Hi there! It’s the second month of Oscar predicting. Basically this month, I’m still mostly going on assumptions here (I mean it’s April after all. It’s the time to do some foolish predictions). This month’s changes were due to the announcement of this year’s Cannes lineup and some teasers and trailers from movies like that of Get On Up, Foxcatcher, and Gone Girl. Anyway, here’s the state of race in the main six categories this year:

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

Hey everyone! I’ve decided to do one for April as well since the race is clearly shaping up with most network shows on the tail end of their respective seasons and cable ones started to premiere as well. We’ve also heard some shows finalizing their placements and genre assignments which usually produce the good (Alison Janney stays in Supporting for Mom), the bad (hmm.. can True Detective topple Breaking Bad for drama series) and the WTF (Shameless living up to its title switching genres four seasons after. LOL). I’ve controlled myself from doing write ups of category first and will probably do so starting next month (or maybe June). Here are some updates though:

* True Detective officially competes in Drama categories. This means that the confidence of HBO in Game of Thrones is not that high. They’re probably aware that genre shows rarely do well, and that it will not be enough to beat Breaking Bad. However, they’re also gambling four easy Emmy wins (Miniseries, Writing, Directing, and McConaughey) to anywhere between zero to four wins (though I’m confident McConaughey will easily win with or without Cranston, and that they’ll get one of the Writing or Directing (leaning to the latter).
* Meanwhile, Orange is the New Black and Shameless campaign in comedy. Orange can be summed up by the fact that Netflix already has House of Cards in drama and nothing in comedy. But if reports are true that the sophomore season will be more dramatic, then they might be screwed. As for Shameless, I still don’t get it. Eitherway, Joan Cusack will probably get another lazy consecutive nomination.
* In the long form categories, The Fall is not eligible so cross Gillian Anderson off your list. The Sound of Music is competing in Special Class Program, but the rest of the cast are eligible for acting nominations here. 24: Live Another Day claims they won’t have enough material to show to be eligible so that’s another ineligible show. Sherlock is still tricky. The last time they’re eligible, they submit in TV Movie (with their season opener) instead of submitting the whole show in Miniseries. I’m guessing they’ll apply the same format so I have it there. They could have probably benefited from the lack of True Detective in Minsieries, but seems like Fargo stole their thunder already.

Anyway, here are my predictions this month:

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl