21st Screen Actors Guild Awards Nominations Predictions   Leave a comment

It’s the busiest time of the year to become an awards prognosticator, as the two biggest televised Oscar precursors are announcing their picks this week. First up we have the Screen Actors Guild Awards, composed of thousands of members of the SAG-AFTRA committee, who will reveal their picks this Wednesday. As always, I’ll be predicting who will be up for an “Actor” in all 13 acting categories in both film and television medium.

FILM NOMINEES:

film ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE:

Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods

NEXT IN LINE: Selma, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Theory of Everything

Birdman and Boyhood are shoo-ins at this point. Birdman is an actors’ film about actors, and they’d have no hesitations nominating it. Boyhood, albeit a small ensemble, is the most critically lauded film of the year, so it’ll easily make the cut as well. The Imitation Game fills the slot of that raditional Oscar baity contender who’ll easily get in the precursors. Into the Woods is that huge ensemble-y film that hits two of SAG’s usual requirements in this category: its fairly known huge cast and their love for musicals. The last spot however can still go to three different directions: Selma (despite no screeners sent), Foxcatcher (who’s sweeping the early Ensemble awards) and ultimately my prediction Gone Girl (a fairly huge ensemble that was well praised in that aspect and has lots of TV actors in its cast which bodes well from the AFTRA members).

film lead actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, “Birdman
David Oyelowo, “Selma
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything

NEXT IN LINE: Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper“; Matthew McConaughey, “Interstellar“; Ben Affleck, “Gone Girl

Four slots are already occupied here for SAG: Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, and Carell. Say what you want about Steve Carell’s Oscar chances but here at SAG, he’s safe. He’s a multiple time nominee for The Office, and he’s one that I see ignites passion from the actors guild. The last spot is a bit trickier though: Bradley Cooper has been nominated the past two years, and his weight gain transformation can make it three in a row. Then there’s also the two lead actors from two of the biggest films of the year, box-office wise via Gone Girl‘s Ben Affleck and current category champ Matthew McConaughey of Interstellar. Me thinks they’d be targeting the same crowd, thus leading to a path for a David Oyelowo nod instead overcoming its lack of screeners.

film lead actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl
Hilary Swank, “The Homesman
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild

NEXT IN LINE: Emily Blunt, “Into the Woods“; Amy Adams, “Big Eyes“; Shailene Woodley, “The Fault in Our Stars

Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Rosamund Pike, and Felicity Jones have no problem getting in this pretty empty field. But as always, it’s the fifth spot that ignites all these debates. If SAG continues to be pretty populist, then Shailene Wooldey might pop up here for her turn as cancer-stricken patient in The Fault in Our Stars. If they really go gaga over Into the Woods (which is fairly possible), then expect Emily Blunt to be swept along the ride. Amy Adams has been snubbed for her last two performances here in SAG, and this time she’s not starring in a Best Picture contender so who knows? I guess I’ve learned from past mistakes (to be specific, my 2010 mistake) and to never underestimate Hilary Swank again. She got an out of the field nod for Conviction that year, and with the amount of pleasing and campaigning she’s doing this year, a random mention for The Homesman is what I’m predicting will complete the lineup.

film supp actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Robert Duvall, “The Judge
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood
Edward Norton, “Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash

NEXT IN LINE: Christoph Waltz, “Big Eyes“; Josh Brolin, “Inherent Vice“; Tom Wilkinson, “Selma

Frontrunner J.K. Simmons, as well as Edward Norton, Mark Ruffalo, and Ethan Hawke are all safe now and can expect to hear their names get in this category. That said, who joins them is what the question of this category begs to ask. If they’ve seen Big Eyes enough in time, then I can see Christoph waltzing his way to a nomination (I think it’ll be both nominated or both snubbed situation for him and Amy Adams, and I’m predicting the latter). Then there’s Josh Brolin who’s been working so hard the last few years that they’d probably just nominate him for his scene-stealing performance in Inherent Vice. While I doubt that Selma can take two individual nods in it, it’s perennial character actor Tom Wilkinson talking about here, so maybe he can still get in. Alas, I’m going with screen legend Robert Duvall for the fifth spot. This smells like that random SAG veteran slot, and they seemed to be enamored with him even giving Duvall a Best Actor nod for Get Low four years ago.

film supp actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, “A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods
Emma Stone, “Birdman

NEXT IN LINE: Laura Dern, “Wild“; Anna Kendrick, “Into the Woods

Can you believe that this is Meryl Streep’s first Supporting nomination in SAG history? Well yep it’s finally happening. Same goes for other first time Supporting Actress contenders Emma Stone, Patricia Arquette, and Keira Knightley. The last spot though is between Wild‘s Laura Dern and A Most Violent Year‘s Jessica Chastain. There is basically a path for both women en route to a nom, but I guess I’ll just go with Chastain to receive her third individual SAG nod here.

TELEVISION NOMINEES:

tv drama ensemble

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES:
American Horror Story: Freak Show
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
House of Cards

NEXT IN LINE: True Detective, Boardwalk Empire, Masters of Sex

Here I go again risking and predicting an American Horror Story season to get in as if I haven’t learned my lesson yet last year. And over True Detective while we’re at that. While there’s a 90% chance that I’ll be wrong, the only reason I’m risking it is because True Detective is basically the Matthew and Woody show, and they’d obviously get individual noms already. Plus, the casting for AHS every season continues to be bigger with more names attached so here’s some wishful thinking that they’ll get in this year. As for the rest of the pack, this is a very weak field that I’m going with old favorites: Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, The Good Wife, and House of Cards.

tv drama actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
Woody Harrelson, “True Detective
Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards
James Spader, “The Blacklist

NEXT IN LINE: Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom“; Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire“; Michael Sheen, “Masters of Sex

Matthew, Kevin, and Woody are all in easily (though I really have no idea if they’re placing True Detective here or in the longform categories). Peter Dinklage continues to be the go to supporting actor representative that’s why I’m predicting him again. The final slot can go to a lot of ways but SAG being a very populist group might give one of their usual favorites a bone for having a top rater show, so I’m throwing James Spader’s name into the mix.

tv drama actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Freak Show
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife
Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey
Kerry Washington, “Scandal
Robin Wright, “House of Cards

NEXT IN LINE: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder“; Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show“; Claire Danes, “Homeland

La Lange has been nominated for all her three previous AHS seasons, so I don’t think they’ll stop now in a season where she literally has broken legs. Robin Wright meanwhile seems like an easy call for a nod, and I think they’d embrace Julianna Margulies again after snubbing her for a year. I would have easily ditched Maggie Smith in this line up, but damn if she wasn’t strong enough that she pulled off the surprise win last year and is this category’s champ. For that last spot, it’s between the two Shonda representatives: I don’t think Kerry Washington is a one and done deal here, and I felt that despite her respect in the industry, it won’t be easy for SAG to embrace How to Get Away with Murder especially in a competent field like this one.

tv comedy ensemb;e

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES:
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
Nurse Jackie
Orange is the New Black
Veep

NEXT IN LINE: Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Parks and Recreation, Silicon Valley

The foursome ensemble of Big Bang Theory, Modern Family, Orange is the New Black,  and Veep are easy calls here. What happens after is the trickier part though. They’ve snubbed Brooklyn Nine-Nine  last year, and I don’t think they’ve elicited enough respect to suddenly get in here. Silicon Valley is a decent choice, but it’s a tamed one considering they did not touch Girls within a ten-inch pole even during the times when it was the watercooler show. So I’m throwing a random nod to Nurse Jackie knowing that they’ve already nominated the ensemble before.

tv comedy actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
Louis C.K., “Louie
Don Cheadle, “House of Lies
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory
Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent

NEXT IN LINE: Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine“; Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes“; Robin Williams, “The Crazy Ones

How I’ve really wished they can finally let go of their Don Cheadle hard on, but it seems like he’ll just continue to coast for the next few awards shows. Jim Parsons, current winner Ty Burrell, and Louis CK are quite the obvious calls. I don’t know if I’m being too optimistic about considering Jeffrey Tambor here, but his is a critically respected performance from a TV veteran in a really baity role, so they might give in (let’s hope!). Also, I won’t be surprised for a posthumous mention to the late Robin Williams as he’s still eligible here.

tv comedy actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
Allison Janney, “Mom
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep
Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation

NEXT IN LINE: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family“; Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family“; Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black

I’m really not familiar with Lisa Kudrow and The Comeback‘s eligibility so she might really not be in contention, but I’m still predicting here in this lineup. Both Amy Poehler and Julia Louis Dreyfus are easy calls here, but nothing excites me more than the possible reunion of Allison Janney and Edie Falco who used to compete all the time in the drama categories more than a decade ago. Janney seems like a typical SAG catnip, and Falco has stood the test of time when it comes to getting precursor nominations. Expect veteran Kate Mulgrew or one of the Modern Family ladies to join the group if Kudrow is indeed ineligible.

movie mini actor

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
Martin Freeman, “Fargo
Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge
Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart
Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo

NEXT IN LINE: Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart“; David Tennant, “Gracepoint“; Richard Jenkins, “Olive Kitteridge

Thornton, Cumberbatch and Ruffalo are easy calls here. I think they’d be generous enough to nominate Martin Freeman as well since his career is starting to breakout as well. I’m a bit dubious about choosing supporting actor Bill Murray over lead one Richard Jenkins, but hey it has happened here before and if there’s one name checking that can happen, then ten bucks say it’s Murray over Jenkins who they’ll check regardless of their actual roles in the said HBO TV movie.

movie mini actress

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman
Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge
Julia Roberts, “The Normal Heart
Allison Tolman, “Fargo
Cicely Tyson, “The Trip to Bountiful

NEXT IN LINE: Kristen Wiig, “The Spoils of Babylon“; Ellen Burstyn, “Flowers in the Attic“; Whoopi Goldberg, “A Day Late and a Dollar Short

Julia Roberts is a done deal here, and the same can be said for both Maggue Gyllenhaal and Frances McDormand. They usually nominate random performances every now and then (remember Winona Ryder a few years ago for that TV movie which no one even remembers the title now?), but I’m holding out hope for Allison Tolman to get in here. And as for that Lifetime spot, it can either be Whoopi Goldberg or Minnie Driver, but I’d go with veteran Cicely Tyson here.

There you have it! The nominees for the 21st Screen Actors Guild Awards will happen tomorrow, December 11, at 9PM (Manila time).

 

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