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ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

The Big Bang Theory continues to dominate the ratings game, and it seems to fill in the “traditional sitcom” slot opted to one of the nominees every year in this category. As a matter of fact, that seems to be the only thing in their favor now as overall reception was that it was a weak season, and the nomination is purely because of lazy writing. When the types of Louie and Parks and Recreation gets snubbed in favor of highly rated shows, that’s when backlash begins. Seems like for this year, this is the show that takes the cake for the most bashed nomination award.

Curb Your Enthusiasm finished in another eligibility season, and of course easily makes it in the series line up. The thing with this show is that it’s the type of show that voters love to nominate but never give any award to. As a matter of fact, since its inception a decade ago, the total number of Emmys it received is one. It seems as though the pattern will be the same this year, though what’s working in its favor is that if it still loses, this will be the show that got the most nominations in this category yet still loses every single one of them. For that alone (and a little bit of weak competition), I expect that this is one of the years with their closest shot for a win.

Many shows comparably put Girls in the same sentence as “Sex and the City.” And while there can be some similarities you can see about the two, one thing you can add to that list is their Emmy fate. This year, Girls got 5 noms and four of them were for creator Lena Dunham. If it’s any indication, all the nominations this year were to recognize that the show existed and for Dunham as being the it girl of the year. With that being said, it’s the only show among this roster to get acting, writing, and directing nods so that probably says support to an extent. However, I think they will be waiting for the next few years first before giving this show the crown.

Current two time champ Modern Family is still in contention for a threepeat this year. While consensus say that this is the show’s weakest season, that still did not stop them from giving the show a boatload of nomination including seven for acting which includes all noms for the main adult cast of the show. It also got two directing nods, and while there is no writing nomination this year, it seems like the Modern Family train is still not stopping in terms of Emmy reception. With that said, it is easy to say that the show will win another trip on the way to the podium as they receive their third Comedy Series plum this year.

30 Rock is a former three time winner who gets consistently nominated all the years it is eligible for the top award. While the same happened again this year, this now remains to be the show that they will consistently nominate even if it has no chance on bagging the top trophy. The good thing about though is that this season definitely merits another Comedy Series as we get to see a resurgence of the top 30 Rock quality that gave the show Comedy Series Emmys. With their impending final season next year, they might be more competitive for a 4th win battle (between Modern Family) next year, but they sadly will sit this one out this year.

Veep, the surprising third HBO show to get a nomination in this category, happens to be this political themed show starring Julia Louis Dreyfus and helmed by Armando Iannucci. I think those two names alone plus HBO as the home company propelled this little show all the way to the top trophy nomination. With only three nomination under its belt this year, I see it follow the same pattern as Girls. The nomination serves as a way of the Emmy people to recognize that the show exists, and given the confidence that their next seasons will be better in terms of awards recognition.

Like what I said, both perceived frontrunners Louis and Parks and Recreation missed the nod this year, With that said, it’s an easy threepeat for Modern Family thinking there’s no solid alternate again for the show to be unseated. Lucky family, I must say.

Prediction: Modern Family
Dark Horse: Curb Your Enthusiasm


Complete Predictions:
1. Modern Family
2. Curb Your Enthusiasm
3. Girls
4. 30 Rock
5. The Big Bang Theory
6. Veep
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ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Zooey Deschanel, “New Girl” (Bad in Bed)
• Lena Dunham, “Girls” (She Did)
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie” (Disneyland Sucks)
• Tina Fey, “30 Rock” (The Tuxedo Begins)
• Julia Louis Dreyfus “Veep” (Tears)
• Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly” (The Dress)
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation” (Win, Lose, or Draw)

It girl Zooey Deschanel gets a nod for playing the title character in FOX’s hit comedy New Girl. In her episode, she tries to learn how to properly seduce the character of Justin Long so she asks the help of the guys, watches porn for practice, and buys kinky S&M outfit. While she was funny on her scenes, her episode also contains an equally hilarious storyline with Schmidt wanting to impress his pregnant boss when and pushed her in the pool. Deschanel can also be lost in the middle of all these performances, but I’d give her props for mixing physical comedy with her usual funny line deliveries.

Lena Dunham is the Emmys’ it girl this year garnering nods for writing, directing, acting, and producing the HBO comedy “Girls”. Sadly, her episode, which is the season finale, didn’t highlight her that much and did not introduce her character well to voters. I actually like her last few scenes from the train to the beach, but I don’t think it will stand out amidst the group of actual hilarious performances by the other nominees. If anything, she’ll get her consolation in the Writing category where she’s the actual frontrunner.

Up until now, Edie Falco still holds the record for the only actress who has wins for Best Actress both in the Drama and Comedy genres. her Comedy win is for the show where in she’s nominated again this year, Nurse Jackie. In her submitted episode, Falco goes to rehab which she dubbed as “Disneyland” and gets a visit from her daughter wherein she pretended that she was working there. This is a very good submission from Falco showing her great acting chops. Is Falco good? Definitely. Is it comedic enough? Nope. And that’s the reason on what will hinder her from the win.

After her first year submission blunder, Tina Fey has been a very good submitter when it comes to the Emmys, that’s why one cannot eliminate and dimish her chances when analyzing and viewing the tapes. The same can be said this year where in Liz Lemon and Jack Donaghy portrayed a Batman like stunt to save New York. Fey, complete with hilarious make up and playing various characters, is definitely on the top of her game with this episode and could have been an easy winner any other year. However, like what I mentioned earlier, while Fey is a consistent good submitter, she hasn’t received a second win in this category, and I don’t think this will change this year. There’s no denying though that this is her best submission since Reunion three years ago.

Julia Louis Dreyfus is one of the actresses that Emmy really loves. How she propelled a victory in 2006 is a big testament to that. Since then, she has been a perennial nominee and has received Emmys for both of her last two shows where in she’s a regular. This year, the same pattern happens when she’s nominated for her performance as Vice President Selena Meyer. In her submitted episode, she played the underdog with matching tears after receiving disappointment numbers from the people. Julia’s capability to shift from an underdog lady who misses her daughter to a foul mouthed official when she’s ranting to her staff will definitely stay with the voters. It also helps that the show is received enough even bagging a surprise Comedy Series nomination.

Melissa McCarthy‘s surprise win last year was mainly caused of Bridesmaids, but she has established so much this year that she can make her performance remain on the voters’ radar for the consecutive this year. I’m surprised how strong her tape is, as it dealt  with typical Emmy bait when she tries so hard to lose weight to fit in her wedding dress. I think this will work well with voters, and like the case of Jon Cryer, the disdain over her show and surprise Emmy win is what makes others dismiss her Emmy chances. I think that she’s in this race, and while I don’t think she’ll be the one to break the no wins here in this category, among the three past winners, she has what it takes to do so.

Amy Poehler should have an Emmy already in her mantle, and it’s a surprise that she still hasn’t received any after being nominated the last five years (combination of SNL and Parks and Recreation). This year, she submitted the season finale in which it was finally revealed what’s there for Leslie’s political ambitions. I see Poehler’s fate the same as Louis CK’s that if we based it on season long submission, she has a stronger chance, but she submitted an episode that works more on the heart rather than the laughs. Not that it’s a bad thing, and I think it’s a really good submission for Poehler; however, Greg Daniels characters haven’t had any luck in terms of any Emmy recognition, and I sadly don’t see any Emmy for Amy’s way. I’d be totally glad if she pulls it off though.

This is really difficult to predict especially the blunder re:tape of Zooey Deschanel, so every ranking really matters. For all we know, those who got the most number one votes also got the last place ones and someone who’s simply in the middle of the pack wins. For now, I’m going with Julia Louis Dreyfus who combines Emmy predigree, good tape, and right buzz for the win.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Dark Horse: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”

Complete Rankings:
1. Louis Dreyfus
2. Poehler
3. McCarthy
4. Deschanel
5. Dunham
6. Fey
7. Falco

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” (Live from Studio 6H)
• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies” (Gods of Dangerous Financial Instruments)
• Louis CK, “Louie” (Duckling)
• Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men” (Frodo’s Headshots)
• Larry David “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Palestinian Chicken)
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” (The Werewolf Transformation)

Alec Baldwin is on his sixth nomination and had won twice already. While his episode Live From Studio 6H is a good one where he gets to do various characters that’s reminiscent of his winning episode, it’s not a surefire material that will give him his third Emmy. Also, the fact that 30 Rock has been some sort of a perennial nominee but not the Emmys choice for any win (they have been empty handed the last two years) gives him a disadvantage. Maybe they’ll wait for 30 Rock’s swansong last year for him and the rest of the show to be competitive again. Don Cheadle is the newbie nominee in this group, and I think it’s a result of how weak the options were this year. House of Lies isn’t necessarily a funny show, nor his submission, the pilot, has anything new to offer. I’d even put this role in the veins of David Duchovny in Californication and Thomas Jane in Hung which were both snubbed for an Emmy nomination. His exception for a nomination is a combination of a weak competition plus his star status, but not even his Emmyless state will help him all the way to the podium this year. With Leblanc coming back next year, plus a plethora of new shows, I’d be surprised if he even managed a consecutive nomination. Louis CK will surely be the winner if we based it on whole season performances. However, given his submission “Duckling”, I think it can be a hit or miss for the voters. On one hand, he gets to have 40 minutes of screentime in his episode, and this one targets more of the heart than the laughs with him doing stand up comedy for the troops. On the other hand, there isn’t any LOL moments that one expects to see given the double screentime his episode had. I think he has some other episodes that were more competitive than this one, but its not wise to dismiss his chances altogether. However, with all his other nominations (a record breaking SEVEN!), he can easily be a victim of vote splitting among voters where they will reward him with an Emmy. After six consecutive nods and one victory in the Supporting category, Jon Cryershifts to Lead status and easily gets a seventh nomination. His episode is classic Emmy bait as he gets to lose his mind and suffers a breakdown with everything happening around him. This has a combination of physical comedy, one liners, and I see him very competitive since no one submitted a sure fire winning submission. If anything, dislike towards his show is what hinders people from dismissing his chances because he is so in the race. The Emmys love his Alan Harper role so much (to the point they nominated it last year over Barney Stinson), and with a surprise SAG nom earlier this year, I can see him winning all the way. Maybe it’s because they don’t love actors portraying themselves but Larry David hasn’t still won an Emmy for his performance in the show despite him being continuously nominated. Two years ago, I predicted him with that Seinfeld episode which I took as a sign that Emmy voters will eat up, and yet he still lost to Jim Parsons. This year, he again submitted the show’s best episode, and if overdue status is to be considered, then he’ll definitely have a chance again. He is funny in his submitted episode, but it does not cater to everyone and might be divisive in general. Voters seem to love Jim Parsons‘s Sheldon Cooper so much to the point that he won against Steve Carell’s last year, and despite strong submissions from a should be three-peat of Alec Baldwin, a last for Tony Shalhoub, and a Seinfeld ep from Larry David two years ago. This year, Parsons submitted an episode that highlights the wackiness of Sheldon with him not wanting to get a haircut from others because his usual barber is in the hospital. It features him suffering a semi-breakdwon while playing the bongos during midnight and visiting the barber with scissors on his hands. It’s not as strong as his first win, but I see voters checking his name off here.

There is no standout performance per se, so we might be in for a surprise, but the past four years led us to wins in traditional sitcoms. I see the trend happening this year between Jon Cryer and Jim Parsons; however, I’m giving the edge to Parsons to mark a threepeat in this category.

Prediction: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Dark Horse: Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men”

Complete Rankings:
1. Parsons
2. Cryer
3. David
4. CK
5. Baldwin
6. Cheadle

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Elizabeth Banks, “30 Rock” (The Return of Avery Jessup)
• Kathy Bates, “Two and a Half Men” (Why We Gave Up Women)
• Margaret Cho, “30 Rock” (The Return of Avery Jessup)
• Dot Marie Jones, “Glee” (Choke)
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live” (Host: Melissa McCarthy)
• Maya Rudolph, “Saturday Night Live” (Host: Maya Rudolph)

It’s funny to note how everyone’s supposed frontrunner Ellen Barkin was snubbed for a nomination when she was even predicted to be the winner this year. Anyway, Elizabeth Banks reaped a consecutive nod as Avery Jessup, and I find her submission to be better this year than her baby storyline last year. However, while I’m a fan of her chemistry with Alec Baldwin, I feel that her banters with him can go either way: people appreciating it or people feeling Baldwin owned that scene. Still Emmyless Kathy Bates nabbed two noms this year, and the first one is for her portrayal as the reincarnation of Charlie Sheen’s character in Two and a Half Men. In her submitted episode, she gets to smoke cigar and play the role of Charlie that is reminiscent of the Emmy nominated character. If voters feel that she’s somewhat overdue, I can see them giving her the Emmy in this category. Margaret Cho seems like a very humble character actress who was very elated with her Emmy nomination; however, her material simply does not warrant it. Her total episode screentime reminds me of Ellen Busrtyn’s infamous 2006 nomination. Yes, she gets to play different characters, but even in her submitted episode, it was her co-nominee Banks that stole the show from her. Dot Marie Jones remains to be the sole major Emmy nod for Glee, and her consecutive nod is an assurance that voters really like her character. While her episode tends to be on the dramatic side, she certainly leaves enough impact at the end f her episode, and I won’t be surprised if voters reward her with the trophy. The last two noms are both from Saturnday Night Live; the first one is current Emmy Best Actress Comedy champ Melissa McCarthy. In her submitted episode, she was really memorable especially in the skits that involved tasting a new salad dressing and the one where she keeps on falling the stairs. Those two skits alone can definitely assure her a justified and deserved win, IMO. The other SNL nominated performance belongs to Maya Rudolph who is a past SNL alum. This is the first time she hosted the show, and I’m really happy that she got nominated. The variation of the roles she played from a white trash (with Amy Poehler) to Beyonce to Michelle Obama and Maya Angelou is really memorable, and she blends well with the cast that it’s just pure comic genius that you’re seeing while watching the episode.

In the end, I feel it’s a battle of the Bridesmaids co-stars. At one hand, McCarthy being Emmy champ and the current comedy it girl can reap a second Emmy win, and like what I said, this win is definitely justified if it happens. She also has a bigger chance of winning here than reaping a second Lead Actress Comedy win, so if voters really want to reward her, they might vote for her here. On the other hand, Maya Rudolph also poses as a threat having the longest screentime and most memorable characters played in her episode (her Beyonce skit is Emmy worthy already!). If there happens to be a vote splitting between them, then expect Dot Marie Jones to prevail here with her serious and dramatic episode. But for now, I’m sticking with Maya Rudolph.

Prediction: Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”
Dark Horse: Maya Rudolph, “Saturday Night Live”

Complete Rankings:
1. Rudolph
2. McCarthy
3. Jones
4. Bates
5. Banks
6. Cho

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

I better start these posts, so I cna make it before the Emmy ceremony next month. Here we go with the first category for the year:

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Will Arnett, “30 Rock” (Idiots Are People, Part Three)
• Bobby Cannavale, “Nurse Jackie” (Disneyland Sucks)
• Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live” (Host: Jimmy Fallon)
• Michael J. Fox, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Larry vs. Michael J Fox)
• Jon Hamm, “30 Rock” (Live From Studio 6H)
• Greg Kinnear, “Modern Family” (Me? Jealous?)

This is a pretty safe group of nominees combining expected newbies and returning nominees for the Comedy Guest Actor category this year. Bobby Cannavale got a surprising nod for the Nurse Jackie’s fourth season, and since his guest stint is season-long, it does not give him any favors when they’re required to submit a single tape only. In “Disneyland Sucks“, while he gets longer scenes that were indeed funny, it does not match the material by all the other nominees. Voters tend to like Will Arnett in 30 Rock so much, since they’ve nominated it for the fourth time already, and while he gets a better tape this year via “Idiots Are People, Part Three“, it does not scream Emmy winning, and this category is not kind enough to overdue nominees. Greg Kinnear‘s guest stint on Modern Family resulted to a consecutive Emmy nom for him. He doesn’t do much in his tape, and his role is pretty reactionary though if voters find the whole situation funny, that’s the only way I see them eliciting votes. Another 30 Rock star who got nominated here is Jon Hamm who was already nominated here two times in 2009 and 2010. In his tape “Live From Studio 6H”, he gets to play various characters including a black face actor and a misogynist news anchor. He gets to do a lot of physical comedy and I can see this clicking to voters. Michael J. Fox earns both comedic and dramatic guest acting nominations this year, and he has a pretty good chance of winning at both. For comedy, his nomination comes from Curb Your Enthusiasm, and the season finale episode “Larry vs. Michael J. Fox“, we saw him playing arch nemesis to Larry David outwitting each other. The last nominee is Jimmy Fallon going back and hosting Saturday Night Live; a show he was once a part of. The chemistry was there and the material was handled smoothly in one of the best episodes of the season.

In the end, I see it as a race between Fox and Fallon, but since Fallon was in every skit of his submitted episode, I give him the edge and my prediction in this category. I won’t be surprised if Fox pulls the win though, but I’m pretty confident with Fallon.

Prediction: Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live”
Spoiler: Michael J. Fox, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”

Complete Rankings:
1. Fallon
2. Fox
3. Hamm
4. Kinnear
5. Arnett
6. Cannavale