Archive for the ‘academy awards 2013. 85th oscar predictions’ Tag

85th Academy Awards Winner Predictions   1 comment

So it is finally coming to an end. After months and months of continuous debates, endless discussions, and statistic searching, the Oscars will finally be handed out in two days. To say that this season has been one hell of a ride is an understatement. When the precursors don’t mean much and the tides change every other day, it’s really difficult to settle on a concrete prediction. On one hand, it makes for a really exciting and engaging Oscar ceremony; on the other, it makes prognosticators like me look foolish, as I’ll see first hand how I’ll miserably fail at this. As of this writing, I’m still not settled with Directing, Supporting Actor, and Production Design. And if I write this post on some other day, I’ll probably be writing another set of predictions. But I guess, I’ll go with this group as my final predictions for the 85th Academy Awards.

best picture

BEST PICTURE

Amour
Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

With how crazy this whole Oscar season this been, there’s really nothing impossible now. But then again, it seems that Argo is in it to win it. The sweep that it did definitely makes up for its lack of Directing nom. As a matter of fact, it has been his official kickstarter to its steamroll this season. It also benefits with the way of ranking the votes in this category; this makes a safe (despite being, yes, asolid thriller) choice is likely to get the upper higher rankings rather than a movie with visible detractors (almost any other movie in the line up). Not even Brokeback Mountain  steamrolled and overperformed this way, so second Oscars for Ben Affleck and George Clooney are almost guaranteed. However, I’m still open to the possibility of Harvey Weinstein’s Silver Linings Playbook campaign, so it might give them some votes, but I don’t have the balls to predict that.

PREDICTION: ”Argo”
SPOILER: “Silver Linings Playbook”

best director

BEST DIRECTOR

Michael Haneke, Amour
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Now that there’s no Ben Affleck in this list, it goes the predictions a little bit cray cray. Spielberg seems to be the safe and logical choice, but I haven’t seen an Oscar campaign go down in swindles just like what happened to Lincoln. It just saturated the whole campaign period for their team. I don’t think they’d give Spielberg a second Oscar for Directing for them to deny it again the Best Picture just like what happened in 1998. I’m currently using the same logic to Ang Lee’s chances, seeing they denied Brokeback Mountain the top prize, but then again, seeing that Life of Pi is a director’s masterpiece, and since he’s the only one who sailed to all these precursors, then the support might actually be there.  I’m also considering to go with David O. Russell. Hollywood loves ’em comeback stories, and his impressive feat of directing seven nominated performances (and at least three wins by Sunday) in his last two features might show support from the largest Oscar branch. I switch back and forth to Ang Lee and David O. Russell, so might as well go with Lee. He seems to be the more respected of the two, and it makes more sense since Life of Pi will sweep the techs and is likely to be the biggest winner on Sunday.

PREDICTION: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
ALTERNATE: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

actor

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

It’s even crazy to consider doing a long post about it, but this is Daniel Day Lewis to lose. Even non-Lincoln fans vocally admire this performance. It’s such a shame that this year produced an embarrassment of riches when it comes to lead actor performances, and they’d have to resort to giving a third Oscar to an actor, but in this case, I’d say I’d totally give in as well. In Lincoln, Day Lewis literally disappeared into the role. That’s a big FU to all the criticisms barred against him for being an over the top method actor. Since this is a historic third Oscar for Best Actor, might as well give it to an actually deserving performance, and Daniel Day Lewis fits the bill.

PREDICTION: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
ALTERNATE: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

actress

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

While I personally am happy with the sudden surge of love for Emmanuelle Riva (and if she wins, it’ll be one of my most favorite Oscar moments, BAR NONE), it’s not enough to overcome the buzz that current it girl Jennifer Lawrence has already amassed during this whole season. She’s won the Globe, SAG, a critics prize, and three BFCAs. She’s backed up by Harvey, and is a young hot babe whose on her second nomination in a film the Academy showered with nominations. If it’s a battle between 22 year old rising star and an 84 year old French actress, expect the demographic Oscar voters to root for the hot one.

PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
ALTERNATE: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

supporting actor

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Definitely the most confusing acting category of the year, I see it going in three directions. Christoph Waltz won both the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. In any other year, that would have been enough to seal the deal. But he just won three years ago for a role mostly deemed as similar to his nominated performance, so it’s seen as a too soon to give a second Oscar. Robert de Niro despite not winning anything at all, is a Hollywood legend whose last win was  way back in 1981. It will be 31 years, and Oscar voters then are definitely different from Oscar voters now. If there’s a sudden surge of love for Silver Linings Playbook, expect him to join the love train. After all, Harvey campaigned the hardest for him and Lawrence. However, I’d probably go for Tommy Lee Jones. He still seems to be the safe choice. He played a “real” person, has lots of baity monologues in the film, won the SAG, and seems overdue for a second Oscar than de Niro being overdue for a third one.

PREDICTION: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
ALTERNATE: Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

supporting actress

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jackie Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

It’s so boring to talk about this category since we all know Anne Hathaway is winning this in a cakewalk. I’d probably just imagine her face if Jackie Weaver’s name was called. That’ll be her greatest acting requirement of her career. But nah. Hathaway is so Hathawin on Sunday. So I’d just hope that she keeps as it as less rehearsed as possible. Girl, you’re every inch deserving but just TONE.IT.DOWN.

PREDICTION: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
ALTERNATE: Sally Field, Lincoln

original screenplay

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

It’s funny that Mark Boal won the WGA when in fact, he’s definitely third best in show. This one is between Quentin Tarantino and Michael Haneke. Tarantino won both the Globe and BAFTA, and is in seen as overdue for a second Oscar as well, but with all the love Amour received, it seems this is Michael Haneke’s to lose. Since he won’t get to take home the Oscar if Amour wins Foreign Language Film, this is his only shot at bagging one home.

PREDICTION: Michael Haneke, Amour
ALTERNATE: Quention Tarantino, Django Unchained

adapted screenplay

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi

Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

For a while, I think it was Tony Kushner all the way. I think that he will be remain unscathed despite the deteriorating buzz for Lincoln. And then David O. Russell won the BAFTA. Then Chris Terrio won the WGA. Since I’m predicting Argo to win the Best Picture Oscar, it’ll probably be one of the categories it will sweep along the way. I’m still holding on the fact that Lincoln is in the race, at least in the Adapted Screenplay category. But the love for David O. Russell might go here instead of the Best Director category, so he can still mount a win as well.

PREDICTION: Chris Terrio, Argo
ALTERNATE: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

foreign language film

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Amour (Austria)
Kon-tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)

In the history of foreign language films being nominated for Best Picture, only one managed to lose the Foreign Language Film category. That is a pretty solid statistic to rely on, so I’m basing my Amour prediction on that. I’m aware of the slight backlash that it received from the FLF committee, but it’s already far and away i the competition that I doubt it will affect the overall votes. With no Intouchables on the list, I’d expect Weinstein to work double hard and push his other bet in the race. After all, Kon-Tiki is based on an Academy award winning documentary in 1951.

PREDICTION: Amour (Austria)
ALTERNATE: 
Kon-tiki (Norway)

animated feature

ANIMATED FEATURE

Brave
Frankenweenie
Paranorman
The Pirates: Legend of the Misfits
Wreck it Ralph

This one is between Brave and Wreck it Ralph, as they have been sharing the spread of all the precursor groups this season. With that said, I’m expecting that the high box office returns for Ralph will do the trick over the low critical appreciation for Brave. 

PREDICTION: Wreck it Ralph
ALTERNATE: Brave

OTHER CATEGORIES:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Prediction: Life of Pi
Spoiler: Skyfall

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Prediction: Anna Karenina
Spoiler: Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
Prediction: Argo
Spoiler: Zero Dark Thirty

BEST MAKE UP AND HAIRSTYLING
Prediction: Les Miserables
Spoiler: The Hobbit

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Prediction: Life of Pi
Spoiler: Skyfall

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Prediction: “Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
Spoiler: “Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Prediction: Life of Pi
Spoiler: Anna Karenina

BEST SOUND EDITING
Prediction: Life of Pi
Spoiler: Argo

BEST SOUND MIXING
Prediction: Les Miserables
Spoiler: Life of Pi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Prediction: Life of Pi
Spoiler: The Hobbit

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Prediction: Searching for Sugar Man
Spoiler: The Gatekeepers

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Prediction: Open Heart
Spoiler: Mondays at Racine

BEST ANIMATED SHORTS
Prediction: Paperman
Spoiler: Adam and Dog

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Prediction: Curfew
Spoiler: Death of a Shadow

Final Oscar tally: Life of Pi – 6; Argo, Les Miserables – 3; Lincoln, Amour – 2; Silver Linings Playbook, Anna Karenina, Wreck it Ralph, Skyfall – 1

Happy Oscar day everybody!

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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