Archive for the ‘emmy 2013 predictions’ Tag

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Miniseries or Movie   Leave a comment

movie miniseries

 

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Warm Springs[CORRECT] and “Empire Falls[WRONG]
2006:
The Girl in the Cafe[CORRECT] and “Elizabeth I[CORRECT]
2007:
Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee[CORRECT] and “Prime Suspect: Final Act[WRONG]
2008:
Recount[CORRECT] and “John Adams[CORRECT]
2009:
Grey Gardens[CORRECT] and “Generation Kill[WRONG]
2010:
You Don’t Know Jack[WRONG] and “The Pacific[CORRECT]
2011:
Downton Abbey[CORRECT]
2012:
Game Change” [CORRECT]

Now that we’re done with the three acting categories here (Haven’t made up my mind yet on who’ll win Lead Actress), it’s time to move on with the main program award by discussing the Best Movie or Miniseries category. It’s almost a moot to even tackle each category comprehensively, as there seems to be a clear winner here already. The Steven Soderbergh directed film Behind the Candelabra is obviously winning the top prize. With great reviews, a historic Cannes competition participation, and overwhelming reception, this is one of the easier to predict wins for the night. The closest runner-up I can come up with is Sundance Channel’s Top of the Lake which also received unanimously great reviews and probably the little contender that could.

As for the others, despite American Horror Story: Asylum dominating the nominations with a whooping 17(!) nods and topping all the other programs this year, it will clearly follow the path of its predecessor last year safely winning an acting award (or two). The mere fact that it continues to dominate the noms yet it can’t break through the directing AND writing categories speaks volumes about its actual support in the Academy. Phil Spector is the typical HBO filler category year like what Hemingway & Gellhorn was last year and You Don’t Know Jack was the year before. It contains two movie stars in lead roles, but doesn’t really have anything else in its corner.

After History’s history breaking ratings with Hatfields & McCoys last year, they continue to beat their own record in terms of ratings for miniseries, with The Bible this year. Sadly for them, the nomination for their achievement is their main reward seeing that it only got in two other categories. As for Political Animals, you can use the same analogy to Phil Spector, only replace HBO with USA.

As I’ve mentioned, it will be an easy win for Behind the Candelabra, and may I say deservedly so? J

Prediction: Behind the Candelabra
Runner-Up: Top of the Lake

Full Rankings:
1. “Behind the Candelabra
2. “Top of the Lake
3. “American Horror Story: Asylum
4. “Phil Spector
5. “Political Animals
6. “The Bible

If you want, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie   Leave a comment

supp actor miniseries

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Paul Newman, “Empire Falls[CORRECT]
2006:
Jeremy Irons, “Elizabeth I[CORRECT]
2007:
Thomas Haden Church, “Broken Trail[CORRECT]
2008:
Tom Wilkinson, “John Adams[CORRECT]
2009:
Tom Courtenay, “Little Dorrit[WRONG]
2010:
David Strathairn, “Temple Grandin[CORRECT]
2011:
Guy Pearce, “Mildred Pierce[CORRECT]
2012:
Ed Harris, “Game Change” [WRONG]

Hi, you are still following my 2013 Emmy coverage, and I’m in the middle of doing my Emmy predictions for this year (you can check lead actor in a miniseries  and supporting actress in a miniseries). Now it’s time to move the spotlight to the supporting actors of the past year’s miniseries TV movies and miniseries. This is a fairly good bunch of nominees, with John Benjamin Hickey being a pleasant surprise nominee, and with supposed to be 2x Emmy nominee this year (but ended up with 0 nods in total) Jeffrey Tambor for Phil Spector.

This year, we get two actors from American Horror Story: Asylum nominated here. Oscar nominee James Cromwell is up for his turn as the asylum doctor. This is such a departure from his most prominent perceived work in Babe: Pig in the City. Alongside him is movie star Zachary Quinto who already won the Critics Choice TV Award in this category for his performance in the same show. Between this and his summer movie Star Trek, Quinto has the advantage over his co-star.

If there’s one actor who I possibly thought has a shot in getting nominated here for The Big C: Hereafter, it’s three time Emmy nominee Oliver Platt. That’s why I’m surprised (and a great one at that) that it ended up with John Benjamin Hickey getting the nod instead. As the unique and standout brother of Cathy Jameson, Hickey’s performance is very noticeable and easy to warm up to, and it can work in his favor among voters in this category.

Peter Mullan is not a household name in the United States though many here have already heard him before in his previous roles in other Jane Campion production. In Top of the Lake, he takes a role that I can call as a vital supporting one. Think of John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone or Dwight Henry in Beasts of the Southern Wild. With a female lead in tow, he gets the biggest male role and it’s usually one that gets awards. However, with his close to unknown status, I don’t know if Emmys will reward him with the win.

Lastly, there’s Scott Bakula. At first, it’s really surprising how he ended up being the lone supporting actor rewarded with a nomination for Behind the Candelabra (as opposed to more predicted co-stars Rob Lowe and Dan Aykroyd). But one does need to know that he was elected an important position among the Screen Actors Guild just this year, and that usually translates well with Emmy voters. His performance in the Soderbergh directed drama is okay, and if he manages to win, it’s not even the worst among past winning performances here in this category.

With no solid frontrunner in this category, the Emmy could actually go to any of the five nominees. With that said I’ll probably go the safe route and predict the SAG chairperson for the win. This somehow reminded me of the same category in 2009 with then SAG president Ken Howard winning despite not a stand out role for Grey Gardens. I’m using the same argument here in predicting Scott Bakula for the win. If not him, then the buzz for Zachary Quinto might end up with an Emmy win alongside his TV CCA win.

Prediction: Scott Bakula, “Behind the Candelabra
Runner-Up: Zachary Quinto, “American Horror Story: Asylum

Full Rankings:
1. Scott Bakula, “Behind the Candelabra
2. Zachary Quinto, “American Horror Story: Asylum
3. John Benjamin Hickey, “The Big C: Hereafter
4. Peter Mullan, “Top of the Lake
5. James Cromwell, “American Horror Story: Asylum

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie   Leave a comment

actor miniseries

It’s Emmy season!

Over the next few weeks, I’ll be posting my Emmy predictions in 23 different categories before we head on the actual ceremonies on September 22. And as always, we’ll tackle one category at a time, and this year will begin with Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie.

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Geoffrey Rush, “The Life and Death of Peter Sellers[CORRECT]
2006:
Donald Sutherland, “Human Trafficking[WRONG]
2007:
Robert Duvall, “Broken Trail[CORRECT]
2008:
Paul Giammatti “John Adams[CORRECT]
2009:
Kevin Bacon, “Taking Chance[WRONG]
2010:
Al Pacino, “You Don’t Know Jack[CORRECT]
2011:
Edgar Ramirez, “Carlos[WRONG]
2012:
Kevin Costner, “Hatfields & McCoys” [CORRECT]

If there’s any indication that HBO dominates the Emmys, one does not need to look any further, as this category’s nominees were all from HBO produced films. Let’s start the discussion with the Cannes entry Behind the Candelabra. Playing renowned pianist Liberace, five time Emmy nominee Michael Douglas gets career best reviews for his physical transformation as the gay musician. With the rate of these reviews are going, it’s pretty easy to say he’s the frontrunner in this category. However, most of his screentime is shared with co-nominee and co-star Matt Damon who played Liberace’s lover Scott Thorson. While both are co-leads in the film, it’s easier to see that Douglas is the main star of the show and has the advantage over Damon.

As for Parade’s End‘s Benedict Cumberbatch, he’s the obvious weak link in this group, and his nod rooted from his movie star success of Star Trek during the nomination period. It must be noted though that this is his second consecutive nomination here, as he’s also nominated for Sherlock this year, so if there’s some left over love for that, then he can possible score more votes. Isn’t it unfair that Toby Jones always has to go for the lesser buzzed versions when he plays real life people such as his Capote performance in Infamous being released shortly after Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Oscar winning performance of the same character? The same can be applied again as his role as Alfred Hitchcock in The Girl has to contend in TV movies when the feature film Hitchcock was just released last year. Anyway, Jones was Hitchcock personified in his performance, but the total lack of interest over the TV movie definitely speaks about his chances.

Then there’s Al Pacino. Pacino is 2/2 in this category winning the first time for Angels in America in 2004 and then again for You Don’t Know Jack in 2010. For Phil Spector, he donned in the wigs and transformed into the main character and was given lots of baity scenes to work on. Plus they showered the TV movie with a lot of nominations as well.  If voters are not fond of Behind the Candelabra, I can see them going for Pacino.

With that said, I still think that it’s Michael Douglas’ to lose. He’s a five time Emmy nominee who hasn’t won any Emmy yet (and his first nomination was 39 years ago) while getting career best reviews for this performance. He also gets to play a “challenging” role which involved lots of physical transformations in it. If not him, you can count Matt Damon to win his first Emmy though. Either way, Behind the Candelabra will score a win in this category.

Prediction: Michael Douglas, “Behind the Candelabra
Runner-Up: Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra

Final Rankings:
1. Michael Douglas, “Behind the Candelabra
2. Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra
3. Al Pacino, “Phil Spector
4. Toby Jones, “The Girl
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, “Parade’s End

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl