85th Oscar Master List Nomination Predictions   2 comments

The nominations for the 85th Academy Awards will be unveiled six days from now, and a lot of the precursors have already released their choices in Hollywood cinema for 2012. The first master list that I did last year went actually great. In the top 8 major categories I included last year, I had a 95% correct rate in the predictions missing only Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Max Von Sydow for Supporting Actor for the same movie. 

To clear things though, this is a master list of possible predictions meaning that these are the possible final contenders vying for each category. If you are joining any Oscar nomination prediction contest, then this is pretty much what you can use as a reference point. Also, I’ll be including those shortlists from the Academy in some of the technical categories. Here we go!

picture

BEST PICTURE

Amour
Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

There’s a huge possibility that we’d get ten nominations for Best Picture this year, as there have been lots of passionate supporters of the movies we have in contention for the top honor. With that said, those who are safer are Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserableles, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty. Both Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom are safe bets, too, though they probably fit the likes of filler nominees. As for the rest, there’s a chance that we can hear them nominated but guilds aren’t too fond of Amour (let’s see how it catches up with other guilds), The Master (not even at the SAG and the art directions guild), and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (can be supported by the British bloc and the age correlation of Oscar voters).

director

BEST DIRECTOR

Ben Affleck, Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

And it all boils down to eight. Affleck, Spielberg, and Bigelow are safe for now. Ang Lee seems to be a director’s favorite, as he’s rewarded with nominations for all his past Oscar efforts. He’d also be getting a DGA nomination and has won that twice so he ahs the support of his own guild. The last spot is somehow tricky. David O. Russell seems the likeliest fifth contender, especially for all his efforts in Silver Linings Playbook. Thanks to The Fighter, it’s now easier for him to throw his name in the game. Quentin Tarantino can also fill up the last spot, as most of his efforts (especially those with Oscar buzz) has specified out his direction. It’s also a flashy performance that can resonate well with voters. Then there’s also Tom Hooper. I really don’t think he’s out per se, though that Globe snub was a big miss. He pulled off the surprise win in 2010 both at the Oscar and the DGA, so he must really have fans within the Academy. Then Paul Thomas Anderson can still sneak in his way to a nod if he maintains a solid passion among voters ala Terrence Malick last year.

lead actors

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Jean Louis Trintignant, Amour
Denzel Washington, Flight

Technically, this is just a six way race for the nomination but before we shock ourselves with a Daniel Day Lewis sweep within the next few weeks, here’s a more interesting race to look at. Daniel Day Lewis is in. No questions about that. Then, I’d say Bradley Cooper is also in. He got all the necessary precursors, won a critics award, newbie nominee, and has Harvey Weinstein on his back. That’s as sure as one can get. The next few slots can be tricky, but here’s the way I see the race. Hugh Jackman is in third. Les Mis is a box office juggernaut now, and  its critical appeal is slowly rebuilding its momentum. Plus he’s like the most likable man in Hollywood now. Denzel Washington comes next. He’s a major Hollywood superstar in a comeback Oscar vehicle. Think of it as a sure but filler Oscar nomination. The last spot is between John Hawkes and Joaquin Phoenix. Hawkes plays an Oscar weakness role but is in a really small movie. Meanwhile, Joaquin is funded by Harvey but the nature of his role plus his utter bluntness about the whole Oscar fare can affect his chances. It’s really a battle. As for Richard Gere, congrats on your Globe nod, and Trintignant on your EFA win!

lead actress

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Best Actress is also crowded this year. First, we have the frontrunners Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. They’re in. No Matter what happens, they’re getting in. Next will probably be Naomi Watts and Marion Cotillard. Both are the flagship accolades that their movies can get and has hit all precursors so far. The fifth slot can be tricky and is between five women. Helen Mirren can get in especially since she only needed a Globe and SAG nod when she got nominated for The Last Station and she got the same nods now. Quvenzhane Wallis is one of the year’s biggest breakthrough talents, and if there’s really a Beasts following, then it’s hard to see her miss. Emmanuelle Riva has the LAFCA win behind her, but no other precursors. However, it had the likes of Nicole Kidman buzzing about her performance. Then we have Rachel Weisz too, who got a Globe nod along her NY critics win, so she’s still in the race as well.

supporting actor

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo di Caprio, Django Unchained
Dwight Henry. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Now this is the most crowded major category for this year. I still think there’s room for a few more contenders that were not mentioned here, and I won’t be shocked if this will ruin (once again) my predicting skills this year. The only safe man here is Tommy Lee Jones. The rest can still miss though we’d have (in alphabetical order) Alan Arkin who was rewarded for a similar role so Oscar might not bother this time, Javier Bardem who was memorable in Skyfall but was rewarded for a far more iconic villain in this category  in 2007. Both Django Unchained guys can cancel themselves out especially in a crowded category like this. Hoffman is an actor’s actor, and he can get in even if the movie’s not a hit, but he can also cancel himself this year as The Master isn’t getting any support at all. de Niro also is a huge possibility, but with all the accolades focusing on lead stars Cooper and Lawrence, he might sit this one out as well. Lastly, Henry is the newbie we might be waiting here (since there’s always a newbie in the line up since the category’s inception), but he can also easily miss due to lack of precursor support for the performances in Beasts of the Southern Wild.

supporting actress

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Hathaway, Field, and Hunt are sure bets. There’s no way they’re missing for a nod this year. However, the last two spots can still be a race for five actresses. Amy Adams seems like a sure thing, but with a SAG miss this year, she haven’t had any past Oscar nom that translated despite a  SAG snub. This might be telling. Judi Dench can get a farewell nom for her Bond work, and this can also their way of recognizing her good year. But then again, Bond films doesn’t attract serious buzz within the Academy. Ann Dowd is slowly gaining momentum, but the nature of the film can hurt her the way it hurt Tilda Swinton last year despite getting all precursor nominations. Nicole Kidman got Globe + SAG nods, and while it’s actually a strong combo, the dislike of the film and her role in it can turn off some voters. Lastly, Maggie Smith got a SAG nod only in her name, but she’s Dame Maggie Smith, and that can be enough campaign for her… or not.

As for the rest of the race:

original screenplay

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
The Intouchables
Looper
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

adapted screenplay

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Perks of Being a Wallflower
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook

animated feature

ANIMATED FEATURE

Brave
Frankenweenie
From the Poppy Hill
Hotel Transylvania
The Painting
Paranorman
The Pirates: Legend of the Misfits
The Rabbi’s Cat
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck it Ralph

foreign language film

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Amour (Austria)
Beyond the Hills (Romania)
The Deep (Iceland)
The Intouchables (France)
Kon-tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Sister (Switzerland)
War Witch (Canada)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry
Bully
Chasing Ice
Detropia
Ethel
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
The House I Live In
How to Survive a Plague
The Imposter
The Invisible War
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
Searching for Sugar Man
This is Not a Film
The Waiting Room

BEST MAKE UP AND HAIRSTYLING

Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Looper
Men in Black 3
Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
John Carter
Life of Pi
Marvel’s The Avengers
Prometheus
Skyfall
Snow White and the Huntsman

As for my Oscar nominations predictions, they’ll be posted here on Tuesday. Happy Oscar predicting!

And as always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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2 responses to “85th Oscar Master List Nomination Predictions

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  1. When are you posting your ‘official’ predictions?

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