ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family” (Lifetime Supply)
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family” (Leap Day)
• Max Greenfield, “New Girl” (Control)
• Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live” (Host: Katy Perry)
• Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family” (Baby on Board)
• Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family” (Treehouse)

Current champ Ty Burrell can easily go for a repeat win in this category, thanks to having a “moment” in all four Modern Family tapes this season. While his episode submission that dealt with him thinking that there’s something wrong with his health is strong itself, it also does not hurt him that over the top characters and scene-stealers are well loved in this category and even rewarded with multiple Emmys (e.g. Everybody Loves Raymond’s Brad Garrett and Entourage’s Jeremy Piven). Jesse Tyler Ferguson benefits from the fact that he is the most consistent if you take a look at the performance of the cast season-wise. In his submitted episode, he deals with his plans to surprise Cam with a birthday celebration with plans ranging from a Wizard of Oz theme to a party in the deck. If voters want to spread the wealth and reward all Modern Family cast first, then I can see Jesse Tyler Ferguson taking home the Emmy this year. First time Emmy nominee Max Greenfield instantly managed to make it to the final Emmy list this year. That is probably why his character Schmidt is also one of the most popular and most loved in the series. It also helps him that his submission gave him screen time, range, and impact when the character of Zooey Deschanel confronted him with his OC condition. His only hindrance from the trophy is that he has to overcome four Modern Family men with four Modern Family tapes. Bill Hader should be proud of the fact that he is the first male regular Saturday Night Live cast member to get nominated in this category since they started competing here in 2008. Also, since cast member Kristen Wiig officially exited the show last season, he’s the only possible nominee from the show to return next year. His surprise nomination (over the likes of Chris Colfer and Nick Offerman) is most likely due to his  famous Stefon skit, and he rightfully submitted an episode that highlighted that. However, I don’t think this will bring him anywhere to the Emmy podium next month. Two time nominee Ed O’Neill seems to suffer from the fact that he had a weak season altogether, so he has lesser options than last year where in I’m pretty sure he came in second. This year, he submitted an episode where in he helped his granddaughter overcome stage fright by dancing with her. While it tugs to the heart, his exposure was so short and he must just rely with the episodes submitted by his co-stars. All in all, I think he just have to sit this year out and wish for better material next year. 2010 winner Eric Stonestreet had a hit or miss season in totality, but he’s lucky that he got a winning tape with his submission. In “Treehouse”, he took a bet that he can manage to get a single woman’s number and convince her that he’s straight. What’s good about this episode is that it puts Cam front and center and far from the usual Cam and Mitch bickering. However, his role is somewhat polarizing and if viewers are mixed on loving and hating it, that won’t necessarily end with a second Emmy for the actor.

It is noteworthy to mention that once a single show receives three or more nominations in a single field, the winner usually comes from that show as proven by Sex and the City in 2004, Desperate Housewives in 2005, Grey’s Anatomy in 2007, and Modern Family the past two years. With that said, I’m expecting that the winner comes from Modern Family again this year. If they choose to spread the wealth, expect Jesse Tyler Ferguson to win. If they go with overdue factor, Ed O’Neill might pull off an upset. If they based it on a single episode, Eric Stonestreet might repeat. But if they take into consideration all factors, then Ty Burrell gets a repeat win. I’m currently betting on that.

Prediction: 
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
Dark Horse: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”
Complete Rankings:
1. Burrell
2. Ferguson
3. Greenfield
4. Stonestreet
5. O’Neill
6. Hader
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