Globes and SAG as well. As for this year, she went with “Super Greens” which has Jackie mixing her personal and work life as a mother, worker, friend, and wife in it. It’s a serious episode which had Falco resort again to her meds and see her sponsor again. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s front and center in her episode, though  this is more dramatic than her winning one four years ago.

Like her on-screen partner Adam Driver, Lena Dunham had a better tape this year with “Role-play” but decided to go somewhere else and submitted “Beach House” instead. I call this the Tina Fey syndrome. in 2007, Fey had a competitive tape via The C Word but went with her written episode Up All Night. Alas, it led to America Ferrera winning the Emmy. Lena is one of the three writers of Beach House, and to her credit, it’s probably up there in the best episodes the show has produced. However, it’s too much of an ensemble work and doesn’t give her plenty of moments to shine. I guess she’s counting on the overall strength of the episode to get her high rankings from the panel, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to take home the trophy.

But then again, most of these talks are moot since it’s Julia Louis Dreyfus’ world, and we’re all just living in it (and deservedly so). For her role as Vice President Selina Meyer in Veep, not only does Julia and her team know how to play the game, they’re even running the game at this point. Her submitted episode, Crate, showed a gamut of emotions when news is delivered to Selina about her presidency dreams. This happens after she was already down and lashed out to her team for being ineffective. It also doesn’t hurt that Veep is now in an upward trajectory at the Emmys garnering a writing nomination and a fourth acting one for the acting team. Julia’s domination the past few years is on an all level high, and this will definitely be one of the easier calls of the night.

At this point, I don’t know if “people sick of Julia” is existent. I mean Helen Hunt won 4 consecutive times and Candice Bergen won five times in a seven year span. Besides, after 12 different winners for 12 different years from 2001-2012, we’re bound for some repeat wins again here….at least for this year. What’s probably the most exciting thing about this more than the race is what Julia’s speech will be like this year. I mean the expectations are high after the speech mishap in 2012 and bringing Tony Hale with her last year no?

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
Alternate: 
Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly

Full Rankings:
01. Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
02. Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly
03. Taylor Schilling, “Orange is the New Black
04. Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation
05. Lena Dunham, “Girls
06. Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Comedy Lead Actor

And we’re off to the last week of our Emmy analysis coverage here at Tit for Tat. With only six remaining categories left, let’s begin analyzing the lead acting races this week and start with the comedic actors to figure out if Jim Parsons can tie that record of most number of wins in this category, or if Louis C.K can add an acting Emmy to his mantle, if Shameless‘ switch to comedy genre is fruitful, and if Matt LeBlanc be the third Friend to be an Emmy winner.

Now on his third consecutive nomination, Don Cheadle still is aiming for his first career Emmy win. This year, for House of Lies, he opted with the season opener entitled “Wreckage“, his character dealt with his company decision and his confusing romance with co-worker Jeannie. There’s a scene in the middle of the episode where he talks directly to the audience while everything else is frozen. They also touched some relationship issues between him and his son. personally speaking, I’ve don’t dig House of Lies‘ humor, but I don’t think even that will affect when I say I don’t think Cheadle is winning.

After four seasons, 2x Emmy winner William H. Macy manages to get his first ever acting nomination for Shameless, thanks to their shift from the drama to the comedy category. However, it could not have come to a more awkward season since this was the show’s most dramatic season by far. In his submission “Lazarus“, Frank adjusts from the aftermath of his liver transplant surgery. While both his daughter and his new wife battle over custody, his son takes him out to Chicago where he gave him a bottle of whiskey after learning he can’t drink anymore. This is the most dramatic episode of the bunch and a stand out literally among all these comedic fares. He also has a monologue at the end, though prior to that, there’s nothing much worthy to see in his hour-long episode.

For his fourth nod in a row, Louis C.K has submitted “Model” which is a different approach from his usual submissions. This is arguably his funniest submission by far. The first half of the episode had him doing a flop opening for Jerry Seinfeld in a charity event. While his jokes aren’t really funny, it provides the opposite effect to the viewers who find the unfortunate moment hilarious. The latter part of the episode is the more humorous one when he leaves with a model and they had the unfortunate sex incident of him accidentally punching her. While this is a competitive submission from Louis C.K, there is still an existing bias regarding the type of this comedy in this category as proven by the no Emmy acting wins for Jerry Seinfeld and Larry David, and I don’t think this will change any time soon.

Since that upset win he did in 2007, Ricky Gervais is back to provide he’s no fluke, as he’s now nominated for the Netflix show Derek. He submitted the second season finale where in he tries to learn how to ride a bicycle, goes on a date, and deals with his father’s condition. In it, Gervais displays the perfect Emmy winning recipe of having range, impact, laughs, screentime, and empathy. The only con I can see his way is that if voters aren’t really digging his character or if they find the acting really off in it. That said, there’s a real possibility that he’d go 2/2 in this category this year.

At this point, 3x Emmy champ Jim Parsons probably knows that his ticket to an Emmy is by Sheldon getting drunk as proven by his two Emmy winning Emmy submissions. Does it really come in threes? Well in his episode “The Relationship Diremption“, Sheldon deals with some sort of a life crisis and attempts to change some perspectives in it unintentionally including getting drunk with Penny. We then see the after effects of such with all the crazy things he has done the night before. This follows the same prototype of his winning submissions, so it isn’t much of a stretch to say that he can be rewarded again for it.

And lastly we have Matt Leblanc in his third nomination for Episodes. In Episode 306, we witness Matt (playing himself the actor) ranting about the British invasion in Hollywood after losing a coveted role to one. This follows to him seeing a young hot girl on set and had a sexual intercourse with her only to find out who that girl was. The bit about the British invasion hits too close to home that I can see it garnering him some votes. It also helps him that there’s a Friends reference in the middle of the episode where he mentions his famous catchphrase “How you doin?” Leblanc has been nominated six times in this category now (three each for Friends and Episodes) and if voters are in a rewarding mood, then he might just luck this year.

I’ve always had a spotty record here the past few years. The one time that I predicted Jim Parsons was the year he lost to Jon Cryer. The three times that he did though, I predicted Larry David, Steve Carell, and Alec Baldwin respectively. So I highly advise you do the opposite this time around. But then again, we’re talking about a historic tying an Emmy record fourth win here, and with Big Bang Theory still having three seasons left of it, are they really rushing to give Parsons a fourth one? I’m inclined to think no; thus, I’m going with Ricky Gervais. He managed to pull off the upset in 2007, I’d say with his tape this year, he can achieve the same feat. If not him, then this somewhat weak of a category can be ripe for a Matt LeBlanc overdue upset.

Prediction: Ricky Gervais, “Derek
Alternate: Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes

Full Rankings:
01. Ricky Gervais, “Derek
02. Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes
03. Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory
04. Louis C.K, “Louie
05. William H. Macy, “Shameless
06. Don Cheadle, “House of Lies

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Directing in a Drama and Comedy Series   Leave a comment

As we lead to the final six days of our Emmy analysis coverage here, we move on to the two Directing categories for this year.

Emmy Comedy Directing

For the comedy category Silicon Valley went with the pilot of the show which is always the safe bet for some sort of a recognition. That was obvious this year as it lead them to a nomination, but with almost no buzz for it, I think the nomination is the reward this time. Louis C.K continues his streak of nominations as well, and this year he chose the finale of his six part Elevator episode. I can see this being some sort of a dark horse in this category given that his direction was a standout here. I think we just have to accept from hereon that Glee will get a mention here (though we only have one season left!). To be fair, this wasn’t as random as last year since it’s one of their two event episodes of the season (the other being The Quarterback) and had Paris Barclay at the helm so this should have been given already. Episodes is the first episode that voters will check in its reel, and with this surprise nomination, I think it’s really well deserved. There’s a lot of obvious direction at play in this episode and while I don’t think it’ll win, it can be one who’ll find itself in the middle rankings a lot. I see this race as a two woman race (hurray!). On the left corner, we have current champ Gail Mancuso in Modern Family’s Las Vegas which is the most “obvious” showcase of direction here. It also doesn’t hurt that it’s one of the season’s best episode with the direction at the forefront. It’s some sort of a homage to the classic Frasier episode The Ski Trip. But then we also have Jodie friggin Foster for Orange is the New Black’s most emotional episode of its pilot season. I mean I could already really stop with the name recognition as I think it’ll be in play here; thus I’m going with it. But really, don’t be surprised if Modern Family wins its fourth consecutive direction nod since it’ll be more deserved than its last two wins in this category.

Prediction: Orange is the New Black, “Lesbian Request Denied
Alternate: Modern Family, “Las Vegas

Full Rankings:
01. Orange is the New Black, “Lesbian Request Denied
02. Modern Family, “Las Vegas
03. Louie, “Elevator Part 6
04. Silicon Valley, “Minimum Viable Product
05. Episodes, “Episode Nine
06. Glee, “100

Emmy Drama Directing

As for the drama side, let’s begin with Downton Abbey‘s season almost two hour season opener. In the tradition of its usual one episode for season submission, the show really knows what episode it has to submit, and that’s the reason why it’s on its third nomination in this category. Sadly for them, I think they’ll have the same fate as their last two tries. Meanwhile, Boardwalk Empire continues its hold in this category by getting its fifth nomination here in a span of four seasons. This year, they’ve submitted the season finale Farewell Daddy Blues. Remember when the show pulled off that upset two years ago? While I don’t see them repeating that this year, it’s really unwise to discount the show’s chances overall. Chapter 14 of House of Cards is nominated for both its writing and directing which is quite of a surprise, but between the two, directing is where its more obvious since that talked about scene in the episode is as showy as one can get. After all, they are the current champ in this category so there’s that in play. After two years of snubbing here, Game of Thrones finally gets its second directing nod for The Watchers on the Wall. While there is no denying of the show’s directorial achievement, its last two years of snubs quite indicate that they really aren’t over the moon about the show’s direction, and I think that affects its chances. And like in writing, I guess this will be between Breaking Bad and True Detective. The former is hoping for its first win here after five chances with their finale helmed by the show creator and 2x nominee in this category, Vince Gilligan. However, True Detective has the most talked about shot this year with its seven minute long tracking shot at the end of the episode. I don’t know if we can call this a lock, but I’d say that’s more than enough to declare Cary Fukunaga the victor here.

Prediction: True Detective, “Who Goes There
Alternate: Breaking Bad, “Felina

Full Rankings:
01. True Detective, “Who Goes There
02. Breaking Bad, “Felina
03. Boardwalk Empire, “Farewell Daddy Blues
04. Game of Thrones, “The Watchers on the Wall
05. House of Cards, “Chapter 14
06. Downton Abbey, “Episode One

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Writing in a Drama and Comedy Series   Leave a comment

After the supporting categories the past week and before we move on to the lead acting next week, let’s take a break in between and cover both the writing and directing categories. First up, the pen owners a.k.a the writers get the spotlight today as we tackle the two major writing categories. 

Emmy Comedy Writing

Louis CK was the frontrunner in this category for a long time now, but it seemed like So Did the Fat Lady lost quite its buzz after Sarah Baker’s exclusion in the Guest Actress category and from Louie’s six episode submission this year. While I don’t think it’s necessarily wise to exclude Louis CK here especially after his win two years ago, he’s no sure thing either. Silicon Valley manages to get in for its season finale with the very witty masturbation joke but I think this type of cool jokes doesn’t end with wins but simply with nominations (see: Community’s nod two years ago). Episodes seem to have its core fans in the writing branch as it’s 3/3 so far getting in here for all its eligible season. Thus, I won’t be surprised if they suddenly give it a win. But then again, maybe it’s just a show they love to nominate and not give wins with. After submitting a lot this year, predicting Veep for either writing or directing seemed unwise, but the fact that they manage to nab one here indicates a really strong support for the show. Lastly, pilots are like instant Emmy baits for writers, and Orange is the New Black’s lauded series opener is very much a spoiler here. If they really love the show, I won’t be shocked if this gets carried to a win as well But for now, I’m leaning on the hip semi-Emmy favorite who’s on an onward trajectory with Emmy love so I’m going with Veep’s “Special Relationship to win.

Prediction: Veep, “Special Relationship
Alternate: Orange is the New Black, “I Wasn’t Ready

Full Rankings:
01. Veep, “Special Relationship
02. Orange is the New Black, “I Wasn’t Ready
03. Louie, “So Did the Fat Lady
04. Silicon Valley, “Optical Tip-to-Tip Efficiency
05. Episodes, “Episode Five

Emmy Drama Writing

As for their dramatic counterpart, it’s such a surprise to find out that Breaking Bad hasn’t won in this category yet, but they have two contenders here to change their fate. First, they have Ozymandias which is probably the most lauded episode in the show’s history and such a tour de force hour in television. And then, they also have the series finale Felina written by Vince Gilligan. In the same manner that series pilots are very baity to reward, the same can be said for series finales (see: Friday Night Light’s upset win here for its finale in 2011). While it seems more logical that they get rewarded for their direction, Game of Thrones continue to rake in nomination for its writing instead. The season finale The Children is their nominated episode this year; however, if their previous event episodes the past season like Baelor and The Rains of Castamere wasn’t able to factor in, I don’t think it will be any different this year. True Detective only is eligible for one episode this year, but they managed to submit their best written episode, and if voters don’t really like to reward Breaking Bad here, I think this is the show that will benefit from that the most. To complete the nominees, we have the season opener of House of Cards which contained a big shocker in the middle of the episode. In the end, I think we’re bound to see a Breaking Bad writing win in play, so it’s between its two nominated episodes already. While Ozymandias is the more popular choice among the internet community, I don’t think they can resist the chance of awarding showrunner Vince Gilligan an Emmy here, so I say Felina wins in the end.

Prediction: Breaking Bad, “Felina
Alternate: Breaking Bad, “Ozymandias

Full Rankings:
01. Breaking Bad, “Felina
02. Breaking Bad, “Ozymandias
03. True Detective, “The Secret Fate of All Life
04. House of Cards, “Chapter 14
05. Game of Thrones, “The Children

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Comedy Supp Actor

And now to complete the quartet of the supporting acting categories for regular series, let’s do the supporting actor category with another less Modern Family guy in contention but another Andre Braugher nominated performance.

So we begin with Andre Braugher who is one of the few things the Emmys liked about Brooklyn Nine Nine. While it was expected that he’ll submit the event episode for this year, he only got half of that right as he had Christmas as his submission. In it, his character Ray Holt received death threats and thus, he was assisted by Jake Peralta for protection. That means he was with Andy Samberg the whole of his episode submission. On one hand, it’s great since he was in full character of his strict uptight character, but on the other, it was Samberg who was doing most of the comedic scenes in it. While I don’t think he’s completely out, things would have been more different had he submitted The Party or Full Boyle.

While Bill Hader moves out of the race after his Saturday Night Live departure last year, it was a co-SNL actor who replaces him only that it’s not for the same show. Fred Armisen gets in this year as the lead character in his own produced show Portlandia, where he went on to submit Pull Out King. Unlike SNL. this show runs for only 21 minutes and Armisen si the lead of this show so he doesn’t get overshadowed in it. Only that he actually was by co-star Carrie Brownstein. Even the title of the episode refers to her impersonation, and while Armisen does some great improvs in it, the bias against variety performers to win here is pretty much present and can always be taken against him. I don’t know if this will be the performance that will end such, though I’m leaning to no.

After his surprise nomination last year, Adam Driver picks up a consecutive one despite the almost Girls shutout this year. And while he has a winning submission in Role-play, he opted to go with the season finale which was Two Plane Rides. This begs the question again of submitting the better episode or the better showcase. While Rides was an altogether better episode than Role-play, the latter was the better acting showcase for him. In the finale, he only appeared in three speaking scenes and he even came across as unlikable in them. That said, Driver is one of the current TV it boys nowadays that his involvement in large film projects can probably get some votes his way.

Last year, he pulled off an upset win, but the question is can Tony Hale pull off a repeat? It’s quite odd that this performance is in the running for a 2x Emmy winning one since this isn’t really like one, but with his submission Crate, the odds are actually on his favor. There’s a scene in the episode when Selina Meyer confessed to Hale’s Gary that she will officially be the next president, and Hale displayed a range of emotions in just a single scene. That is clearly the highlight of the episode and Hale was unstoppable there. That said, there’s quite a feeling of a been there done that with his role and since he was already rewarded last year, there’s also a chance they might look somewhere.

And that somewhere might just be 2011 champ Ty Burrell. After being the only person to dethrone Alec Baldwin at the SAG earlier this year, Burrell aims for a second win this year with his episode Spring a Fling Ding where he hosted the annual realtors’ Oscars. This included him donning up a female get up and performing a song number to the audience. The con of this episode is that he wasn’t much featured outside it even if his storyline closes with an “aww” moment. He also benefits in Ferguson’s episode where he thought Claire was pregnant again though that also provided more “aww” and less “haha” for him.

Now who would have thought that among six cast members of Modern FamilyJesse Tyler Ferguson would be one of the three remaining adult cast to get nominated every season by far? And even if  he hasn’t won any yet, the fact that he keeps on getting nominated means he has the support from the TV Academy. This year, he submits one of the most lauded episodes of the season via Message Received when he had an argument with his dad regarding their impending wedding and how it was difficult for Jay to still accept his sexuality. It’s really a heartbreaking episode and one that has lots of impact. And on Burrell’s episode, he goes on the classic first day at work storyline and how he’s dealing with someone who’s not the friendliest of them bosses.

This is really a tricky category to be honest. I had Tony Hale in front but he’s vulnerable at most. After all, he really doesn’t strike me as a 2x winner for this role nor a really far and away frontrunner. While he is not totally out, there’s a lot of ifs that need to happen for Andre Braugher to win here, and had he only submitted a stronger tape, he can easily be the frontrunner status. It’s really not wise to dismiss both Modern Family  here. I mean sure it lost acting nominees here, but the show is still every inch competitive and Burrell is the type I can see winning multiple Emmys so he can easily win in a weak year like this. And in his five years of getting nominated, this is the first time Jesse Tyler Ferguson came close to winning. I never bought his chances in the past, but him continuing to get in plus competitive tapes makes him in the upper tier easily. I guess in the event of an unknown race like this, there’s only two paths it can head: stay with the current winner or get an out of the box win. Let’s just say I’m gonna go the safe road and predict #2 for Tony Hale instead.

Prediction: Tony Hale, “Veep
Alternate: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family

Full Rankings:
01. Tony Hale, “Veep
02. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family
03. Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
04. Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine
05. Adam Driver, “Girls
06. Fred Armisen, “Portlandia

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series   1 comment

Emmy Drama Supp Actor

After assessing the races for both supporting actress in a drama and comedy series, we now move on to the guys and predict one of this year’s toughest acting categories. This year, once again, is no exception as there is no sure contender to win this one. Let’s now go over their chances one by one.

Despite the Homeland shutout, Mandy Patinkin manages to stay for another season of a nomination. This year, he submitted “Gerontion”, it showed two sides of Saul: the first one as the fierce competent team player of the CIA and the other as a devoted husband to his wife. Patinkin’s tape, while totally not a showstopper, is really good, but in a competitive race like this, tape alone won’t bring you any close to a win. After all, it seems like he’s not much of an Emmy darling lately missing a nod for the show’s first season and losing last year when he’s a frontrunner. This year, I think his nomination is his reward.

Doing a comeback after his first and only nod three years ago, Josh Charles final season on The Good Wife is one of the most buzzed characters of the past TV season. That said, he avoided that storyline altogether and submitted what is considered as the best episode the show has ever done. In Hitting the Fan, Will discovered that Alicia and Cary are starting their own firm and taking away some of their big clients which caused ruckus in the whole office. While most episodes usually end up with something shocking in their submissions, Charles does the opposite by starting it with one. Literally, the first dozen minutes or so of the episode is a highlight for him, and I think this will appeal well to the voters.

Downton Abbey continues to show its strength to its voters via Jim Carter‘s third consecutive nomination. And while the last two years haven’t been really competitive for him, this year marked his first real great submission via Episode 1 of the fourth season. In this almost two hour episode, we see him deal with a significant person from his past, his former song-and dance partner Mr. Grick, whom he had a falling out with. And in true old movie film fashion, the reason for such was a love triangle. Of course, things were patched up in the end via an emotional trains station meet up. I’m inclined to think that in a weaker year, Carter would have stood a chance of even winning for this stuff. Unfortunately for him, this is one of the most competitive ones in recent years, and while I don’t dismiss his chances altogether, he’s lurking on the outside in terms of Emmy talk.

Winning the Golden Globe earlier this year is Ray Donovan‘s Jon Voight. With the chance of him earning his first Emmy, he submits Fite Nite which had him in most of the episode in cuffs. This is an intense episode where both he and guest star Rossana Arquette were tied and a hitman deciding their fate. This ends up with a death of a character and the revelations before that mentioned death, and Voight goes on a gamut of emotions in it. There’s also a certain level of physicality in lay as he’s being tied in the most crucial scenes of the episode. While Ray Donovan clearly wasn’t embraced by Emmys, his status as a Hollywood veteran might make up for that.

2011 champ Peter Dinklage aims to win his second Emmy for his role as Tyrion Lannister after winning for the show’s first season. In one of the most acclaimed episodes of the season, he chose the to submit The Laws of God and Men which had his trial after being accused as responsible for the death of King Joffrey in the prior episode. Nothing says Emmy bait like a trial, and here, Dinklage was indeed exceptional. He goes on a speech before the episode ends especially after his lover was used as a witness against him. That said, his first appearance comes within the last 20 minutes of the episode and that’s too much for voters with short patience.

Lastly, aiming to be the most rewarded actor in the history of this category, Aaron Paul is in hunt for a historic third win here for Breaking Bad. And he’s surely in the hunt again with his episode submission Confessions. After being grilled by hank about his involvement in all the drug trafficking in their place, Saul bailed him and gave him a new identity. But this did not sit well with him, as he ran amok and attacked him before going to Walt’s house. Talk about intense, the last 10 minutes of the episode is acting with a capital A for Aaron who’s loud and showy acting is really present. This can go well or not with the voters, and while no other actor has won twice before, it was Paul who managed to defeat the no repeat winner record in this category for 15 years. So if there’s one who can break another record, it’s probably him.

Like what I said, this is really a difficult category as a lot of these actors make sense and all of them would have been frontrunners or automatic winners in any other year. While I won’t be surprised if Dinklage wins, I’m putting him at fourth here. I think his tape is great, but the lack of appearance during half of the tape will affect him. I’m putting Voight at third because it’s a very Emmy thing to reward him in a crowd like this. Plus, the reasons I mentioned above. I think it’s a choice between Charles and Paul and while both of them are on their last possible nominations for their respective roles, 2 Emmy wins for Paul in the past as compared to none for Charles will seal the deal here. Thus, I’m going with Josh Charles for the win.

Prediction: Josh Charles, “The Good Wife
Alternate: Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad

Full Rankings:
01. Josh Charles, “The Good Wife
02. Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
03. Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan
04. Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
05. Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey
06. Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

 

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