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68th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 2: TV Movie and Limited Series   Leave a comment

Before Anthony Anderson and Lauren Graham announce the 68th Primetime Emmy Awards nominees on July 14, here’s a preview on who can get nominated come Thursday. Yesterday, we tackled the Reality and Variety Series, this time the focus is on the TV Movies and the Limited Series. The past few years saw the rise in the limited series genre, now even eclipsing the acclaim of the current dramas on the boob tube. This year, we can have a rehash of the 2013 race when it’s Ryan Murphy vs. Fargo. Here are my predictions in all eight longform series categories.

tv movie

OUTSTANDING TELEVISION MOVIE:
• All the Way (HBO)
• Confirmation (HBO)
• The Dresser (Starz)
• Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (BBC)
• A Very Murray Christmas (Netflix)

Sixth nominee: Luther (BBC America)

While the Jay Roach political drama has this Emmy wrapped up already, let’s discuss which ones will join it as co-nominees. As for starters, there’s the other HBO political film Confirmation, which is basically the runner-up HBO TV movie of the year. We always have those (Hemingway & Gellhorn to Game Change, Taking Chance to Grey GardensYou Don’t Know Jack to Temple Grandin.. you get the point). After its surprise win haul back in 2013 taking home three major Emmys, they’ll surely nominate the new Sherlock special too. Expect the Emmys to fall in love with The Dresser, albeit it being on Starz; after all, it stars two acting veterans, an Oscar-winning material, and it’s British. As for that last spot, considering how much Netflix is great at campaigning, I’m going with that A Very Murray Christmas from Emmy winner Bill Murray.

miniseries

OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES:
• American Crime (ABC)
• Fargo (FX)
• The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
• The Night Manager (AMC)
• Roots (History Channel)

Sixth nominee: Show Me A Hero (HBO)

As mentioned, the big story here is The People v. O.J. Simpson, which I expect to dominate the nominations. It was critically acclaimed, it had Ryan Murphy in a very prominent case in Murica, and it’s star-studded. Considering how much Ryan Murphy’s pilot seasons always go well with Emmy nods, expect this to be a shoo-in here. Not to be left behind of course is another FX gem, Fargo, whose first season won the Emmy of this category too. It premiering last year and being more subtle than the showy OJ showcase could cost it wins, but not nominations. ABC’s American Crime (not to be confused with American Crime Story — we saw what you did there, Ryan Murphy) is also poised to come back. After all, it’s ABC’s only push here and had a decent showing with the nods last year. Roots is one of the most iconic and memorable shows in TV history and is still an Emmy record holder, so expect the new version to at least be acknowledged with a nom. That last spot is tricky — there’s HBO’s Show Me A Hero which feels like an afterthought at this stage, but it’s HBO’s only shot here plus it stars one of Hollywood’s current it boys Oscar Isaac. But there’s also AMC’s The Night Manager which they are campaigning aggressively, stars Tom Hiddleston and multiple Emmy nominee Hugh Laurie. I can see it both go ways, but for now let’s stick with the latter.

longform lead actor

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Bryan Cranston, “All the Way”
• Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
• Cuba Gooding Jr., “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Ian McKellen, “The Dresser”
• Courtney B. Vance, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Patrick Wilson, “Fargo”

Seventh nominee: Oscar Isaac, “Show Me A Hero”

Talk about an insanely competitive category. You literally can fill this group with at least a dozen names. To be frank, I think only Bryan Cranston is a lock here. His LBJ performance which previously netted him a Tony will likely join an Emmy as well (will Oscar follow?). To a certain extent, I think Courtney B. Vance is also safe considering he’s the breakout performer among the lads in the show. Benedict Cumberbatch pulled off an upset in an equally strong category back in 2013 (against Mark Ruffalo, Idris Elba, and Fargo guys) so it’s not impossible for him to pull one off again this time. Then this is where it gets tricky. Patrick Wilson is probably my fourth, though the passive, subtle role can somehow hurt him especially in an insane category like this one. That said, I’m sticking with him. I also think they won’t let the opportunity of nominating any of The Dresser actors pass by. It’s tough between Oscar winner Anthony Hopkins and Sir Ian McKellen, so you can just go eitherway (maybe even both get in?), and for now I went with McKellen. Cuba Gooding Jr. just feels like he’ll be a part of the OJ lovefest, and considering he’s playing the titular character, I’d go predict him as well. Watch out for Oscar Isaac though considering how much he’s an in-demand actor now. Other notable names to consider are The Night Manager‘s Tom Hiddleston, Bill Murray in A Very Murray Christmas, Idris Elba in Luther, and even Sir Ben Kingsley in Tut.

longform lead actress

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Kirsten Dunst, “Fargo”
• Felicity Huffman, “American Crime”
• Rachel McAdams, “True Detective”
• Audra McDonald, “Lady Day at Emersons Bar and Grill”
• Sarah Paulson, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Kerry Washington, “Confirmation”

Seventh nominee: Blythe Danner, “Madoff”

Unlike its male counterpart, the Lead Actress category is wider than usual. Of course, one expects that Confirmation‘s Kerry Washington, Fargo‘s Kristen Dunst, and People v. OJ Simpson‘s Sarah Paulson are all but sure now. After that, there’s Emmy winner Audra McDonald for her HBO special too. We can also see two American Crime actresses in this category, but it’s safer to go with Emmy  winner Felicity Huffman. As for that last spot, there’s her co-star Lili Taylor, and Emmy favorite Blythe Danner in Madoff, but let’s go daring a bit and predict that her Oscar luck would extend here so I say Rachel McAdams for True Detective. longform supp actor

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Sterling K. Brown, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Ted Danson, “Fargo”
• Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
• Hugh Laurie, “The Night Manager”
• David Schwimmer, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Bokeem Woodbine, “Fargo”

Seventh nominee: John Travolta, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”

What it it with male acting categories that they are really jampacked this year? The Supporting one is full of potential categories, and there’s a chance that it can go The Normal Heart way with four bids in it. That said, I’ll go predictable and include only two: Sterling K. Brown, and David Schwimmer’s TV comeback. That said, if they go star heavy, there’s John Travolta and Nathan Lane, both of whom can benefit from name-checking from voters. Martin Freeman won this category too back in 2013 against The Normal Heart group, so unless the lukewarm reviews for The Abominable Bride catches on, then he’s safe here. Ted Danson is a TV veteran, but he’s no easy bid as well, though being the veteran among Fargo supporting actors might help him. I might also be personally bias here with my prediction of Bokeem Woodbine, also from Fargo, but they nominated Alison Tolman two years ago, so there’s a precedent. Lastly, if The Night Manager is indeed a successful campaign, still Emmyless Hugh Laurie can sneak in a nomination for this as well. That said there’s also Forest Whitaker for Roots, Frank Langella for All the Way, and Denis O’Hare of AHS: Hotel to consider.

longform supp actress

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Hotel”
• Connie Britton, “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story”
• Regina King, “American Crime”
• Melissa Leo, “All the Way”
• Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Hotel”
• Jean Smart, “Fargo”

Seventh nominee: Olivia Colman, “The Night Manager”

I might be underestimating American Horror Story: Hotel this year, but not in this category. I’ve dismissed it in previous years only for it to come back stronger, though Jessica Lange’s absence really hurt it. That said, double nods for Kathy Bates and Sarah Paulson are still safe bets. Speaking of safe bets, Emmy veteran Jean Smart’s cold, conniving matriarch in Fargo might even be competitive for the win. Meanwhile, a lesser known actress would definitely not be in contention considering the small of the role, but it’s Oscar and Emmy winner Melissa Leo in a supportive wife role in All the Way so it’s safe to say she’s getting in. Lastly, to continue my narrative of strong OJ Simpson love, I’m predicting that the scene-chewing performance of Connie Britton will give her another nod (I mean she got in for Nashville).

longform directing

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• All the Way (Jay Roach)
• Fargo, “Loplop” (Keith Gordon)
• The Night Manager (Susanne Bier)
• The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “From The Ashes of Tragedy” (Ryan Murphy)
• The People V. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “The Race Card” (John Singleton)
• Roots, “Night Four” (Bruce Beresford)

Seventh nominee: Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (Douglas MacKinnon)

I went safe with my predictions here — only two OJ episodes, one by Ryan Murphy and one by John Singleton, then Jay Roach will surely get in as well. There’s a Fargo episode in between, from the same one who pulled off the upset win back in the first season, and then there’s Oscar winner Susanne Bier in a well-campaigned British program. Last one is between a Sherlock episode and a Roots finale from a popular 80s movie director, and since I think Sherlock won’t go as perfectly lucky as the last time, I give the edge to Roots.

longform writing

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:
• All the Way (Robert Schenkkan)
• American Crime, “Episode Seven” (John Ridley)
• Fargo, “Palindrome” (Noah Hawley)
• The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “From The Ashes of Tragedy” (Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski)
• The People V. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia” (D.V. DeVincentis)
• Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (Steven Moffat & Mark Gatiss)

Seventh nominee: The Night Manager (David Farr)

Like in Directing, went safe here by including only two OJ Simpson episodes, All the Way, and a Fargo one too. But instead of The Night Manager, I replaced it with another British series — Sherlock considering it won this category the last time it contended. And instead of Roots,  we have Oscar winner John Ridley’s penned American Crime episode to round up the group.

Next up, the LOL shows of the comedy categories as we continue our 68th Emmy nomination prediction series tomorrow.

Talk to me about it on Twitter: @nikowl

 

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73rd Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

The Golden Globes weekend has officially started! In two days, the first televised awards ceremony of the season begins with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) announces their winners of the 73rd Golden Globe Awards in a night filled with chocolates, booze, and stars. This year, Denzel Washington is the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille distinction, as Ricky Gervais comes back as the host after three years. With Tom Hanks to Mel Gibson, and Channing Tatum to Eva Longoria expected to attend, let’s predict who will end up heading to the Globes stage to give their awards speeches on Sunday (Monday here in the Philippines) in all 25 categories.

FILM:

film drama picture

Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Carol”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Revenant”
“Room”
“Spotlight”

PREDICTION: Spolight. Despite showing some weakness, this still remains as the strongest contenders among the dramatic nominees here. It will still win this category pretty easily, and there’s a chance it can only end up winning this one ala 12 Years a Slave two years ago.

ALTERNATE: Mad Max: Fury Road. This can basically be any of the films here. Carol, albeit leading the nominations is a weak contender here and can even be emptyhanded. It can also be The Revenant after snubbing eventual Oscar winner Alejandro Inarritu last year. But Mad Max is that populist and critical choice that the Golden Globes are known for.

film drama actor

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Bryan Cranston (“Trumbo”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)
Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”)
Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”)
Will Smith (“Concussion”)

PREDICTION: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”). Unlike the Oscars, the Globes haven’t been cruel to Leo winning twice in the past already. That said, being the Oscar frontrunner helps him win his third Globe come Sunday.

ALTERNATE: Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”). Fassbender is a Golden Globe winner waiting to happen, and he’s now on his third nomination in five years. In a Leo-less field, he’s probably sweeping now.

film drama actress

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Cate Blanchett (“Carol”)
Brie Larson (“Room”)
Rooney Mara (“Carol”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”)
Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)

PREDICTION: Brie Larson (“Room”). Room overperformed with nominations at the Globes this year, which makes me think that Larson got this one.

ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”). Watch out for Saoirse Ronan though who’s every inch in this race and can still steal the momentum from Larson.

film comedy

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
“The Big Short”
“Joy”
“The Martian”
“Spy”
“Trainwreck”

PREDICTION: “The Big Short”. With The Big Short only getting stronger as each day passes, it can start its Best Picture road by winning this category on Sunday.

ALTERNATE: “The Martian”. The Globes has been into some hot water after placing this film in the Comedy genre, so I think it will somehow affect its chances here if it ends up winning. As a reminder, the film’s comedy placement won only by a single vote so there’s that.

film comedy actor

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale (“The Big Short”)
Steve Carell (“The Big Short”)
Matt Damon (“The Martian”)
Al Pacino (“Danny Collins”)
Mark Ruffalo (“Infinitely Polar Bear”)

PREDICTION: Matt Damon (“The Martian”). Considering that Matt Damon hasn’t won a Golden Globe yet for acting, this makes sense as a place to reward The Martian especially if it ain’t winning Best Picture.

ALTERNATE: Steve Carell (“The Big Short”). While there’s still a path for Carell to win, the fact that they placed Christian Bale here will siphon some votes among The Big Short fans here.

film comedy actress

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”)
Melissa McCarthy (“Spy”)
Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck”)
Maggie Smith (“The Lady in the Van”)
Lily Tomlin (“Grandma”)

PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”). This category feels like the dire one last year, and Lawrence is still likely the only Oscar contender here (yup, we’re still not counting on the Dame), so maybe an easy #3 for Lawgend.

ALTERNATE: Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck”). Hollywood’s it girl for 2015 is off to have an even greater 2016, and the Globes love that kind of coronation so this win is really possible.

film supp actor

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Paul Dano (“Love & Mercy”)
Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”)
Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”)
Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”)
Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”)

PREDICTION: Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”). Rylance is an unlikely Golden Globe winner, but at this stage he’s really the strongest contender so I say why not?

ALTERNATE: Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”). This type of rewarding a veteran and even a huge moviestar is such a Globes-y thing to do, so count on the HFPA starfuckers to throw him a moment.

film supp actress

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Jane Fonda (“Youth”)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”)
Helen Mirren (“Trumbo”)
Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”)
Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)

PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”). They love Alicia Vikander so much that they nominated her twice, and considering she has no chance in Drama Lead Actress, they’ll reward her here instead.

ALTERNATE: Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”). The Globes are more appreciative of Tarantino performances, and this can signal that she’s still in the race like the trajectory of Christoph Waltz in 2012.

film directing

Best Director – Motion Picture
Todd Haynes (“Carol”)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“The Revenant”)
Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”)
George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)
Ridley Scott (“The Martian”)

PREDICTION: George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”). Surprisingly enough, this is Miller’s first ever Globe nomination so this can be his lifetime award already from the HFPA.

ALTERNATE: Ridley Scott (“The Martian”). Then there’s three-time nominee Ridley Scott who also hasn’t won here yet, and while he has already directed a Globe BP winning movie, Miller has the stronger “technical directorial achievement” narrative.

film screenplay

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Emma Donoghue (“Room”)
Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (“Spotlight”)
Charles Randolph, Adam McKay (“The Big Short”)
Aaron Sorkin (“Steve Jobs”)
Quentin Tarantino (“The Hateful Eight”)

PREDICTION: Charles Randolph, Adam McKay (“The Big Short”). Never underestimate this contender. Like what I’ve said, it’s just on an upward trajectory for now. Considering the last three wins here are upsets, I’ll give this duo the edge.

ALTERNATE: Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (“Spotlight”). It’s a battle between the two Best Picture contenders, but Spotlight has the edge in terms of winning more awards in Screenplay thus far.

film animated

Best Animated Feature Film
“Anomalisa”
“The Good Dinosaur”
“Inside Out”
“The Peanuts Movie”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie”

PREDICTION: “Inside Out”. This remains the critical pick of the year, and with huge box office performance to boot. So I’d say it’s still ahead.

ALTERNATE: “Anomalisa”. This isn’t a Globes type of pick, but it has the critics behind it, and the HFPA are more welcoming to stop motion type of animation.

film foreign language film

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
“The Brand New Testament”
“The Club”
“The Fencer”
“Mustang”
“Son of Saul”

PREDICTION: “Son of Saul”. This is still the frontrunner and no film has yet appeared to challenge it for the win. It has the prestige and the studio to nab this win.

ALTERNATE: “Mustang”. Probably Mustang comes the closest to an alternate, but I still see it falling short.

film score

Best Original Score
Carter Burwell (“Carol”)
Alexandre Desplat (“The Danish Girl”)
Ennio Morricone (“The Hateful Eight”)
Daniel Pemberton (“Steve Jobs”)
Ryuichi Sakamoto Alva Noto (“The Revenant”)

PREDICTION: Ennio Morricone (“The Hateful Eight”). They won’t let a year pass by without giving Harvey a win so it’s between his two films here. I’d give the edge to Ennio as he’s a veteran in this category.

ALTERNATE: Carter Burwell (“Carol”). This can be the place to reward Carol. After all, it’s rare for the top nomination earner movie to not take home at least one prize.

film song

Best Original Song
“Love Me Like You Do” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
“One Kind of Love” from “Love & Mercy”
“See You Again” from “Furious 7”
“Simple Song No. 3” from “Youth”
“Writing’s on the Wall” from “Spectre”

PREDICTION: “One Kind of Love” from “Love & Mercy”. While this has been ineligible at the Oscars, it actually makes more sense considering that most winners here tend to get snubbed there.

ALTERNATE: “See You Again” from “Furious 7”. The pop songs are probably canceling each other out, but if there’s one who can overcome this, it’s a song about a Hollywood actor who passed away.

TELEVISION:

tv drama

Best TV Series – Drama

“Empire”
“Game of Thrones”
“Mr. Robot”
“Narcos”
“Outlander”

PREDICTION: “Mr. Robot”. With the HFPA’s love for cable shows, it’s not surprising if they went with this critically loved breakout show from USA.

ALTERNATE: “Empire”. One has to go back nine years ago in 2006 when the top TV drama series went to a network show and that was for ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy. The closest comparison to how huge that show was in recent years was the Empire mania that has happened last year .

tv drama actor

Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”)
Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot”)
Wagner Moura (“Narcos”)
Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
Liev Schreiber (“Ray Donovan”)

PREDICTION: Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot”). Nine of the last 15 years here all came from freshman shows. But considering that the Globes tend to do a package deal of awarding a show + its lead actor (Homeland and Danes, Transparent and Tambor, Brooklyn Nine Nine and Samberg, Girls and Dunham and so on and so forth), Malek makes sense as the winner here.

ALTERNATE: Wagner Moura (“Narcos”). Following that pattern above, maybe its Narcos + Moura who might end up as the winners here.

tv drama actress

Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Caitriona Balfe (“Outlander”)
Viola Davis (“How to Get Away With Murder”)
Eva Green (“Penny Dreadful”)
Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”)
Robin Wright (“House of Cards”)

PREDICTION: Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”). Just like at the Emmys, I predict that this will be a Taraji vs. Viola battle. I give the edge to Taraji P. Henson though since Cookie is the type of role that Globes are made to award.

ALTERNATE: Viola Davis (“How to Get Away With Murder”). It can easily be Viola too considering she made history with her Emmy win, but for some reason the HFPA are reluctant to reward her. She lost to Meryl in 2011 despite being the frontrunner, and when she was a shoo-in here last year, she lost to Ruth Wilson of all people. Maybe the HFPA aren’t just fans of her.

tv comedy series

Best TV Series – Comedy
“Casual”
“Mozart in the Jungle”
“Orange Is the New Black”
“Silicon Valley”
“Transparent”
“Veep”

PREDICTION: “Transparent”. The last three shows who have won multiple awards here were GleeDesperate Housewives, and Sex and the City so they’re more into dramedies here, which helps current champ Transparent to go 2/2.

ALTERNATE: “Veep”. It’s surprising to think that this is the first Series nomination of Veep, but maybe its Emmy win can help it win its Globe trophy as well.

tv comedy actor

Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy
Aziz Ansari (“Master of None”)
Gael Garcia Bernal (“Mozart in the Jungle”)
Rob Lowe (“The Grinder”)
Patrick Stewart (“Blunt Talk”)
Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”)

PREDICTION: Aziz Ansari (“Master of None”). We’re sure with besties J.Law and Schumer in the crowd, the HFPA would use the said platform to give Aziz a memorable moent when he gives his speech.

ALTERNATE: Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”). That said, it can also be an easy back to back win for Jeffrey Tambor who can just dominate the awards shows with his brave performance for this show.

tv comedy actress

Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy
Rachel Bloom (“Crazy Ex Girlfriend”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Scream Queens”)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”)
Gina Rodriguez (“Jane the Virgin”)
Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”). I guess we can consider that the HFPA aren’t just into Veep at all.Not even her one-two punch of film and TV work two years ago ended up with a Globe win despite getting four consecutive Emmy wins already. But this race is a weak one, and with the show getting nominated as well, maybe she can finally inch a win.

ALTERNATE: Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”). Jamie Lee Curtis makes sense as an alternate, but Scream Queens is too flop of a show that even HFPA won’t bite. So I guess they’d probably give it to Lily Tomlin who’s a double nominee that night!

tv longform

Best TV Movie or Limited-Series
“American Crime”
“American Horror Story: Hotel”
“Fargo”
“Flesh and Bone”
“Wolf Hall”

PREDICTION: “Fargo”. After their surprise victory last year, then a 2/2 is indeed possible knowing that it received the same, if not more, love this year.

ALTERNATE: “Wolf Hall”. But then sometimes, they just want to embrace their British love and award this equally acclaimed series which got the same nominations as Fargo.

tv longform actor

Best Actor in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Idris Elba (“Luther”)
Oscar Isaac (“Show Me a Hero”)
David Oyelowo (“Nightingale”)
Mark Rylance (“Wolf Hall”)
Patrick Wilson (“Fargo”)

PREDICTION: Oscar Isaac (“Show Me a Hero”). This is the closest that the Globes can ride on the Star Wars wave, and Isaac is a breakthrough star waiting to happen so maybe he wins here?

ALTERNATE: Patrick Wilson (“Fargo”). We know the HFPA loves Idris but he has been rewarded for this role already. Maybe Mark Rylance but I have him pegged in Film Supporting Actor already. So that leaves me with Wilson here as the alternate.

tv longform actress

Best Actress in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Kirsten Dunst (“Fargo”)
Lady Gaga (“American Horror Story: Hotel”)
Sarah Hay (“Flesh & Bone”)
Felicity Huffman (“American Crime”)
Queen Latifah (“Bessie”)

PREDICTION: Kirsten Dunst (“Fargo”). I predict that Fargo is winning an acting one alongside its Series win, and rewarding Kirsten Dunst makes more sense than Wilson in that more competitive race.

ALTERNATE: Queen Latifah (“Bessie”). Everyone’s predicting Lady Gaga just for the sheer “Globesness” of it, but I think the HFPA is serious about being taken seriously again, so I don’t think they’d go that road. Queen Latifah makes more sense as an alternate.

tv supp actor

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Limited-Series or TV Movie
Alan Cumming (“The Good Wife”)
Damian Lewis (“Wolf Hall”)
Ben Mendelsohn (“Bloodline”)
Tobias Menzies (“Outlander”)
Christian Slater (“Mr. Robot”)

PREDICTION: Tobias Menzies (“Outlander”). The surge of love for Outlander would not go home unrewarded, as I think Menzies’ very challenging dual role would end up with a Globe win for him.

ALTERNATE: Christian Slater (“Mr. Robot”). Slater makes sense as the runner-up here, as I don’t think Mr. Robot is going 3/3.

tv supp actress

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Limited-Series, or TV Movie
Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”)
Joanne Froggatt (“Downton Abbey”)
Regina King (“American Crime”)
Judith Light (“Transparent”)
Maura Tierney (“The Affair”)

PREDICTION:Regina King (“American Crime”). After that surprising Emmy win back in September, I can see the Globes following suit with a win here.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”). Aduba’s upset loss last year reminded me of when Jane Lynch lost the first time in 2010 only to win the succeeding year. Aduba can still follow suit to this.

So what are you predicting this year to win at the Globes? Happy Golden Globes weekend!

Talk to me about it by tweeting me: @nikowl

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Leading Actress in a Limited Series or Movie   Leave a comment

longform actress

We reach the last acting category for the longform acting ones, as we discuss the leading ladies of the past year. All of them Oscar nominated with three of them Best Actress winners from the 1990s. Let’s begin.

Emma Thompson once again sneaked an Emmy nomination basically without any campaign at all. This time, it’s for the live rendition of Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street: Live From the Lincoln Center. This reminded me of Thompson’s nomination for The Song of Lunch. I doubt she’d even bother attending, but then this just won Outstanding Special Class Program at last night’s Creative Emmys, so that might mean that it has its followers.

Pulling off a surprise win last year is Jessica Lange over supposed frontrunner Cicely Tyson for her work in American Horror Story: Coven. This time around, Lange is nominated again for Freak Show where she plays circus owner Elsa Mars. Lange takes a backseat during most of the season’s run, but she was front and center in the initial pilot episode including a big reveal in the end. This is also the last time they can reward Lange as she officially retired from the AHS series.

Queen Latifah receives her second career Emmy nomination seven years after her first for Best TV Movie winner Bessie. Playing the title role Bessie Smith, Latifah has probably name checked the amount of drama and acting she was required to do in this. It’s a very charming performance using Latifah’s own voice in her singing parts, and one that could have garnered her an Oscar nomination too. If Bessie continues to have a huge contingent, then this might be the expected surprise (a bit) win.

While The Honourable Woman hasn’t been as well-received as initially expected, I think Maggie Gyllenhaal has way far more support than the whole show itself. Already winning the Golden Globe back in January, Maggie carries the whole series on her back especially during the first hour of the limited series. It includes a scene of her running and doing a lot of crying, so that might siphon votes her way.

Ten years after pulling off that upset in 2005 for Desperate Housewives, Felicity Huffman is back in the Emmy race for her role as racist and defensive mom Barbara Hanlon in American Crime. Huffman does a lot of strong acting in this series, garnering critical support, but what works the best in her favor is that she’s a respected actress which commands a lot of support from her peers. That said, she’s up against equally respected (if not more) co-nominees, so chances are, this is a welcome back nod for her.

Lastly, we have SAG winner Frances McDormand rounding the group with her performance as the title role of Olive Kitteridge. McDormand gets to play a gamut of emotions and situations in this performance, one backed by the actors guild and the critics alike. Considering Olive did well in the nominations, it’s ideal to think that McDormand is on her way to achieve that E and complete the acting trifecta wins this year.

Prediction: Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge”
Alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman”

Full Rankings:
01. Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge”
02. Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman”
03. Queen Latifah, “Bessie
04. Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Freak Show
05. Felicity Huffman, “American Crime
06. Emma Thompson, “Live from the Lincoln Center: Sweeney Todd: The Demon barber of Fleet Street

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Leading Actor in a Limited Series or Movie   Leave a comment

longform actor

We’re now down to the lead acting contenders for the TV Movies and limited series of the past year. First up, it’s the gentlemen which contains an eclectic group of Oscar and Emmy champs as well as veterans and newbies.

Nominated last year in the Comedy Lead Actor category is Emmy winner Ricky Gervais for the Derek special. I’ve predicted him last year in a different category given how baity his performance in here is, but if that can’t even topple a fourth Jim Parsons win, I wonder how it would fare in a sea of more dramatic performances.

Veteran actor Mark Rylance received the biggest nomination of his career yet with his nod for Wolf Hall. Playing Thomas Cromwell in the Best Limited Series nominee gained him huge critical support. The only con I can see is that he’s not that big of a name as compared to the others in this category and that he’s pretty much lowkey in the initial episode of the series. That said, it’s one I can still see pulling off a win.

Golden Globe nominee David Oyelowo has the baitiest role in the whole group with his one-man show performance in Nightingale. Basically, he dominates the whole series as he appears in all the scenes the whole time. This one makes him a very competitive contender and his goodwill as an uprising actor definitely helps his narrative.

Playing the lead male role in Olive Kitteridge is Academy Award nominee Richard Jenkins. While the whole series (beginning with the title) belongs to Frances McDormand, Jenkins holds his own against the tour de force actress. It also helps that he’s a respected veteran who shined the most in the earlier part of the series, so while others might not finish watching it, Jenkins’ parts have been seen already.

We also have Oscar winner Timothy Hutton making a comeback with this Emmy nomination for American Crime.  As Russ Skokie, Hutton takes the dramatic gravitas of a father finding justice for his son via  avery committed performance. However, the whole series, despite being showered with lots of major nominations, have been pretty much low-key and a bit upstaged by the HBO ones.

Closing the group is another Oscar winner, 2002 Best Actor Adrien Brody, playing the icon Harry Houdini in the History adaptation of the magician’s life. Brody was nominated by the Screen Actors Guild for this performance earlier this year which means he has the support from the Academy. That said, one can feel that it’s a combination of his status as an Oscar winner and the role he plays that lead to this role.

Overall, this category isn’t as slamdunk as one  might think. Richard Jenkins can easily ride the wave of olive Kitteridge (if there really is among the Academy), but Mark Rylance usually fits the glvoe of a well supported British underdog. Plus, he has the reviews to back it up. Then there’s Oyelowo who basically is on every frame of his show and Ricky Gervais can easily be a name check beneficiary. In the end, I’ll go with Mark Rylance, but watch out as if anyone who wins this might be winning this by a hair.

Prediction: Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall”
Alternate: Richard Jenkins, “Olive Kitteridge”

Full Rankings:
01. Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall”
02. Richard Jenkins, “Olive Kitteridge”
03. David Oyelowo, “Nightingale
04. Timothy Hutton, “American Crime
05. Ricky Gervais, “Derek Special
06. Adrien Brody, “Houdini

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie   Leave a comment

longform supp actor

Let’s continue our discussion with the male counterparts as we tackle the Supporting Actor in Limited Series and TV Movies. Richard Cabral got in this year for his role as Hector Tonz in American Crime and submitting “Episode 10” where he was accused to be lying about the gun leading to his deportation to Mexico. He is very sympathetic in his episode as he was being forced to admit something he said he really didn’t do. That said, tapes seem like they don’t matter anymore,

Two seasons after his first nomination for the first season, Denis O’Hare is back for another shot, this time for American Horror Story: Freak Show. This nomination came off as a surprise considering it’s Emmy winner Michael Chiklis who has the flashier role. Playing muscle man Stanley, his submission “Pink Cupcakes”  is nothing to write home about. But then again, his surprise nomination might indicate support and the voting system favors basically out of nowhere wins.

On the other hand, his AHS co-star and co-nominee Finn Wittrock is a welcome surprise to the race and it’s one who would fare better under the tape system because “Bullseye” was a good submissions. However, he’s hurt by the fact that the new voting system favors name checking or veteran status more than newbies and younger ones. That said, he can still be in the race and who knows, might pull off the win.

Emmy winner Damian Lewis guns for his Emmy #2, now for Limited Series nominee Wolf Hall. Playing the villainous role of Henry VII of England, this is a flashy performance as one can get. It has shoutings and long monologues and confrontations and even a supposed death scene. If tapes do matter, then his submission “Crows”  would have been a sure shot. Remember though that we’re still talking about Emmy winner Damian Lewis here, only one of the two men who’ve beaten Bryan Cranston in Breaking Bad, so clearly he’s a familiar name.

Getting in for Best TV Movie winner Bessie is Michael Kenneth Williams who is Queen Latifah’s lover in the movie. It’s a pretty showy role appearing in a large chunk of the TV movie. I can’t help but think though that if another more prominent actor was in the role, it would have been a sure winner. It’s basically not because Michael Kenneth Williams’ performance wasn’t good, but that it would have given him more buzz.

Then there’s Bill Murray. His submission, the last parter for Olive Kitteridge has that emotional moment with Frances McDormand in the end, but aside from that, it’s basically a “nothing much happened” performance. However, we’re talking about Bill Murray here, and he’s the biggest and most respected name from the bunch. While that didn’t help Ed Harris in 2012, we’re living with a new voting system where Murray can easily benefit with a win.

I still don’t know who to predict here. Maybe Bill Murray can easily go all the way, though his caise is usually the type of contender that the press would usually pimp but ends up losing. So I guess I’ll go with Emmy winner Damian Lewis in a scenery chewing performance. Then there’s over the top Fin Wittrock as well considering they’ve already rewarded AHS performance in the same category before.

Prediction: Damian Lewis, “Wolf Hall”
Alternate: Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge”

Full Rankings:
01. Damian Lewis, “Wolf Hall”
02. Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge”
03. Finn Wittrock, “American Horror Story: Freak Show
04. Michael Kenneth Williams, “Bessie
05. Richard Cabral, “American Crime
06. Denis O’Hare, “American Horror Story: Freak Show

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie   Leave a comment

longform supp actress

Let’s move on to the longform acting categories which provided the surprises last year as frontrunners Mark Ruffalo, Cicely Tyson, Matt Bomer and Julia Roberts all went home empty handed. With how crazy this year’s new voring is taking shape, we’d know if the same applies for 2015. It’s a tad hilarious that this is the year where they started the tape system when tapes seem like they don’t matter anymore.

Anyway, let’s begin with the trifecta of American Horror Story: Freak Show actresses in this category – all nominated last year and all came back again this year. As Desiree Dupree, Angela Bassett played the three-breasted freak with so such commitment this season, but she’s jsut competing with two other characters who received meatier material than her. Even her submission “Show Stoppers” feature her co-nominees more than her.

Then there’s current champ Kathy Bates who plays the role of bearded woman Ethel Darling. After years of slump when it comes to Emmy wins, Bates suddenly won two Emmys in three years, and she’s very much in it again this year. While her submission “Edward Mordrake Part 1” is excellent on its own, she also shines in the extra two tapes she had from her co-nominees. Plus, she benefits from name-checking as well.

But it doesn’t get as baity as Sarah Paulson now on her fourth consecutive nomination (and still Emmyless, while we’re at it). Her role as twins Bette and Dot is probably the most challenging in this group (though Tatiana Maslany probably laughs at this sentence), and if she can’t win for this double performance, she probably won’t ever win for this whole series. And while her episode “Tupperware Massacre Party” makes her really competitive, it might be too gimmicky for other voters.

Elsewhere, there’s Zoe Kazan from Olive Kitteridge playing the role of the outgoing Denise Thibodeau. Submitting the first part of the series is a wise move, as it contains her most vital moments where she came as stronger than perceived. It has the perfect balance of comedy and drama that might appeal to voters, or the Olive Kitteridge fans among the voting bloc.

For her role as Aliyah Shadeed in American CrimeRegina King received her first Emmy career nomination. An Islam convert in the show, King’s submission “Episode Four” had her delivering a speech in the episode which is as Emmy clip as one can possibly wish. The support for American Crime is more than what was expected, so if voters aren’t in the mood for the horror story, this can be one where they’ll throw their vote to.

Closing the group is Oscar winner Mo’nique for her turn as Ma Rainey in TV Movie winner Bessie. For this performance, Mo’nique has already received lots of great ink which easily puts her as in hunt for the actual Emmy. Her biggest problem though is that she appears only in the first part of the series only to just come back in the last few moments. While this works in a usual show episode, this might be deemed far too small for a TV movie performance. Only one actress has won this category for a TV Movie in the last five years (Julia Ormond in 2010 and that’s because 4 of the 5 nominees are from TV Movies).

Sarah Paulson is the overwhelming frontrunner here between her transformative role and her overdue status, but she is a shaky frontrunner at best. Kathy Bates can easily pull off a back to back, so does Mo’nique to reach halfway of her EGOT status. I’m currently thinking Bates’ beard would be enough to pull a double Paulson come next week.

Prediction: Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show
Alternate: Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show

Full Rankings:
01. Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show
02. Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show
03. Mo’nique, “Bessie
04. Regina King, “American Crime
05. Zoe Kazan, “Olive Kitteridge
06. Angela Bassett, “American Horror Story: Freak Show

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Limited Series   Leave a comment

limited series

Let’s finish the other Series category before we move on to the acting ones. This year, while American Horror Story: Freak Show continues to increase its nomination haul (and receiving its most number of nominations with six), the genre bias is still enough to prevent it from a win. The Honourable Woman lacked the much needed momentum this year missing key categories to be considered a serious threat. On the other side, ABC renewing the American Crime franchise seemed to be a good call on their part, as it served as a launching awards pad for the network as proven by its 10 nominations including all acting categories. That said, it’s not a frontrunner to win in many of those and will be one of the cases where the nomination is its reward. One can boil it down to the usual suspects here. On the left side you have critically lauded HBO vehicle Olive Kitteridge involved with people who are no stranger to receiving awards and recognition. Plus, as mentioned, it’s from HBO. But then, there’s the British series bloc which proved to be Emmy darlings as well even pulling off some notable upsets (even over HBO shows) in the past. That said, the new voting scheme makes me think that the buzz built by Olive Kitteridge is enough to secure a win here.

Prediction: Olive Kitteridge”
Alternate: Wolf Hall

Full Rankings:
01. “Olive Kitteridge”
02. “Wolf Hall
03. “American Crime”
04. “American Horror Story: Freak Show
05. “The Honourable Woman

You can check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl