87th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions: How Did I Fare?   4 comments

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So you’ve been reading my posts all-year long on who’s gonna get nominated and how Actor A or Movie B will get in and how Director C is missing and Movie D will underperform when it comes to Oscar nominations. Thus, it’s necessary to call me out on how I did with my final Oscar predictions.

BEST PICTURE: 8/8

Welp, make that 8/9 as I predicted nine films to get it (with that unfortunate film being Gone Girl.) I refused to go beyond or below 9 considering that since the 5-10 rule was introduced in 2011, nine films consistently make it in here. This year proved that nope, nine is not the standard number. But who cares? I predicted all 8 films so points for me.

BEST DIRECTOR: 3/5

So this one is trickier. I did not see Bennett Miller coming at all. Last September, sure go ahead. But not now when you have Ava Duvernay or Clint Eastwood (both of whom I predicted) in the mix. But you can throw your eggs (real eggs if it needs some specifying) directly at me for being timid about Morten Tyldum. I was certain he won’t make it considering he missed literally everything except DGA, but it seemed like that’s the one that counted. My heart still goes out to Ava though.

BEST ACTOR: 4/5

I never bought Jake Gyllenhaal despite his precursor overperformance. His is simply not the type that this category rewards. And considering how this is closely knitted to Best Picture, that made my suspicions stronger. In hindsight, I should have never underestimated Steve Carell (he got in at Globe + SAG + BAFTA after all) plus it’s a very physical performance, but I asumed that David Oyelowo playing MLK would be too irresistible for voters. Oh well, at least I called out that Bradley Cooper is happening despite no precursors.

BEST ACTRESS: 4/5

My heart says go Jennifer Aniston, but my mind stick with Amy Adams. This is probably one of the best mistakes (cue: Ariana Grande) I had though especially since it was Marion friggin Cotillard made it.  I think that’s the best surprise in this category since what? Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine perhaps. beware of Jen though. if she can end up with that strong precursor haul with a film seen by close to no one, what more if she goes to Harvey? When it happens, you’ll shit bricks.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 5/5

Snooze. Next.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 4/5

So I missed Laura Dern for Jessica Chastain. I never considered Dern here and thought the last spot was between Jessica Chastain and Rene Russo. But never underestimate the power of the Derns when it comes to campaigning. Laura did one heck of a job for his father Bruce last year, you’d be foolish to think she won’t do the same for herself. I’m happy for her nomination though, Wild still unseen, because she’s one of the few actresses who continuously pursues interesting projects.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 4/5

My alternate Foxcatcher ended up happening. I was ready to predict it over Mr. Turner,  but I bailed out the last minute thinking the Academy would still name check Mike Leigh in spite. Bad call.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 4/5

Probably one of the worst snubs this season is Gillian Flynn’s Gone Girl miss. I don’t know if this misogyny thing is really to be blamed, and I understand that the story of Gone Girl is indeed close to ridiculous, but the idea of adapting your own novel to the big screen and getting raves for such is nomination worthy regardless of one’s gender. I still don’t know what happened there, but I predicted it over Paul Thomas Anderson in Inherent Vice.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: 4/5

My only confusion when predicting here is that there’s only one room for a film title that begins with T. So is it gonna be Tangerines or Timbuktu? The correct answer is that both happened and the marvelous film Force Majeuere was snubbed instead. That’s a real WTF moment there. Either way, I would have gotten 4/5 as I didn’t see that Force Majeuere miss happening.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 4/5

Same with Foreign Language Film, I had my alternate “Song of the Sea” but in the event that I include it, I’ll be moving The Boxtrolls instead. I did not see that The Lego Movie would miss, and I still don’t understand the reason why it did.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 3/5

So while I got FindingVivian Maier correct, I should have moved Last Days in Vietnam in my actual prediction and left The Overnighters there. I never considered The Salt of the Earth (up to now I still don’t know what that one’s about), but I’m a bit bummed that Life Itself, a documentary about the late Roger Ebert missed the category. A nomination would have sufficed as a tribute to a person who loved cinema like no other.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 5/5

Two words: DICK POOP. Oh and yay me!

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 3/5

Just when you thought they’re gonna go safe and boring with the period pieces; thus, I went with The Imitation Game and Selma, they go inspired with something like Inherent Vice. Missing Maleficent was my bad though; this is the same branch that nominated two Snow White films in one year, so I should have seen that coming.

BEST EDITING: 4/5

So I missed my alternate American Sniper for Birdman here. I thought American Sniper was an editing catnip, but if they nominated Gravity for Editing last year despite its lack of well… actual editing, I thought Birdman would get a pass then. Bad call on my part.

BEST MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING: 2/3

The nose! It really should have been about the nose. It was a battle between making Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking or Steve Carell in that horrible look. To quote Denzel Washington when he announced the Best Actress Oscar back in 2003, the winner here wins “by a nose.” And by nose, I mean Steve Carell’s.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 5/5

Yay me again! I’m confused by the Birdman predictions here though? There wasn’t much production design there? It’s like Black Swan in 2010, and that one missed the nomination as well.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 4/5

After awarding Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross the win in 2010 and nominating them a year after for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, it’s quite surprising they suddenly threw them to the curb this time around. What’s even more surprising? Off the consensus, Gone Girl missed in favor of Mr. Turner whose musical composer is a newbie, something this branch isn’t totally fond of.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 4/5

Knowing how shit storm this category is (a year later, and I still can’t get over Alone Yet Not Alone‘s a nom yet not a nom), the fact that I did 4/5 here is a surprise and way better than what I expected. I did not expect Beyond the Lights to get a nom here, so I really don’t give much fucks that I missed that one. I do hope Rita Ora asks on her Twitter though that she’ll perform at the Oscars only if she gets a million retweets.

BEST SOUND EDITING: 4/5

So I pegged Guardians of the Galaxy here as an easy nominee only for it to be my only miss as Birdman made it instead which is a surprise since it’s really not the type of film here that gets nominated.

BEST SOUND MIXING: 4/5

Apparently, I got the wrong “In” as I had Into the Woods when it Interstellar ended up as my miss here. It’s quite astonishing to see how Into the Woods missed here especially since this category loves musicals. And when I say love, I really mean.. love. The likes of Ray and Dreamgirls and Les Miserables and Chicago all won this with Walk the Line and Moulin Rouge getting nominated.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 3/5

Holy hell what happened to Godzilla? I thought for sure it would be a shoo-in nominee. And LMAO at The Hobbit which can’t even break this category anymore. In their place though that ended up nominated were my alternate X-Men: Days of Future Past (I have to say that Evan Peters’ time stopping scene alone deserves the nod already), and Captain America: The Winter Soldier (which made me giggle with glee considering how I loved that film, so an Oscar nominated film before its title is a nice bonus).

So all in all, I did really well I think. No total disasters. In the top eight, I got 36/43 nominees correct or a 84% average.  And in all 21 categories, I got a total of 85 correct predictions out of 106 which translates to an 80%  average. Not too shabby for someone like me, I must say!

Next up: Winners predictions which is an altogether different battlefield!

If you want to talk to me about this on Twitter, just tweet me: @nikowl

 

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Posted January 17, 2015 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, Films

4 responses to “87th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions: How Did I Fare?

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  1. “beware of Jen though. if she can end up with that strong precursor haul with a film seen by close to no one, what more if she goes to Harvey? When it happens, you’ll shit bricks.” –> Looking forward to this. (Not the shitting bricks part, though. HAHA!)

    • Actually sana makakuha siya ng break! Sobrang naiimpress ako sa layo ng narating ng Cake. Sure it fell short pero tangena pag napanood mo si Cake, maiisip mo pano pa siya umabot sa GG+BFCA+SAG!

  2. We did similar, a lot of 4/5 and a few 5/5. All in all, great predicting!

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