And we’re off to the last week of our Emmy analysis coverage here at Tit for Tat. With only six remaining categories left, let’s begin analyzing the lead acting races this week and start with the comedic actors to figure out if Jim Parsons can tie that record of most number of wins in this category, or if Louis C.K can add an acting Emmy to his mantle, if Shameless‘ switch to comedy genre is fruitful, and if Matt LeBlanc be the third Friend to be an Emmy winner.
Now on his third consecutive nomination, Don Cheadle still is aiming for his first career Emmy win. This year, for House of Lies, he opted with the season opener entitled “Wreckage“, his character dealt with his company decision and his confusing romance with co-worker Jeannie. There’s a scene in the middle of the episode where he talks directly to the audience while everything else is frozen. They also touched some relationship issues between him and his son. personally speaking, I’ve don’t dig House of Lies‘ humor, but I don’t think even that will affect when I say I don’t think Cheadle is winning.
After four seasons, 2x Emmy winner William H. Macy manages to get his first ever acting nomination for Shameless, thanks to their shift from the drama to the comedy category. However, it could not have come to a more awkward season since this was the show’s most dramatic season by far. In his submission “Lazarus“, Frank adjusts from the aftermath of his liver transplant surgery. While both his daughter and his new wife battle over custody, his son takes him out to Chicago where he gave him a bottle of whiskey after learning he can’t drink anymore. This is the most dramatic episode of the bunch and a stand out literally among all these comedic fares. He also has a monologue at the end, though prior to that, there’s nothing much worthy to see in his hour-long episode.
For his fourth nod in a row, Louis C.K has submitted “Model” which is a different approach from his usual submissions. This is arguably his funniest submission by far. The first half of the episode had him doing a flop opening for Jerry Seinfeld in a charity event. While his jokes aren’t really funny, it provides the opposite effect to the viewers who find the unfortunate moment hilarious. The latter part of the episode is the more humorous one when he leaves with a model and they had the unfortunate sex incident of him accidentally punching her. While this is a competitive submission from Louis C.K, there is still an existing bias regarding the type of this comedy in this category as proven by the no Emmy acting wins for Jerry Seinfeld and Larry David, and I don’t think this will change any time soon.
Since that upset win he did in 2007, Ricky Gervais is back to provide he’s no fluke, as he’s now nominated for the Netflix show Derek. He submitted the second season finale where in he tries to learn how to ride a bicycle, goes on a date, and deals with his father’s condition. In it, Gervais displays the perfect Emmy winning recipe of having range, impact, laughs, screentime, and empathy. The only con I can see his way is that if voters aren’t really digging his character or if they find the acting really off in it. That said, there’s a real possibility that he’d go 2/2 in this category this year.
At this point, 3x Emmy champ Jim Parsons probably knows that his ticket to an Emmy is by Sheldon getting drunk as proven by his two Emmy winning Emmy submissions. Does it really come in threes? Well in his episode “The Relationship Diremption“, Sheldon deals with some sort of a life crisis and attempts to change some perspectives in it unintentionally including getting drunk with Penny. We then see the after effects of such with all the crazy things he has done the night before. This follows the same prototype of his winning submissions, so it isn’t much of a stretch to say that he can be rewarded again for it.
And lastly we have Matt Leblanc in his third nomination for Episodes. In Episode 306, we witness Matt (playing himself the actor) ranting about the British invasion in Hollywood after losing a coveted role to one. This follows to him seeing a young hot girl on set and had a sexual intercourse with her only to find out who that girl was. The bit about the British invasion hits too close to home that I can see it garnering him some votes. It also helps him that there’s a Friends reference in the middle of the episode where he mentions his famous catchphrase “How you doin?” Leblanc has been nominated six times in this category now (three each for Friends and Episodes) and if voters are in a rewarding mood, then he might just luck this year.
I’ve always had a spotty record here the past few years. The one time that I predicted Jim Parsons was the year he lost to Jon Cryer. The three times that he did though, I predicted Larry David, Steve Carell, and Alec Baldwin respectively. So I highly advise you do the opposite this time around. But then again, we’re talking about a historic tying an Emmy record fourth win here, and with Big Bang Theory still having three seasons left of it, are they really rushing to give Parsons a fourth one? I’m inclined to think no; thus, I’m going with Ricky Gervais. He managed to pull off the upset in 2007, I’d say with his tape this year, he can achieve the same feat. If not him, then this somewhat weak of a category can be ripe for a Matt LeBlanc overdue upset.
Prediction: Ricky Gervais, “Derek“
Alternate: Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes“
01. Ricky Gervais, “Derek“
02. Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes“
03. Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
04. Louis C.K, “Louie”
05. William H. Macy, “Shameless”
06. Don Cheadle, “House of Lies“
Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.
For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl