65th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 3: Comedy   Leave a comment

Hi everyone! It is still Emmy season over here at Tit for Tat, and I’m currently doing a four part blog post on who can find themselves nominated for TV’s top honor. As you may all know, the nominations will be revealed on Thursday, July 18 by Emmy winner Aaron Paul and Kate Mara. Since we’re done tackling the reality and variety, as well as the TV movie and miniseries genres, it’s time to move to the two biggest ones: comedy and drama. For this part, we’ll be focusing on the funny antics of television’s comedies.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy directing

• Arrested Development, Off the Hook (Mitchell Hurwitz, Troy Miller)
• Girls, On All Fours (Lena Duham)
• Louie, New Year’s Eve (Louis CK)
• Modern Family, Goodnight Gracie (Steven Levitan)
• 30 Rock, Hogcock!/Last Lunch (Beth McCarthy-Miller)

Sixth nominee: Modern Family, Party Crasher (Fred Savage)

Last year’s nominees Lena Dunham and Louis CK can find themselves nominated again this year for both of their directorial efforts in their respective shows. Louie has the advantage of submitting only one episode, but while the same cannot be said about Girls, Lena’s only directing submission can tower their show’s other submission. The finale episode of 30 Rock is also a safe bet for a nomination; after all, Beth McCarthy-Miller, despite 0 wins here, has been nominated multiple times already. Like Louie, Arrested Development only submitted one episode here, which makes them a shoo-in already. As for the last spot, it is the director’s branch that continuously loves to embrace Modern Family giving the show six nods in its first three seasons. I feel the lovefest will be continued as its season finale will reap up a nod for creator Steven Levitan.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy writing

• Arrested Development, Blockheads (Mitchell Hurwitz, Jim Vallelly)
• Girls, One Man’s Trash (Lena Duham)
• Louie, Daddy’s Girlfriend Part 1 (Louis CK)
• Modern Family, Goodnight Gracie (Steven Levitan, Jeffrey Richman)
• 30 Rock, Last Lunch (Tina Fey & Tracey Wigfield)

Sixth nominee: 30 Rock, Hogcock! (Jack Burditt & Robert Carlock)

Surprise, surprise. But I’m predicting the same five shows to be nominated for both Writing AND Directing Emmys this season. This means that my prediction is off base already. But then again, it seems like the Academy will be going for the same mindset as well. After being snubbed last year, I expect current winner Modern Family to be back in this race with their season finale episode, which is reminiscent of their stronger seasons. The pair of actor slash director slash write combo of Lena Dunham and Louis CK is still hot in Emmy’s eyes, and that results to at least a piece of Writing nods for their shows Girls and Louie respectively. Following their strategy in the Directing category, Arrested Development only submitted one episode here too, which makes it a shoo-in among its fans in the community. The last spot I give to the series finale of 30 Rock as the show is well loved by the writing block giving it lots of nominations and wins over the course of the show.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy guest actor

• Will Arnett, “30 Rock
• Matthew Broderick, “Modern Family
• Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory
• Martin Short, “Saturday Night Live
• Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live
• Patrick Wilson, “Girls

Seventh nominee: Ben Stiller, “Arrested Development

Will Arnett is the definition of a staple in this category. Over the years, he has been nominated multiple instances already for his role in 30 Rock, and I see them giving him one last nod for the show’s final season. There’s always an SNL performer nominated in this category ever since they start including them here, and for this year, alum Martin Short and 2x Emmy winner in this category Justin Timberlake are their best shots. Aside from SNL, Modern Family does really good with their guest actors in the show with the likes of Nathan Lane and Greg Kinnear getting nominated. This year, I expect Matthew Broderick to be the show’s rep in one of their most memorable episode this season. Still Emmyless TV legend Bob Newhart is finally in contention to have his first Emmy for his scene stealing role in The Big Bang Theory. The last slot I usually reserve for a movie star who does some buzz worthy memorable TV performance of the past season, and this year it’s Patrick Wilson for his controversial turn in Girls.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy guest actress

• Kate Hudson, “Glee
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live
• Liza Minnelli, “Arrested Development
• Sarah Jessica Parker, “Glee
• Elaine Stritch, “30 Rock
• Kristen Wiig, “Saturday Night Live

Seventh nominee: Elizabeth Banks, “Modern Family

I’m warning you now. This is one big mess of a prediction in this category. But let’s try to digest. First, just like last year, Melissa McCarthy’s SNL hosting duties is a shoo-in for a nomination. Add the fact that she might be snubbed for Comedy Lead Actress, and this is the perfect venue to nominate her. Joining her last year was SNL alumna Maya Rudolph, but this year it is four time nominee Kristen Wiig. Then we have Elaine Stritch. Yes, she was snubbed last year, but with how empty this category is, they might go back to one of its previous winners. Then we’d have Liza Minnelli. It’s interesting to note that the show has never garnered any Guest Acting nom. Yes, you’re reading it right. So the likes of Henry Winkler and Charlize Theron and Julia Louis Dreyfus have all been snubbed. But why am I predicting her? Lucille is a staple character in the show, and this might be Emmy’s way of correcting that past mistake. I’m not predicting any Louie actresses because I don’t know if the Emmys love the show to the point of nominating someone else whose name is not Louis CK. I’m not predicting Elizabeth Banks as well because of the fact that while Modern Family does great with their guest actors, the same can’t be said about their guest actresses: Shelley Long, Ellen Barkin, Minnie Driver. So if Elizabeth Banks didn’t make it during her first eligible year, then I don’t know how she’ll make it this year. That leaves me with… Glee. I know, I know. But this is the only category that loves that show the last few years and they always have a nominee in this category for its first three seasons. This year, I’m going with Kate Hudson’s buzzworthy turn as the NYADA instructor Cassandra July, and Sarah Jessica Parker’s comeback Emmy nod after her 2004 win.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy supp actor

• Will Arnett, “Arrested Development
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family
• Max Greenfield, “New Girl
• Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family
• Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family

Seventh nominee: Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”

Probably the most crowded category this year, I can name five or more actors that can still find their names in the final list. As for starters, there’s Simon Helberg in The Big Bang Theory, Jeffrey Tambor in Arrested Development, Tony Hale in Veep, Adam Driver in Girls,  and even host Neil Patrick Harris  in How I Met Your Mother. However, I’m sticking with the four Modern Family men in this category. The Emmys are always a season or two late when they do category overhaul, and last year proved that the show still has its clout in the Academy. The only thing that will convince me to remove any of them is when the Emmy start to actually do so. Until then, all of them are predicted here. Max Greenfield continues to be filling the scene-stealing over the top character that Neil Patrick Harris once filled, so it is safe to say he’ll be back again. And with many Arrested Development guys in contention, I’d be sticking with the one that has the flashiest performance in the group, and that happens to be Will Arnett.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy supp actress

• Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory
• Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
• Kaley Cuoco, “The Big Bang Theory
• Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family
• Jessica Walter, “Arrested Development
• Alison Williams, “Girls

Seventh nominee: Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock

We all know by now that the two Modern Family women are safe, so there’s no point in discussing that. With The Big Bang Theory getting even bigger as each season passes, I’m expecting last year’s surprise nominee Mayim Bialik to retain, and fan favorite Kaley Cuoco to finally be nominated along the ride. Jessica Walter is a past nominee for her performance in Arrested Development and she can fill in the TV veteran slot of the group. The last spot I give to newbie Alison Williams. it is pretty much destined that Girls will expand their acting noms in their succeeding seasons (just like how the other HBO female comedy Sex and the City did), so for now, I’m adding one Girls star and I think it’ll be Williams. I don’t know what to make of Krakowski’s chances, especially since they snub her strongest season last year for the likes of Merritt Wever, so while even if this is the show’s final season, the Emmys have a habit of forgetting you completely once they’re over you.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: 

comedy lead actor

• Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
• Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development
• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies
• Louis C.K, “Louie
• Jon Cryer “Two and a Half Men
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory

Seventh nominee: Matt Leblanc, “Episodes

For this one, past Emmy winners in this category Alec Baldwin and Jim Parsons can be counted as locks already. The same can actually be said about Jon Cryer. I have come to the conclusion that maybe the Emmy voters really see something in his performance that they keep on nominating him year after year after year after year. Once they finally drop him is when I’ll start to drop him in my predictions too. If you have been reading this blog from the beginning, you’ve noticed that I keep on reiterating that Louis CK is very much loved by the Academy, so that makes him a shoo-in as well. The last two slots can either go to any of three past nominees. The strange thing about it is that they’re all one time nominee only, so it’s hard to gauge how the Emmys will respond to them. But I’m going with Jason Bateman with the Arrested Development residual love, and movie star confidence vote in Don Cheadle. If all else fails, see Matt LeBlanc reap up his second nod for Episodes.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy lead actress

• Zooey Deschanel, “New Girl
• Lena Dunham, “Girls
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
• Tina Fey, “30 Rock
• Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation

Seventh nominee: Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly

Basically, if there’s anything that our seven women lineup last year taught us, it’s the fact that you just have to choose who to drop here.  The triumvirate of SNL alumnae of current winner Julia Louis Dreyfus, Tina Fey, and Amy Poehler are sure bets here. The same can be said for the “female Louis CK” Lena Dunham. Then you have Edie Falco, who’s like the perennial Emmy favorite, and I don’t see her being dropped by the Academy this year. That leaves us with Zooey Deschanel and Melissa McCarthy. It’s actually easy to say that McCarthy has the upper hand since she’s a past winner in this category and she’s the only representative of the traditional comedy set up. However, they can also reward her in Comedy Guest Actress. With that said, I’m sticking with it girl Zooey Deschanel whose show received major buzz for its second season.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:

comedy series

• The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Girls (HBO)
Louie (FX)
Modern Family (ABC)
30 Rock (NBC)
Veep (HBO)

Seventh nominee: Arrested Development (Netflix)

First, let me say that I’m expecting that the final line up will actually consist of seven nominees. But I’m sticking to six just because it’s really the actual number of nominations here. Okay so where do I even begin? Let’s go with current champ Modern Family. I don’t see a scenario of it getting snubbed. Period. The same can be said for CBS’ The Big Bang Theory. With its huge ratings, it is very much expected that it’ll also get in. 3x Emmy champ 30 Rock is another sure contender. After all, it is the final season of a once Emmy favorite. You can’t go wrong with that. Then you’d have Girls. As much as it is a very polarizing and divisive show, the Emmys has showered it with love last year, and as HBO’s watercooler show, I expect it to be in the final six too. Now here’s the part where it gets confusing. On one hand. there’s Arrested Development. It’s 2004’s Best Comedy Series winner, has a cult following, and the Emmys are one of the firsts who basically embraced it. However, its Netflix airing plus its puzzling critical reception makes it vulnerable for the top slot. On the other, you have Veep. It is a current nominee with high caliber Emmy magnet names that surround it. With that said, one can’t avoid seeing it as the Julia Louis Dreyfus show. If it gets nominated, I can’t see where it expands its nominations. It’s not a top contender for writing, directing, and not even acting. Where will the support come from then? Then you have Louie. Everything Louis CK touches makes it an Emmy contender. Everything that is, except getting in the Comedy Series category. Last year, we saw it even win Writing and getting nominated in Directing and Acting, and it has the critics on its side but it still failed to grab a Series nod. With no current season buzz to help it, I can’t help but think that it can follow the same trajectory as Roseanne. A show where in they love everything Roseanne related, but it still wasn’t able to get that Comedy Series nod. In the end, I dropped Arrested Development, as it’s the only show where I can see a scenario where in it gets a lot of nods but barely missing the top category.

Ooh that was long! Who are you rooting for in the comedy categories? Can Bob Newhart finally win an Emmy? Will all Modern Family guys make it in Supporting Actor? And what do you think among Arrested Development, Louie, and Veep will get the boot? 🙂

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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