2005: “Warm Springs” [CORRECT] and “Empire Falls” [WRONG]
2006: “The Girl in the Cafe” [CORRECT] and “Elizabeth I” [CORRECT]
2007: “Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee” [CORRECT] and “Prime Suspect: Final Act” [WRONG]
2008: “Recount” [CORRECT] and “John Adams” [CORRECT]
2009: “Grey Gardens” [CORRECT] and “Generation Kill” [WRONG]
2010: “You Don’t Know Jack” [WRONG] and “The Pacific” [CORRECT]
2011: “Downton Abbey” [CORRECT]
2012: “Game Change” [CORRECT]
Now that we’re done with the three acting categories here (Haven’t made up my mind yet on who’ll win Lead Actress), it’s time to move on with the main program award by discussing the Best Movie or Miniseries category. It’s almost a moot to even tackle each category comprehensively, as there seems to be a clear winner here already. The Steven Soderbergh directed film Behind the Candelabra is obviously winning the top prize. With great reviews, a historic Cannes competition participation, and overwhelming reception, this is one of the easier to predict wins for the night. The closest runner-up I can come up with is Sundance Channel’s Top of the Lake which also received unanimously great reviews and probably the little contender that could.
As for the others, despite American Horror Story: Asylum dominating the nominations with a whooping 17(!) nods and topping all the other programs this year, it will clearly follow the path of its predecessor last year safely winning an acting award (or two). The mere fact that it continues to dominate the noms yet it can’t break through the directing AND writing categories speaks volumes about its actual support in the Academy. Phil Spector is the typical HBO filler category year like what Hemingway & Gellhorn was last year and You Don’t Know Jack was the year before. It contains two movie stars in lead roles, but doesn’t really have anything else in its corner.
After History’s history breaking ratings with Hatfields & McCoys last year, they continue to beat their own record in terms of ratings for miniseries, with The Bible this year. Sadly for them, the nomination for their achievement is their main reward seeing that it only got in two other categories. As for Political Animals, you can use the same analogy to Phil Spector, only replace HBO with USA.
As I’ve mentioned, it will be an easy win for Behind the Candelabra, and may I say deservedly so? J
Prediction: “Behind the Candelabra”
Runner-Up: “Top of the Lake”
1. “Behind the Candelabra”
2. “Top of the Lake”
3. “American Horror Story: Asylum”
4. “Phil Spector”
5. “Political Animals”
6. “The Bible”
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