84th Oscar Masterlist Nomination Predictions   1 comment

So before Jennifer Lawrence and Academy president Tom Sherak announced the nominations on January 24 (that’s Tuesday night, 9PM here in Manila), I’m gonna give you a cheat sheet that can help you in case you are joining any Oscar nomination prediction contest. Mind you, this has been based from the guilds nominations and critics mentions this awards season, and while this is not 100% correct predictability rate, majority, if not all nominations will certainly come from this list. Otherwise, that’ll be the surprise from this year’s nominees. Also, I’ll be including those shortlists from the Academy in some of the technical categories. Here we go!

BEST PICTURE:

The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Since the Oscar nominees for this year ranges from anything between five to ten, there’s a tendency that all the listed films above can still hear themselves as nominees for Best Picture this year. Many of these films are already sure bet for nominations, and while others are not that shoo-ins (Bridesmaids, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), the big guild support they received can push them for a nomination. I still don’t know how many among these ten will make my final list, but these are the ten films that excelled the most during the past few months.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Tate Taylor, The Help

Probably the busiest crowd, the best director category most of the time offers some odd but very deserving curveballs in terms of nominations such as Fernando Meirelles in 2003 for City of God and Paul Greengrass in 2006 for United 93. This year’s curveball candidate is probably Nicolas Winding Refn who can carry his Cannes victory all the way to an Oscar nomination. It can also go to critics favorite Terrence Malick for Tree of Life. Or to established directors such as Scorsese, Spielberg, and Allen. BP nominees can also carry their directors to a nomination so Tate Taylor and Bennett Miller shouldn’t be discounted as well.

BEST ACTOR:

Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo di Caprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Shannon, Take Shelter

Otherwise known as the prettiest set of nominees ever, Clooney, Pitt, di Caprio, Fassbender, and Dujardin are the most likely frontrunners in this category. However, do not underestimate Demian Bichir who received a SAG nod (which indicates a sold actors support), overdue for a nomination Gary Oldman (whom the British bloc can go behind with), and Michael Shannon ( remember he got in 2009 without any precursor support) to kick one to two guys from the list.

BEST ACTRESS:

Berenice Bejo, the Artist
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Outside of the three perceived frontrunners (Davis, Streep, Williams), the two spots can go to any of the five remaining women. Glenn Close is doing a vanity project and though sometimes it pays off with a nom (Salma Hayek in Frida), there are times when it does not (Madonna in Evita). Rooney Mara can sail coast to a nomination after the strong showing of Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Tilda Swinton got the necessary precursors needed, but she’s gonna be one of those filler nominees in case. Charlize Theron is an Oscar winner actress who headlines her own comedy, and this is probably the case of past Oscar winner making it due to name alone (Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, Helen Mirren in Last Station). Lastly, if there’s a strong case of support, Berenice Bejo can move up to a Lead nomination even if campaigned in Supporting as proven by the likes of Susan Sarandon, Valerie Perrine, Keisha Castle Hughes, and Kate Winslet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Ben Kingsley, Hugo
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Like the Best Actress category, there are three contenders who are ahead of the competition this year: Branagh (as Oscar loves actors who play actors), Brooks (Oscar loves em veterans), Plummer (Oscar loves em veterans + gay roles).  Jonah Hill got GG + SAG nods, but Mila Kunis is a testament that does not equate with an Oscar nominee title. Nick Nolte and Armie Hammer got SAG nods which indicates support from the actors branch. Viggo Mortensen is a respected actor that can benefit from an open competition. Lastly, Ben Kingsley can get in due to name alone, but he also stars in a BP nominee which can translate to a nomination.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Berenice Bejo, the Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Surprisingly, there’s only one lock in this category: eventual winner Octavia Spencer. The rest of the women, though highly probably, can still logically miss on a nomination. With all good performances, Jessica Chastain can be victimized with a vote splitting especially since some of her films can have some passionate supporters (Tree of Life, Take Shelter), and though the most logical chance is “The Help”, she won’t win against co-star Octavia Spencer. Melissa McCarthy got some important precursor nods, and it’s logical to predict her at this point. We’ll just have to wait with how the Academy responds to Bridesmaids. Janet McTeer can easily get lost in the shuffle, but this is a scene stealing role in an otherwise blah movie. If there’s enough love for Shame, past Best Actress nominee Carey Mulligan can get in this year for a very haunting performance. Now if there’s someone who can get in with no precursors at all, it’s Vanessa Redgrave who was a scene stealer in Coriolanus. As for Shailene Woodley, not getting SAG and BAFTA can hurt her big time, but this is the category that loves young actresses so much (Anna Kendrick, Michelle Williams, Saoirse Ronan) so that might work on her advantage.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

50/50
The Artist
Beginners
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Take Shelter
Win Win
Young Adult

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

The Descendants
Drive
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse

NOTE: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has NO shot in hell of getting nommed, but since I want to close to ten contenders, I’m including it. So if you are into serious Oscar predicting, I’m removing one contender for you already. EL&IC is not happening. LELZ.

As for the official lists that the AMPAS released, here are some other categories with shortlists left for voting:

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Bullhead, directed by Michael R. Roskam, Belgium
  • Monsieur Lazhar, directed by Philippe Falardeau, Canada
  • SuperClásico, directed by Ole Christian Madsen, Denmark
  • Pina, directed by Wim Wenders, Germany
  • A Separation, directed by Asghar Farhadi, Iran
  • Footnote, directed by Joseph Cedar, Israel
  • Omar Killed Me, directed by Roschdy Zem, Morocco
  • In Darkness, directed by Agnieszka Holland, Poland
  • Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale, directed by Wei Te-Sheng, Taiwan

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Battle for Brooklyn
  • Bill Cunningham New York
  • Buck
  • Hell and Back Again
  • If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
  • Jane’s Journey
  • The Loving Story
  • Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
  • Pina
  • Project Nim
  • Semper Fi: Always Faithful
  • Sing Your Song
  • Undefeated
  • Under Fire: Journalists in Combat
  • We Were Here

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • The Barber of Birmingham
  • God Is the Bigger Elvis
  • In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egypt’s Unfinished Revolution
  • Incident in New Baghdad
  • Pipe Dreams
  • Saving Face
  • The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
  • Witness
BEST MAKE UP
  • Albert Nobbs
  • Anonymous
  • The Artist
  • Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
  • Hugo
  • The Iron Lady
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
  • Captain America: The First Avenger
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2
  • Hugo
  • Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
  • Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
  • Real Steel
  • Rise of the Planet of the Apes
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon
  • The Tree of Life
  • X-Men: First Class
Hope this helps you all Oscar freaks out there. I’ll be posting my predictions on Tuesday morning. Happy Oscar guessing game everyone! 🙂
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Posted January 20, 2012 by Nicol Latayan in Awards

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One response to “84th Oscar Masterlist Nomination Predictions

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  1. Since I love the book I wish Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close will pull off a shocker and get a nomination, anywhere haha pero yeah sobrang malabo na

    Picture: Artist, Descendants, Hugo, Paris and Help. I think 6 lang manonominate I think either Moneyball or Dragon Tattoo will get the 6th slot. War Horse I think is toast, olats sa mga guilds eh. Personal hope eh makapasok Bridesmaids

    Actor: Clooney, Pitt and Dujardin. Fassbender is vulnerable kasi feeling ko di magugustuhan ng academy yung Shame.
    Actress: Streep, Viola and WIlliams sure sure. Sana ipasok nila dito si Berenice! 😀
    S.Actor: Plummer, Branagh are locks. Feeling ko vulnerable si Brooks dahil sa SAG snub. Skeptical pa ako manominate si Jonah Hill haha
    S.Actress: The Help girls, Berenice. I think papasok si Redgrave kahit walang precursor. I personally hope McCartney and Woodley make it, go TV actresses!

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