Archive for the ‘30 rock’ Tag

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Comedy Series   Leave a comment

comedy series

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Desperate Housewives[WRONG]
2006:
The Office”[CORRECT]
2007:
The Office[WRONG]
2008:
30 Rock[CORRECT]
2009:
30 Rock[CORRECT]
2010:
Modern Family[CORRECT]
2011:
Modern Family[CORRECT]
2012:
Modern Family[CORRECT]

We’re down to the last two categories of this year’s Emmy awards, and we’ll begin with the highest honor in Comedy. With no Curb Your Enthusiasm eligible this season, one slot was available and critical darlign Louie made it in over 3x nominee and 2004 Arrested Development and a lauded sophomore season of New Girl. 

The two HBO comedies managed to hold on their spots for a consecutive year now though Veep over performed with two more acting nominations despite no directing and writing nods under its belt. Girls, on the other hand, underperformed with no writing nod now, though it managed to add one more acting nom for Adam Driver and another directing nomination. Sadly for them, they’re also the two weakest nominees in this category.

Speaking of no directing and writing nods, The Big Bang Theory is enjoying an all time high of Emmy love for a critically and commercially well received sixth season. Winning from the Critics Choice and the TCAs this year, the show is doing very well and has been the landmark of network comedies in the midst of a struggling rating natures. With that said, its lack of directing and writing nods will hurt, as only one show managed to pull off that feat in 2002 and that was NBC’s Friends. Now one can claim that both depended on the huge ratings factor under their name,  but Friends was on an all time pop culture status at the time it won the award. I don’t think Big Bang can survive the lack of directing and writing nods to pull off the win.

This year’s most critically lauded show, Louie, is also FX’s first time in this category. There’s no doubt that Louis CK is a god among Emmy voters, and that he is the it thing now. But I’m not yet confident that they’ll hand it the top prize. Maybe in the next few years, but this one is a triumph of acknowledging the show for the top category instead of giving it the win already. Let’s see how the show will be received on Sunday to gauge its future chances (though it’s off to a good start with Melissa Leo’s win earlier this week).

As for the last two contenders here, both Modern Family and  30 Rock are contending for a fourth Emmy win. 30 Rock has the advantage of going with its last season, and it is the last time to reward one of Emmy’s most loved shows of the aughts. But if history is any indication, only one show in the last decade has won for its final season (Everybody Loves Raymond in 2005). 30 Rock has been winning nothing for the last two three years, so I’m having my reservations if they’d go reward it again all of a sudden. I think they’ll give its due some category else and not here.

Given all that conditions, I’d say that in the end, Modern Family will skate in for a fourth consecutive win. This might have been their most vulnerable win if ever, but let’s gauge if there will be a fatigue of the show already. I’m not bothered with their lackluster submissions since it has been a habit for the show to do that, and I’m also not bothered with their lack of Creative Emmys win since that also happened in Season 2 yet they swept all their nominated televised awards. The thing is, if one needs to unseat MF from this category, we need one strong viable alternate, and not multiple semi-strong ones, as its tendency is that the anti-MF votes will scatter all over the place. So yes, for this year, I’m predicting a Modern Family fourpeat.

Prediction: Modern Family
Runner-Up: 30 Rock

Full Rankings:
1. “Modern Family
2. “30 Rock
3. “Louie
4. “The Big Bang Theory”
5. “Veep
6. “Girls

You can see my other Emmy predictions here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

actor comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development[WRONG]
2006:
Steve Carell, “The OfficeWRONG]
2007:
Steve Carell, “The Office[WRONG]
2008:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2009:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock[CORRECT]
2010:
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm[WRONG]
2011:
Steve Carell, “The Office” [WRONG]
2012: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” [WRONG]

Now it’s time to dissect the last acting category of the year, and at the forefront are the six funny men of comedy. This is a fairly weak category, though I love the inclusions of Jason Bateman who managed to get in despite the lacking presence of Arrested Development this season and Matt LeBlanc since I’m a big Friends fanboy, and I love seeing them rewarded for anything post-show. Sadly though, there’s not enough space left for New Girl‘s Jake Johnson who was lauded for his career best work last season. Anyway, ;et’s go to the nominees.

Alec Baldwin is in for the last time for his stint in 30 Rock. After winning in 2008 and 2009, he stopped submitting competitive episode (at times because he want co-nominees to win or maybe he stopped bothering at all). The same can be said for his submission this year A Goon’s Deed in a Weary World, where in he’s in the B storyline of the episode. With that said, Baldwin is still a force of a name in television and he’s the only person who won seven straight years at the SAGs. So that might account to something.

Oscar nominee Don Cheadle receives a second consecutive nod for House of Lies. Truth be told, I’m not the biggest fan of the show, as its humor simply doesn’t stick with me. However, I have to give him credit for coming up with a submission that at least made me chuckled. It’s a vast improvement from his submission last year. I’d still put him dead last though and stick by the idea that he just got in for his movie star status.

Surviving the Arrested Development snub is lead star Jason Bateman. Bateman benefits from the character-centric nature of the season, as he shines with the most screentime in this category. As for his submission Flight of the Phoenix, I think it did not do him any favors that his Michael is far from the typical Michael that we’ve seen from the past season. In this one, he’s clingy, desperate and unlikable which does not work well in his favor.

Aside from Alec Baldwin, Jim Parsons  is also gunning for his third Emmy win in this category. But unlike Jack Donaghy, Parsons clearly knows what to submit. He went for a throwback drunk episode which puts him the win n this category in 2010 for The Pants Alternative. By submitting The Habitation Configuration, that makes him an easy frontrunner in this category.

Matt LeBlanc is in a different situation altogether. Despite gaining no buzz for the show, they still manage to reap nods for writing and acting the same way they did two years ago. That says something with how popular the show is towards the people that matter (the nominating and voting people).  In his submission, he was in a conflicted situation as he force to give his agent a car, until the secret behind his act was revealed. LeBlanc played this role well, and I think it’s unwise to underestimate him.

And then there’s Louis CK. As each year passes, the love for his show Louie increases. Just for this year alone, he collected a total of nine nominations. With that said, I don’t know how big of a hard on the Emmys has on him since the nature of his show has a history of not winning for acting. If another Emmy favorite Larry David can’t snatch one for Curb Your Enthusiasm, then I’m adamant that they’ll lean to Louis CK’s performance. I really can’t think of a solid way to describe his chances.

I guess in the end it’s a battle of the first one to enter the three time category winners. On one hand, there’s Alec Baldwin who’s on his last shot to do so. I don’t think Baldwin can be stopped by a weak submission especially since this is their last shot to reward him. However, Jim Parsons is enjoying an all time high of critical and commercial love for the show. If anything, he can be the token recognition of Emmys acknowledging the show. But then again, I’m pretty sure 30 Rock is bound to win something, and since it did not happen with Stritch, and I’m thisclose to moving Louis CK as my winner in Writing, then this category makes sense. I go back and forth with the two, but I guess I’d go with Baldwin.

Prediction: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
Runner-Up: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory

Full Rankings:
1. Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
2. Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory
3. Louis CK, “Louie
4. Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
5. Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development
6. Don Cheadle, “Louie

You can see my other Emmy predictions here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

actress comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Marcia Cross, “Desperate Housewives[WRONG]
2006:
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback[WRONG]
2007:
America Ferrera, “Ugly Betty[CORRECT]
2008:
Tina Fey, “30 Rock[CORRECT]
2009:
Toni Collette, “United States of Tara[CORRECT]
2010:
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie[CORRECT]
2011:
Laura Linney, “The Big C[WRONG]
2012:
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep” [CORRECT]

Down to the last six categories for this year’s Emmys. Let’s go to the lead acting categories for this year’s Emmy awards. And we will begin with the funny ladies of comedy. For this year, shocking snubs went to 2011 winner Melissa McCarthy for her show Mike and Molly. Equally shocking snub goes to Zooey Deschanel of New Girl who was expected to reap up an easy follow up nom for the show’s second season. As for those who ended up with nomination, here are the six ladies in contention.

Since her win in 2010, Edie Falco has consistently received nominations throughout the four year eligibility of her show. However, with her intense competition this year, I don’t think submitting Luck of the Drawing will do her any favors. But then again, who cares? I think even she is not expecting an Emmy this year, though I’m fascinated that she still keeps getting nomination here and from the SAG Awards.

Despite the show’s cancellation, it’s really nice to see that Laura Dern managed to squeak in a nod for her work in Enlightened. Sadly for her, no one has won for a canceled season of any show in a long time in this category. That includes the one in 2006 where 4/5 of the shows won’t be coming back for the new TV season, the lone one whose show is still on won it in the end.  With that said, if you see the trends here, seven of the last eight winners won on their pilot seasons of their show. Dern is the only newbie here, so that might work. She submitted All I Ever Wanted which is an amazing tape on its own. But then again, it’s dramatic that it begs the question if they reward dramatic performances in comedy shows or comedic performances only?

For the second year, Lena Dunham picks herself an acting nomination for Girls. If last year, she submitted a lukewarm episode with the season finale, this year she did a good job of highlighting a good one by submitting Bad Friend where she got high with her close gay friend. This ended up with a confrontation with another friend and lots of cray cray stuff in between. With that said, I don’t think the nature of her character is one that you’d easily root for, and that’s one of the current trends we’ve seen in this category.  But still. I’d give her props for submitting her best acted episode.

Then you also have Amy Poehler in contention. This year, she puts her best foot forward in terms of submission by going with a two parter, which was quite a controversial choice. The combo of Emergency Response and Ben and Leslie puts her in a lot of screentime advantage as these are two separate episodes. It also puts Leslie in a different light as she focuses another side of her with these episodes. However, her character is from a Greg Daniels show and the last time that the Emmys continually nominated one resulted to no wins (that’s Steve Carell in The Office).  part of me thinks that Poehler’s Leslie will follow the same fate, especially since she’s still unrewarded and she’s on the fifth season of the show already.

Speaking of hour long submissions, Amy’s gal pal and best friend Tina Fey also submitted a longer episode by going with the series finale. Submitting series finale has worked for the then still unrewarded Sarah Jessica Parker in 2004 but not for the then already rewarded Patricia Heaton in 2005 and Debra Messing in 2006. Given how stiff the competition this year, I think Tina will be joining the latter instead of the former. After all, she has another shot at Comedy Writing which I’m currently predicting for her to win.

Lastly, current winner Julia Louis Dreyfus attempts to be the first back to back winner in this category since Patricia Heaton’s feat in 200 and 2001 for Eeverybody Loves Raymond. Submitting Running is actually an inspired choice since it shows her physical comedy plus an emotional end of the episode. Her glass door scene is probably the most memorable scene of all nominees combined, and it might be enough to pull off the win.

After some thinking, I think that this race is closer among those who have better odds of winning. I don’t see Lena or Edie winning it this year. BFFs Tina and Amy have better odds with their hour long episodes, and I won’t be surprised if one of them wins. However, I’m hesitant with Amy especially if she can’t win with weaker competitions in the past when she’s a frontrunner. Like what I said, Tina can easily be the swansong win of the show, but her chances in Writing are far better, That leaves me with the two HBO girls battling it out. If voters are looking to spread the wealth, then I can see Laura Dern getting a farewell Emmy win for this. But as for my actual prediction, I’d say JLD goes for second time at the podium finally giving her a multiple win for a TV performance. Veep made a good showing at the nominations this year, and this is still the best place to reward it.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
Runner-Up: Laura Dern, “Enlightened

Full Rankings:
1. Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
2. Laura Dern, “Enlightened
3. Tina Fey, “30 Rock
4. Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”
5. Lena Dunham, “Girls
6. Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

supp actress comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Doris Roberts, “Everybody Loves Raymond[CORRECT]
2006:
Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl[WRONG]
2007:
Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl[CORRECT]
2008:
Vanessa Williams, “Ugly Betty[WRONG]
2009:
Kristin Chenoweth, “Pushing Daisies[CORRECT]
2010:
Jane Lynch, “Glee[CORRECT]
2011:
Jane Lynch, “Glee[WRONG]
2012:
Kathryn Joosten “Desperate Housewives” [WRONG]

After supporting actor in a comedy series, let’s give the moment to the ladies now by tackling their counterparts: comedy’s supporting actresses. This year, we have a boatload of nominees here, as this category expanded to seven. And despite that, Arrested Development’s Jessica Walter still find herself with no nomination for the show’s fourth season. Poor Lucille.

Anyway, let’s begin with the cable ladies. Merritt Wever picked up a consecutive nod for her performance in Nurse Jackie. Truth be told, this late surge of love for her is something that I did not see coming at all. If anything, this would have made more sense during the show’s first season when the show was nominated for the top award. In her episode Teachable Moments, she wasn’t given much to do, and while she has the occasional snarks here and there, she’s relegated to a weak and unmemorable storyline.

Over at HBO, Anna Chlumsky is another of those who received a surprising nod. With the entire false buzz regarding her back and forth change of submission, it’s nice to see her stick with First Response. In this episode, she gets crazier than usual, as she refuses to let loose when Veep Meyer was in for an interview by Alison Janney’s character. However, this episode appeals more to those actual fans of the show.

Then we have a series of returning kids. Not only that, but they share the same first name as well. First, you have Jane Krakowski who submitted the hour long submission. While this gave her double screentime, it doesn’t put her to much advantage as compared to the Modern Family women who have, unintentionally, two submissions each. To be fair though, her song at the end of her long episode is one that will certainly bring votes her way.

After a year of snub, 2010 winner Jane Lynch is also back in contention. Sadly for her, she has been relegated to near guest-star status in terms of exposure in the show this season. In her episode Feuds though, we get to see her channel her inner Nicki Minaj with her Starship numbers with complete costume, wigs, and shiny lights to boot. Aside from that though, there’s nothing left for her submission to think that it runs for 42 minutes. Not her fault though.

Sofia Vergara has a reputation of a bad Emmy submitter. It all started when she submitted Not In My House in 2010, and it even solidified when she followed it with Slow Down Your Neighbors the following year. To her credit though, she made stronger choices since then such as her Tableau Vivant last year, and this year’s Yard Sale. In this episode, she gets to show some flashback about her beauty pageant years and perform puppetry at the end of her episode. Her only battle though is that the Emmys love her co-star better, so she can play second fiddle to her again.

Speaking of co-star, Julie Bowen is aiming for a three-peat this year. After submitting My Hero, it’s pretty clear that her team already mastered the art of finding what Emmy voters find in her character. In this episode, she has the heart and the laughs. And she is (unintentionally) helped once again by co-star Vergara’s tape. While I wouldn’t hate Julie Bowen just because she’s the one who keeps on winning here, she can be the Brad Garrett to Sofia Vergara’s Peter Boyle.

Lastly, there’s The Big Bang Theory’s Mayim Bialik. After being open last year that it was not her choice for a submission and that the networks opted for her, it seemed more in-synch with her this year, as she gets to pretend that she’s sick in her submission The Fish Guts Displacement. This episode is a showcase for her, though I don’t think it’s as strong as it perceived to be. She might benefit from having majority of her scenes interacting with Jim Parsons though, and she does a lot of physical comedy here.

As for who’s gonna win here, while I don’t think it’s out of the realm to see Sofia Vergara or Mayim Bialik pull a win here, it ultimately boils down to Julie Bowen for a three-peat or Jane Krakowski as the show’s farewell acting win ala Megan Mullally in 2006. For the meantime, I don’t see a slowdown of MF domination in the supporting categories, so I’ll be predicting Julie Bowen instead.

Prediction: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
Runner-Up: Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock

Full Rankings:
1. Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
2. Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock
3. Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family
4.Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory”
5. Anna Chlumsky, “Veep
6. Merritt Wever, “Nurse Jackie
7. Jane Lynch, “Glee

To see other Emmy predictions, you can see them here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Writing and Directing in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

comedy writing

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Desperate Housewives, “Pilot[WRONG]
2006:
Arrested Development, “Development Arrested[WRONG]
2007:
The Office, “Gay Witch Hunt[CORRECT]
2008:
30 Rock, “Cooter[CORRECT]
2009:
30 Rock, “Reunion[CORRECT]
2010:
Modern Family, “Pilot[CORRECT]
2011:
Modern Family, “Caught in the Act[CORRECT]
2012:
Girls, “Pilot” [WRONG]

After the guest acting categories, let’s move on to the two vital categories outside of acting: writing and directing.  For this year, only one episode managed to pick up both writing and directing nominations, which probably speaks on how much the writers and directors branch avoid lazy voting among episodes. Let’s first discuss the writing one.

30 Rock has two nominations in this category, apiece for their hour long finale episode. While both Hogcock! And Last Lunch complement each other effectively, one stands out far better when viewed as a single episode than the other. And I think that’s were last Lunch has its advantage.

After some misses here, The Office gets a farewell nod for its final episode. The writers have shown lots of love for the show with a win in 2007 and even a last nod for 2011’s Goodbye Michael. The finale is the longest episode from this bunch and that can work in its favor; however, with two finale episodes here (technically, there are three), sentimentality might not work on its side.

For some reason, the writers branch really like Episodes as it always find its way in the Writing branch. So far, it’s 2/2 when it comes to nominations, but like the last time, the nomination is the show’s reward.

Lastly, there’s last year’s winner Louis CK. He submitted a far much stronger episode this year as compared to his winning one, so that gives him better odds. Louie is one of only two comedy shows nominated this year for writing and directing. It’s definitely competitive for the win.

I can see it going on two separate ways: 30 Rock winning for their finale episode or Louie winning for the second year in a row. But since Louis CK has many other categories to contend it, while Tina Fey does have a far stiffer competition in Lead Actress, I’d go with Tina getting her final Emmy for 30 Rock in this category instead.

Prediction: 30 Rock, “Last Lunch
Runner-Up: Louie, “Daddy’s Girlfriend Part 1

Full Rankings:
1. 30 Rock, “Last Lunch
2. Louie, “Daddy’s Girlfriend Part 1
3. The Office, “Finale
4. 30 Rock, “Hogcock!
5. Episodes, “Episode 209” 

comedy directing

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Desperate Housewives, “Pilot[CORRECT]
2006:
My Name is Earl, “Pilot[CORRECT]
2007:
Ugly Betty, “Pilot[CORRECT]
2008:
Pushing Daisies, “Pie-lette[CORRECT]
2009:
30 Rock, “Reunion[WRONG]
2010:
Glee, “Pilot[CORRECT]
2011:
Modern Family, “Halloween[CORRECT]
2012:
Curb Your Enthusiasm, “Palestinian Chicken” [WRONG]

Now as for the directing category, one of their favorites in this category is to reward shows for their pilot episodes. But since there’s no pilot in contention this year, let’s see how the category is stacked up. First, you have the finale of 30 Rock. While the two episodes are competing against each other in the writing category, they are combined here in the directing one. Beth McCarthy Miller is still emptyhanded here for all of her previous directed episodes, and this is her last shot to win something for the show.

At the beginning, it’s surprising how Glee suddenly ends up with a directing nod after almost two seasons of snubs from the Emmys altogether. With that said, one needs to know that the reason why Diva is nominated is that its director, Paris Barclay, is DGA’s newly anointed president. If anything, this is just a token for their branch’s new president.

For the fourth year now, a Modern Family episode is nominated in this category. For this year, Arrested is their only nominated episode here which involves Haley Dunphy being arrested at her college for her underage drinking. After winning two consecutive years now, they can easily add another to continue their streak.

Lena Dunham might have been snubbed for her writing duties this season, but her directing duties were surely noticed. For this year, her nominated episode is also one of the more critically lauded ones. In On All Fours, we see a pressured Hannah being visited by her OCD tendencies again. If people are eager to reward her this year, this can be one of the stronger venues to do so.

Lastly, we have 9x nominee Louis CK. It is wise of his team to submit only one episode for directors in contention, and he chose New Year’s Eve which involved Louie’s struggles throughout the holidays. This is their only way to reward him as a director for the show, and that is a double edged sword for him. If voters like the show enough, they’d vote for him regardless. But if not, they might throw their vote elsewhere.

I can see this going into three different scenarios: First, 30 Rock getting an overdue win in this category (after all, they’re still 0 in terms of directing wins). Second, a Louie win to join his writing one last year. But in the end, I’m leaning with the idea that they still will reward Modern Family for the third year. After all, Gail Mancuso still hasn’t won as a director and will likely follow Michael Spiller and Steven Levitan this year.

Prediction: Modern Family, “Arrested
Runner-Up: Louie, “New Year’s Eve

Full Rankings:
1. Modern Family, “Arrested
2. Louie, “New Year’s Eve
3. 30 Rock, “Hogcock!/Last Lunch
4. Girls, “On All Fours”
5. Glee, “Diva

To check my complete Emmy predictions, you can see them here.

And, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

comedy guest actress

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Lupe Ontiveros, “Desperate Housewives[WRONG]
2006:
Blythe Danner, “Will & Grace[WRONG]
2007:
Judith Light, “Ugly Betty[WRONG]
2008:
Carrie Fisher, “30 Rock[WRONG]
2009:
Tina Fey, “Saturday Night Live[CORRECT]
2010:
Betty White, “Saturday Night Live[CORRECT]
2011:
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Glee[CORRECT]
2012:
Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live” [WRONG]

And to finally complete the four guest acting categories, let’s go on and tackle the Guest Actress in a Comedy Series. Historically, I’ve done really bad in this category unless there’s a frontrunner, and even then, I still sometimes stumble (coughMelissaMcCarthycough). With that said, let’s first give some spots to snubbed performances such as those of Liza Minelli in Arrested Development (what does she have to do to get that late but deserved nod!??), and Parker Posey in Louie. Anyway, let’s begin!

Speaking of Louie, Melissa Leo picks up her second Emmy nod in three years; this time, it’s her comedic turn for Louis CK’s show. In her episode Telling Jokes/Set Up, the aggressive Laurie makes some moves on Louie after being set up by a common friend. Melissa Leo really has some LOL moments in her episodes, and it doesn’t even need much introduction to see the fun in her character. I think she has the most memorable scene among all the tapes in this category. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s an Oscar winner.

Then you have the other Melissa…Melissa McCarthy that is. After her surprising loss for Saturday Night Live last year, her second hosting stint once again gained her a consecutive nod in this category. Truth be told, this wasn’t even comparable to the great pilot hosting stint she had last year, but if Emmys want to play nice and catch up with her, then she’s definitely in the running.

Speaking of SNL, previous perennial Supporting Actress nominee Kristen Wiig hosts the show for the first time after ending her stint as a mainstay on the show. She has the longest episode here, as she appears in all the gags throughout the show. It’s also a different dynamic every time a previous mainstay comes back and host the show. However, as proven many times in the past, Emmys are the least sentimental awards group, and they probably won’t even care for this narrative at all.

Another past SNL mainstay is nominated here, though not necessarily for hosting the show. Molly Shanon picks up a surprise Emmy nod for a somewhat resurgence of love for HBO’s canceled series Enlightened. In her episode The Ghost is Seen, she played the person whom Amy used in order to get their needed files. Shannon comes off as very sympathetic by the end of the episode, and while I won’t be surprised if she somehow wins it, I feel that her odds are relatively small as compared to the other women here.

2007 champ here Elaine Stritch comes back for her last shot for 30 Rock after missing last year here. As a perennial nominee, it’s surprising how she was left off the list last year, but with one win and multiple nods under her belt, it’s one of the easier nods to predict this year. As for her submission My Whole Life is Thunder, let’s just say it puts Coleen Donaghy’s character back to full circle, and this one tugs your heart the most. However, same as Wiig’s case, Emmys are very far from sentimental though let’s see if they give her a free pass for it.

To close this one, we have another perennial nominee: Glee‘s Dot Marie Jones. Jones is on her third consecutive nod this year, and while it amazes me how she still keeps getting nominated, I’m more surprised how voters favor her much. It is wise of her to submit the show’s most buzzed episode Shooting Star, though I don’t think she has any Emmy worthy submission this year, so at least she gave her best shot in it.

There’s a lot of directions this category can actually end up going with. I guess I have to go with Elaine Stritch then. The Emmys usually give farewell wins to shows they really love (Frasier, Will & Grace, Everybody Loves Raymond) and they do it by throwing out acting wins. This can be an easy farewell to both Stritch and 30 Rock the show. If not her, they maybe either one of the Melissas grab the momentum. There are instances when Emmys play catch up so McCarthy might benefit from this, then the movie star in a TV guest stint might be too big to ignore for them and works for Leo. Though with that last part, I’m still adamant with a Louie actor winning for the show and it’s not someone names Louis CK. Stritch then, I guess.

Prediction: Elaine Stritch, 30 Rock
Runner-Up: Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live

Full Rankings:
1. Elaine Stritch, 30 Rock
2. Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live
3. Melissa Leo, Louie
4. Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
5. Molly Shannon, Enlightened
6. Dot Marie Jones, Glee

To check out other Emmy predictions, you can see them here.

Also, you might want to follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

comedy guest actor

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Alec Baldwin, “Will and Grace[WRONG]
2006:
Martin Sheen, “Two and a Half Men[WRONG]
2007:
Stanley Tucci, “Monk[CORRECT]
2008:
Will Arnett, “30 Rock[WRONG]
2009:
Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live[CORRECT]
2010:
Neil Patrick Harris, “Glee[CORRECT]
2011:
Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live[CORRECT]
2012:
Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live[CORRECT]

For the last few years, the comedy guest acting categories have been home of mostly Saturday Night Live hosts with them getting nominated yearly and having three of the last four winners from their show. Is SNL the Law and Order: SVU in this category? Hmm. For this year, notable misses were Patrick Wilson of Girls, perennial nominee Will Arnett for 30 Rock, and former SNL (shocker!) cast member Martin Short’s hosting stint.

Justin Timberlake comes back for a third bid in this category, for his latest SNL appearance. After his two previous wins here, it is unwise to dismiss his chances here. After all, this has the same format of his last two winning stints. He also had the benefit of being the musical performer in his episode which means he has the longest screentime out of everybody (even doubling some of the other nominees in this category).

As for the other SNL nominee here, Louis C.K. has the second most screentime here. Between his eight other nominations, it’s clear that he is very well loved by the Academy and that can translate to any win. This can be one of his easier wins if the voters go all Louis CK this year. Besides, he has the second longest exposure among the nominees here.

For his stint as Pepper, Nathan Lane receives another nomination for Modern Family. He wasn’t given much to do in his submitted episode (A Slight in the Opera) , as all he has is one memorable slap from the episode’s B storyline. One might consider this as confidence in his performance for him to get nominated despite nothing to do, but maybe I’m just over thinking and this is the result of lazy voting.

Despite being a legendary presence in American television, it is really surprising that Bob Newhart still hasn’t won an Emmy yet. This year, he adds another nomination under his résumé for his performance as Professor Proton in The Big Bang Theory’s The Proton Resurgence episode. While this one is more of a buzzed casting, Newhart was fantastic in his short moments and has good chemistry with the whole cast.

Then you have Nurse Jackie’s Bobby Cannavale coming back for a consecutive nod. I remember liking his episode last year better than this one (Walk of Shame), as this one packs an all emotional dramatic punch and no comedic hints at all. In here, he had his exit interview in All Saints. He seems to be one of the actors that Emmys love to reward with nomination.

And for the sixth year in a row, a Will is nominated for 30 Rock. Surprisingly though, it is not Will Arnett who gets the farewell nomination for the show. For the first time, Will Forte is the one who was nommed for the show.  This is quite a headscratching nomination as his screentime in his episode “My Whole Life is Thunder” is two minutes tops. He is in the smallest storyline of the season and this one doesn’t require him to do anything. Part of me thinks if his good word for his film (the Cannes entry Nebraska) during the voting period factored in here.

As for the winner, while this is leaning towards another Saturday Night Live win, I’m inclined to go with Emmyless veteran Bob Newhart for his turn as Professor Proton. However, this is not a slam dunk tape and maybe they’d go for either Louis CK or Justin Timberlake. With that said, the desire for Newhart to win an Emmy is on the roof now, and this is their chance to reward him.

Prediction: Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory
Runner-Up: Louis CK, Saturday Night Live

Full Rankings:
1. Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory
2. Louis CK, Saturday Night Live
3. Justin Timberlake, Saturday Night Live
4. Nathan Lane, Modern Family
5. Bobby Cannavale, Nurse Jackie
6. Will Forte, 30 Rock

To check out other Emmy predictions, simply click here.

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

The Big Bang Theory continues to dominate the ratings game, and it seems to fill in the “traditional sitcom” slot opted to one of the nominees every year in this category. As a matter of fact, that seems to be the only thing in their favor now as overall reception was that it was a weak season, and the nomination is purely because of lazy writing. When the types of Louie and Parks and Recreation gets snubbed in favor of highly rated shows, that’s when backlash begins. Seems like for this year, this is the show that takes the cake for the most bashed nomination award.

Curb Your Enthusiasm finished in another eligibility season, and of course easily makes it in the series line up. The thing with this show is that it’s the type of show that voters love to nominate but never give any award to. As a matter of fact, since its inception a decade ago, the total number of Emmys it received is one. It seems as though the pattern will be the same this year, though what’s working in its favor is that if it still loses, this will be the show that got the most nominations in this category yet still loses every single one of them. For that alone (and a little bit of weak competition), I expect that this is one of the years with their closest shot for a win.

Many shows comparably put Girls in the same sentence as “Sex and the City.” And while there can be some similarities you can see about the two, one thing you can add to that list is their Emmy fate. This year, Girls got 5 noms and four of them were for creator Lena Dunham. If it’s any indication, all the nominations this year were to recognize that the show existed and for Dunham as being the it girl of the year. With that being said, it’s the only show among this roster to get acting, writing, and directing nods so that probably says support to an extent. However, I think they will be waiting for the next few years first before giving this show the crown.

Current two time champ Modern Family is still in contention for a threepeat this year. While consensus say that this is the show’s weakest season, that still did not stop them from giving the show a boatload of nomination including seven for acting which includes all noms for the main adult cast of the show. It also got two directing nods, and while there is no writing nomination this year, it seems like the Modern Family train is still not stopping in terms of Emmy reception. With that said, it is easy to say that the show will win another trip on the way to the podium as they receive their third Comedy Series plum this year.

30 Rock is a former three time winner who gets consistently nominated all the years it is eligible for the top award. While the same happened again this year, this now remains to be the show that they will consistently nominate even if it has no chance on bagging the top trophy. The good thing about though is that this season definitely merits another Comedy Series as we get to see a resurgence of the top 30 Rock quality that gave the show Comedy Series Emmys. With their impending final season next year, they might be more competitive for a 4th win battle (between Modern Family) next year, but they sadly will sit this one out this year.

Veep, the surprising third HBO show to get a nomination in this category, happens to be this political themed show starring Julia Louis Dreyfus and helmed by Armando Iannucci. I think those two names alone plus HBO as the home company propelled this little show all the way to the top trophy nomination. With only three nomination under its belt this year, I see it follow the same pattern as Girls. The nomination serves as a way of the Emmy people to recognize that the show exists, and given the confidence that their next seasons will be better in terms of awards recognition.

Like what I said, both perceived frontrunners Louis and Parks and Recreation missed the nod this year, With that said, it’s an easy threepeat for Modern Family thinking there’s no solid alternate again for the show to be unseated. Lucky family, I must say.

Prediction: Modern Family
Dark Horse: Curb Your Enthusiasm


Complete Predictions:
1. Modern Family
2. Curb Your Enthusiasm
3. Girls
4. 30 Rock
5. The Big Bang Theory
6. Veep

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Zooey Deschanel, “New Girl” (Bad in Bed)
• Lena Dunham, “Girls” (She Did)
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie” (Disneyland Sucks)
• Tina Fey, “30 Rock” (The Tuxedo Begins)
• Julia Louis Dreyfus “Veep” (Tears)
• Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly” (The Dress)
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation” (Win, Lose, or Draw)

It girl Zooey Deschanel gets a nod for playing the title character in FOX’s hit comedy New Girl. In her episode, she tries to learn how to properly seduce the character of Justin Long so she asks the help of the guys, watches porn for practice, and buys kinky S&M outfit. While she was funny on her scenes, her episode also contains an equally hilarious storyline with Schmidt wanting to impress his pregnant boss when and pushed her in the pool. Deschanel can also be lost in the middle of all these performances, but I’d give her props for mixing physical comedy with her usual funny line deliveries.

Lena Dunham is the Emmys’ it girl this year garnering nods for writing, directing, acting, and producing the HBO comedy “Girls”. Sadly, her episode, which is the season finale, didn’t highlight her that much and did not introduce her character well to voters. I actually like her last few scenes from the train to the beach, but I don’t think it will stand out amidst the group of actual hilarious performances by the other nominees. If anything, she’ll get her consolation in the Writing category where she’s the actual frontrunner.

Up until now, Edie Falco still holds the record for the only actress who has wins for Best Actress both in the Drama and Comedy genres. her Comedy win is for the show where in she’s nominated again this year, Nurse Jackie. In her submitted episode, Falco goes to rehab which she dubbed as “Disneyland” and gets a visit from her daughter wherein she pretended that she was working there. This is a very good submission from Falco showing her great acting chops. Is Falco good? Definitely. Is it comedic enough? Nope. And that’s the reason on what will hinder her from the win.

After her first year submission blunder, Tina Fey has been a very good submitter when it comes to the Emmys, that’s why one cannot eliminate and dimish her chances when analyzing and viewing the tapes. The same can be said this year where in Liz Lemon and Jack Donaghy portrayed a Batman like stunt to save New York. Fey, complete with hilarious make up and playing various characters, is definitely on the top of her game with this episode and could have been an easy winner any other year. However, like what I mentioned earlier, while Fey is a consistent good submitter, she hasn’t received a second win in this category, and I don’t think this will change this year. There’s no denying though that this is her best submission since Reunion three years ago.

Julia Louis Dreyfus is one of the actresses that Emmy really loves. How she propelled a victory in 2006 is a big testament to that. Since then, she has been a perennial nominee and has received Emmys for both of her last two shows where in she’s a regular. This year, the same pattern happens when she’s nominated for her performance as Vice President Selena Meyer. In her submitted episode, she played the underdog with matching tears after receiving disappointment numbers from the people. Julia’s capability to shift from an underdog lady who misses her daughter to a foul mouthed official when she’s ranting to her staff will definitely stay with the voters. It also helps that the show is received enough even bagging a surprise Comedy Series nomination.

Melissa McCarthy‘s surprise win last year was mainly caused of Bridesmaids, but she has established so much this year that she can make her performance remain on the voters’ radar for the consecutive this year. I’m surprised how strong her tape is, as it dealt  with typical Emmy bait when she tries so hard to lose weight to fit in her wedding dress. I think this will work well with voters, and like the case of Jon Cryer, the disdain over her show and surprise Emmy win is what makes others dismiss her Emmy chances. I think that she’s in this race, and while I don’t think she’ll be the one to break the no wins here in this category, among the three past winners, she has what it takes to do so.

Amy Poehler should have an Emmy already in her mantle, and it’s a surprise that she still hasn’t received any after being nominated the last five years (combination of SNL and Parks and Recreation). This year, she submitted the season finale in which it was finally revealed what’s there for Leslie’s political ambitions. I see Poehler’s fate the same as Louis CK’s that if we based it on season long submission, she has a stronger chance, but she submitted an episode that works more on the heart rather than the laughs. Not that it’s a bad thing, and I think it’s a really good submission for Poehler; however, Greg Daniels characters haven’t had any luck in terms of any Emmy recognition, and I sadly don’t see any Emmy for Amy’s way. I’d be totally glad if she pulls it off though.

This is really difficult to predict especially the blunder re:tape of Zooey Deschanel, so every ranking really matters. For all we know, those who got the most number one votes also got the last place ones and someone who’s simply in the middle of the pack wins. For now, I’m going with Julia Louis Dreyfus who combines Emmy predigree, good tape, and right buzz for the win.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Dark Horse: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”

Complete Rankings:
1. Louis Dreyfus
2. Poehler
3. McCarthy
4. Deschanel
5. Dunham
6. Fey
7. Falco

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” (Live from Studio 6H)
• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies” (Gods of Dangerous Financial Instruments)
• Louis CK, “Louie” (Duckling)
• Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men” (Frodo’s Headshots)
• Larry David “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Palestinian Chicken)
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” (The Werewolf Transformation)

Alec Baldwin is on his sixth nomination and had won twice already. While his episode Live From Studio 6H is a good one where he gets to do various characters that’s reminiscent of his winning episode, it’s not a surefire material that will give him his third Emmy. Also, the fact that 30 Rock has been some sort of a perennial nominee but not the Emmys choice for any win (they have been empty handed the last two years) gives him a disadvantage. Maybe they’ll wait for 30 Rock’s swansong last year for him and the rest of the show to be competitive again. Don Cheadle is the newbie nominee in this group, and I think it’s a result of how weak the options were this year. House of Lies isn’t necessarily a funny show, nor his submission, the pilot, has anything new to offer. I’d even put this role in the veins of David Duchovny in Californication and Thomas Jane in Hung which were both snubbed for an Emmy nomination. His exception for a nomination is a combination of a weak competition plus his star status, but not even his Emmyless state will help him all the way to the podium this year. With Leblanc coming back next year, plus a plethora of new shows, I’d be surprised if he even managed a consecutive nomination. Louis CK will surely be the winner if we based it on whole season performances. However, given his submission “Duckling”, I think it can be a hit or miss for the voters. On one hand, he gets to have 40 minutes of screentime in his episode, and this one targets more of the heart than the laughs with him doing stand up comedy for the troops. On the other hand, there isn’t any LOL moments that one expects to see given the double screentime his episode had. I think he has some other episodes that were more competitive than this one, but its not wise to dismiss his chances altogether. However, with all his other nominations (a record breaking SEVEN!), he can easily be a victim of vote splitting among voters where they will reward him with an Emmy. After six consecutive nods and one victory in the Supporting category, Jon Cryershifts to Lead status and easily gets a seventh nomination. His episode is classic Emmy bait as he gets to lose his mind and suffers a breakdown with everything happening around him. This has a combination of physical comedy, one liners, and I see him very competitive since no one submitted a sure fire winning submission. If anything, dislike towards his show is what hinders people from dismissing his chances because he is so in the race. The Emmys love his Alan Harper role so much (to the point they nominated it last year over Barney Stinson), and with a surprise SAG nom earlier this year, I can see him winning all the way. Maybe it’s because they don’t love actors portraying themselves but Larry David hasn’t still won an Emmy for his performance in the show despite him being continuously nominated. Two years ago, I predicted him with that Seinfeld episode which I took as a sign that Emmy voters will eat up, and yet he still lost to Jim Parsons. This year, he again submitted the show’s best episode, and if overdue status is to be considered, then he’ll definitely have a chance again. He is funny in his submitted episode, but it does not cater to everyone and might be divisive in general. Voters seem to love Jim Parsons‘s Sheldon Cooper so much to the point that he won against Steve Carell’s last year, and despite strong submissions from a should be three-peat of Alec Baldwin, a last for Tony Shalhoub, and a Seinfeld ep from Larry David two years ago. This year, Parsons submitted an episode that highlights the wackiness of Sheldon with him not wanting to get a haircut from others because his usual barber is in the hospital. It features him suffering a semi-breakdwon while playing the bongos during midnight and visiting the barber with scissors on his hands. It’s not as strong as his first win, but I see voters checking his name off here.

There is no standout performance per se, so we might be in for a surprise, but the past four years led us to wins in traditional sitcoms. I see the trend happening this year between Jon Cryer and Jim Parsons; however, I’m giving the edge to Parsons to mark a threepeat in this category.

Prediction: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Dark Horse: Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men”

Complete Rankings:
1. Parsons
2. Cryer
3. David
4. CK
5. Baldwin
6. Cheadle