18th Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

Tomorrow, the whole actors guild will be handling out their choices for the best in movie and television performance of the year in the 18th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. Here’s my rushed predictions for tomorrow’s event:

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Help
Midnight in Paris

WILL WIN: The Help Obviously the runaway winner from the start, The Help is an actors film and the acting is probably what the strongest asset of the whole movie. With almost all the character actors and some movie stars in its cast, The Help will obviously win this one fair and square. There’s no even denying that this is one of the best wins in this category once it wins tomorrow.

SPOILER: The Artist Every once in a while, this category usually resembles the Best Picture at the Oscars so good ensembles get elevated with the strength of the film (Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men), so if there’s a chance that the Artist is THAT well received, it might snatch this from the Help.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
DEMIÁN BICHIR / Carlos Galindo – “A BETTER LIFE” (Summit Entertainment)
GEORGE CLOONEY / Matt King – “THE DESCENDANTS” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / J. Edgar Hoover – “J. EDGAR” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JEAN DUJARDIN / George – “THE ARTIST” (The Weinstein Company)
BRAD PITT / Billy Beane – “MONEYBALL” (Columbia Pictures)

WILL WIN: George Clooney, “The Descendants” Despite winning four SAGs already, all of them were for best Ensemble for ER. Clooney hasn’t won an individual SAG yet, and nothing for Clooney as the movie star. So this is the perfect year where he gets in the frontrunner status.

SPOILER: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist” Dujardin is The Artist’s best bet for a SAG win, and this can be a case like Johnny Depp where in two close competitors (Murray and Penn) split votes. Dujardin is probably the most likable actor this awards season and can benefit from a Clooney-Pitt split.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
GLENN CLOSE / Albert Nobbs – “ALBERT NOBBS” (Roadside Attractions)
VIOLA DAVIS / Aibileen Clark – “THE HELP” (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
MERYL STREEP / Margaret Thatcher – “THE IRON LADY” (The Weinstein Company)
TILDA SWINTON / Eva – “WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Marilyn Monroe – “MY WEEK WITH MARILYN” (The Weinstein Company)

WILL WIN: Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady” Probably my no guts, no glory prediction for tomorrow, there has been no repeat winners for the Best Actress category at the SAGs since its inception in 1994. Streep already won one for Doubt in 2008, and if we base it on history, she’s not winning again. However, if there’s someone who’ll likely break this trend, it’s probably Streep herself. Everyone is just amazed with her Margaret Thatcher performance, and if she can win with a polarizing Doubt, she can win with this.

SPOILER: Viola Davis, “The Help” Davis is the current frontrunner especially since she’s a respected character actor who has worked with majority of the actors already. Also, The Help is an acting film, and Davis is the heart and soul of her film. The only thing that prevents me from predicting her is that I don’t see The Help winning three out of five SAG film awards, and it has larger chance of winning Ensemble and Supporting Actress.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
KENNETH BRANAGH / Sir Laurence Olivier – “MY WEEK WITH MARILYN” (The Weinstein Company)
ARMIE HAMMER / Clyde Tolson – “J. EDGAR” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JONAH HILL / Peter Brand – “MONEYBALL” (Columbia Pictures)
NICK NOLTE / Paddy Conlon – “WARRIOR” (Lionsgate)
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER / Hal – “BEGINNERS” (Focus Features)

WILL WIN: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners” Both by age and by filmography, Christopher Plummer is the far and away the most respected veteran in the bunch. Since all of them are still SAG-less, it’s always safe to go with the current frontrunner, and that’s Christopher Plummer.

SPOILER: Nick Nolte, “Warrior” Another overdue actor who is still SAG-less, but I see the group prioritizing Plummer over him. After all, Beginners is the Oscar friendlier film from the bunch.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
BÉRÉNICE BEJO / Peppy – “THE ARTIST” (The Weinstein Company)
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Celia Foote – “THE HELP” (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
MELISSA McCARTHY / Megan – “BRIDESMAIDS” (Universal Pictures)
JANET McTEER / Hubert Page – “ALBERT NOBBS” (Roadside Attractions)
OCTAVIA SPENCER / Minny Jackson – “THE HELP” (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)

WILL WIN: Octavia Spencer, “The Help” Spencer’s role is the baitiest of The Help characters, and it’s this type of role that gets awards attention. She also has won the televised precursors so far, and African-American actresses really does well in this category with three out of the last five winners (Jennifer Hudson, Ruby Dee, and Mo’nique) winning here.

SPOILER: Jessica Chastain, “The Help” Just in case everyone rallies up for all the SEVEN (yes, seven) movies that represented Jessica Chastain’s body of work this year, that might be enough to pull of a win here.

PRIMETIME TELEVISION

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
PATRICK J. ADAMS / Mike Ross – “SUITS” (USA)
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thomson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
KYLE CHANDLER / Eric Taylor – “FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS” (DirecTV)
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
MICHAEL C. HALL / Dexter Morgan – “DEXTER” (Showtime)

WILL WIN: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad” Still unrewarded here and this probably being his last chance to win for this role, sentimentality might work for Bryan Cranston this time. After all, he might get some residual love for Malcolm in the Middle, there’s no fresh new actor nominated alongside him, and I don’t think this three time Emmy winner will end up SAG-less for this iconic role. Let’s see.

SPOILER: Kyle Chandler, “Friday Night Lights” By getting a surprise nomination despite his series finishing already, Chandler’s first nom might be his lucky charm. After all, FNL is the the type of actor’s show that voters can sympathize with. Plus, he just won the Emmy last September.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
KATHY BATES / Harriet Korn – “HARRY’S LAW” (NBC)
GLENN CLOSE / Patty Hewes – “DAMAGES” (DirecTV)
JESSICA LANGE / Constance – “AMERICAN HORROR STORY” (FX)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
KYRA SEDGWICK / Dept. Chief Brenda Leigh Johnson – “THE CLOSER” (TNT)

WILL WIN: Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife” Literally the queen of SAGs, it is really hard to bet against Julianna Margulies. And while I acknowledge that her competition is very strong this year, it’s difficult to bet against this role of hers which is so far, still unbeatable in this category. I’ll probably be wrong here, but I’m just sticking with the safe choice.

SPOILER: Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story” Clearly the best performer and star of American Horror Story, it is really hard to bet against Jessica Lange. After all, she still hasn’t won any SAG yet, and voters clearly love to play catch up with the veterans. I just can’t predict her yet since Margulies is here in this category. But she’ll probably win this one tomorrow.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
STEVE CARELL / Michael Scott – “THE OFFICE” (NBC)
JON CRYER / Alan Harper – “TWO AND A HALF MEN” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)

WILL WIN: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” See analysis for Juliana Margulies and replace all Juliana Margulies with Alec Baldwin and The Good Wife with 30 Rock.

SPOILER: Steve Carell, “The Office” They still nominated Michael Scott one last time. This probably means a support for the underrated Carell. Also, who doesn’t want to see him give a farewell overdue speech (which should have had happened during the Emmys. Oh well).

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
JULIE BOWEN / Claire Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
BETTY WHITE / Elka Ostrovsky – “HOT IN CLEVELAND” (TV Land)

WILL WIN: Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family” Now this is my heart speaking more than my brain, but I’m just dying to see a Sofia speech. Besides, I think she’s overdue to win an individual award after two Emmys noms, two Globe noms, and two individual SAG noms. This category loved Megan Mullally, and Vergara fits the bill of loud mouthed upstaging supporting role.

SPOILER: Betty White, “Hot in Cleveland” But then again, we might go more with the voters’ hearts more than their brain and stick with legendary White. After all, they nominated her twice this year, and they can easily rubberstamp this category with another win from her.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
LAURENCE FISHBURNE / Thurgood Marshall – “THURGOOD” (HBO)
PAUL GIAMATTI / Ben Bernanke – “TOO BIG TO FAIL” (HBO)
GREG KINNEAR / Jack Kennedy – “THE KENNEDYS” (REELZ CHANNEL)
GUY PEARCE / Monty Beragon – “MILDRED PIERCE“ (HBO)
JAMES WOODS / Richard Fuld – “TOO BIG TO FAIL” (HBO)

WILL WIN: Laurence Fishburne, “Thurgood” Star of an HBO film? Check. Respected veteran? Check. Still SAG-less? Check. That gives Fishburne the advantage in this category, and I think voters will respond to him as well.

SPOILER: Guy Pearce, “Mildred Pierce” Emmy winning and Globe nominated performance might be hard to resist for the SAG voters this year. This is also a way to reward the underrated Guy Pearce.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
DIANE LANE / Pat Loud – “CINEMA VERITE” (HBO)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
EMILY WATSON / Janet Leach – “APPROPRIATE ADULT” (Sundance Channel)
BETTY WHITE / Caroline Thomas – “HALLMARK HALL OF FAME: THE LOST VALENTINE” (CBS)
KATE WINSLET / Mildred Pierce – “MILDRED PIERCE” (HBO)

WILL WIN: Kate Winslet, “Mildred Pierce” The SAG loves ’em Kate, and this is an iconic role which so far capped Emmy and Globe victories for her. This is probably an easy win for the very capable Kate Winslet.

SPOILER: Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey” The scene stealer in the respected British show, the Dame hasn’t won an individual SAG yet, and if her name is too much to resist for voters, a win is very possible.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Dexter
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife

WILL WIN: Boardwalk Empire In case of a vote splitting, just stick with the current champs; thus, I predict Boardwalk Empire.

SPOILER: The Good Wife In case Juliana Margulies loses Female Actor: Drama to Jessica Lange, they can still reward him with the rest of the team in this category. That way. Margulies still wins another SAG this year. LOL.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Glee
Modern Family
The Office

WILL WIN: Modern Family With no competition (where’s Team Parks and Rec!!?!?! Happy Endings!?!?!?! Community!?!?!?!?) , this is an easy repeat win for the team of Modern Family. And it’s as if they’re not the best ensemble out of this bunch.

SPOILER: Big Bang Theory Truth be told, they get boosted by being the only non winning ensemble from the nominees, and the three other nominations are so old news now.

That’s it, catch the 18th Screen Actors Guild tomorrow on Velvet, 9AM for the live telecast and 10 PM for the delayed Primetime telecast. Happy SAG day tomorrow! 🙂

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Posted January 29, 2012 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, Films, TV

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