As we get closer to the Oscar nomination announcement, the start of the official televised season is here! This week, we’ll be learning the SAG, Golden Globe, and welp BFCA Awards nominees. The SAG Awards is the one that’s been voted by the acting guild, the largest guild voting in the Academy. That said, the actors guild is also really different from the actual Oscar actors guild considering that in SAG, more than 2000 voters are eligible including the TV stars and basically everyone who has a SAG card and has been paying their annual dues. That said, this is still a solid starter for a road to Oscar glory. Here’s what I’m predicting to be in contention for an “Actor” statuette next week.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE:
The Big Short
NEXT IN LINE: Room, Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton, Black Mass
The big story with the SAG committee is the screener. Sending no screener will be the kiss of death in being nominated here. That’s why films such as Sweeney Todd, Django Unchained, The Wolf of Wall Street, and Selma weren’t nominated here is because they didn’t send screeners. This year, The Hateful Eight didn’t submit so there goes their nomination. Both Joy and The Revenant did however, but they sent it a bit late that’s why they’d likely to miss here. As for those that will *actually* get nominated, Spotlight is probably the frontrunner here as it’s also sweeping ensemble awards left and right. Then there’s the star studded cast of The Big Short doing a lot of SAG campaigning, and they surely want to invite Brad Pitt and Ryan Gosling and Steve Carell and Christian Bale so count them in. The Martian is the Matt Damon show, but they had all these other respected actors playing second fiddle so I guess we can count it safe. Brooklyn is overperforming a lot lately, and this reminds me of An Education which also scored a nomination here in 2009. As for Steve Jobs, sure it was a toxic campaign for the whole team in terms of its award chances but the SAGs are more forgiving when it comes to failed Oscar baits, and this is still a star studded cast so there’s that.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Johnny Depp, “Black Mass”
Leonardo di Caprio, “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
NEXT IN LINE: Ian McKellen, “Mr. Holmes“, Michael Caine, “Youth“, Steve Carell, “The Big Short”
It really feels a bit weird that I don’t have any veteran in my final five, but sometimes these things do really happen. Matt Damon is in the populist choice box office hit of the year, and you know how much the SAG loves to reward those. And while The Revenant won’t materialize in Ensemble, it solidifies its lead actor’s status in the race with its late screeners. We really shouldn’t be talking about Johnny Depp in this race at all, but I guess it’s one of those inevitable things that we really dread but is happening. WB is pushing for Black Mass so hard, and Depp is still a recognizable name so he’s happening here. Then we have a bunch of underwhelmed contenders: both Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl flopped either in box office or with critics, but these are still baity actor-ly turns that will be nominated. As mentioned, watch out for either Ian McKellen of Mr. Holmes or Michael Caine of Youth to surprise.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
Carey Mulligan, “Suffragette”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
NEXT IN LINE: Lily Tomlin, “Grandma“, Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years“, Blythe Danner, “I’ll See You in My Dreams”
Blanchett, Larson, and Ronan are all locks at this point. Jennifer Lawrence can be snubbed if enough voters didn’t see Joy in time (because of the late screeners), but considering she’s the biggest movie star in the world, still expect her to get in. The last spot I’m giving to Carey Mulligan as she really rallied around doing a lot of SAG Q&As and screenings, but the SAG is one of those who recognize early screeners and considering that the first two screeners sent to SAG this year were I’ll See You in My Dreams and Grandma, then maybe Blythe Danner and/or Lily Tomlin can crash this race.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Michael Keaton, “Spotlight”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
Jacob Tremblay, “Room”
NEXT IN LINE: Paul Dano, “Love and Mercy“, Christian Bale, “The Big Short“, Benicio del Toro, “Sicario”
Mark Rylance is considered as a theater god and an actor’s actor, so he’s in. He’s also the place where the SAG can recognize the whole Bridge of Spies ensemble. Then there’s the pairing of Spotlight actors Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo as sure contenders. With Creed breaking out last Thanksgiving, expect the actors guild (of all places) to embrace the comeback of Sly. As for the last spot, the SAG has been known to be the place to reward child acting performances from Keisha Castle Hughes to Freddie Highmore and Hailee Steinfeld to Abigail Breslin (remember Quvenzhane Wallis was ineligible during her year) so Jacob Tremblay makes sense in here.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Jane Fonda, “Youth”
Rooney Mara, “Carol”
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
NEXT IN LINE: Elizabeth Banks,”Love and Mercy“, Helen Mirren, “Trumbo“, Joan Allen, “Room”
Unlike the Golden Globes, the SAGs has no power to go against category fraud. They put the contenders where the studio is campaigning them; thus both Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander will compete here. And they’re locks for nominations already. The same can be said for Kate Winslet who has won two SAGs in this category too. Jane Fonda is this year’s veteran contender, and considering that SAG only started 22 years ago, expect them to play catch up with Jane and nominate her. The last spot can go to Elizabeth Banks who the actors really seem to love and respect, Helen Mirren who’s your default filler nominee, or Joan Allen in that comeback narrative, but I expect the strong support of Spotlight to carry over Rachel McAdams in here.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
NEXT IN LINE: Homeland, The Good Wife, American Crime
As per the SAG TV committee, the limited series such as American Horror Story, True Detective, Fargo, and American Crime are eligible here instead of the longform categories. But FX didn’t submit any of its shows in here, so don’t count on them. Thus expect, usual nominees Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, and House of Cards to get nominations as well as ratings juggernaut Empire, and a comeback farewell nod for the cast of multiple winner Mad Men.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Terence Howard, “Empire”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”
NEXT IN LINE: Patrick Wilson, “Fargo“, Kyle Chandler, “Bloodline“, Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul”
Only Peter Dinklage and Kevin Spacey are really the locks here, but considering they love giving farewell nods (and I’m predicting it in Ensemble), so Jon Hamm makes sense as a contender. Terrence Howard is a previous multiple nominee and a SAG Ensemble winner so I can see him making it in. For that last spot, there’s Kyle Chandler and Patrick Wilson but maybe a Better Call Saul actor will be recognized, and I’ll go with the lead actor Bob Odenkirk.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”
Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
NEXT IN LINE: Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black“, Juliana Margulies, “The Good Wife“, Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”
Probably the most crowded category, it’s no wonder that last year provided us with six nominees (and they’re all eligible again!) That said, I’m sticking with five this year. Current winner Viola Davis, Claire Danes, and Robin Wright both are the strongest bets here. Then there’s Taraji P.Henson in the most buzzed character in TV right now. The last spot I’m giving to Jean Smart just to have some Fargo representation, even if I can see Dame Maggie Smith easily getting that last spot.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Grace and Frankie
Orange is the New Black
Wet Hot American Summer
NEXT IN LINE: Brooklyn Nine Nine, The Big Bang Theory, Transparent
The cast of Modern Family, Orange is the New Black, and Veep are sure contenders here already. I think the old folks at SAG will recognize Grace and Frankie here despite it being a small cast considering that small cast are all respected veterans both in TV and in film. As for that last spot, just for the star studded aspect of it, I’m going with Wet Hot American Summer just because they want Bradley Cooper, Paul Rudd, Amy Poehler, and the rest of the cast to be included in the party.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”
William H. Macy, “Shameless”
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”
NEXT IN LINE: Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish“, Martin Sheen, “Grace and Frankie“, Bradley Cooper, “Wet Hot
After his Emmy win, I find it hard to see them snubbing Jeffrey Tambor again given this role and its clout. Then there’s current winner William H. Macy and another champion in this category Ty Burrell. Jim Parsons is still one of the top comedic actors right now and The Big Bang Theory is still the ratings juggernaut so expect him here. As for the last spot, we can expect anybody from Don Cheadle to Martin Sheen, but I’d say Will Forte gets that last spot.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black”
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”
Allison Janney, “Mom”
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”
NEXT IN LINE: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family“, Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation“, Jane Fonda, “Grace and Frankie”
Considering they won’t recognize Lily Tomlin for her film work, then expect her to get in for her TV turn instead. Then, JLD, Uzo, and Edie Falco are strong bets as well. Considering she’s a SAG and Emmy favorite, I think that Allison Janney can finally enter the race with her scene stealing role in Mom. That said, don’t count out a farewell nod for Amy Poehler here.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Idris Elba, “Luther”
Oscar Isaac, “Show Me A Hero”
Damian Lewis, “Wolf Hall”
David Oyelowo, “Nightingale”
Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall”
NEXT IN LINE: Bill Paxton, “Texas Rising“, Bill Murray, “A Very Murray Christmas“, Louis Gossett Jr, “The Book of Negroes”
While he might not be nominated for his work in Beasts of No Nation, Idris Elba can still attend the SAGs, thanks to his TV work for Luther. There’s also Oscar Isaac in HBO’s only eligible miniseries thus far… Show Me a Hero. Following his Emmy nod earlier this year, Davod Oyelowo will also get in for his one man show in Nightingale. Lastly, expect the yin-yang pairing of Wolf Hall actors Mark Rylance and Damian Lewis to close the race.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A MINISERIES:
Catherine Keener, “Show Me A Hero”
Nicole Kidman, “Grace of Monaco”
Queen Latifah, “Bessie”
Winona Ryder, “Show Me A Hero”
NEXT IN LINE: Saoirse Ronan, “Stockholm, Pennsylvania“, Susan Sarandon, “The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe“, Claire Foy, “Wolf Hall”
With everyone else and their limited series ineligible here, you know the category is empty that Nicole Kidman in freaking Grace of Monaco is a prediction. But really, this field is THAT empty. Joining her are two pairs of actress from the other HBO films. There’s likely winner Queen Latifah and Mo’nique for Bessie and Catherine Keener and Winona Ryder (who surprised in this category here a few years ago) for Show Me A Hero.
There you have it! The nominees for the 21st Screen Actors Guild Awards will happen on December 9, at 9PM (Manila time).