Five days from now, Anthony Anderson and Lauren Graham will announce the nominees for the 68th Primetime Emmy Awards, rewarding the best in television for the previous television season. In this special four-parter, I’ll be sharing my thoughts on which shows and performances are destined for Emmy gold this year. First up, the reality and variety series and specials.
OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION SERIES:
• The Amazing Race (CBS)
• Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
• Project Runway (Lifetime)
• So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)
• Top Chef (Bravo)
• The Voice (NBC)
Seventh nominee: Survivor (NBC)
Despite the surge in popularity of other reality shows like RuPaul’s Drag Race or the previously nominated Survivor, voters in this category are probably the laziest as this is the lineup we had for the last three years. Thus, even if there are other shows that were well-received, we’re stuck with this lineup, and that’s why I’m predicting the same six. Watch out though for a comeback of some sort, either Survivor‘s resurgence finally catches on the Academy or the farewell season of American Idol, to join the race again.
OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION HOST:
• Tom Bergeron, “Dancing with the Stars”
• Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance”
• Steve Harvey, “Celebrity Family Feud”
• Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn, “Project Runway”
• Jane Lynch, “Hollywood Game Night”
Sixth nominee: Ryan Seacrest, “American Idol”
Anthony Bourdain is ineligible this time around for The Taste, so that frees up a slot here, and the possibilities are endless. For now, I’m retaining three of the previous winners here – Bergeron, Klum and Gunn, and current champ Lynch – to join perennial nominee Cat Deeley. As for the newbie, I’m betting on Steve Harvey to pick up a nod, especially after his infamous Miss Universe stint in here. If not, then Ryan Seacrest probably comes back for Idol‘s series finale, or maybe RuPaul finally gets a breakthrough.
OUTSTANDING SPECIAL CLASS PROGRAM
• Grease: Live (Fox)
• Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill (HBO)
• The Oscars (ABC)
• Super Bowl 50 Halftime Show (CBS)
• 69th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)
• The Wiz Live (NBC)
Seventh nominee: Grammys 2016 (CBS)
For the first time, they’ve created a specific Special Class Program that separates specials to awards ceremonies and other live events. For this one, the focus is on theatrical specials and the current trend of doing live musicals on network shows will automatically give Grease Live and The Wiz Live nominations. Among awards ceremonies, however, the Oscars and the Tonys are the one that regularly gets nominated so expect them in here as well. HBO’s Lady Day special is a good bet as well, and since it’s still up in the air if we’ll get five or six nominees here, I’m including the Pepsi Halftime Show of the SuperBowl 50 which had the Coldplay, Bruno Mars, and Beyonce performance.
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL
• Adele Live in New York City (NBC)
• Amy Schumer: Live at the Apollo (HBO)
• Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
• Lemonade (HBO)
• Must See TV: A Tribute to James Burrows (NBC)
Sixth nominee: Sinatra 100: An All-Star Grammy Concert (CBS)
Speaking of Beyonce, the first of the Adele vs. Beyonce face-offs yet to come for the rest of the year will surprisingly start at the Emmys. Adele’s special NBC New York special is the frontrunner here, but Beyonce’s online smash premiere of Lemonade on HBO is a certain to receive a nod too. In between, there’s Amy Schumer’s Live at the Apollo special, multiple time winner Kennedy Center Honors, and as for the last spot, I’m going with the James Burrows special only because I think Burrows is a prominent and legendary TV figure that has worked on a lot of previous Emmy winning series.
OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK PROGRAM
• The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
• Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
• Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
• The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS)
• The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
• The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
Seventh nominee: Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
It’s a different category now without the usual shows (as the three from last year – the two Jimmys and John Oliver are coming back), especially from last year. With the exit of David Letterman and Jon Stewart, it frees up two spots here. Well, three if you include The Colbert Report, but then he’s just replacing himself with The Late Show. Trevor Noah taking over Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show is a shoo-in atoo. For that last spot, one can count on Real Time with Bill Maher to come back considering it’s a mainstay in this category except for its first absence last year. That said, I think HBO’s focus is now on Last Week Tonight already. I guess the popularity of his carpool karaoke series combined with the industrys penchant for him will give James Corden his first bid here for his CBS nightly show.
OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH PROGRAM
• Documentary Now! (IFC)
• Drunk History (Comedy Central)
• Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
• Key & Peele (Comedy Central)
• Portlandia (IFC)
• Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Seventh nominee: Billy On The Street (truTV)
They’re extending the category to six now from last year’s five. Considering that all five nominees from last year are still eligible, then expect all five to be back. As for what’s joining them, we’re counting on IFC’s Documentary Now which has Emmy nominees Fred Armisen and Bill Hader on the forefront to get nominated too.
Tomorrow, it’s the longform categories with the TV Movie and Miniseries programs!
Talk to me about it on Twitter: @nikowl
The Golden Globes weekend has officially started! In two days, the first televised awards ceremony of the season begins with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) announces their winners of the 73rd Golden Globe Awards in a night filled with chocolates, booze, and stars. This year, Denzel Washington is the recipient of the Cecil B. DeMille distinction, as Ricky Gervais comes back as the host after three years. With Tom Hanks to Mel Gibson, and Channing Tatum to Eva Longoria expected to attend, let’s predict who will end up heading to the Globes stage to give their awards speeches on Sunday (Monday here in the Philippines) in all 25 categories.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
PREDICTION: Spolight. Despite showing some weakness, this still remains as the strongest contenders among the dramatic nominees here. It will still win this category pretty easily, and there’s a chance it can only end up winning this one ala 12 Years a Slave two years ago.
ALTERNATE: Mad Max: Fury Road. This can basically be any of the films here. Carol, albeit leading the nominations is a weak contender here and can even be emptyhanded. It can also be The Revenant after snubbing eventual Oscar winner Alejandro Inarritu last year. But Mad Max is that populist and critical choice that the Golden Globes are known for.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Bryan Cranston (“Trumbo”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)
Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”)
Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”)
Will Smith (“Concussion”)
PREDICTION: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”). Unlike the Oscars, the Globes haven’t been cruel to Leo winning twice in the past already. That said, being the Oscar frontrunner helps him win his third Globe come Sunday.
ALTERNATE: Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”). Fassbender is a Golden Globe winner waiting to happen, and he’s now on his third nomination in five years. In a Leo-less field, he’s probably sweeping now.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Cate Blanchett (“Carol”)
Brie Larson (“Room”)
Rooney Mara (“Carol”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”)
Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)
PREDICTION: Brie Larson (“Room”). Room overperformed with nominations at the Globes this year, which makes me think that Larson got this one.
ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”). Watch out for Saoirse Ronan though who’s every inch in this race and can still steal the momentum from Larson.
Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
“The Big Short”
PREDICTION: “The Big Short”. With The Big Short only getting stronger as each day passes, it can start its Best Picture road by winning this category on Sunday.
ALTERNATE: “The Martian”. The Globes has been into some hot water after placing this film in the Comedy genre, so I think it will somehow affect its chances here if it ends up winning. As a reminder, the film’s comedy placement won only by a single vote so there’s that.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Christian Bale (“The Big Short”)
Steve Carell (“The Big Short”)
Matt Damon (“The Martian”)
Al Pacino (“Danny Collins”)
Mark Ruffalo (“Infinitely Polar Bear”)
PREDICTION: Matt Damon (“The Martian”). Considering that Matt Damon hasn’t won a Golden Globe yet for acting, this makes sense as a place to reward The Martian especially if it ain’t winning Best Picture.
ALTERNATE: Steve Carell (“The Big Short”). While there’s still a path for Carell to win, the fact that they placed Christian Bale here will siphon some votes among The Big Short fans here.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”)
Melissa McCarthy (“Spy”)
Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck”)
Maggie Smith (“The Lady in the Van”)
Lily Tomlin (“Grandma”)
PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”). This category feels like the dire one last year, and Lawrence is still likely the only Oscar contender here (yup, we’re still not counting on the Dame), so maybe an easy #3 for Lawgend.
ALTERNATE: Amy Schumer (“Trainwreck”). Hollywood’s it girl for 2015 is off to have an even greater 2016, and the Globes love that kind of coronation so this win is really possible.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Paul Dano (“Love & Mercy”)
Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”)
Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”)
Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”)
Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”)
PREDICTION: Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”). Rylance is an unlikely Golden Globe winner, but at this stage he’s really the strongest contender so I say why not?
ALTERNATE: Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”). This type of rewarding a veteran and even a huge moviestar is such a Globes-y thing to do, so count on the HFPA starfuckers to throw him a moment.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Jane Fonda (“Youth”)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”)
Helen Mirren (“Trumbo”)
Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”)
Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)
PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander (“Ex Machina”). They love Alicia Vikander so much that they nominated her twice, and considering she has no chance in Drama Lead Actress, they’ll reward her here instead.
ALTERNATE: Jennifer Jason Leigh (“The Hateful Eight”). The Globes are more appreciative of Tarantino performances, and this can signal that she’s still in the race like the trajectory of Christoph Waltz in 2012.
Best Director – Motion Picture
Todd Haynes (“Carol”)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“The Revenant”)
Tom McCarthy (“Spotlight”)
George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)
Ridley Scott (“The Martian”)
PREDICTION: George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”). Surprisingly enough, this is Miller’s first ever Globe nomination so this can be his lifetime award already from the HFPA.
ALTERNATE: Ridley Scott (“The Martian”). Then there’s three-time nominee Ridley Scott who also hasn’t won here yet, and while he has already directed a Globe BP winning movie, Miller has the stronger “technical directorial achievement” narrative.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Emma Donoghue (“Room”)
Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (“Spotlight”)
Charles Randolph, Adam McKay (“The Big Short”)
Aaron Sorkin (“Steve Jobs”)
Quentin Tarantino (“The Hateful Eight”)
PREDICTION: Charles Randolph, Adam McKay (“The Big Short”). Never underestimate this contender. Like what I’ve said, it’s just on an upward trajectory for now. Considering the last three wins here are upsets, I’ll give this duo the edge.
ALTERNATE: Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer (“Spotlight”). It’s a battle between the two Best Picture contenders, but Spotlight has the edge in terms of winning more awards in Screenplay thus far.
Best Animated Feature Film
“The Good Dinosaur”
“The Peanuts Movie”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie”
PREDICTION: “Inside Out”. This remains the critical pick of the year, and with huge box office performance to boot. So I’d say it’s still ahead.
ALTERNATE: “Anomalisa”. This isn’t a Globes type of pick, but it has the critics behind it, and the HFPA are more welcoming to stop motion type of animation.
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
“The Brand New Testament”
“Son of Saul”
PREDICTION: “Son of Saul”. This is still the frontrunner and no film has yet appeared to challenge it for the win. It has the prestige and the studio to nab this win.
ALTERNATE: “Mustang”. Probably Mustang comes the closest to an alternate, but I still see it falling short.
Best Original Score
Carter Burwell (“Carol”)
Alexandre Desplat (“The Danish Girl”)
Ennio Morricone (“The Hateful Eight”)
Daniel Pemberton (“Steve Jobs”)
Ryuichi Sakamoto Alva Noto (“The Revenant”)
PREDICTION: Ennio Morricone (“The Hateful Eight”). They won’t let a year pass by without giving Harvey a win so it’s between his two films here. I’d give the edge to Ennio as he’s a veteran in this category.
ALTERNATE: Carter Burwell (“Carol”). This can be the place to reward Carol. After all, it’s rare for the top nomination earner movie to not take home at least one prize.
Best Original Song
“Love Me Like You Do” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
“One Kind of Love” from “Love & Mercy”
“See You Again” from “Furious 7”
“Simple Song No. 3” from “Youth”
“Writing’s on the Wall” from “Spectre”
PREDICTION: “One Kind of Love” from “Love & Mercy”. While this has been ineligible at the Oscars, it actually makes more sense considering that most winners here tend to get snubbed there.
ALTERNATE: “See You Again” from “Furious 7”. The pop songs are probably canceling each other out, but if there’s one who can overcome this, it’s a song about a Hollywood actor who passed away.
Best TV Series – Drama
“Game of Thrones”
PREDICTION: “Mr. Robot”. With the HFPA’s love for cable shows, it’s not surprising if they went with this critically loved breakout show from USA.
ALTERNATE: “Empire”. One has to go back nine years ago in 2006 when the top TV drama series went to a network show and that was for ABC’s Grey’s Anatomy. The closest comparison to how huge that show was in recent years was the Empire mania that has happened last year .
Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”)
Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot”)
Wagner Moura (“Narcos”)
Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
Liev Schreiber (“Ray Donovan”)
PREDICTION: Rami Malek (“Mr. Robot”). Nine of the last 15 years here all came from freshman shows. But considering that the Globes tend to do a package deal of awarding a show + its lead actor (Homeland and Danes, Transparent and Tambor, Brooklyn Nine Nine and Samberg, Girls and Dunham and so on and so forth), Malek makes sense as the winner here.
ALTERNATE: Wagner Moura (“Narcos”). Following that pattern above, maybe its Narcos + Moura who might end up as the winners here.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Caitriona Balfe (“Outlander”)
Viola Davis (“How to Get Away With Murder”)
Eva Green (“Penny Dreadful”)
Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”)
Robin Wright (“House of Cards”)
PREDICTION: Taraji P. Henson (“Empire”). Just like at the Emmys, I predict that this will be a Taraji vs. Viola battle. I give the edge to Taraji P. Henson though since Cookie is the type of role that Globes are made to award.
ALTERNATE: Viola Davis (“How to Get Away With Murder”). It can easily be Viola too considering she made history with her Emmy win, but for some reason the HFPA are reluctant to reward her. She lost to Meryl in 2011 despite being the frontrunner, and when she was a shoo-in here last year, she lost to Ruth Wilson of all people. Maybe the HFPA aren’t just fans of her.
Best TV Series – Comedy
“Mozart in the Jungle”
“Orange Is the New Black”
PREDICTION: “Transparent”. The last three shows who have won multiple awards here were Glee, Desperate Housewives, and Sex and the City so they’re more into dramedies here, which helps current champ Transparent to go 2/2.
ALTERNATE: “Veep”. It’s surprising to think that this is the first Series nomination of Veep, but maybe its Emmy win can help it win its Globe trophy as well.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Comedy
Aziz Ansari (“Master of None”)
Gael Garcia Bernal (“Mozart in the Jungle”)
Rob Lowe (“The Grinder”)
Patrick Stewart (“Blunt Talk”)
Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”)
PREDICTION: Aziz Ansari (“Master of None”). We’re sure with besties J.Law and Schumer in the crowd, the HFPA would use the said platform to give Aziz a memorable moent when he gives his speech.
ALTERNATE: Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”). That said, it can also be an easy back to back win for Jeffrey Tambor who can just dominate the awards shows with his brave performance for this show.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Comedy
Rachel Bloom (“Crazy Ex Girlfriend”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Scream Queens”)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”)
Gina Rodriguez (“Jane the Virgin”)
Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”)
PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”). I guess we can consider that the HFPA aren’t just into Veep at all.Not even her one-two punch of film and TV work two years ago ended up with a Globe win despite getting four consecutive Emmy wins already. But this race is a weak one, and with the show getting nominated as well, maybe she can finally inch a win.
ALTERNATE: Lily Tomlin (“Grace & Frankie”). Jamie Lee Curtis makes sense as an alternate, but Scream Queens is too flop of a show that even HFPA won’t bite. So I guess they’d probably give it to Lily Tomlin who’s a double nominee that night!
Best TV Movie or Limited-Series
“American Horror Story: Hotel”
“Flesh and Bone”
PREDICTION: “Fargo”. After their surprise victory last year, then a 2/2 is indeed possible knowing that it received the same, if not more, love this year.
ALTERNATE: “Wolf Hall”. But then sometimes, they just want to embrace their British love and award this equally acclaimed series which got the same nominations as Fargo.
Best Actor in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Idris Elba (“Luther”)
Oscar Isaac (“Show Me a Hero”)
David Oyelowo (“Nightingale”)
Mark Rylance (“Wolf Hall”)
Patrick Wilson (“Fargo”)
PREDICTION: Oscar Isaac (“Show Me a Hero”). This is the closest that the Globes can ride on the Star Wars wave, and Isaac is a breakthrough star waiting to happen so maybe he wins here?
ALTERNATE: Patrick Wilson (“Fargo”). We know the HFPA loves Idris but he has been rewarded for this role already. Maybe Mark Rylance but I have him pegged in Film Supporting Actor already. So that leaves me with Wilson here as the alternate.
Best Actress in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Kirsten Dunst (“Fargo”)
Lady Gaga (“American Horror Story: Hotel”)
Sarah Hay (“Flesh & Bone”)
Felicity Huffman (“American Crime”)
Queen Latifah (“Bessie”)
PREDICTION: Kirsten Dunst (“Fargo”). I predict that Fargo is winning an acting one alongside its Series win, and rewarding Kirsten Dunst makes more sense than Wilson in that more competitive race.
ALTERNATE: Queen Latifah (“Bessie”). Everyone’s predicting Lady Gaga just for the sheer “Globesness” of it, but I think the HFPA is serious about being taken seriously again, so I don’t think they’d go that road. Queen Latifah makes more sense as an alternate.
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Limited-Series or TV Movie
Alan Cumming (“The Good Wife”)
Damian Lewis (“Wolf Hall”)
Ben Mendelsohn (“Bloodline”)
Tobias Menzies (“Outlander”)
Christian Slater (“Mr. Robot”)
PREDICTION: Tobias Menzies (“Outlander”). The surge of love for Outlander would not go home unrewarded, as I think Menzies’ very challenging dual role would end up with a Globe win for him.
ALTERNATE: Christian Slater (“Mr. Robot”). Slater makes sense as the runner-up here, as I don’t think Mr. Robot is going 3/3.
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Limited-Series, or TV Movie
Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”)
Joanne Froggatt (“Downton Abbey”)
Regina King (“American Crime”)
Judith Light (“Transparent”)
Maura Tierney (“The Affair”)
PREDICTION:Regina King (“American Crime”). After that surprising Emmy win back in September, I can see the Globes following suit with a win here.
ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”). Aduba’s upset loss last year reminded me of when Jane Lynch lost the first time in 2010 only to win the succeeding year. Aduba can still follow suit to this.
So what are you predicting this year to win at the Globes? Happy Golden Globes weekend!
Talk to me about it by tweeting me: @nikowl
Drama Series: Game of Thrones (alternate: Mad Men)
Drama Lead Actor: Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards” (alternate: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Drama Lead Actress: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder” (alternate: Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”)
Drama Supporting Actor: Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul” (alternate: Ben Mendelsohn, “Bloodline)
Drama Supporting Actress: Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones” (alternate: Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black)
Drama Directing: Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy” (alternate: Homeland, “From A to B and Back Again”)
Drama Writing: Mad Men, “Person to Person” (alternate: Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy”)
Comedy Series: Veep (alternate: Modern Family)
Comedy Lead Actor: Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent” (alternate: Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”)
Comedy Lead Actress: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” (alternate: Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer”)
Comedy Supporting Actor: Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (alternate: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”)
Comedy Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, “Mom” (alternate: Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”)
Comedy Directing: The Last Man on Earth, “Alive in Tucson” (alternate: Veep, “Testimony”)
Comedy Writing: Veep, “Election Night” (alternate: Transparent, “Pilot”)
Limited Series: Olive Kitteridge (alternate: Wolf Hall)
Limited Series or Movie Lead Actor: Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall” (alternate: Richard Jenkins, “Olive Kitteridge”)
Limited Series or Movie Lead Actress: Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge” (alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman”)
Limited Series or Movie Supporting Actor: Damian Lewis, “Wolf Hall” (alternate: Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge”)
Limited Series or Movie Supporting Actress: Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show” (alternate: Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
Limited Series or Movie Directing: Olive Kitteridge (alternate: Wolf Hall)
Limited Series or Movie Writing: Wolf Hall (alternate: Olive Kitteridge)
Reality/Competition Show: The Amazing Race (alternate: The Voice)
Variety Talk Show: The Colbert Report (alternate: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver)
Variety Sketch Show: Saturday Night Live (alternate: Inside Amy Schumer)
Variety Directing: Inside Amy Schumer, “12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer” (alternate: Late Show with David Letterman, “Episode Show 2414”)
Variety Writing: Inside Amy Schumer (alternate: The Colbert Report)