84th Academy Awards Winner Predictions   8 comments

It’s officially my favorite day of the year. Nope, it’s not my birthday yet, nor it’s Christmas. This is probably the one day of every year that I’ll get really really excited after months and months of anticipation. It’s the actual Oscars day. Right now, I’ll be coming up with my last prediction for this year’s film cream of the crop, and though I don’t think I’ll beat my personal record in 2008 (Slumdog Millionaire sweep), I’ll still give my detailed analysis and best output for the nominees this year. Let’s start:

BEST PICTURE
“The Artist”
“The Descendants”
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
“The Help”
“Hugo”
“Midnight in Paris”
“Moneyball”
“The Tree of Life”
“War Horse”

With the surprise number of nominations for this year, one might thought that the noms will be as strained as possible. But let’s start with the fillers: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close proved that Daldry is synonymous to magic to the Academy. But with two nominations only, I don’t see it winning at all. War Horse, despite Steven Spielberg’s one two punch of a comeback year, isn’t strong enough and doesn’t have any notable precursors to back it up. Tree of Life is a very polarizing film, and despite two other nominations, it’s pretty funny to think that BP is the one that has the least amount of chance of winning. Moneyball has all important sectors covered up except for one: directing. And we all know how much crucial that is. The Help might be a celebration of diversity and color, but that has been put into good use already in 2002… and 2004… and 2006. Plus, the lack of supposedly support makes it a difficult choice for BP. Midnight in Paris is (surprisingly) Woody’s only third BP nominated film, and despite good support for the film, there’s already another award reserved to recognize the film. The Descendants lost the early momentum that it gained as it wasn’t that critical acclaimed as people expected, and it didn’t sweep televised awards as well. It’s just really difficult to follow Sideways (a film which defines perfection). This one is a two way race between two films that incidentally discusses films as well: Martin Scorsese’s Hugo and Michel Hazanavicius’s The Artist. And by sweeping the BFCA, Golden Globes, SAG, DGA, BAFTA, PGA, and even the Cesar, it is already notable to see that the path is clear for a victory by The Artist.

PREDICTION: “The Artist”
SPOILER: “Hugo”

BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Woody and Payne will be recognized on the Writing categories. Scorsese has just won one five years ago, and though it will be sweet to see him win again for an equally deserving film, the Academy will just spread the wealth. Terrence Malick is the spoiler, as he is someone you know the critics wanted to win an Oscar, and the film that he was nominated for is really a  directorial’s vision, but it is also too polarizing enough for the voters. This will be an easy victory for DGA winner Michel Hazanavicius and his very wonderful film creation of Best Picture winner “The Artist”.

PREDICTION: Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
SPOILER: Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”

BEST ACTOR
Demián Bichir, “A Better Life”
George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Gary Oldman, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

First off, welcome to the club Oscar nominees Demián Bichir and Gary Oldman! The nominations are your rewards. Brad Pitt, despite multiple nomination this year, lacked the supposedly awards that will make him very competitive for the win. Just when we all thought that Moneyball is his The Blind Side, it was just his next nomination. This is a two way horse race between George Clooney and Jean Dujardin. Clooney is the actor that AMPAS loves to nominate, and he is clearly in his element here in The Descendants. Despite winning a Supporting Actor Oscar six years ago, you all know that voters will give him the Lead statue somewhere along his career. That would have been this year, until this French actor Jean Dujardin came into the scene. He first started with a Globe win, then he surprised us all at the SAGs. He continued this at the BAFTA, and it’s common sense to everyone that a Globe + SAG + BAFTA is a trifecta that will ultimately lead to the Oscar podium. That’s where we’ll see Jean Dujardin tomorrow.

PREDICTION: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
SPOILER: George Clooney, “The Descendants”

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “The Help”
Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Rooney Mara, “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”

Rooney Mara, the Academy loves you so much that they invited you to be a part of the voting committee even with only The Social Network in your credits. The Academy loves you so much that they nominated you despite having a single Golden Globe as a precursor. But they don’t love you to the point of giving you the Oscar tomorrow. Glenn Close, this type of passion projects are the ones that Academy loves… to nominate. As much as you are overdue for an Oscar, I don’t think you’ll be hearing your name be called tomorrow night. Michelle Williams, as much as you made a good and poignant impersonation of Marilyn Monroe humanizing her to the viewers, this is simply not your time. All in all, it comes back to Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. Viola is considered as the female Denzel Washington, and it has been ten years since the only woman of color won in this category. She cried during her past speeches at the BFCAs and the SAGs, brought out the race card and gives a touching performance in a big ensemble in The Help. Meryl Streep hasn’t been called out at the Oscar podium in 29 years, has won the Globe and the BAFTA, and was the clear scene stealer in a category that loves biopics. All in all, this is a tight race, but I’m giving the ed ge to Viola Davis just because they can nominate Meryl again and again and again and again.

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, “The Help”
SPOILER: Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, “My Week With Marilyn”
Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Max Von Sydow, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Kenneth Branagh, Jonah Hill, and Nick Nolte are just fillers in the race, though if anyone might surprise, I’ll be giving slight edge to Nick Nolte. He’s the type of actor who’s somewhat overdue within the Academy. However, this is a race of the 82 year-olds. Exhibit A is Max Von Sydow, a very respected actor who has been a known name in world cinema that plays a silent role in a movie not entitled as The Artist. Exhibit B is Christopher Plummer who has literally swept all the precursors on the way to tomorrow’s Oscars. As much as Exhibit A can still pose a threat, this is Christopher Plummer’s to lose.

PREDICTION: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
SPOILER: Max von Sydow, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”
Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

Janet McTeer pulled off a very gimmicky role and turned it into something with finesse and catch despite how shouty the character was. But that defintitely is the reward to her nomination. Berenice Bejo is a in a good chemistry with Jean Dujardin, but she must be happy with her co-star and lover’s victories, as she wouldn’t be called out come tomorrow’s festivities. Melissa McCarthy seemed to be the it girl, and while her nomination is something that pushed boundaries, I don’t think this will be anytime soon rewarded with an Oscar. If people are rewarding an entire year of work, then Jessica Chastain should win this hands down, but that is not the case, and while voters will probably opt to do that, not everyone feels the same. And it will be ironic to see if Jessica Chastain, a white woman, will be the sole winning performance for a movie that shows diversity. In the end, it will be co-star Octavia Spencer’s victory tomorrow as she has the perfect scene-stealing comedic-relief role that this category usually rewards.

PREDICTION: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
SPOILER: Jessica Chastain, “The Help”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Artist”
“Bridesmaids”
“Margin Call”
“Midnight in Paris”
“A Separation”

Bridesmaids is too raunchy for the Academy’s taste to actually give it an Oscar, and Margin Call is a welcome to the Academy type of recognition that could have gone to 50/50 or Take Shelter. The Artist winning a screenplay for a silent film will probably happen if AMPAS is too in love with the film, and if it makes a complete sweep tomorrow. Original Screenplay is probably the category that embraces writing from foreign language film more, and Asghar Farhadi can be in for a surprise, but being a Best Picture nominee, and the far and away most loved person in the history of this category bodes well for Woody Allen and his win for Midnight in Paris.

PREDICTION: Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
SPOILER: Michel Hazanvicius, “The Artist”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“The Descendants”
“Hugo”
“The Ides of March”
“Moneyball”
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

The Ides of March is a clear filler here, and though it’s surprising that it got in over Best Picture nominee The Help, it still has zero chance of winning. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy won the BAFTA, but that don’t matter much since the film is a British production. Hugo, despite having a very cutesy and solid screenplay, focuses more on the visuals over the actual story itself. Overall, it’s a battle of past two winners: Alexander Payne’s The Descendants and current champ Aaron Sorkin’s’ Moneyball. Since they’re all for spreading the wealth, I think this will go down to Alexander Payne to reward The Descendants overall.

PREDICTION: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, “The Descendants”
SPOILER: Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillan, “Moneyball”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Bullhead” – Belgium
“Monsieur Lazhar” – Canada
“A Separation” – Iran
“Footnote” – Israel
“In Darkness” – Poland

There’s usually a frontrunner curse that happens in this category, as what happened to Amelie, Pan’s Labyrinth, and The White Ribbon, so A Separation might be in danger. Add the fact that In Darkness tackles Hollywood’s favorite FLF topic: Holocaust. Holocaust films has lost only twice in this category, but I don’t think anything is strong enough to overshadow A Separation here.

PREDICTION: A Separation (Iran)
SPOILER: In Darkness (Poland)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 
“A Cat in Paris”
“Chico and Rita”
“Kung Fu Panda 2″
“Puss in Boots”
“Rango”

Two blockbuster films will cancel each other out, two low profile serious ones will also cancel each other leaving Rango the winner.

PREDICTION: Rango
SPOILER: Chico and Rita

OTHER CATEGORIES:

BEST ART DIRECTION
Prediction: Hugo
Spoiler: The Artist

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Prediction: The Tree of Life
Spoiler: The Artist

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Prediction: The Artist
Spoiler: Jane Eyre

BEST FILM EDITING
Prediction: The Artist
Spoiler: Hugo

BEST MAKE UP
Prediction: The Iron Lady
Spoiler: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Prediction: The Artist
Spoiler: Hugo

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Prediction: “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets”
Spoiler: “Real in Rio” from “Rio”

BEST SOUND EDITING
Prediction: Hugo
Spoiler: War Horse

BEST SOUND MIXING
Prediction: Hugo
Spoiler: War Horse

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Spoiler: Hugo

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Prediction: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Spoiler: Pina

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Prediction: Saving Face
Spoiler: God is the Bigger Elvis

BEST ANIMATED SHORTS
Prediction: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Spoiler: Wild Life

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Prediction: Raju
Spoiler: Tuba Atlantic

Who are your predictions? Happy Oscar day tomorrow!

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Posted February 26, 2012 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, Films

Tagged with , ,

8 responses to “84th Academy Awards Winner Predictions

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  1. Money down on Meryl Streep winning the Oscar! LOL

    • My god Laurence! From your mouth to God’s ears! Pleeeease let Meryl win this time. Kesehodang mali ako sa prediction ko, I’m so so so ready for a Meryl victory, and hopefully tomorrow is the day.

      • I’ve already seen “The Iron Lady.” It’s her greatest performance since uhmmmmm… Sophie’s Choice! Disregarding Oscar politics (which really isn’t always the case), the voters should give her the Oscar. Hahaha!

      • I’ve already seen “The Iron Lady.” It’s her greatest performance since uhmmmmm… Sophie’s Choice! Disregarding Oscar politics (which really isn’t always the case), the voters should give her the Oscar. Hahaha!

      • Among the five nominees, Meryl is also my personal choice. Ampangeet lang ng movie, but she rose above the material IMO. Waaah. I really hope she wins!

  2. Hopefully matalo ang The Descendants sa screenplay, hindi talaga ako nagandahan sa screenplay nun to think 3 pa sila nag sulat nun hehe

    • It’s really possible that they’d left a Clooney movie out in the cold again ala Up in the Air. Feeling ko lang masyado pa kasing mabilis for Sorkin to have back to back wins, and Payne is the more favorite one Academy-wise. Plus the WGA win. Though all in all, Adapted Screenplay is pretty weak this year. I think I’m personally rooting for Harry Potter in that category.

  3. Kumpara mo kasi sa Election and Sideways ang pangit ng The Descendants hehe. Up in the Air deserved to win though more than Precious pero ewan ko ba haha. As much as I love Hugo eh waley din screenplay nun hehe. Di ko pa napanood Moneyball pero I trust in Sorkin kasi haha

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