84th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions   Leave a comment

So after everything has been said and done, this will all boil down to this one. As a reminder, the 84th Academy Awards nominations will be announced on the morning of January 24 by Academy president Tom Sherak and Oscar Best Actress nominee Jennifer Lawrence. This is a very confusing year when it comes to nominations, and though I’ll probably enjoy some gutsy predictions I made that paid off last year (ehemJavier Bardem for Biutifulehem), this one turns out to be a much more difficult and complicated year. Let’s begin!

• The Artist
• The Descendants
• The Help
• Hugo
• Midnight in Paris
• Moneyball
• War Horse

8th (but not predicted) : The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
9th (but not predicted) : Bridesmaids
10th (but not predicted) : The Tree of Life

Had there been five nominees only, it’s easier to predict since Moneyball and War Horse will get the boot; however, this new rule of uncertain number of nominations complicate things further. I’m currently predicting  seven pictures to get nominated and while I’m pretty confident with the first six, I’m really skeptical about War Horse’s chances. However, I think it can still get that needed 5% votes to get in the race.

• Michael Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
• Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
• Nicolas Winding Refn, “Drive”
• Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
• Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

Now there goes my first NGNG (that’s no guts, no glory) prediction for this year. This is more of a wishful thinking, since Terrence Malick, Steven Spielberg, Bennett Miller, and David Fincher are in a much better position to be nominated than Winding Refn, but I don’t know who among them will actually make it, so I just threw a random name there.

• George Clooney, “The Descendants”
• Leonardo di Caprio, “J. Edgar”
• Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
• Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
• Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Oh damn poor Fassbender. This is one category where I’m itching to be wrong just so dear Michael Fassbender squeaks in an Oscar nod for Shame. Clooney, Dujardin, and Pitt are sure locks already. And as much as people want to dismiss di Caprio’s chances, it’s difficult to fight against an Eastwood directed performance, because the Academy is very much receptive to the performances even if the movie has lukewarm reception (see Angelina Jolie in Changeling and Morgan Freeman in Invictus). Leo is in that direction. As for that Fassbender-should-have-been-here spot, I’m predicting co-Brit and never been nominated Gary Oldman to get in; thanks to the late sudden surge of buzz for TTSS.

• Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
• Viola Davis, “The Help”
• Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
• Tilda Swinton, “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
• Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

I’m going with the safe and conventional five. And as much as people want to think that Rooney Mara is considered a serious contender, uhm… no. It’s not gonna happen. Davis, Streep, and Williams are sure bets. Swinton got all precursors needed (a critics award? Check. GG? Check. BFCA? Check. SAG? Check. BAFTA? Check.), and that never missed a beat (EVER!). Even Cate Blanchett in the horrible Elizabeth: Golden Age film got in because of those precursors. And once again, I’m reiterating that passion project does well, so Glenn Close gets in. Anyway, is there a way to get Queen Charlize in? Damn.

• Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
• Albert Brooks, “Drive”
• Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
• Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
• Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”

Meh. What an embarrassment of riches this category has become, had there been a better set of nominees. Practically, no one’s safe aside from Plummer, but no one’s too strong as well to make a surprise appearance (Kingsley, but he certainly didn’t get any (and when I say any, I mean AAAANNNYYYY) precursors for this one). With that, I’m sticking to this group.

• Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
• Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
• Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
• Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
• Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”

Once again, I’m going on a limb and predict Woodley to get in for a fifth slot. Bejo, Chastain, and Woodley are in now. Then there’s this thing called Melissa McCarthy who surprisingly got BFCA, SAG, and BAFTA nod. That’s probably one of the best combos ever, and had it been any other performance, it’s a shoo-in already. But will the Academy srsly consider someone pooping on a sink?!!? Seriously!?!?? I’m feeling though that McCartney will get nominated, but I don’t know who between McTeer and Woodley to replace her. Odds favor Woodley to get bumped off (missing a SAG and BAFTA), but with this one, I’m clearly going on personal preference, as I want her to get that nomination.

• Will Reiner, “50/50”
• Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
• Kristen Wig, Annie Mumulo, “Bridesmaids”
• Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
• Asghar Farhadi, “A Separation”

Now this one’s interesting. I’m predicting two NGNG entries here: the first one being Bridesmaids, who got in the WGA as well, but we know how much the Academy isn’t receptive to laugh out loud raunchy genre like this one. The other one is A Separation who swept majority of the critics awards in this category to extend their nomination after the Foreign Language Film one. But of course, one can still expect the likes of Young Adult, Take Shelter, and Win Win to get mentions if any of my NGNG predictions fail to take off.

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, “The Descendants”
• Tate Taylor, “The Help”
• John Logan, “Hugo”
• Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, “Moneyball”
• Bridget O’Connor, Peter Strong, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”

• The Adventures of Tintin
• Arthur Christmas
• Cars 2
• Puss N Boots
• Rango

This will be the actual test to identify if AMPAS are Pixar suckers. If they nominated that critically panned Cars 2 (though they did nominate the first one), then you know they have a Pixar hard on. I’m currently betting on it, but don’t underestimate more critically acclaimed films such as “Chico and Rita” or even “Winnie the Pooh” to get that fifth slot.

• Footnote (Israel)
• In Darkness (Poland)
• Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
• Pina (Germany)
• A Separation (Iran)

To be safe, I nominated Pina both here and in the Docs categories. Let’s see which one it will get. if I have my way, I’ll give an automatic nomination to Denmark’s Superclasico just for its hilarious trailer alone.

• Hell and Back Again
• Paradise 3: Purgatory
• Pina
• Project Nim
• Semper Fi

Unlike any other year where there’s a clear frontrunner here (Bowling for Columbine, An Inconvenient Truth, The Cove), there isn’t any this year. The guilds didn’t help and nominated those who weren’t even in the top fifteen, so aside from Paradise 3, and Project Nim, the three are random choices. Like what I said, I included Pina both here and in FLF since that’s the most logical thing to do.

• The Artist
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
• Hugo
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• War Horse

• The Artist
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

• The Artist
• The Help
• Hugo
• Jane Eyre
• War Horse

• The Artist
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Moneyball
• War Horse

• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
• Hugo
• The Iron Lady

• The Adventures of Tintin
• The Artist
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• War Horse

• Lay Your Head Down (Albert Nobbs)
• Life’s a Happy Song (The Muppets)
• The Living Proof (The Help)
• Pictures in My Head (The Muppets)
• Star Spangled Man (Captain America)

• Hugo
• Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Super 8
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• War Horse

• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Hugo
• Moneyball
• Super 8
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon

• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
• Hugo
• Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• The Tree of Life

The following categories, I have no idea what they are so I’m just picking random names out of the list.

• The Barber of Bingham
• God is the Bigger Elvis
• Incident ni New Baghdad
• Pipe Dreams
• The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

• The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr Morris Lessmore
• La Luna
• Magic Piano
• A Morning Stroll
• Wild Life

• Je Pourrais Être Votre Grand-Mère (I Could Be Your Grandmother)
• Love at First Sight
• The Road Home
• Sailcloth
• The Shore

12 – Hugo
10 – The Artist
7 – The Help, War Horse
6 – Moneyball
5 – The Descendants
3 – Midnight in Paris, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Albert Nobbs, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
2 – A Separation, The Iron Lady, Pina, My Week with Marilyn, Tree of Life, Drive, Adventures of Tintin, The Muppets, Super 8, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Rise of the Planet of the Apes

That’s it! So what do you think? Is Melissa McCarthy gonna make it? Am I overestimating War Horse? Will Drive drive its way to a Director nod? And can we call it Academy Award nominated film Captain America? Feel free to insert your predictions as well.

Posted January 23, 2012 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, Films

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