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89th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions   Leave a comment

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With months and months of speculations, all predictions will finally be decided upon as the Academy unveils its 89th Academy Awards nominations tomorrow night, Manila time. This season, just like the previous one, brought in lots of crazy moments as we progress the past few months. Frontrunners like Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, and Nate Parker’s Birth of a Nation both sizzled mid-way. Viola Davis competed in Supporting after talks of being in Lead a year before, and who knew that Mel Gibson can still do a Hollywood comeback after all these years? Anyway, here we go, I’ll share my predictions in all 24 Oscar categories.

BEST PICTURE

As you may know, Best Picture is a fluid category which can have as many as ten and as low as five nominees. We have a really strong triumvirate heading to Oscar season with Damien Chazelle’s LA-set musical La La Land, Kenneth Lonergan’s small drama Manchester by the Sea, and critically acclaimed Moonlight from Barry Jenkins. All three led the season in terms of critical acclaim and precursor performance. Consider three all set and locked in.

Next up, two films which really overperformed all season, overcoming doubts and possible barriers throughout their campaigns. The Amy Adams-starrer Arrival has managed to sweep both critics, audience, and guilds off its feet, beating possible “genre bias” against it. And despite all the behind the scene shenanigans over The Weinstein Company, Harvey Weinstein proves he still has it in him pushing Lion to a distant but comfortable fifth place spot.

And then it gets tricky. I’d say that Hell or High Water is sixth, with its whirlwind of a performance, getting remembered when it was very low-key, and getting snubbed for guilds when it started to pick up some steam. That said, I think it’s one of the few films that target the dude-bros/majority of the AMPAS membership so I think it’s safely in. next up are two POC led films whose sequel Hidden Fences has been repeated a lot this season (sadly, not in jest). Fences, directed and starred by Denzel Washington is a film adaptation of a Broadway winning play, while Hidden Figures, who defies box office expectation each week peaks at the right time during voting. While I won’t be surprised if one of these two gets snubbed (because these + Moonlight and Lion will mean half of the eight nominees are about POC and as much as Hollywood claims they are embracing, the past two years proved otherwise), I’m still sticking them both in and close my predictions at eight.

In the event that these surpass the eight, I think Mel Gibson’s sorta Hollywood comeback Hacksaw Ridge which surprisingly did well the last few weeks, can fill in the AMPAS membership quota targeted at old, white grandpas. After Clint Eastwood’s Sully sizzled, this can be their feel good movie of the year. Then there’s also Martin Scorsese’s opus Silence which was a victim of Paramount handling three strong films this season; thus coming really late to the party.

Predictions:
• Arrival
• Fences
• Hell or High Water
• Hidden Figures
• La La Land
• Lion
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

9th (but not predicted): Hacksaw Ridge
10th (but not predicted): Silence

BEST DIRECTOR

It’s really not safe to stick with the DGA five considering that the only time that happened was back in 2000. That said, the last time it also happened was a group of all first-time nominees, which also reflects this year’s batch. Well, it only becomes a problem when you consider that the biggest spoiler to this group is welp… another first timer. I think Damien Chazelle, Kenneth Lonergan, and Barry Jenkins are all safe here, while Denis Villeneuve strikes me as one who’ll finally get his welcome to the club mention. After all, his previous films have been slowly getting Oscar nominations, so it’s just a matter of time to finally get one for him. Last spot I see is between Garth Davis who pulled off that surprise DGA nod (over favorites such as Martin Scorsese, Clint Eastwood, and Mel Gibson) or David Mackenzie (whose film did not submit for the DGAs.) Toss a coin to get your answer and mine right now says Garth Davis.

Predictions:

• Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
• Damien Chazelle, La La Land
• Garth Davis, Lion
• Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
• Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

SPOILER: David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck is back nine years after receiving his first nod for The Assassination of Jesse James, but not only is he back as a nominee, moreso a frontrunner to win the Oscar this year for Manchester by the Sea. Two of his closest contenders include Denzel Washington, on his way to pick up his seventh career nod for his role in Fences and Golden Globe winner Ryan Gosling, the effortlessly charming pianist in La La Land, whose only Oscar nod was exactly a decade ago for Half Nelson. With two major films this year, more exposure can only help Andrew Garfield to finally include “Oscar nominee” before his name, but with Silence coming in too late in the game, all his previous mentions were for his role as the lead soldier in Hacksaw Ridge. The last spot can go to Joel Edgerton in Loving, or maybe a late gamechanger Jake Gyllenhaal for Nocturnal Animals, but I’d play safe and predict Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic, as he has earned Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nods for this already.

PREDICTIONS:
• Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
• Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling, La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington, Fences

SPOILER: Joel Edgerton, Loving

BEST ACTRESS

If we’re being diplomatic about it, it’s a “good” problem to not figure out the Best Actress lineup this year when it was the easiest to do so the last few years. That means great roles for women in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s have all been receiving great ink for their memorable performances. But for prediction’s sake, it’s still difficult to pin down how this category will be like. I guess we better start with Emma Stone then, as she’s probably the safest here and the likely recipient of this award come Oscar night. As much as we salivate over the possibility of a Portman snub (after those really career-best notices), it’s not gonna happen. Pencil Natalie’s turn as Jackie Kennedy another sure contender here. After that, I’m tempted to say Meryl Streep is third. This role, in another “transformative” performance is something the members of the Academy will eat up. Add the fact that her iconic Golden Globe speech came right during voting period just surely helps her more. Now this is where it gets tricky. I’d put Isabelle Huppert for Elle in fourth, and while I think it’s the pessimist in me talking, I’m still open to the idea of a possible snub. After all, it’s a movie that’s not a priority watch with an actress in her 60s carrying the film in one of the strongest years of this category. I really should comfort myself with the fact that she earned the critics trifecta, the Drama Globe upset, and SPC’s priority but I;m just preparing myself for the worst here. Then there’s Amy Adams, who’s some sort of a name-check but not in a Meryl or C/Kate level yet. This will be her sixth nod in 12 years and that ratio is good to predict her. That said, we had an extra week of voting which could help Annette Bening in the little and underseen 20th Century Women or Taraji p. Henson as the face of Hidden Figures to spoil the party, and in the event that happens, I’d say Adams is the first one good to go.

PREDICTIONS:
• Amy Adams, Arrival
• Isabelle Huppert, Elle
• Natalie Portman, Jackie
• Emma Stone, La La Land
• Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

SPOILER: Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Proving to be the category that provides the clusterfuck, Supporting Actor can either be as easy as 1-2-3 or as confusing as that Math lady meme we’ve all used by now. I feel like Moonlight‘s Mahershala Ali, Hell or High Water‘s Jeff Bridges, and Lion‘s Dev Patel are already sure locks here. Hugh Grant feels like it can go eitherway. He fits the bill of someone nabbing precursor nods only to come short in the end, but then he also fits the bill of a filler, carried over nod. But when the one who drags your nod is none other than Meryl Streep, then I guess he’s in too. Now that last spot is indeed very tricky. The obvious option is Golden Globe winner Aaron Taylor-Johnson who also picked up a BAFTA nod for his turn in Nocturnal Animals. If not him, then maybe Lucas Hedges of Manchester by the Sea. But then this is the category that has provided us Jonah Hill in Wolf of Wall Street and Tom Hardy for The Revenant, so a coattail is very much in talks here. Possible performances that fit the bill are Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals, Issei Ogata for Silence, and Ben Foster for Hell or High Water.

Predictions:
• Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
• Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
• Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
• Dev Patel, Lion
• Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

SPOILER: Ben Foster, Hell or High Water

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Probably the most “boring” of the four acting categories, this one seems like it’s set in stone. Davis, Harris, Kidman, and Williams have appeared in all precursors by far. Critics went for Lily Gladstone whose film isn’t even being campaigned. The BAFTAs went with Haley Squire of I, Daniel Blake which is the BAFTA-est pick they can go to at BAFTAs. Thus, it benefits Oscar winner Octavia Spencer who picked up GG and SAG nods for Hidden Figures. I don’t see a scenario of Greta Gerwig spoiling the race especially considering that her possible coattail Annette Bening is struggling to get hers too. Maybe Spencer’s co-star Janelle Monae is the only alternate here, as she’s helped by starring in both Hidden Figures and Moonlight. That said, Octavia is the more established name here, and a good narrative to boot as the first black actress to receive a nomination after her win.

Predictions:
• Viola Davis, Fences
• Naomie Harris, Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman, Lion
• Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

SPOILER: Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Count on the Writer’s branch to revive the lesser buzzed films in contention this year, and I think The Lobster has that slot all filled up. Thus, as much as I, Daniel Blake makes sense as an Oscar morning surprise, I’ll stick with the consensus of La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water, and Captain Fantastic in here.

Predictions:
• Captain Fantastic
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• The Lobster
• Manchester by the Sea

SPOILER: I, Daniel Blake

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Yes I’m predicting a Fences snub here which makes sense and doesn’t make sense simultaneously. First up, I think Moonlight, Lion, and Arrival are semi-locks here already. While Hidden Figures surprisingly got in a nice haul of Adapted Screenplay mentions from the BAFTAs to the WGA up to the USC Scripter and BFCAs. The last spot can easily go to Fences (which is the safe choice to be frank about it), or to Silence (which was once perceived as the frontrunner here). I went with Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals here instead because the baity adaptation can probably overcome the writers’ judgment of Ford being a writer.

Predictions:
• Arrival
• Hidden Figures
• Lion
• Moonlight
• Nocturnal Animals

SPOILER: Fences

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

I think at this stage it’s already hard to deny that Toni Erdmann is probably winning this one, so a nod is already assured for this FLF frontrunner. Denmark has a successful streak in this category this decade as well, and Land of Mine appeals to such an AMPAS demographic I think it’s getting in. Sweden’s A Man Called Ove strikes the perfect balance between comedy and drama, and is reminiscent of the other nominees in this category the past few years. Paradise is a bit of an  out of the box pick, but I guess they can’t resist another World War II film in contention from the Venice Best Director of last year. And the only reason I had The Salesman in here is because of Asghar Farhadi’s 2011 victory in this category that we’ve had some sort of reception already to his works. That said, don’t be surprise to see Xavier Dolan joining the race as this type of family melodrama and him working with a lot of Hollywood actors can certainly push him to a nom.

Predictions:
• Land of Mine (Denmark)
• A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
• Paradise (Russia)
• The Salesman (Iran)
• Toni Erdmann (Germany)

SPOILER: It’s Only the End of the World (Canada)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Still ahead of this race is Zootopia which had both the critical and audience backing to be one to beat in this race. Hot on its heels though is Kubo and the Two Strings which has overperformed a tad during this previous guilds run. I actually can see a scenario of them pitting it as the non-Zootopia vote. With it hitting both the Foreign Language Film and Best Animated Film shortlist, I expect My Life as a Zucchini to at least nab one, and since I’m not predicting it in FLF, I’ll go ahead and insert it here. Moana, which was supposed to be a last minute challenger to Zootopia just fell short in the end and while its decent box office performance and pop culture impact push me to predict it, I won’t be surprised to see it get snubbed on Oscar morning.Lastly, The Red Turtle seems more of a personal preference than a prediction here, but we’ll be needing the traditional animated representative in this category and I’m leaning to it by a hair over the hit animated film Your Name.

Predictions:
• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Moana
• My Life as a Zucchini
• The Red Turtle
• Zootopia

SPOILER: Sing

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

At the start of the season, O.J.Made in America can suffer a bit of a backlash since its a seven hour documentary feature that originated from TV. But it seems like it has the support now to not only get nominated, but even go all the way to a win. Joining it willbe the foreign documentary Fire At Sea, two films that will probably speak close to the voters due to their “cinematic” themes: Cameraperson and Life, Animated. And in the race (no pun intended) for that last spot are two documentaries that tackle about race — Raoul Peck’s I Am Not Your Negro and Ava Duvernay’s 13th. The latter seems like one who’s bound for a snub so I’m going with the former.

Predictions:
• Cameraperson
• Fire At Sea
• I Am Not Your Negro
• Life, Animated
• O.J.: Made in America

SPOILER: 13th

Now as for the rest of the technical categories…

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
• Arrival
• La La Land
• Lion
• Moonlight
• Silence

SPOILER: Nocturnal Animals

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Hail, Caesar!
• Jackie
• La La Land

SPOILER: The Dressmaker

BEST EDITING
• Arrival
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

SPOILER: Lion

BEST HAIRSTYLING & MAKE UP
• Deadpool
• A Man Called Ove
• Star Trek Beyond

SPOILER: Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
• The BFG
• Kubo and the Two Strings
• La La Land
• Lion
• Moonlight

SPOILER: Jackie

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
• “Audition” (La La Land)
• “Angel by the Wings” (The Eagle Huntress)
• “City of Stars” (La La Land)
• “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana)
• “A Minute to Breathe” (Before the Flood)

SPOILER:  “Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hail, Caesar!
• Jackie
• La La Land
• Silence

SPOILER: The Handmaiden

BEST SOUND EDITING
• Arrival
• Deepwater Horizon
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
• Sully

SPOILER: Hell or High Water

BEST SOUND MIXING
• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
• Sully

SPOILER: Silence

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
• Arrival
• Doctor Strange
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• The Jungle Book
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

SPOILER: Passengers

MULTIPLE NOMINATIONS:
13: La La Land
9: Arrival
8: Moonlight
7: Lion
6: Manchester by the Sea
4: Hell or High Water
3: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Jackie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2: Captain Fantastic, Hail Caesar!, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Nocturnal Animals, Silence, Sully

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72nd Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

It’s awards season again, and there’s no better way to kick off the craziness of each season with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s Golden Globe Awards. You literally lock the biggest movie and TV stars (former in the front, latter in the back) in one room, give them unlimited booze and chocolates, and what ensues is three hours of pure fun. This year, Jimmy Fallon takes hosting duties with nominees ranging from Ryan Gosling to Isabelle Huppert in the film categories and Nick Nolte to Mandy Moore in the TV side. Here are my predictions in all 25 categories.

FILM:

film-drama

Best Picture, Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

PREDICTION: Moonlight. The most critically acclaimed film of the year and also one of the year’s most nominated at the Globes could cement its status as an Oscar challenger this year.

ALTERNATE: Manchester by the Sea. It’s the other critically acclaimed film of the bunch and is in a three-way race for the Oscar with Moonlight and La La Land.

film-drama-actor

Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

PREDICTION: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea. This is where they can reward Manchester altogether. After all, Affleck has garnered praises after praises one after the other for this role.

ALTERNATE: Denzel Washington, Fences. He’s the only other feasible challenger to an otherwise easy route of Casey Affleck to a Globe.

film-drama-actress

Best Actress, Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

PREDICTION: Natalie Portman, Jackie. Regardless of how jackie performed in general, Portman’s raves playing the iconic Jackie Kennedy is set to give her third overall career Globe.

ALTERNATE: Isabelle Huppert, Elle. Critics have basically included this as one of their favorites this year. If the Globes are edgier this year, she’s one who can benefit from it.

film-musical-comedy

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

PREDICTION: La La Land. Probably the biggest lock of the night, this nomination topnotcher is bound to have a golden night at the Globes. Right now, I’m predicting it for five awards. Book it!

ALTERNATE: Deadpool. La La Land is such a lock already that the rest of the four will have to compete for ample votes. Don’t be surprised if this ends up as distant second.

film-mc-actor

Best Actor, Comedy
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

PREDICTION: Ryan Gosling, La La Land. Gosling, on his fifth career nomination now, still Globeless, on the best Picture frontrunner. Seems like a perfect timing for a time at the podium to me.

ALTERNATE: Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool. Sure he’s funny, but can we reward his publicist instead? His 2016 is one for the books don’t be surprised if the celebrity fanatics Globes wanted a soon to be viral scenario with him.

film-mc-actress

Best Actress, Comedy
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

PREDICTION: Emma Stone, La La Land. With 20th Century fading in the background, and Streep getting her due at the Cecil B. DeMille already, consider Oscar frontrunner Emma Stone on her first televised speech this awards season.

ALTERNATE: Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins. She’s already the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille, but when it comes to Meryl Streep, nothing is impossible. She’s on her 30th nomination already, and it’s a historic night for her.

film-supp-actor

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

PREDICTION: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight. While this is the part when the televised precursors start to deviate from critical consensus, I think Ali can be the go-to place to reward Moonlight especially if it Manchester ends up winning the top Drama plum.

ALTERNATE: Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water. For some reason, Bridges ended up as the de facto runner up this season, and he’s the veteran/biggest star in this lineup, so that might play a role.

film-supp-actress

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, Fences. Despite her SAGs and Emmy and Tony and BFCAs, one award Viola still hasn’t won is the Golden Globe. She lost to Kate Winslet in 2008, to Meryl Streep in 2011, to Ruth Wilson in 2015, and to Taraji P. Henson last year. Maybe fifth time’s a charm for her…

ALTERNATE: Nicole Kidman, Lion. …unless they really don’t like her. They can resort to a previous favorite who has won three Golden Globes already for her emotional turn as the adoptive mother in Lion. Just think of how Kate Winslet suddenly emerged last year as a contender after her surprise win at the Globes.

film-directing

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

PREDICTION: Damien Chazelle, La La Land. While there are so many possible tempting picks here (hey there, Mel Gibson!), I think I’ll stay safe and predict Damien Chazelle’s flashy directing in La La Land.

ALTERNATE: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight. Or maybe they can make history with their first ever black Best Director winner. After all, Jenkins has been sweeping critics wins left and right for Moonlight.

film-screenplay

Best Screenplay
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

PREDICTION: Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals. This type of flashy screenplay is the type that usually wins this ridiculously, always competitive Golden Globe category. We can still smell the scent of possible upset here by Ford.

ALTERNATE: Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water. Well here’s another place where they can reward Hell or High Water, especially if Bridges fails to upset Ali in Supporting Actor.

foreign-language-film

Best Foreign Language Film
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

PREDICTION: Toni Erdmann. Neruda and Elle would have made more sense had they been in the Oscars shortlist because the last time the HFPA deviated from the Oscar nominated film was nine years ago when none of their five nominees made it. I’ll stay safe and predict Toni Erdmann.

ALTERNATE: The Salesman. I told you I’m going safe with the Oscar shortlisted films.

animated-film

Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia

PREDICTION: Zootopia. A blockbuster, critics’ favorite, and really one of the surprises among the animated films of the previous year, I think Zootopia takes this one rather easily, despite the strong competition it’s up against.

ALTERNATE: Kubo and the Two Strings. For some reason, there’s a low-key talk of this upsetting the race, so I guess it’s safe to consider it as an alternate.

Best Original Score
Moonlight
La La Land
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures

PREDICTION: La La LandConsider this as the fifth win for La La Land on Golden Globes night. While I don’t think Justin Hurwitz is winning both Score and Song categories, his chances here are larger than the other.

ALTERNATE: Lion. At the end of the day, the HFPA still loves Harvey no matter what. And this is the place where they can throw him a bone.

Best Original Song
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Faith,” Sing
“Gold,” Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

PREDICTION: How Far I’ll Go, Moana. It will definitely be a moment to see Lin-Manuel Miranda on the Golden Globe stage giving an important speech, and I don’t think the Globes will pass on that opportunity.

ALTERNATE: City of Stars, La La Land. If Justin Hurwitz manages to win this one too, then he could just pull off a Sally Field and do a “You like me, you really like me!” moment on stage.

TELEVISION:

tv-drama

Best TV Series, Drama
The Crown
Game of Thrones
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld

PREDICTION: The Crown. In probably the strongest lineup in this category since God knows when, all five of these nominees actually make sense as winners. But don’t ever doubt their love for anything British, royalty, and politics. Hence, I’m going with this.

ALTERNATE: Stranger Things. For cementing its place in pop culture history, resurrecting Wino’s career alive and kicking again, and introducing to the world the greatness that is Millie Bobby Brown.

tv-drama-actor

Best Actor, Drama
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Billy Bob Thornton, Goliath

PREDICTION: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot. His loss last year was an utter shock considering his co-star Christian Slater won; that said, the HFPA tends to play catch up in this category. It follows the trend of recent winners Damian Lewis and Kevin Spacey who all looked instant winners on their freshmen season only to win on their second bid.

ALTERNATE: Matthew Rhys, The Americans. Well maybe it will follow the trajectory of also winners Michael C. Hall and Bryan Cranston to whom the HFPA rewarded during the later seasons of their shows.

tv-drama-actress

Best Actress, Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Keri Russell, The Americans
Winona Ryder, Stranger Things
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

PREDICTION: Winona Ryder, Stranger Things. This is a Globe-intended moment if ever there was one. Imagine a previous Golden Globe darling whose career has been marred with scandals, only to comeback for a resurgence, and the HFPA creams with the idea that they’ll be a part of it.

ALTERNATE: Claire Foy, The Crown. While Ryder seems like a pitch-perfect Globes-y choice, it sounds too good a scenario to be true, that they’ll just go ahead with Claire Foy to walk up to the podium.

tv-comedy

Best TV Series, Comedy/Musical
Atlanta
Blackish
Mozart in the Jungle
Transparent
Veep

PREDICTION: Atlanta. The Globes are really more adventurous with their TV picks, usually rewarding the new it-show so that they’ll be ahead of the pack. I don’t think Transparent or current champ Mozart in the Jungle have what it takes to pull off a repeat, and I don’t know but they really just never got Veep. So between the two newer shows, Atlanta seems more right up their alley than family sitcom black-ish.

ALTERNATE: black-ish. Relatively new show who got two lead acting Comedy nods. The last family comedy that won is Modern Family so if there’s one network who could pull it off, it’s ABC.

tv-comedy-actor

Best Actor, Comedy
Anthony Anderson, Blackish
Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Nick Nolte, Graves
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

PREDICTION: Donald Glover, Atlanta. TV Series winners usually carries an acting win with its Series win, and he fits the fresh and hip pick the HFPA rewards here, so I’d say Donald Glover wins this.

ALTERNATE: Anthony Anderson, black-ish. Or then maybe they’d throw a bone so that black-ish won’t end up emptyhanded on Globes night. This is the perfect category to reward it then.

tv-coemdy-actress

Best Actress, Comedy
Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Sarah Jessica Parker, Divorce
Issa Rae, Insecure
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Tracee Ellis Ross, Blackish

PREDICTION: Sarah Jessica Parker, Divorce. Only three performances in Golden Globe history has won at least four times for the same show: Alan Alda in M*A*S*H*, Carol Burnett in The Carol Burnett Show, and Sarah Jessica Parker in Sex and the City.  They love her. Sure this feels more like a welcome nod, but with no strong frontrunner, I’ll go with SJP.

ALTERNATE: Issa Rae, Insecure. That said, maybe it’ll go to the other HBO female lead. Issa Rae is a revelation in Insecure, and I can see a scenario of the Globes rewarding her instead.

tv-movie-mini

Best TV Miniseries or Movie
American Crime
The Dresser
The Night Manager
The Night Of
The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

PREDICTION: The People vs. OJ Simpson. I don’t see any show challenging it for thew win tbh, regardless if a lot of these co-nominees also deserve a time or two in the spotlight.

ALTERNATE: The Night Manager. They loved it enough to shower the series with four nods. Somewhere out there, it has its fans inside the HFPA who’ll probably be pushy enough to give it a consolation win.

tv-longform-actor

Best Actor, Mini-Series or TV Movie
Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
John Turturro, The Night Of
Courtney B. Vance, The People vs. O.J. Simpson

PREDICTION: Riz Ahmed, The Night Of. Last year’s winner Oscar Isaac benefited from his Star Wars gig to end up winning a Golden Globe for his HBO miniseries. While this could really go to many different directions, I can see this being one of the night’s surprise wins.

ALTERNATE: Courtney B. Vance, The People v. OJ Simpson. While he’s comforted with the fact that this Emmy winner already took home the prize, there can be an output of love for this OJ show to give him a win here as well.

tv-longform-actress

Best Actress, Mini-Series or TV Movie
Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Riley Keough, The Girlfriend Experience
Sarah Paulson, The People vs. O.J. Simpson
Charlotte Rampling, London Spy
Kerry Washington, Confirmation

PREDICTION: Sarah Paulson, The People v. OJ Simpson. Among the four OJ acting categories, this one seems like the only sure win in the bunch. She is unstoppable.

ALTERNATE: Riley Keough, The Girlfriend Experience. Keough seems like the only possible challenger to Paulson, but even that train has left already.

tv-supp-actor

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, The People vs. O.J. Simpson
Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
John Lithgow, The Crown
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
John Travolta, The People vs. O.J. Simpson

PREDICTION: John Lithgow, The Crown. If Winona Ryder is really unstoppable in Drama Actress, then this is probably the place where they can reward The Crown. The fact that it’s John Lithgow, a previous multiple Globe winner, makes the deal more sealed.

ALTERNATE: Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager. He’s another Globe favorite, knows how to charm his way off a room, and he can be the token The Night Manager victory.

tv-supp-actress

Best Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman, The Night Manager
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Thandie Newton, Westworld

PREDICTION: Thandie Newton, Westworld. The Globes will probably spread the wealth among the new shows and with Stranger Things and The Crown already looking like they have shoo-in wins already, this is where they can reward Westworld.

ALTERNATE: Chrissy Metz, This Is Us. Sure she’s up against co-star Mandy Moore, but between the two This Is Us actress, Metz seems more like the Globes template pick for a winner here.

The Golden Globe Awards will be on January 8 (January 9 in Manila) to be shown live on Colors.

Posted January 7, 2017 by Nicol Latayan in Uncategorized

89th Oscars Predictions: October Edition   Leave a comment

With Billy Lynn falling out of the race, we’re getting closer and closer to the fun part of the season! Here are my top six categories predictions and one for Foreign Language Film too!

best-picture

best directing.png

best-actor

best-actress

best-supp-actor

best-supp-actress

best-foreign-language-film

Posted October 23, 2016 by Nicol Latayan in Uncategorized

89th Oscars Predictions: September Edition   Leave a comment

With TIFF and Venice now done, here’s how the rest of the competition is now shaping. Can Natalie Portman win a second Oscar? Is Silence even coming out this year? And will #OscarsSoWhite finally be over? (Yup it is).
 
PS: I’m already sick of the Natalie vs. Emma and Jackie vs. La La Land rivalry this early.
01-picture
La La Land is the movie to beat. It’s about the industry, it’s likely to be a huge hit, it has the critics backing it, and it’s a crowdpleaser. Think of a more popular The Artist. I’m still baffled with which Paramount vehice is happening tbh, and Harvey will fight til the end to make Lion happen.
02-directing
This seems like a tailor made win for Damien Chazelle no? He came really close for Whiplash nomination two years ago. Now he can just go all the way with this.
03-best-actor
What a weak lineup. I can see a scenario of Denzel winning #3 with this weak lineup. I’m not totally sold yet on Casey Affleck steamrolling this time around. And while he might not be campaigning, it’s so very much the Oscars that Tom Hanks gets in for Sully even after his Captain Phillips snub.
04-best-actress
Emma vs. Natalie vs. Viola is what will be the story of this season. I think Emma can go all the way with this especially if La La Land becomes stronger this season, but Natalie Portman’s raves are just absolutely astonishing it’s hard to dismiss them. Then there’s Viola, whose campaigning will surely make a statement with the Academy. I put Meryl in fourth only because I think this is the Meryl stuff the Academy loves Meryl to do. Fifth spot is tricky between Ruth to Annette tbh, and I can see anybody completing the lineup. Right now, I say it’s Negga.
05-best-supp-actor
Can you imagine if Silence moves to 2016? What happens to this category? Hopefully it paves the way for a Mahershala Ali win. Shannon is shaping to have a great year and Bridges is the type of a lazy nom role that can happen (see Robert Duvall in The Judge). Grant can be carried by Meryl if they continue to campaign together.
06-supp-actress
Michelle Williams seems the type to win critics mentions but flops at the televised awards (see Amy Ryan in 2007, Jessica Chastain in 2011 etc.) But then, maybe she’s perceived as overdue. Stewart is having the best years of her career, and she’s one who can get a welcome type of nod from AMPAS. Legend Kidman plays the favorite supporting role here: a supportive mother. Plus that wig is amde of Philomena’s leftovers. And then I put Adams here only because Focus Features knows this game. I mean they’re the same team who pulled off Vikander in Supporting for The Danish Girl just earlier this year.
07-original-screenplay
So is Moonlight original or adapted? I say original only because it doesn’t have a published material. The first four are close to safe. Last one can be the tricky part and can go to any of the weaker films.
08-adapted-screenplay
This is empty. Lol.

Posted September 25, 2016 by Nicol Latayan in Uncategorized

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22nd Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

Three weeks after the Golden Globes, the second of the Big 4 guilds will be announcing their winners as the Screen Actors Guild Awards happen this weekend. It’s a fairly “bad” year per se in terms of SAG acting nominees’ correlation to eventual Oscar nominees as it’s tying record of 14/20. Whether it’s because of late releases, Netflix, or their love for Helen Mirren, it’s both good and bad that the SAGs are going their own path. That said, here are the predictions in 14 different categories this year.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

film ensemble

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

PREDICTION: The Big ShortEnsembles can go two way really: big cast or well-utilized cast. The Big Short is more of the former. The names attached to it are some of the biggest and most respected in Hollywood that casting your vote for the film means an appreciation to Brad Pitt, Mark Ruffalo, Ryan Gosling, and Steve Carell. That’s too huge a ‘squad’ for them to pass on.

ALTERNATE: SpotlightThen there’s the well-utilized cast of Spotlight. Previously, this category tends to reward stronger traditional ensembles such as this one. But then again, the SAG Ensemble award has also been indirectly referred to as the “Best Picture” category at the SAGs that sometimes the stronger picture automatically wins. This year, The Big Short fills that bill.

film actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRYAN CRANSTON / Dalton Trumbo – “TRUMBO” (Bleecker Street)
JOHNNY DEPP / James “Whitey” Bulger – “BLACK MASS” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Hugh Glass – “THE REVENANT” (20th Century Fox)
MICHAEL FASSBENDER / Steve Jobs – “STEVE JOBS” (Universal Pictures)
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Einar Wegener/Lili Elbe – “THE DANISH GIRL” (Focus Features)

PREDICTION: Leonardo di Caprio, The Revenant. It’s really di Caprio’s year; thus, there’s no one stopping him. Like you have no idea how it’s not even close. After all, he hasn’t won an individual SAG (or even an Ensemble SAG) for that matter.

ALTERNATE: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo. Cranston probably comes to a distant second only because of the TV factor. His Walter White is still one of the most iconic TV characters in recent years, but even that wouldn’t be enough to topple Hurricane Leo.

film actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CATE BLANCHETT / Carol Aird – “CAROL” (The Weinstein Company)
BRIE LARSON / Ma – “ROOM” (A24)
HELEN MIRREN / Maria Altmann – “WOMAN IN GOLD” (The Weinstein Company)
SAOIRSE RONAN / Eilis – “BROOKLYN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
SARAH SILVERMAN / Laney Brooks – “I SMILE BACK” (Broad Green Pictures)

PREDICTION: Brie Larson, Room. Larson gets the advantage here considering that she has been the stronger frontrunner all along. Besides, Room, despite missing on an Ensemble nod, has two nominations as compared to her closest competitor which happens to be…

ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn. Unless tides shift, then Ronan still probably has a chance. Surprisingly enough, this is her first SAG nomination (she was snubbed for Atonement) so both her and Larson are ingenues in the race.

film supp actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
CHRISTIAN BALE / Michael Burry – “THE BIG SHORT” (Paramount Pictures)
IDRIS ELBA / Commandant – “BEASTS OF NO NATION” (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Abel Rudolph – “BRIDGE OF SPIES” (DreamWorks)
MICHAEL SHANNON / Rick Carver – “99 HOMES” (Broad Green Pictures)
JACOB TREMBLAY / Jack – “ROOM” (A24)

PREDICTION: Christian Bale, The Big Short. Without Stallone in the equation, it’s really difficult to pinpoint which direction both the SAG and the BAFTA will go to. If the same person wins both, then we have a race. If it gets divided, then Stallone wins handily. That said, I’d give this win to Christian Bale, simply for being in the strongest film here. No one has won an acting SAG without getting nominated at the Oscars which eliminates three contenders here, and Disney hasn’t effectively been active in promoting Bridge of Spies. 

ALTERNATE: Jacob Tremblay, Room. But if there’s one performance that can overcome the Oscar snub and equate it to a win, it has got to be Jacob Tremblay. This nine-year old has continuously charmed and swept off events one after the other, that Sylvester Stallone better thank him in his speech if he wins on Oscar night.

film supp actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
ROONEY MARA / Therese Belivet – “CAROL” (The Weinstein Company)
RACHEL McADAMS / Sacha Pfeiffer – “SPOTLIGHT” (Open Road Films)
HELEN MIRREN / Hedda Hopper – “TRUMBO” (Bleecker Street)
ALICIA VIKANDER / Gerda Wegener – “THE DANISH GIRL” (Focus Features)
KATE WINSLET / Joanna Hoffman – “STEVE JOBS” (Universal Pictures)

PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl. This category loves its ingenues and giving them a welcome win can even be considered a tradition. With a busy year Alicia Vikander had, plus that long suffering wife role she had, this is, as Christoph Waltz would say it, an “uber bingo!

ALTERNATE: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs. I’m a bit iffy on the idea that Kate is winning three individual movie SAGs, let alone all for supporting roles. I still think that the love for Steve Jobs is more of an HFPA thing rather than an industry momentum.

film stunt

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“EVEREST” (Universal Pictures)
“FURIOUS 7” (Universal Pictures)
“JURASSIC WORLD” (Universal Pictures)
“MAD MAX: FURY ROAD” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – ROGUE NATION” (Paramount Pictures)

PREDICTION: Mad Max: Fury Road. Predicting this is likely picking up a paper in a box, but let’s give the advantage to the most buzzed contender which is Mad Max.

ALTERNATE: Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation. Then again, this is Stunts we’re talking about, and that shot of Tom Cruise hanging off a plane was one of the most buzzed this year, so maybe it can go Mission: Impossible‘s way.

TELEVISION PROGRAMS

tv miniseries actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
IDRIS ELBA / DCI John Luther – “LUTHER” (BBC America)
BEN KINGSLEY / Grand Vizier Ay – “TUT” (Spike)
RAY LIOTTA / Lorca/Tom Mitchell – “TEXAS RISING” (History)
BILL MURRAY / Himself – “A VERY MURRAY CHRISTMAS” (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Thomas Cromwell – “WOLF HALL” (Masterpiece/PBS)

PREDICTION: Idris Elba, Luther. This could really go to anyone in the group, I’m just giving Luther the advantage because they’ve finally recognized it after so many seasons, and it can be a consolation to those not voting for Elba in Film.

ALTERNATE: Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall. Indeed one of the more buzzed performances of the previous season was from this British thespian. Somehow, both the Emmys and Globes denied him of the win though. Maybe the actors will be more receptive to it.

tv miniseries actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
NICOLE KIDMAN / Grace – “GRACE OF MONACO” (Lifetime)
QUEEN LATIFAH / Bessie Smith – “BESSIE” (HBO)
CHRISTINA RICCI / Lizzie Borden – “THE LIZZIE BORDEN CHRONICLES” (Lifetime)
SUSAN SARANDON / Gladys Mortenson – “THE SECRET LIFE OF MARILYN MONROE” (Lifetime)
KRISTEN WIIG / Delores DeWinter – “THE SPOILS BEFORE DYING” (IFC)

PREDICTION: Queen Latifah, Bessie. Latifah is a previous winner in this same category, so there’s an advantage. Plus it’s the only “prestige” vehicle in this weak lineup.

ALTERNATE: Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco. Welp they’ve boldly had the guts to nominate this, so might as well take it all the way to a win. It’s about an actor and Nicole Kidman hasn’t received and SAG yet.

tv drama actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC)
RAMI MALEK / Elliot – “MR. ROBOT” (USA Network)
BOB ODENKIRK / Jimmy McGill – “BETTER CALL SAUL” (AMC)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Jon Hamm, Mad Men. It’s surprising to think that Jon Hamm has never won an individual SAG Award yet, but as strange as that sounds, he really hasn’t yet. And since the SAGs are sentimental to farewell shows, this could be another on the list.

ALTERNATE: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot. But then, they can also go on their own way and reward the most buzzed TV breakthrough performance of the season. The show is so not SAG’s alley, so the mere fact they’ve nominated it is an indication of strong support.

tv drama actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
VIOLA DAVIS / Annalise Keating – “HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER” (ABC)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet Crawley, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (Masterpiece/PBS)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder. Where’s Taraji P. Henson by the way? Anyway, this is the same lineup from the previous year, only without Tatiana Maslany which means she was the one in sixth last year who tied to a nomination. Three of these shows have a “been there, done that” feel, so let’s just stick with actors favorite Viola Davis.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey. Or they might as well give it to the Dame instead despite her continuous snubbing of all her American awards show nominated recognition.

tv drama ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men

PREDICTION: Mad MenOne last hurrah for the ensemble they’ve rewarded twice in the past.

ALTERNATE: Game of Thrones. Or they might as well give in to the deafening buzz of this thrice nominated, but never rewarded ensemble yet.

tv comedy actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX Networks)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
JEFFREY TAMBOR / Maura Pfefferman – “TRANSPARENT” (Amazon)

PREDICTION: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent. I actually expected that they’d already nominate him last year, but it seemed like they waited for the whole season to finish first. Now he’s off to dominate this one to join his Globe and Emmy wins.

ALTERNATE: William H. Macy, Shameless. Mr. Macy is an actor’s actor and his not so surprising upset last year is a proof of that.

tv comedy actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
ELLIE KEMPER / Kimmy Schmidt – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. After losing last year, the win is probably back in White House with JLD winning a second one for this role.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black. But this category also loves its supporting players, so they can just give Uzo Aduba a consecutive win here.

tv comedy ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Key & Peele
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Transparent
Veep

PREDICTION: Veep. This one can really go to any of the ensembles except The Big Bang Theory and Key & Peele. But with their Emmy win and increasing guild support, then I’d give the slight edge.

ALTERNATE: Orange is the New Black. At this point, Orange is the New Black felt like a passe already, but never underestimate this current champ composed of 40 member-ensemble to pull off a repeat win.

You can talk to me about this on Twitter: @nikowl

88th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions   1 comment

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After almost a year of doing monthly predictions, it has now come to this. The one moment in the year where all discussions and predictions will really be put into test. Tomorrow, the Academy announces the nominations for the best in 2015 film. To say that this year is probably the craziest one in years is really an understatement. Too many films which looked locks ended up as flops and vice versa. Then there’s that crazy Supporting Actor category with more than ten men in contention. Plus, the category confusion with many of the contenders this year. So before AMPAS president Cheryl Boone Isaacs, John Krasinski, Ang Lee, and Guillermo del Toro announce the nominations, I’ll provide my insights as to who can get nominated in all 22 categories.

BEST PICTURE
• The Big Short
• Bridge of Spies
• Brooklyn
• Carol
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Room
• Spotlight

10th (but not predicted): Straight Outta Compton

So Best Picture is a clusterfuck this year among many other things. But the way I see it, the category is divided into the upper tier, the middle tier, and the lower tier. In the upper tier, you have your frontrunners and those that benefited from the critics, guilds, and televised precursors season. You have Globe winners The Revenant and The Martian, as well as critics strong performer Spotlight and The Big Short which performed well at the guilds. I think those four are sure things here already.

The middle tier are for those who performed well at some parts, but we have some reservations with the inclusion. Carol was hit or miss with the guild getting in at WGA and at the Globes and BAFTA, but was skipped over at the DGA and PGA. Then there’s Mad Max: Fury Road whose resurgence by the critics really helped its chances. But then when everything started to make sense, the BAFTA snubs for Picture and Director happened. On the other side, there’s Bridge of Spies by Steven Spielberg who was hit or is with the guilds getting surprise inclusion but missing some key ones too. That said, it leading the BAFTA nods helped its chances. I think all three will still make it here though.

Now this is where it gets tricky. I have both Brooklyn and Room next in line even if both have caveats. Brooklyn didn’t manage to breakout well enough aside from the Saoirse Ronan mentions. Even at BAFTA, which should have been its major strength, the film didn’t overperform there. Room on the other hand was also expected to both be a critical and televised breakout, yet it didn’t happen too outside at the Globes. If anything though, being attached to the potential Best Actress winner can help its chances here. I think that if only one of these two make it here, that can be telling with our Best Actress race as well. But then I won’t be surprised if both makes it, or if both gets snubbed here.

Since we have ten spots as a maximum number of nominees here, that last spot can go to the surprise strong guild performers such as Sicario and Straight Outta Compton so don’t be surprised if either gets mentioned come Oscar nomination morning. I’d stick with my current nine as the predicted lineup though.

BEST DIRECTOR
• Todd Haynes, Carol
• Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant 
• Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
• Adam McKay, The Big Short
• George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

SPOILER: Ridley Scott, The Martian

The director lineup can be patterned with the “Upper 7” films I mentioned earlier. There’s a huge chance that we’ll end up with the same DGA five lineup for this year, but I’d like to make it seem more adventurous than that. Truth is, aside from current winner Alejandro Iñárritu, I can see a scenario where the each of the six remaining directors miss. Despite some minor trips throughout the season, I still think that Tom McCarthy is safely in here, as well as Adam McKay. Both have the same narrative in the sense that they’re finally being taken seriously in these passion projects. Todd Haynes is both a prediction and a wish here. Despite the DGA snub, part of me thinks that a director like him benefits the most from the Oscar voting being exclusive to only the directors branch. There’s always a spot reserved for a respected auteur, and he might be it. But more than that, I’m clinging to the fact that Carol is Harvey Weinstein’s main horse this year, and if he can get that unknown Morten Tyldum over Clint Eastwood happen last year, then he better work thrice his ass off for Todd Haynes to happen. I’m not counting on Spielberg to get in this year only because he missed DGA and the DGAs love him more than the Academy. The last spot is a bit tricky between two of respected veterans who are directing big, flashy efforts. In a race of Ridley Scott vs. George Miller, I see passion siding Miller’s way with Scott following the path of Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips after garnering precursor nominations for it.

BEST ACTOR
• Steve Carell, The Big Short
• Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
• Matt Damon, The Martian
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
• Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

SPOILER: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

The BAFTA five also seems like its set in stone that it’s boring me too much, and I decided to tinker around with it even if this means that it’ll backfire on me come actual announcement. Considering that it’s finally Leonardo di Caprio’s year (RIP memes, you’ll forever be missed!), it’s basically just a matter of who’s joining him. Two sure names you’d hear are Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs and Bryan Cranston for Trumbo. Fassy, despite the massive failing of Steve Jobs in the box office department managed to hang on for its dear life that this nomination is likely now. Same goes for Cranston who even got in at BAFTA even if odds aren’t on his side. Matt Damon will likely get in because he’s an American hero and he’s starring on a strong Best Picture contender, and knowing the strong connection between the two categories, this helps him. He’s likely battling the same spot with Steve Carell who’s also on a Top 3 Best Picture contender and if last year taught us anything, it’s that we should never underestimate him. Sure, it’s lacking that he’s missing out on nominations even if the movie keeps on harboring nods, but then this is the Academy we’re talking about here. So as I go back and forth between Damon, and Carell, I’d likely end up predicting both and go with a shocking Eddie Redmayne snub. Between him being the current winner, it’s not as if he needed a back to back validation nod anymore, and The Danish Girl is the weakest film in this lineup.

BEST ACTRESS
• Cate Blanchett, Carol
• Brie Larson, Room
• Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
• Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
• Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

SPOILER: Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

You have the big three here with Brie Larson, Cate Blanchett, and Saoirse Ronan being mainstay among precursors all season. Cate can enjoy nod #7 this year, as I see no path on her winning this year. In a battle of Brie vs. Saoirse though, I have to say that while Saoirse drew the first blood winning NY, it’s Brie who’s having the narrative of the Best Actress performance of the year. Since we’re talking about nominations here, I’d leave the win talk somewhere else.

As for the last two slots, I initially though that either Rooney Mara of Carol or Alicia Vikander of The Danish Girl can be promoted here due to the loud noise of their “category fraud”, but I don’t feel like either of them can muster enough support to actually end up here, especially since televised precursors have been scattered with their placements. That leaves me with Jennifer Lawrence earning nod #4 for Joy. She won the Golden Globe earlier this week and while one could credit it to the fact that she’s the only Oscar contender here, Joy as a film is still gaining decent support with the guilds, so the film is being seen. Plus, of course there’s the fact that she’s the world’s biggest star right now will help her as well.

In a much competitive year, Charlotte Rampling, despite NSFC and LA wins, would be snubbed this year considering she only collected a BFCA nod among the televised precursors. That said, in a year as open as this one with no strong possible alternate, then she can thank the lucky stars as that means she can still earn an Oscar nomination for it. I’m certain that had Jennifer Aniston’s “Cake happened this year, she would have been competitive for that nomination even more than last year. If there’s any veteran though who can surprisingly make it here, count on Helen Mirren in “Woman in Gold as this could be the category where they can reward her, plus she’s a winner and multiple nominee, and this is about Nazis and is produced by Weinstein. That SAG inclusion was telling.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Christian Bale, The Big Short
• Tom Hardy, The Revenant
• Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
• Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
• Jacob Tremblay, Room

SPOILER: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

I’d say the person who’d get this category correct might as well be called a genius because this is the category that’s probably the most headache inducing of them all. Well everyone not named Mark Rylance has a reason to be nervous at 5:30 AM because as far as I know, he’s the only one spared from the mess here (now watch him be snubbed!). Aside from him, I’d say Christian Bale can get his third career nod this decade as the acting representative of the Big Short especially if Carellreally will fall short in the end  .

Just a month ago, it seems like history will be made as Spotlight is likely the first movie since Bugsy in 1991 to garner two supporting actor nominations. That is until the televised precursor happens. Now both Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton are hanging on for their dear lives. That said, I’ll be predicting Ruffalo here as he’s gaining last minute momentum between his BFCA and BAFTA nominations plus being in a strong Best Picture upper tier movie.

Then there’s Jacob Tremblay of Room who only got a SAG nod on top of his BFCA Child Actor nomination. One can take his SAG nod with a grain of salt considering the SAG loves child performances that didn’t take off at Oscars such as Freddie Highmore in Finding Neverland to Dakota Fanning in I Am Sam. That said, I’m sticking with Tremblay just because he can be a strong coattail to the Best Actress frontrunner.

Speaking of coattails, I’ll go and predict Tom Hardy of The Revenant for the last slot. He’s starring with the likely Best Actor winner and he’s having a great year starring in the likely two most nominated Best Picture nominees. As for Sylvester Stallone and Creed, sure the Globes reception with his win is convincing that there’s passion for him, but he has nothing except Globe and BAFTA on his side.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
• Rooney Mara, Carol
• Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
• Helen Mirren, Trumbo
• Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
• Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

SPOILER: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

The continuous category confusion here for both Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara just ended up costing them both momentum for the win and thus, giving us that random Kate Winslet Golden Globe nod just two days ago. That said, count on the three to get in here. And while Vikander is competing against herself here between her two performances, chances are she’d end up getting nominated for her baitier performance in The Danish Girl.

Rachel McAdams is a hit or miss here. On one hand, she can be the ensemble representative just like Christian Bale was for The Big Short especially since Supporting Actor is a clusterfuck. But then she only got BFCA + SAG nods for it. That said, I’m keeping her in especially since that combination has done wonders for performances that came from Best Picture contenders. So unless it’s a lone acting showcase movie, then this can be a really strong combination.

Jennifer Jason Leigh makes sense as the fifth slot here, but what gives me pause is upon thinking that only Robert Forster got nominated for a Tarantino directed movie that isn’t a Best Picture nominee. Add the fact that Leigh doesn’t really have much to do until the second to third hour, and we don’t know how they’ll respond to this. Personally speaking, I’d rather keep my expectations low about her so if she ends up in the end, I’d be happy. But maybe this Oscar career nod will fail short after all. This veteran slot can easily be given to Dame Helen Mirren who’s campaigning a lot and except for that BAFTA snub, she’s starring with likely nominee Bryan Cranston which helps her a lot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
• Bridge of Spies
• Ex Machina
• The Hateful Eight
• Inside Out
• Spotlight

SPOILER: Straight Outta Compton

I don’t know what to do with that fifth slot, but I guess I’ll just go with the flow and consider that Ex Machina PGA nod as a sign of strength. Don’t underestimate Straight Outta Compton and Sicario though given their great guild runs.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
• Anomalisa
• The Big Short
• Carol
• Room
• Steve Jobs

SPOILER: The Martian

I’m probably the lone person predicting Anomalisa at this point but I guess I’m relying on the writers branch being that quirky group who still gives us surprises every now and then. After all, this is Charlie Kaufman we’re talking about here. Only The Big Short seems like a sure thing here and the rest can easily be disposed one way or another (Steve Jobs can be a Sorkin fatigue, Room might not translate outside acting, Carol was snubbed at the Globes, The Martian is more of a visual rather than a storytelling vehicle). Predicting Brooklyn gives me pause considering that Hornby was just snubbed last year for Inherent Vice of all movies to replace it, so maybe he’s just not an Academy fan in the end.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
• Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
• Mustang (France)
• Son of Saul  (Hungary)
• Theeb (Jordan)
• A War (Denmark)

SPOILER: The Brand New Testament (Belgium)

I’m just going here with the fact that this group is a mixture of the usual themes that this category lovers to award — strong studio backed films (Son of Saul, Labyrinth of Lies), films about children (Mustang, Theeb) and about war (A War). A lot seemed to be predicting The Brand New Testament though which gives me a bit of a pause since they love including comedies in the final nine but only for them to miss the actual lineup (Superclasico, Force Majeure).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
• Anomalisa
• The Good Dinosaur
• Inside Out
• The Peanuts Movie
• Shaun the Sheep

SPOILER: When Marnie Was There

Sticking with the Globe five since it’s a good mixture of critically acclaimed films and box office performers. But sometimes they’d throw in an obscure foreign animated film here which benefits When Marnie Was There in the lineup.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
• Amy
• Cartel Land
• He Named Me Malala
• Listen to Me Marlon
• The Look of Silence

SPOILER: The Hunting Ground

It’s a bit weird that this year, a lot has been person documentaries which gives me a pause if all three among Amy, He Named Me Malala, and Listen to Me Marlon will all make it. On the other, these are three different figures so there’s that. The Look of Silence is from Joshua Oppenheimer and they embraced him with The Act of Killing two years ago. Cartel Land is that “important” documentary in the lineup, though it is battling the same spot with the likes of The Hunting Ground, and Winter on Fire.

Now as for the rest of the technical categories…

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
• Carol
• The Hateful Eight
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant
• Sicario

SPOILER: Bridge of Spies

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
• Carol
• Cinderella
• Crimson Peak

• The Danish Girl
• Mad Max: Fury Road

SPOILER: Macbeth

BEST EDITING
• The Big Short
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Spotlight

SPOILER: Bridge of Spies

BEST HAIRSTYLING & MAKE UP
• The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant

SPOILER: Mr. Holmes

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
• Bridge of Spies
• The Hateful Eight
• Sicario
• Spotlight
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

SPOILER: Carol

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
• “Feels Like Summer” (Shaun the Sheep Movie)
• “I Run” (Chi-Raq)
• “The Light that Never Fails” (Meru)
• “See You Again” (Furious 7)
• “Simple Song #3” (Youth)

SPOILER: “Love Me Like You Do” (50 Shades of Gray)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
• Bridge of Spies
• Crimson Peak
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

SPOILER: The Revenant 

BEST SOUND EDITING
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

SPOILER: Inside Out

BEST SOUND MIXING
• Bridge of Spies
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

SPOILER: Sicario

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
• Ant Man
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant

• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

SPOILER: Jurassic World 

FINAL TALLY
10 –
Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant
7 –
Carol, The Martian, Spotlight
6 –
The Big Short, Bridge of Spies
5 –
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4 –
Room
3 –
Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 –
Anomalisa, The Danish Girl, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep, Trumbo

Talk about this with me on Twitter: @nikowl

73rd Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

The Golden Globes weekend has officially started! In two days, the first televised awards ceremony of the season begins with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) announces their winners of the 73rd Golden Globe Awards in a night filled with chocolates, booze, and stars. This year, Denzel Washington is the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille distinction, as Ricky Gervais comes back as the host after three years. With Tom Hanks to Mel Gibson, and Channing Tatum to Eva Longoria expected to attend, let’s predict who will end up heading to the Globes stage to give their awards speeches on Sunday (Monday here in the Philippines) in all 25 categories.

FILM:

film drama picture

Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Carol”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Revenant”
“Room”
“Spotlight”

PREDICTION: Spolight. Despite showing some weakness, this still remains as the strongest contenders among the dramatic nominees here. It will still win this category pretty easily, and there’s a chance it can only end up winning this one ala 12 Years a Slave two years ago.

ALTERNATE: Mad Max: Fury Road. This can basically be any of the films here. Carol, albeit leading the nominations is a weak contender here and can even be emptyhanded. It can also be The Revenant after snubbing eventual Oscar winner Alejandro Inarritu last year. But Mad Max is that populist and critical choice that the Golden Globes are known for.

film drama actor

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Bryan Cranston (“Trumbo”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)
Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”)
Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”)
Will Smith (“Concussion”)

PREDICTION: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”). Unlike the Oscars, the Globes haven’t been cruel to Leo winning twice in the past already. That said, being the Oscar frontrunner helps him win his third Globe come Sunday.

ALTERNATE: Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”). Fassbender is a Golden Globe winner waiting to happen, and he’s now on his third nomination in five years. In a Leo-less field, he’s probably sweeping now.

film drama actress

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Cate Blanchett (“Carol”)
Brie Larson (“Room”)
Rooney Mara (“Carol”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”)
Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)

PREDICTION: Brie Larson (“Room”). Room overperformed with nominations at the Globes this year, which makes me think that Larson got this one.

ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”). Watch out for Saoirse Ronan though who’s every inch in this race and can still steal the momentum from Larson.

film comedy

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
“The Big Short”
“Joy”
“The Martian”
“Spy”
“Trainwreck”

PREDICTION: “The Big Short”. With The Big Short only getting stronger as each day passes, it can start its Best Picture road by winning this category on Sunday.

ALTERNATE: “The Martian”. The Globes has been into some hot water after placing this film in the Comedy genre, so I think it will somehow affect its chances here if it ends up winning. As a reminder, the film’s comedy placement won only by a single vote so there’s that.

film comedy actor

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale (“The Big Short”)
Steve Carell (“The Big Short”)
Matt Damon (“The Martian”)
Al Pacino (“Danny Collins”)
Mark Ruffalo (“Infinitely Polar Bear”)

PREDICTION: Matt Damon (“The Martian”). Considering that Matt Damon hasn’t won a Golden Globe yet for acting, this makes sense as a place to reward The Martian especially if it ain’t winning Best Picture.

ALTERNATE: Steve Carell (“The Big Short”). While there’s still a path for Carell to win, the fact that they placed Christian Bale here will siphon some votes among The Big Short fans here.

film comedy actress

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”)
Melissa McCarthy (“Spy”)
Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck”)
Maggie Smith (“The Lady in the Van”)
Lily Tomlin (“Grandma”)

PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”). This category feels like the dire one last year, and Lawrence is still likely the only Oscar contender here (yup, we’re still not counting on the Dame), so maybe an easy #3 for Lawgend.

ALTERNATE: Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck”). Hollywood’s it girl for 2015 is off to have an even greater 2016, and the Globes love that kind of coronation so this win is really possible.

film supp actor

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Paul Dano (“Love & Mercy”)
Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”)
Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”)
Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”)
Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”)

PREDICTION: Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”). Rylance is an unlikely Golden Globe winner, but at this stage he’s really the strongest contender so I say why not?

ALTERNATE: Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”). This type of rewarding a veteran and even a huge moviestar is such a Globes-y thing to do, so count on the HFPA starfuckers to throw him a moment.

film supp actress

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Jane Fonda (“Youth”)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”)
Helen Mirren (“Trumbo”)
Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”)
Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)

PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”). They love Alicia Vikander so much that they nominated her twice, and considering she has no chance in Drama Lead Actress, they’ll reward her here instead.

ALTERNATE: Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”). The Globes are more appreciative of Tarantino performances, and this can signal that she’s still in the race like the trajectory of Christoph Waltz in 2012.

film directing

Best Director – Motion Picture
Todd Haynes (“Carol”)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“The Revenant”)
Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”)
George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)
Ridley Scott (“The Martian”)

PREDICTION: George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”). Surprisingly enough, this is Miller’s first ever Globe nomination so this can be his lifetime award already from the HFPA.

ALTERNATE: Ridley Scott (“The Martian”). Then there’s three-time nominee Ridley Scott who also hasn’t won here yet, and while he has already directed a Globe BP winning movie, Miller has the stronger “technical directorial achievement” narrative.

film screenplay

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Emma Donoghue (“Room”)
Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (“Spotlight”)
Charles Randolph, Adam McKay (“The Big Short”)
Aaron Sorkin (“Steve Jobs”)
Quentin Tarantino (“The Hateful Eight”)

PREDICTION: Charles Randolph, Adam McKay (“The Big Short”). Never underestimate this contender. Like what I’ve said, it’s just on an upward trajectory for now. Considering the last three wins here are upsets, I’ll give this duo the edge.

ALTERNATE: Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (“Spotlight”). It’s a battle between the two Best Picture contenders, but Spotlight has the edge in terms of winning more awards in Screenplay thus far.

film animated

Best Animated Feature Film
“Anomalisa”
“The Good Dinosaur”
“Inside Out”
“The Peanuts Movie”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie”

PREDICTION: “Inside Out”. This remains the critical pick of the year, and with huge box office performance to boot. So I’d say it’s still ahead.

ALTERNATE: “Anomalisa”. This isn’t a Globes type of pick, but it has the critics behind it, and the HFPA are more welcoming to stop motion type of animation.

film foreign language film

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
“The Brand New Testament”
“The Club”
“The Fencer”
“Mustang”
“Son of Saul”

PREDICTION: “Son of Saul”. This is still the frontrunner and no film has yet appeared to challenge it for the win. It has the prestige and the studio to nab this win.

ALTERNATE: “Mustang”. Probably Mustang comes the closest to an alternate, but I still see it falling short.

film score

Best Original Score
Carter Burwell (“Carol”)
Alexandre Desplat (“The Danish Girl”)
Ennio Morricone (“The Hateful Eight”)
Daniel Pemberton (“Steve Jobs”)
Ryuichi Sakamoto Alva Noto (“The Revenant”)

PREDICTION: Ennio Morricone (“The Hateful Eight”). They won’t let a year pass by without giving Harvey a win so it’s between his two films here. I’d give the edge to Ennio as he’s a veteran in this category.

ALTERNATE: Carter Burwell (“Carol”). This can be the place to reward Carol. After all, it’s rare for the top nomination earner movie to not take home at least one prize.

film song

Best Original Song
“Love Me Like You Do” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
“One Kind of Love” from “Love & Mercy”
“See You Again” from “Furious 7”
“Simple Song No. 3” from “Youth”
“Writing’s on the Wall” from “Spectre”

PREDICTION: “One Kind of Love” from “Love & Mercy”. While this has been ineligible at the Oscars, it actually makes more sense considering that most winners here tend to get snubbed there.

ALTERNATE: “See You Again” from “Furious 7”. The pop songs are probably canceling each other out, but if there’s one who can overcome this, it’s a song about a Hollywood actor who passed away.

TELEVISION:

tv drama

Best TV Series – Drama

“Empire”
“Game of Thrones”
“Mr. Robot”
“Narcos”
“Outlander”

PREDICTION: “Mr. Robot”. With the HFPA’s love for cable shows, it’s not surprising if they went with this critically loved breakout show from USA.

ALTERNATE: “Empire”. One has to go back nine years ago in 2006 when the top TV drama series went to a network show and that was for ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy. The closest comparison to how huge that show was in recent years was the Empire mania that has happened last year .

tv drama actor

Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”)
Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot”)
Wagner Moura (“Narcos”)
Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
Liev Schreiber (“Ray Donovan”)

PREDICTION: Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot”). Nine of the last 15 years here all came from freshman shows. But considering that the Globes tend to do a package deal of awarding a show + its lead actor (Homeland and Danes, Transparent and Tambor, Brooklyn Nine Nine and Samberg, Girls and Dunham and so on and so forth), Malek makes sense as the winner here.

ALTERNATE: Wagner Moura (“Narcos”). Following that pattern above, maybe its Narcos + Moura who might end up as the winners here.

tv drama actress

Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Caitriona Balfe (“Outlander”)
Viola Davis (“How to Get Away With Murder”)
Eva Green (“Penny Dreadful”)
Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”)
Robin Wright (“House of Cards”)

PREDICTION: Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”). Just like at the Emmys, I predict that this will be a Taraji vs. Viola battle. I give the edge to Taraji P. Henson though since Cookie is the type of role that Globes are made to award.

ALTERNATE: Viola Davis (“How to Get Away With Murder”). It can easily be Viola too considering she made history with her Emmy win, but for some reason the HFPA are reluctant to reward her. She lost to Meryl in 2011 despite being the frontrunner, and when she was a shoo-in here last year, she lost to Ruth Wilson of all people. Maybe the HFPA aren’t just fans of her.

tv comedy series

Best TV Series – Comedy
“Casual”
“Mozart in the Jungle”
“Orange Is the New Black”
“Silicon Valley”
“Transparent”
“Veep”

PREDICTION: “Transparent”. The last three shows who have won multiple awards here were GleeDesperate Housewives, and Sex and the City so they’re more into dramedies here, which helps current champ Transparent to go 2/2.

ALTERNATE: “Veep”. It’s surprising to think that this is the first Series nomination of Veep, but maybe its Emmy win can help it win its Globe trophy as well.

tv comedy actor

Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy
Aziz Ansari (“Master of None”)
Gael Garcia Bernal (“Mozart in the Jungle”)
Rob Lowe (“The Grinder”)
Patrick Stewart (“Blunt Talk”)
Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”)

PREDICTION: Aziz Ansari (“Master of None”). We’re sure with besties J.Law and Schumer in the crowd, the HFPA would use the said platform to give Aziz a memorable moent when he gives his speech.

ALTERNATE: Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”). That said, it can also be an easy back to back win for Jeffrey Tambor who can just dominate the awards shows with his brave performance for this show.

tv comedy actress

Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy
Rachel Bloom (“Crazy Ex Girlfriend”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Scream Queens”)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”)
Gina Rodriguez (“Jane the Virgin”)
Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”). I guess we can consider that the HFPA aren’t just into Veep at all.Not even her one-two punch of film and TV work two years ago ended up with a Globe win despite getting four consecutive Emmy wins already. But this race is a weak one, and with the show getting nominated as well, maybe she can finally inch a win.

ALTERNATE: Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”). Jamie Lee Curtis makes sense as an alternate, but Scream Queens is too flop of a show that even HFPA won’t bite. So I guess they’d probably give it to Lily Tomlin who’s a double nominee that night!

tv longform

Best TV Movie or Limited-Series
“American Crime”
“American Horror Story: Hotel”
“Fargo”
“Flesh and Bone”
“Wolf Hall”

PREDICTION: “Fargo”. After their surprise victory last year, then a 2/2 is indeed possible knowing that it received the same, if not more, love this year.

ALTERNATE: “Wolf Hall”. But then sometimes, they just want to embrace their British love and award this equally acclaimed series which got the same nominations as Fargo.

tv longform actor

Best Actor in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Idris Elba (“Luther”)
Oscar Isaac (“Show Me a Hero”)
David Oyelowo (“Nightingale”)
Mark Rylance (“Wolf Hall”)
Patrick Wilson (“Fargo”)

PREDICTION: Oscar Isaac (“Show Me a Hero”). This is the closest that the Globes can ride on the Star Wars wave, and Isaac is a breakthrough star waiting to happen so maybe he wins here?

ALTERNATE: Patrick Wilson (“Fargo”). We know the HFPA loves Idris but he has been rewarded for this role already. Maybe Mark Rylance but I have him pegged in Film Supporting Actor already. So that leaves me with Wilson here as the alternate.

tv longform actress

Best Actress in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Kirsten Dunst (“Fargo”)
Lady Gaga (“American Horror Story: Hotel”)
Sarah Hay (“Flesh & Bone”)
Felicity Huffman (“American Crime”)
Queen Latifah (“Bessie”)

PREDICTION: Kirsten Dunst (“Fargo”). I predict that Fargo is winning an acting one alongside its Series win, and rewarding Kirsten Dunst makes more sense than Wilson in that more competitive race.

ALTERNATE: Queen Latifah (“Bessie”). Everyone’s predicting Lady Gaga just for the sheer “Globesness” of it, but I think the HFPA is serious about being taken seriously again, so I don’t think they’d go that road. Queen Latifah makes more sense as an alternate.

tv supp actor

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Limited-Series or TV Movie
Alan Cumming (“The Good Wife”)
Damian Lewis (“Wolf Hall”)
Ben Mendelsohn (“Bloodline”)
Tobias Menzies (“Outlander”)
Christian Slater (“Mr. Robot”)

PREDICTION: Tobias Menzies (“Outlander”). The surge of love for Outlander would not go home unrewarded, as I think Menzies’ very challenging dual role would end up with a Globe win for him.

ALTERNATE: Christian Slater (“Mr. Robot”). Slater makes sense as the runner-up here, as I don’t think Mr. Robot is going 3/3.

tv supp actress

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Limited-Series, or TV Movie
Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”)
Joanne Froggatt (“Downton Abbey”)
Regina King (“American Crime”)
Judith Light (“Transparent”)
Maura Tierney (“The Affair”)

PREDICTION:Regina King (“American Crime”). After that surprising Emmy win back in September, I can see the Globes following suit with a win here.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”). Aduba’s upset loss last year reminded me of when Jane Lynch lost the first time in 2010 only to win the succeeding year. Aduba can still follow suit to this.

So what are you predicting this year to win at the Globes? Happy Golden Globes weekend!

Talk to me about it by tweeting me: @nikowl