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MTV Video Music Awards 2013 Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

The 2013 MTV Video Music Awards is just right around the corner, and this one is shaping up to be a good one for MTV’s biggest night. Now celebrating it’s 30th year of the awards ceremonies, appearances and performances by the likes of Katy Perry, One Direction, Miley Cyrus, Bruno Mars, and Robin Thicke to name a few. Also, aside from leading up the nominations this year, Justin Timberlake is this year’s recipient of the Video Vanguard award, and a rumored N*SYNC reunion performance is in the books this year. I know you’re excited for Joey Fatone and Chris Kirkpatrick. Anyway, here are my predictions on the major categories on who will end up with moonmen on Sunday’s ceremony:

VIDEO OF THE YEAR

* Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, “Thrift Shop”
* Bruno Mars, “Locked Out of Heaven”
* Taylor Swift, “I Knew You Were Trouble”
* Robin Thicke, TI, Pharell, “Blurred Lines”
* Justin Timberlake, “Mirrors”

WHO WILL WIN: Between the Video Vanguard award, the rumored N*SYNC performance, and his huge comeback this year, MTV is setting this up to be JT’s big night, and it won’t be complete if he doesn’t end up with the highest honor for that night. Plus, he still hasn’t won here yet, and it’s a great video to represent him here.
RUNNER UP: Taylor Swift. This is still a fan-voted format and Taylor is campaigning the hell for a win this year. Besides, the last six winners here are solo female popstars and Swift fits that bill.
MY CHOICE:  JT. Probably the one that stands out the most, thought that’s not saying a lot.

BEST MALE VIDEO

* Kendrick Lamar, “Swimming Pool (Drank)”
* Bruno Mars, “Locked Out of Heaven”
* Ed Sheeran, “Lego House”
* Robin Thicke, TI, Pharell, “Blurred Lines”
* Justin Timberlake, “Mirrors”

WHO WILL WIN: JT easily. It will be one of those sweep wins for his big night. This win will also put him on a tie with Eminem as the most rewarded act in the history of this category with three wins apiece.
RUNNER UP: 
Robin Thicke. Turning out to be the song of the year by far, they can easily throw him a bone here.
MY CHOICE:  
Ed Sheeran. Let’s throw him a vote come on guys. 🙂

 

BEST FEMALE VIDEO

* Miley Cyrus, “We Can’t Stop”
* Demi Lovato, “Heart Attack”
* Pink (featuring Nate Ruess), “Just Give Me A Reason”
* Rihanna (featuring Mikky Ecko), “Stay”
* Taylor Swift, “I Knew You Were Trouble”

WHO WILL WIN: Taylor Swift. It will probably be an easy win for Taylor as she’s sure to end up with a moonman on Sunday. The only scenario I see that lets her lose here is if she wins Video of the Year inside.
RUNNER UP: 
Miley Cyrus. This song is peaking at the right time, and her legion of fans will propel this to a win.
MY CHOICE:  
Rihanna. Probably the best video in this bunch. Simple and effective.

ARTIST TO WATCH

* Iggy Azalea, “Work”
* Austin Mahone “What About Love”
* Twenty One Pilots, “Holding Onto You”
* The Weeknd, “Wicked Games”
* Zedd (featuring Foxes), “Clarity”

WHO WILL WIN: Austin Mahone. Catering the left over conservative Bieber fanbase and opening for Taylor Swift can propel him to a win here.
RUNNER UP: 
Zedd. Clarity is the biggest hit in this group and he can benefit from that.
MY CHOICE:  
Maybe Zedd. But where’s Macklemore and Ryan Lewis here? This would have been an easy win for them.

BEST POP VIDEO

* Miley Cyrus, “We Can’t Stop”
* fun., “Carry On”
* Selana Gomez, “Come and Get It”
* Bruno Mars, “Locked Out of Heaven”
* Justin Timberlake, “Mirrors”

WHO WILL WIN: Miley Cyrus. I think she has better chance here than in Female since her fans are the most active among this bunch unless…
RUNNER UP:
this is still part of the Timberlake sweep so he can easily take this one too.
MY CHOICE:  
fun I guess. I’m not a fan of most of the videos here.

BEST ROCK VIDEO

* 30 Seconds to Mars, “Up in the Air”
* Fall Out Boy, “My Songs Know What You Did in the Dark”
* Imagine Dragons, “Radioactive”
* Mumford & Sons, “I Will Wait”
* Vampire Weekend, “Diane Young”

WHO WILL WIN: No idea, but the combo of recent rise to popdom and being the most recent here, I’m thinking Imagine Dragons.
RUNNER UP: 
Jared Leto is on the show as a presenter, so that’s one assured nominee who’ll show up so maybe 30 Seconds to Mars?
MY CHOICE:  
Vampire Weekend probably since they’re the ones I like the most in this group.

BEST HIPHOP VIDEO

* A$AP Rocky, “Fuckin’ Problems”
* J.Cole, “Power Trip”
* Drake, “Started From the Bottom”
* Kendrick Lamar, “Swimming Pools”
* Macklemore, Ryan Lewis, “Can’t Hold Us”

WHO WILL WIN: As a result of their good breakout year and as the other most nominated act (aside from Justin that is), this is Macklemore and Ryan Lewis to lose.
RUNNER UP: 
Probably Drake since he’s still 0 in terms of VMA wins.
MY CHOICE:  
Can’t Hold Us is one of my favorite jams this year.

BEST COLLABORATION VIDEO

* Calvin Harris/Ellie Goulding, “I Need Your Love”
* Pink/Nate Ruess, “Just Give Me A Reason”
* Pitbull/Christina Aguilera, “Feel This Moment”
* Robin Thicke/Pharell/TI, “Blurred Lines”
* Justin Timberlake/Jay Z, “Suit and Tie”

WHO WILL WIN: With the VMAs being held in Jay Z’s place this year, there’s no better way to give back to Jay than by giving him the moonman adding up to JT’s domination on Sunday, so I say Suit and Tie wins.
RUNNER UP: 
Blurred Lines since it’s the biggest hit in this line up.
MY CHOICE:  
I’d probably throw Pink and Nate a bone here and give them my vote.

BEST VIDEO WITH A SOCIAL MESSAGE

* Beyonce, “I Was Here”
* Kelly Clarkson, “People Like Us”
* Macklemore and Ryan Lewis/Mary Lambert, “Same Love”
* Miguel, “Candles in the Sun”
* Snoop Lion, “No Guns Allowed”

WHO WILL WIN: An easy win for Macklemore and Ryan Lewis. Plus, it talks about a hot topic that’s really rampant right now.
RUNNER UP: 
Beyonce just to make this more ridiculous as she wins for a live video. Oh and remember we’re in Brooklyn.
MY CHOICE:  
Same Love is the best song here and the only one deserving of a win.

blurred lines

BEST SONG OF THE SUMMER

* Miley Cyrus, “We Can’t Stop”
* Daft Punk, “Get Lucky”
* Selena Gomez, “Come and Get It”
* Calvin Harris/Ellie Goulding, “I Need Your Love”
* One Direction, “Best Song Ever”
* Robin Thicke/Pharell/TI, “Blurred Lines”

WHO WILL WIN: Two words: BLURRED LINES.
RUNNER UP: 
Maybe Miley comes closest to Blurred Lines here. Though she’s far and away a distant runner up.
MY CHOICE:  
Daft Punk and VMA only happens once in a blue moon, so why not grab the chance to vote for it?

There you have it! Are you excited for the 30th VMAs? Don’t forget to watch the show on Sunday!

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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65th Primetime Emmy Awards Nomination Predictions: June 2013   Leave a comment

We’re getting closer to the big announcement day eh? Since the last update, we have Neil Patrick Harris as the official host (his second stint), and we finally got the eligibility lists for all categories, and most of the shows have already ended (Veep is probably the last one remaining of the major contenders). Also, this will be the second to the last update before I reveal my official Emmy predictions a week before the actual nomination announcement. Do you have an idea who will be asked to announce this year?

Anyway, here are my predictions for this month, now including the guest categories:

drama series

drama actor

drama actress

drama supp actor

drama supp actress

drama guest actor

drama guest actress

comedy series

comedy actor

comedy actress

comedy supp actor

comedy supp actresss

comedy guest actor

comedy guest actress

tv movie

tv movie actor

tv movie actress

tv movie supp actor

tv movie supp actress

Who do you think am I overestimating? Who am I underestimating? Pipe them in below!

And as always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Cannes Film Festival Winner Predictions   1 comment

 

Photo courtesy of  Zimbio

In just a few hours, the 66th Cannes Film Festival is about to close. After almost two weeks of non-stop film premieres, the biggest movie festival in the world will soon end. And it is up to jury head Steven Spielberg, together with members Nicole Kidman, Ang Lee, Christoph Waltz, Lynne Ramsay, Naomi Kawase, Cristian Mungiu, Daniel Auteuil, and Vidya Balan, to reveal their choices on the winning films and performances for this year. It’s definitely one of those up in the air years, as there were a lot of films that gained positive response from the media and the Cannes audience this year. And of course, there’s also those surprising choices that came from movies that received cold reception.

I’ll give my shot on who I think will end up as winners in the festival this year. However, it is noteworthy to emphasize that it is really difficult to predict these things since there’s no trend to follow as the jury members change every year. But with that said, here are my predictions for the seven categories to be awarded at the closing festivities:

SCREENPLAY:

Prediction: Ethan and Joel Coen, “Inside Llewyn Davis
As of now, the Coens’ latest entry is turning up to be the best reviewed American film of the year thus far (with a perfect 100 score), and Llewyn seems to be destined to win something in the festival. While chances of directing, actor for Oscar Isaac, and even the Palme d’Or (critics are comparing it to Barton Fink which won them a Director prize), I think they will spread the wealth and reward it with a Screenplay win.

Alternate: Asghar Farhadi, “Le Passé
Farhadi is shaping out to be one of the notable names in festivals and his follow up to 2011’s A Separation also gained notable mentions from the critics. If Farhadi won’t win the top plum this year, then they can pick up multiple wins including this one for screenplay.

ACTOR:

PREDICTION: Michael Douglas and Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra
While odds for a tie are slim, I’m predicting the team up of Matt Damon and Michael Douglas to pick up the top male plum for this year. It really sucks that this won’t get a theater premiere (which easily eliminates them from Oscar contention), but Douglas’ unanimous reviews (and even mentions of his all time best work) is definitely a shoo-in for an Emmy already. It’s also likely that it will solely be Douglas who will win, but with Damon working with Spielberg in the past, he can easily sneak Damon for the win too.

ALTERNATE: Bruce Dern, “Nebraska
If not Douglas, then one can expect Bruce Dern to snatch up the Actor prize for his work in Alexander Payne’s Nebraska. This can be some sort of a prelude to his possible Oscar season, and they can also tag team Will Forte as well, in case they give Behind the Candelabra a higher award.

ACTRESS:

PREDICTION: Adèle Exarchopoulos, “Blue is the Warmest Color
If the jury doesn’t connect to a consensus choice of Blue… being the Palme d’Or, then it can find its way to recognition by winning the Actress award via Adèle Exarchopoulos’s unanimously praised performance. If the Damon/Douglas tie don’t work in Actor, then expect a consecutive tie here (after last year’s victory from Beyond the Hills ladies) between Adèle Exarchopoulos and co-star Lea Seydoux.

ALTERNATE: Marion Cotillard, “The Immigrant
After failing to win this category last year for Rust and Bone, Cotillard can see herself in contention and even a win for this year, thanks to James Gray’s The Immigrant. Cotillard is a famous French star who has been a regular at Cannes for the past few years. This can also be The Immigrant’s win especially if the movie divides the jury.

DIRECTOR:

PREDICTION:  Paolo Sorrentino, “La Grande Belleza
Sorrentino surprised everyone when he got overwhelming positive response for this year’s The Great Beauty. Reviews specify the good combination of breathtaking visuals and the strong direction, which leads me to believe that if Sorrentino wins anything from the festival, it’ll most be likely this one.

ALTERNATE: Steven Soderbergh, “Behind the Candelabra
Soderbergh is one of the true Cannes breakouts. His career started out with sex.lies.videotape in 1989, and this could be a statement from the jury for Hollywood passing up on the film because of its theme. Also, Soderbergh hasn’t won in this category yet, and this can be his first prize here.

JURY PRIZE

PREDICTION: Hirakazu Kore-eda, “Like Father, Like Son
Kore-eda’s drama about the nature vs. nurture of two children switched at birth was a hit at Cannes, and Jury Prize seems to be the most fitting category to reward it. Rumor also have it that Kore-eda is already back at Cannes, which means that it’s likely that the film will be rewarded for something. It also seemed to be getting raves from the jury with Spielberg quoted as emotional to the film’s theme.

ALTERNATE: James Gray, “The Immigrant
Gray is such a divisive filmmaker. His works is always between a love it or you hate it. It’s either for you or not. With that said, I can also see a scenario where they give him the Jury Prize in order to satisfy members of Jury who wants it to be rewarded with something while also satisfying those members who do not like it, as it won’t get the top prize.

GRAND PRIX:

PREDICTION: Jia Zhangke, “A Touch of Sin
Jia Zhangke’s A Touch of Sin seems to be perfect for the Grand Prix category. It’s not a total standout to win the Palme, but it gains specific supporters that can push it for this. He was also spotted already back in Cannes, and he’ll probably get something tomorrow.

ALTERNATE: Abdellatif Kechiche, “Blue is the Warmest Color
I can see this following the scenario of The Master over at Venice last year. It’s the unanimously praise film that gets the jury pumped up. But since the top prize can’t win anything else, they’d have to settle giving the runner up prize to it in order to accommodate other noteworthy things about the film such as rewarding the lead actresses. It can be a battle between giving a sole top prize or settling for second with multiple mentions to go home.

PALME D’OR:

PREDICTION: Asghar Farhadi, “The Past
And I guess the top prize will be given to Farhadi’s The Past. It’s French, it has Farhadi, it’s the conventional choice, it made jury member Kidman in tears after leaving the screening. The Past seems to be the logical choice that will not be hated; after all, it got solid reviews, it’s not as particularly polarizing from the other commendable entries, and you know everyone is just in love with Asghar Farhadi right now. While this is no sure thing, I can see this getting the consensus pick among the jury members.

ALTERNATE: Abdellatif Kechiche, “Blue is the Warmest Color
Lo and behold, this is really the film that towered among everyone else in terms of critical reception. It has already gained buzz and world interest, and the reviews are really staggering and far and away from the other contenders. The thing though that makes it an easy choice to win is that the theme might alienate others. We still don’t know for sure what type of jury is this, and we don’t know if they’re really gonna go for something as bold as this to receive the top prize. But as always, it can easily snoop in the top prize if it gets the jury fired up.

That’s it. I’m really excited to see a lot of entries from this year’s batch, as it’s one of the most lauded in years. I’m also gonna miss Legend Kidman’s red carpet appearances and teaching everyone how it’s done. I’m looking forward to the closing and awarding ceremonies later. Now, who are you rooting and predicting to win? Post it there in the Comments section.

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

19th Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions   4 comments

On Sunday (Monday here in the Philippines), the whole actors guild will be handling out their picks both in movies and television at the 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards. The SAG is known as an influential predictor of the trends that can happen at the Oscars in the four acting categories. Also, for this awards season, the SAG will be the first among the four major guilds to give their awards. Anyway, let’s begin!

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

ensemble

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Argo
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

PREDICTION: Silver Linings Playbook. The whole ensemble is being campaigned by Harvey left and right with endless Q&As with the SAG voting members. It’s a tough call and I can see anything between Argo and Lincoln to win this too, but it’s difficult to argue with the safe contender.

ALTERNATE: Argo. The cast has TV stars in it (sure fire way of getting support from the TV community, and the film is directed by an actor himself. If the whole actors guild still feels sorry for Ben, they might throw him a bone with this too.

actor

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRADLEY COOPER / Pat – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
JOHN HAWKES / Mark – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
HUGH JACKMAN / Jean Valjean – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Whip Whitaker – “FLIGHT” (Paramount Pictures)

PREDICTION: Daniel Day Lewis, “Lincoln.” This is a done deal already. The actors clearly adore him especially since if he actually wins, this will be his third win in this category.

ALTERNATE: Hugh Jackman, “Les Miserables.” He’s clearly a loved guy in Hollywood, and this is the role of his lifetime. SAG voters are warmer to musical and comedies here (Johnny Depp, Jean Dujardin).

actress

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Maya – “ZERO DARK THIRTY” (Columbia Pictures)
MARION COTILLARD / Stephanie – “RUST AND BONE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
HELEN MIRREN / Alma Reville – “HITCHCOCK” (Fox Searchlight)
NAOMI WATTS / Maria – “THE IMPOSSIBLE” (Summit Entertainment)

PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook.” Lawrence is Hollywood’s current it girl. She shifts from blockbuster book adaptations and small indies such as this one. In this day and age that Hollywood young actresses are usually more knoewn to scatter their lives around, they won’t miss the chance to award an actress who isn’t like that.

ALTERNATE: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty.” Clearly, Chastain is known as an actor’s actor. After playing second fiddle for so many years, she finally gets to break through with a leading status.  See Viola Davis last year.

supp actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
ALAN ARKIN / Lester Siegel – “ARGO” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JAVIER BARDEM / Silva – “SKYFALL” (Columbia Pictures)
ROBERT DE NIRO / Pat, Sr. – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN / Lancaster Dodd – “THE MASTER” (The Weinstein Company)
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)

PREDICTION: Robert de Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook.” de Niro hasn’t been awarded a SAG yet and we know how much the Actors Guild love to play catch up to the legendary ones. This is his first real shot since the SAG was established, so they might give him this one.

ALTERNATE: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln.” The same applies for Tommy Lee Jones too, though he already won a SAG as a part of the  No Country for Old Men ensemble. Plus, de Niro is the more respected veteran of the two.

supp actress

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
SALLY FIELD / Mary Todd Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
HELEN HUNT / Cheryl – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
NICOLE KIDMAN / Charlotte Bless – “THE PAPERBOY” (Millennium Entertainment)
MAGGIE SMITH / Muriel Donnelly – “THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL” (Fox Searchlight)

PREDICTION: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables.” Anne is the more mature Jennifer Lawrence in terms of Oscar’s perception of how her career has went through. She has certainly paid her dues, and actors will likely fall over her dedication in this role of Fantine.

ALTERNATE: Sally Field, “Lincoln.” If there’s any actress who has the possibility of pulling an upset, it’s veteran Sally Field. Her performance in Lincoln and the narrative on how much she wanted this role will play a lot in her favor.

stunt

 

Outstanding Performance by a  Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Amazing Spiderman
The Bourne Legacy
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Skyfall

PREDICTION: Skyfall. The most acclaimed film of the bunch which highlights the actual complex stunt performances in it.

ALTERNATE: The Dark Knight Rises. Featured complicated stunt performances also, though Skyfall was just better received.

PRIMETIME TELEVISION

tv movie actor

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
KEVIN COSTNER / “Devil Anse” Hatfield – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)
WOODY HARRELSON / Steve Schmidt – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
ED HARRIS / John McCain – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CLIVE OWEN / Ernest Hemingway – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN“ (HBO)
BILL PAXTON / Randall McCoy – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)

PREDICTION: Kevin Costner, “Hatfields & McCoys”. Costner is a SAG-less respected actor in Hollywood who’s starring in his most lauded performance as an actor. He already won the Globe and Emmy, it’ll be an easy win for him.

ALTERNATE: Ed Harris, “Game Change.” Harris fits the same bill as Costner; however, Game Change was primarily the Julianne Moore show and difficult to overcome the lead performances in his category.

tv movie actress

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
NICOLE KIDMAN / Martha Gellhorn – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN” (HBO)
JULIANNE MOORE / Sarah Palin – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CHARLOTTE RAMPLING / Eva Delectorskaya – “RESTLESS” (Sundance Channel)
SIGOURNEY WEAVER / Elaine Barrish Hammond – “POLITICAL ANIMALS” (USA)
ALFRE WOODARD / Ouiser – “STEEL MAGNOLIAS” (Lifetime)

PREDICTION: Julianne Moore, “Game Change.” Moore has been nominated for an Actor many times but is still win-less. She gets the role that is too juicy to be passed on and has won the Emmy and Globe as well.

ALTERNATE: Nicole Kidman, “Hemingway & Gellhorn”. While Nicole Kidman is also Actor-less as well, I don’t see her getting her first statue for a TV movie. They‘d probably wait for a movie performance to give her a win.

tv drama actor

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
JEFF DANIELS / Will McAvoy – “THE NEWSROOM” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC)
DAMIAN LEWIS / Nicholas Brody – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)

PREDICTION: Damian Lewis, “Homeland.” Lewis is in a time where in Homeland is at its hottest and most buzzed moment. He can easily get carried with the overflowing love for the show despite being with a strong group of co-nominees.

ALTERNATE: Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire.” The SAG TV categories love rubber stamping their winners so Buscemi might just go 3 for 3 here.

tv drama actress

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
MICHELLE DOCKERY / Lady Mary Crawley – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
JESSICA LANGE / Sister Jude – “AMERICAN HORROR STORY: ASYLUM” (FX)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)

PREDICTION: Claire Danes, “Homeland.” Probably the most contested category of the night, I can see everyone except Dockery having a shot to win. I’d probably go with the safe choice of Danes, as this is the performance that had everyone raving.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey.” Clearly, the voters love Dame Smith giving her an all time record of four nominations in one night. This is her biggest chance of getting a win.

tv comedy actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)

PREDICTION: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock.” I have the slightest feeling that Baldwin will be dethroned finally but I won’t bet on that until it finally happens.

ALTERNATE: Louis CK, “Louie.” Comedy’s current it boy who can be rewarded for his writing, directing, producing, and starring credits in Louie.

tv comedy actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
BETTY WHITE / Elka Ostrovsky – “HOT IN CLEVELAND” (TV Land)

PREDICTION: Betty White, “Hot in Cleveland.” The SAGs love Betty. And they love rubber stamping, so they’d go with her again.

ALTERNATE: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation.” Amy hasn’t won anything yet for this performance, and some good will residual love from her Globe stint might push her for a win.

drama ensemble

 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Homeland
Mad Men

PREDICTION: Homeland. There’s nothing stopping the lovefest for this show, and this is their way to reward the whole ensemble.

ALTERNATE: Downton Abbey. The Brit factor must never be underestimated. Plus, it has the largest cast in the group.

comedy ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Glee
Modern Family
Nurse Jackie
The Office

PREDICTION: Modern Family. With such an outdated list of nominees, it’s an easy third straight win for the cast of Modern Family here.

ALTERNATE: The Big Bang Theory. This is the current hottest TV show in the boob tube now, and if voters want somethign new, they can go with the highest rated cast in the group.

tv stunt

Outstanding Performance by a  Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Game of Thrones
Sons of Anarchy
The Walking Dead

PREDICTION: The Walking Dead. I’d probably go with the goriest show in TV that features lots and lots of killing in it. It also won’t hurt that they haven’t won before.

ALTERNATE: Game of Thrones. Current winner can go for a consecutive win here especially if voters are more into sword fightings.

That’s it! Who are you predicting to win? Do not forget to catch the 19th Screen Actors Guild come Monday on Velvet, 9AM for the live telecast and 10 PM for the delayed Primetime telecast. Happy SAG day!

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

85th Oscar Master List Nomination Predictions   2 comments

The nominations for the 85th Academy Awards will be unveiled six days from now, and a lot of the precursors have already released their choices in Hollywood cinema for 2012. The first master list that I did last year went actually great. In the top 8 major categories I included last year, I had a 95% correct rate in the predictions missing only Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Max Von Sydow for Supporting Actor for the same movie. 

To clear things though, this is a master list of possible predictions meaning that these are the possible final contenders vying for each category. If you are joining any Oscar nomination prediction contest, then this is pretty much what you can use as a reference point. Also, I’ll be including those shortlists from the Academy in some of the technical categories. Here we go!

picture

BEST PICTURE

Amour
Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

There’s a huge possibility that we’d get ten nominations for Best Picture this year, as there have been lots of passionate supporters of the movies we have in contention for the top honor. With that said, those who are safer are Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserableles, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty. Both Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom are safe bets, too, though they probably fit the likes of filler nominees. As for the rest, there’s a chance that we can hear them nominated but guilds aren’t too fond of Amour (let’s see how it catches up with other guilds), The Master (not even at the SAG and the art directions guild), and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (can be supported by the British bloc and the age correlation of Oscar voters).

director

BEST DIRECTOR

Ben Affleck, Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

And it all boils down to eight. Affleck, Spielberg, and Bigelow are safe for now. Ang Lee seems to be a director’s favorite, as he’s rewarded with nominations for all his past Oscar efforts. He’d also be getting a DGA nomination and has won that twice so he ahs the support of his own guild. The last spot is somehow tricky. David O. Russell seems the likeliest fifth contender, especially for all his efforts in Silver Linings Playbook. Thanks to The Fighter, it’s now easier for him to throw his name in the game. Quentin Tarantino can also fill up the last spot, as most of his efforts (especially those with Oscar buzz) has specified out his direction. It’s also a flashy performance that can resonate well with voters. Then there’s also Tom Hooper. I really don’t think he’s out per se, though that Globe snub was a big miss. He pulled off the surprise win in 2010 both at the Oscar and the DGA, so he must really have fans within the Academy. Then Paul Thomas Anderson can still sneak in his way to a nod if he maintains a solid passion among voters ala Terrence Malick last year.

lead actors

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Jean Louis Trintignant, Amour
Denzel Washington, Flight

Technically, this is just a six way race for the nomination but before we shock ourselves with a Daniel Day Lewis sweep within the next few weeks, here’s a more interesting race to look at. Daniel Day Lewis is in. No questions about that. Then, I’d say Bradley Cooper is also in. He got all the necessary precursors, won a critics award, newbie nominee, and has Harvey Weinstein on his back. That’s as sure as one can get. The next few slots can be tricky, but here’s the way I see the race. Hugh Jackman is in third. Les Mis is a box office juggernaut now, and  its critical appeal is slowly rebuilding its momentum. Plus he’s like the most likable man in Hollywood now. Denzel Washington comes next. He’s a major Hollywood superstar in a comeback Oscar vehicle. Think of it as a sure but filler Oscar nomination. The last spot is between John Hawkes and Joaquin Phoenix. Hawkes plays an Oscar weakness role but is in a really small movie. Meanwhile, Joaquin is funded by Harvey but the nature of his role plus his utter bluntness about the whole Oscar fare can affect his chances. It’s really a battle. As for Richard Gere, congrats on your Globe nod, and Trintignant on your EFA win!

lead actress

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

Best Actress is also crowded this year. First, we have the frontrunners Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. They’re in. No Matter what happens, they’re getting in. Next will probably be Naomi Watts and Marion Cotillard. Both are the flagship accolades that their movies can get and has hit all precursors so far. The fifth slot can be tricky and is between five women. Helen Mirren can get in especially since she only needed a Globe and SAG nod when she got nominated for The Last Station and she got the same nods now. Quvenzhane Wallis is one of the year’s biggest breakthrough talents, and if there’s really a Beasts following, then it’s hard to see her miss. Emmanuelle Riva has the LAFCA win behind her, but no other precursors. However, it had the likes of Nicole Kidman buzzing about her performance. Then we have Rachel Weisz too, who got a Globe nod along her NY critics win, so she’s still in the race as well.

supporting actor

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo di Caprio, Django Unchained
Dwight Henry. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Now this is the most crowded major category for this year. I still think there’s room for a few more contenders that were not mentioned here, and I won’t be shocked if this will ruin (once again) my predicting skills this year. The only safe man here is Tommy Lee Jones. The rest can still miss though we’d have (in alphabetical order) Alan Arkin who was rewarded for a similar role so Oscar might not bother this time, Javier Bardem who was memorable in Skyfall but was rewarded for a far more iconic villain in this category  in 2007. Both Django Unchained guys can cancel themselves out especially in a crowded category like this. Hoffman is an actor’s actor, and he can get in even if the movie’s not a hit, but he can also cancel himself this year as The Master isn’t getting any support at all. de Niro also is a huge possibility, but with all the accolades focusing on lead stars Cooper and Lawrence, he might sit this one out as well. Lastly, Henry is the newbie we might be waiting here (since there’s always a newbie in the line up since the category’s inception), but he can also easily miss due to lack of precursor support for the performances in Beasts of the Southern Wild.

supporting actress

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, The Master
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Hathaway, Field, and Hunt are sure bets. There’s no way they’re missing for a nod this year. However, the last two spots can still be a race for five actresses. Amy Adams seems like a sure thing, but with a SAG miss this year, she haven’t had any past Oscar nom that translated despite a  SAG snub. This might be telling. Judi Dench can get a farewell nom for her Bond work, and this can also their way of recognizing her good year. But then again, Bond films doesn’t attract serious buzz within the Academy. Ann Dowd is slowly gaining momentum, but the nature of the film can hurt her the way it hurt Tilda Swinton last year despite getting all precursor nominations. Nicole Kidman got Globe + SAG nods, and while it’s actually a strong combo, the dislike of the film and her role in it can turn off some voters. Lastly, Maggie Smith got a SAG nod only in her name, but she’s Dame Maggie Smith, and that can be enough campaign for her… or not.

As for the rest of the race:

original screenplay

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
The Intouchables
Looper
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

adapted screenplay

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Perks of Being a Wallflower
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook

animated feature

ANIMATED FEATURE

Brave
Frankenweenie
From the Poppy Hill
Hotel Transylvania
The Painting
Paranorman
The Pirates: Legend of the Misfits
The Rabbi’s Cat
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck it Ralph

foreign language film

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Amour (Austria)
Beyond the Hills (Romania)
The Deep (Iceland)
The Intouchables (France)
Kon-tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Sister (Switzerland)
War Witch (Canada)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry
Bully
Chasing Ice
Detropia
Ethel
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
The House I Live In
How to Survive a Plague
The Imposter
The Invisible War
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
Searching for Sugar Man
This is Not a Film
The Waiting Room

BEST MAKE UP AND HAIRSTYLING

Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Looper
Men in Black 3
Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
John Carter
Life of Pi
Marvel’s The Avengers
Prometheus
Skyfall
Snow White and the Huntsman

As for my Oscar nominations predictions, they’ll be posted here on Tuesday. Happy Oscar predicting!

And as always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

2012: The Year in Lead Actors   1 comment

2012 lead actors

Hey everyone! We’re still continuing the yearend lists over here at Tit for Tat. Aside from that, we’re also doing the recap of the movie performances in local cinema the past year. The past two days, we gave the focus to the supporting actresses and supporting actors. It’s time to move now to the leading categories. For this day, we’d give the spotlight to the men and tackle the Best Actor category. Like what I said, these are possible choices from all the award giving bodies this year from mainstream to indie and those that can cross-over in between. Let’s begin!

LEADERS OF THE PACK

Probably the strongest contender in this category for this year is acting legend Eddie Garcia as he adds another memorable turn for his role as the old gay man living with his dog in Bwakaw. His competition this year might skew to much younger actors though as there have been lots of good awards-bait performances this year such as the likes of Dingdong Dantes‘ MMFF winning performance in One More Try, Coco Martin‘s indie comeback as the father who found the remains of his daughter in Santa Nina, Jericho Rosales as the single parent whose son gone missing in Alagwa, and JM de Guzman as the mussel diver in the title role Intoy Syokoy ng Kalye Marino.

MIDDLE TIER

As for the other lead roles in contention, award giving bodies might also throw a bone to Arnold Reyes as the loyal driver who was caught in the middle in his Congressman employer in the Tribeca hit Graeland, awards staple John Lloyd Cruz might get some nominations as well for his performance opposite Bea Alonzo in The Mistress or for his movie with Angel Locsin, Unofficially Yours.  Scene stealing Archie Alemania should hear his name be read especially at the Comedy Best Actor of the Golden Screen Awards for his role in Cinema One Original entry Slumber Party. And in a surprising turn of events, we’d have a battle of two heroes this year in the Best Actor category: Alfred Vargas as Andres Bonifacio in Richard Somes’ Supremo and ER Ejercito as Emilio Aguinaldo in the MMFF entry El Presidente.

Cinemalaya movies also produced a lot of worthy Best Actor turns such as the winning performance of Kristoffer King in Oros, Pen Medina in Kamera Obskura, Dominic Roco‘s Gibson in Ang Nawawala, and Thai actor playing lone soldier Ananda Everingham in Kalayaan. Casting issues (from Cinemalaya) aside, Allan Paule‘s fantastic turn in Emerson Reyes’s MNL 143 can possibly reap nominations as well.

THE REST OF THE RACE

Other lead actor contenders that might are still in the race are Dennis Trillo in the title role of Ang Katiwala, Cinema One Originals Best Actor winner Alex Medina in Palitan, newbie actor Gerry Adeva as the title role in Mamay Umeng, Allen Dizon in Joel Lamangan’s drama Migrante, and the most intelligent and uptight of the three gay friends Markki Stroem in Slumber Party. Among mainstream movies, one can also consider Derek Ramsey in A Secret Affair, Aga Muhlach in Of All The Things, Piolo Pascual in Every Breath U Take, Enchong Dee in The Strangers, and Vice Ganda in either This Guy’s in Love With U Mare or Sisterakas.

That’s it. Last part of the acting spotlight tomorrow with everybody’s favorite category: Best Actress!

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

2012: The Year in Supporting Actors   Leave a comment

2012 supp actors

Yesterday, we kicked off the awards season here at Tit for Tat with a recap of the year in supporting actresses in local films. For this day, we’d do the counterpart and discuss the year in supporting actors. Mostly, supporting actor roles this year were veteran actors doing comeback films or newbie actors in their first films. Like the pattern yesterday, we’d divide them into three parts:

LEADERS OF THE PACK

If he’s not submitted or inserted in the far crowded Lead Actor category, Thy Womb‘s Bembol Roco can find his name among award giving bodies this year as the husband of Nora Aunor who wanted to have a child of his own. Ronaldo Valdez seems like that he will be a staple to as Bea Alonzo’s benefactor in The Mistress. Filmfest Best Supporting Actor winner Cesar Montano is also gaining notices as the standout from the ensemble of El Presidente playing the role of hero Andres Bonifacio. Relatively younger actor Zanjoe Marudo had two award worthy performances this year: as one of the soldiers in Adolf Alix’s Kalayaan, though I can see award giving bodies going for his showier performance as Tristan in the drama One More Try. Round up the top five is the comical and scene stealing performance of Joey Marquez as the passive and under da saya husband of Janice de Belen in Tiktik: The Aswang Chronicles.

MIDDLE TIER

After the top five, these men’s performances can also see a nomination or two from these award giving bodies: versatile actor Art Acuña can do back to back wins at the Urian and Golden Screen for his performance as the head of police in the Cinemalaya entry Posas. Veteran actor Mark Gil can do a comeback at the awards circuit in his flashy performance as Frankie in Mariposa sa Hawla ng Gabi. No stranger to awards, Carlo Aquino can also pick up nominations for his turn as the younger son in Adolf Alix’s Mater Dolorosa while older brother Cogie Domingo also has buzz from the same film. The same can be said for Cinemalaya Supporting Actor winner Joross Gamboa playing as one of JM de Guzman’s friends in Intoy Syokoy ng Kalye Marino. Kristoffer Martin, playing lazy younger brother to another Kristoffer (King, that is) who does not want to live a poverty stricken life in Oros can be a candidate as well. If voters are much in love with El Presidente, then Andres Bonifacio might not be the only hero nominated in this category. Christopher de Leon‘s Anotnio Luna can be in the running as well. Joel Torre might gain some notices too, if voters are kinder to Mariposa for his role as Primo, the butcher. Ogie Alcasid‘s one hit wonder slash understanding father to Sam Concepcion might pick up some notices as well for his performance in I Do Bidoo Bidoo. Lastly, Patrick Sugui can also get nominated especially in award giving bodies that has new actors of the year categories as the frat neophyte in Gino Santos’s The Animals.

THE REST OF THE RACE

As for the rest of the race, one can also take a look into the performances of Mon Confiado as the boss who has the hots for one of his employees’ wife in Palitan, Sef Cadayona as the hostage of three gay friends in Slumber Party, corrupt politician Menggie Cobarrubias whose family was put into a test in Graceland, and the pair of Mariposa actors Dennis Padilla as the cop who wants a promotion and Alfred Vargas as Carlos, the boyfriend of Erich Gonzales’s sister in the movie. Looking further, other performances that might be up for consideration were newcomer Nicolas Varela in Aberya, Robert Arevalo as Vilma Santos’ now healthy father in The Healing, Baron Geisler’s Spanish soldier performance in El Presidente, Sid Lucero as one of the Abu Sayyaf members in Captive, and Niño Muhlach as fairy gaymother in Slumber Party.

That’s it! That’s just 25 names, but it gives award giving bodies a lot of options to choose from in next year’s awards derby. Tomorrow, spotlight for the leading actors of the year will be given.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl