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65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

actor comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development[WRONG]
2006:
Steve Carell, “The OfficeWRONG]
2007:
Steve Carell, “The Office[WRONG]
2008:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2009:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock[CORRECT]
2010:
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm[WRONG]
2011:
Steve Carell, “The Office” [WRONG]
2012: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” [WRONG]

Now it’s time to dissect the last acting category of the year, and at the forefront are the six funny men of comedy. This is a fairly weak category, though I love the inclusions of Jason Bateman who managed to get in despite the lacking presence of Arrested Development this season and Matt LeBlanc since I’m a big Friends fanboy, and I love seeing them rewarded for anything post-show. Sadly though, there’s not enough space left for New Girl‘s Jake Johnson who was lauded for his career best work last season. Anyway, ;et’s go to the nominees.

Alec Baldwin is in for the last time for his stint in 30 Rock. After winning in 2008 and 2009, he stopped submitting competitive episode (at times because he want co-nominees to win or maybe he stopped bothering at all). The same can be said for his submission this year A Goon’s Deed in a Weary World, where in he’s in the B storyline of the episode. With that said, Baldwin is still a force of a name in television and he’s the only person who won seven straight years at the SAGs. So that might account to something.

Oscar nominee Don Cheadle receives a second consecutive nod for House of Lies. Truth be told, I’m not the biggest fan of the show, as its humor simply doesn’t stick with me. However, I have to give him credit for coming up with a submission that at least made me chuckled. It’s a vast improvement from his submission last year. I’d still put him dead last though and stick by the idea that he just got in for his movie star status.

Surviving the Arrested Development snub is lead star Jason Bateman. Bateman benefits from the character-centric nature of the season, as he shines with the most screentime in this category. As for his submission Flight of the Phoenix, I think it did not do him any favors that his Michael is far from the typical Michael that we’ve seen from the past season. In this one, he’s clingy, desperate and unlikable which does not work well in his favor.

Aside from Alec Baldwin, Jim Parsons  is also gunning for his third Emmy win in this category. But unlike Jack Donaghy, Parsons clearly knows what to submit. He went for a throwback drunk episode which puts him the win n this category in 2010 for The Pants Alternative. By submitting The Habitation Configuration, that makes him an easy frontrunner in this category.

Matt LeBlanc is in a different situation altogether. Despite gaining no buzz for the show, they still manage to reap nods for writing and acting the same way they did two years ago. That says something with how popular the show is towards the people that matter (the nominating and voting people).  In his submission, he was in a conflicted situation as he force to give his agent a car, until the secret behind his act was revealed. LeBlanc played this role well, and I think it’s unwise to underestimate him.

And then there’s Louis CK. As each year passes, the love for his show Louie increases. Just for this year alone, he collected a total of nine nominations. With that said, I don’t know how big of a hard on the Emmys has on him since the nature of his show has a history of not winning for acting. If another Emmy favorite Larry David can’t snatch one for Curb Your Enthusiasm, then I’m adamant that they’ll lean to Louis CK’s performance. I really can’t think of a solid way to describe his chances.

I guess in the end it’s a battle of the first one to enter the three time category winners. On one hand, there’s Alec Baldwin who’s on his last shot to do so. I don’t think Baldwin can be stopped by a weak submission especially since this is their last shot to reward him. However, Jim Parsons is enjoying an all time high of critical and commercial love for the show. If anything, he can be the token recognition of Emmys acknowledging the show. But then again, I’m pretty sure 30 Rock is bound to win something, and since it did not happen with Stritch, and I’m thisclose to moving Louis CK as my winner in Writing, then this category makes sense. I go back and forth with the two, but I guess I’d go with Baldwin.

Prediction: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
Runner-Up: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory

Full Rankings:
1. Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
2. Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory
3. Louis CK, “Louie
4. Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
5. Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development
6. Don Cheadle, “Louie

You can see my other Emmy predictions here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” (Live from Studio 6H)
• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies” (Gods of Dangerous Financial Instruments)
• Louis CK, “Louie” (Duckling)
• Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men” (Frodo’s Headshots)
• Larry David “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Palestinian Chicken)
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” (The Werewolf Transformation)

Alec Baldwin is on his sixth nomination and had won twice already. While his episode Live From Studio 6H is a good one where he gets to do various characters that’s reminiscent of his winning episode, it’s not a surefire material that will give him his third Emmy. Also, the fact that 30 Rock has been some sort of a perennial nominee but not the Emmys choice for any win (they have been empty handed the last two years) gives him a disadvantage. Maybe they’ll wait for 30 Rock’s swansong last year for him and the rest of the show to be competitive again. Don Cheadle is the newbie nominee in this group, and I think it’s a result of how weak the options were this year. House of Lies isn’t necessarily a funny show, nor his submission, the pilot, has anything new to offer. I’d even put this role in the veins of David Duchovny in Californication and Thomas Jane in Hung which were both snubbed for an Emmy nomination. His exception for a nomination is a combination of a weak competition plus his star status, but not even his Emmyless state will help him all the way to the podium this year. With Leblanc coming back next year, plus a plethora of new shows, I’d be surprised if he even managed a consecutive nomination. Louis CK will surely be the winner if we based it on whole season performances. However, given his submission “Duckling”, I think it can be a hit or miss for the voters. On one hand, he gets to have 40 minutes of screentime in his episode, and this one targets more of the heart than the laughs with him doing stand up comedy for the troops. On the other hand, there isn’t any LOL moments that one expects to see given the double screentime his episode had. I think he has some other episodes that were more competitive than this one, but its not wise to dismiss his chances altogether. However, with all his other nominations (a record breaking SEVEN!), he can easily be a victim of vote splitting among voters where they will reward him with an Emmy. After six consecutive nods and one victory in the Supporting category, Jon Cryershifts to Lead status and easily gets a seventh nomination. His episode is classic Emmy bait as he gets to lose his mind and suffers a breakdown with everything happening around him. This has a combination of physical comedy, one liners, and I see him very competitive since no one submitted a sure fire winning submission. If anything, dislike towards his show is what hinders people from dismissing his chances because he is so in the race. The Emmys love his Alan Harper role so much (to the point they nominated it last year over Barney Stinson), and with a surprise SAG nom earlier this year, I can see him winning all the way. Maybe it’s because they don’t love actors portraying themselves but Larry David hasn’t still won an Emmy for his performance in the show despite him being continuously nominated. Two years ago, I predicted him with that Seinfeld episode which I took as a sign that Emmy voters will eat up, and yet he still lost to Jim Parsons. This year, he again submitted the show’s best episode, and if overdue status is to be considered, then he’ll definitely have a chance again. He is funny in his submitted episode, but it does not cater to everyone and might be divisive in general. Voters seem to love Jim Parsons‘s Sheldon Cooper so much to the point that he won against Steve Carell’s last year, and despite strong submissions from a should be three-peat of Alec Baldwin, a last for Tony Shalhoub, and a Seinfeld ep from Larry David two years ago. This year, Parsons submitted an episode that highlights the wackiness of Sheldon with him not wanting to get a haircut from others because his usual barber is in the hospital. It features him suffering a semi-breakdwon while playing the bongos during midnight and visiting the barber with scissors on his hands. It’s not as strong as his first win, but I see voters checking his name off here.

There is no standout performance per se, so we might be in for a surprise, but the past four years led us to wins in traditional sitcoms. I see the trend happening this year between Jon Cryer and Jim Parsons; however, I’m giving the edge to Parsons to mark a threepeat in this category.

Prediction: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Dark Horse: Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men”

Complete Rankings:
1. Parsons
2. Cryer
3. David
4. CK
5. Baldwin
6. Cheadle