ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife” (Alienation of Affection)
• Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey” (Episode 7: Christmas Episode)
• Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad” (Cornered)
• Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men” (The Other Woman)
• Archie Panjabi, “The Good Wife” (The Dream Team)
• Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey” (Episode 1)

Christine Baranski is on her third consecutive nomination and is still Emmyless for this role. What I particularly like about her submission is how vital her character and storyline is on the whole episode. She has a very huge amount of screentime that focuses not only on the case, but on her Diane’s personal struggles as well. This is also her best season on the show, and if The Good Wife fans want to spread the wealth between her and Panjabi, they might opt to go with her this time. First time nominee Joanne Froggatt is an unknown actress in terms of Emmy radar, but after viewing her tape, I’d say she’s every inch in this race considering how much baity her tape is. She gets to have a breakdown scene, trial scenes, and crying moments throughout her whole episode. If the Christmas episode of Downton Abbey is a motion picture, I’d even dare say that she’ll get notices for an Oscar. These are the stuff that awards are made of, and it also helps her that Smith’s tape showcases her as well. The only thing she needs to overcome is her being unknown but Archie Panjabi made it happen two years ago. The other first time nominee, Anna Gunn, finally gets an overdue nomination, but it’s sad that it was not one of her better seasons on the show, and she doesn’t even have the slam dunk tape to submit this year. In her episode, she gets to have a confrontation with husband Walter, and goes on a major decision by the end of the episode. I actually like this tape for her; but I don’t think this showcases her acting talents the most. Now that she’s in the club already, I think they might wait another season before finally rewarding her with that elusive Emmy. After all, she already has a winning tape this season and for next year’s eligibility. One can argue that this is Christina Hendricks‘ best season on the show so far. She gets to have more moments, and we get to know more about Joan as the season progresses. For this year, she submitted “The Other Woman” which is one of the show’s top episodes this season. It was a strong episode altogether and it was a highlight for the main cast… which is also the problem. Hendricks gets to share the episode with both Hamm and Moss (which also submitted these episodes), so she does not get to own this episode as one could hope for. While her moments are certainly effective in here, there are other equally impressive storylines that can drown hers. If voters manage to overcome all of those and focus on Hendricks’ instead, then she might have a chance. 2010 champ Archie Panjabi is also on her third nod for the show, and this year, she submitted the season finale. It involves a mysterious bank check and a cliff hanger confrontation scene in the end. She was not given a lot to do in this episode, though her scenes are memorable, but it can also drown with the other storyline re: The Dream Team. I don’t think Panjabi has what it takes to reap a second win, but everyone also underestimated her during the year when she won her Emmy, so one can not really tell what her chances are. Last year, Dame Maggie Smith already took home an Emmy for this role beating three actresses from Mildred Pierce in the Miniseries/TV movie category. This year, I don’t think it’s as slam dunk as one thinks when it comes to her chances. Her submitted episode (the season opener) does not require her to do much, but it contains her trademark reactionary ice queen conversations. If voters still dig that, then she can win this one in a cakewalk. After all, she’s Dame Maggie Smith. She also has a “second” tape this year via Froggatt’s so that increases her chances, but if viewers focus on tapes this year, I don’t feel she’ll be gaining majority of those number ones.

This category has been the one that provides the upset of the night for the past few years (except Martindale last year), so the person who’s usually ranked last or second to the last wins this race. If viewers based it on season long performance, I’d say expect Hendricks to win it. If they solely based it on name factor, Smith wins it easily. If they want to reward another veteran, then Baranski might be what they’re looking for. But if they focus on tapes, maybe Joanne Froggatt has a chance. I’m actually risking the fact that they’re basing it on the tapes and pushing unknown Froggatt for the win.

Prediction: Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey
Dark Horse: Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife

Complete Rankings:
1. Froggatt
2. Baranski
3. Hendricks
4. Smith
5. Gunn
6. Panjabi

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