ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Drama Series 2012   Leave a comment

While I had no doubts that Boardwalk Empire will earn a repeat nomination in this category, it’s chances are sadly slim to none. This show lost all the buzz and momentum that they had last year which could have catapulted to a regular second season series win. The only good thing on their side is that the second season was far more critically praised than the first one, but in between losing buzz and nominations, it seems like Boardwalk Empire must be content with just enjoying their nomination. Not even the name of Martin Scorsese can help it win on its freshman season, so the odds are definitely lower now.

After missing out a season of eligibility, Breaking Bad comes back and definitely with a bang. With increased nominations and more critical acclaims on its side, it is very fitting to assume that the show will definitely pick up a Series win. The only negative things about that is that I don’t see it happening this year. Slowly, we can see the whole Emmy voters warming up in terms of their reception regarding the show, and it will probably take next season or the final one (the last season is divided into two parts ala The Sopranos), for them to give this show the crown. As for now, we should just get contented with the fact that there are signs that show they really really like the show.

In my opinion, there are really two possible scenarios that Downton Abbey can end up to prior to the nomination announcement. They can be lukewarm about it, or they can go totally crazy about it. Obviously, with all the surprise nominations left and right, the Emmy voters finally have made their final say and stated how much they like this British period piece. Nominations in acting, directing, writing, and techs show the huge overall support that this show is getting. If there’s anything that can stop the lovefest that Emmy has towards Mad Men, I see the Downton Abbey train going it all the way to the podium come Emmy time.

Game of Thrones is the other HBO show nominated for the top award is on the opposite ends with Boardwalk Empire. While critics were pretty much divided this season, commercial acclaim definitely skyrocketed more than ever, now forming a cult following of their own. However, in terms of nominations, voters were pretty much lukewarm especially to their supposed big episode “Blackwater” which missed both the Directing and Writing categories. It seems like voters aren’t that excited about the show the way they were excited about it last year, but still passionately like it to nominate it. The way I see it though, there is no possibility for George RR Martin and team to be going up that stage to receive this award.

Prior to the unveiling of the nominations, Homeland seems to be the show that will unseat Mad Men in the top drama category for the first time. After all, it has superstars as leads, it’s on cable, and it’s the hot new critics favorite show of this season. While all of those factors still apply to its advantage, there’s this little show called Downton Abbey that grabbed all the momentum that should be going to this show. However, I still don’t think it’s the end for the series. If voters want some fresh blood that does not involve any Brits in it, then Homeland seems to be the clear alternate that voters are looking for. So, it is really not wise to knock their chances out yet.

Five for five hasn’t happened in the history of this category yet, but of course, there’s a large possibility that Mad Men is the show that can finally get that acclaim. Mad Men still pretty much buzzworthy in the frontrunner status delivering another winning season with wise submissions to boot. It is also not difficult to give the show an easy win especially when they still managed to nab the top award last year even with just Hairstyling as its only other award.

Just a week ago, I’m pretty certain that Mad Men will win this in a heartbeat. Remember all it needs is a Hairstyling Emmy and one can claim that odds will be perfect then. In a shocking twist of fate, Downton Abbey snatches Mad Men’s love relationship in that category. Is that an omen of what will happen once the envelop is opened? Sounds ridiculous, but I’m staying safe for now and predict Downton Abbey to stop mad Men’s historic fifth win.

Prediction: Downton Abbey

Dark Horse: Mad Men

Complete Rankings:

1. Downton Abbey
2. Mad Men
3. Homeland
4. Breaking Bad
5. Boardwalk Empire
6. Game of Thrones
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