Archive for the ‘Awards’ Category

90th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions   1 comment

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Hollywood’s biggest night is upon us once again, with the announcement of the 2017 class of Oscar nominees. After months and months of festival premieres, magazine covers, endless interviews, and awards show speeches, the newest group of Academy Award nominees will be unveiled tomorrow. For most, it will be the biggest break they can ever hope for. For Meryl Streep, it’s just business as usual.

Some of this year’s Oscar contenders had us seeing Sally Hawkins make out with a fish, Armie Hammer giving us new memories with peaches, and everyone resisting a cup of tea from Catherine Keener. It also revived interests to the likes of Tommy Wiseau and Tonya Harding. More importantly, with the timely issues surrounding Hollywood today, narratives and politics have been stronger more than ever.

I’ll try and predict all 21 film categories. You ready? Let’s begin!

BEST PICTURE

Best Picture can range from as few as five and as many as ten when it comes to nominations, but with so many contenders still qualified in the race, five films have emerged in front of the race: There’s Golden Globe and SAG winner Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, presumably our current frontrunner as of this typing, about a grieving mother who took matters to her own hands so that her voice would be heard. Guillermo del Toro’s Venice champ The Shape of Water, has just won the Producers Guild, and is likely our nomination leader. Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird, a coming of age comedy that has the distinction of being the critically highest rated film, Get Out by Jordan Peele, a dark comedy slash commentary which was one of the biggest stories of 2017, and Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk, a retelling of that important moment in history in probably his most awards-friendly film in his resume yet. All films are considered safe already.

Then we have these films who are all seemingly safe, but do not be surprised if you see them miss out. Luca Guadagnino’s Call Me by Your Name, the adaptation of Andre Aciman’s best selling novel about a summer romance between two men, has the critics raving, but between Carol‘s snub and Moonlight‘s current win, will the Hollywood homophobes feel it’s too gay already? Steven Spielberg’s The Post has all the makings of an Oscar sweeper…if only we’re in the 90s. But then again the triumvirate of Spielberg + Meryl Streep + Tom Hanks is still strong enough to latch a nom despite an underwhelming guild run. On the flip side is I, Tonya which peaked right in the middle of Oscar nominee voting and has continued to overcome challenges one after the other. I expect these three to be called out as well.

Two more slots are still available, but I don’t see this being the year where we complete all 10 slots. The guilds have shown so much love for The Big Sick, and it’s the type of movie that can ride the love to end with a BP nom. Phantom Thread is the definition of a last minute contender and one that can get as few as three to as many as seven nominations come Oscar morning. The Florida Project has lost quite the momentum outside of Willem Dafoe, but it’s the kind that will have passionate supporters to squeak out a nomination. Maybe the British contingent will come full force for Darkest Hour, as shown by its great BAFTA showing to score a lazy inclusion in the Best Picture lineup.

Predictions:
• Call Me by Your Name
• Dunkirk
• Get Out
• I, Tonya
• Lady Bird
• The Post
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

9th (but not predicted): Darkest Hour
10th (but not predicted):
The Florida Project

BEST DIRECTOR

It’s safe to go with the DGA five as it seems like we’re in for an almost clear read at this race, but then two things are stopping me: the Oscar five last matched the DGA back in 2009, and it hasn’t happened this decade yet. Second, it’s rare that we get an all-newbie lineup at the Oscars and has only happened twice in the history of the category. That said, I think at least one of those two trends will be broken at least this year. Guillermo del Toro, this category’s frontrunner, is probably the only safe name here, and I can see a scenario of everyone else missing. As mentioned, this is Christopher Nolan’s most awards-friendly film, and after being passed over twice, it seems like this is the year when he’ll finally join the club. Martin McDonagh’s direction has been the weakest among the many categories where Three Billboards is a contender, but I still think he won’t miss out a nomination here. Too much buzz has been made about the poor statistic of women being nominated for Best Directing (only happened four times – Lina Wertmuller in 1976, Jane Campion in 1993, Sofia Coppola in 2003, and Kathryn Bigelow in 2009), I think this benefits Greta Gerwig a lot and I feel like there’s pressure to nominate her given her output and narrative. For that last slot, Jordan Peele of Get Out makes the most sense, but he’s also one I see who’s the first to miss out from the consensus five. Paul Thomas Anderson fits the bill of a returning nominee that can continue this category’s history trend, but then there’s also Sean Baker of The Florida Project who directed kids in the movie – an underlying common theme between two biggest surprises in this category the past few years (Behn Zeitlin in Beasts of the Southern Wild and Lenny Abrahamson in Room). That said, between the auteurs’ support and a more international friendly Directors branch, I’m going on a limb and predict Luca Guadagnino to translate his BAFTA nomination with an Oscar one.

Predictions:
• Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
• Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
• Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
• Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

SPOILER: Jordan Peele, Get Out

BEST ACTOR

Four names are guaranteed to be called already for Best Actor by tomorrow: there’s potential winner Gary Oldman in his second nomination (after 2011’s surprise one for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) as Winston Churchill and Daniel Day-Lewis in what is perceived as his swansong performance in Phantom Thread. Timothee Chalamet has emerged as the critical pick for Call Me by Your Name and will surely add an Oscar nominee label before his name. Same goes for Daniel Kaluuya, the face of Get Out, and who has defied and collected precursor nomination one after the other. The last slot seems like a shoo-in for Golden Globe winner James Franco for his turn in his self-directed comedy The Disaster Artist, but him being a subject of the current Hollywood scandal, certainly gives a pause. That said, the issue erupted with two voting days left, and with him appearing at the SAG Awards yesterday means that he’s still pushing through with his campaign and bid, and I think that will still result to a nomination. Watch out for Denzel Washington though in Roman Israel Esq. Not only did he pick up surprise Globe and SAG nods (over the likes of Tom Hanks in The Post), but remember that he came quite really close to the win last year, and there might still be some leftover love that can translate to a nomination this year.

PREDICTIONS:
• Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
• James Franco, The Disaster Artist
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

SPOILER: Denzel Washington, Roman Israel Esq.

BEST ACTRESS

It’s astonishing that almost all four actresses who have hit a clear slate of precursor run of Golden Globe, BFCA, SAG, and BAFTA, are also starring in potential Best Picture nods, as compared to their male counterparts. Frances McDormand is back 13 years after her last nomination, and is bound to get her second Lead nomination since winning back in 1996 for Fargo. Saoirse Ronan is catching up with pal Jennifer Lawrence as the fastest from their generation to pick up nods as she’s in the hunt for her third nomination already playing the titular character in Lady Bird. After missing exactly a decade ago for her critically sweeping performance in Happy Go Lucky, Sally Hawkins is bound to get her first Best Actress career nod in The Shape of Water. And newbie Margot Robbie can make history by getting both acting and producing nominations for I, Tonya where she plays infamous skating figure Tonya Harding. As for who’s completing the list, the SAGs went for Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul, a similar role that first put her in Oscar attention back in 1997. With Globe and SAG nods, this seems like an easy check for this 7x nominee, but the BAFTA snub is telling when they’ve nominated her for basically everything. In the Dame’s absence is Annette Bening getting a last minute push for Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool. She also missed last year for 20th Century Women, but Film Stars didn’t have any momentum or presence this whole awards season except for this BAFTA resuscitation. There’s also Jessica Chastain in Molly’s Game, Michelle Williams in All the Money in the World, Vicky Krieps in Phantom Thread, but in the end, these are all futile since we know that the last spot is reserved for Oscar Queen herself Meryl Streep, now entering her 21st career nomination for The Post. While it’s hilarious to think that Streep will be missing for a Spielberg vehicle, the rule still stands that “When in doubt, predict Meryl.”

PREDICTIONS:
• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep, The Post

SPOILER: Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is probably the category that has the biggest difference from what was predicted pre-awards season to where we are right now. Sure, Willem Dafoe of The Florida Project and Sam Rockwell of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri have always been ahead of the pack, but the rest range from last minute contenders to latecomers in the race. Richard Jenkins, who first received his nomination back in 2008’s The Visitor, will add another nomination under his cap, this time as part of The Shape of Water. So much statistic has been made about the “no film since 1991’s Bugsy has collected double Supporting Actor nods” and for the most part, many films came close but sizzled out in the end (Crash, The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Spotlight), but between the SAG and BAFTA nods, this stat seems like it will rest now as Woody Harrelson will likely join pal Sam Rockwell in this group. The last spot sure is a clusterfuck – the two men who were initially perceived to break the stat were Call Me by Your Names Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg but with the internal competition, both will likely miss come Oscar morning. It’s not bust yet for both to be honest – Hammer after all has been campaigning heavily and can be considered co-lead, while co-star Stuhlbarg appears in two more Best Picture contenders (The Shape of WaterThe Post) and sometimes that’s enough. Just ask John C. Reilly back in 2002. That said, it can easily go to veteran actor and Oscar winner Christopher Plummer, a last minute addition to Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World, with a flashier performance and a narrative that will likely continue to be the talk of Tinseltown.

Predictions:
• Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

SPOILER: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Just like last year, mothers seem to be front and center in this category. Two of the frontrunners are mothers on the opposite side of the spectrum – there’s critically lauded Laurie Metcalfe’s loving mother in Lady Bird and Allison Janney’s outlandish turn in I, Tonya. Both TV vets are on their first career nods, and it’s great to see these character actresses taking front and center. Octavia Spencer, who was just nominated last year for Hidden Figures is likely to break history yet again and be the first black actress to earn multiple nominations after winning. She’ll also be joining co-star Viola Davis as the most nominated black actresses in Oscar history. While she has been snubbed at the SAGs, The Shape of Water‘s overall strength puts her in a distant but safe third spot. Oscar winner Holly Hunter, on the other hand, only has SAG under her credits this season, but I think her stature makes her safe enough for a nod. Both Hong Chau and Mary J. Blige picked up Globe + SAG nods and are working on the same diversity narrative that will definitely earn them points. However, Downsizing is one of the biggest flops this season, and an unknown actress like Hong Chau isn’t likely to survive that. Blige is in a better position as Mudbound is contending in other categories, but Netflix pushing it still gives me pause. I think she’ll get her nomination for Original Song instead. As for that last spot, I’m tinkering with the two British contenders that BAFTA went for – Leslie Manville for a last minute push for Phantom Thread, but I guess I’m expecting Kristin Scott Thomas (whose only Oscar nomination was for 1996’s The English Patient) to coattail Gary Oldman’s undeniable Best Actor frontrunner status. When an actor is a huge contender, chances are it’s pulling a supporting contender with it (think of Jeff Bridges getting Maggie Gyllenhaal in, Leonardo di Caprio to Tom Hardy, Cate Blanchett to Sally Hawkins). As a matter of fact, you have to go back to 2006 for the last Best Actor winner who was also the solo acting nomination for the film he won for (that’s Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland).

Predictions:
• Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
• Allison Janney, I, Tonya
• Laurie Metcalfe, Lady Bird
• Kristin Scott-Thomas, Darkest Hour
• Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

SPOILER: Leslie Manville, Phantom Thread

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This year, majority of the Best Picture contenders are also original screenplays so it’s quite the busier of the two screenplay categories. The four frontrunners are all in play in this category, and I see all of them getting nominated. In the event of a snub, maybe The Shape of Water is the first to go since the film is lauded more for its visual experience as compared to its screenplay strength. That said, I’m still expecting it’ll get in. The last slot can go to quirky romance The Big Sick, or the talky and “important” The Post, but I feel like this is one of the categories where I, Tonya peaking on the week of the Oscar nomination voting will pay off.

Predictions:
• Get Out
• I, Tonya
• Lady Bird
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

SPOILER: The Big Sick

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The weaker of the two screenplay categories, Call Me by Your Name should easily sweep the competition come Oscar time. Joining it are other contenders such as The Disaster Artist, Mudbound, and Molly’s Game, all of whom have garnered precursors in here as well. Now it’s the last spot that’s really tricky. Nothing makes actual sense or fits the mold or pattern among the other buzzed contenders. No superhero movie has ever been nominated for a Screenplay Oscar, but both Logan and Wonder Woman are in the hunt and can make history. Sadly for them, I think they’ll separate the votes and both end up missing, Stephen Chbosky has garnered precursors for The Perks of Being a Wallflower back in 2012 and still missed, so either he gets a make up nod for Wonder, but I don’t see that happening. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool filled the BAFTA category in this spot, but the BAFTAs seem to adore that movie more and their the outlier rather than the rule. This type of empty category makes me feel that a little film with big passion can get in; thus I’m predicting The Lost City of Z to fill the last spot.

Predictions:
• Call Me by Your Name
• The Disaster Artist
• The Lost City of Z
• Molly’s Game
• Mudbound

SPOILER: Logan

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

After picking up wins from the Globes and the BFCA, In the Fade suddenly becomes the frontrunner in this category, and I think Cannes entry Loveless is in too, as well as Chilean submission A Fantastic Woman. Meanwhile, the last two slots can go to big contenders like Foxtrot and The SquareFoxtrot was initially seen as a strong frontrunner, but finds itself lacking any precursor or buzz, and not even its studio’s priority in this category, so I can see it missing the final list. With a Palme d’Or win under its belt, Ruben Ostlund is likely getting nominated too, but a part of me wants to see him snubbed so he can video his meltdown yet again, just like what happened to Force Majeure back in 2014. In their places, I went with two underdogs – Lebanon’s The Insult, handled by Cohen Media Group, also the group behind current champ The Salesman. And South Africa’s The Wound, which I can really see missing for the most buzzed contenders. But then I’d stick with this one.

Predictions:
• A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
• The Insult (Lebanon)
• In the Fade (Germany)
• Loveless (Russia)
• The Wound (South Africa)

SPOILER: Foxtrot (Israel)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

New changes in the voting pattern for the Animated Feature Film will be kinder to the mainstream efforts than to the more obscure ones. I think nominations like those of The Secret of Kells, A Cat in Paris, and Ernest & Celestine are likely not to happen anymore. That this happened in probably the weakest year for animated also makes the predicting harder. Basically, it’s Coco or bust. But then joining it are Loving Vincent and The Breadwinner — both have gained precursors over the season. It’s sad to know that Oscar nominated The Boss Baby is happening, but it seems like we’re heading towards that path. After The LEGO Movie’s snub in 2014, I don’t know if I’m ready to predict it yet so I’m sticking with Despicable Me 3, since the second one was also nominated.

Predictions:
• The Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Despicable Me 3
• Loving Vincent

SPOILER: The LEGO Batman Movie

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

City of Ghosts is the perennial favorite in this category, which is a follow-up from the Oscar nominated director of Cartel Land. If there’s one category that Netflix can claim they’re good at, it’s this one, so I feel like the Olympic-related documentary Icarus and Chasing Coral can hear themselves getting nominated.  There’s also Jane, a playful achievement of animal advocate Jane Goodall and Sundance Documentary Prize winner Last Men in Aleppo. After winning the Honorary Oscar back in November, Agnes Varda can make history and win a Competitive Oscar in the same year she won an Honorary, but I’m quite fearing that she’ll be that big snub in this category.

Predictions:
• Chasing Coral
• City of Ghosts
• Icarus
• Jane
• Last Men in Aleppo

SPOILER: Faces Places

Now as for the rest of the technical categories…

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Mudbound
• The Shape of Water

SPOILER: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Mudbound‘s Rachel Morrison will be the first female cinematographer ever nominated, so there’s that to look forward to. That said, I’ll be sticking with this ASC nominated five. If there’s a spoiler to the group, it’ll likely be Three Billboards who is gaining momentum here.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
• Beauty and the Beast
• Darkest Hour
• The Greatest Showman
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water

SPOILER: I, Tonya

There is a stroyline in I, Tonya‘s detailing about Tonya getting better costumes, so I think that might help its chances here, but with all the other contenders getting flashier outputs, it’s hard to identify which one it will push off the group.

BEST EDITING
• Baby Driver
• Dunkirk
• I, Tonya
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

SPOILER: Get Out

I tend to feel like Baby Driver and I, Tonya, both with flashy editing are targeting the same voters here so don’t be surprised to see one of them miss for something like Get Out, which is also the film’s only realistic shot at any below the line categories.

BEST HAIRSTYLING & MAKE UP
• Bright
• Darkest Hour
• I, Tonya

SPOILER: Wonder

Darkest Hour seems like the only lock in this group, and while Wonder has been getting nods left and right (and deservedly so because look what they’ve made to poor Oscar nominee Jacob Tremblay), I think it’ll miss in to something like that of Netflix’ Bright. After all, this is the same group that nominated Norbit and gave the win to Suicide Squad.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• The Shape of Water

SPOILER: Victoria & Abdul

Never underestimate Thomas Newman who scored Victoria & Abdul. He hasn’t won yet, and if there’s one musical composer who can still get in despite an underperforming movie, it’s him. Think of how he still managed to get nominated for 2013’s Saving Mr. Banks marking that film’s lone Oscar nomination.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
• “Evermore” (Beauty and the Beast)
• “Mighty River” (Mudbound)
• “Remember Me” (Coco)
• “Stand Up for Something” (Marshall)
• “This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

SPOILER: “Mystery of Love” (Call Me by Your Name)

I really hope I’m wrong with this one, but I think Oscar nominee Sufjan Stevens isn’t happening. Evermore, Remember Me, and This Is Me all look pretty safe here. I’m also predicting that this is where Mary J. Blige will be receiving her Oscar nomination. And to fill that slot, I’ve went with Diane Warren who came close in 2015, and has been working real hard to get an Oscar.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
• Beauty and the Beast
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• The Post
• The Shape of Water

SPOILER: Darkest Hour

It’s Darkest Hour vs. The Post for that last spot for me, and while I think Darkest Hour makes more sense predicting wise, I could not shake off the idea of Lincoln pulling the upset in this category back in 2012, so I must not underestimate the same team.

BEST SOUND EDITING
• Baby Driver
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi

SPOILER: Wonder Woman

This has been the same five we’ve been seeing all season, so might as well go with it.

BEST SOUND MIXING
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• Life
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• Wonder Woman

SPOILER: The Greatest Showman

I don’t think Sound Editing and Sound Mixing went 5/5 in the same year, so there’s that. This category loves musicals so The Greatest Showman is in the hunt. However, I’m thinking that the Oscars love to reward the box office success movies of the year (just like The Avengers in 2012) with a nomination and this is where I’m seeing Wonder Woman happening.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• Okja
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• War for the Planet of the Apes

SPOILER: The Shape of Water

I’m currently predicting an Arrival type of snub for The Shape of Water, and in its place, predicting Okja which I’ve read really got great reception in the Academy showcase of visual effects contenders.

MULTIPLE NOMINATIONS:
12: The Shape of Water
9: Dunkirk
7: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6: Darkest Hour, I, Tonya
5: Blade Runner 2049, Lady Bird
4: Call Me by Your Name, The Post
3: Beauty and the Beast, Get Out, Mudbound, Phantom Thread, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2: Baby Driver, Coco, The Disaster Artist, The Greatest Showman

There you have it! Happy Oscar predicting day everyone!

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Posted January 23, 2018 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, Films

Philippines’ 90th Oscar Submission: Birdshot   2 comments

BirdshotThe Film Academy of the Philippines, in charge of choosing the submission for the Academy Awards, has announced earlier today that Mikhail Red’s Birdshot is the official entry of the country for the 90th Oscars. Birdshot bested seven other movies (Die Beautiful by Jun Lana; 1st SEM by Dexter Hernandez and Allan Ibanez; Ang Araw sa Likod Mo by Dominic Nuesa; Kita Kita by Sigfrid Bernardo; Ang Manananggal sa Unit 23B by Prime Cruz; Patay na si Hesus by Victor Villanueva; Triptiko by Miguel Franco Micelena; and Sunday Beauty Queen by Baby Ruth Villarama) in the process.

Birdshot is the first submission from 25-year old director Mikhail Red, son of Raymond Red, Cannes winning director for his short film Anino. The film premiered at the Tokyo International Film Festival, was the opening film for this year’s Cinemalaya Independent Film Festival, and a winner at the Pista ng Pelikulang Pilipino last month.

The film tells the story of a young Filipino teenage girl who wanders into the boundaries of a Philippines reservation forest. Deep within the reservation, she mistakenly shoots and kills a critically endangered and protected Philippine eagle. As local authorities begin a manhunt to track down the poacher of a national bird, their investigation leads them to an even more horrific discovery. The film stars John Arcilla, Arnold Reyes, and newcomer Mary Joy Apostol.

How will Birdshot fare in the Oscar game? As for starters, it’s already competing against much high-profile films including Palme d’Or winner The Square from Sweden and other Cannes entries such as BPM (Beats Per Minute) from France, Germany’s In the Fade, Russia’s Loveless, and Austria’s Happy End. There are also other high profile contenders such as Chile’s A Fantastic Woman, Israel’s Foxtrot, Denmark’s You Disappear, and Cambodia’s First They Killed my Father directed by Oscar winner Angelina Jolie. In this regard, we’re lacking way, way behind to be noticed. Four of the last six winners in this category debuted at Cannes, one from Venice, and the other one from Toronto. We really need to put it out there/

That said, the local studio handling this is TBA Productions, also the people behind our 2015 submission Heneral Luna. While the film was not nominated nor did it advance in the shortlist, they’re a team that can use previous experience to their advantage and partner with an international distributor to assist them with their Oscar campaign.

It also helps that the film has this Western appeal, something that will not be hard for the committee to like and appreciate. This has always been a “barricade” of some sort of many of our previous entries from Anak in 2000 to Ang Babae sa Septic Tank in 2011. Birdshot is a movie that can appeal both to middlebrow and highbrow movie fans, so it can be in the running for both the popular vote and the committee save. It’s also difficult to crack how the committee save will be chosen. As per a source last year, the three “saved” films were Australia’s Tanna, Switzerland’s My Life as a Courgette, and Germany’s Toni Erdmann.

When I wrote about my potential Oscar submission analysis a few weeks ago, I predicted that it will either be Die Beautiful, Pauwi Na, or Birdshot that will be chosen as the Oscar submission. All of these will be decent picks, but it’s a year that’s tough for the country to penetrate and get that elusive Oscar nomination.

Maybe 2018 will be better for us.

Posted September 26, 2017 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, Films

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90th Oscar Foreign Language Film: What Should the Philippines Submit?   3 comments

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It’s the time of the year! One Filipino film will be chosen to represent the country for the 90th Academy Awards next year. With the rise of more local film festivals such as FDCP’s recently-concluded Pista ng Pelikulang Pilipino, and their partnership with SM Cinema – Cine Lokal – getting the requirement of seven day commercial release seems easier nowadays as compared to previous year.

To qualify as an eligible submission, the Academy’s rule states that “The motion picture must be first released in the country submitting it no earlier than October 1, 2016, and no later than September 30, 2017, and be first publicly exhibited for at least seven consecutive days in a commercial motion picture theater for the profit of the producer and exhibitor.” The country must submit its intended film before October 2, 2017.

As of this writing, only six films have submitted thus far, and none of the usual favorites have made their decisions yet. Will Submission #29 be our charm? Which film will be our best bet to advance forward to represent the country? I’ve divided them in three different categories.

DISCLAIMER: It has to be cleared that this ISN’T the final shortlist from the Film Academy of the Philippines yet, and are just mere speculations and recommendations.

FRONTRUNNERS:

Apocalypse Child

APOCALYPSE CHILD
Director: Mario Cornejo
Screenplay: Mario Cornejo, Monster Jimenez
Cast: Sid Lucero, Anicka Dolonius, RK Bagatsing, Ana Abad Santos, Gwen Zamora
Philippine Release Date: October 26, 2016

The film is set in the surfing town of Baler where Ford is wasting his youth away. Named after Francis Ford Coppola, his mother continuously hopes that the Hollywood director would someday acknowledge her son. As another surfing season is ending, he is faced to confront his past, including the myths about his life.

Winner of the Best Picture at the QC Film Festival back in 2015, Apocalypse Child only had its commercial run almost a year later of October in 2016. The film, while having a Hollywood connection in its plot, is no doubt about it one of 2015’s best offerings, but it’s just a case of something that’s not right up the Academy’s flavor. Obviously, it doesn’t undermine the greatness of Apocalypse Child, a personal favorite of mine, but just a case of oil and water not mixing together.

Area

AREA
Director: Louie Ignacio
Screenplay: Robby Tantingco
Cast: Aiai delas Alas, Allen Dizon, Sue Prado
Philippine Release Date: November 9, 2016

Named after the red light district, Area centers on Hilary, an aging prostitute, saving up money in the hopes of going to the US to find her long lost son.

Area has been hopping and collecting awards from low-key international critics, and while I don’t think it will ultimately end as a final submission pick for the country, this poverty-themed film will have its fans in the selection committee.

Birdshot

BIRDSHOT
Director: Mikhail Red
Screenplay: Mikhail Red, Rae Red
Cast: Mary Joy Apostol, John Arcilla, Arnold Reyes
Philippine Release Date: August 16, 2017

Birdshot is a coming-of-age thriller that tells the story of a young farm girl who wanders off into a Philippine forest reserve. Deep within the reservation she mistakenly shoots and kills a critically endangered and protected Philippine Eagle. As the local authorities begin a manhunt to track down the poacher of a national bird, their investigation leads them to an even more horrific discovery.

Before it opened the Cinemalaya Independent Film Festival earlier this month, Birdshot has already made rounds internationally – Goteborg, Osaka Asian, Titanic Hungary, Vilnius, Taipei, Cinemalaya, New York Asian film festivals – and a victory for director Mikhail Red as Asian  Future Best Film Award at Tokyo, so there’s no denying that it can work its international presence. That plus its critical consensus and its huge potential of a crossover international appeal can certainly make it a decent, if not great, submissions for the country.

 Bliss

BLISS
Director: Jerrold Tarog
Screenplay: Jerrold Tarog
Cast: Iza Calzado, Adrienne Vergara, TJ Trinidad, Ian Veneracion
Philippine Release Date: May 10, 2017

After involving in a film production accident that leaves her crippled, Jane Ciego, a successful actress, slowly transitions into madness after experiencing horrors and torture in her own home.

Even before its local premiere last May 10, Bliss has already made rounds because of Iza Calzado’s victory at the Osaka Asian Film Festival for this performance. This + love for Jerrold Tarog, who is no stranger here after his 2015 smash hit Heneral Luna was submitted, can certainly work for this film’s advantage to be our country’s submission.

Die Beautiful

DIE BEAUTIFUL
Director: Jun Lana
Screenplay: Jun Lana, Rody Vera
Cast: Paolo Ballesteros, Christian Bables, Joel Torre
Philippine Release Date: December 25, 2016

Friends attend the wake of Trisha, a Filipino transgender woman. They look back into the her life as she faces the adversities and triumphs of living as a transgender in Filipino society

Sweeping awards left and right, which started its victory at last year’s Tokyo International Film Festival, Die Beautiful is probably the closets contender we have this year that managed to have both great commercial and critical response, something that will surely benefit it as well. At the center of the film is Urian (and Tokyo) Best Actor Paolo Ballesteros who will surely campaign for the film if it gets selected. They can also spin an LGBT narrative here with a transgender lead character, and pop culture mentions ranging from Miley Cyrus to Lady Gaga and Beyonce can also help.

Kita Kita

KITA KITA
Director: Sigrid Andrea Bernardo
Screenplay: Sigrid Andrea Bernardo
Cast: Alessandra de Rossi, Empoy Marquez
Philippine Release Date: July 19, 2017

A blind woman falls in love with a man who uses kindness and humor to make a connection with her.

Kita Kita is the box office success story of 2017 in the Philippines, no doubt about that. So don’t be surprised to see it as a possible shortlist submission entry. This Empoy-Alessandra rom-com might be seen as too fluff to be submitted (and frankly, I agree), but then if middlebrow material like The Intouchables by France can be submitted in 2013 because of its huge box office performance, then I won’t be surprised if the local Academy goes with this. After all, Intouchables made it to the shortlist of nine only to miss the actual nod.

Patay na si Hesus

PATAY NA SI HESUS
Director: Victor Villanueva
Screenplay: Moira Lang, Fatrick Tabada
Cast: Jaclyn Jose, Chai Fonacier, Melde Montanez, Angelina Kanapi
Philippine Release Date: August 16, 2017

The death of a woman’s estranged husband brought her and her family into a road that changes their lives forever.

Another crowd-pleasing comedy, this film starring a dysfunctional family on a road trip is right up the alley of previous submissions such as Ded na si Lolo, Bwakaw, and Ang Babae sa Septic Tank. This also stars Cannes Best Actress Jaclyn Jose which can work to its advantage (but then, if her in Ma’Rosa didn’t work last year, then maybe I’m just reaching a bit here).

Pauwi Na

PAUWI NA
Director: Paolo Villaluna
Screenplay: Paolo Villaluna, Ellen Ramos
Cast: Bembol Roco, Cherry Pie Picache, Meryll Soriano, Jerald Napoles, Chai Fonacier
Philippine Release Date: August 16, 2017

The film follows a family who decide to use pedicabs so they could “pedal” their way back to the province. A series of unfortunate events occur that will either test their determination or distract them from their journey home. ‘Pauwi Na’ is a tragic-comic portrait of a dysfunctional family and the disquieting blind faith they invoke as they dream of going home.

Also titled as Pedicab, this heartwarming drama with a strong ensemble headlined by Bembol Roco and Cherry Pie Picache has already received Best Film at the Shanghai International Film Festival. I feel that this is a movie that can appeal to the international community that has the most ‘local’ flavor so to speak. While it has a tendency to be lost in the shuffle when competing against other countries, this is a good, possible submissions for us.

eRespeto

RESPETO
Director: Treb Monteras II
Screenplay: Treb Monteras II, Njel de Mesa
Cast: Abra, Dido dela Paz, Loonie, Chai Fonacier
Philippine Release Date: TBD

Hendrix dreams of hip-hop greatness, but  he’s spiraling down a rabbit-hole of crime and poverty until he meets Doc, an old poet still haunted by his martial law past. Respeto is a celebration of the underground Pinoy hip-hop world and how we find the words to find ourselves.

Winning the top plum at Cinemalaya earlier this month, Respeto teases a commercial screening already, and while there is no definite date given yet, it needs to have a seven-day run by September 30. While hip-hop and fliptop is something that can appeal to a foreign audience, I fear for a “lost in translation” scenario on how this will be received internationally as compared to the love it got here.

Sunday Beauty Queen

SUNDAY BEAUTY QUEEN
Director: Babyruth Villarama Gutierrez
Cast: Rudelie Acosta, Mylyn Jacobo, Leo Selomenia
Philippine Release Date: December 25, 2016

Beneath Hong Kong’s glittering facade, Filipinas working as domestic helpers work in relative anonymity and for near slave wages. In a beauty pageant like no other in the world, five helpers give themselves makeovers for a day and gleefully reclaim their dignity.

There’s already a narrative written for this because it can be the first ever documentary submitted by the country for Oscar consideration. The last documentary feature to be nominated for a Foreign Language Film Oscar is 2013’s The Missing Picture from Cambodia. It’s also helped by the idea that the concept of OFWs is so Pinoy in culture, and we’ve submitted those in the past too (2000’s Anak comes to mind).

POTENTIAL SHORTLIST MENTIONS:

header 2

While I don’t think these films will end up as submissions, don’t be surprised to see any of these in this group to make it in the final shortlist:

2 COOL 2 B 4GOTTEN
Director: Petersen Vargas
Screenplay: Jason Paul Laxamana
Cast: Khalil Ramos, Jameson Blake, Ethan Salvador, Ana Capri
Philippine Release Date: March 15, 2017

Winning Best Picture at the Cinema One Originals 2016, this coming of age story of a young boy has done some international festival rounds (even winning an Audience Choice in Italy), but its too small scope will certainly hinder its chances.

HAMOG
Director: Ralston Javier
Screenplay: Ralston Javier
Cast: Zaijan Jaranilla, Therese Lamvar, OJ Mariano, Lou Veloso, Anna Luna
Philippine Release Date: August 16, 2017

Like, 2 Cool 2 Be 4goten, Hamog might be seen as more of a low-key contender, which can be quite the challenge if it faces and more buzzed entries from other countries.

ANG HULING CHACHA NI ANITA
Director: Sigrid Andrea Bernardo
Screenplay: Sigrid Andrea Bernardo
Cast: Therese Malvar, Angel Aquino, Jay Bordon
Philippine Release Date: June 16, 2017

There have been instances from previous years when we included films from older years to make the shortlist on their actual year of commercial release (Boses in 2012, Alagwa in 2013) so this one certainly fits the bill.

PAGLIPAY
Director: Zig Dulay
Screenplay: Zig Dulay
Cast: Garry Cabalic, Anna Luna, Joan dela Cruz
Philippine Release Date: August 16, 2017

Again, another film that might be perceived as too low-key for a submissions entry but is certainly deserving to be up for consideration.

SAVING SALLY
Director: Avid Liongoren
Screenplay: Carlo Ledesma, Charlene Sawit-Esguerra, Avid Liongoren
Cast: Rhian Ramos, Enzo Marcos, TJ Trinidad
Philippine Release Date: December 25, 2016

While this type of animation can work on its advantage when attracting the international crowd, the story might be seen as too lightweight which can hinder its overall chances. Romantic light stories aren’t really the Academy’s cup of tea.

SEKLUSYON
Director: Erik Matti
Screenplay: Anton C. Santamaria
Cast: Ronnie Alonte, Rhed Bustamante, Phoebe Walker
Philippine Release Date: December 25, 2016

For an MMFF film, this one got solid reviews and even swept the Gabi ng Parangal of last year. This is also from the Dan Villegas and Jennylyn Mercado team-up, which reminds us that English Only Please, was part of the short-list that year.

SLEEPLESS
Director: Prime Cruz
Screenplay: Jen Chuaunsu
Cast: Glaiza de Castro, Dominic Roco, TJ Trinidad
Philippine Release Date: May 26, 2017

With its surprising box office receipts and a good to great critical reception, this can fit the slot of the rom-com slot that has included films such as English Only Please and That Thing Called Tadhana.

ELIGIBILITY ISSUES:

header 3

The other big winner at this year’s Cinemalaya Independent Film Festival is Kiko Boksingero from director Thop Nazareno, a small gem of a film about an aspiring boxer who met his father. The critical standout at the ToFarm Film Festival is What Home Feels Like which stars indie favorites Bembol Roco and Irma Adlawan. Both of the said films have no commercial releases yet since their festival run. Meanwhile, Sheron Dayoc’s Women of the Weeping River, the biggest sweeper at this year’s Gawad Urian including the top Best Picture plum (among more Best Picture prizes), will definitely get a commercial release from TBA, though date of release isn’t publicly revealed yet. If eligible, it’s a strong contender for the submission.

FINAL VERDICT:

After last year’s bloodbath of competition between frontrunner Ma’Rosa by Brillante Mendoza and the late gamechange Ang Babaeng Humayo by Lav Diaz, this year looks tame in comparison. Of course I’m talking about the international buzz-level and does not reflect the quality of these films mentioned above. 2016 was probably the strongest presence we had in the international scene with Competition entries at the Big 3 festivals and winning a prize in all three too. As for this year’s entries, I’d trim it down to three – Birdshot which I can see having a really great international appeal (its toughest challenge is putting itself out there which it has already started to do), Pauwi Na (heart tugging family film that has won Shanghai’s top prize already), and Die Beautiful. If I were the one deciding, my vote goes to Die Beautiful, as I think it’s right up the Academy’s alley – great acting performances, has this crossover crowd pleasing appeal, and possible narrative for its central transgender character.

Share your thoughts with me! You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

40th Gawad Urian Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

The Manunuri ng Pelikulang Pilipino, people behind the annual Gawad Urian Awards, is celebrating the awards show’s 40th year. Started back in 1977, the award-giving body has recognized more than 200 Filipino films and 300 actors and actresses in all 12 of its categories. What I like most about the Urian is their complete archiving history and that they’re the only one of the four major award giving bodies to have maintained some sort of credibility. This year is pretty special for the group with Vilma Santos as the recipient of the Natatanging Gawad Urian. Personally wishing that they do some sort of a Gawad Urian Family Album of all the acting winner recipients thus far, ala Oscar family album style. Anyway, as per annual tradition, here are my prediction on who’ll end up as winners in 13 of their categories.

best pic urian

 

BEST PICTURE
“Ang Babaeng Humayo”
“Baboy Halas”
“Ma’Rosa”
“Paglipay”
“Pamilya Ordinaryo”
“Women of the Weeping River”

This year, Women of the Weeping River received the most nominations and what works in it favor is that the Urian is totally open arms when it comes to recognizing regional cinema, as shown by wins of Ang Damgo ni Eleuteria in 2010 and Ang Paglalakbay ng mga Bituin sa Gabing Madilim in 2012. Giving it competition are Cinemalaya breakout Pamilya Ordinaryo which swept last year’s Cinemalaya Awards and is a consistent critical favorite from last year. That said, two films have put our country to world cinema spotlight last year: Cannes entry Ma’Rosa by Brillante Mendoza and Golden Lion recipient Ang Babaeng Humayo by Lav Diaz. It’s victory at Venice makes me think that Diaz is ahead, even by a hair only, in this race.

Prediction: Ang Babaeng Humayo
Alternate:
Ma’Rosa

direction

BEST DIRECTOR
Sheron Dayoc (Women of the Weeping River)
Lav Diaz (Ang Babaeng Humayo)
Zig Dulay (Paglipay)
Bagane Fiola (Baboy Halas)
Avid Liongoren (Saving Sally)
Lem Lorca (Ned’s Project)
Brillante Mendoza (Ma’Rosa)
Eduardo Roy Jr. (Pamilya Ordinaryo)
Paolo Villaluna (Pauwi Na)

In recent years, the Urian doesn’t really care if the same film gets Best Picture and Best Director, as I think they’re more keen on spreading the wealth. That said, Lav Diaz has won this category only twice (in 2001 for Batang Westside and 2014 for Mula sa Kung Ano Ang Noon) that they’d be inclined to give him a third win here. Watch out for Sheron Dayoc as most possible to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Lav Diaz (Ang Babaeng Humayo)
Alternate: 
Sheron Dayoc (Women of the Weeping River)

actor

BEST ACTOR
Tommy Abuel (Dagsin)
Paolo Ballesteros (Die Beautiful)
Garry Cabalic (Paglipay)
Ronwaldo Martin (Pamilya Ordinaryo)
Khalil Ramos (2Cool To B 4gotten)
Bembol Roco (Pauwi Na)
Pepe Smith (Singing in Graveyards)

If we’re going with buzz, then Paolo Ballesteros seems like a shoo-in for this category already. His Tokyo International Film Fest winning performance in Die Beautiful is the stuff of which awards are made of. That said, this somehow reminds me of how Dennis Trillo, only an Urian left to grandslam, suddenly lost his category after being considered as the biggest lock for Aishite Imasu back in 2004. Sometimes, when a winner looks so obvious, the Manunuri tends to go to a different direction. With that, I’m currently predicting Ronwaldo Martin, younger brother of Urian winner Coco Martin, to net the Best Actor trophy for his performance as a street robber in Pamilya Ordinaryo.

Prediction: Ronwaldo Martin (Pamilya Ordinaryo)
Alternate: 
Paolo Ballesteros (Die Beautiful)

actress

BEST ACTRESS
Irma Adlawan (Oro)
Nora Aunor (Hinulid)
Ai-Ai Delas Alas (Area)
Angeli Bayani (Ned’s Project)
Jaclyn Jose (Ma’Rosa)
Hasmine Killip (Pamilya Ordinaryo)
Elizabeth Oropesa (Mrs.)
Cherry Pie Picache (Pauwi Na)
Charo Santos Concio (Ang Babaeng Humayo)
Precious Laila Ulao (Women of the Weeping River)

The Urian surely loves their female acting categories this past year as both categories had 10 nominees each, definitely more than their male counterparts. Nora Aunor, Angeli Bayani, Cherry Pie Picache, and Elizabeth Oropesa have all won before for far stronger vehicles as compared to the ones they’re nominated for this year so I think they’re sitting this one out. Newbie Hasmine Killip would have made sense in a far weaker year, not this one with equally amazing co-nominees (also in line with my narrative, I’m already predicting Ronwaldo Martin, and I don’t see Manunuri loving Pamilya Ordinaryo that much to give it both lead wins). There’s a path for Precious Laila Ulao to win this one (as it reminds me of Fe GinGing Hyde’s win for Sheika in 2010, but again, that was a year with no strong frontrunner, again unlike this year. Both Irma Adlawan and AiAi delas Alas are strong contenders but the fact they they are both their  films’ sole nominations gives me pause (for the record, the last Best Actress winner for a non-Best Picture nominated film was Maja Salvador in Thelma in 2011, but that was the year when they recognized the up and coming teens in the lead acting categories). In the end, I think this one is between Jaclyn Jose and Charo Santos. Jose is an Urian darling with 15 nominations under her name and five previous wins (her last was for Sarong Banggi in 2005) nominated for a role that bagged her the elusive and historic Cannes Best Actress win. Meanwhile, Charo Santos is an iconic figure in the industry in her acting comeback since the 70s in the Best Picture frontrunner. This is the perfect narrative to give her an Urian Best Actress win. I’d love to say that they’d go for a cop-out and give both Jose and Santos a much-talked about tie, but for predictions sake, I’d go safe with the Cannes winner Jaclyn Jose.

Prediction: Jaclyn Jose (Ma’Rosa)
Alternate: 
Charo Santos Concio (Ang Babaeng Humayo)

supp actor

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bables (Die Beautiful)
Nonie Buencamino (Ang Babaeng Humayo)
John Lloyd Cruz (Ang Babaeng Humayo)
Taha Daranda (Weeping of the Weeping River)
Julio Diaz (Ma’Rosa)
Jess Mendoza (Hinulid)

This category loves breakout young actors (unless you’re Dennis Trillo) and I’m more confident with Christian Bables to win here than his onscreen bestfriend Paolo Ballesteros. Bables is a breakout performance that garnered him awards and accolades already, and I see the Urian following suit. That said, it won’t surprise me if they decide to reward Women of the Weeping River and give Taha Daranda a win, or even a second consecutive Urian to John Lloyd Cruz for Ang Babaeng Humayo.

 

Prediction: Christian Bables (Die Beautiful)
Alternate: 
Taha Daranda (Weeping of the Weeping River)

supp actress

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sharifa Pearlsia Ali-dans (Women of the Weeping River)
Rhed Bustamante (Seklusyon)
Joan Dela Cruz (Paglipay)
Lotlot De Leon (Mrs.)
Barbie Forteza (Tuos)
Janine Gutierrez (Dagsin)
Anna Luna (Paglipay)
Lui Manansala (Ned’s Project)
Mariam Zimadar Haji Caranay Raper (Women of the Weeping River)
Meryll Soriano (Pauwi Na)

First up, apologies for the lack of a Mariam Raper photo. Even Cinema One’s promos for Urian lack her photos so I can’t seem to find one. That said, this is one category where there’s a lack of a clear frontrunner the same way that Paolo Ballesteros, Jaclyn Jose, Charo Santos, and Christian Bables are in their respective categories. Save for Meryll Soriano, none of these women have won an Urian and only Barbie Forteza is a previous nominee prior to this year. In a category as open as this one, I can see them going more adventurous (and by adventurous, I mean a young actress) with their picks leading me to predict a Barbie Forteza win for her role in Tuos. If not her, then Rhed Bustamante’s creepy kid in Seklusyon can join Serena Dalrymple’s 1998 win here as the other child acting performer in this category.

Prediction: Barbie Forteza (Tuos)
Alternate:
Rhed Bustamante (Seklusyon)

Now as for the rest of the categories…

SCREENPLAY:
Prediction:
Lav Diaz, Ang Babaeng Humayo
Alternate:
Eduardo Roy Jr.,Pamilya Ordinaryo

PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Prediction: Ryan Cuatrona & Celine Belino “Hinulid
Alternate: Angel Diesta, “Die Beautiful

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Prediction: Albert Banzon, “Paglipay
Alternate: Raphael Meting & Mark Limbaga, “Baboy Halas

MUSIC:
Prediction: Kit Mendoza, “Women of the Weeping River
Alternate: Jema Pamintuan, “Tuos

EDITING:
Prediction: Carlo Manatad, “Pamilya Ordinaryo
Alternate: Lav Diaz, “Ang Babaeng Humayo

SOUND:
Prediction: Albert Michael Idioma, “Ma’Rosa
Alternate: Albert Michael Idioma & Immanuel Verona, “Women of the Weeping River

DOCUMENTARY:
Prediction:
Sunday Beauty Queens (Baby Ruth Villarama)
Alternate: Forbidden Memory (Gutierrez Mangansakan)

The 40th Gawad Urian awards will happen on July 20 and will be shown on Cinema One.

Posted July 18, 2017 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, Films

Tagged with , ,

69th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 4: Drama   Leave a comment

And we’re down to the last remaining genre as we predict the #2017Emmys nominees for this year. After tackling Reality and Variety, TV Movies and Limited Series, and Comedy, we’re doing Drama!

01

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• The Crown, “Hyde Park Corner” (Stephen Daldry)
• The Handmaid’s Tale, “Offred” (Reed Morano)
• Homeland, “America First” (Lesli Linka Glatter)
• Stranger Things, “Holly, Jolly” (Shawn Levy)
• Stranger Things, “The Vanishing of Will Byers” (The Duffer Brothers)
• Westworld, “The Bicameral Mind” (Jonathan Nolan)

Seventh nominee: The Americans, “The Soviet Division” (Chris Long)

It’s a tad unusual that I’m predicting five nominees all from freshman shows this year, but then all are very showy directing pieces. I’m currently predicting Stranger Things to go really big this year; thus I’m going with two episodes from that show. For that remaining returning slot, I’m currently going with Homeland‘s “America First” episode directed by Leslie Linka Glater. Homeland has been nominated four of the last five years and three of those were from Glater.

02

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• The Americans, “The Soviet Division” (Joel Fields & Joe Weisberg)
• Better Call Saul, “Chicanery” (Gordon Smith)
• The Crown, “Assassins” (Peter Morgan)
• The Handmaid’s Tale, “Offred” (Bruce Miller)
• The Leftovers, “The Book of Nora” (Damon Lindelof & Tom Perrotta & Tom Spezialy)
• Stranger Things, “The Vanishing of Will Byers” (The Duffer Brothers)

Seventh nominee: This Is Us, “Memphis” (Dan Fogelman)

If there’s one category that I’m most confident with The Leftovers, it’s for this one. Both The Handmaid’s Tale and The Crown were wise with their submissions, so I’m confident both are getting in too. I feel like the pilot of Stranger Things is a writer’s dream taking in a familiar territory and at the same time, building a mystery for the whole season. The Americans has been nominated for the last two years here, and while this is the least praised season thus far, I still think the show has its fans within the branch. I’m including in Better Call Saul only because this is too familiar of an episode that will appeal to the writers with its court scenes and long monologues and dialogues.

03

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Hank Azaria, “Ray Donovan”
• Beau Bridges, “Masters of Sex”
• Gerald McRaney, “This Is Us”
• Ben Mendelsohn, “Bloodline”
• Lars Mikkelsen, “House of Cards”
• Denis O’Hare, “This Is Us”

Seventh nominee: Glynn Turmann, “Queen Sugar”

Current champ Hank Azaria is eligible once again for his performance in Ray Donovan so it seems likely he’ll get a nod to go for his consecutive win here. Beau Bridges has been nominated twice for this role already and the only reason why he missed last year is because he wasn’t eligible here and instead in the Supporting category. After pulling off an upset win in Supporting last year, Ben Mendelsohn is eligible here this time around so it might be an easy nom for this Aussie actor. A House of Cards actor has been nominated the last three years, and I expect the trend to continue, so I’m betting on Lars Mikkelsen to make it. For the last spot, I’ll go with two This Is Us actors: Gerard McRaney who made an impact in his role in the show, and Denis O’Hare who is a multiple Emmy nominee.

04

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Gillian Anderson, “American Gods”
• Alexis Bledel, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
• Laverne Cox, “Orange is the New Black”
• Cloris Leachman, “American Gods”
• Shannon Purser, “Stranger Things”
• Allison Wright, “The Americans”

Seventh nominee: Ann Dowd, “The Leftovers”

I don’t think the category campaign will confuse voters so I’m a tad certain that Alexis Bledel is getting in here, especially after those raves she received for the performance. Barb is an iconic pop culture figure already, so I’m seeing a scenario of Shnnon Purser getting in as well. Laverne Cox has been nominated once in the guest but it was still when the show was competing in the comedy categories. That said, her narrative and great showcase can get her a second career nod for this role. Since co-star Margo Martindale has been promoted to supporting status already, I’m currently predicting Allison Wright to get in here as she’s also probably helped by the goodwill of starring in Feud. While I was initially tempted to nominate two actresses from American Gods here considering it does not have any Emmy buzz outside of this category, these are Gillian Anderson and Cloris Leachman that we’re talking about here, both who have won and nominated yet again with Emmys.

05

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul”
• David Harbour, “Stranger Things”
• Jared Harris, “The Crown”
• Ron Cephas Jones, “This Is Us”
• John Lithgow, “The Crown”
• Jeffrey Wright, “Westworld”

Seventh nominee: Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan”

Because I don’t think that this category will have a clean sweep of newbies, then Jonathan Banks make the most sense as a comeback nominee to get his third bid for an Emmy in Better Call Saul. John Lithgow is perceived as the current frontrunner but expect co-star Jared Harris (who was last nominated here for his turn in Mad Men) to join him. I’m a bit cautious with Westworld supporting actors as it reminds me a bit of Boardwalk Empire’s situation in its first season when we’re predicting a star to get in, only for everyone to miss. Thus, I’m going only with Emmy winner Jeffrey Wright to get in here. David Harbour is a hot or miss, but I think he’ll be carried with the Stranger Things love that’s bound to happen. Ron Cephas Jones makes sense as that nominee that can be carried because of the passion for both the actor and the show he’s in.

06

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things”
• Vanessa Kirby, “The Crown”
• Chrissy Metz, “This Is Us”
• Thandie Newton “Westworld”
• Winona Ryder, “Stranger Things”
• Maura Tierney, “The Affair”

Seventh nominee: Margo Martindale, “The Americans”

Like in Supporting Actor, I don’t think it’ll be an easy clean slate of nominees, so it’s a choice between Constance Zimmer and Maura Tierney. I went with the latter only because of name reputation. Vanessa Kirby is a scene-stealing name and the main push of the show in this category so Netflix is really serious in snatching her a nod. After getting Globe and SAG nods, Thandie Newton is Westworld‘s biggest chance for an acting nomination. Millie Bobby Brown already made her name in pop culture history, so that’s already an assured nomination. I’m a bit more skeptical about Winona Ryder, but I think she can sneak in and get a welcome nomination. With no co-star to battle with, I think Chrissy Metz is one of the breakout stars of the season and will likely add Emmy nominee in her resumé.

07

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
• Rami Malek, “Mr. Robot”
• Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
• Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”
• Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”
• Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

Seventh nominee: Justin Theroux, “The Leftovers”

All six nominees are eligible to come back and receive a nomination, so I think Kevin Spacey, Matthew Rhys, and Bob Odenkirk will have no problem getting nominated yet again. Rami Malek can be that current winner only to be snubbed the next year, considering the close to non-existent buzz for Mr. Robot‘s second season, but I think he can sneak in one more nod this year. Since his win last year for People vs. OJ Simpson, Sterling K. Brown is in the hunt again for another Emmy with his great reviews and a surprise SAG nod for This is Us. For that last spot, I’m torn between Liev Schreiber to get a third consecutive nod for Ray Donovan or passion to bring Justin Theroux to land an Emmy nom. With Showtime managing to snatch random nods each year at the Emmys, I’m thinking Schreiber still has it in him to get one more nomination.

08

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Carrie Coon, “The Leftovers”
• Claire Danes, “Homeland”
• Claire Foy, “The Crown”
• Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
• Keri Russell, “The Americans”
• Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

Seventh nominee: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”

Two newbies are almost assured to get nominations this year and they’re also the two frontrunners for the win. There’s Claire Foy in The Crown and Elisabeth Moss in The Handmaid’s Tale. After getting in for a more crowded category last year, Keri Russell is still in for a second bid in The Americans. Three actresses who have been mainstays here the past few years were Oscar winner Viola Davis who was the champ here in 2015, Claire Danes who won back to back in 2012 and 2013, and Robin Wright who has been nominated four times now. I don’t think all three will get in this year, so I’m leaving Viola Davis off only because there is literally no buzz for her show anymore. In her place, I think the huge buzz for The Leftovers can net Carrie Coon a surprise nomination in the end.

09

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES:
• The Americans (FX)
• Better Call Saul (AMC)
• The Crown (Netflix)
• The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
• Stranger Things (Netflix)
• This Is Us (NBC)
• Westworld (HBO)

Eighth nominee: The Leftovers (HBO)

With Game of Thrones absence this year, it’s an up for grabs race for everyone. Both The Americans and Better Call Saul can add another nomination for the show in the top race here.  The two Netflix shows have the pop culture buzz and the critical response to both get in so expect The Crown and Stranger Things to be nominated as well. The reception for The Handmaid’s Tale is perfect fit for Hulu to finally join the club and get nominated for the top plum. It’s a tad weird that House of Cards is missing in a post-election season no less, but between Netflix having stronger contenders plus a less buzzy season, I think it will finally miss this year. HBO, on the other hand, has two contenders to replace GoT here: the sci-fi show Westworld and cult favorite The Leftovers. I don’t think there’s room for both to get in, and even if I’m so tempted to go with a NGNG prediction of The Leftovers, I’ll stick with Westworld here. The last network show to be nominated for the top prize is The Good Wife for Season2 back in 2011 and since then, network dramas have find it really hard to get back again. Even huge show Empire missed three years ago and The Good Wife missed for its widely loved fifth season. That said, i think This Is Us will probably do the trick and get in this year.

There you have it! Can’t wait for the Emmy nominations tonight! talk to me on Twitter: @nikowl.

Posted July 13, 2017 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, TV

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69th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 3: Comedy   Leave a comment

It’s still Emmys 2017 week here at Tit for Tat! The last two days we’ve discussed both Reality and Variety as well as the TV Movie and Limited Series categories. It’s time to move to the funniest shows of the season: the Comedy genre!

01

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Atlanta, “B.A.N” (Donald Glover)
• I Love Dick, “A Short History of Weird Girls” (Jill Solloway)
• Master of None, “The Thief” (Aziz Ansari)
• Silicon Valley, “Server Error” (Mike Judge)
• Veep, “Groundbreaking” (David Mandel)
• Veep, “Justice” (Dale Stern)

Seventh nominee: Dear White People, “Chapter V” (Barry Jenkins)

It’s noteworthy to mention that Transparent has won this category the last two years, thanks to Jill Solloway, but this year she opted to submit for that and went for I Love Dick instead. I’m really not sure if the risk will pay off for her, but I think she has enough supporters to get her a third bid for the win. Silicon Valley and Veep are likely to get nominated again, and like last year, I’m going with multiple nods for the current Best Comedy Series champ. I’m certain that Master of None will also get nominated, the question though is for which episode? The Thief seems likeliest to get in here in this category. For that last spot, I can see another episode of Master of None getting in or Oscar winner Barry Jenkins for his episode in Dear White People. That said, I’m counting on Donald Glover’s directed Atlanta episode to snag a nom here.

02

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Atlanta, “B.A.N” (Donald Glover)
• Catastrophe, “Episode 5” (Rob Delaney & Sharon Horgan)
• Fleabag, “Episode 1” (Phoebe Waller-Bridge)
• Master of None, “Thanksgiving” (Aziz Ansari & Lena Waithe)
• Silicon Valley, “Success Failure” (Alec Berg)
• Veep, “Groundbreaking” (David Mandel)

Seventh nominee: Better Things, “Woman is the Something of the Something” (Pamela Adlon & Louis CK)

The writers branch usually is a breath of fresh air and the least likely to join usual consensus when it comes to nominating shows. This category has given nods to shows like Sports Night, Freaks and Geeks, Community, and Catastrophe. This year, I think the recipient of that slot per se, is writer/actor Phoebe Waller-Bridge for the pilot of Fleabag. I’m sensing a bit of an Episodes vibe from Catastrophe after its surprise nod here last year, and with only one episode submitted, I think it’s in. Then there are the usual suspects: Veep, Silicon Valley, and Master of None.  I’m currently predicting that Atlanta will both get in Writing and Directing, but don’t be shocked if the tandem of Pamela Adlon & Louis CK will push Better Things to a nod.

03

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Becky Ann Baker, “Girls”
• Angela Bassett, “Master of None”
• Carrie Fisher, “Catastrophe”
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”
• Laurie Metcalfe, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Kristen Wiig, “Saturday Night Live”

Seventh nominee: Maya Rudolph, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”

I think there are two surefire contenders here with regular mainstay in this category, Melissa McCarthy for hosting yet another season of Saturday Night Live. I also think Carrie Fisher will net a posthumous nod for Catastrophe and might even contend for a win once nominated. Kristen Wiig has two shows in contention and while it’s her Last Man on Earth that gets more critical acclaim, her SNL hosting is an easy namecheck here. I’m not sure if voters are totally *over* the Big Bang Theory to drop both Christine Baranski and Laurie Metcalfe, so I’m retaining the latter here especially since Emmys tend to love nominating her. Angela Bassett is the standout guest actress mentioned from Master of None, and she’s a multiple Emmy nominee who checks a lot of boxes in terms of pedigree, show stature, and performance so I’m currently predicting her. Last slot is tricky. It can go to either Maya Rudolph in an too out there performance in Kimmy Schmidt, but I’m probably in wishful thinking mode so I’m going with Becky Ann Baker for Girls.

04

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Dave Chapelle, “Saturday Night Live”
• Tom Hanks, “Saturday Night Live”
• Hugh Laurie, “Veep”
• Peter MacNicol, “Veep”
• Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Saturday Night Live”
• Peter Scolari, “Girls”

Seventh nominee: Jon Hamm, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”

With his surprise win last year, I think Peter Scolari will be an easy inclusion this time around inspite of getting a more limited screentime as compared to his winning season. I’m not sure if Girls is strong enough to net multiple nods so I’m ruling both Riz Ahmed and Matthew Rhys out here. Meanwhile, two shows who are strong enough to get multiple nods are current Best Comedy Series winner Veep with Peter MacNicol and Hugh Laurie, as well as the trio of Saturday Night Live hosts: Dave Chapelle, Tom Hanks, and Lin-Manuel Miranda. I’m most cautious about the last one, but he seems to be an it guy who has been nominated at the Oscars and Tonys so he’s literally everywhere the last two years or so.

05

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
• Gaby Hoffmann, “Transparent”
• Judith Light, “Transparent”
• Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
• Rita Moreno, “One Day at a Time”
• Allison Williams, “Girls”

Seventh nominee: Kathryn Hahn, “Transparent”

With Allison Janney moving in Lead, this opens up a slot here as well as Niecy Nash leaving with Getting On ineligible this time around. First up, let’s discuss the mainstays: Chlumsky, current winner McKinnon, and Judith Light of Transparent. I wonder if Kathryn Hahn and her good will can overcome possible perennial nominee Gaby Hoffmann but I’ll stay safe and predict the latter. It’s literally been decades since Rita Moreno last got nominated for an Emmy and she was snubbed after being widely predicted for Jane the Virgin, but I see Netflix factor working its charm to net her a welcome back nod. I don’t know what to make of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt but I feel it’s on a decline in terms of Emmy nods, so I’m not feeling Jane Krakowski this year. Instead, I’m putting Girls’ Allison Williams to snatch an Emmy nod due to the Get Out lovefest and a way to honor and nominate the finale season of Girls.

06

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Alec Baldwin, “Saturday Night Live”
• Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
• Tony Hale, “Veep”
• Timothy Simons, “Veep”
• Matt Walsh, “Veep”

Seventh nominee: Louie Anderson, “Baskets”

Does it make sense when I say that Alec Baldwin getting in or missing out are both feasible scenario? Baldwin donning Trump is an easy scenario of Hollywood making a statement, but then again Baldwin donning Trump is too easy a scenario to give this multiple Emmy winner another nod. I’m still thinking that Burgess still has at least an Emmy nod in him despite UKS’ decline in buzz. Ty Burrell seems to me is that someone who’ll likely be nominated as long as the show is still on air despite losing all buzz already, so I’m still keeping him in. For a show that is not as praised or acclaimed as the previous ones, we have to keep in mind that Veep is still a 2x winner for the top Emmy plum and it really has a huge recall among voters. Thus, I’m predicting Timothy Simons to join both Tony Hale and Matt Walsh as nominees here…which also means I’m predicting current winner Louie Anderson to miss out. There’s a huge chance he’ll really get in again, but we all had stranger winner to snubee scenarios before (Eric Stonestreet, Julianna Margulies etc), and he seems to fit the bill.

07

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Allison Janney, “Mom”
• Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
• Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”
• Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”
• Phoebe Waller-Bridge, “Fleabag”

Seventh nominee: Issa Rae, “Insecure”

With Allison Janney moving in Lead, I think she’ll still get in as it’s the same trajectory she had with her The West Wing fate, only that was for a show that’s really loved by the Emmys. of course at this stage, suffice to say, Queen JLD is in and is probably in the hunt for the record breaking sixth consecutive win. Golden Globe winner Tracee Ellis Ross is likely to garner another nomination too this year. I’m still predicting both Ellie Kemper and Lily Tomlin, even if that means I’m more confident in the latter and can see a scenario of the former missing. The last spot seems open for a passion contender, and while I’m torn if it’s Issa Rae or Phoebe Waller-Bridge (maybe both get in and Kemper misses out in the end), I went with the latter.

08

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”
• Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”
• Donald Glover, “Atlanta”
• William H. Macy, “Shameless”
• Thomas Middleditch, “Silicon Valley”
• Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”

Seventh nominee: Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”

All six men nominated last year are likely to get in again, but Golden Globe winning Donald Glover (and his show Atlanta) is too buzzy a contender to be snubbed. That means leaving out the weakest contender from the group — Will Forte.

09

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:
• Atlanta (FX)
• black-ish (ABC)
• Master of None (Netflix)
• Silicon Valley (HBO)
• Transparent (Amazon)
• Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
• Veep (HBO)

Eighth nominee: Modern Family (ABC)

With Atlanta getting really huge buzz and acclaim, it’s path to a series nomination is really likely. I’m torn on who leaves then: is it Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt who’s on a decline buzz-wise? Is it former 5x champ Modern Family especially in the presence of co-ABC sitcom black-ish? Is it Transparent which has been the receiving end of “but it’s not a comedy claim?” I went with Modern Family out only because it seems old news by now.

To complete the predictions, it’s time for the drama category tomorrow!

Let’s discuss on Twitter: @nikowl

Posted July 11, 2017 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, TV

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69th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 2: TV Movie and Limited Series   Leave a comment

Welcome to Part 2 of our #Emmys2017 week here at Tit for Tat. Before the nomination announcement on July 13, I’ll be sharing my predictions on who’ll get Emmy nominated in the different categories up for this year’s Primetime Emmys. We started with the Reality and Variety categories yesterday, and today’s spotlight is on TV Movies and Limited Series. Personally speaking, this is the most exciting part of this year’s awards as some of the best and most praised shows are competing here for this year.

01

OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE:
• Black Mirror: San Junipero (Netflix)
• Killing Reagan (National Geographic)
• The Immortal Life Of Henrietta Lacks (HBO)
• Sherlock: The Lying Detective (Masterpiece) (PBS)
• The Wizard Of Lies (HBO)

Sixth nominee: Churchill’s Secret (Masterpiece) (PBS)

It still baffles me how Netflix managed to pull off submitting one episode here instead of the whole show in Limited Series, but they probably took advantage of the relatively weak year for television movies. They went with their most acclaimed episode of the season, the futuristic San Junipero, and I feel like getting the nod is its toughest battle. Once nominated, it will easily sail to a win come September. HBO has two entries to the race this year, both lukewarm in reception and buzz. First, we have the Robert de Niro starrer The Wizard of Lies, and then we have Oprah in The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks. While both are shoo-in in terms of getting nominated, only the former stands a chance to actually win here. For its fourth installment, Sherlock submitted The Lying Detective, and there’s no reason to see it getting snubbed considering all previous editions have been nominated here before. For that last spot, there’s a potential of contenders that can snatch that spot: PBS has Churchill, Lifetime has Suite Francaise with Michelle Williams and Matthias Schoenarts, and Custody with Viola Davis.  Netflix has The Most hated Woman in America with Melissa Leo. That said, I’ll go with National Geographic’s Killing Reagan which has a tad of good history here with two of the previous Killing series being nominated as well.

02

OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES:
• American Crime (ABC)
• Big Little Lies (HBO)
• Fargo (FX)
• Feud: Bette and Joan (FX)
• The Night Of (HBO)

Sixth nominee: The Young Pope (HBO)

Three slots are already assured here: HBO’s pop culture phenomenon Big Little Lies, the third season of Fargo, and Ryan Murphy’s breakout season of Feud, featuring the infamous rivalry of Bette Davis and Joan Crawford. Sitting safely in fourth I think is HBO’s other series The Night Of, which if snubbed — will only be because it came out really early last year. For the last spot, it can either go to HBO’s third pony in the race, the Jude Law starrer The Young Pope, or Guerilla which stars Emmy nominee Idris Elba. While ABC has pulled off the plug when it comes to American Crime, I think it can still squeak in one last nod just for the pedigree of the show being nominated for the previous two seasons.

03

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Riz Ahmed, “The Night Of”
• Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: The Lying Detective”
• Robert de Niro, “The Wizard of Lies”
• Jude Law, “The Young Pope”
• Ewan McGregor, “Fargo”
• John Turturro, “The Night Of”

Seventh nominee: Geoffrey Rush, “Genius”

Robert de Niro has never been nominated for an Emmy, so we’re sure he ain’t missing for The Wizars of Lies. Same goes for Ewan McGregor’s double trouble performance in Fargo. Benedict Cumberbatch is a previous Emmy winner for this performance, so I think he’s still getting in a last time for Sherlock. Both Riz Ahmed and John Turturro have been nominated for Golden Globes and SAG for The Night Of; thus I’m predicting the same Emmy fate for them. That last spot is tricky – Emmy winner Geoffrey Rush is in a baity role for the miniseries Genius or Jude Law in a very showy character as well. Toss the con eitherway, I got Law in that last spot.

04

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Carrie Coon, “Fargo”
• Bryce Dallas Howard, “Black Mirror: Nosedive”
• Nicole Kidman, “Big Little Lies”
• Jessica Lange, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
• Susan Sarandon, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
• Reese Witherspoon, “Big Little Lies”

Seventh nominee: Felicity Huffman, “American Crime”

Four spots are already locked in this one. There’s 3x winner Jessica Lange for her portrayal of Joan Crawford in Feud plus the Big Little Lies twosome of Nicole Kidman and Reese Witherspoon. I see a scenario of Susan Sarandon getting snubbed just because of her off show persona, but I think she’s easily getting in. After her surprise SAG nod earlier this year, Bryce Dallas Howard seems likely to follow it up with an Emmy nod for her wickedly outlandish performance in Black Mirror. The last spot is up for grabs between three women – there’s Oprah in her passion project, Emmy favorite Felicity Huffman who was previously nominated twice for this show, and then there’s Carrie Coon. I can see a path for Coon being Patrick Wilson-ed this year due to the subtlety of the role, but between that and her role in The Leftovers, she’ll probably get her overdue obligatory nod here instead.

05

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Hank Azaria, “The Wizard of Lies”
• Bill Camp, “The Night Of”
• Alfred Molina, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
• Alexander Skarsgaard, “Big Little Lies”
• David Thewlis, “Fargo”
• Stanley Tucci, “Feud: Bette and Joan”

Seventh nominee: Michael Stuhlbarg, “Fargo”

The two men of Feud are both veteran actors who have been previously Emmy nominated so expect to see them again this year. Hank Azaria is an Emmy favorite getting in multiple times in the past for a lot of previous projects (both successful and not). I’d like to think that Alexander Skarsgaard is getting in, as carried by the love for Big Little Lies, and he’s the show’s supporting actor who has the biggest chance of getting nominated. Bill Camp is a bit of a risk, but his is a performance I actually think will resonate and will surprise come nomination morning. I don’t think Fargo is that breakout this season to merit two nominees here and while Michael Stuhlbarg is the more predicted name, I think David Thewlis is the one getting in, reminiscent of last year when Ted Danson seems the likely nominee only to be upset by co-star Bokeem Woodbine.

06

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Roanoke”
• Judy Davis, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
• Laura Dern, “Big Little Lies”
• Regina King, “American Crime”
• Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Roanoke”
• Shailene Woodley, “Big Little Lies”

Seventh nominee: Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Wizard of Lies”

This is probably the most crowded acting category we have at the Emmys for the limited series as it’s a combination of veteran names, breakthrough actresses, Oscar winners and more. So with that, let’s try to dissect them slot per slot. Let’s begin with Regina King. Sure, American Crime has been canceled already but it’s safe to assume that the current champ in this category for the last two years is coming back. Another familiar name is Judy Davis, also a 2x winner here for her flashy performance in Feud. I’d like to believe that both Shailene Woodley and Laura Dern of Big Little Lies are next – both had great reviews, and Dern is a past multi-Emmy nominee, and Woodley is a lead star of their show. The last two slots can be really filled with many Oscar winners – there’s Viola Davis in Custody, Catherine Zeta Jones also from Feud, and Diane Keaton in The Young Pope. It can also go to Fargo‘s Mary Elizabeth Winstead or The Night Of‘s Jeannie Berlin. I’m currently predicting Michelle Pfeiffer to be snubbed on Emmy morning, so my last two slots go to two familiar names who are mainstays here for the last few years – both from American Horror Story: Roanoke: – Sarah Paulson and Kathy Bates.

07

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Big Little Lies (Jean-Marc Vallée)
• Black Mirror, “Nosedive” (Joe Wright)
• Fargo, “The Law of Vacant Places” (Noah Hawley)
• FEUD: Bette and Joan, “And the Winner Is… (The Oscars of 1963)” (Ryan Murphy)
• The Night Of, “The Beach” (Steven Zaillan)
• The Young Pope (Paolo Sorrentino)

Seventh nominee: The Wizard of Lies (Barry Levinson)

I’m just going with really familiar names here. I think Jean-Marc Vallee, Noah hawley, and Ryan Murphy are all assured of nods already. Steven Zaillan is also a familiar enough name in The Night Of‘s only submission here. I also think the pedigree plus the flashy material will also lead Joe Wright to an Emmy nomination for Black Mirror. Paolo Sorrentino is more of an arthouse name than an Emmy household voter one, but that did not stop last year’s Susanne Bier from actually even winning.

08

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Big Little Lies (David E. Kelley)
• Black Mirror, “San Junipero” (Charlie Brooker)
• Fargo, “The Law of Vacant Places” (Noah Hawley)
• FEUD: Bette and Joan, “And the Winner Is… (The Oscars of 1963)” (Ryan Murphy)
• The Night Of “The Call of the Wild” (Richard Price & Steven Zaillian)
• Sherlock: The Lying Detective (Steven Moffat)

Seventh nominee: Gilmore Girls: A Year in the Life, “Winter” (Amy Sherman-Palladino)

Expect the same group of shows I’m predicting in Directing to get in here as well, only difference would be no The Young Pope here, with Sherlock replacing it here considering it got in for all the previous installments of the show.

It’s the comedy genre predictions tomorrow!

Discuss this with me on Twitter: @nikowl

Posted July 10, 2017 by Nicol Latayan in Awards, TV

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