With TIFF and Venice now done, here’s how the rest of the competition is now shaping. Can Natalie Portman win a second Oscar? Is Silence even coming out this year? And will #OscarsSoWhite finally be over? (Yup it is).
PS: I’m already sick of the Natalie vs. Emma and Jackie vs. La La Land rivalry this early.
La La Land is the movie to beat. It’s about the industry, it’s likely to be a huge hit, it has the critics backing it, and it’s a crowdpleaser. Think of a more popular The Artist. I’m still baffled with which Paramount vehice is happening tbh, and Harvey will fight til the end to make Lion happen.
This seems like a tailor made win for Damien Chazelle no? He came really close for Whiplash nomination two years ago. Now he can just go all the way with this.
What a weak lineup. I can see a scenario of Denzel winning #3 with this weak lineup. I’m not totally sold yet on Casey Affleck steamrolling this time around. And while he might not be campaigning, it’s so very much the Oscars that Tom Hanks gets in for Sully even after his Captain Phillips snub.
Emma vs. Natalie vs. Viola is what will be the story of this season. I think Emma can go all the way with this especially if La La Land becomes stronger this season, but Natalie Portman’s raves are just absolutely astonishing it’s hard to dismiss them. Then there’s Viola, whose campaigning will surely make a statement with the Academy. I put Meryl in fourth only because I think this is the Meryl stuff the Academy loves Meryl to do. Fifth spot is tricky between Ruth to Annette tbh, and I can see anybody completing the lineup. Right now, I say it’s Negga.
Can you imagine if Silence moves to 2016? What happens to this category? Hopefully it paves the way for a Mahershala Ali win. Shannon is shaping to have a great year and Bridges is the type of a lazy nom role that can happen (see Robert Duvall in The Judge). Grant can be carried by Meryl if they continue to campaign together.
Michelle Williams seems the type to win critics mentions but flops at the televised awards (see Amy Ryan in 2007, Jessica Chastain in 2011 etc.) But then, maybe she’s perceived as overdue. Stewart is having the best years of her career, and she’s one who can get a welcome type of nod from AMPAS. Legend Kidman plays the favorite supporting role here: a supportive mother. Plus that wig is amde of Philomena’s leftovers. And then I put Adams here only because Focus Features knows this game. I mean they’re the same team who pulled off Vikander in Supporting for The Danish Girl just earlier this year.
So is Moonlight original or adapted? I say original only because it doesn’t have a published material. The first four are close to safe. Last one can be the tricky part and can go to any of the weaker films.
This is empty. Lol.