2005: “Desperate Housewives” [WRONG]
2006: “The Office”[CORRECT]
2007: “The Office” [WRONG]
2008: “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2009: “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2010: “Modern Family” [CORRECT]
2011: “Modern Family” [CORRECT]
2012: “Modern Family” [CORRECT]
We’re down to the last two categories of this year’s Emmy awards, and we’ll begin with the highest honor in Comedy. With no Curb Your Enthusiasm eligible this season, one slot was available and critical darlign Louie made it in over 3x nominee and 2004 Arrested Development and a lauded sophomore season of New Girl.
The two HBO comedies managed to hold on their spots for a consecutive year now though Veep over performed with two more acting nominations despite no directing and writing nods under its belt. Girls, on the other hand, underperformed with no writing nod now, though it managed to add one more acting nom for Adam Driver and another directing nomination. Sadly for them, they’re also the two weakest nominees in this category.
Speaking of no directing and writing nods, The Big Bang Theory is enjoying an all time high of Emmy love for a critically and commercially well received sixth season. Winning from the Critics Choice and the TCAs this year, the show is doing very well and has been the landmark of network comedies in the midst of a struggling rating natures. With that said, its lack of directing and writing nods will hurt, as only one show managed to pull off that feat in 2002 and that was NBC’s Friends. Now one can claim that both depended on the huge ratings factor under their name, but Friends was on an all time pop culture status at the time it won the award. I don’t think Big Bang can survive the lack of directing and writing nods to pull off the win.
This year’s most critically lauded show, Louie, is also FX’s first time in this category. There’s no doubt that Louis CK is a god among Emmy voters, and that he is the it thing now. But I’m not yet confident that they’ll hand it the top prize. Maybe in the next few years, but this one is a triumph of acknowledging the show for the top category instead of giving it the win already. Let’s see how the show will be received on Sunday to gauge its future chances (though it’s off to a good start with Melissa Leo’s win earlier this week).
As for the last two contenders here, both Modern Family and 30 Rock are contending for a fourth Emmy win. 30 Rock has the advantage of going with its last season, and it is the last time to reward one of Emmy’s most loved shows of the aughts. But if history is any indication, only one show in the last decade has won for its final season (Everybody Loves Raymond in 2005). 30 Rock has been winning nothing for the last two three years, so I’m having my reservations if they’d go reward it again all of a sudden. I think they’ll give its due some category else and not here.
Given all that conditions, I’d say that in the end, Modern Family will skate in for a fourth consecutive win. This might have been their most vulnerable win if ever, but let’s gauge if there will be a fatigue of the show already. I’m not bothered with their lackluster submissions since it has been a habit for the show to do that, and I’m also not bothered with their lack of Creative Emmys win since that also happened in Season 2 yet they swept all their nominated televised awards. The thing is, if one needs to unseat MF from this category, we need one strong viable alternate, and not multiple semi-strong ones, as its tendency is that the anti-MF votes will scatter all over the place. So yes, for this year, I’m predicting a Modern Family fourpeat.
Prediction: “Modern Family”
Runner-Up: “30 Rock”
1. “Modern Family”
2. “30 Rock”
4. “The Big Bang Theory”
You can see my other Emmy predictions here.
Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl