Let’s move on to the longform acting categories which provided the surprises last year as frontrunners Mark Ruffalo, Cicely Tyson, Matt Bomer and Julia Roberts all went home empty handed. With how crazy this year’s new voring is taking shape, we’d know if the same applies for 2015. It’s a tad hilarious that this is the year where they started the tape system when tapes seem like they don’t matter anymore.
Anyway, let’s begin with the trifecta of American Horror Story: Freak Show actresses in this category – all nominated last year and all came back again this year. As Desiree Dupree, Angela Bassett played the three-breasted freak with so such commitment this season, but she’s jsut competing with two other characters who received meatier material than her. Even her submission “Show Stoppers” feature her co-nominees more than her.
Then there’s current champ Kathy Bates who plays the role of bearded woman Ethel Darling. After years of slump when it comes to Emmy wins, Bates suddenly won two Emmys in three years, and she’s very much in it again this year. While her submission “Edward Mordrake Part 1” is excellent on its own, she also shines in the extra two tapes she had from her co-nominees. Plus, she benefits from name-checking as well.
But it doesn’t get as baity as Sarah Paulson now on her fourth consecutive nomination (and still Emmyless, while we’re at it). Her role as twins Bette and Dot is probably the most challenging in this group (though Tatiana Maslany probably laughs at this sentence), and if she can’t win for this double performance, she probably won’t ever win for this whole series. And while her episode “Tupperware Massacre Party” makes her really competitive, it might be too gimmicky for other voters.
Elsewhere, there’s Zoe Kazan from Olive Kitteridge playing the role of the outgoing Denise Thibodeau. Submitting the first part of the series is a wise move, as it contains her most vital moments where she came as stronger than perceived. It has the perfect balance of comedy and drama that might appeal to voters, or the Olive Kitteridge fans among the voting bloc.
For her role as Aliyah Shadeed in American Crime, Regina King received her first Emmy career nomination. An Islam convert in the show, King’s submission “Episode Four” had her delivering a speech in the episode which is as Emmy clip as one can possibly wish. The support for American Crime is more than what was expected, so if voters aren’t in the mood for the horror story, this can be one where they’ll throw their vote to.
Closing the group is Oscar winner Mo’nique for her turn as Ma Rainey in TV Movie winner Bessie. For this performance, Mo’nique has already received lots of great ink which easily puts her as in hunt for the actual Emmy. Her biggest problem though is that she appears only in the first part of the series only to just come back in the last few moments. While this works in a usual show episode, this might be deemed far too small for a TV movie performance. Only one actress has won this category for a TV Movie in the last five years (Julia Ormond in 2010 and that’s because 4 of the 5 nominees are from TV Movies).
Sarah Paulson is the overwhelming frontrunner here between her transformative role and her overdue status, but she is a shaky frontrunner at best. Kathy Bates can easily pull off a back to back, so does Mo’nique to reach halfway of her EGOT status. I’m currently thinking Bates’ beard would be enough to pull a double Paulson come next week.
Prediction: Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
Alternate: Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
01. Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
02. Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
03. Mo’nique, “Bessie”
04. Regina King, “American Crime”
05. Zoe Kazan, “Olive Kitteridge”
06. Angela Bassett, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.
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