Archive for January 2017

89th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions   Leave a comment

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With months and months of speculations, all predictions will finally be decided upon as the Academy unveils its 89th Academy Awards nominations tomorrow night, Manila time. This season, just like the previous one, brought in lots of crazy moments as we progress the past few months. Frontrunners like Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, and Nate Parker’s Birth of a Nation both sizzled mid-way. Viola Davis competed in Supporting after talks of being in Lead a year before, and who knew that Mel Gibson can still do a Hollywood comeback after all these years? Anyway, here we go, I’ll share my predictions in all 24 Oscar categories.

BEST PICTURE

As you may know, Best Picture is a fluid category which can have as many as ten and as low as five nominees. We have a really strong triumvirate heading to Oscar season with Damien Chazelle’s LA-set musical La La Land, Kenneth Lonergan’s small drama Manchester by the Sea, and critically acclaimed Moonlight from Barry Jenkins. All three led the season in terms of critical acclaim and precursor performance. Consider three all set and locked in.

Next up, two films which really overperformed all season, overcoming doubts and possible barriers throughout their campaigns. The Amy Adams-starrer Arrival has managed to sweep both critics, audience, and guilds off its feet, beating possible “genre bias” against it. And despite all the behind the scene shenanigans over The Weinstein Company, Harvey Weinstein proves he still has it in him pushing Lion to a distant but comfortable fifth place spot.

And then it gets tricky. I’d say that Hell or High Water is sixth, with its whirlwind of a performance, getting remembered when it was very low-key, and getting snubbed for guilds when it started to pick up some steam. That said, I think it’s one of the few films that target the dude-bros/majority of the AMPAS membership so I think it’s safely in. next up are two POC led films whose sequel Hidden Fences has been repeated a lot this season (sadly, not in jest). Fences, directed and starred by Denzel Washington is a film adaptation of a Broadway winning play, while Hidden Figures, who defies box office expectation each week peaks at the right time during voting. While I won’t be surprised if one of these two gets snubbed (because these + Moonlight and Lion will mean half of the eight nominees are about POC and as much as Hollywood claims they are embracing, the past two years proved otherwise), I’m still sticking them both in and close my predictions at eight.

In the event that these surpass the eight, I think Mel Gibson’s sorta Hollywood comeback Hacksaw Ridge which surprisingly did well the last few weeks, can fill in the AMPAS membership quota targeted at old, white grandpas. After Clint Eastwood’s Sully sizzled, this can be their feel good movie of the year. Then there’s also Martin Scorsese’s opus Silence which was a victim of Paramount handling three strong films this season; thus coming really late to the party.

Predictions:
• Arrival
• Fences
• Hell or High Water
• Hidden Figures
• La La Land
• Lion
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

9th (but not predicted): Hacksaw Ridge
10th (but not predicted): Silence

BEST DIRECTOR

It’s really not safe to stick with the DGA five considering that the only time that happened was back in 2000. That said, the last time it also happened was a group of all first-time nominees, which also reflects this year’s batch. Well, it only becomes a problem when you consider that the biggest spoiler to this group is welp… another first timer. I think Damien Chazelle, Kenneth Lonergan, and Barry Jenkins are all safe here, while Denis Villeneuve strikes me as one who’ll finally get his welcome to the club mention. After all, his previous films have been slowly getting Oscar nominations, so it’s just a matter of time to finally get one for him. Last spot I see is between Garth Davis who pulled off that surprise DGA nod (over favorites such as Martin Scorsese, Clint Eastwood, and Mel Gibson) or David Mackenzie (whose film did not submit for the DGAs.) Toss a coin to get your answer and mine right now says Garth Davis.

Predictions:

• Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
• Damien Chazelle, La La Land
• Garth Davis, Lion
• Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
• Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

SPOILER: David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck is back nine years after receiving his first nod for The Assassination of Jesse James, but not only is he back as a nominee, moreso a frontrunner to win the Oscar this year for Manchester by the Sea. Two of his closest contenders include Denzel Washington, on his way to pick up his seventh career nod for his role in Fences and Golden Globe winner Ryan Gosling, the effortlessly charming pianist in La La Land, whose only Oscar nod was exactly a decade ago for Half Nelson. With two major films this year, more exposure can only help Andrew Garfield to finally include “Oscar nominee” before his name, but with Silence coming in too late in the game, all his previous mentions were for his role as the lead soldier in Hacksaw Ridge. The last spot can go to Joel Edgerton in Loving, or maybe a late gamechanger Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals, but I’d play safe and predict Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic, as he has earned Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nods for this already.

PREDICTIONS:
• Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
• Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling, La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington, Fences

SPOILER: Joel Edgerton, Loving

BEST ACTRESS

If we’re being diplomatic about it, it’s a “good” problem to not figure out the Best Actress lineup this year when it was the easiest to do so the last few years. That means great roles for women in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s have all been receiving great ink for their memorable performances. But for prediction’s sake, it’s still difficult to pin down how this category will be like. I guess we better start with Emma Stone then, as she’s probably the safest here and the likely recipient of this award come Oscar night. As much as we salivate over the possibility of a Portman snub (after those really career-best notices), it’s not gonna happen. Pencil Natalie’s turn as Jackie Kennedy another sure contender here. After that, I’m tempted to say Meryl Streep is third. This role, in another “transformative” performance is something the members of the Academy will eat up. Add the fact that her iconic Golden Globe speech came right during voting period just surely helps her more. Now this is where it gets tricky. I’d put Isabelle Huppert for Elle in fourth, and while I think it’s the pessimist in me talking, I’m still open to the idea of a possible snub. After all, it’s a movie that’s not a priority watch with an actress in her 60s carrying the film in one of the strongest years of this category. I really should comfort myself with the fact that she earned the critics trifecta, the Drama Globe upset, and SPC’s priority but I;m just preparing myself for the worst here. Then there’s Amy Adams, who’s some sort of a name-check but not in a Meryl or C/Kate level yet. This will be her sixth nod in 12 years and that ratio is good to predict her. That said, we had an extra week of voting which could help Annette Bening in the little and underseen 20th Century Women or Taraji p. Henson as the face of Hidden Figures to spoil the party, and in the event that happens, I’d say Adams is the first one good to go.

PREDICTIONS:
• Amy Adams, Arrival
• Isabelle Huppert, Elle
• Natalie Portman, Jackie
• Emma Stone, La La Land
• Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

SPOILER: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Proving to be the category that provides the clusterfuck, Supporting Actor can either be as easy as 1-2-3 or as confusing as that Math lady meme we’ve all used by now. I feel like Moonlight‘s Mahershala Ali, Hell or High Water‘s Jeff Bridges, and Lion‘s Dev Patel are already sure locks here. Hugh Grant feels like it can go eitherway. He fits the bill of someone nabbing precursor nods only to come short in the end, but then he also fits the bill of a filler, carried over nod. But when the one who drags your nod is none other than Meryl Streep, then I guess he’s in too. Now that last spot is indeed very tricky. The obvious option is Golden Globe winner Aaron Taylor-Johnson who also picked up a BAFTA nod for his turn in Nocturnal Animals. If not him, then maybe Lucas Hedges of Manchester by the Sea. But then this is the category that has provided us Jonah Hill in Wolf of Wall Street and Tom Hardy for The Revenant, so a coattail is very much in talks here. Possible performances that fit the bill are Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Issei Ogata for Silence, and Ben Foster for Hell or High Water.

Predictions:
• Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
• Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
• Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
• Dev Patel, Lion
• Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

SPOILER: Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Probably the most “boring” of the four acting categories, this one seems like it’s set in stone. Davis, Harris, Kidman, and Williams have appeared in all precursors by far. Critics went for Lily Gladstone whose film isn’t even being campaigned. The BAFTAs went with Haley Squire of I, Daniel Blake which is the BAFTA-est pick they can go to at BAFTAs. Thus, it benefits Oscar winner Octavia Spencer who picked up GG and SAG nods for Hidden Figures. I don’t see a scenario of Greta Gerwig spoiling the race especially considering that her possible coattail Annette Bening is struggling to get hers too. Maybe Spencer’s co-star Janelle Monae is the only alternate here, as she’s helped by starring in both Hidden Figures and Moonlight. That said, Octavia is the more established name here, and a good narrative to boot as the first black actress to receive a nomination after her win.

Predictions:
• Viola Davis, Fences
• Naomie Harris, Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman, Lion
• Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

SPOILER: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Count on the Writer’s branch to revive the lesser buzzed films in contention this year, and I think The Lobster has that slot all filled up. Thus, as much as I, Daniel Blake makes sense as an Oscar morning surprise, I’ll stick with the consensus of La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water, and Captain Fantastic in here.

Predictions:
• Captain Fantastic
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• The Lobster
• Manchester by the Sea

SPOILER: I, Daniel Blake

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Yes I’m predicting a Fences snub here which makes sense and doesn’t make sense simultaneously. First up, I think Moonlight, Lion, and Arrival are semi-locks here already. While Hidden Figures surprisingly got in a nice haul of Adapted Screenplay mentions from the BAFTAs to the WGA up to the USC Scripter and BFCAs. The last spot can easily go to Fences (which is the safe choice to be frank about it), or to Silence (which was once perceived as the frontrunner here). I went with Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals here instead because the baity adaptation can probably overcome the writers’ judgment of Ford being a writer.

Predictions:
• Arrival
• Hidden Figures
• Lion
• Moonlight
• Nocturnal Animals

SPOILER: Fences

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

I think at this stage it’s already hard to deny that Toni Erdmann is probably winning this one, so a nod is already assured for this FLF frontrunner. Denmark has a successful streak in this category this decade as well, and Land of Mine appeals to such an AMPAS demographic I think it’s getting in. Sweden’s A Man Called Ove strikes the perfect balance between comedy and drama, and is reminiscent of the other nominees in this category the past few years. Paradise is a bit of an  out of the box pick, but I guess they can’t resist another World War II film in contention from the Venice Best Director of last year. And the only reason I had The Salesman in here is because of Asghar Farhadi’s 2011 victory in this category that we’ve had some sort of reception already to his works. That said, don’t be surprise to see Xavier Dolan joining the race as this type of family melodrama and him working with a lot of Hollywood actors can certainly push him to a nom.

Predictions:
• Land of Mine (Denmark)
• A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
• Paradise (Russia)
• The Salesman (Iran)
• Toni Erdmann (Germany)

SPOILER: It’s Only the End of the World (Canada)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Still ahead of this race is Zootopia which had both the critical and audience backing to be one to beat in this race. Hot on its heels though is Kubo and the Two Strings which has overperformed a tad during this previous guilds run. I actually can see a scenario of them pitting it as the non-Zootopia vote. With it hitting both the Foreign Language Film and Best Animated Film shortlist, I expect My Life as a Zucchini to at least nab one, and since I’m not predicting it in FLF, I’ll go ahead and insert it here. Moana, which was supposed to be a last minute challenger to Zootopia just fell short in the end and while its decent box office performance and pop culture impact push me to predict it, I won’t be surprised to see it get snubbed on Oscar morning.Lastly, The Red Turtle seems more of a personal preference than a prediction here, but we’ll be needing the traditional animated representative in this category and I’m leaning to it by a hair over the hit animated film Your Name.

Predictions:
• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Moana
• My Life as a Zucchini
• The Red Turtle
• Zootopia

SPOILER: Sing

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

At the start of the season, O.J.Made in America can suffer a bit of a backlash since its a seven hour documentary feature that originated from TV. But it seems like it has the support now to not only get nominated, but even go all the way to a win. Joining it willbe the foreign documentary Fire At Sea, two films that will probably speak close to the voters due to their “cinematic” themes: Cameraperson and Life, Animated. And in the race (no pun intended) for that last spot are two documentaries that tackle about race — Raoul Peck’s I Am Not Your Negro and Ava Duvernay’s 13th. The latter seems like one who’s bound for a snub so I’m going with the former.

Predictions:
• Cameraperson
• Fire At Sea
• I Am Not Your Negro
• Life, Animated
• O.J.: Made in America

SPOILER: 13th

Now as for the rest of the technical categories…

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
• Arrival
• La La Land
• Lion
• Moonlight
• Silence

SPOILER: Nocturnal Animals

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Hail, Caesar!
• Jackie
• La La Land

SPOILER: The Dressmaker

BEST EDITING
• Arrival
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

SPOILER: Lion

BEST HAIRSTYLING & MAKE UP
• Deadpool
• A Man Called Ove
• Star Trek Beyond

SPOILER: Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
• The BFG
• Kubo and the Two Strings
• La La Land
• Lion
• Moonlight

SPOILER: Jackie

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
• “Audition” (La La Land)
• “Angel by the Wings” (The Eagle Huntress)
• “City of Stars” (La La Land)
• “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
• “A Minute to Breathe” (Before the Flood)

SPOILER:  “Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hail, Caesar!
• Jackie
• La La Land
• Silence

SPOILER: The Handmaiden

BEST SOUND EDITING
• Arrival
• Deepwater Horizon
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
• Sully

SPOILER: Hell or High Water

BEST SOUND MIXING
• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
• Sully

SPOILER: Silence

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
• Arrival
• Doctor Strange
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• The Jungle Book
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

SPOILER: Passengers

MULTIPLE NOMINATIONS:
13: La La Land
9: Arrival
8: Moonlight
7: Lion
6: Manchester by the Sea
4: Hell or High Water
3: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Jackie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2: Captain Fantastic, Hail Caesar!, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Nocturnal Animals, Silence, Sully

72nd Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

It’s awards season again, and there’s no better way to kick off the craziness of each season with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s Golden Globe Awards. You literally lock the biggest movie and TV stars (former in the front, latter in the back) in one room, give them unlimited booze and chocolates, and what ensues is three hours of pure fun. This year, Jimmy Fallon takes hosting duties with nominees ranging from Ryan Gosling to Isabelle Huppert in the film categories and Nick Nolte to Mandy Moore in the TV side. Here are my predictions in all 25 categories.

FILM:

film-drama

Best Picture, Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

PREDICTION: Moonlight. The most critically acclaimed film of the year and also one of the year’s most nominated at the Globes could cement its status as an Oscar challenger this year.

ALTERNATE: Manchester by the Sea. It’s the other critically acclaimed film of the bunch and is in a three-way race for the Oscar with Moonlight and La La Land.

film-drama-actor

Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

PREDICTION: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea. This is where they can reward Manchester altogether. After all, Affleck has garnered praises after praises one after the other for this role.

ALTERNATE: Denzel Washington, Fences. He’s the only other feasible challenger to an otherwise easy route of Casey Affleck to a Globe.

film-drama-actress

Best Actress, Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

PREDICTION: Natalie Portman, Jackie. Regardless of how jackie performed in general, Portman’s raves playing the iconic Jackie Kennedy is set to give her third overall career Globe.

ALTERNATE: Isabelle Huppert, Elle. Critics have basically included this as one of their favorites this year. If the Globes are edgier this year, she’s one who can benefit from it.

film-musical-comedy

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

PREDICTION: La La Land. Probably the biggest lock of the night, this nomination topnotcher is bound to have a golden night at the Globes. Right now, I’m predicting it for five awards. Book it!

ALTERNATE: Deadpool. La La Land is such a lock already that the rest of the four will have to compete for ample votes. Don’t be surprised if this ends up as distant second.

film-mc-actor

Best Actor, Comedy
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

PREDICTION: Ryan Gosling, La La Land. Gosling, on his fifth career nomination now, still Globeless, on the best Picture frontrunner. Seems like a perfect timing for a time at the podium to me.

ALTERNATE: Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool. Sure he’s funny, but can we reward his publicist instead? His 2016 is one for the books don’t be surprised if the celebrity fanatics Globes wanted a soon to be viral scenario with him.

film-mc-actress

Best Actress, Comedy
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

PREDICTION: Emma Stone, La La Land. With 20th Century fading in the background, and Streep getting her due at the Cecil B. DeMille already, consider Oscar frontrunner Emma Stone on her first televised speech this awards season.

ALTERNATE: Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins. She’s already the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille, but when it comes to Meryl Streep, nothing is impossible. She’s on her 30th nomination already, and it’s a historic night for her.

film-supp-actor

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

PREDICTION: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight. While this is the part when the televised precursors start to deviate from critical consensus, I think Ali can be the go-to place to reward Moonlight especially if it Manchester ends up winning the top Drama plum.

ALTERNATE: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water. For some reason, Bridges ended up as the de facto runner up this season, and he’s the veteran/biggest star in this lineup, so that might play a role.

film-supp-actress

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, Fences. Despite her SAGs and Emmy and Tony and BFCAs, one award Viola still hasn’t won is the Golden Globe. She lost to Kate Winslet in 2008, to Meryl Streep in 2011, to Ruth Wilson in 2015, and to Taraji P. Henson last year. Maybe fifth time’s a charm for her…

ALTERNATE: Nicole Kidman, Lion. …unless they really don’t like her. They can resort to a previous favorite who has won three Golden Globes already for her emotional turn as the adoptive mother in Lion. Just think of how Kate Winslet suddenly emerged last year as a contender after her surprise win at the Globes.

film-directing

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

PREDICTION: Damien Chazelle, La La Land. While there are so many possible tempting picks here (hey there, Mel Gibson!), I think I’ll stay safe and predict Damien Chazelle’s flashy directing in La La Land.

ALTERNATE: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight. Or maybe they can make history with their first ever black Best Director winner. After all, Jenkins has been sweeping critics wins left and right for Moonlight.

film-screenplay

Best Screenplay
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

PREDICTION: Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals. This type of flashy screenplay is the type that usually wins this ridiculously, always competitive Golden Globe category. We can still smell the scent of possible upset here by Ford.

ALTERNATE: Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water. Well here’s another place where they can reward Hell or High Water, especially if Bridges fails to upset Ali in Supporting Actor.

foreign-language-film

Best Foreign Language Film
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

PREDICTION: Toni Erdmann. Neruda and Elle would have made more sense had they been in the Oscars shortlist because the last time the HFPA deviated from the Oscar nominated film was nine years ago when none of their five nominees made it. I’ll stay safe and predict Toni Erdmann.

ALTERNATE: The Salesman. I told you I’m going safe with the Oscar shortlisted films.

animated-film

Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia

PREDICTION: Zootopia. A blockbuster, critics’ favorite, and really one of the surprises among the animated films of the previous year, I think Zootopia takes this one rather easily, despite the strong competition it’s up against.

ALTERNATE: Kubo and the Two Strings. For some reason, there’s a low-key talk of this upsetting the race, so I guess it’s safe to consider it as an alternate.

Best Original Score
Moonlight
La La Land
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures

PREDICTION: La La LandConsider this as the fifth win for La La Land on Golden Globes night. While I don’t think Justin Hurwitz is winning both Score and Song categories, his chances here are larger than the other.

ALTERNATE: Lion. At the end of the day, the HFPA still loves Harvey no matter what. And this is the place where they can throw him a bone.

Best Original Song
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Faith,” Sing
“Gold,” Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

PREDICTION: How Far I’ll Go, Moana. It will definitely be a moment to see Lin-Manuel Miranda on the Golden Globe stage giving an important speech, and I don’t think the Globes will pass on that opportunity.

ALTERNATE: City of Stars, La La Land. If Justin Hurwitz manages to win this one too, then he could just pull off a Sally Field and do a “You like me, you really like me!” moment on stage.

TELEVISION:

tv-drama

Best TV Series, Drama
The Crown
Game of Thrones
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld

PREDICTION: The Crown. In probably the strongest lineup in this category since God knows when, all five of these nominees actually make sense as winners. But don’t ever doubt their love for anything British, royalty, and politics. Hence, I’m going with this.

ALTERNATE: Stranger Things. For cementing its place in pop culture history, resurrecting Wino’s career alive and kicking again, and introducing to the world the greatness that is Millie Bobby Brown.

tv-drama-actor

Best Actor, Drama
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Billy Bob Thornton, Goliath

PREDICTION: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot. His loss last year was an utter shock considering his co-star Christian Slater won; that said, the HFPA tends to play catch up in this category. It follows the trend of recent winners Damian Lewis and Kevin Spacey who all looked instant winners on their freshmen season only to win on their second bid.

ALTERNATE: Matthew Rhys, The Americans. Well maybe it will follow the trajectory of also winners Michael C. Hall and Bryan Cranston to whom the HFPA rewarded during the later seasons of their shows.

tv-drama-actress

Best Actress, Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Keri Russell, The Americans
Winona Ryder, Stranger Things
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

PREDICTION: Winona Ryder, Stranger Things. This is a Globe-intended moment if ever there was one. Imagine a previous Golden Globe darling whose career has been marred with scandals, only to comeback for a resurgence, and the HFPA creams with the idea that they’ll be a part of it.

ALTERNATE: Claire Foy, The Crown. While Ryder seems like a pitch-perfect Globes-y choice, it sounds too good a scenario to be true, that they’ll just go ahead with Claire Foy to walk up to the podium.

tv-comedy

Best TV Series, Comedy/Musical
Atlanta
Blackish
Mozart in the Jungle
Transparent
Veep

PREDICTION: Atlanta. The Globes are really more adventurous with their TV picks, usually rewarding the new it-show so that they’ll be ahead of the pack. I don’t think Transparent or current champ Mozart in the Jungle have what it takes to pull off a repeat, and I don’t know but they really just never got Veep. So between the two newer shows, Atlanta seems more right up their alley than family sitcom black-ish.

ALTERNATE: black-ish. Relatively new show who got two lead acting Comedy nods. The last family comedy that won is Modern Family so if there’s one network who could pull it off, it’s ABC.

tv-comedy-actor

Best Actor, Comedy
Anthony Anderson, Blackish
Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Nick Nolte, Graves
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

PREDICTION: Donald Glover, Atlanta. TV Series winners usually carries an acting win with its Series win, and he fits the fresh and hip pick the HFPA rewards here, so I’d say Donald Glover wins this.

ALTERNATE: Anthony Anderson, black-ish. Or then maybe they’d throw a bone so that black-ish won’t end up emptyhanded on Globes night. This is the perfect category to reward it then.

tv-coemdy-actress

Best Actress, Comedy
Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Sarah Jessica Parker, Divorce
Issa Rae, Insecure
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Tracee Ellis Ross, Blackish

PREDICTION: Sarah Jessica Parker, Divorce. Only three performances in Golden Globe history has won at least four times for the same show: Alan Alda in M*A*S*H*, Carol Burnett in The Carol Burnett Show, and Sarah Jessica Parker in Sex and the City.  They love her. Sure this feels more like a welcome nod, but with no strong frontrunner, I’ll go with SJP.

ALTERNATE: Issa Rae, Insecure. That said, maybe it’ll go to the other HBO female lead. Issa Rae is a revelation in Insecure, and I can see a scenario of the Globes rewarding her instead.

tv-movie-mini

Best TV Miniseries or Movie
American Crime
The Dresser
The Night Manager
The Night Of
The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

PREDICTION: The People vs. OJ Simpson. I don’t see any show challenging it for thew win tbh, regardless if a lot of these co-nominees also deserve a time or two in the spotlight.

ALTERNATE: The Night Manager. They loved it enough to shower the series with four nods. Somewhere out there, it has its fans inside the HFPA who’ll probably be pushy enough to give it a consolation win.

tv-longform-actor

Best Actor, Mini-Series or TV Movie
Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
John Turturro, The Night Of
Courtney B. Vance, The People vs. O.J. Simpson

PREDICTION: Riz Ahmed, The Night Of. Last year’s winner Oscar Isaac benefited from his Star Wars gig to end up winning a Golden Globe for his HBO miniseries. While this could really go to many different directions, I can see this being one of the night’s surprise wins.

ALTERNATE: Courtney B. Vance, The People v. OJ Simpson. While he’s comforted with the fact that this Emmy winner already took home the prize, there can be an output of love for this OJ show to give him a win here as well.

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Best Actress, Mini-Series or TV Movie
Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Riley Keough, The Girlfriend Experience
Sarah Paulson, The People vs. O.J. Simpson
Charlotte Rampling, London Spy
Kerry Washington, Confirmation

PREDICTION: Sarah Paulson, The People v. OJ Simpson. Among the four OJ acting categories, this one seems like the only sure win in the bunch. She is unstoppable.

ALTERNATE: Riley Keough, The Girlfriend Experience. Keough seems like the only possible challenger to Paulson, but even that train has left already.

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Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, The People vs. O.J. Simpson
Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
John Lithgow, The Crown
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
John Travolta, The People vs. O.J. Simpson

PREDICTION: John Lithgow, The Crown. If Winona Ryder is really unstoppable in Drama Actress, then this is probably the place where they can reward The Crown. The fact that it’s John Lithgow, a previous multiple Globe winner, makes the deal more sealed.

ALTERNATE: Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager. He’s another Globe favorite, knows how to charm his way off a room, and he can be the token The Night Manager victory.

tv-supp-actress

Best Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman, The Night Manager
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Thandie Newton, Westworld

PREDICTION: Thandie Newton, Westworld. The Globes will probably spread the wealth among the new shows and with Stranger Things and The Crown already looking like they have shoo-in wins already, this is where they can reward Westworld.

ALTERNATE: Chrissy Metz, This Is Us. Sure she’s up against co-star Mandy Moore, but between the two This Is Us actress, Metz seems more like the Globes template pick for a winner here.

The Golden Globe Awards will be on January 8 (January 9 in Manila) to be shown live on Colors.

Posted January 7, 2017 by Nicol Latayan in Uncategorized