38th Gawad Urian Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

Probably the only remaining legit among the traditional awards ceremonies (sorry Golden Screen Awards), the Manunuri will be handling out their picks from the best of 2014 cinema in two days. And just like what I did last year where I got 7/12 of my predictions correct, I’ll throw my hunch on who’ll be winning the Gawad Urian for this year!

best pic

“Barber’s Tales”
“Mula sa Kung Ano ang Noon”

Unlike last year when it’s an easy given that Norte is so winning the top award, this year is much more difficult to pin. These four films have amassed a total of 42 nominations, so to say that the Manunuri loved them equally is just. I would have picked Mula sa Kung Ano Ang Noon in a heartbeat especially after its Locarno victory, but if we have to base at Urian’s recent history, they’re all after spreading the wealth. So a Lav film winning back to back might be of a disadvantage. But then again, it’s not easy to dismiss any of these four films. The funny thing is a lot of these films remind me of the recent winners in this category. Just like 2012 Best Picture winner “Ang Paglalakabay ng Mga Bituin sa Gabing Madilim“, both Bwaya an Barber’s Tales represent a bigger political statement which the Manunuri can find relevant. If not that, then the poetic nature of Dagitab can follow the footsteps of 2011 winner “Ang Sayaw ng Dalawang Kaliwang Paa.” It’s really anybody’s ballgame, but if I have to make a prediction, I’ll go with Jun Lana’s film as my prediction.

Prediction: Barber’s Tales

best director

Giancarlo Abraham (“Dagitab”)
Lav Diaz (“Mula sa Kung Ano ang Noon”)
Jun Lana (“Barber’s Tales”)
Jason Paul Laxamana (“Magkakabaung”)
Francis Xavier Pasion (“Bwaya”)
Kanakan Balintagos (“Esprit de Corps”)

No director has ever won in this category’s history for a film that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture so that tends to affect both Jason Paul Laxamana and Kanakan Balintagos’ chances here. And as last year proved, when one of the only two Urian-less directors managed to end up winning the category, the Urian loves to spread its wealth. Thus, I’m checking off Lav Diaz. I think Giancarlo Abraham has a better chance of winning in Screenplay, so that leaves me with Jun Lana and Francis Pasion, Pasion has won Screenplay in 2008 for Jay, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Urian puts him in the big leagues and go with a Barber’s/Bwaya Picture-Director split especially since the last two years have been split too. That said, I’ll stick with a Jun Lana win here to match with my predicted Best Picture win for Barber’s Tales.

Prediction: Jun Lana, “Barber’s Tales” 
Francis Pasion, “Bwaya

best actor

Robert Arevalo (“Hari ng Tondo”)
Noni Buencamino (“Dagitab”)
Allen Dizon (“Magkakabaung”)
JM de Guzman (“That Thing Called Tadhana”)
Sandino Martin (“Esprit de Corps”)
Robin Padilla (“Bonifacio: Ang Unang Pangulo”)
Arnold Reyes (“Kasal”)
Jericho Rosales (“Red”)
JC Santos (“Esprit de Corps”)
Dennis Trillo (“The Janitor”)

There seems to be a number of overdue actors here, but first, let’s eliminate those previous winners who aren’t likely to pull off a repeat win that quick. 2005 winner Robin Padilla (whose nomination this year still makes no sense to me) and 2012 winner Jericho Rosales seem filler nominations this year. Both Esprit de Corps actors are likely to split votes which doesn’t bode well for their chances. Then we have Robert Arevalo on his fifth career nod, Noni Buencamino on his fourth, and JM de Guzman and Dennis Trillo on their third tries. I see a possibility for Arnold Reyes to win this one, but if I have to choose I’d place my bets on one time nominee Allen Dizon who’s just on a roll these last few months sweeping off Best Actor trophies both here and in the international scene. If not him, then maybe a make up win for Dennis Trillo. Remember when he was thisclose to pull off the grandslam in 2004 for Aishite Imasu after sweeping the Star Awards, FAMAS, and Luna only to be spoiled by Wendell Ramos at the Urian the last minute? This can be their atonement for him.

Prediction: Allen Dizon, “Magkakabaung” 
Dennis Trillo, “The Janitor

best actress

Nora Aunor (“Dementia”)
Angeli Bayani (“Bwaya”)
Ai Ai De las Alas (“Ronda”)
Eugene Domingo (“Barber’s Tales”)
Hazel Orencio (“Mula sa Kung Ano ang Noon”)
Angelica Panganiban (“The Thing Called Tadhana”)
Eula Valdez (“Dagitab”)
Nova Villa (“1st Ko si 3rd”)

Can this be the year when Nora Aunor finally ties current leader Vilma Santos’ record of most number of Urian Best Actress wins with 7? With Aunor being the recipient of the Natatangiang Gawad Urian, methinks the answer is no and that they’ll likely wait for another year to do that. Considering they are their film’s sole nods, I think the nomination is the reward for both Aiai delas Alas and Nova Villa. It’s quite a feat that all four Best Picture nominees have their leading ladies contending in this category as well, so that puts them on equal footing, if not only current Best Actress Angeli Bayani is gunning for a back to back win here. That said, Eugene Domingo is in her fifth nomination and this can be the perfect vehicle for her to take the trophy. After all, this is a departure from her usual nominated comedic performances. And then there’s Angelica Panganiban. It felt like in Angelica’s case, getting the nomination is the biggest hurdle. Will the Manunuri go for her light fared performance? The answer was yes, and this can be a rehash of 2011 when they gave a relatively younger actress the Urian (Maja Salvador). In the end, I’d give the odds to Eugene Domingo, but I won’t be surprised to hear Angelica’s name come awards night.

Prediction: Eugene Domingo, “Barber’s Tales”
Angelica Panganiban, “That Thing Called Tadhana”

best supp actor

Nico Antonio (“Red”)
Roeder Camañag (“Mula sa Kung Ano ang Noon”)
Martin del Rosario (“Dagitab”)
Joel Lamangan (“Violator”)
Nicco Manalo (“Barber’s Tales”)
Karl Medina (“Bwaya”)
Jess Mendoza (“Mauban: Ang Resiko”)
Noel Santodomingo (“Mula sa Kung Ano ang Noon”)

First off, apologies for the lack of Noel Santodomingo photo. I really can’t find one and it has took me hours already trying to search for it. Moving on, the Urian Best Supporting Actor is the counterpart of the Oscar Best Actress one, I must say. If the Oscars love its Best Actress young and pretty, this category has been the home of relatively young actors. Since 2000, the category has rewarded Jeffrey Quizon (in 2000), Piolo Pascual (2002), Ketchup Eusebio (2005), Rafael Rossell (2006), Coco Martin (2008), Joem Bascon (2010), and current winner Junjun Qintana (2013). Thus, for the shallowest reasons, I predict Martin del Rosario to win this one. After all, Dagitab is bound to win at least one acting award no? So maybe this is where it happens. if not him, then maybe Joel Lamangan gets his first Urian acting win via Violator.

Prediction: Martin del Rosario, “Dagitab
Joel Lamangan, “Violator

best supp actress

Shamaine Buencamino (“Barber’s Tales”)
Iza Calzado (“Barber’s Tales”)
Alessandra de Rossi (“Mauban: Ang Resiko”)
Barbie Forteza (“Marquina”)
Karenina Haniel (“Mula sa Kung Ano ang Noon”)
Gladys Reyes (“Magkakabaung”)
Gloria Sevilla (“M: Mother’s Maiden Name”)

The past two years made it easy to guess the winner considering that both Alessandra de Rossi and Angel Aquino were double nominated in this category. That’s why I’m a bit surprised that Gladys Reyes wasn’t considering the amount of love the acting from Barber’s Tales received. Maybe Barbie Forteza wins it, though the Urian hasn’t awarded a young actress here since Serena Dalrymple in 1998 and she was even younger. Iza and Alessandra both have won already, and Shamaine Buencamino is the only multiple nominee who hasn’t won yet. I guess I’ll go with Karenina Haniel here, whose role also stands out among the rest of the pack.

Prediction: Karenina Haniel, “Mula sa Kung Ano Ang Noon
Barbie Forteza, “Mariquina

And as for the rest of the categories…

Giancarlo Abrahan, “Dagitab”
Jun Lana, “Barber’s Tales

Prediction: Chito Sumera, “Barber’s Tales
Alternate: Hal Balbuena, “Esprit de Corps”

Prediction: Neil Daza, “Bwaya
Alternate: Rommel Sales, “Dagitab

Prediction: Jesse Lucas, “Alienasyon
Alternate: Mon Espia, “Dagitab

Prediction: Carlo Manatad, “Bwaya”
Alternate: Lav Diaz, “Mula sa Kung Ano Ang Noon

Prediction: Mark Locsin, “Mula sa Kung Ano Ang Noon”
Alternate: Corrine de San Jose, “Violator

The 38th Gawad Urian Awards will be shown live on Tuesday, June 16 over at Cinema One.

Talk about it and follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

Posted June 14, 2015 by Nicol Latayan in Uncategorized

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