87th Oscars Predictions: September Edition   5 comments

After skipping last month to pave the way for the Emmys, the monthly Oscar predictions are back (and with a new look to boot!). Now that festivals are coming one after the other (Telluride and Toronto have already started) and New York and AFI will soon come ahead of us, it’s time to clear the air on a lot of these contenders! I’ve also started to predict the rest of the categories (except Song, Foreign Language Film, and Documentary because duh, we need a shortlist for those). Anyway, here we go with the September batch of predictions!

*You can click the photos to read the write-ups in full (especially in the Best Picture category)

best picture

best director

best actor

best actress

best supporting actor

best supporting actress

Screenplay

Techs 1

Techs 2

Techs 3
Current tally of nominations:

9 – Birdman, Gone Girl, Interstellar
7 – Selma
6 – Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Unbroken, The Imitation Game
5 – Into the Woods
2 – Wild, Big Eyes, Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Mr. Turner, Godzilla, The Hobbit, Fury

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

87th Oscar Foreign Language Film: What Should the Philippines Submit?   8 comments

Within the next few days, the Film Academy of the Philippines will release the shortlist for the country’s Oscar submission in the Foreign Language Film category, and it has been a tradition over here at Tit for Tat to dissect and analyze the shortlist of what the Philippines will submit as its entry. As you may know, the country still hasn’t been nominated for the said award despite submitting 25 times in the award’s 57-year history. Before we go straight to the discussion, let’s specify the necessary requirements to be eligible for this award:

As per the Academy of Motion Arts and Pictures Science’s official rule book, any country’s submission must be:

The motion picture must be first released in the country submitting it no earlier than October 1, 2013,
and no later than September 30, 2014, and be first publicly exhibited for at least seven consecutive
days in a commercial motion picture theater for the profit of the producer and exhibitor.

As a reminder, these are my predictions and opinions on what I think will make the shortlist and NOT THE OFFICIAL SHORTLIST YET. In order to determine which will make the shortlist, I have divided the list into three groups:

FRONTRUNNERS:

Alagwa

ALAGWA (Breakaway)
Director: Ian Loreños
Screenplay: Ian Loreños
Cast: Jericho Rosales, Bugoy Cariño, Leo Martinez, Carmen Soo, Smokey Manaloto
Philippine Release Date: October 2, 2013

This local thriller which was inspired by an urban legend about the disappearance of a young Chinese-boy and the lengths his single father did in order to find him back.

Despite the film being produced and finished as early as 2012, Alagwa was able to land its local commercial screening October of last year. The film garnered good reviews with mentions about its balance of intense thriller with the emotional punches in between. It has also made its way to some international festivals, albeit the smaller ones, such as the Tallin Black Film Festival, Newport Beach Film Festival, Guam International Film Festival, and ASEAN International Film Festival to name a few. Not to be outdone, it was also recognized locally sweeping at the PMPC Star Awards for Movies including Indie Movie of the Year and a Gawad Urian Best Actor for lead star Jericho Rosales. While I think the film can be a good submission, it needs a bigger push than our last two entries to maintain buzz once the bigger heavyweight countries announced theirs.

Barber's Tales

MGA KUWENTONG BARBERO (Barber’s Tales)
Director: Jun Lana
Screenplay: Jun Lana
Cast: Eugene Domingo, Shamaine Buencamino, Gladys Reyes, Iza Calzado, Nicco Manalo
Philippine Release Date: August 13, 2014

Set in 1975, widow Marilou (Domingo) continues the business of her late husband as the female barber in their town. This opened to her being involved with the different issues in her town including that of the mayor’s wife.

The film, which premiered at the Tokyo International Film Festival late last year, gave Eugene Domingo a Best Actress victory over there which followed nominations from the Asian Film Awards and participation at the Hong Kong International Film Festival and Udine Far East Film Festival. It also has some sort of good will since this team already has some sort of Oscar submission experience since Domingo was the star of the county’s 2011 submission Ang Babae sa Septic Tank while director Jun Lana is the director of the 2012 submission Bwakaw. The film also boasts of great technical achievement and a story that is universally appealing but still has distinct Filipino touches. I won’t be surprised if this ends up as the country’s submission in the end.

Mula sa Kung Ano Ang Noon

MULA SA KUNG ANO ANG NOON (From What is Before)
Director: Lav Diaz
Screenplay: Lav Diaz
Cast: Perry Dizon, Roeder, Hazel Orencio, Karenina Haniel, Mailes Kanapi
Philippine Release Date: September 24, 2014

Running for 338 minute, this black and white film leads to the two years before Martial Law was proclaimed in the Philippines.

If anything, the film is earning so much good will after that sweep at the Locarno International Film Festival winning four awards(!) and the Boccalino de Oro Independent Critics Award Best Actress win for its star Hazel Orencio. Prior to that, the film was also the pioneer champ of the newly established World Premieres Film Festival taking both the Best Ensemble and the Grand Festival Prize. Ir has to be said though that the length of the film plus its black and white feature might be too alienating to sit through for this small Foreign Language Film committee. This isn’t a knock on the film’s accomplishment but more on the category we’re sending it to. The Oscar is as “mainstream” and “accessible”  as one can get in terms of recognizing films, so that might give the FAP some second thoughts if they’re gonna go with this.

Norte

NORTE, HANGGANAN NG KASAYSAYAN (Norte, The End of History)
Director: Lav Diaz
Screenplay: Lav Diaz, Rody Vera
Cast: Sid Lucero, Angeli Bayani, Archie Alemania,
Philippine Release Date: September 10, 2014

A take on the Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s “Crime and Punishment”, the film showed the story of  three people: an innocent man being put to jail of a crime he did not commit, the real perpetrator guilty of the crime is very much free and continuously frustrated of his country’s political system, and the wife of the wrongly accused man dealing with everything that has happened to her family.

The shorter of the two Lav Diaz films, Norte runs at a measly 250 minutes. While it’s still relatively long, comments about this as being Diaz’ most accessible film is definitely encouraging. It also has the festival experience as well competing as part of the Un Certain Regard section of last year’s Cannes Film Fest and getting raves after raves as well. It also helps that the film has been released, despite via limited format, in the United States and getting great mentions there as well. Locally, the film has garnered many acclaims here as well even sweeping at this year’s Gawad Urian awards. I think this is the type of film that can benefit from the short committee’s three picks outside of the top vote getters.

POTENTIAL SHORT LIST MENTIONS:

Shortlist mentions

Of course the shortlist can go as many as 12 like that from 2009 or as few as 2 like that in 2006. Since the past few years’ shortlist have given us WTF mentions (remember Baler in 2009? How about The Witness three years ago? Or Dance of the Steelbars last year?), so I guess these films can find their way in the shortlist this year.

10,000 HOURS
Director: Joyce Bernal
Screenplay: Ryllah Epifania Berico, Keiko Aquino
Cast: Robin Padilla, Pen Medina, Bela Padilla, Michael de Mesa, Mylene Dizon
Philippine Release Date: December 25, 2013

Sweeping last year’s Metro Manila Film Festival, this action thriller which was very loosely based on a Philippine senator’s fugitive story. While the possibility of this being chosen is slim to none, I wouldn’t underestimate this being a part of the short list.

BANG BANG ALLEY
Director: Ely Buendia, Yan Yuzon, King Palisoc
Screenplay: Ely Buendia, Yan Yuzon, Zig Marasigan
Cast: Art Acuña, Perla Bautista, Gabe Mercado, Bela Padilla, Jimmy Santos, Joel Torre, Althea Vega, Megan Young
Philippine Release Date: April 9, 2014

Last year, the trilogy Tuhog also made the shortlist, so I don’t see why they’ll skip this a mention since this is one of the better reviewed films of the first quarter of 2014. The film featured three different stories all relating to violence.

BOY GOLDEN
Director: Chito Roño
Screenplay: Catherine Camarillo, Guelan Luarca, E.R. Ejercito
Cast: ER Ejercito, KC Concepcion, Eddie Garcia, John Estrada, Gloria Sevilla
Philippine Release Date: December 25, 2013

To be honest, this is the best of the three ER Ejercito MMFF films, but then again, that doesn’t mean it needs to be submitted. This is more of a guilty pleasure action flick than an Oscar contender, but hey! If those two films were shortlisted, then this better be mentioned as well.

KAMKAM (GREED)
Director: Joel Lamangan
Screenplay: Jerry Gracio
Cast: Allen Dizon, Jean Garcia, Sunshine Dizon, Jackie Rice
Philippine Release Date: July 9, 2014

Lamangan has been shortlisted many times before (Dukot, Sagrada Familia) so he’s a familiar name from the FAP. That said, this is another of the socio-political statements that he has been doing lately about a powerful man in the slums balancing his power and dealing with his three wives.

PEDRO CALUNGSOD: BATANG MARTIR
Director: Francis Villacorta
Screenplay: Francis Villacorta
Cast: Rocco Nacino, Christian Vazquez, Jestoni Alarcon, Marc Justin Alvarez, Ryan Eigenmann
Philippine Release Date: December 25, 2013

Really though. As if the flop box office nor bad reviews would stop them from considering this, but it’s the story of the Filipino saint, so I’m expecting the worst and see this in the shortlist even if it doesn’t really merit a mention at all.

UNFRIEND
Director: Joselito Altarejos
Screenplay: Zig Dulay
Cast: Allen Sandino Martin, Angelo Ilagan, Boots Anson-Roa
Philippine Release Date: February 26, 2014

An ordinary day in the life of a 15 year old teen upon learning that the love of his life loves someone else and his intense reaction to profess his love.

Pink films haven’t done so well the past few years (even Blue is the Warmest Color did not make a splash), and I don’t even remember the last one to get nominated (at the top of my head, All About My Mother? Unsure though), and this is too low key to seriously be considered.

ELIGIBILITY ISSUES

Ineligible

While these films least worry is their quality, it seems like eligibility would prevent them from being shortlisted. Chito Rono’s Badil among the other Sineng Pambansa entries were released September of last year so they’re not eligible. The same can be said for Ang Huling Chacha ni Anita and the Cinefilipino entries as well. Borgy Torres’ Kabisera got an extended day of release after the Cinema One Originals last year, but that doesn’t fit the seven day commercial screening. And among the MMFF New Wave entries last year (including Armando Lao’s Dukit, only Gino Santos & Aloy Adlawan’s Island Dreams managed to follow it up with a commercial release. Jerrold Tarog’s Sana Dati‘s commercial release was September 25, 2013 so six out of its seven commercial release dates were ineligible as well. Perci Intalan’s Dementia starring the Superstar Nora Aunor is a tricky case. It premieres last week of September which means it qualifies for this year, but the FAP usually announces its pick by mid-September, so unless they got a special screening to see it, then I think it’s still possible to make it to the list. Otherwise, by the time we see Dementia in theaters, there’s a large chance there’s an announcement made already.

FINAL VERDICT

I think it boils down to two films: Jun Lana’s Barber’s Tales and Lav Diaz’ Norte, Hangganan ng Kasaysayan. And both films I see can possibly make a splash. Diaz has the good will and the name recognition plus Norte’s reviews will surely make it in the conversation against other countries’ entries. Barber’s Tales, on the other hand, seems like the more traditional entry, and Bwakaw managed to gain steam during its year (and I think the closest we ever was mentioned since Ang Pagdadalaga ni Maximo Oliveros in 2005) so it would be a fit as well. Anything between the two would be fine by me, so I do hope we end up with one of those. Come on FAP, make it happen.

Either way, I’ll keep you updated once the official shortlist and the official submission is revealed.

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

Tit for Tat Video Music Awards 2014   Leave a comment

Now that the MTV has awarded of what it thought was the best of music video this year, it’s time to reveal my choices for my own Video Music Awards. I have been doing this since ’99, and this is the first year where I mustered enough time and effort to do mine.  My eligibility period for a given year is July 1 of the previous year up to June 30 of the current year to make it to to any given year’s awards. Unlike MTV, I also have more categories to spare. Ready? I now present my picks in all 20 categories of my Titties(!!!) Video Music Awards (TVMAs) for 2014! Let’s begin!

*Clicking the photo will lead you to the winning music video of the category.

Directing

Visual Effects

Hair and Make Up

Editing

Costumes

Choregraphy

Cinematography

Art Direction

Collaboration

Country Video

Rock Video

Rap Video

Dance Video

RnB Video

Pop Video

New Artist in a Video

Group Video

Male Video

Female Video

Video of the Year

As a recap, here are the winners of the 2014 TVMAs:

VIDEO OF THE YEAR: Miley Cyrus, “Wrecking Ball
MALE VIDEO: Jack White, “Lazaretto
FEMALE VIDEO: Miley Cyrus, “Wrecking Ball
GROUP VIDEO: Arcade Fire, “Reflektor
NEW ARTIST IN A VIDEO: Steve Grand, “All American Boy
POP VIDEO: Miley Cyrus, “Wrecking Ball”
R&B VIDEO: Beyonce, “Pretty Hurts
DANCE VIDEO: DJ Snake, Lil Jon, “Turn Down for What
RAP VIDEO: Kanye West, “Black Skinhead
ROCK VIDEO: Arcade Fire, “Reflektor
COUNTRY VIDEO: Steve Grand, “All American Boy
COLLABORATION IN A VIDEO: Iggy Azalea, Charli XCX, “Fancy
ART DIRECTION IN A VIDEO: Katy Perry, “Unconditionally
CHOREOGRAPHY IN A VIDEO: Sia, “Chandelier
CINEMATOGRAPHY IN A VIDEO: 30 Seconds to Mars, “City of Angels
COSTUMES IN A VIDEO: Beyonce, “Partition
EDITING IN A VIDEO: Zedd ft. Hayley Williams, “Stay the Night
HAIR AND MAKE UP IN A VIDEO: Lady Gaga, “Applause
VISUAL EFEFCTS IN A VIDEO: DJ Snake, Lil Jon, “Turn Down for What
DIRECTION IN A VIDEO: Arcade Fire, “Reflektor

And there you have it! Until next year’s music video mania! :)

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions: How Did I Do?   4 comments

By now, the Emmy Awards are over. Bryan Cranston and Julia Louis Dreyfus have KISSED, Julia Roberts has reminisced her Oscar loss to Kathy Bates in 1991, Julianna Margulies shaded cable television, and Benedict Cumberbatch has won one of the EGOT (ick). But after a month long analysis of almost all categories and lumping them up here, how did I fare? Given it’s the Emmys, I say I did well. Though the “alternate” curse has struck me in more ways than one this year, I say I gave myself a pat on the back for doing good enough and even tied for first place (YASSS!) for Awards Watch’ Emmy experts. In a snap, here’s how exactly I performed in predicting the “best” of TV this year.

*the prediction ranking s where I ranked them in terms of winning likelihood in my analysis
** You can click he images to make them larger!

Comedy

Drama

 

Longform

Realiy and Variety

 

Like what I said, given the unpredictability of the Emmys, I’m definitely good with my performance this year. I only had two total fail predictions (Benedict Cumberbatch and “Buridan’s Ass” in Directing) and both are in fourth place. Until next year!

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

Posted August 26, 2014 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, TV

Tagged with ,

Final 66th Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions   Leave a comment

66th Emmy

Before the envelopes are opened tomorrow, here’s a recap of the month long Emmy analysis predictions I did here in this blog. Here are my complete predictions (with alternates) in 29 different categories:

*Clicking the category name will lead you to the comprehensive analysis of such

Drama SeriesBreaking Bad (AMC)
Alternate: True Detective (HBO)

Lead Actor, Drama Series: Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
Alternate: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad

Lead Actress, Drama Series: Lizzy Caplan, “Masters of Sex
Alternate: Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife

Supporting Actor, Drama Series: Josh Charles, “The Good Wife
Alternate: Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad

Supporting Actress, Drama Series: Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad
Alternate: Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife

Guest Actor, Drama Series: Reg E. Cathey, “House of Cards”
Alternate: Joe Morton, “Scandal“ (ACTUAL WINNER)

Guest Actress, Drama Series: Allison Janney, “Masters of Sex“ (ACTUAL WINNER)
Alternate: Kate Burton, “Scandal

Writing, Drama Series: Breaking Bad, “Felina
Alternate: Breaking Bad, “Ozymandias

Directing, Drama Series: True Detective, “Who Goes There
Alternate: Breaking Bad, “Felina

Comedy Series: “Orange is the New Black“ (Netflix)
Alternate: “Modern Family“ (ABC)

Lead Actor, Comedy Series: Ricky Gervais, “Derek
Alternate: Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes

Lead Actress, Comedy Series: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
Alternate: 
Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly

Supporting Actor, Comedy Series: Tony Hale, “Veep
Alternate: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family

Supporting Actress, Comedy Series: Allison Janney, “Mom
Alternate: Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black

Guest Actor, Comedy Series: Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory
Alternate: Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live“ (ACTUAL WINNER)

Guest Actress, Comedy Series: Laverne Cox, “Orange is the New Black
Alternate: Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black (ACTUAL WINNER)

Writing, Comedy Series: Veep, “Special Relationship
Alternate: Orange is the New Black, “I Wasn’t Ready

Directing, Comedy Series: Orange is the New Black, “Lesbian Request Denied
Alternate: 
Modern Family, “Las Vegas

TV Movie: The Normal Heart (HBO)
Alternate: Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS)

Miniseries: “Fargo“ (FX)
Alternate: American Horror Story: Coven“ (FX)

Lead Actor, Movie or Miniseries: Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart
Alternate: 
Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo

Lead Actress, Movie or Miniseries: Cicely Tyson, “The Trip to Bountiful
Alternate: Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Coven

Supporting Actor, Movie or Miniseries: Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart
Alternate: Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: His Last Vow

Supporting Actress, Movie or Miniseries: Allison Tolman, “Fargo
Alternate: Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Coven

Writing, Movie or Miniseries: Steven Moffat, “Sherlock: His Last Vow”
Alternate: Noah HawleyFargo (The Crocodile’s Dilemma)”

Directing, Movie or Miniseries: Colin Bucksey, “Fargo (The Crocodile’s Dilemma)”
Alternate: Nick Hurran, “Sherlock: His Last Vow

Reality/Competition Series: The Amazing Race
Alternate: The Voice

The Voice” really has the upperhand here, and it’s likely to win since it’s the current it show among reality competition programs. However, no show has won this twice aside from The Amazing Race, and its tape is really a classic TAR episode. That said, if there’s a show that will likely join Amazing Race here as a multiple winner, it would be the NBC singing show. I guess I’m going with personal preference on this one more than actual predicting skills since I LOVE that episode of The Amazing Race.

Variety Series: The Colbert Report
Alternate: Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon

Now that Colbert has finally managed to penetrate this category with a win after 10 years, I don’t think it’s a one time victory for them though. And while it has no bearing in this category, the show winning Writing gives me a bit of confidence. But then, Fallon has basically two episodes here since SNL submitted the Christmas episode hosted by Fallon. It’s gonna be a nailbiter even if I’m sticking with the current champ.

Reality/Competition Host: Jane Lynch, “Hollywood Game Night (ACTUAL WINNER)
Alternate: Tim Gunn and Heidi Klum, “Project Runway

There you have. Since it’s the Emmys we’re talking about, if there’s one thing they are consistent about, it’s the surprising winners. So when you feel complacent about one thing, expect the opposite to happen. I’m quite conflicted the most with Movie/Mini Lead Actor wanting to shift to Billy Bob Thornton from Mark Ruffalo and going back and forth between The Amazing Race and The Voice. Seems like all signs point to The Voice, but I badly want The Amazing Race to win. Ugh. Good luck to all predictors out there!

Also, I’ll be live tweeting the Emmys, so if you’d like to be updated, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

MTV Video Music Awards 2014 Winner Predictions   2 comments

Once labeled as the coolest night in music, the MTV Video Music Awards is the biggest party of the year. Well, it used to be that. But then it all went downhill since the late 2000s. But while the show is far from what it used to be, we still get glimpse of the classic VMA moments every now and then including Lady Gaga’s blood flowing (literally that is) performance in 2009 and Miley’s trashy teddy bear collaboration with Robin Thicke last year. And even if the number of categories get less over the years, we’ll try to predict the 10 major categories for this year and check who’ll end up with a moonman.

Video of the Year

VIDEO OF THE YEAR

Beyoncé ft. Jay Z, “Drunk In Love”
Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX, “Fancy”
Miley Cyrus, “Wrecking Ball”
Pharrell Williams, “Happy”
Sia, “Chandelier”

WHO WILL WIN: Since Beyonce is being awarded this year with the Michael Jackson Video Vanguard trophy, it makes sense to award her the top plum right? Especially since that’s what happened to last year’s recipient Justin Timberlake. But what I’ve been waiting is if MTV will announce Miley Cyrus’ appearance since that will seal the deal. And they did. Wrecking Ball is a pop culture phenomenon and its music video is for the ages. They’re not inviting Miley for nothing, so I bet she’ll win the top plum.
RUNNER UP: Well now it makes more sense to put Beyonce here as an alternate. Besides, only two people have won VotY twice (Eminem and Rihanna) and Drunk in Love is no We Found Love nor Without Me.
MY CHOICE: Wrecking Ball. It is the VIDEO OF THE YEAR regardless of what one think of Miley. ‘Nuff said.

Male Video

BEST MALE VIDEO

Ed Sheeran ft. Pharrell Williams, “Sing”
Eminem ft. Rihanna, “The Monster”
John Legend, “All of Me”
Pharrell Williams, “Happy”
Sam Smith, “Stay With Me”

WHO WILL WIN: The first two quarters of the year is all about Pharrell and Happy, so even if it’s video isn’t really anything special, he’s winning. Also, The Voice is coming weeks from now. That’s added promo.
RUNNER UP: Hmm. Maybe they’d throw Eminem a bone? Lord knows how the VMAs love Eminem.
MY CHOICE: None of these videos really strike out as ahead of the pack, though I’d probably go with Ed Sheeran’s puppet version of himself in Sing.

Female Video

BEST FEMALE VIDEO

Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea, “Problem”
Beyoncé, “Partition”
Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX, “Fancy”
Katy Perry ft. Juicy J, “Dark Horse”
Lorde, “Royals”

WHO WILL WIN: It’s quite funny and unfortunate that Katy Perry hasn’t won in this category yet when she has already won Video of the Year. She has been nominated here six time for the last seven years, but I still don’t think it would be this year. Had she been nominated for Roar, maybe she’d have better chances. Beyonce can easily include this in her sweep and while Partition is one of her best videos this era, the song itself isn’t really big. Add the fact that this category loves hip-hop women and reward them when they get the chance (except you Missy Elliott; damn you MTV) so the whole fun Clueless homage of Fancy leads me to predict Iggy Azalea here.
RUNNER UP: Beyonce. MTV probably thinks that if there’s one who can get the record of most wins in this category, it would be Madonna Beyonce.
MY CHOICE: This is quite a weak field. Where’s Miley?!?!? But I’m going with the flawlessness that is Beyonce in Partition.

Artist to Watch out For

ARTIST TO WATCH OUT FOR

5 Seconds of Summer, “She Looks So Perfect”
Charli XCX, “Boom Clap”
Fifth Harmony, “Miss Movin’ On”
Sam Smith, “Stay With Me”
Schoolboy Q, “Man of the Year”

WHO WILL WIN: 5 Seconds of Summer. Just look at the last three winners here in the past four years: Justin Bieber, One Direction, Austin Mahone. The thirst for twinks here is real.
RUNNER UP: Between Fancy and Fault in Our Stars, maybe Charli XCX can pull of an upset.
MY CHOICE: None of these videos are really amazing, so let me throw my vote to Sam Smith because why not?

Pop

POP VIDEO

Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea, “Problem”
Avicii ft. Aloe Blacc, “Wake Me Up”
Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX, “Fancy”
Jason Derulo ft. 2 Chainz, “Talk Dirty”
Pharrell Williams, “Happy”

WHO WILL WIN: This category seems poised for a Problem win here. It’s Ariana’s biggest shot for a moonman win.
RUNNER UP: Fancy. Either way, Iggy scores a win here!
MY CHOICE: The pop culture references in Fancy are enough for me to give it a vote here.

Rock Video

ROCK VIDEO

Arctic Monkeys, “Do I Wanna Know?”
The Black Keys, “Fever”
Imagine Dragons, “Demons”
Linkin Park, “Until It’s Gone”
Lorde, “Royals”

WHO WILL WIN: Lorde. She’s a presenter that night so it’s not as if they’ll be inviting her for nothing. Same template with Oscar winner Jared Leto doing presenter duties last year and winning here as well. Whether one considers her as a rock artist is debatable though.
RUNNER UP: Maybe Imagine Dragons. Demons is one of the biggest songs of the past year and Imagine Dragons seems to fit the bill of the young hip choice here.
MY CHOICE: The Black Keys. I love that video.

HipHop Video

HIP-HOP VIDEO

Childish Gambino, “3?05″
Drake ft. Majid Jordan, “Hold On (We’re Going Home)”
Eminem, “Berzerk”
Kanye West, “Black Skinhead”
Wiz Khalifa, “We Dem Boyz”

WHO WILL WIN: Drake is the most relevant current name here, and he has only won here once yet. Seems like he’ll be getting a second one.
RUNNER UP: Eminem. VMAs has a special hard on relationship with Eminem.  
MY CHOICE: Kanye West. He still hasn’t won here despite of being nominated nine times since 2004. Also, Black Skinhead shits on all the other videos here.

ClubBanger

MTV CLUBLAND AWARD

Calvin Harris, “Summer”
Disclosure, “Grab Her!”
DJ Snake & Lil Jon, “Turn Down For What”
Martin Garrix, “Animals”
Zedd ft. Hayley Williams, “Stay the Night”

WHO WILL WIN: This one is really tricky. In 2012, Calvin Harris is the house DJ of the VMAs that year, so it was quite easy to  predict that he’ll win. This year, the only one I can confidently eliminate is Martin Garrix. Disclosure has somehow made it big with their collaboration with Sam Smith, Summer is well one of summer’s hits, Turn Down for What has that magic penis video everyone is talking about and Zedd has been the hot (literally and figuratively) property lately. I’d say they spread the wealth and give it to Zedd since he’s performing as well.
RUNNER UP:  I go for Turn Down for What just because of that video.
MY CHOICE: It’s really tricky since I love both videos of Stay the Night and Turn Down for What, but I guess I’ll go with Zedd for this one.

Collaboration

COLLABORATION

Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea, “Problem”
Beyoncé ft. Jay Z, “Drunk In Love”
Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne and Tyga, “Loyal”
Eminem ft. Rihanna, “The Monster”
Katy Perry ft. Juicy J, “Dark Horse”
Pitbull ft. Kesha, “Timber”

WHO WILL WIN: It won’t be a Beyonce night if they won’t let her win awards on the main show right? This is celebrity power couple here, so it seems fitting that the only Video of the Year nominee here wins.
RUNNER UP: Dominating the whole summer season, it’s Iggy Azalea and Ariana Grande’s year by far, so don’t be surprised if they get rewarded for it here.
MY CHOICE: Hmm. I’m thisclose to going with Timber since I love that song but really mediocre video aside, I want to see Ariana Grande win a moonman, so I’d give Problem my vote here.

Video with a Message

VIDEO WITH SOCIAL MESSAGE

Angel Haze ft. Sia, “Battle Cry”
Avicii ft. Dan Tyminski, “Hey Brother”
Beyoncé, “Pretty Hurts”
David Guetta, “One Voice”
J. Cole, “Crooked Smile”
Kelly Rowland, “Dirty Laundry”

WHO WILL WIN: Bleh. It’s tailor made for a Beyonce win here. Why even bother?
RUNNER UP: Pfft Avicii maybe?
MY CHOICE: I love Kelly Rowland’s Dirty Laundry so I’m personally rooting her here over Beyonce. #poormichelle

There you have it! Are you excited for the VMAs? Don’t forget to watch the show on Sunday (Monday here in Manila) and catch performances from Taylor Swift, Beyonce, Ariana Grande, Sam Smith, Iggy Azalea, and Usher among others!

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Drama and Comedy Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Drama Series

Today we’ll be finishing the Emmy 2014 analysis series here at Tit for Tat by doing the remaining two categories left for the 66th Primetime Emmy Awards before envelopes are opened on Monday night. And with no further ado, let’s begin with the drama programs of the past season.

When it seemed like it’s gonna go downhill from the first season, House of Cards went on and even beat their nomination tally of their previous season. While that showed potential that voters aren’t giving up on the show anytime soon, I don’t think Netflix has completely managed to pull off the win in here as well. Mad Men stays for another year and is likely to join the club of shows nominated for all their eligible seasons, but it has been back in 2011 when they still won any Emmy so at this point, it’s a filler at best. Game of Thrones was screwed by another HBO being campaigned here, and while the show’s chances would increase, the genre bias against a fantasy show is still hard to overcome, even if with overwhelming reviews. Downton Abbey might have lost Hugh Bonneville this year, but gained Joanne Froggatt back again. All it lost is a Directing nom, so if anything, I think it indicates that it will still be nominated in the succeeding years. Breaking Bad seemed a confident frontrunner all season though it doesn’t have the benefit of airing a current season during Emmy voting. MeanwhileHBO must have too much confidence in True Detective to even consider ruining the small chance of Game of Thrones. After all, this is a now or never moment for the Emmys to reward this season. But then again, a cultural phenomenon like Breaking Bad doesn’t deserve to end with only one Drama Series Emmy in its mantle. Just like its previous cable show successor The Sopranos, the show is too big to resist to be denied of a second Drama Series; thus, I’m predicting it to win again.

Prediction: Breaking Bad
Alternate: “True Detective

Full Rankings:
01. “Breaking Bad
02. True Detective
03. “House of Cards
04. “Game of Thrones
05. “Downton Abbey
06. “Mad Men

Emmy Comedy Series

And lastly, we’re now on the comedy series. Last season, when it had critics rallying around it and it continuing to be a dominating force ratings wise, The Big Bang Theory still wasn’t able to do any big moves in the race, and I think it has already peaked when it comes to its chances of winning the top plum now. Louie, in its most dramatic season, would never also find its way near to the podium so the fact that it even got nominated for such is already a feat of its own. Not only did it manage to pick up a series nod, it also swept writing and directing nods so that bodes well for Silicon Valley but this show is too alienating for a broad amount of voters to prevail. It also doesn’t help that even if its on HBO, its ratings are nothing to be proud of. Sadly, the same applies for the other HBO show Veep, though to its benefit, it has Julia Louis Dreyfus maintaining the buzz for the show and the guilds totally supporting it. Maybe it’s a slow burner? In the end, I see this as a close fight between 4x champ Modern Family and newbie series Orange is the New Black. On one hand, Modern Family lost some of its key nominations (primarily two acting nods for its ensemble), but then again, it’s still the broadest show in this line up that I don’t think it will have any problem winning for a fifth one. It also submitted its best set of tapes, so it’s really not wise to dismiss this show altogether. Stealing its thunder, however, is the new Netflix show picking up 15 nominations and winning already three. The Orange ensemble is campaigning like crazy, and despite being on Netflix, the show has done a good job of making others aware of it. While I don’t think it’s a shoo-in, it’s also helped by its second season delivering (like how Breaking Bad was helped last year) unlike other female-oriented nominated shows before. In the end, I’d give the odds to them crowning a new champ now, but I’ll be wary since Modern Family is very much still in this race.

Prediction: Orange is the New Black
Alternate: “Modern Family

Full Rankings:
01. “Orange is the New Black
02. Modern Family
03. “Veep
04. “Silicon Valley
05. “The Big Bang Theory”
06. “Louie

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

There you have it! Let’s see how many of these will I get correctly or how badly I will do this year. For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

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