65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama series

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Lost [CORRECT]
2006: 
Grey’s Anatomy” [WRONG] 
2007: 
The Sopranos” [CORRECT]
2008: 
Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2009: 
Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2010: 
Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2011: 
Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2012: 
Downton Abbey” [WRONG] 

And we’ve finally come to the end of this month long series of Emmy predictions. This is the last part of the 23+ categories that I’ve been writing for the past month or so. It is indeed wise to save the best for last with the top Emmy category for achievement in drama. There have been no serious major snub in this category this year, though HBO’s Boardwalk Empire finally bid out of this race and Netflix’s House of Cards took its place.

Last year, I predicted Downton Abbey for the win just because I thought it will be the gamechanger since it literally swept a lot of nominations. After all, it’s coming from a strong second season and was seen as the cool “it” show of last season. None of those factors work here anymore, so if they can’t win with a much buzzed season last year, I doubt it will pull off a late win for this one.

Mad Men has won four consecutive back to back series from 2008-2011 and it had its first major shutout last year. I think the trend will continue this year, though they’ll have the extra year to still pull off a fifth series win and a possible acting victory with the news of their last season being divided into two parts.

Netflix made history with its first series nod via House of Cards. However, unlike 2008 when cable (that is not named HBO) managed to win the top award, I don’t the situation is ripe yet for a Netflix victory. After all, in 2008, it wasn’t only Mad Men who benefits from a cable advantage. There were also Damages, Breaking Bad, and Dexter benefiting from the said narrative, so they are well represented. This year, its nomination is the reward for the huge gamble.

Game of Thrones just finished their best season yet in terms of critics and audience with the Red Wedding episode being the season’s highlight. It would have put them near the frontrunner status, but I don’t think it is enough to overcome the genre bias of the voters. As a consolation though, it is the closest they’ve ever been to in terms of chances in their three year stay in this category.

In the end, it’s still a battle between current champ Homeland defending its position, and current it show Breaking Bad with their second to the last season. On one hand, Homeland despite receiving mixed reception for their second season can still not be compared to the sophomore slump of other shows. Besides, the key here is submission, and they submitted really well. The show had an increase in nominations and the Emmys usually tend to stick longer to a show as compared to the critics who shift picks from season to season.

On the other, Breaking Bad benefits from the fact that the voting season happened during the release of their finale season. So odds are, the buzz is higher than ever. The nominations also increased this year with them finally conquering the writing categories (and with two nominations at that). It is clearly a show that is too big to ignore that it’s already a shoo-in for next year’s Drama Series award even if all the other contenders aren’t starting their seasons yet.

In the end, I think that will put Homeland at a slight advantage over Breaking Bad. Sure, the buzz right now is deafening, but I don’t think they’ll reward it for the first part of a divided season. Even The Sopranos waited for the last season when it got its second win. With the show ultimately being a lock for next year’s category, they’d more likely wait for it by then to reward it. In that manner, they can give another win to Homeland which is clearly another show that they love.

Prediction: Homeland
Runner-Up: Breaking Bad

Full Rankings:
1. “Homeland
2. “Breaking Bad
3. “Game of Thrones
4. “Downton Abbey”
5. “Mad Men
6. “House of Cards

You can see my other Emmy predictions here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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