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68th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 4: Drama   Leave a comment

Before Emmy nominee Anthony Anderson and Lauren Graham announce the 68th Primetime Emmy Awards nominations tomorrow, we’ll finish our four-part predictions series over here at Tit for Tat. Since we’re already done with reality and variety, TV movie and limited series, as well as comedy yesterday, we’re left with the TV dramas.

Last year, Game of Thrones swept last year, and while that’s bound to happen again, let’s see who can expect some nominations for themselves.

drama directing

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Better Call Saul, “Klick” (Vince Gilligan)
• Game of Thrones, “Battle of the Bastards” (Miguel Sapochnik)
• Game of Thrones, “The Door” (Jack Bender)
• Homeland, “The Tradition of Hospitality” (Lesli Linka Glatter)
• Horace and Pete, “Episode 10” (Louis C.K.)
• Vinyl, “Pilot” (Martin Scorsese)

Seventh nominee: Game of Thrones, “Home” (Jeremy Podeswa)

It’s a tad surprising that Game of Thrones hasn’t won yet for any of their Episode 9, but they have been nominated for it, so expect at least two nominations for the show again. Then there’s legendary director Martin Scorsese in contention again after winning for the Boardwalk Empire pilot back in 2011. Sure Vinyl is dead by now and was also canceled by HBO already, but that won’t stop them from name-checking and recognizing it here. Vince Gilligan hasn’t won for Directing for any Breaking Bad episode, maybe Better Call Saul can seal the deal for him. I also think Louis C.K. can also pull off his usual directing and writing nominations he usually does in the Comedy genre. Lastly, Homeland has been nominated thrice in its last four seasons, but with a resurgence, I expect that it will be a mainstay here the same way Boardwalk Empire was during its run.

drama writing

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• The Americans, “Persona Non Grata” (Joe Weisberg & Joel Fields)
• Better Call Saul, “Klick” (Heather Marion & Vince Gilligan)
• Game of Thrones, “Battle of the Bastards” (David Benioff & D.B. Weiss)
• Horace and Pete, “Episode 3” (Louis C.K.)
• The Leftovers, “International Assassin” (Damon Lindelof & Nick Cuse)
• Mr. Robot, “eps1.0_hellofriend.mov” (Sam Esmail)

Seventh nominee: Downton Abbey, “August 1925” (Julian Fellowes)

As we all know, the writers branch are the most experimental and least sheepy when it comes to nominations; thus nominations for shows like Battlestar Galactica, The Wire, and The Americans the previous years. Speaking of The Americans, I think they’ll get a consecutive nomination here again for this year. Another out of the box pick I trust them to do is The Leftovers‘ much-buzzed episode “International Assassin.” Both Better Call Saul and Game of Thrones are also poised to return here with nominations for their prominent episodes this season. I expect them to welcome new shows such as Mr. Robot and Horace and Pete with nominations too.

drama guest actress

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Ellen Burstyn, “House of Cards”
• Allison Janney, “Masters of Sex”
• Natasha Lyonne, “Orange is the New Black”
• Laurie Metcalfe, “Horace and Pete”
• Margo Martindale, “The Americans”
• Cicely Tyson, “How to Get Away with Murder”

Seventh nominee: Stockard Channing, “The Good Wife”

Previous winners Allison Janney and Margo Martindale are likely bound to return as long as they’re still eligible, so those are two slots taken already. Then there are those previous nominees such as Natasha Lyonne of Orange is the New Black and Cicely Tyson for How to Get Away with Murder to come back as well. As mentioned yesterday in the Comedy Guest Actress, I think Ellen Burstyn will also pick up a second Guest Actress nomination for her turn in House of Cards. This is the same actress they nominated for a 15-second appearance back in 2006 and a win for the short-lived small show Political Animals. To complete the list, expect another Emmy favorite Laurie Metcalfe to earn another nomination for her much talked about episode in Horace & Pete. The talks are even about her winning this category.

drama guest actor

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Beau Bridges, “Bloodline”
• Reg E. Cathey, “House of Cards”
• Josh Charles, “The Good Wife”
• Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife”
• Pablo Schreiber, “Orange is the New Black”
• Max von Sydow, “Game of Thrones”

Seventh nominee: David Strathairn, “The Blacklist”

As for starters, there’s current Emmy champ Reg E. Cathey who’s eligible again this year for House of Cards.  The rest is a mix of previous nominated performances and familiar faces that are usually nominated. There’s 2x nominee Josh Charles who comes back on The Good Wife‘s final episode, as well as thrice-nominated Michael J. Fox for the same show as well. Last year’s nominee Pablo Schreiber can also expect to hear his name called again for his infamous Pornstache role in Orange is the New Black. With Dame Diana Rigg moving to Supporting now, Oscar nominee Max von Sydow can be the Guest acting nominee from Game of Thrones this year. And lastly, there’s Beau Bridges, who has been a mainstay in the guest actor categories, previously for shows such as Desperate Housewives, Brothers & Sisters, The Closer and Masters of Sex to score another nomination, this time for Bloodline.

drama supp actress

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black”
• Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”
• Emilia Clarke, “Game of Thrones”
• Edie Falco, “Horace and Pete”
• Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones”
• Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”

Seventh nominee: Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”

Five of last year’s nominees are all eligible again this year, and I expect current champ Uzo Aduba to be nominated as the representative of Orange is the New Black. Christine Baranski has been nominated all previous six years of The Good Wife that it would be weird if she missed out on the last year of the show’s eligibility. I don’t see Game of Thrones slowing down for this year at least, so expect the pair of Lena Headey and Emilia Clarke to get in too. Dame Maggie Smith was surprisingly snubbed last year and was replaced by co-star Joanne Froggatt, but I expect the reverse results for them this year, especially on Downton Abbey‘s final season. As for the newbie in the group, maybe they’d welcome 4x winner Edie Falco in her first drama since The Sopranos.

drama supp actor

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Alan Alda, “Horace and Pete”
• Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul”
• Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey”
• Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
• Michael McKean, “Better Call Saul”
• Christian Slater, “Mr. Robot”

Seventh nominee: Michael Kelly, “House of Cards”

Welp, Peter Dinklage will be a mainstay in this category as long as Game of Thrones is on air, so that’s one slot for him. There’s also Jonathan Banks of Better Call Saul and Jim Carter of Downton Abbey to return as well. Joining them as newbies of the group are Alan Alda of Horace & Pete who last won nine years ago for the final season of The West Wing. There’s also Golden Globe winner Christian Slater of Mr. Robot, and while I see a scenario that they give him the obvious snub, I still think he’d get in. The last spot I think is a battle of the Michaels — House of Cards‘ Michael Kelly vs. Better Call Saul‘s Michael McKean, though I expect the latter to get in instead.

drama lead actress

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Claire Danes, “Homeland”
• Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
• Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”
• Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife”
• Keri Russell, “The Americans”
• Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

Seventh nominee: Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”

It’s a boring category this year, as we all know Viola Davis will easily score her second consecutive Emmy for the role of Annalise Keating in How to Get Away with Murder. We can also expect both Robin Wright and Claire Danes to get nominated for the respective seasons of their shows too. In a more stacked group, someone like Taraji P. Henson can be snubbed after Empire lost its buzz, but we think she can squeeze in another year for a nomination. 2x Emmy winner for this performance, Julianna Margulies can either get one last nod or just be completely forgotten, but I guess she has the clout enough to pull off. Last slot can be between three different women: there’s Michelle Dockery who will also come back after sitting out for a year, there’s Tatiana Maslany who got the surprise inclusion last year. However, I’m going out on a limb and predict that the Emmys will finally realize The Americans do exist and nominate Keri Russell.

drama lead actor

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
• Steve Buscemi, “Horace and Pete”
• Paul Giammatti, “Billions”
• Rami Malek, “Mr. Robot”
• Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
• Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”
• Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

Seventh nominee: Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”

Aside from returning nominees Kevin Spacey of House of Cards, and Bob Odenkirk of Better Call Saul, the rest can be a lineup of new names in this category. As for starters, there’s the men of Horace & Pete. While both Louis C.K. and Steve Buscemi can get in, I guess the former will get his due in the writing and directing categories while multiple acting nominee Buscemi gets in solely here. Then there’s another Emmy favorite Paul Giammatti who was just nominated for his guest stint in Inside Amy Schumer last year. While Billions has the option to go with him or Emmy winner Damian Lewis, we’re going with the more familiar name between the two. Rami Malek of Mr. Robot can be seen as too much of an outlier here, but we’re holding on the idea that the Emmys will embrace the show somehow; thus I’m including him. To round up the list, Bloodline‘s Kyle Chandler and Ray Donovan‘s Liev Schreiber can easily score another nod, same goes for Hugh Bonneville of Downton Abbey, but just like my risk in the Lead Actress, I’ll go on a limb and predict Matthew Rhys of The Americans to score a nomination too.

drama series

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES:
• Better Call Saul (AMC)
• Downton Abbey (PBS)
• Game of Thrones (HBO)
• Homeland (Showtime)
• House of Cards (Showtime)
• Mr. Robot (USA)
• Orange is the New Black (Netflix)

Eighth nominee: Horace and Pete (louisck.net)

Now this one can see a lot of movements to maybe really limited ones. Game of Thrones, Better Call Saul. Downton Abbey, House of Cards, and Homeland are sure nominations, I think. three shows are competing however for the last two slots. There’s Orange is the New Black who happened to be the subject of many of ATAS’ weird rule changes which makes you think they’re sabotaging it. That said, it has survived last year despite four nods, and the love for Season 4 can overcome the Season 3 blah-ness. Then there’s Mr. Robot, which I’m still somehow pessimistic that the Emmys will embrace. It’s a USA show, and the title might make voters think it’s about a techy show and they won’t touch it (true story). Then there’s Horace & Pete, a show made and starred by a group of Emmy winners. It has all the factors of a shoo-in nomination really, but the question is, with aggressive campaigning and all, will voters really acknowledge such? Any of the three missing is a feasible scenario, and since there are only two slots, I’ll go crazy and predict a Horace & Pete snub even if it gets multiple acting nominations.

There you have it! Watch out for the Primetime Emmy announcement nomination tomorrow night, July 14 (Manila time).

68th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 3: Comedy   Leave a comment

After the reality and variety, plus TV movie and limited series, we continue our 2016 Emmy prediction series with the hilarious shows and performances from our comedy shows. Last year, Veep dominated winning Series, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Writing. Will they pull off the same feat again this year? Can Jim Parsons come back in the race? And will they finally give up on Modern Family?

comedy directing

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• black-ish, “Any Given Saturday” (Gail Mancuso)
• Master of None, “Parents” (Aziz Ansari)
• Silicon Valley, “Founder Friendly” (Mike Judge)
• Transparent, “Man on the Land” (Jill Solloway)
• Veep, “Kissing Your Sister” (David Mandel)
• Veep, “Mother” (Dale Stern)

Seventh nominee: Silicon Valley, “Daily Active Users” (Alec Berg)

Let’s begin by me saying that I think black-ish would have a huge Emmy breakout this season. I mean, sure maybe Anthony Anderson’s surprise nod last year was maybe due to a tie, but whatever. The improved quality of the second season had the critics pushing for it. It’s also somehow of a statement show, and it says a lot that Emmy winner Gail Mancuso decided to submit for this show instead of 4x winner Modern Family here. I’ll also probably predict a lot of Master of None here, and maybe Aziz Ansari follows Lena Dunham and Louis C.K. to pick up nods for their directing and writing efforts too. Silicon Valley, Transparent, and Veep are mainstays here and it’s just a matter of choosing which show will pick up multiple nominations. Thus, bet on current Emmy champ Veep to be it.

comedy writing

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• black-ish, “Hope” (Kenya Barris)
• Lady Dynamite, “Pilot” (Pam Brady & Mitch Hurwitz)
• Master of None, “Parents” (Aziz Ansari & Alan Yang)
• Silicon Valley, “The Uptick” (Alec Berg)
• Transparent, “Man on the Land” (Ali Liebegott)
• Veep, “Mother” (Alex Gregory & Peter Huyck)

Seventh nominee: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, “Kimmy Finds Her Mom!” (Tina Fey & Sam Means)

It’s unfortunate that Lady Dynamite didn’t have an explosion in terms of reception, but it’s the writers we’re talking about here, and they’re more reactive to quality as compared to the other branches; thus, a pilot written by multiple Emmy winner Mitch Hurwitz does stand a chance to get nominated. After that, we have the same five shows I’m predicting for Directing, though if there’s a spoiler here, maybe Tina Fey gets back in the race, her first since 30 Rock.

comedy guest actor

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Fred Armisen, “Saturday Night Live
• Larry David, “Saturday Night Live”
• Peter MacNicol, “Veep”
• Tracy Morgan, “Saturday Night Live”
• Martin Mull, “Veep”
• Bradley Whitford, “Transparent”

Seventh nominee: Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory”

Three SNL men have competed here in the past, so it’s not as if it’s something new. After all, they’re working on three entirely different narratives. Fred Armisen is a past SNL member, and we all know how much they love to nominate those previous members even in the past years alone (there’s Tina and Amy and Jimmy (winning twice) and Kirsten and Maya and Bill)! Tracy Morgan has a comeback narrative. I mean have you seen the reception to him when he presented at the Emmys last year? They LOVE him! As for Larry David, this is his first bid at an acting Emmy and him playing Bernie Sanders will help him further. Last year’s winner Bradley Whitford is back at it again, so you can pencil a nomination for him again. Then for the last two spots, I went with two Veep men: Martin Mull who played Bob Bradley, and previous Emmy nominee Peter MacNicol who I’d say is the non-SNL actor frontrunner in here.

comedy guest actress

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Christine Baranski, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Ellen Burstyn, “Mom”
• Claire Danes, ”Master of None”
• Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, “Saturday Night Live”
• Anjelica Huston, “Transparent”
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”

Seventh nominee: Lisa Kudrow, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”

I have mixed reactions with Tina Fey and Amy Poehler competing as one especially since this is likely Amy Poehler’s first actual legit bid at an Emmy. But hey, if that’s what it’ll take for her to finally win, then let’s go for it. Joining her is Melissa McCarthy who got nominated for all the times she hosted SNL too, Christine Baranski who’s also a multi-guest nominee for this role. Then there’s Ellen Burstyn who’ll Allison Janney her way to both Guest Comedy and Drama nominations. Oscar winner Anjelica Huston had a much-buzzed stint on Transparent, so I think she’ll be in. Last spot is up for grabs, we have lots of contenders from Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, that maybe we can get in a second Guest nod for a solo Tina Fey, or the much-buzzed Lisa Kudrow, but I’ll go on a limb and say that Claire Danes gets in for Master of None. It has that Louie guest stint vibes for me, though that show is infallible as well (Sarah fuckin Baker, everyone).

comedy supp actor

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
• Adam Driver, “Girls”
• Laurence Fishburne, “black-ish”
• Tony Hale, “Veep”
• Hugh Laurie, “Veep”

Seventh nominee: Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine”

Tony Hale is a given at this point, especially after winning twice for that role already. Congratulations Ty Burrell, you’re the last man standing from Modern Family, and I think he’s here to stay for the next few years. It would be such an Emmy thing to do to finally stop nominating Adam Driver since he finally made it big as a movie star, but if he can survive last year’s almost Girls shut-out, then maybe he can still squeeze in a nod or two. Tituss Burgess also seems like a possible consecutive nod. His is a role that this category loves if we’re to base it on the history of this. Andre Braugher can easily score another nod, but I think voters are already over Brooklyn Nine Nine by now, and while it is Andre Braugher we’re talking about, there’s a lot of other veterans they can nominate here… which leads me to Laurence Fishburne in black-ish. It’s a tad surprising that even after so many years, Hale has been the only Veep supporting actor nominated but maybe winning Series last year can finally score them an additional acting nod. Since there’s no consensus on who the second actor might be (Tim Simons is probably what critics will push, but Gary Cole is the only other male nominated performance from this show), so go the easy route and predict the most prominent one in the group; thus it’s Hugh Laurie.

comedy supp actress

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
• Gaby Hoffmann, “Transparent”
• Allison Janney, “Mom”
• Jane Krakowski, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Judith Light, “Transparent”
• Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”

Seventh nominee: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”

It’s hilarious that all eight(!) women from last year are still eligible to be nominated again this year, but since I don’t think we’re going eight here again, I’d say Mayim Bialik and Niecy Nash are the first to go. Allison Janney is definitely back and in contention for a third straight win here, and so is Anna Chlumsky. Jane Krakowski is someone they love to nominate (however, winning is a different story), so I think she’ll be back as well. And it’s safe to say that they won’t be cutting Kate McKinnon in an election season of all years, so there’s four. The last two slots are between 2x previous Emmy champ Julie Bowen of Modern Family and the two Transparent ladies — last year’s nominee Gaby Hoffmann and Judith Light. All three make sense as nominees, but I feel Modern Family is going on a decline here, thus cutting Bowen off in the process.

comedy lead actor

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”
• Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”
• Gael Garcia Bernal, “Mozart in the Jungle”
• Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”
• William H. Macy, “Shameless”
• Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”

Seventh nominee: Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”

Let’s begin with those that will surely be back. Of course, there’s no better way to start this than with Jeffrey Tambor who’ll even probably win this again (and deservedly so). After his surprise nod last year, I think Anthony Anderson will be back too, as well as perennial Emmy favorite William H. Macy. Will Forte scooped three major surprise nods last year, so I feel like in a relatively empty category like this one, he has the industry support and clout to pull off another one.Now this is where it gets tricky — sure Louis C.K. and Matt Leblanc aren’t eligible this time around so it’s opening up a free slot (since there are seven nominees last year). I’m currently predicting Aziz Anzari, as mentioned above already, to have his Louis C.K. (or Lena Dunham or Will Forte or whatever) moment, but I won’t be surprised if he gets Ellie Kemeper-ed in the end, meaning lead star of the nominated show snubbed. For now, I’d keep him in. As for that last slot, we can have a Jim Parsons come back again (yes as much as we’re sick of him and his show now) and Don Cheadle has been nominated all seasons his show was eligible (and this is the final season so there’s that), but I’mma go risky and put in Golden Globe winner Gael Garcia Bernal here only because I think Amazon’s really, really aggressive campaigning will at least bear one good result for them.

comedy lead actress

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Lena Dunham, “Girls”
• Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
• Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”
• Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”
• Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”

Seventh nominee: Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer”

The question here basically is who are the five other women Julia Louis Dreyfus is beating for that fifth consecutive Emmy? As for starters, there’s Lily Tomlin who got in last year for Grace and Frankie without her partner Jane Fonda. Maybe both of them gets nominated this year, who knows? Then there’s Ellie Kemper who missed last year, but then again, last year is the most competitive category of the race since whenever so maybe it’s safe to say she’s in this year (or is she?) To continue my black-ish breakout year narrative, there’s also Tracee Ellis Ross who’ll be the first black woman to be nominated since Phylicia Rashad exactly 30 years ago (talk about narrative)! With a clear resurgence in quality, I think Lena Dunham will also be back after a year of absence. This can be a way to reward her and her season since Girls feels like an afterthought already. Now I’m definitely crazy for excluding Amy Schumer out. Sure, she doesn’t have a breakthrough big year like last year because not all years can be like that, but the lukewarm reception of this Inside Amy Schumer season feels like it’s ripe for a possible miss. Think of the other one time-nominated performances here (Teri Hatcher and Marcia Cross in Desperate Housewives, Zooey Deschanel in New Girl, Laura Linney in The Big C, Sarah Silverman in The Sarah Silverman Program, Lea Michele in Glee, Taylor Schilling in Orange is the New Black) — all those in really huge breakout seasons that they snubbed after. After all, I think she can get her due in the Variety Sketch category. Now this is where it gets crazier — I’m removing Amy Schumer for a CW actress. The Emmys are so allergic of CW they don’t even nominate their guest actresses (not even when they’re as legendary as Rita Moreno). But I think that sooner or later they’ll cave in. This year, they have two in contention: Globe winner this year Rachel Bloom for Crazy Ex-girlfriend and Globe winner last year Gina Rodriguez for Jane the Virgin. Now I don’t think both are getting in, and while Bloom is the more current one, I’d say the Emmys will be y’know.. like the Emmys and be a year late in acknowledging Gina Rodriguez just like when they nominated Tatiana Maslany when no one’s predicting her anymore.

comedy series

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:
• black-ish (ABC)
• Master of None (Netflix)
• Modern Family (ABC)
• Silicon Valley (HBO)
• Transparent (Amazon)
• Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
• Veep (HBO)

Eighth nominee: Mozart in the Jungle (Amazon)

As for the Series categories, we have two slots freed up this year because of Louie having no season this year and Parks and Recreation‘s departure. While people are toying around with the idea of Modern Family missing already, I’m not sure that will happen yet for this year, at least. They probably have one or two years in them before they get dropped off. Meanwhile all the other four nominees are guaranteed to be back as well – current winner Veep, Transparent, Silicon Valley, and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Considering that Netflix is really great when it comes to campaigning their own shows, I’d say Master of None gets in in a category with seven spots. And lastly, I began my mention of it and end with it too –Black-ish seems like its poised for an Emmy breakout. Not only will it be the remaining network representative (especially since Modern Family is on its way out), but it’s about family too, so expect it to be there.

Tomorrow, to complete the list, the cream of the crop among the television dramas!

Talk to me about this one on Twitter: @nikowl

68th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 2: TV Movie and Limited Series   Leave a comment

Before Anthony Anderson and Lauren Graham announce the 68th Primetime Emmy Awards nominees on July 14, here’s a preview on who can get nominated come Thursday. Yesterday, we tackled the Reality and Variety Series, this time the focus is on the TV Movies and the Limited Series. The past few years saw the rise in the limited series genre, now even eclipsing the acclaim of the current dramas on the boob tube. This year, we can have a rehash of the 2013 race when it’s Ryan Murphy vs. Fargo. Here are my predictions in all eight longform series categories.

tv movie

OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE:
• All the Way (HBO)
• Confirmation (HBO)
• The Dresser (Starz)
• Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (BBC)
• A Very Murray Christmas (Netflix)

Sixth nominee: Luther (BBC America)

While the Jay Roach political drama has this Emmy wrapped up already, let’s discuss which ones will join it as co-nominees. As for starters, there’s the other HBO political film Confirmation, which is basically the runner-up HBO TV movie of the year. We always have those (Hemingway & Gellhorn to Game Change, Taking Chance to Grey GardensYou Don’t Know Jack to Temple Grandin.. you get the point). After its surprise win haul back in 2013 taking home three major Emmys, they’ll surely nominate the new Sherlock special too. Expect the Emmys to fall in love with The Dresser, albeit it being on Starz; after all, it stars two acting veterans, an Oscar-winning material, and it’s British. As for that last spot, considering how much Netflix is great at campaigning, I’m going with that A Very Murray Christmas from Emmy winner Bill Murray.

miniseries

OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES:
• American Crime (ABC)
• Fargo (FX)
• The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
• The Night Manager (AMC)
• Roots (History Channel)

Sixth nominee: Show Me A Hero (HBO)

As mentioned, the big story here is The People v. O.J. Simpson, which I expect to dominate the nominations. It was critically acclaimed, it had Ryan Murphy in a very prominent case in Murica, and it’s star-studded. Considering how much Ryan Murphy’s pilot seasons always go well with Emmy nods, expect this to be a shoo-in here. Not to be left behind of course is another FX gem, Fargo, whose first season won the Emmy of this category too. It premiering last year and being more subtle than the showy OJ showcase could cost it wins, but not nominations. ABC’s American Crime (not to be confused with American Crime Story — we saw what you did there, Ryan Murphy) is also poised to come back. After all, it’s ABC’s only push here and had a decent showing with the nods last year. Roots is one of the most iconic and memorable shows in TV history and is still an Emmy record holder, so expect the new version to at least be acknowledged with a nom. That last spot is tricky — there’s HBO’s Show Me A Hero which feels like an afterthought at this stage, but it’s HBO’s only shot here plus it stars one of Hollywood’s current it boys Oscar Isaac. But there’s also AMC’s The Night Manager which they are campaigning aggressively, stars Tom Hiddleston and multiple Emmy nominee Hugh Laurie. I can see it both go ways, but for now let’s stick with the latter.

longform lead actor

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Bryan Cranston, “All the Way”
• Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
• Cuba Gooding Jr., “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Ian McKellen, “The Dresser”
• Courtney B. Vance, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Patrick Wilson, “Fargo”

Seventh nominee: Oscar Isaac, “Show Me A Hero”

Talk about an insanely competitive category. You literally can fill this group with at least a dozen names. To be frank, I think only Bryan Cranston is a lock here. His LBJ performance which previously netted him a Tony will likely join an Emmy as well (will Oscar follow?). To a certain extent, I think Courtney B. Vance is also safe considering he’s the breakout performer among the lads in the show. Benedict Cumberbatch pulled off an upset in an equally strong category back in 2013 (against Mark Ruffalo, Idris Elba, and Fargo guys) so it’s not impossible for him to pull one off again this time. Then this is where it gets tricky. Patrick Wilson is probably my fourth, though the passive, subtle role can somehow hurt him especially in an insane category like this one. That said, I’m sticking with him. I also think they won’t let the opportunity of nominating any of The Dresser actors pass by. It’s tough between Oscar winner Anthony Hopkins and Sir Ian McKellen, so you can just go eitherway (maybe even both get in?), and for now I went with McKellen. Cuba Gooding Jr. just feels like he’ll be a part of the OJ lovefest, and considering he’s playing the titular character, I’d go predict him as well. Watch out for Oscar Isaac though considering how much he’s an in-demand actor now. Other notable names to consider are The Night Manager‘s Tom Hiddleston, Bill Murray in A Very Murray Christmas, Idris Elba in Luther, and even Sir Ben Kingsley in Tut.

longform lead actress

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Kirsten Dunst, “Fargo”
• Felicity Huffman, “American Crime”
• Rachel McAdams, “True Detective”
• Audra McDonald, “Lady Day at Emersons Bar and Grill”
• Sarah Paulson, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Kerry Washington, “Confirmation”

Seventh nominee: Blythe Danner, “Madoff”

Unlike its male counterpart, the Lead Actress category is wider than usual. Of course, one expects that Confirmation‘s Kerry Washington, Fargo‘s Kristen Dunst, and People v. OJ Simpson‘s Sarah Paulson are all but sure now. After that, there’s Emmy winner Audra McDonald for her HBO special too. We can also see two American Crime actresses in this category, but it’s safer to go with Emmy  winner Felicity Huffman. As for that last spot, there’s her co-star Lili Taylor, and Emmy favorite Blythe Danner in Madoff, but let’s go daring a bit and predict that her Oscar luck would extend here so I say Rachel McAdams for True Detective. longform supp actor

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Sterling K. Brown, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Ted Danson, “Fargo”
• Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
• Hugh Laurie, “The Night Manager”
• David Schwimmer, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Bokeem Woodbine, “Fargo”

Seventh nominee: John Travolta, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”

What it it with male acting categories that they are really jampacked this year? The Supporting one is full of potential categories, and there’s a chance that it can go The Normal Heart way with four bids in it. That said, I’ll go predictable and include only two: Sterling K. Brown, and David Schwimmer’s TV comeback. That said, if they go star heavy, there’s John Travolta and Nathan Lane, both of whom can benefit from name-checking from voters. Martin Freeman won this category too back in 2013 against The Normal Heart group, so unless the lukewarm reviews for The Abominable Bride catches on, then he’s safe here. Ted Danson is a TV veteran, but he’s no easy bid as well, though being the veteran among Fargo supporting actors might help him. I might also be personally bias here with my prediction of Bokeem Woodbine, also from Fargo, but they nominated Alison Tolman two years ago, so there’s a precedent. Lastly, if The Night Manager is indeed a successful campaign, still Emmyless Hugh Laurie can sneak in a nomination for this as well. That said there’s also Forest Whitaker for Roots, Frank Langella for All the Way, and Denis O’Hare of AHS: Hotel to consider.

longform supp actress

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Hotel”
• Connie Britton, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Regina King, “American Crime”
• Melissa Leo, “All the Way”
• Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Hotel”
• Jean Smart, “Fargo”

Seventh nominee: Olivia Colman, “The Night Manager”

I might be underestimating American Horror Story: Hotel this year, but not in this category. I’ve dismissed it in previous years only for it to come back stronger, though Jessica Lange’s absence really hurt it. That said, double nods for Kathy Bates and Sarah Paulson are still safe bets. Speaking of safe bets, Emmy veteran Jean Smart’s cold, conniving matriarch in Fargo might even be competitive for the win. Meanwhile, a lesser known actress would definitely not be in contention considering the small of the role, but it’s Oscar and Emmy winner Melissa Leo in a supportive wife role in All the Way so it’s safe to say she’s getting in. Lastly, to continue my narrative of strong OJ Simpson love, I’m predicting that the scene-chewing performance of Connie Britton will give her another nod (I mean she got in for Nashville).

longform directing

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• All the Way (Jay Roach)
• Fargo, “Loplop” (Keith Gordon)
• The Night Manager (Susanne Bier)
• The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “From The Ashes of Tragedy” (Ryan Murphy)
• The People V. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “The Race Card” (John Singleton)
• Roots, “Night Four” (Bruce Beresford)

Seventh nominee: Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (Douglas MacKinnon)

I went safe with my predictions here — only two OJ episodes, one by Ryan Murphy and one by John Singleton, then Jay Roach will surely get in as well. There’s a Fargo episode in between, from the same one who pulled off the upset win back in the first season, and then there’s Oscar winner Susanne Bier in a well-campaigned British program. Last one is between a Sherlock episode and a Roots finale from a popular 80s movie director, and since I think Sherlock won’t go as perfectly lucky as the last time, I give the edge to Roots.

longform writing

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• All the Way (Robert Schenkkan)
• American Crime, “Episode Seven” (John Ridley)
• Fargo, “Palindrome” (Noah Hawley)
• The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “From The Ashes of Tragedy” (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
• The People V. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia” (D.V. DeVincentis)
• Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (Steven Moffat & Mark Gatiss)

Seventh nominee: The Night Manager (David Farr)

Like in Directing, went safe here by including only two OJ Simpson episodes, All the Way, and a Fargo one too. But instead of The Night Manager, I replaced it with another British series — Sherlock considering it won this category the last time it contended. And instead of Roots,  we have Oscar winner John Ridley’s penned American Crime episode to round up the group.

Next up, the LOL shows of the comedy categories as we continue our 68th Emmy nomination prediction series tomorrow.

Talk to me about it on Twitter: @nikowl

 

68th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 1: Reality and Variety   Leave a comment

Five days from now, Anthony Anderson and Lauren Graham will announce the nominees for the 68th Primetime Emmy Awards, rewarding the best in television for the previous television season. In this special four-parter, I’ll be sharing my thoughts on which shows and performances are destined for Emmy gold this year. First up, the reality and variety series and specials.

reality competition

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION SERIES:
• The Amazing Race (CBS)
• Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
• Project Runway (Lifetime)
• So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)
• Top Chef (Bravo)
• The Voice (NBC)

Seventh nominee: Survivor (NBC)

Despite the surge in popularity of other reality shows like RuPaul’s Drag Race or the previously nominated Survivor, voters in this category are probably the laziest as this is the lineup we had for the last three years. Thus, even if there are other shows that were well-received, we’re stuck with this lineup, and that’s why I’m predicting the same six. Watch out though for a comeback of some sort, either Survivor‘s resurgence finally catches on the Academy or the farewell season of American Idol, to join the race again.

reality competition host

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION HOST:
• Tom Bergeron, “Dancing with the Stars”
• Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance”
• Steve Harvey, “Celebrity Family Feud”
• Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn, “Project Runway”
• Jane Lynch, “Hollywood Game Night”

Sixth nominee: Ryan Seacrest, “American Idol”

Anthony Bourdain is ineligible this time around for The Taste, so that frees up a slot here, and the possibilities are endless. For now, I’m retaining three of the previous winners here – Bergeron, Klum and Gunn, and current champ Lynch – to join perennial nominee Cat Deeley. As for the newbie, I’m betting on Steve Harvey to pick up a nod, especially after his infamous Miss Universe stint in here. If not, then Ryan Seacrest probably comes back for Idol‘s series finale, or maybe RuPaul finally gets a breakthrough.

special class program

OUTSTANDING SPECIAL CLASS PROGRAM
• Grease: Live (Fox)
• Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill (HBO)
• The Oscars (ABC)
• Super Bowl 50 Halftime Show (CBS)
• 69th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)
• The Wiz Live (NBC)

Seventh nominee: Grammys 2016 (CBS)

For the first time, they’ve created a specific Special Class Program that separates specials to awards ceremonies and other live events. For this one, the focus is on theatrical specials and the current trend of doing live musicals on network shows will automatically give Grease Live and The Wiz Live nominations. Among awards ceremonies, however, the Oscars and the Tonys are the one that regularly gets nominated so expect them in here as well. HBO’s Lady Day special is a good bet as well, and since it’s still up in the air if we’ll get five or six nominees here, I’m including the Pepsi Halftime Show of the SuperBowl 50 which had the Coldplay, Bruno Mars, and Beyonce performance.

variety special

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL
• Adele Live in New York City (NBC)
• Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo (HBO)
• Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
• Lemonade (HBO)
• Must See TV: A Tribute to James Burrows (NBC)

Sixth nominee: Sinatra 100: An All-Star Grammy Concert (CBS)

Speaking of Beyonce, the first of the Adele vs. Beyonce face-offs yet to come for the rest of the year will surprisingly start at the Emmys. Adele’s special NBC New York special is the frontrunner here, but Beyonce’s online smash premiere of Lemonade on HBO is a certain to receive a nod too. In between, there’s Amy Schumer’s Live at the Apollo special, multiple time winner Kennedy Center Honors, and as for the last spot, I’m going with the James Burrows special only because I think Burrows is a prominent and legendary TV figure that has worked on a lot of previous Emmy winning series.

variety talk

OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK PROGRAM
• The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
• Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
• Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
• The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS)
• The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
• The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Seventh nominee: Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

It’s a different category now without the usual shows (as the three from last year – the two Jimmys and John Oliver are coming back), especially from last year. With the exit of David Letterman and Jon Stewart, it frees up two spots here. Well, three if you include The Colbert Report, but then he’s just replacing himself with The Late Show. Trevor Noah taking over Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show is a shoo-in atoo. For that last spot, one can count on Real Time with Bill Maher to come back considering it’s a mainstay in this category except for its first absence last year. That said, I think HBO’s focus is now on Last Week Tonight already. I guess the popularity of his carpool karaoke series combined with the industrys penchant for him will give James Corden his first bid here for his CBS nightly show.

variety sketch

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH PROGRAM
• Documentary Now! (IFC)
• Drunk History (Comedy Central)
• Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
• Key & Peele (Comedy Central)
• Portlandia (IFC)
• Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Seventh nominee: Billy On The Street (truTV)

They’re extending the category to six now from last year’s five. Considering that all five nominees from last year are still eligible, then expect all five to be back. As for what’s joining them, we’re counting on IFC’s Documentary Now which has Emmy nominees Fred Armisen and Bill Hader on the forefront to get nominated too.

Tomorrow, it’s the longform categories with the TV Movie and Miniseries programs!

Talk to me about it on Twitter: @nikowl

22nd Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

Three weeks after the Golden Globes, the second of the Big 4 guilds will be announcing their winners as the Screen Actors Guild Awards happen this weekend. It’s a fairly “bad” year per se in terms of SAG acting nominees’ correlation to eventual Oscar nominees as it’s tying record of 14/20. Whether it’s because of late releases, Netflix, or their love for Helen Mirren, it’s both good and bad that the SAGs are going their own path. That said, here are the predictions in 14 different categories this year.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

film ensemble

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

PREDICTION: The Big ShortEnsembles can go two way really: big cast or well-utilized cast. The Big Short is more of the former. The names attached to it are some of the biggest and most respected in Hollywood that casting your vote for the film means an appreciation to Brad Pitt, Mark Ruffalo, Ryan Gosling, and Steve Carell. That’s too huge a ‘squad’ for them to pass on.

ALTERNATE: SpotlightThen there’s the well-utilized cast of Spotlight. Previously, this category tends to reward stronger traditional ensembles such as this one. But then again, the SAG Ensemble award has also been indirectly referred to as the “Best Picture” category at the SAGs that sometimes the stronger picture automatically wins. This year, The Big Short fills that bill.

film actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRYAN CRANSTON / Dalton Trumbo – “TRUMBO” (Bleecker Street)
JOHNNY DEPP / James “Whitey” Bulger – “BLACK MASS” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Hugh Glass – “THE REVENANT” (20th Century Fox)
MICHAEL FASSBENDER / Steve Jobs – “STEVE JOBS” (Universal Pictures)
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Einar Wegener/Lili Elbe – “THE DANISH GIRL” (Focus Features)

PREDICTION: Leonardo di Caprio, The Revenant. It’s really di Caprio’s year; thus, there’s no one stopping him. Like you have no idea how it’s not even close. After all, he hasn’t won an individual SAG (or even an Ensemble SAG) for that matter.

ALTERNATE: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo. Cranston probably comes to a distant second only because of the TV factor. His Walter White is still one of the most iconic TV characters in recent years, but even that wouldn’t be enough to topple Hurricane Leo.

film actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CATE BLANCHETT / Carol Aird – “CAROL” (The Weinstein Company)
BRIE LARSON / Ma – “ROOM” (A24)
HELEN MIRREN / Maria Altmann – “WOMAN IN GOLD” (The Weinstein Company)
SAOIRSE RONAN / Eilis – “BROOKLYN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
SARAH SILVERMAN / Laney Brooks – “I SMILE BACK” (Broad Green Pictures)

PREDICTION: Brie Larson, Room. Larson gets the advantage here considering that she has been the stronger frontrunner all along. Besides, Room, despite missing on an Ensemble nod, has two nominations as compared to her closest competitor which happens to be…

ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn. Unless tides shift, then Ronan still probably has a chance. Surprisingly enough, this is her first SAG nomination (she was snubbed for Atonement) so both her and Larson are ingenues in the race.

film supp actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
CHRISTIAN BALE / Michael Burry – “THE BIG SHORT” (Paramount Pictures)
IDRIS ELBA / Commandant – “BEASTS OF NO NATION” (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Abel Rudolph – “BRIDGE OF SPIES” (DreamWorks)
MICHAEL SHANNON / Rick Carver – “99 HOMES” (Broad Green Pictures)
JACOB TREMBLAY / Jack – “ROOM” (A24)

PREDICTION: Christian Bale, The Big Short. Without Stallone in the equation, it’s really difficult to pinpoint which direction both the SAG and the BAFTA will go to. If the same person wins both, then we have a race. If it gets divided, then Stallone wins handily. That said, I’d give this win to Christian Bale, simply for being in the strongest film here. No one has won an acting SAG without getting nominated at the Oscars which eliminates three contenders here, and Disney hasn’t effectively been active in promoting Bridge of Spies. 

ALTERNATE: Jacob Tremblay, Room. But if there’s one performance that can overcome the Oscar snub and equate it to a win, it has got to be Jacob Tremblay. This nine-year old has continuously charmed and swept off events one after the other, that Sylvester Stallone better thank him in his speech if he wins on Oscar night.

film supp actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
ROONEY MARA / Therese Belivet – “CAROL” (The Weinstein Company)
RACHEL McADAMS / Sacha Pfeiffer – “SPOTLIGHT” (Open Road Films)
HELEN MIRREN / Hedda Hopper – “TRUMBO” (Bleecker Street)
ALICIA VIKANDER / Gerda Wegener – “THE DANISH GIRL” (Focus Features)
KATE WINSLET / Joanna Hoffman – “STEVE JOBS” (Universal Pictures)

PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl. This category loves its ingenues and giving them a welcome win can even be considered a tradition. With a busy year Alicia Vikander had, plus that long suffering wife role she had, this is, as Christoph Waltz would say it, an “uber bingo!

ALTERNATE: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs. I’m a bit iffy on the idea that Kate is winning three individual movie SAGs, let alone all for supporting roles. I still think that the love for Steve Jobs is more of an HFPA thing rather than an industry momentum.

film stunt

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“EVEREST” (Universal Pictures)
“FURIOUS 7” (Universal Pictures)
“JURASSIC WORLD” (Universal Pictures)
“MAD MAX: FURY ROAD” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – ROGUE NATION” (Paramount Pictures)

PREDICTION: Mad Max: Fury Road. Predicting this is likely picking up a paper in a box, but let’s give the advantage to the most buzzed contender which is Mad Max.

ALTERNATE: Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation. Then again, this is Stunts we’re talking about, and that shot of Tom Cruise hanging off a plane was one of the most buzzed this year, so maybe it can go Mission: Impossible‘s way.

TELEVISION PROGRAMS

tv miniseries actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
IDRIS ELBA / DCI John Luther – “LUTHER” (BBC America)
BEN KINGSLEY / Grand Vizier Ay – “TUT” (Spike)
RAY LIOTTA / Lorca/Tom Mitchell – “TEXAS RISING” (History)
BILL MURRAY / Himself – “A VERY MURRAY CHRISTMAS” (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Thomas Cromwell – “WOLF HALL” (Masterpiece/PBS)

PREDICTION: Idris Elba, Luther. This could really go to anyone in the group, I’m just giving Luther the advantage because they’ve finally recognized it after so many seasons, and it can be a consolation to those not voting for Elba in Film.

ALTERNATE: Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall. Indeed one of the more buzzed performances of the previous season was from this British thespian. Somehow, both the Emmys and Globes denied him of the win though. Maybe the actors will be more receptive to it.

tv miniseries actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
NICOLE KIDMAN / Grace – “GRACE OF MONACO” (Lifetime)
QUEEN LATIFAH / Bessie Smith – “BESSIE” (HBO)
CHRISTINA RICCI / Lizzie Borden – “THE LIZZIE BORDEN CHRONICLES” (Lifetime)
SUSAN SARANDON / Gladys Mortenson – “THE SECRET LIFE OF MARILYN MONROE” (Lifetime)
KRISTEN WIIG / Delores DeWinter – “THE SPOILS BEFORE DYING” (IFC)

PREDICTION: Queen Latifah, Bessie. Latifah is a previous winner in this same category, so there’s an advantage. Plus it’s the only “prestige” vehicle in this weak lineup.

ALTERNATE: Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco. Welp they’ve boldly had the guts to nominate this, so might as well take it all the way to a win. It’s about an actor and Nicole Kidman hasn’t received and SAG yet.

tv drama actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC)
RAMI MALEK / Elliot – “MR. ROBOT” (USA Network)
BOB ODENKIRK / Jimmy McGill – “BETTER CALL SAUL” (AMC)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Jon Hamm, Mad Men. It’s surprising to think that Jon Hamm has never won an individual SAG Award yet, but as strange as that sounds, he really hasn’t yet. And since the SAGs are sentimental to farewell shows, this could be another on the list.

ALTERNATE: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot. But then, they can also go on their own way and reward the most buzzed TV breakthrough performance of the season. The show is so not SAG’s alley, so the mere fact they’ve nominated it is an indication of strong support.

tv drama actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
VIOLA DAVIS / Annalise Keating – “HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER” (ABC)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet Crawley, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (Masterpiece/PBS)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder. Where’s Taraji P. Henson by the way? Anyway, this is the same lineup from the previous year, only without Tatiana Maslany which means she was the one in sixth last year who tied to a nomination. Three of these shows have a “been there, done that” feel, so let’s just stick with actors favorite Viola Davis.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey. Or they might as well give it to the Dame instead despite her continuous snubbing of all her American awards show nominated recognition.

tv drama ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men

PREDICTION: Mad MenOne last hurrah for the ensemble they’ve rewarded twice in the past.

ALTERNATE: Game of Thrones. Or they might as well give in to the deafening buzz of this thrice nominated, but never rewarded ensemble yet.

tv comedy actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX Networks)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
JEFFREY TAMBOR / Maura Pfefferman – “TRANSPARENT” (Amazon)

PREDICTION: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent. I actually expected that they’d already nominate him last year, but it seemed like they waited for the whole season to finish first. Now he’s off to dominate this one to join his Globe and Emmy wins.

ALTERNATE: William H. Macy, Shameless. Mr. Macy is an actor’s actor and his not so surprising upset last year is a proof of that.

tv comedy actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
ELLIE KEMPER / Kimmy Schmidt – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. After losing last year, the win is probably back in White House with JLD winning a second one for this role.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black. But this category also loves its supporting players, so they can just give Uzo Aduba a consecutive win here.

tv comedy ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Key & Peele
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Transparent
Veep

PREDICTION: Veep. This one can really go to any of the ensembles except The Big Bang Theory and Key & Peele. But with their Emmy win and increasing guild support, then I’d give the slight edge.

ALTERNATE: Orange is the New Black. At this point, Orange is the New Black felt like a passe already, but never underestimate this current champ composed of 40 member-ensemble to pull off a repeat win.

You can talk to me about this on Twitter: @nikowl

73rd Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

The Golden Globes weekend has officially started! In two days, the first televised awards ceremony of the season begins with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) announces their winners of the 73rd Golden Globe Awards in a night filled with chocolates, booze, and stars. This year, Denzel Washington is the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille distinction, as Ricky Gervais comes back as the host after three years. With Tom Hanks to Mel Gibson, and Channing Tatum to Eva Longoria expected to attend, let’s predict who will end up heading to the Globes stage to give their awards speeches on Sunday (Monday here in the Philippines) in all 25 categories.

FILM:

film drama picture

Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Carol”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Revenant”
“Room”
“Spotlight”

PREDICTION: Spolight. Despite showing some weakness, this still remains as the strongest contenders among the dramatic nominees here. It will still win this category pretty easily, and there’s a chance it can only end up winning this one ala 12 Years a Slave two years ago.

ALTERNATE: Mad Max: Fury Road. This can basically be any of the films here. Carol, albeit leading the nominations is a weak contender here and can even be emptyhanded. It can also be The Revenant after snubbing eventual Oscar winner Alejandro Inarritu last year. But Mad Max is that populist and critical choice that the Golden Globes are known for.

film drama actor

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Bryan Cranston (“Trumbo”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)
Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”)
Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”)
Will Smith (“Concussion”)

PREDICTION: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”). Unlike the Oscars, the Globes haven’t been cruel to Leo winning twice in the past already. That said, being the Oscar frontrunner helps him win his third Globe come Sunday.

ALTERNATE: Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”). Fassbender is a Golden Globe winner waiting to happen, and he’s now on his third nomination in five years. In a Leo-less field, he’s probably sweeping now.

film drama actress

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Cate Blanchett (“Carol”)
Brie Larson (“Room”)
Rooney Mara (“Carol”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”)
Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)

PREDICTION: Brie Larson (“Room”). Room overperformed with nominations at the Globes this year, which makes me think that Larson got this one.

ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”). Watch out for Saoirse Ronan though who’s every inch in this race and can still steal the momentum from Larson.

film comedy

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
“The Big Short”
“Joy”
“The Martian”
“Spy”
“Trainwreck”

PREDICTION: “The Big Short”. With The Big Short only getting stronger as each day passes, it can start its Best Picture road by winning this category on Sunday.

ALTERNATE: “The Martian”. The Globes has been into some hot water after placing this film in the Comedy genre, so I think it will somehow affect its chances here if it ends up winning. As a reminder, the film’s comedy placement won only by a single vote so there’s that.

film comedy actor

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale (“The Big Short”)
Steve Carell (“The Big Short”)
Matt Damon (“The Martian”)
Al Pacino (“Danny Collins”)
Mark Ruffalo (“Infinitely Polar Bear”)

PREDICTION: Matt Damon (“The Martian”). Considering that Matt Damon hasn’t won a Golden Globe yet for acting, this makes sense as a place to reward The Martian especially if it ain’t winning Best Picture.

ALTERNATE: Steve Carell (“The Big Short”). While there’s still a path for Carell to win, the fact that they placed Christian Bale here will siphon some votes among The Big Short fans here.

film comedy actress

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”)
Melissa McCarthy (“Spy”)
Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck”)
Maggie Smith (“The Lady in the Van”)
Lily Tomlin (“Grandma”)

PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”). This category feels like the dire one last year, and Lawrence is still likely the only Oscar contender here (yup, we’re still not counting on the Dame), so maybe an easy #3 for Lawgend.

ALTERNATE: Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck”). Hollywood’s it girl for 2015 is off to have an even greater 2016, and the Globes love that kind of coronation so this win is really possible.

film supp actor

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Paul Dano (“Love & Mercy”)
Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”)
Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”)
Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”)
Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”)

PREDICTION: Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”). Rylance is an unlikely Golden Globe winner, but at this stage he’s really the strongest contender so I say why not?

ALTERNATE: Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”). This type of rewarding a veteran and even a huge moviestar is such a Globes-y thing to do, so count on the HFPA starfuckers to throw him a moment.

film supp actress

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Jane Fonda (“Youth”)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”)
Helen Mirren (“Trumbo”)
Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”)
Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)

PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”). They love Alicia Vikander so much that they nominated her twice, and considering she has no chance in Drama Lead Actress, they’ll reward her here instead.

ALTERNATE: Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”). The Globes are more appreciative of Tarantino performances, and this can signal that she’s still in the race like the trajectory of Christoph Waltz in 2012.

film directing

Best Director – Motion Picture
Todd Haynes (“Carol”)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“The Revenant”)
Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”)
George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)
Ridley Scott (“The Martian”)

PREDICTION: George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”). Surprisingly enough, this is Miller’s first ever Globe nomination so this can be his lifetime award already from the HFPA.

ALTERNATE: Ridley Scott (“The Martian”). Then there’s three-time nominee Ridley Scott who also hasn’t won here yet, and while he has already directed a Globe BP winning movie, Miller has the stronger “technical directorial achievement” narrative.

film screenplay

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Emma Donoghue (“Room”)
Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (“Spotlight”)
Charles Randolph, Adam McKay (“The Big Short”)
Aaron Sorkin (“Steve Jobs”)
Quentin Tarantino (“The Hateful Eight”)

PREDICTION: Charles Randolph, Adam McKay (“The Big Short”). Never underestimate this contender. Like what I’ve said, it’s just on an upward trajectory for now. Considering the last three wins here are upsets, I’ll give this duo the edge.

ALTERNATE: Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (“Spotlight”). It’s a battle between the two Best Picture contenders, but Spotlight has the edge in terms of winning more awards in Screenplay thus far.

film animated

Best Animated Feature Film
“Anomalisa”
“The Good Dinosaur”
“Inside Out”
“The Peanuts Movie”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie”

PREDICTION: “Inside Out”. This remains the critical pick of the year, and with huge box office performance to boot. So I’d say it’s still ahead.

ALTERNATE: “Anomalisa”. This isn’t a Globes type of pick, but it has the critics behind it, and the HFPA are more welcoming to stop motion type of animation.

film foreign language film

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
“The Brand New Testament”
“The Club”
“The Fencer”
“Mustang”
“Son of Saul”

PREDICTION: “Son of Saul”. This is still the frontrunner and no film has yet appeared to challenge it for the win. It has the prestige and the studio to nab this win.

ALTERNATE: “Mustang”. Probably Mustang comes the closest to an alternate, but I still see it falling short.

film score

Best Original Score
Carter Burwell (“Carol”)
Alexandre Desplat (“The Danish Girl”)
Ennio Morricone (“The Hateful Eight”)
Daniel Pemberton (“Steve Jobs”)
Ryuichi Sakamoto Alva Noto (“The Revenant”)

PREDICTION: Ennio Morricone (“The Hateful Eight”). They won’t let a year pass by without giving Harvey a win so it’s between his two films here. I’d give the edge to Ennio as he’s a veteran in this category.

ALTERNATE: Carter Burwell (“Carol”). This can be the place to reward Carol. After all, it’s rare for the top nomination earner movie to not take home at least one prize.

film song

Best Original Song
“Love Me Like You Do” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
“One Kind of Love” from “Love & Mercy”
“See You Again” from “Furious 7”
“Simple Song No. 3” from “Youth”
“Writing’s on the Wall” from “Spectre”

PREDICTION: “One Kind of Love” from “Love & Mercy”. While this has been ineligible at the Oscars, it actually makes more sense considering that most winners here tend to get snubbed there.

ALTERNATE: “See You Again” from “Furious 7”. The pop songs are probably canceling each other out, but if there’s one who can overcome this, it’s a song about a Hollywood actor who passed away.

TELEVISION:

tv drama

Best TV Series – Drama

“Empire”
“Game of Thrones”
“Mr. Robot”
“Narcos”
“Outlander”

PREDICTION: “Mr. Robot”. With the HFPA’s love for cable shows, it’s not surprising if they went with this critically loved breakout show from USA.

ALTERNATE: “Empire”. One has to go back nine years ago in 2006 when the top TV drama series went to a network show and that was for ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy. The closest comparison to how huge that show was in recent years was the Empire mania that has happened last year .

tv drama actor

Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”)
Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot”)
Wagner Moura (“Narcos”)
Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
Liev Schreiber (“Ray Donovan”)

PREDICTION: Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot”). Nine of the last 15 years here all came from freshman shows. But considering that the Globes tend to do a package deal of awarding a show + its lead actor (Homeland and Danes, Transparent and Tambor, Brooklyn Nine Nine and Samberg, Girls and Dunham and so on and so forth), Malek makes sense as the winner here.

ALTERNATE: Wagner Moura (“Narcos”). Following that pattern above, maybe its Narcos + Moura who might end up as the winners here.

tv drama actress

Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Caitriona Balfe (“Outlander”)
Viola Davis (“How to Get Away With Murder”)
Eva Green (“Penny Dreadful”)
Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”)
Robin Wright (“House of Cards”)

PREDICTION: Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”). Just like at the Emmys, I predict that this will be a Taraji vs. Viola battle. I give the edge to Taraji P. Henson though since Cookie is the type of role that Globes are made to award.

ALTERNATE: Viola Davis (“How to Get Away With Murder”). It can easily be Viola too considering she made history with her Emmy win, but for some reason the HFPA are reluctant to reward her. She lost to Meryl in 2011 despite being the frontrunner, and when she was a shoo-in here last year, she lost to Ruth Wilson of all people. Maybe the HFPA aren’t just fans of her.

tv comedy series

Best TV Series – Comedy
“Casual”
“Mozart in the Jungle”
“Orange Is the New Black”
“Silicon Valley”
“Transparent”
“Veep”

PREDICTION: “Transparent”. The last three shows who have won multiple awards here were GleeDesperate Housewives, and Sex and the City so they’re more into dramedies here, which helps current champ Transparent to go 2/2.

ALTERNATE: “Veep”. It’s surprising to think that this is the first Series nomination of Veep, but maybe its Emmy win can help it win its Globe trophy as well.

tv comedy actor

Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy
Aziz Ansari (“Master of None”)
Gael Garcia Bernal (“Mozart in the Jungle”)
Rob Lowe (“The Grinder”)
Patrick Stewart (“Blunt Talk”)
Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”)

PREDICTION: Aziz Ansari (“Master of None”). We’re sure with besties J.Law and Schumer in the crowd, the HFPA would use the said platform to give Aziz a memorable moent when he gives his speech.

ALTERNATE: Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”). That said, it can also be an easy back to back win for Jeffrey Tambor who can just dominate the awards shows with his brave performance for this show.

tv comedy actress

Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy
Rachel Bloom (“Crazy Ex Girlfriend”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Scream Queens”)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”)
Gina Rodriguez (“Jane the Virgin”)
Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”). I guess we can consider that the HFPA aren’t just into Veep at all.Not even her one-two punch of film and TV work two years ago ended up with a Globe win despite getting four consecutive Emmy wins already. But this race is a weak one, and with the show getting nominated as well, maybe she can finally inch a win.

ALTERNATE: Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”). Jamie Lee Curtis makes sense as an alternate, but Scream Queens is too flop of a show that even HFPA won’t bite. So I guess they’d probably give it to Lily Tomlin who’s a double nominee that night!

tv longform

Best TV Movie or Limited-Series
“American Crime”
“American Horror Story: Hotel”
“Fargo”
“Flesh and Bone”
“Wolf Hall”

PREDICTION: “Fargo”. After their surprise victory last year, then a 2/2 is indeed possible knowing that it received the same, if not more, love this year.

ALTERNATE: “Wolf Hall”. But then sometimes, they just want to embrace their British love and award this equally acclaimed series which got the same nominations as Fargo.

tv longform actor

Best Actor in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Idris Elba (“Luther”)
Oscar Isaac (“Show Me a Hero”)
David Oyelowo (“Nightingale”)
Mark Rylance (“Wolf Hall”)
Patrick Wilson (“Fargo”)

PREDICTION: Oscar Isaac (“Show Me a Hero”). This is the closest that the Globes can ride on the Star Wars wave, and Isaac is a breakthrough star waiting to happen so maybe he wins here?

ALTERNATE: Patrick Wilson (“Fargo”). We know the HFPA loves Idris but he has been rewarded for this role already. Maybe Mark Rylance but I have him pegged in Film Supporting Actor already. So that leaves me with Wilson here as the alternate.

tv longform actress

Best Actress in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Kirsten Dunst (“Fargo”)
Lady Gaga (“American Horror Story: Hotel”)
Sarah Hay (“Flesh & Bone”)
Felicity Huffman (“American Crime”)
Queen Latifah (“Bessie”)

PREDICTION: Kirsten Dunst (“Fargo”). I predict that Fargo is winning an acting one alongside its Series win, and rewarding Kirsten Dunst makes more sense than Wilson in that more competitive race.

ALTERNATE: Queen Latifah (“Bessie”). Everyone’s predicting Lady Gaga just for the sheer “Globesness” of it, but I think the HFPA is serious about being taken seriously again, so I don’t think they’d go that road. Queen Latifah makes more sense as an alternate.

tv supp actor

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Limited-Series or TV Movie
Alan Cumming (“The Good Wife”)
Damian Lewis (“Wolf Hall”)
Ben Mendelsohn (“Bloodline”)
Tobias Menzies (“Outlander”)
Christian Slater (“Mr. Robot”)

PREDICTION: Tobias Menzies (“Outlander”). The surge of love for Outlander would not go home unrewarded, as I think Menzies’ very challenging dual role would end up with a Globe win for him.

ALTERNATE: Christian Slater (“Mr. Robot”). Slater makes sense as the runner-up here, as I don’t think Mr. Robot is going 3/3.

tv supp actress

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Limited-Series, or TV Movie
Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”)
Joanne Froggatt (“Downton Abbey”)
Regina King (“American Crime”)
Judith Light (“Transparent”)
Maura Tierney (“The Affair”)

PREDICTION:Regina King (“American Crime”). After that surprising Emmy win back in September, I can see the Globes following suit with a win here.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”). Aduba’s upset loss last year reminded me of when Jane Lynch lost the first time in 2010 only to win the succeeding year. Aduba can still follow suit to this.

So what are you predicting this year to win at the Globes? Happy Golden Globes weekend!

Talk to me about it by tweeting me: @nikowl

29th PMPC Star Awards for TV Predictions   Leave a comment

While it’s obvious by now that the PMPC Star Awards for Television isn’t really what you’d call as prestigious, it’s probably the closest award giving body there is to local TV. That’s why it’s still somehow relevant. Besides, every now and then there are still some inspired lineup and wins from this group even if it’s at the expense of mostly boring ones. That’s why year in and year out, it’s still fun to predict these things just to see which direction they decide to be in every year. Anyway, let’s see which craziness they’d do. Here are my predictions for this year:

best station

Best TV Station

  • ABS-CBN (Channel 2)
  • ABS-CBN Sports+Action (Channel 23, still listed as Studio 23)
  • AksyonTV (Channel 41)
  • CNN Philippines (Channel 9)
  • GMA (Channel 7)
  • GMA News TV (Channel 11)
  • IBC (Channel 13)
  • Net 25 (Channel 25)
  • PTV (Channel 4)
  • TV5 (Channel 5)
  • UNTV Life (Channel 37)

It still amuses me why the PMPC still bothers including all the other stations when during the previous 28 years, the award has gone to either ABS-CBN and GMA only. That said, it’s refreshing to see both CNN Philippines and ABS-CBN Sports + Action here. However, they must do up the cleaning and leave PTV, IBC,and Aksyon TV to rest. As for who’s winning it, it seems like they’re still on a Kapamilya high so I guess it’s another year where Quezon Avenue trumps over Kamuning.

PREDICTION: ABS-CBN 2
ALTERNATE: GMA7

drama series

Best Primetime Drama Series

  • Bagito (ABS-CBN)
  • Bridges of Love (ABS-CBN)
  • Forevermore (ABS-CBN)
  • Hawak Kamay (ABS-CBN)
  • Nathaniel (ABS-CBN)
  • Pari ‘Koy (GMA)
  • The Rich Man’s Daughter (GMA)

Surprisingly enough, there isn’t an overwhelming frontrunner this year. There’s no really huge ensemble show like last year’s winner Ikaw Lamang. I think Bagito and Pari Koy are fillers here and they didn’t get any other nomination outside of this one. The Rich Man’s Daughter failed to come close with GMA’s previous same sex drama My Husband’s Lover in 2013, and even that lost the race. The race is probably between Nathaniel (high rated show promoting good moral values) and Forevermore (the show that really launched the Lizquen pairing), and I give the edge to the former.

PREDICTION: Nathaniel
ALTERNATE: Forevermore

daytime drama

Best Daytime Drama Series

  • Ang Lihim ni Annasandra (GMA)
  • Flordeliza (ABS-CBN)
  • Healing Hearts (GMA)
  • Kailan Ba Tama ang Mali? (GMA)
  • Nasaan Ka Nang Kailangan Kita (ABS-CBN)
  • Oh My G! (ABS-CBN)
  • The Half Sisters (GMA)

With no Be Careful with My Heart in the running anymore, this category could go to many contenders. The Half Sisters has been one of those rare shows that passed the one-year mark especially in this current time when dramas would run nine months the longest. And it still hasn’t showed any signs of ending yet. But then there’s also FlordeLiza which received three acting nominations and is seen as the comeback of Marvin Agustin and Jolina Magdangal in ABSCBN. And despite not getting nominations for its cast(outside of Breakthrough Actor and Actress), Nasaan Ka Nang Kailangan Kita is a Ricky Lee creation and one whose prestige can go well with the voters. Actually, you could pick any from the three.

PREDICTION: Flordeliza
ALTERNATE: The Half Sisters

drama lead actor

Best Drama Actor

  • Alden Richards (Illustrado / GMA)
  • Daniel Padilla (Pangako Sa ‘Yo / ABS-CBN)
  • Eddie Garcia (Give Love on Christmas presents: The Gift Giver / ABS-CBN)
  • Gerald Anderson (Nathaniel / ABS-CBN)
  • Jericho Rosales (Bridges of Love / ABS-CBN)
  • Paulo Avelino (Bridges of Love / ABS-CBN)
  • Piolo Pascual (Hawak Kamay / ABS-CBN)

There’s no Coco Martin in the race this year, so it’s hard to pin down which direction they’d go here. It’s one Kapuso actor vs. six Kapamilyas here, but we’re talking about the biggest Kapuso actor there is. Thus, I feel like PMPC will jump on the bandwagon and reward Alden Richards the win here. It’s not as if it hasn’t happened before (Dingdong Dantes won in 2010), and he’s playing the role of the country’s national hero. You know it says something that they went all the way back to his Ilustrado project just to nominate him here, so they’d waste no time not giving him the actual win. That said, if not Richards, I think they’ll use this Coco-less field to reward either Paulo Avelino or Gerald Anderson who both are still winless here.

PREDICTION: Alden Richards, “Ilustrado
ALTERNATE: Paulo Avelino, “Bridges of Love

drama lead actress

Best Drama Actress

  • Aiko Melendez (Give Love on Christmas presents: The Gift Giver / ABS-CBN)
  • Angelica Panganiban (Pangako Sa ‘Yo / ABS-CBN)
  • Coney Reyes (Nathaniel / ABS-CBN)
  • Empress Schuck (Kailan Ba Tama ang Mali? / GMA)
  • Jodi Sta. Maria (Pangako Sa ‘Yo / ABS-CBN)
  • Jolina Magdangal (FlordeLiza / ABS-CBN)
  • Maja Salvador (Bridges of Love / ABS-CBN)
  • Shaina Magdayao (Nathaniel / ABS-CBN)

Let me begin by saying it’s really surprising that Empress Schuck ended up as the lone Kapuso representative here considering that she’s a kontrabida in an afternoon soap opera. That said, I think the on air rivalry of their characters will just translate here with the two Pangako Sa’Yo characters battling it out. Back in 2000, Eula Valdez won over Jean Garcia in this same race with the latter winning the following year. As for this one, I see Jodi Sta. Maria finally getting her overdue win especially after she failed to win one for her turn in Be Careful with My Heart. Watch out for Jolina Magdangal though considering the amount of baity materials her character had gone through in Flordeliza. 

PREDICTION: Jodi Sta. Maria, “Pangako Sa’Yo
ALTERNATE: Jolina Magdangal, “FlordeLiza

drama supp actor

Best Drama Supporting Actor

  • Baron Geisler (Nathaniel / ABS-CBN)
  • Carlo Aquino (FlordeLiza / ABS-CBN)
  • Edu Manzano (Bridges of Love / ABS-CBN)
  • JM de Guzman (Hawak Kamay / ABS-CBN)
  • Mike Tan (The Rich Man’s Daughter / GMA)
  • Ronnie Lazaro (Pangako Sa ‘Yo / ABS-CBN)
  • Tirso Cruz III (Hawak Kamay / ABS-CBN)

To be frank, I’m certain that if JM de Guzman didn’t screw up his second chance, you know he has this one locked. But then again, I guess it will go to one of their two favorite character actors: Baron Geisler for his role as the evil villain in Nathaniel, or Carlo Aquino in Flordeliza. I’m giving the edge to Geisler simply because his is a more flat out evil role here and the three performances this category has awarded are all kontrabida turns.

PREDICTION: Baron Geisler, “Nathaniel
ALTERNATE: Carlo Aquino, “FlordeLiza

drama supp actress

Best Drama Supporting Actress

  • Amy Austria-Ventura (Pangako Sa ‘Yo / ABS-CBN)
  • Carmina Villaroel (Bridges of Love / ABS-CBN)
  • Eula Valdez (Illustrado / GMA)
  • Irma Adlawan (Forevermore / ABS-CBN)
  • Jean Garcia (The Half Sisters / GMA)
  • Sheryl Cruz (Strawberry Lane / GMA)
  • Sofia Andres (Forevermore / ABS-CBN)

It’s sooooooooo PMPC to nominate Eula Valdez and Jean Garcia against each other the same year they nominated Jodi Sta. Maria and Angelica Panganiban in Lead. You know they’re trying to score that all four would attend and have that epic reunion photo. That said, I have no idea who’ll win here considering this is only the category’s third year of existence and the previous two years were back to back wins for KC Concepcion. If that’s any indication, maybe they like their younger actresses, so I guess I’ll have to go with Sofia Andres here.

PREDICTION: Sofia Andres, “Forevermore
ALTERNATE: Amy Austria-Ventura, “Pangako Sa’Yo

child performer

Best Child Performer

  • Alonzo Muhlach (Inday Bote / ABS-CBN)
  • Ashley Sarmiento (FlordeLiza / ABS-CBN)
  • Chlaui Malayao (Yagit / GMA)
  • Harvey Bautista (Wansapanataym presents: “Remote ni Eric” / ABS-CBN)
  • Jana Agoncillo (Dream Dad / ABS-CBN)
  • Marco Masa (Nathaniel / ABS-CBN)
  • Xyriel Manabat (Hawak Kamay / ABS-CBN)
  • Zaijian Jaranilla (Hawak Kamay / ABS-CBN)

I think Jana Agoncillo is considered as the breakout young child discovery of the year, and as shown by her two nominations, the PMPC is fond of her. But knowing that she has no chance to win in New Female TV Personality, this might be where they reward her. Watch out for Marco Masa considering that the only winners here are two performances headlining their own show (Andrea Brillantes’ AnnaLiza and Raikko Mateo in Honesto.)

PREDICTION: Jana Agoncillo, “Dream Dad
ALTERNATE: Marco Masa, “Nathaniel

comedy series

Best Comedy Program

  • 2 1/2 Daddies (TV5)
  • Home Sweetie Home (ABS-CBN)
  • Ismol Family (GMA)
  • Luv U (ABS-CBN)
  • Mac and Chiz (TV5)
  • Pepito Manaloto: Ang Tunay na Kwento (GMA)
  • Vampire Ang Daddy Ko (GMA)

The presence of the two TV5 comedies here at least provided some diversity, regardless of their actual quality. And due to lack of competition anymore in the Youth Oriented Program, 3x winner Luv U has been transferred here instead. But then, count on current winner Home Sweetie Home to bag a consecutive one. The show hasn’t been canceled anyway, and it’s still doing good in the ratings.

PREDICTION: Home Sweetie Home
ALTERNATE: Luv U

comedy actor

Best Comedy Actor

  • Clarence Delgado (Goin’ Bulilit / ABS-CBN)
  • Jayson Gainza (Banana Split Extra Scoop / ABS-CBN)
  • John Lloyd Cruz (Home Sweetie Home / ABS-CBN)
  • Michael V. (Pepito Manaloto: Ang Tunay na Kwento / GMA)
  • Ryan Agoncillo (Ismol Family / GMA)
  • Sef Cadayona (Bubble Gang / GMA)
  • Vic Sotto (Vampire Ang Daddy Ko / GMA)

With his new Asian TV Awards nomination this year for his turn in Pepito Manaloto, expect Michael V to win his fifth trophy in this category. That said, it’s not wise to dismiss current champ Sef Cadayona targeting back to back wins as the Bubble Gang representative or Jayson Gainza who has yet to win one here despite being nominated multiple times already for his work in Banana Split.

PREDICTION: Michael V., Pepito Manaloto
ALTERNATE: Sef Cadayona, “Bubble Gang

comedy actress

Best Comedy Actress

  • Angelica Panganiban (Banana Split Extra Scoop / ABS-CBN)
  • Carmi Martin (Ismol Family / GMA)
  • Manilyn Reynes (Pepito Manaloto: Ang Tunay na Kwento / GMA)
  • Mutya Orquia (Goin’ Bulilit / ABS-CBN)
  • Rufa Mae Quinto (Bubble Gang / GMA)
  • Ryzza Mae Dizon (Vampire Ang Daddy Ko / GMA)
  • Toni Gonzaga (Home Sweetie Home / ABS-CBN)

Since 2000, Rufa Mae Quinto has won this category eight times, so it’s a bit of a giveaway that as long as she’s nominated, then she’s in contention for the win. And considering the dire emptiness of this category, then this can be an easy ninth win. That said, if they decide to have both Amor and Claudia win, then they might give this one to Angelica Panganiban so that they’d both be rewarded on Star Awards night.

PREDICTION: Rufa Mae Quinto, Bubble Gang
ALTERNATE: Angelica Panganiban, “Banana Split Extra Scoop

single performance actor

Best Single Performance by An Actor

  • Alex Medina (Ipaglaban Mo! episode: “Niloko Niyo Ako” / ABS-CBN)
  • Arjo Atayde (Maalala Mo Kaya (MMK) episode: “Liham” / ABS-CBN)
  • Coco Martin (Maalaala Mo Kaya (MMK) episode: “Watawat” / ABS-CBN)
  • Edgar Allan Guzman (Maalaala Mo Kaya (MMK) episode: “Box” / ABS-CBN)
  • John Lloyd Cruz (Maalaala Mo Kaya (MMK) episode: “Hat” / ABS-CBN)
  • Matt Evans (Ipaglaban Mo! episode: “Nasa Maling Landas” / ABS-CBN)
  • Mike Tan (Magpakailanman episode: “8 Shades of Gay: The Tubato Family Story” / GMA)

It’s really a battle of two PMPC favorites in this category. On one hand, there’s Coco Martin who has won four of the last six years in Best Actor: Drama category. Chances are, when he’s nominated, you know he’s winning. Add the fact that he still hasn’t won in this category, and it’s for the most buzzed about MMK episode of the year about the SAS44 soldiers, and you know it’s a shoo-in already. But then there’s Arjo Atayde who has won one Star trophy the last three years: New Male Personality in 2012, Drama Supporting Actor in 2013, and this exact category last year. I’m actually predicting a tie, but look at Mike Tan to possibly upset since they tend to favor gender bender performances here.

PREDICTION: Coco Martin, Maalaala Mo Kaya” and Arjo Atayde, “Maalaala Mo Kaya
ALTERNATE: Mike Tan,”Magpakailanman

single performance actress

Best Single Performance by An Actress

Current winner Sunshine Cruz is in contention again so she can easily do a repeat back to back win in this category just like Gretchen Barretto in 2009 and 2010. Then it’s not safe to dismiss the Superstar Nora Aunor in the race especially since she played a comfort woman haunted by her past in Karelasyon. And then there’s Angel Locsin possibly winning seven years since her first if the voters are big fans of the two-parter SAF44 special. Right now, I’d give the edge to La Aunor winning here.

PREDICTION: Nora Aunor, Karelasyon
ALTERNATE: Sunshine Cruz, “Maalaala Mo Kaya

new actor

Best New Male TV Personality

  • Alonzo Muhlach (Inday Bote / ABS-CBN)
  • Jemuell Ventinilla (Yagit / GMA)
  • Joshua Garcia (Nasaan Ka Nang Kailangan Kita / ABS-CBN)
  • JV Cruz (Iskoolmates: May Pakialam Ka! / PTV)
  • Kurt Ong (Wansapanataym presents: “My Kung Fu Chinito / ABS-CBN)
  • Kyle Blanco (Bridges of Love / ABS-CBN)
  • Sancho Vito (Let the Love Begin / GMA)

This is surprisingly a weak year for new male actors as a lot of these are really fringe contenders. But then sometimes, this is the type of an open category that gives them the freedom to choose really random contenders such as 2009 winner JR de Guzman for TV 5’s Midnight DJ. I’d say Alonzo Muhlach wins this one just for being the easiest choice here. Incidentally enough, it was also in 2009 when a child star last won here (Zaijan Jaranilla for May Bukas Pa) which tied him with previously mentioned JR de Guzman. Maybe this year Alonzo ties with a random contender too. Who’s your bet?

PREDICTION: Alonzo Muhlach, Inday Bote
ALTERNATE: Joshua Garcia, “Nasaan Ka Nang Kailangan Kita

new actress

Best New Female TV Personality

  • Ali Forbes (Pinay Beauty Queen Academy / GMA News TV)
  • Jana Agoncilo (Dream Dad / ABS-CBN)
  • Loisa Andalio (Nasaan Ka Nang Kailangan Kita / ABS-CBN)
  • Maine “Yaya Dub” Mendoza (Eat Bulaga!/Kalyeserye / GMA)
  • Maris Racal (Maalaala Mo Kaya (MMK) episode: “Lobo” / ABS-CBN)
  • MJ Lastimosa (Maalaala Mo Kaya (MMK) episode: “Takure / ABS-CBN)
  • Stephanie Yamut (Yagit / GMA)

Two words: MAINE MENDOZA. ‘Nuff said.

But really, it’s such a strong category and a lot of these other nominees would have won in much weaker years. But it can’t be refuted that this is Maine Mendoza’s year, and there’s no one more fitting to win this one than her. She really is the female TV personality to look for this year. The only way I see the others winning this is if there’s a tie, and you know even that is unfair.

PREDICTION: Maine Mendoza, Eat Bulaga
ALTERNATE: Maris Racal, “Maalaala Mo Kaya

male tv host

Best Male TV Host

  • Billy Crawford (It’s Showtime / ABS-CBN)
  • German Moreno (Walang Tulugan with the Master Showman / GMA)
  • Luis Manzano (ASAP 20 / ABS-CBN)
  • Martin Nievera (ASAP 20 / ABS-CBN)
  • Robi Domingo (ASAP 20 / ABS-CBN)
  • Vice Ganda (It’s Showtime / ABS-CBN)
  • Wally Bayola (Eat Bulaga! / GMA)

Sure it’s not the traditional hosting per se, but Wally Bayola has been doing the equal lifting as we enjoy the daily Kalyeserye episodes. Lola Nidora has been a huge part of Pinoy pop culture especially this year that if Allan K can win this category in 2011, you know it’s Wally Bayola’s to lose.

PREDICTION: Wally Bayola, Eat Bulaga
ALTERNATE: Billy Crawford, “It’s Showtime!

female tv host

Best Female TV Host

  • Anne Curtis (It’s Showtime / ABS-CBN)
  • Julia Clarete (Eat Bulaga! / GMA)
  • Pia Guanio (Eat Bulaga! / GMA)
  • Sarah Geronimo (ASAP 20 / ABS-CBN)
  • Toni Gonzaga (ASAP 20 / ABS-CBN)
  • Vina Morales (ASAP 20 / ABS-CBN)
  • Zsa Zsa Padilla (ASAP 20 / ABS-CBN)

Toni Gonzaga has been dominating this category winning four of the last five years that you know it will just be an additional trophy to her mantle case for this year. That said, the only time she lost was to Anne Curtis two years ago, and since they’re duking out here again, maybe she’d be the one to dethrone her too.

PREDICTION: Toni Gonzaga, ASAP 20
ALTERNATE: Anne Curtis, “It’s Showtime!

As for the rest of the categories, here are my predictions:

Best Drama Mini-Series

PREDICTION: Ilustrado
ALTERNATE: Give Love on Christmas

Best Drama Anthology

PREDICTION: Magpakailanman
ALTERNATE: Karelasyon

Best Gag Show

PREDICTION: Goin Bulilit
ALTERNATE: Banana Split: Extra Scoop

Best Musical-Variety Show

PREDICTION: ASAP 20
ALTERNATE: It’s Showtime

Best Reality Show

PREDICTION: I Do
ALTERNATE: Pinay Beauty Queen Academy

Best Reality Show Host

PREDICTION: Toni Gonzaga-Soriano, Bianca Gonzalez-Intal, Enchong Dee and Robi Domingo, “Pinoy Big Brother: 737
ALTERNATE: Toni Gonzaga-Soriano, Bianca Gonzalez-Intal, John Prats and Robi Domingo, “Pinoy Big Brother: All In

Best Game Show

PREDICTION: Wowowin
ALTERNATE: Celebrity Bluff

Best Game Show Host

PREDICTION: Luis Manzano, “Kapamilya, Deal or No Deal
ALTERNATE: Willie Revillame, “Wowowin

Best Talent Search Program

PREDICTION: Talentadong Pinoy 2014
ALTERNATE: Bet ng Bayan

Best Talent Search Program Host

PREDICTION: Billy Crawford, “Your Face Sounds Familiar
ALTERNATE: Toni Gonzaga, Luis Mazano, Robi Domingo, Alex Gonzaga, “The Voice of the Philippines Season 2

Best Celebrity Talk Show

PREDICTION: Aquino and Abunda Tonight
ALTERNATE: Gandang Gabi Vice

Best Celebrity Talk Show Host

PREDICTION: Vice Ganda, “Gandang Gabi Vice
ALTERNATE: Kris Aquino, Boy Abunda, “Aquino and Abunda Tonight

Best Showbiz Oriented Talk Show

PREDICTION: The Buzz
ALTERNATE: Startalk

Best Male Showbiz Oriented Talk Show Host

PREDICTION: Ricky Lo “Startalk
ALTERNATE: Joey de Leon,”Startalk

Best Female Showbiz Oriented Talk Show Host

PREDICTION: Toni Gonzaga, “The Buzz
ALTERNATE: Kris Aquino, “The Buzz

Best Educational Program

PREDICTION: Matanglawin
ALTERNATE: Swak na Swak

Best Educational Program Host

PREDICTION: Kim Atienza, “Matanglawin
ALTERNATE: Jennlyn Mercado, “Sarap with Family

Best Documentary Program

PREDICTION: I-Witness
ALTERNATE: Reporter’s Notebook

Best Documentary Program Host

PREDICTION: Sandra Aguinaldo, Kara David, Jay Taruc, Howie Severino, “I-Witness
ALTERNATE: Jiggy Manicad, Maki Pulido, “Reporter’s Notebook

Best Documentary Special

PREDICTION: Spratlys: Mga Isla ng Kalayaan
ALTERNATE: #PUSO2019: Ang Pambihirang Love Story ng mga Pinoy sa Basketball

Best News Program

PREDICTION: State of the Nation with Jessica Soho
ALTERNATE: Bandila

Best Male Newscaster

PREDICTION: Julius Babao “Bandila
ALTERNATE: Erwin Tulfo,”Aksyon Prime

Best Female Newscaster

PREDICTION: Karen Davila, “Bandila
ALTERNATE: Jessica Soho,”State of the Nation

Best Morning Show

PREDICTION: Umagang Kay Ganda
ALTERNATE: Unang Hirit

Best Morning Show Host

PREDICTION: Umagang Kay Ganda hosts
ALTERNATE: Unang Hirit hosts

Best Magazine Show

PREDICTION: iJuander
ALTERNATE: Kapuso Mo, Jessica Soho

Best Magazine Show Host

PREDICTION: Susan Enriquez, Cesar Apolinario, “iJuander
ALTERNATE: Jessica Soho,”Kapuso Mo, Jessica Soho

Best Children Show

PREDICTION: Tropang Potchi
ALTERNATE: Homework

Best Children Show Host

PREDICTION: Sabrina Man, Miggy Jimenez, Isabel “Lenlen” Frial, Nomer Limatog, Miggs Cuaderno, and Kyle Daniel Ocampo, “Tropang Potchi
ALTERNATE: Aira Binas, Gerard Pangusan, Rissey Reyes, Alex Reyes, and Fred Lo,”Hi-5 Philippines

Best Public Affairs Program

PREDICTION: The Bottomline with Boy Abunda
ALTERNATE: Bawal ang Pasaway kay Mareng Winnie

Best Public Affairs Program Host

PREDICTION: Boy Abunda, “The Bottomline
ALTERNATE: Winnie Monsod, “Bawal ang Pasaway kay Mareng Winnie

Best Public Service Program

PREDICTION: T3: Alliance
ALTERNATE: SOCO: Scene of the Crime Operatives

Best Public Service Program Host

PREDICTION: Tulfo brothers, “T3: Alliance
ALTERNATE: Vicky Morales, “Wish Ko Lang

Best Travel Show

PREDICTION: Biyahe ni Drew
ALTERNATE: Business Flight

Best Travel Show Host

PREDICTION: Drew Arellano, “Biyahe ni Drew
ALTERNATE: Venus Raj, Cristina Decena,”Business Flight

Best Lifestyle Show

PREDICTION: KrisTV
ALTERNATE: Gandang Ricky Reyes

Best Lifestyle Show Host

PREDICTION: Kris Aquino, “KrisTV
ALTERNATE: Ricky Reyes, “Gandang Ricky Reyes