20th Screen Actors Guild Awards Nominations Predictions   Leave a comment

This year’s precursor week is on the way with the televised awards show unveiling their own nominations, and there’s no betetr way to start the awards season with the actors guild. The Screen Actors Guild, voted by 3000+ members of the Actors Guild both in film and television, will kickstart this year as they announce their nominations on Wednesday morning. Here are my predictions on 13 different acting categories.

FILM NOMINEES:

film ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniel’s The Butler
Nebraska

NEXT IN LINE: Prisoners; Blue Jasmine; Saving Mr. Banks; The Wolf of Wall Street

Basically the counterpart of the Best Picture category, the SAG usually follows the Best Picture frontrunners and nominate their cast here, but most of the time, go on their own way and choose one to two “ensembly” nominees. This year, there’s no much buzier casting than those of August: Osage CountyAmerican Hustle, and Lee Daniels’ The Butler12 Years a Slave benefits from being the current frontrunner and with a cast of respected and known actors, so I’m sure they’re a shoo-in. For the last slot, the SAG usually balances these big ensembles with small ones, and with its strong precursor support the past week, I’m thinking Nebraska will fill in the last slot. Don’t be shocked if NBR Ensemble winner Prisoners, or active SAG campaigners Saving Mr. Banks also makes it. But by sending no screeners this year, don’t expect Wolf of Wall Street to factor in at the race this year.

film actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Bruce Dern, “Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years A Slave
Tom Hanks, “Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, “All is Lost

NEXT IN LINE: Leonardo di Caprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street“; Forest Whitaker, “Lee Daniels’ The Butler“; Michael B. Jordan, “Fruitvale Station

Like last year, this category has ended up with six men fighting for five slots. Last year, Joaquin Phoenix missed this one but ended up bumping John Hawkes at the Oscars. This year, it’ll be an easier task to leave di Caprio off the top five since they’ll be sending no screeners for the 3000+ voters. Sure they did a screening or two, but that trumps by the other five contenders whose films were sent to all voters of the guild.

film actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, “Gravity
Judi Dench, “Philomena
Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, “Saving Mr. Banks

NEXT IN LINE: Amy Adams, “American Hustle“; Brie Larson, “Short Term 12“; Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Enough Said

Like the actors category, this has ended up into a six woman race. Right now, the consensus is on Amy Adams missing the SAG because American Hustle was the last film of all six to send a screener to the voting guild. Besides, the SAG has shown history of snubbing Amy just a year ago for The Master. With that said, I don’t see this affecting Adams’ Oscar chances at all. She was just weakened by the weird scheduling of SAG voting. Now, if one of the five ladies above fail to grab a SAG nod (leading to Amy’s nod), then I can see that woman failing to get the Oscar nod as well.

film supp actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, “Enough Said
Tom Hanks, “Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club

NEXT IN LINE: Harrison Ford, “42“; Chris Cooper, “August: Osage County“; Will Forte, “Nebraska“; Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips

I know you’re wondering no Adams in Actress but I have Bradley Cooper in here. But there’s only one word to describe this category: CLUSTERFUCK. I swear at least ten contenders seem to fit the bill on who can get nominated here, so it’s basically just choosing who at the moment. Maybe the moment I post this I have another set of predictions already. For now I think Michael Fassbender and Jared Leto are safe no matter what. I put in Tom Hanks there since Saving Mr. Banks did a lot of screenings and Q&As for SAG members, and it will pay off with noms for both Thompson and Hanks. The great late James Gandolfini is such a very SAG pick after receiving a dozen nods in the past for The Sopranos. Remember that the TV people encompass a lot of the overall SAG voters, so this helps him more as well. Now as for Bradley Cooper, American Hustle has sent in screeners and he seems to fit the contender who’ll do well in televised awards show. Don’t count out Harrison Ford (who campaigned a lot to SAG members too), Chris Cooper (who SAG loves to give individual nods), Will Forte (another TV star in a possible Ensemble contender), and Barkhad Abdi (young male ingenue SAG loves to recognize) for nods as well.

film supp actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County
June Squibb, “Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, “Lee Daniels’ The Butler

NEXT IN LINE: Octavia Spencer, “Fruitvale Station“; Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine“; Margo Martindale, “August: Osage County

Now these five women have been out in front that it can end up as our actual nominees as well. Octavia Spencer can find ehrself getting nommed here if only Fruitvale is getting buzz in other categories, but that doesn’t seem like the case. The onky other possible challenger I see is Margo Martindale since she is a respected TV veteran who’s enjoying the late surge of breakthroughs in her career. But then again, I don’t think August will prevail with two nods here even if it’s such an actory film.

TELEVISION NOMINEES:

tv drama ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES:
American Horror Story: Coven
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Homeland
Orange is the New Black

 

NEXT IN LINE: House of Cards; Game of Thrones; Mad Men

Last year was Homeland‘s first year of existence at the SAGs, and I don’t see them dropping the show off already as much as the internet people perceive will happen. Last year’s winner Downton Abbey will surely be back, as well as the most buzzed show of the year Breaking Bad. Then you also have the most buzzed new show of the year which is Orange is the New Black, and this is the type of female driven ensemble dramedies that SAG is guilty of nominating (Boston Legal, Desperate Housewives, Weeds). I think by now, Coven is a wishful thinking on my part, but how can they resist the triumvirate of Jessica Lange, Kathy Bates, and ANgela Bassett!?! Well I’m pretty sure they’ll be snubbed for multiple time winner Mad Men or it show Game of Thrones, so let me cherish this wishful thinking nod even for a second.

tv drama actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men
Damian Lewis,”Homeland
Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards

NEXT IN LINE: Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom“; Michael Sheen, “Masters of Sex“; Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire

The SAG TV committee is quite slow in recognizing a lot of new shows (remember the Homeland snub two years ago?), so I don’t see Masters of Sex factoring in at the race this year. Nevertheless, the sheer movie star power of Kevin Spacey is enough for him to breakthrough this category. Aside from perennial nominees Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm, I’m calling a consecutive Damian Lewis nod and finally an individual nomination for Aaron Paul. Don’t count out Emmy winner Jeff Daniels though as he got in last year, and same goes for Steve Buscemi (remind me again why I only have him in Next in Line even if he just won this two years ago?).

tv drama actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Claire Danes, “Homeland
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story Coven
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey
Kerry Washington, “Scandal

NEXT IN LINE: Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel“; Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad“; Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story Coven

If the male drama counterpart is quite empty, then consider the ladies department different, as it has a lot of contenders battling out for five slots here. Well let’s just say the likes of current winner Claire Danes’ spot is already reserved. The same goes for the winner two years ago, Jessica Lange, who got in for the other two Horror franchise, so I’d say a streak is still happening. Another winner two years ago is Dame Maggie Smith, despite being a show at all American awards show the past three years, continues to rake in the nods, and she’d get in once again. I have my reservation for Julianna Margulies, but I guess when it comes to this good wife, never underestimate the SAG love for her, as she’s the most rewarded female actor in SAG history. The last spot is basically up for grabs though I’d give the edge to current entertainment it girl Kerry Washington to follow her Emmy nod with a SAG one.

tv comedy ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES:
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
Nurse Jackie
Veep

NEXT IN LINE: Girls; Arrested Development; Glee

They snubbed  Girls last year (over has been seasons of Glee and The Office, so that says a lot), and I don’t see them warming up after a more divisive second season. It’s probably too hip for the SAG taste. Despite their non-eligibility, SAG allowed 30 Rock to compete again this year, so that only means it’s scoring a nod. Big Bang Theory and Modern Family continues to rake in the ratings and the acclaim, so they’re shoo-in here. Then there’s also Nurse Jackie who amde a surprise showing last year. If anything, this category is clingy to shows they’ve nominated many times before even after their prime (Desperate Housewives, Will & Grace, Glee, The Office), and seems like this Showtime dramedy fits that bill. I’d say the last spot goes to Veep, as it continues to ascend its clout among gu

tv comedy actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
Michael J. Fox, “The Michael J. Fox Show
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family”

NEXT IN LINE: Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development“; Don Cheadle, “House of Lies“; Robin Williams, “The Crazy Ones

Why even bother discuss this category when we know the still undefeated Alec Baldwin will win it for the eighth straight year??!?! But of course that’s part of the fun I guess. Aside from Baldwin, we have perennial nominees Ty Burrell and Eric Stonstreet who’d add another nod in their tally. Jim Parsons finally made the breakthrough this year, so I don’t see him missing. The last spot is a crazy one. They’ve never cared for House of Lies in the past, and they’re not eager on rewarding freshman shows easily. I don’t think a lukewarm and almost unfelt season of Arrested Development will make waves here, so I’ll just assume that they’d see Michael J. Fox’s name and they’d quickly check it.

tv comedy actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, “30 Rock
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family
Betty White, “Hot in Cleveland

NEXT IN LINE: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation“; Lena Dunham, “Girls“; Julie Bowen, “Modern Family

SAG loves ’em Sopranos, so aside from Tony, Carmela gets another individual nod for Nurse Jackie. I think her and the show is their new The Closer, which they’ll basically just nominate every year. Like Alec, Tina will surely snoop in another nomination for 30 Rock. Both Sofia and Betty White can be replaced this year had there been stronger contenders, but they’ve been nominated multiple times consecutively the last few years that I don’t see any shake out that will follow. If anything, I’d just think they’ll finally recognize Veep exists as a show and nominate its cast and lead star, Julia Louis Dreyfus.

moviemini actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra
Michael Douglas, “Behind the Candelabra
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Dancing on the Edge
Al Pacino, “Phil Spector
Christopher Plummer, “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

NEXT IN LINE: Ben Whishaw, “The Hollow Crown“; Benedict Cumberbatch, “Parade’s End“; Idris Elba, “Luther

Oscar winners Michael Douglas, Matt Damon, and Al Pacino are all done deal and locks now, so basically it just leaves two spots open. The SAGs have never cared for anything Luther or Sherlock and Cumberbatch in the past, so I’m leaving out both Idris Elba and Benedict Cumberbatch. But they tend to love their Brits and English lads so maybe Ben Whishaw has a chance. I guess with a strong year for 12 Years a Slave, Chiwetel Ejiofor can carry another nod here, as that is such a SAG thing to do (to nominate an actor both for his film AND TV performance the same year; see: Nicole Kidman and Maggie Smith last year as for starters). Then the last spot I just predicted Christopher Plummer because they also love their old men slash veterans here.

moviemini actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Helena Bonham Carter, “Burton and Taylor
Holly Hunter, “Top of the Lake
Elisabeth Moss, “Top of the Lake
Laura Linney, “The Big C: Hereafter
Helen Mirren, “Phil Spector

NEXT IN LINE: Angela Bassett, “Betty and Coretta“; Hilary Swank, “Mary and Martha“; Gillian Anderson, “The Fall

Emmy nominated for their performances, Helen Mirren, Elisabeth Moss, and eventual winner Laura Linney are easy calls in this category. And despite her snub, maybe Oscar winner Holly Hunter’s physically challenging performance in Top of the Lake can get in as well. After all. SAGs aren’t totally observant of performances Emmys snub. Then to complete the list, Helena Bonham Carter can waltz her way with a nod in her Elizabeth Taylor portrayal after Lindsay Lohan did hers.

There you have it! As a reminder, the 20th Screen Actors Guild nominations will be announced on Wednesday, December 11 by Sasha Alexander and Clark Gregg.

If you have questions, you can pipe them in below. Also, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

 

 

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