64th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 4: Drama   1 comment

Hey everyone! This is the last of the four part nomination series that I created in time for the announcement of the 64th Primetime Emmy Awards that will be revealed tomorrow by ABC star Kerry Washington and NBC actor Nick Offerman. We have covered almost everything from reality and variety to TV movie and minsieries and even comedy genres. The last one covers the most coveted genre: drama! Here are my predictions for the nine major drama categories.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES:

• Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
• Breaking Bad (AMC)
• Downton Abbey (PBS)
• The Good Wife (CBS)
• Homeland (Showtime)
• Mad Men (AMC)

Seventh nominee: Game of Thrones (HBO)

Like what I mentioned yesterday, I’m pretty foolish when it comes to my series predictions this year. As you can see, I left cult favorite Game of Thrones off my top six list. First things first, four time champ and still unbeatable Mad Men is still the safest prediction in this category. Breaking Bad which seems to be increasing its overdue factor and nods as each season passes. Homeland is the most critically acclaimed drama show of the year and its newbie factor will probably serve as a good alternate if there’s a Mad Men fatigue already. I’m predicting Boardwalk Empire despite it being an unpopular choice especially because this show led Emmy wins last year (eight staggering wins) and I don’t think the ATAS will drop it that instant. Also, the second season is more critically lauded than the first and there’s still a visible amount of support in the techs categories. I am also predicting The Good Wife for a nod because it has never happened in the history of the Emmys to have zero broadcast show for the top award, and The Good Wife is the only possible flagbearer of network TV. The last spot is between HBO’s Game of Thrones and PBS’s Downton Abbey, and while both failed to live up the expectations of their freshman season, Downton Abbey’s British factor might give it the watercooler edge over ATAS’ bias against fantasy shows.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

• Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire”
• Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
• Kelsey Grammer, “Boss”
• Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
• Damien Lewis, “Homeland”
• Timothy Olyphant, “Justified”

Seventh nominee: Michael C. Hall, “Dexter”

Bryan Cranston, Jon Hamm, and Steve Buscemi all received Globe and SAG awards so it is pretty guaranteed that they’ll earn repeat nominations again. The next two freshman performances were from Golden Globe winner Kelsey Grammer with a very baity role that will show voters his versatility as an actor. This might remind them of an Edie Falco scenario three years ago when she shifted categories from drama to comedy. Damien Lewis is another breakthrough performer who held up his own against Claire Danes in Homeland. He also performed physical transformation and that will give him extra buzz in his category. The last spot is between Dexter’s Michael C Hall especially since perennial Emmy nominees live up to another year of acting nomination despite their show being out of the Series nod (House’s Hugh Laurie and Weeds’ Mary Louise Parker for example), but I’m giving the advantage to Timothy Olyphant’s Justified performance to round up the category.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

• Glenn Close, “Damages”
• Claire Danes, “Homeland”
• Mariska Hargitay, “Law and Order: Special Victims Unit”
• Juliana Margulies, “The Good Wife”
• Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
• Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer”

Seventh nominee: Kathy Bates, “Harry’s Law”

What a very strong category this is in terms of range of possible nominees but we all know that this is where Emmy voters are stagnant and lazy to change it. Let’s start with the two front runners last year  including winner Juliana Margulies who lives up the title role of The Good Wife and Elisabeth Moss as Jon Hamm’s trustworthy secretary Peggy in Mad Men. Claire Danes gets the critical newbie who garnered major buzz including a Globe win for her performance in Homeland, and she is even the frontrunner for the win this year. Mariska Hargitay literally defined what overstaying means in this category but I think people should stop excluding her since the voters seem to see something we don’t with her performance and this is another year when she’ll get a filler nomination. The last two that I’m predicting are past winners of this category: first is two time winner Glenn Close who was nominated for her last three eligible seasons and coming off from an Oscar nod earlier this year will solidify her spot as a nominee. I reserve the last spot for 2010 winner Kyra Sedgwick because I believe that the only reason she missed last year as because coming off from a win, everyone though she’s a sure nominee so they extended the choices to other names causing her to be a victim of vote splitting. The same has happened to Alison Janney after her 2004 win, and she came back the year after and I expect Kyra to follow suit. However, I won’t be shocked to learn if Kathy Bates earns a consecutive nod especially since she’s from a David E. Kelley show and we know how much ATAS loves them.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

• Andre Braugher, “Men of a Certain Age”
• Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
• Giancarlo Esposito, “Breaking Bad”
• Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”
• Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad”
• John Slattery, “Mad Men”

Seventh nominee: Jared Harris, “Mad Men”

For this category, expect perennial nominee John Slattery to earn his fifth consecutive nod as Roger Sterling in Mad Men. The same can be said for current title holder and show scene stealer Peter Dinklage in Game of Thrones. Now that Breaking Bad is back, expect a pair of actors from the show to receive noms this year: 2010 winner Aaron Paul and a first time nod for Giancarlo Esposito. Mandy Patinkin is a respected character actor who will be carried with the Homeland love and this gives him a slot for the final nominee list. As for the last spot, it can either go to The Good Wife’s Alan Cumming or Josh Charles, Mad Men’s Jared Harris, Justified’s Neal McDonough or Walton Goggins, but I guess I’ll stick with two time nominee Andre Braugher since this might be his nom for both of his acting stint last year (Law and Order: SVU), and a swan song for Men of a Certain Age.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

• Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”
• Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad”
• Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men”
• Kelly MacDonald, “Boardwalk Empire”
• Archie Panjabi, “The Good Wife”
• Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”

Seventh nominee: January Jones, “Mad Men”

We might see a lot of repeat nominees in this category for this year. Both The Good Wife girls are already assured bets for nominations this year especially since Panjabi is a past winner here and Baranski seems to be the vet mainstay here. Christina Hendricks just had her best season in Mad Men yet and seems very likely give the show its overdue acting award. Maggie Smith who appears as the early frontrunner is what this category is made of, so it’s no wonder that despite the show changing genres, Smith is still a surefire contender in this category. I’m predicting a repeat nod for Kelly MacDonald since she gained a Globe nod this year and it’s very rare that a Supporting Actress nominee to be a one-time nom here unless they decide to not submit the succeeding year (Katherine Heigl and Cherry Jones). The last spot in this category looks destined to go to Breaking Bad’s Anna Gunn as the show seems to expand its Emmy reception this year including more nominations for its actors.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

• Jeremy Davies, “Justified”
• Chris Messina, “Damages”
• Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife”
• Robert Morse, “Mad Men”
• Matthew Perry, “The Good Wife”
• Fred Willard, “The Closer”

Seventh nominee: Jeffrey Wright, “House”

It’s a bit tricky not to include any Law and Order: SVU performance in this line up since they used to dominate the guest acting categories but The Good Wife seemed to replace it and thus I’m starting my predictions with a repeat nod for Michael J Fox and a frontrunner status for Matthew Perry. I’m also predicting a repeat nod for Jeremy Davies as I believe he came in second last year, and he gives showstopping performances this category loves to nominate. Mad Men’s Robert Morse is 30 Rock’s Elaine Stritch in the Guest Actor category. He has been nominated for the last four years so it’s pretty foolish to remove him now. Damages has been a staple in this category as well giving character actors nods, and Chris Messina is the standout among their eligible actors so I’m predicting him to get a nomination. The last one is between House’s Jeffrey Wright and The Closer’s Fred Willard. I’m going with Fred Willard since the Guest Actor category loves bravura showy performances and his Santa Clause role fits that bill.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

• Joan Cusack, “Shameless”
• Loretta Devine “Grey’s Anatomy”
• Louise Fletcher, “Shameless”
• Julia Ormond, “Mad Men”
• Carrie Preston, “The Good Wife”
• Jean Smart, “Harry’s Law”

Seventh nominee: Lucy Liu, “Southland”

Current champ Loretta Devine seems to get a safe nod after her win last year as Adel in Grey’s Anatomy. The same can be said for Shameless’s Joan Cusack together with another Shameless star, Oscar winner Louise Fletcher. Her role is attention grabbing and gives her a lot of money scenes to work on. After occupying two slots last year, Mad Men looks like it will be a staple in this category so I’m predicting Emmy winner Julia Ormond to get in this year. Previous winner Jean Smart also gets a baity role in a baity show and with Paul McCrane’s victory last year, she seems safe for a nomination for her guest stint in Harry’s Law. I predict Carrie Preston to grab the last spot as I believe that The Good Wife is the new Law and Order: SVU in the guest actor and actress, though I won’t be totally surprised if Southland’s Lucy Liu, Mad Men’s Alexis Bledel, Smash’s Berandette Peters or Uma Thurman, or Law and Order’s Chloe Sevigny to gain the last spot.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

• Boss (Pilot)
• Breaking Bad (Face Off)
• Downton Abbey (Episode 7: Christmas)
• Game of Thrones (Blackwater)
• Homeland (Pilot)

Sixth nominee: Boardwalk Empire (To the Lost)

Pilots tend to be noticed better in the directing categories, so I’m predicting both the pilots of Homeland and Boss to get some notice here. Blackwater is Game of Thrones’ Baelor episode of the season, and this seems to be a better directing showcase than a writing one, so I feel this will get a nomination here. While Breaking Bad managed to submit gazillions of writing episodes (thus eliminating their chances in the writing category) in the Drama Writing, they seem to be safe with the Directing one with Face Off being their surest bet. The last episode I’m putting here is Downton Abbey’s Episode 7 as it is both a showcase of their directing and writing at its best so it can possibly end up with nods here and in writing.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

• Downton Abbey (Episode 7: Christmas)
• The Good Wife (Blue Ribbon Panel)
• Homeland (Pilot)
• Homeland (The Weekend)
• Mad Men (The Other Woman)

Sixth nominee: Mad Men (Far Away Places)

As mentioned above, I already predicted Downton Abbey’s Christmas episode here as my first nominee in the writing category. Mad Men has a very good track record in this category winning three of the last four years with multiple nominations every year. This year, I predict “The Other Woman” as their best bet as it is the most universally well received episode of the season between viewers and non viewers of the show. Homeland’s pilot is also a safe bet despite it not being their best episode of the season, but worry not as I also predicted The Weekend to be their second nomination here. The last spot goes to The Good Wife’s Blue Ribbon Panel as it is the most buzzed episode of network television the past year, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Mad Men’s unique way of storytelling in Far Away Places will give them an alternate choice here.

There you have it folks, I have already completed my nominations predictions for this year. Now it’s time just to wait for the official Emmy predictions tomorrow. Good luck to everyone and may the best predictions win. LELZ. Thanks for reading! 🙂

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Posted July 18, 2012 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, TV

Tagged with , ,

One response to “64th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 4: Drama

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  1. Nucky Thompson a great political gangster on “Boardwalk Empire”, and I like that they added Al Capone on the show. My wife and I love to watch this show a lot. I hate that my daughters have so many DVR timers set that we cannot record the shows we want. My Dish coworker suggested that I get the Hopper, because it will record up to six shows at once. My daughters no longer have to come in the living room where were at to record one of their shows, because the Hopper gives us full DVR functions in all four rooms.

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