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87th Oscars Predictions: October Edition   2 comments

We’re getting closer to the busiest months of awards prognostication as we reach the end of the year. At this point in the race, only American Sniper, Unbroken, Selma, Interstellar, Into the Woods, A Most Violent Year and Big Eyes are left among those in play for major nominations this year. But then again, we’ve had word on majority of the contenders already and we’re just awaiting for other factors to have a complete look on the race. This month, I’ve already added my predictions for the Foreign Language Film category considering that in two weeks time, we’ll hear the official complete list from AMPAS.

I’m still a bit bullish on Unbroken while quite confident in Selma, despite both being unseen. And I’m quite ready to predict that American Sniper will be Clint’s Oscar comeback. It’s also interesting to see the crowded Lead Actor race, as we’re bound to get a snub or two the way Tom Hanks was last year and John Hawkes was the year before. My current bet is on Eddie Redmayne to come close but solidify his chances for next year’s The Danish Girl, but I might still change my mind in the months to come. Anyway, here are my complete predictions in 19 different categories

picture

 

directing

 

 

lead actor

 

lead actress

 

supp actor

 

supp actress

 

screenplay

 

animated flf

 

techs 1

 

techs 2

 

techs 3
Total tally of nominations:

10 – Interstellar, Selma
8 – Gone Girl, Birdman
– The Imitation Game, Unbroken
5 – Boyhood, Into the Woods
4 – American Sniper, Foxcatcher, The Theory of Everything
3 – Exodus: Gods and Kings
2 – Big Eyes, Godzilla, Mr. Turner, Whiplash, Wild

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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87th Oscars Predictions: September Edition   5 comments

After skipping last month to pave the way for the Emmys, the monthly Oscar predictions are back (and with a new look to boot!). Now that festivals are coming one after the other (Telluride and Toronto have already started) and New York and AFI will soon come ahead of us, it’s time to clear the air on a lot of these contenders! I’ve also started to predict the rest of the categories (except Song, Foreign Language Film, and Documentary because duh, we need a shortlist for those). Anyway, here we go with the September batch of predictions!

*You can click the photos to read the write-ups in full (especially in the Best Picture category)

best picture

best director

best actor

best actress

best supporting actor

best supporting actress

Screenplay

Techs 1

Techs 2

Techs 3
Current tally of nominations:

9 – Birdman, Gone Girl, Interstellar
7 – Selma
6 – Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Unbroken, The Imitation Game
5 – Into the Woods
2 – Wild, Big Eyes, Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Mr. Turner, Godzilla, The Hobbit, Fury

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

2012 Independent Spirit Awards Nominees   Leave a comment

Here we go. Oscar season is definitely in the air, and as always, the first to announce (but the second to the last to reward) their nominees is the Independent Spirit Awards. There’s  a lot of surprises among the nominees, but as a reference, here are those who got a nod:

Best Feature

“Beasts of the Southern Wild”
“Bernie”
“Keep the Lights On”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Screenplay

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (“Moonrise Kingdom”)
Zoe Kazan (“Ruby Sparks”)
Martin McDonagh (“7 Psychopaths”)
David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
Ira Sachs (“Keep the Lights On”)

Best Director

Wes Anderson (“Moonrise Kingdom”)
Julia Loktev (“The Loneliest Planet”)
David O. Russell (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
Ira Sachs (“Keep the Lights On”)
Benh Zeitlin (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”).

Best Female Lead

Linda Cardellini (“Return”)
Emayatzy Corinealdi (“Middle of Nowhere”)
Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
Quvenzhane Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (“Smashed”)

Best Male Lead

Jack Black (“Bernie”)
Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”)
John Hawkes (“The Sessions”)
Thure Lindhardt (“Keep the Lights On”)
Matthew McConaughey (“Killer Joe”)
Wendell Pierce (“Four”)

Best Supporting Female

Rosemarie DeWitt (“Your Sister’s Sister”)
Ann Dowd (“Compliance”)
Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”)
Brit Marling (“Sound of My Voice”)
Lorraine Toussaint (“Middle of Nowhere”)

Best Supporting Male

Matthew McConaughey (“Magic Mike”)
David Oyelowo (“Middle of Nowhere”)
Michael Pena (“End of Watch”)
Sam Rockwell (“7 Psychopaths”)
Bruce Willis (“Moonrise Kingdom”)

Best Documentary

“How to Survive a Plague”
“Marina Abramovic: The Artist Is Present”
“The Central Park Five”
“The Invisible War”
“The Waiting Room”

Best International Film

“Amour” (France)
“Once Upon a Time in Anatolia” (Turkey)
“Rust and Bone” (France)
“Sister” (Switzerland)
“War Witch” (DR Congo)

Best First Feature

“Fill the Void”
“Gimme the Loot”
“The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
“Safety Not Guaranteed”
“Sound of My Voice”

Best First Screenplay

Rama Burshtein (“Fill the Void”)
Rashida Jones and Will McCormack (“Celeste and Jesse Forever”)
Jonathan Lisecki (“Gayby”)
Derek Connolly (“Safety Not Guaranteed”)
Christopher Ford (“Robot & Frank”)

Anyway, the biggest buzz so far comes from the eligibility of The Silver Linings Playbook which was supposed to be ineligible due to its post 20 million budget (which is the only rule for your film to qualify as indie). However, inside talks say much of the credit goes to Harvey Weinstein who did his magic tricks in order for the film to make it here. It has been said that he is also the one responsible for The Artist being eligible in all categories here last year when it should have contended in the Foreign Language Film category. Oh well. If there’s one lesson you must learn, it’s that you should never underestimate the powers of Harvey Weinstein.

Here are other reactions:

* Surprising to see the outpour of love for Matt McCounaghey. Does this mean he’ll go all the way to an Oscar nod? Not sure yet, but this increases his buzz. On the other hand, the Dwight Henry snub is perplexing. He badly needs this especially since he is ineligible for the SAG and definitely miss the Globes. He’s already near DOA territory.

* Aside from Dwight Henry, some notable snubs include Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch), Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha), Richard Gere and Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage), Logan Lerman and Ezra Miller (Perks of Being a Wallflower), Robert de Niro (The Silver Linings Playbook), and Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy).

* It’s gonna be an easy feat for Jennifer Lawrence to sweep all the way to the Oscars. I was really pushing for at least one Quvenzhane Wallis speech. Damn you, Harvey.

* Yay for the nods of Michael Pena, Rosemarie Dewitt, Ann Dowd, Bruce Willis, Perks of Being a Wallflower, Rust and Bone, and Once Upon a Time in Anatolia! Yayyy. All well deserved. Moonrise Kingdom also gets a good showing here. I wonder if it’s enough to keep momentum all the way to the Oscars. A Screenplay nod is almost assured though.

* Linda Cardellini’s self campaign paid off. Though we’ll see if she gets to cross over at the SAG voters. Usually, it’s the end for too good performances in too little indie films, so enjoy the moment Ann Dowd and Mary Elizabeth Winstead.

*Lastly, for the wins, I’d say Silver Linings Playbook, David Russell, John Hawkes, Jennifer Lawrence, Matthew McConaughey, and Helen Hunt will easily take the trophies a day before the Oscars.