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67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

comedy guest actor

Let’s complete the guest acting categories for this year by discussing the Guest Actor Comedy Series Emmy. All the six men nominated this year are no strangers to the Emmys considering they have collectively combined dozens and dozens of nominations under their belt. But with no clear frontrunner such as Bob Newhart or Jimmy Fallon this year, the race really seems up in the air.

Previously nominated thrice already in this category, still Emmyless actor Jon Hamm gets his first nod outside of his work in 30 Rock. However, it’s for another Tina Fey produced show — the Comedy Series nominee Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. In the season finale entitled “Kimmy Makes Waffles”, a tape was revealed where Reverand Richard Wayne Gary Wayne was seen doing some different activities disproving his earlier claims. This ends with a court room scene where he was pleaded as guilty. It’s a very competitive tape, though one can argue that his best scenes are in the beginning and his court scenes pale in comparison to that.

It’s one of those easier name checking instances, as veteran Mel Brooks gets in for the one-season canceled show The Comedians. In his episode “Celebrity Guest”. Billy Crystal attempts to invite Mel as a celebrity guest. It’s a pretty short appearance considering there were many storylines in that episode, and his wasn’t even the main one. I doubt he’ll be winning for this one, though one should never underestimate name checking.

Paul Giamatti targets Emmy win number 2, this time for his performance as Juror #10 in Inside Amy Schumer‘s “12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer” episode. Considered as one of the top comedic episodes of the past seasons, I can see a scenario where voters will go for it because of their love for the episode, regardless of Paul Giamatti’s performance in it. That said, his turn here is quite exquisite. Sure, John Hawkes upstaged him, but Giamatti stayed with his character that even in the most hilarious lines, you’d see him with a straight face. Hawkes’ snub clearly helps Paul though as now he’s the only chance to reward someone for this episode.

On the outside, physical transformation is what sets Bradley Whitford apart from his co-nominees for his turn as Marcy May in Transparent. Donning a blonde wig, the closet transvestite spends a day with confidante Maura in his submitted episode “Best New Girl.” It’s a pretty subtle performance, if ever there’s one in this lineup and can garner some votes in his way. However, it lacks the scenery chewing scene this category loves. Let’s see how it fares up with the rest of the pack, though he’s definitely in contention.

In four of the last six years, ever since Saturday Night Live hosts were submitted here, the guest actor category has been a place to reward the acting in the said sketch series. However, two of those are for Justin Timberlake hosted episodes while the other two are for Jimmy Fallon’s. This year, neither are nominated but we have two who have gained multiple nominations already. First up is Louis C.K. earning his third consecutive nomination as an SNL host. In the 40th season finale, his submitted episode, he kicked it off with a seven-minute monologue which is equally hilarious as it is controversial. That said, this is weaker than his previous stints, so if he can’t win during those times, maybe this one won’t be it as well.

Lastly, there’s SNL alum Bill Hader who was previously nominated in the Supporting Actor category. In his first bid as a guest host, Hader revisited all his prominent previous iconic SNL turns especially Stefon. While this is no slam dunk, this benefits him (as compared back in Supporting) because he appears in most of the sketches. He’s also helped by another Emmy favorite Kristen Wiig). Hader has since accumulated greater goodwill since the last time he was nominated appearing in critically lauded films such as The Skeleton Twins and in the great summer blockbuster Trainwreck. In a field as open as this one, a Hader victory situation isn’t far-fetched; thus I’m predicting him for the win.

Prediction: Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”
Alternate: Bradley Whitford, “Transparent

Full Rankings:
01. Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”
02. Bradley Whitford, “Transparent
03. Paul Giamatti, “Inside Amy Schumer
04. Jon Hamm, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
05. Mel Brooks “The Comedians
06. Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live”

You can check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

supp actor comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Peter Boyle, “Everybody Loves Raymond[WRONG]
2006:
Jeremy Piven, “Entourage[CORRECT]
2007:
Jeremy Piven, “Entourage[CORRECT]
2008:
Jeremy Piven, “Entourage[CORRECT]
2009:
Neil Patrick Harris, “How I Met Your Mother[WRONG]
2010:
Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family[CORRECT]
2011:
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family[CORRECT]
2012:
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family[WRONG]

After discussing the directing and writing categories, let’s go back to the acting ones. For now, we’ll be discussing the supporting categories in a comedy series. As for the actors, the final list of nominees ended up shocking the prognosticating world, as it gives the most extreme inclusions and exclusions. Some of the snubbed were current titleholder Eric Stonestreet for Modern Family, Max Greenfield for New Girl, and Will Arnett for Arrested Development. All three were predicted to be sure locks to receive nominations here, but it obviously did not materialize. As for those who were actually nominated…

While not all four Modern Family guys received nominations this year, three of them still managed to do so. 2011 winner Ty Burrell is back for another nod, and this year, he submitted Mistery Date which was the episode that involved a gay Matthew Broderick confusing a date with Burrell’s character. Burrell is one of the few MF stars who have multiple episodes to choose from, so this episode is a hit or miss for others. On one hand, this has the typical Phil funny stuff, but on the other, Broderick’s snub here might be telling of the Academy’s perception of the said episode.

Then we have Jesse Tyler Ferguson. Despite having no wins yet, it is actually surprising that Jesse Tyler Ferguson is one of the four actors from the cast (and the only one aside from Ty Burrell among males) that managed to receive nominations for all four previous seasons of the show. I think this indicates some passion on his character. While his episode The Wow Factor shows a competitive Mitchell; his attempts to beat young kids might not be as comedic as one would assume.

Ed O’Neill’s best tape was two years ago for the episode The Kiss during the show’ sophomore season. However, this year, he’s probably one who can benefit from the “multiple tape format” among co-stars. His original planned tape “The Wow Factor” was changed because it was co-star Ferguson’s submission already. This gives him an advantage to submit another tape of his liking which was the season opener Bringing Up Baby. The common factor among his chosen tapes was that they were all heart-tugging and it might work well for him in the end.

For his final season in SNL, Bill Hader receives a farewell nod from the Academy. This year, he submits the first episode with Seth MacFarlane. I personally think that this is a solid submission with his Clint Eastwood bit as arguably the most memorable among all the episodes in this category. As Kristen Wiig proved last year (and Steve Carell the year before), they mostly don’t care if you are leaving the show already and that they aren’t as sentimental as expected. The only downside of his submission is that there’s no sight of Stefon.

As per the Emmy rulebook, a person who has two continuing roles in a series can’t be campaigned for both, so they must choose one that will be for consideration. That’s the risk that paid off for Tony Hale this year by going with his current show Veep rather than sticking for Arrested Development.  Obviously, it’s a good call knowing that AD very much underperformed while Veep overperformed. As for his submission Running, I think it gives him a lot do in terms of showcasing his comedic skills and is the perfect submission for him. In fact, I’d rank him as the contender with the best possibility to overcome the Modern Family guys.

Lastly, there’s Adam Driver. It’s one of the nominations I root for but certainly did not expect to happen. This is really a surprise because all the talks prior to the nominations have been for the supporting actresses, so Adam Driver being the first one outside of Lena Dunham to get an acting nod means something. In his tape It’s Back, he stands out because of the show’s tone among the other programs in this category. With that said, it can go back and forth with him, though I don’t see him winning this year.

With no Eric Stonestreet this year, this category is very up in the air. However, for the past ten years, series shows with three or more acting nominations has better odds of winning because it gives their actors more tapes and episodes as submissions. This has happened to The West Wing in 2002, Sex and the City in 2004, Desperate Housewives in 2005, Grey’s Anatomy in 2007, and Modern Family here for the past three years. I think the same will still happen this year, and the combo of their three submissions puts Ty Burrell in an advantage over his two co-stars. The only scenario I see where in someone NOT from Modern Family winning is if there is a fatigue on the show already. In that case, Tony Hale wins from a bunch of Veep and Arrested Development supporters.

Prediction: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
Runner-Up: Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family

Full Rankings:
1. Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
2. Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family
3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family
4. Tony Hale, “Arrested Development!
5. Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live
6. Adam Driver, “Girls” 

To check my complete Emmy predictions, you can see them here.

And, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family” (Lifetime Supply)
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family” (Leap Day)
• Max Greenfield, “New Girl” (Control)
• Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live” (Host: Katy Perry)
• Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family” (Baby on Board)
• Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family” (Treehouse)

Current champ Ty Burrell can easily go for a repeat win in this category, thanks to having a “moment” in all four Modern Family tapes this season. While his episode submission that dealt with him thinking that there’s something wrong with his health is strong itself, it also does not hurt him that over the top characters and scene-stealers are well loved in this category and even rewarded with multiple Emmys (e.g. Everybody Loves Raymond’s Brad Garrett and Entourage’s Jeremy Piven). Jesse Tyler Ferguson benefits from the fact that he is the most consistent if you take a look at the performance of the cast season-wise. In his submitted episode, he deals with his plans to surprise Cam with a birthday celebration with plans ranging from a Wizard of Oz theme to a party in the deck. If voters want to spread the wealth and reward all Modern Family cast first, then I can see Jesse Tyler Ferguson taking home the Emmy this year. First time Emmy nominee Max Greenfield instantly managed to make it to the final Emmy list this year. That is probably why his character Schmidt is also one of the most popular and most loved in the series. It also helps him that his submission gave him screen time, range, and impact when the character of Zooey Deschanel confronted him with his OC condition. His only hindrance from the trophy is that he has to overcome four Modern Family men with four Modern Family tapes. Bill Hader should be proud of the fact that he is the first male regular Saturday Night Live cast member to get nominated in this category since they started competing here in 2008. Also, since cast member Kristen Wiig officially exited the show last season, he’s the only possible nominee from the show to return next year. His surprise nomination (over the likes of Chris Colfer and Nick Offerman) is most likely due to his  famous Stefon skit, and he rightfully submitted an episode that highlighted that. However, I don’t think this will bring him anywhere to the Emmy podium next month. Two time nominee Ed O’Neill seems to suffer from the fact that he had a weak season altogether, so he has lesser options than last year where in I’m pretty sure he came in second. This year, he submitted an episode where in he helped his granddaughter overcome stage fright by dancing with her. While it tugs to the heart, his exposure was so short and he must just rely with the episodes submitted by his co-stars. All in all, I think he just have to sit this year out and wish for better material next year. 2010 winner Eric Stonestreet had a hit or miss season in totality, but he’s lucky that he got a winning tape with his submission. In “Treehouse”, he took a bet that he can manage to get a single woman’s number and convince her that he’s straight. What’s good about this episode is that it puts Cam front and center and far from the usual Cam and Mitch bickering. However, his role is somewhat polarizing and if viewers are mixed on loving and hating it, that won’t necessarily end with a second Emmy for the actor.

It is noteworthy to mention that once a single show receives three or more nominations in a single field, the winner usually comes from that show as proven by Sex and the City in 2004, Desperate Housewives in 2005, Grey’s Anatomy in 2007, and Modern Family the past two years. With that said, I’m expecting that the winner comes from Modern Family again this year. If they choose to spread the wealth, expect Jesse Tyler Ferguson to win. If they go with overdue factor, Ed O’Neill might pull off an upset. If they based it on a single episode, Eric Stonestreet might repeat. But if they take into consideration all factors, then Ty Burrell gets a repeat win. I’m currently betting on that.

Prediction: 
Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
Dark Horse: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”
Complete Rankings:
1. Burrell
2. Ferguson
3. Greenfield
4. Stonestreet
5. O’Neill
6. Hader