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66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 4: Drama   Leave a comment

Hi there everyone! You’re still reading Tit for Tat’s 66th Emmy coverage. For the past three days, I have been sharing to you my predictions on who I think will be up for Emmy awards for this year. So before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the official nominees in the Reality and Variety, TV Movie and Miniseries, and Comedy genres, let’s finish this prediction series with the most serious genre of them all: drama!

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Directing

• Boardwalk Empire, Farewell Daddy Blues (Tim van Patten)
• Breaking Bad, Felina (Vince Gilligan)
• Downton Abbey, Episode 1 (David Evans)
• Masters of Sex, Pilot (John Madden)
• True Detective, Who Goes There (Cary Fukunaga)

Sixth nominee: House of Cards, Chapter 14 (Carl Franklin)

And let’s begin with Directing. Despite Boardwalk Empire falling off the Series and Lead Actor nods that they received during the show’s first two seasons, it’s safe to say that they haven’t lost their touch yet with the directors voting branch. For its past three seasons, the show has received two wins out of four nods, so we can all rely on Tim van Patten receiving his fourth consecutive nomination in here for the season finale Farewell Daddy Blues. You can also count on Downton Abbey to get in here since they’re very strategic about this whole Emmy process that they submit only one episode, so if the voters want to reward the show, Episode 1 is their only option to do so. Probably the most buzzed directorial achievement this year, Cary Fukunaga’s eight minute long track shot in True Detective’s Who Goes There isn’t only a nominee sure bet, but a frontrunner for the win as well. And can we talk about how this category loves its pilots and finales? Yep that’s right. Thus, I’m predicting one a piece for the pilot of Masters of Sex directed by Shakespeare in Love director John Madden, and of course, the finale of Breaking Bad by creator Vince Gilligan. Watch out for House of Cards though since it is the current champ in this category.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Writing

• Breaking Bad, Felina (Vince Gilligan)
• Breaking Bad, Ozymandias (Moira Walley-Beckett)
• Downton Abbey, Episode 1 (Julian Fellowes)
• Game of Thrones, The Children (David Benoiff, D.B. Weiss)
• True Detective, The Secret Fate of All Life (Nic Pizzolatto)

Sixth nominee: Mad Men, Waterloo (Carly Wray, Matthew Weiner)

As for the writing, it’s safe to assume that all these Downton Abbey fans in the Academy will simply check it off the Writing and Directing ballot so a nod here is expected (just like the past two years). After years of snubbing, Breaking Bad finally entered the race last year with two nominations, and I expect them to have the same fate this year — one for their finale Ozymandias and the other for their most submitted episode in the Emmy ballot, Felina. Unlike Downton Abbey though, True Detective only has one writer for the whole season; thus it can only submit one episode for consideration, so I’m expecting all its supports to push The Secret Fate of All Life to make it in here. As for the last spot, despite the show being a flashier directorial bet, it seems like the writers branch is the oen appreciative of Game of Thrones given their two nods here for the last two years. Therefore, I placed it here for their season finale episode.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Guest Actor

• Michael Bowen, “Breaking Bad
• Beau Bridges, “Masters of Sex
• Dan Bucatinsky, “Scandal
• Nathan Lane, “The Good Wife
• Robert Morse, “Mad Men
• Pedro Pascal, “Game of Thrones

Seventh nominee: Louis Gossett Jr., “Boardwalk Empire

Well let’s begin with curent champ Dan Bucatinsky. Without spoiling anything, I think he’s not only in for a consecutive nod, bur he’s very much in for a consecutive win as well with that very baity episode. And since there’s no Michael J. Fox in tow, it paves the way for a repeat Nathan Lane nod as he’s the torchbearer of The Good Wife in this category for this year. Robert Morse of Mad Men has been nominated here four out of the last six times he’s eligible, and with a buzzed season he had, it’s safe to assume he’ll be back in the line up again. The same buzz surrounds Game of Thrones actor Pedro Pascal (and that’s solely not for his shirtless photo that he posted!) and with Game of Thrones‘ haul looking to be its biggest year by far, he’ll definitely be in for the ride. Then there’s semi-favorite Beau Bridges. His lauded performance in Masters of Sex already assures him of a nod, but the fact that he’s been nominated here twice the past four years means he has more support than expected. As for that last spot, I’m giving it to Breaking Bad actor Michael Bowen since I think this will be a redux of the Mark Margolis nom two years ago. He’s in the scenes most with the leads, and that can spread the wealth to his impending nod.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Guest Actress

• Kate Burton, “Scandal
• Jane Fonda, “The Newsroom
• Allison Janney, “Masters of Sex
• Lisa Kudrow, “Scandal
• Carrie Preston, “The Good Wife
• Diana Rigg, “Game of Thrones

Seventh nominee: Margo Martindale, “The Americans

Aside from current champ Carrie Preston of The Good Wife and current frontrunenr Allison Janney of Masters of Sex, this is quite a lukewarm category as compared to its male counterpart. Sure there’s Dame Diana Rigg whose season wasn’t as sure like the last one, but I don’t see the Emmys dropping her easily this year, so I’m predicting a nod for her. Then there’s Jane Fonda who can’t even win last year with her legend status and baity tape, and with The Newsroom being less of a factor at all, I can see her missing. That said, she’s been visible lately with her tribute, so maybe another nod isn’t totally out of reach. Then for the last two spots, I’m going a bit heavy on Scandal guest actresses. First, there’s Emmy winner Lisa Kudrow. Though her guest appearance doesn’t scream “sure Emmy contender”, I think hers is one of the most buzzed guesting of the TV drama season that she can coast to a nod for it. It’s not surprising if she misses though especially since Kate Burton is also in contention. Shonda Rhimes made Kate Burton a multiple time nominee here for Grey’s Anatomy before, I easily think she can do a repeat of that, this time for her role in Scandal.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Supp Actor

• Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey
• Josh Charles, “The Good Wife
• Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
• Dean Norris, “Breaking Bad
• Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
• Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan

Seventh nominee: Charles Dance, “Game of Thrones

Both previous winners Peter Dinklage and Aaron Paul are safe already methinks. And in the tradition of farewell shows getting in more nods for their cast (see Kristin Davis in Sex in the City in 2004, Matthew Fox in Lost in 2010), I expect Dean Norris to finally snatch a nomination for himself as well. I’ve been adamant about Jim Carter, but I already made the mistake of dropping him last year only to be fooled when the noms were announced. So I’m sticking for him now. With how his fate in the show shocked the whole TV crowd, I expect Josh Charles to get his second nod for The Good Wife three years after he received his first. As for that last slot, I think the Globes affirmed more than ever on how it values its movie stars, Jon Voight will get that veteran slot for his first season performance in Ray Donovan. If not him, then maybe Game of Thrones adds another acting performance via another veteran, Charles Dance.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Supp Actress

• Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife
• Emilia Clarke, “Game of Thrones
• Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey
• Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad
• Michelle Monaghan, “True Detective
• Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey

Seventh nominee: Bellamy Young, “Scandal

Clusterfuck. That’s what this category is. Well let’s start with the regulars. Current champ Anna Gunn, 2012 winner Dame Maggie Smith, and perennial nominee Christine Baranski are the three safest in this line up that’s for sure. Then as for the other three, I’m going with a repeat of Emilia Clarke’s nod simply because I think Emmy has a disconnect with who owns which season when it comes to nominating actors from Game of Thrones. If she managed to get in last year with that lackluster of a season, I wouldn’t have high expectations that she will be dropped this year for doing less of that. Then there’s Michelle Monaghan, who I’m really not convinced. It seems like True Detective was 80% McConaughey and 20% Harrelson, that they won’t even care about the others. I can see a scenario where someone who makes sense to get nominated suddenly is nowhere to be found (Nicollette Sheridan in 2005, Corey Stoll last year), though I’m counting on Monaghan’s C-list movie star status to somehow help her here. The last spot is the riskiest of them all, as I’m going with a comeback narrative for Joanne Frogatt simply because her storyline the past season is too in your face to ignore. I have Bellamy Young as a replacement just because I find it weird if Scandal gets five(!) acting nominations and it’s not even close to be a Series contender, so I think she’s the most vulnerable.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Lead Actor

• Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad
• Jon Hamm, “Mad Men
• Woody Harrelson, “True Detective
• Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
• Michael Sheen, “Masters of Sex
• Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards

Seventh nominee: James Spader, “The Blacklist

Talk about crowded. This category has at least 10 names in contention that makes a whole lotta sense. Let’s begin with Bryan Cranston. We actually can end it now with Cranston as well, but yeah he’s sooo getting in. Then there’s 2x Oscar winner Kevin Spacey. Sure his name didn’t exactly bring him to the podium last year, but this is a tailor made role for him that he’ll be a mainstay at these awards shows even if the show has already faltered. I think regardless of Mad Men‘s fate as a whole, Jon Hamm is another of those perennial nominees that will still get in, so I think he’s safe, albeit a bit vulnerable, for this year. And let’s go to the newbies. As for starters, we have the pair of True Detective actors here, and I predict both of them getting in. Well McConaughey is the more obvious one, and I see him contending for the win as well, but I’m going with Harrelson too since I predict that they’ll just check both of their names off. Plus this is not a priority vote ranking that will hurt the latter. That said, I won’t be surprised if he misses though since as I mentioned above, True Detective was 80% McConaughey and 20% Harrelson. As for that last slot, I contemplated going with James Spader, and he makes sense actually since he’s in a hit show and it’s a comeback performance, and this category really loves him (I mean come on, he won over James Gandolfini for the last season of The Sopranos). Then there’s also Downton Abbey‘s Hugh Bonneville and current champ Jeff Daniels of The Newsroom, but I think we’d see the start of decline of Downton starting this year and The Newsroom is as DOA as one can get per HBO standards. Thus, I’m going with previous Emmy nominee Michael Sheen since I;m quite confident of Masters of Sex delivering on Emmy nomination day.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Lead Actress

• Claire Danes, “Homeland
• Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey
• Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel
• Juliana Margulies, “The Good Wife
• Kerry Washington, “Scandal
• Robin Wright, “House of Cards

Seventh nominee: Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men

And here’s another crowded one. Let’s begin by saying that despite Homeland turning into some mega shit show for its third season, Claire Danes still rises above the occasion, and I don’t think she’ll be snubbed ala Margulies last year. After all, she’s still the reigning champ in here. Speaking of Margulies, I believe that last year was just a fluke and a case where everyone thought she’s safe already that’s why they’re spreading the wealth (like how Allison Janney was snubbed in 2005), and with The Good Wife‘s heavily buzzed season, she’s so coming back for another nomination. If Robin Wright managed to get in last year for a borderline supporting role, I see no problem for her getting in this year again with even a winning tape in her hands. I’m sticking with Michelle Dockery still just because I really don’t think they’d dropped anything Downton that quick, and I have Hugh Bonneville as the sacrificial lamb of the show already. Kerry Washington who can’t even win for the love of God a Golden Globe or a SAG for Scandal, has a stronger narrative last year than this year, but I think she’s still safe at least this year. As for that last spot, I keep going back and forth with Elisabeth Moss and Vera Farmiga, but I really don’t think they’ll drop the Oscar nominee instantly especially after her surprise nomination last year as opposed to Mad Men who’s on a decline with their nods. Now watch them nominate all seven of them now.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Series

• Breaking Bad (AMC)
• Downton Abbey (PBS)
• Game of Thrones (HBO)
• House of Cards (Netflix)
• Masters of Sex (Showtime)
True Detective (HBO)

Seventh nominee: Mad Men (AMC)

As if we haven’t had any headaches with the Drama categories yet, but yes, Series is tough to predict. Unless, you know, they go with seven nominees. Bu let’s assume there are only six. I think we can separate them into this: Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and True Detective are safe no matter what. They’re clearly the upper tier in this one. No matter what happens to the rest of the line up, we can expect to see these three here. And then I’d go and say Downton Abbey is fourth here. Like I’m sure you’re also wondering who effin still supports Downton Abbey, the answer is: Emmy voting panel. I’d love to be wrong here, but let’s not kid ourselves. Then we have Showtime’s slot. I think Masters of Sex is being quite underrated as a whole, but this is clearly Showtime’s priority this year, and they have been doing a smooth run for its campaign. I think this will be the surprise of the contenders here. For that last spot, there’s Mad Men who is a 4x champ and has been nominated for all of its seasons by far, but really, the show’s buzz has just been absent all along. Not even at the guild precursors. It’s literally MIA as far as buzz is felt, though who knows? After all, the Emmys are the last group to react to buzz of shows. Then there’s also House of Cards. After its premiere last February, the show has been eclipsed by it’s Netflix sister Orange is the New Black. But to its favor, there’s still some clout left under its rug, and this is Netflix’ drama priority while Mad Men plays second fiddle to Breaking Bad. there’s a big chance they’d go seven nominees still (or even The Good Wife making that comeback), but for now I’d choose House of Cards by a small  margin.

Finally it’s over! Are you excited for the announcement later? Do you think Mad Men will be able to maintain its perfect Series nomination record? How much of Downton Abbey will go down in terms of nominations? And can Jeff Daniels overcome the jinx and get a chance to retain his title? Go on and share your thoughts in the comments section. 🙂

Don’t forget you ca follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 2: TV Movie and Miniseries   2 comments

Hey again guys! If you may not know (as if that blog header isn’t obvious enough), we’re still on our Emmy week here at Tit for Tat as we gloss over the possible Emmy nominees before Carson Daly and Mindy Kaling announce them on Thursday morning. Yesterday, I started this four part series of predictions by going over the Reality and Variety categories. This time, we’ll be tackling the eight major categories of the Movie and Miniseries genre. Let’s get started!

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Writing

• Dancing on the Edge (Stephen Poliakoff)
• Fargo, “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” (Noah Hawley)
• Luther (Neill Cross)
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (Shawn Slovo)
• The Normal Heart (Larry Kramer)
• Sherlock: His Last Vow (Steven Moffat)

Alternate:  Treme, “To Miss New Orleans

Well aside from The Normal Heart and Fargo, it’s really difficult to pinpoint which direction the voters will go to. I’d have Luther in simply because the last time the show was eligible, it also received a nod in this category. Then Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight won the WGA for Adapted Screenplay albeit a field of two only. Then what I’ve noticed in this category is that they love ’em British pieces. They might not nominate them for the bigger series awards, but the writing branch always have a soft spot for them; thus, I’m going with Sherlock. And lastly, Dancing for the Edge seems like a filler nod for either Writing or Directing, and I’m palcing it here since it’s less competitive than Directing.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Directing

• Fargo, “Buridan’s Ass” (Colin Bucksey
• Fargo, “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” (Adam Bernstein)
• The Hollow Crown, “Henry IV: Part II” (Richard Eyre)
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (Stephen Frears)
• The Normal Heart (Ryan Murphy)
• The Trip to Bountiful (Michael Wilson)

Alternate:  The White Queen, “The Final Battle

The two surest contenders here are definitely Ryan Murphy (at this point, The Normal Heart will just steamroll its way to a lot of nominations) and Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight because come on it’s Stephen Frears. And he’s a well known film director. Plus it’s from HBO. Fargo’s “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” seems like a good bet as well since it’s the pilot of the show, and I’m certain Fargo will get in here. That said, I’m predicting two episodes from the show to get nominated. Aside from the pilot, I also have Buridan’s Ass which has that major shooting episode (it’s Ep 6 for you casual viewers). It’s one of Fargo‘s most buzzed episodes of the series and I think it can penetrate the race. The Trip to Bountiful seems like a better directing contender than a writing one that’s why I’m putting it here instead of Writing. As for the last spot, I think it’s gonna be one of those epic fantasy episodes, so it’s between The White Queen’s Final Battle versus The Hollow Crown’s Henry IV: Part II. I’m going with the latter simply because of the name recognition.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Supp Actress

• Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Coven
• Jacqueline Bisset, “Dancing on the Edge
• Ellen Burstyn, “Flowers in the Attic
• Julia Roberts, “The Normal Heart
• Allison Tolman, “Fargo
• Vanessa Williams, “The Trip to Bountiful

Seventh nominee: Audra McDonald, “The Sound of Music Live!

What a crowded category. There’s like ten women in actual contention for this usually barren category. Let’s begin with the easy guesses. There’s Julia Roberts. In a friggin TV movie. In her wheelchair. Throwing papers. I can go on and on but you get the point now. She’s in. Then there’s Kathy Bates too. At this point, I think there’s a slow decline of Emmy love for American Horror Story in general that’s why I’m predicting her as the only supporting actress nominee from this show. If only this was a weak year or if AHS was in its first or second season (both are not), I’d be more lenient with her inclusion. Then there’s an unknown by the name of Allison Tolman? I know you’re probably thinking “Who?”, but this is TV’s biggest breakthrough performances of the season. This is a friggin’ Oscar winning role, and I see her even being the dark horse for the win. Speaking of win, Golden Globe winner Jacqueline Bisset is also in my predictions list simply because her role is something that is a regular in this category.And her Globe win, as infamous as it was, put her to some sort of public consciousness.  Current champ Ellen Burstyn is also in contention, and I think a repeat nod is possible. Sure Flowers in the Attic is no Political Animals, but this is the category that nominated her for a 14 second performance in 2006. They love her here. The last spot is between two Tony nominees: Tony queen Audra McDonald is the only redemption of The Sound of Music Live! and her current Tony good will might translate to a nod, but my bet is on 3x nominee Vanessa Williams reprising her Broadway role here.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Supp Actor

• Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart
• Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
• Colin Hanks, “Fargo
• Joe Mantello, “The Normal Heart
• Jim Parsons, “The Normal Heart
• Blair Underwood, “The Trip to Bountiful

Seventh nominee: Frank Langella, “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

This one is basically the extension of The Normal Heart cast with five of their men eligible in this category. That said, I’ll only be predicting three, as I don’t see anything beyond that possible. Of course there’s winner frontrunner Matt Bomer who is the surest guy from the show here. I’m also rpedicting Jim Parsons since it’s somewhat of a departure from him, and he’s current champ (in Comedy Lead Actor) that they won’t shy from giving him double nominations this year. Lastly, I have Joe Mantello since he’s “breakdown” moment is one of the most talked about. It’s a clip made for awards show purposes plus he’s a veteran that I won’t be surprised Emmys going for it. As for the other three guys, I’m going with Martin Freeman to repeat the same nod he got in 2012 for the previous season of Sherlock. I’ quite confident with Colin Hanks as well since he’s the only one that FX is campaigning here (which means no Oliver Platt), so that bodes well for his chances. I’m going with Blair Underwood for the last spot as Cicely Tyson’s son since this is a Tony nominated role, and I fail to see him missing here.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Actress

• Helena Bonham Carter, “Burton & Taylor
• Toni Collette, “Hostages
• Rebecca Ferguson, “The White Queen
• Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Coven
• Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Coven
• Cicely Tyson, “The Trip to Bountiful

Seventh nominee: Whoopi Goldberg, “A Day Late and a Dollar Short

If the three other acting nominees are somewhat stacked, consider this the Debbie Downer of the group with the lack of possible nominations. I guess it’s safe to begin with Jessica Lange since she’ll easily be nominated for the show’s third season. She won Supporting the first year and was nominated here for the second season, and a third consecutive one is already expected. Cicely Tyson is a sure bet too. She literally translated her Tony winning performance and she’ll likely add “Emmy winning” too come awards ceremony on August. It doesn’t hurt as well that it’s also an Oscar winning role, so a trifecta of best Actress wins for this will be quite historic.  Then there’s Globe and SAG nominee Helena Bonham Carter. She was already recognized for this at the earlier awards show, and it’s not as if this category is full to even consider her missing. Rebecca Ferguson is the unknown here but playing the title role of a Miniseries contender doesn’t hurt her. I’d be more cautious if this was only a field of five, but it’s not. Emmy winner Toni Collette also has a bid via her failed CBS series Hostages. I expect this to be a repeat of Ashley Judd’s nom in 2011 when she got in for a more star studded line up. If Judd made it in a five nominee line up, what more for Emmy champ Collete? The last spot can either go to Whoopi Goldberg or Sarah Paulson. There’s a reason why Goldberg’s EGOT win has an asterisk beside the E, it’s because she hasn’t won a Primetime Emmy yet. Therefore, it’s quite clear Emmy isn’t totally fond of her, thus making me give the last spot to Sarah Paulson who is hitting some career best stride the past few years and was nommed in Supporting for the last two years.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Actor

• Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
• Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Dancing on the Edge
• Idirs Elba, “Luther”
• Martin Freeman, “Fargo
• Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart
• Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo

Seventh nominee: Christopher Plummer, “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

Okay so it didn’t sound as competitive in this category when True Detective announced it will compete in Drama instead, but it makes the prediction part easier. As for starters, the pair of British actors Benedict Cumberbatch and Idris Elba are likely to repeat their nods they got for their roles as Sherlock and Luther respectively. Both of them competed in 2011 as well. Then Cumberbatch’s Sherlock co-star and buddy Martin Freeman is poised to get double acting nominations as he gets one for Fargo as well alongside Billy Bob Thornton. Then it boils down to three Oscar nominees (and one winner). Mark Ruffalo is as sure as one can get, and he’s also one of the frontrunners to win for his role as the gay protagonist in The Normal Heart. While I keep on switching back and forth with Christopher Plummer and Chiwetel Ejiofor, I’d be giving the last slot to the latter since his momentum is pretty much fresher with his Oscar nod earlier this year.

OUTSTANDING MINI SERIES:

Miniseries

• American Horror Story: Coven (FX)
• Dancing on the Edge (Starz)
• Fargo (FX)
• Luther (BBC America)
• The White Queen (BBC America)

Sixth nominee: The Hollow Crown (BBC America)

Of all years where they decided to separate the TV movies and miniseries again, they went with this year goddamit. Anyway, both the FX series are sure things here. American Horror Story got in the last two years and Fargo is the de facto frontrunner here. Luther is poised to make a comeback here as well especially in a weak field. Then in the battle of large ensemble dramas, I’d go with Dancing on the Edge as the first one since this flashy period piece works well in this category. I’m leaning with The White Queen in my last spot though simply because I felt it has an overall mainstream appeal than The Hollow Crown, but all I know is that it’s a slot reserved for BBC America.

OUTSTANDING TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

TV Movie

• Killing Kennedy (national Geographic)
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (HBO)
• The Normal Heart (HBO)
• Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS)
• The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime)

Sixth nominee: Burton & Taylor (BBC America)

As if they still need to have nominees here since The Normal Heart is gonna sweep this away (and deservedly so), but for the sake of competition, the four other nominees here would definitely be Sherlock: His Last Vow. Why the show decides to submit here instead of Miniseries when they can compete now is beyond me. Then you have Lifetime’s The Trip to Bountiful. It’s an acclaimed TV movie and at this point, a Lifetime show is bound to get in so it being their top contender also makes it a surer bet. National Geographic’s Killing Kennedy is a buzzed TV movie as well even reaping nods at the SAGs for its lead actor, so with a divided field for TV Movie and Miniseries, there’s a huge chance of it happening. The last spot, which I call the HBO slot, is reserved for that lesser buzzed HBO TV movie. After all for every Game Change, there’s a Hemignway & Gellhorn. For every Behind the Candelabra, there’s a Phil Spector and for every Temple Grandin, there’s a You Don’t Know Jack. So for this year’s The Normal Heart, I’d go with Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight since it’s the more buzzed one than that other HBO TV movie Clear History whom despite having a more known cast, has a nonexistent presence at the race at all.

There you have it. How many The Normal Heart guys are you predicting in Supporting Actor? Can Whoopi Goldberg change her Daytime Emmy to a Primetime one? And how do you feel if NBC’s Rosemary Baby Suddenly enters the race? Pipe them in the comments section below.

Tomorrow, ready your tummies for the hilarity that will ensue as we discuss the Comedy categories.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 1: Reality and Variety   Leave a comment

Hi everyone! This week is a special week long Emmy coverage here at Tit for Tat! Before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the official 66th Emmy nominees on Thursday, I’ll be doing a four-parter prediction post to cover who I think will be nominated in 30 different categories. And like in the past three years, we’ll begin with the Reality and Variety categories.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION SERIES:

Reality Competition

• The Amazing Race (CBS)
• Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
• Project Runway (Lifetime)
• Survivor (CBS)
• Top Chef (Bravo)
• The Voice (NBC)

Seventh nominee: So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

This category rarely does some major shake up if history is to be looked at. The Amazing Race has consistently been nominated since the inception of the award and has a perfect track record of 11 nominations by far. Project Runway meanwhile has been nominated 9 times, Dancing with the Stars got in eight times, while one time winner Top Chef  has stayed in this category for the past seven years. Thus, it’s easy to assume all will be getting in easily again. And then there’s current champion The Voice. With no other singing competition in the mix right now (Idol hew?), it’ll easily grab a spot as well and try to be the other multiple winning show here. Now as for the last spot, I’d say it’s between Fox’s So You Think You Can Dance and Survivor from CBS. SYTYCD has been nommed here for the last three years and it makes sense that we’ll have the same line up again considering how barren this category is, but Survivor has achieved a creative resurgence in terms of critical and commercial aspects that I think this once 4x nominee will make a comeback since it last got in back in 2006.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION HOST:

Variety Host

• Tom Bergeron, “Dancing with the Stars
• Anthony Bourdain, “The Taste
• Carson Daly, “The Voice
• Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance
• Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn, “Project Runway
• Jane Lynch, “Hollywood Game Night

Seventh nominee: Phil Keoghan, “The Amazing Race

Despite six slots in contention this year, this still feels like a very crowded race. Probably it’s because they combined reality show with reality competition hosts in here. Let’s start with the last two champs in this category: 2011 winner Tom Bergeron and last year’s pair of winners, Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn. With both their shows still showing signs of strength in the Reality/Competition category, I think they are shoo-ins thus far. Cat Deeley seems like another good bet, though I won’t be surprised if both she and her show would miss this year. Then there’s also Anthony Bourdain from The Taste. After getting the surprise nod last year, I think he’ll be a consecutive nominee for it. And while it’s no sure thing, I’ve quite grown confidence with Carson Daly because one, he’s the host of the current Reality/Competition winner. Second, he will be doing the Emmy nomination announcement and more often than not, it bodes well to one of the two announcers. Lastly, I’m predicting Jane Lynch to cross over with a nod here. After her last year’s surprise comeback in Comedy Supporting Actress, it’s clear she has her fans within the voting bloc. I think that will translate to a support here just like how Betty White got in here after being shafted in the acting races.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES

Variety Series

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Seventh nominee:  Late Show with David Letterman (CBS)

There’s a huge chance we’d be getting the same line up as from last year. The only possible factor I can see making waves is if David Letterman’s retirement. And that’s a real possibility. But for now, don’t fix if it ain’t broken – when predicting at least.

REALITY PROGRAM

Reality Series

• Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
• Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives (Food Network)
• Mythbusters (Discovery Channel)
• Shark Tank (ABC)
• Undercover Boss(CBS)
• Who Do You Think You Are? (NBC)

This category is very much confusing in terms of possible nominees since some winners suddenly get left out the following year. That said, I’m sticking with the same line up form last year except for the ineligible Deadliest Catch. In its place, I’m going with the NBC celebrity story Who Do You Think You Are? which was nominated also back in 2012.

There you have it! 🙂 Tomorrow, I’ll be going on the eight categories in the longform section (TV Movie, Miniseries, four acting categories, Writing and Directing). Do not hesitate to write your predictions in the Comments section as well.

And by the way, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 4: Drama   Leave a comment

Hi everybody. I’m here to post the missing piece of my Emmy predictions this year. As what I already mentioned, the nominations for the 65th edition of TV’s highest honor will be revealed on Thursday by Kate Mara of House of Cards and Aaron Paul of Breaking Bad. If you have been following this blog, I have been slowly revealing my predictions during the past few days as I already covered reality and variety, the TV movie and miniseries, and comedy genres. To finally complete it, here are my predictions in the drama categories:

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama directing

• Boardwalk Empire, Two Imposters (Allen Koutler)
• Breaking Bad, Fifty One (Rian Johnson)
• Game of Thrones, The Rains of Castamere (David Nutter)
• Homeland, Q&A (Lesli Link Glater)
• House of Cards, Chapter 1 (David Fincher)

Sixth nominee: Downton Abbey, Episode 4 (Jeremy Webb)

After last year’s surprising Directing upset, it is not safe to dismiss Boardwalk Empire at all in this category. While both the finale Magrate Sands and Two Imposters are very competitive, I’d go with Allen Koutler’s directed episode as their nomination. Breaking Bad really finds it difficult to penetrate the Writing series, but the same can’t be said in the Directing ones. The Rian Johnson (yes, of Looper) helmed episode is also their most buzzed eligible contender, so Fifty One is a good bet for the nod. After the Blackwater snub last year, one can say for sure that Game of Thrones  is no shoo-in here, but the critical and overwhelming buzz for the Rains of Castamere episode will definitely do the trick for the show. Current series champ Homeland can expect a nom here too, and Q&A is their safest submission. And to close this one out, Oscar nominee David Fincher can welcome an Emmy nomination for his direction of the pilot episode of House of Cards.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama writing

• The Americans, Pilot (Joe Weisberg)
• Homeland, New Car Smell (Meredith Stiehm)
• Homeland, Q&A (Henry Bromell)
• Mad Men, In Care Of (Matthew Weiner, Carly Wray)
• Thew Newsroom, We Just Decided To (Aaron Sorkin)

Sixth nominee: Downton Abbey, Episode 4 (Julian Fellowes)

There are two types of episodes that click well in the writing categories: pilot shows and episodes of Emmy drama series champs. With that said, favorite Aaron Sorkin is back in contention for penning the pilot episode of The Newsroom. While the series is a hit or miss, the pilot episode is enough to seal the nomination in this category. The same can be applied to Joe Weisberg and his pilot of The Americans which is one of the lauded pilots the past television season. Perennial favorite nominee Matthew Weiner can still sneak in another nomination despite Mad Men slowly fading away from Emmy radar. I’m going with the season finale, though any Weiner episode can actually fill its place.  As for the remaining two spots, after their surprise win in this category last year, I’m predicting a one two punch of nods for the back to back episodes of New Car Smell and Q&A from Homeland to complete this category.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama guest actor

• Dylan Baker, “The Good Wife
• Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife
• Rupert Friend, “Homeland
• Harry Hamlin, “Mad Men
• Nathan Lane, “The Good Wife
• Ray Romano, “Parenthood

Seventh nominee: Jim Beaver, “Justified

Drama guest actor is one of the most difficult categories. You don’t know if the Emmys want to reward character actors or movie stars in it. Sometimes they prefer the former, and the other times, they’re in the mood to reward the latter. With that said, I’m sensing that The Good Wife will once again dominate this category. Michael J. Fox and Dylan Baker are nominees from last year that can easily repeat (Specifically Fox). I also see Nathan Lane’s upstaging role to give him another Guest Actor nod this year, only this time in the drama genre. Rupert Friend is one of the most memorable additions to Homeland the past season, and with the show definitely expanding its acting nomination, I can see him getting in along the ride. A Mad Men actor has always been present too since the show’s inception in 2007, and I feel the tradition will continue this year as Harry Hamlin gets nominated. The last slot is between three actors: Matthew Perry in The Good Wife,  though four guys from the same show is overload here, Jim Beaver in Justified though let’s see how the reception for that show is. I guess I’ll stick with multiple Emmy winner Ray Romano for his turn in Parenthood to get the last nom.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama guest actress

• Stockard Channing, “The Good Wife
• Joan Cusack, “Shameless
• Jane Fonda, “The Newsroom
• Shirley Maclaine, “Downton Abbey
• Martha Plimpton, “The Good Wife
• Diana Rigg, “Game of Thrones

Seventh nominee: Linda Cardellini, “Mad Men

This category is full of big names this year, and they can easily fill up the list for the final nominations here. As for starters, Oscar winners Jane Fonda and Shirley Maclaine will easily get in for their turns in The Newsroom and Downton Abbey respectively. Last year’s winner Martha Plimpton is in for another round of nomination in this category, and the same is predicted for Shameless’ Joan Cusack. Stockard Channing is too much of an Emmy favorite for her to get snubbed in an actors show such as The Good Wife so I can see her easily getting in. The last spot is for past Emmy winner Dame Diana Rigg who is one of the most lauded parts of the third season of Game of Thrones.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama supp actor

• Jonathan Banks, “Breaking Bad
• Rob James-Collier, “Downton Abbey
• Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
• Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland
• Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
• Corey Stoll, “House of Cards

Seventh nominee: Sam Waterston, “The Newsroom

This is a category that I see can go to many directions, so it’s really difficult to come up with a final list here. Aside from the past two winners in this category Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage, I think everyone is possibly vulnerable to be snubbed. Mandy Patinkin, who was surprisingly snubbed last year, benefits from Homeland winning the top drama category, so he can easily get in this year. Like last year with Giancarlo Esposito, I think another character actor from Breaking Bad will get in alongside Aaron Paul, and this year seems poised for a Jonathan Banks nomination. Corey Stoll is a scene stealer in House of Cards and if the Emmys throw a lot of support to the show, then you can expect him to be nominated too. As for the last spot, I can easily see it to TV veteran Sam Waterston since his name alone can easily attract buzz, but with the WTF results this category gave last year, I guess they’ll still nominate one of Downton actor, and Rob James-Collier’s is the type of role that they love to reward. and thus, I’m going with my guts and predicting him.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama supp actress

• Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”
• Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad”
• Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men”
• Elizabeth McGovern, “Downton Abbey”
• Monica Potter, “Parenthood”
• Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”

Seventh nominee: Archie Panjabi, “The Good Wife”

Dame Maggie Smith, Christine Baranski, and Anna Gunn are all safe bets for nominations this year. I actually think Christina Hendricks is safe for another nomination, though the real issue is if her season long performance merits it. But then again, it did not prevent others from getting extended Emmy nos for their shows. I also think that Elizabeth McGovern’s shift in the supporting categories will do her favors and receive her second Emmy nod for the show for this season. I’m skipping 2010 winner Archie Panjabi for the mere fact that her storyline this season received unanimous negative criticisms, and I think it will instead open up a slot for another actress. I predict that the final slot will g to Monica Potter as her arc this season received major waves of buzz, and with critical support to push her in, she can be the face of network shows in this category. I do think though that getting the nomination is her biggest hurdle, but once she gets in, she can be very competitive for the win. With this as NBC’s only shot in the drama categories, I see them doing all the means for her to get in.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama lead actor

• Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire
• Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad
• Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom
• Jon Hamm, “Mad Men
• Damien Lewis, “Homeland
• Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards

Seventh nominee: Matthew Rhys, “The Americans

Lead Actor doesn’t seem to have much of a shake up as compared to the other drama acting categories this year. After all, Steve Buscemi, Bryan Cranston, Jon Hamm, and Damian Lewis are all sure bets to be nominated again this year. As for the last two spots, I’m expecting the movie star factor plus the juicy role makes Kevin Spacey a shoo-in to be nominated for his House of Cards performance. As for the last spot, while Downton Abbey’s Hugh Bonneville or Dexter’s Michael C. Hall are both eligible, they might go with veteran Jeff Daniels who already reaped Golden Globe and SAG nods for his performance in The Newsroom. If not him, then watch Matthew Rhys of The Americans to be the other newbie here.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

drama lead actress

• Glenn Close, “Damages
• Claire Danes, “Homeland
• Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey
• Juliana Margulies, “The Good Wife
• Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men
• Kerry Washington, “Scandal

Seventh nominee: Keri Russell, “The Americans

Now this one has a plethora of contenders that all have legit chances of making it in the final line up. But since only six will be nominated, I’ll probably start filling them up with current champ Claire Danes who will likely end up with the win here as well. Aside from her, I expect another past winner Julianna Margulies to come back again for her fourth bid in this category. Then we have perennial nominee Elisabeth Moss as another sure bet to hear her name being called here. Michelle Dockery has benefited a lot since her nomination last year, and she’s likely to be in here as well. Kerry Washington’s big narrative on how a black woman leads a primetime network show is too big to ignore, and I can’t imagine the outcry and backlash that will happen if she fails to get nominated this year. That’s why I think she will get in. Then there’s Tatiana Maslany. Maslany is really in a weird position; the nature of the show hurts her as others can see it as too gimmicky and the network isn’t big enough to push her. However, she certainly has the buzz and is making rounds of mentions among different pundits. As for the last spot, the trio of newcomers Keri Russell in The Americans, Robin Wright in House of Cards, and Oscar nominee Vera Farmiga in Bates Motel is really too tempting to predict, but expect the voters to throw a bone to 2x winner here and consistent nominee Glenn Close for her final season in Damages.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES:

drama series

Breaking Bad (AMC)
Downton Abbey (PBS)
• Game of Thrones (HBO)
Homeland (Showtime)
House of Cards (Netflix)
Mad Men (AMC)

Seventh nominee: The Americans (FX)

There isn’t much of a stiff competiton in this race as compared to its comedy counterpart. Five nominees from last year are sure to be back with only Boardwalk Empire in mixed position. To be fair, Boardwalk Empire did solidly well in the different television guilds earlier this year that if it gets in for a third time, it’s not something that will shock us. However, there are two strong competitors for that last slot. First, we have the FX show The Americans. The difficult thing with The Americans is that no one can gauge how the reception of Emmys will be to the show. I can see a scenario where it gets in for Series, Lead Actor, and Lead Actress, but at the same time, I can also see a picture where in it miss all three. If only they made a more aggressive campaign, then they can easily reserve a slot here. Maybe next year? Or in a seven show race? In the end, I’m giving my last slot to Netflix’s House of Cards. I think at least one Netflix show will be in contention for the top genre award and while both Arrested Development and this one can get in, I think House of Cards has more things going for it such as the star power of the people involved and the overall reception to the season. That factor pushes it over both Boardwalk Empire and The Americans for that elusive sixth slot.

Finally done! Whew! Who are you rooting for in the drama categories? Can The Americans actually penetrate the main categories? How many The Good Wife actors will be nominated in Guest Actor? And can Vera Farmiga, Keri Russell, or *gasp* Tatiana Maslany actually happen? :)

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 3: Comedy   Leave a comment

Hi everyone! It is still Emmy season over here at Tit for Tat, and I’m currently doing a four part blog post on who can find themselves nominated for TV’s top honor. As you may all know, the nominations will be revealed on Thursday, July 18 by Emmy winner Aaron Paul and Kate Mara. Since we’re done tackling the reality and variety, as well as the TV movie and miniseries genres, it’s time to move to the two biggest ones: comedy and drama. For this part, we’ll be focusing on the funny antics of television’s comedies.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy directing

• Arrested Development, Off the Hook (Mitchell Hurwitz, Troy Miller)
• Girls, On All Fours (Lena Duham)
• Louie, New Year’s Eve (Louis CK)
• Modern Family, Goodnight Gracie (Steven Levitan)
• 30 Rock, Hogcock!/Last Lunch (Beth McCarthy-Miller)

Sixth nominee: Modern Family, Party Crasher (Fred Savage)

Last year’s nominees Lena Dunham and Louis CK can find themselves nominated again this year for both of their directorial efforts in their respective shows. Louie has the advantage of submitting only one episode, but while the same cannot be said about Girls, Lena’s only directing submission can tower their show’s other submission. The finale episode of 30 Rock is also a safe bet for a nomination; after all, Beth McCarthy-Miller, despite 0 wins here, has been nominated multiple times already. Like Louie, Arrested Development only submitted one episode here, which makes them a shoo-in already. As for the last spot, it is the director’s branch that continuously loves to embrace Modern Family giving the show six nods in its first three seasons. I feel the lovefest will be continued as its season finale will reap up a nod for creator Steven Levitan.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy writing

• Arrested Development, Blockheads (Mitchell Hurwitz, Jim Vallelly)
• Girls, One Man’s Trash (Lena Duham)
• Louie, Daddy’s Girlfriend Part 1 (Louis CK)
• Modern Family, Goodnight Gracie (Steven Levitan, Jeffrey Richman)
• 30 Rock, Last Lunch (Tina Fey & Tracey Wigfield)

Sixth nominee: 30 Rock, Hogcock! (Jack Burditt & Robert Carlock)

Surprise, surprise. But I’m predicting the same five shows to be nominated for both Writing AND Directing Emmys this season. This means that my prediction is off base already. But then again, it seems like the Academy will be going for the same mindset as well. After being snubbed last year, I expect current winner Modern Family to be back in this race with their season finale episode, which is reminiscent of their stronger seasons. The pair of actor slash director slash write combo of Lena Dunham and Louis CK is still hot in Emmy’s eyes, and that results to at least a piece of Writing nods for their shows Girls and Louie respectively. Following their strategy in the Directing category, Arrested Development only submitted one episode here too, which makes it a shoo-in among its fans in the community. The last spot I give to the series finale of 30 Rock as the show is well loved by the writing block giving it lots of nominations and wins over the course of the show.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy guest actor

• Will Arnett, “30 Rock
• Matthew Broderick, “Modern Family
• Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory
• Martin Short, “Saturday Night Live
• Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live
• Patrick Wilson, “Girls

Seventh nominee: Ben Stiller, “Arrested Development

Will Arnett is the definition of a staple in this category. Over the years, he has been nominated multiple instances already for his role in 30 Rock, and I see them giving him one last nod for the show’s final season. There’s always an SNL performer nominated in this category ever since they start including them here, and for this year, alum Martin Short and 2x Emmy winner in this category Justin Timberlake are their best shots. Aside from SNL, Modern Family does really good with their guest actors in the show with the likes of Nathan Lane and Greg Kinnear getting nominated. This year, I expect Matthew Broderick to be the show’s rep in one of their most memorable episode this season. Still Emmyless TV legend Bob Newhart is finally in contention to have his first Emmy for his scene stealing role in The Big Bang Theory. The last slot I usually reserve for a movie star who does some buzz worthy memorable TV performance of the past season, and this year it’s Patrick Wilson for his controversial turn in Girls.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy guest actress

• Kate Hudson, “Glee
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live
• Liza Minnelli, “Arrested Development
• Sarah Jessica Parker, “Glee
• Elaine Stritch, “30 Rock
• Kristen Wiig, “Saturday Night Live

Seventh nominee: Elizabeth Banks, “Modern Family

I’m warning you now. This is one big mess of a prediction in this category. But let’s try to digest. First, just like last year, Melissa McCarthy’s SNL hosting duties is a shoo-in for a nomination. Add the fact that she might be snubbed for Comedy Lead Actress, and this is the perfect venue to nominate her. Joining her last year was SNL alumna Maya Rudolph, but this year it is four time nominee Kristen Wiig. Then we have Elaine Stritch. Yes, she was snubbed last year, but with how empty this category is, they might go back to one of its previous winners. Then we’d have Liza Minnelli. It’s interesting to note that the show has never garnered any Guest Acting nom. Yes, you’re reading it right. So the likes of Henry Winkler and Charlize Theron and Julia Louis Dreyfus have all been snubbed. But why am I predicting her? Lucille is a staple character in the show, and this might be Emmy’s way of correcting that past mistake. I’m not predicting any Louie actresses because I don’t know if the Emmys love the show to the point of nominating someone else whose name is not Louis CK. I’m not predicting Elizabeth Banks as well because of the fact that while Modern Family does great with their guest actors, the same can’t be said about their guest actresses: Shelley Long, Ellen Barkin, Minnie Driver. So if Elizabeth Banks didn’t make it during her first eligible year, then I don’t know how she’ll make it this year. That leaves me with… Glee. I know, I know. But this is the only category that loves that show the last few years and they always have a nominee in this category for its first three seasons. This year, I’m going with Kate Hudson’s buzzworthy turn as the NYADA instructor Cassandra July, and Sarah Jessica Parker’s comeback Emmy nod after her 2004 win.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy supp actor

• Will Arnett, “Arrested Development
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family
• Max Greenfield, “New Girl
• Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family
• Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family

Seventh nominee: Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”

Probably the most crowded category this year, I can name five or more actors that can still find their names in the final list. As for starters, there’s Simon Helberg in The Big Bang Theory, Jeffrey Tambor in Arrested Development, Tony Hale in Veep, Adam Driver in Girls,  and even host Neil Patrick Harris  in How I Met Your Mother. However, I’m sticking with the four Modern Family men in this category. The Emmys are always a season or two late when they do category overhaul, and last year proved that the show still has its clout in the Academy. The only thing that will convince me to remove any of them is when the Emmy start to actually do so. Until then, all of them are predicted here. Max Greenfield continues to be filling the scene-stealing over the top character that Neil Patrick Harris once filled, so it is safe to say he’ll be back again. And with many Arrested Development guys in contention, I’d be sticking with the one that has the flashiest performance in the group, and that happens to be Will Arnett.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy supp actress

• Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory
• Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
• Kaley Cuoco, “The Big Bang Theory
• Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family
• Jessica Walter, “Arrested Development
• Alison Williams, “Girls

Seventh nominee: Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock

We all know by now that the two Modern Family women are safe, so there’s no point in discussing that. With The Big Bang Theory getting even bigger as each season passes, I’m expecting last year’s surprise nominee Mayim Bialik to retain, and fan favorite Kaley Cuoco to finally be nominated along the ride. Jessica Walter is a past nominee for her performance in Arrested Development and she can fill in the TV veteran slot of the group. The last spot I give to newbie Alison Williams. it is pretty much destined that Girls will expand their acting noms in their succeeding seasons (just like how the other HBO female comedy Sex and the City did), so for now, I’m adding one Girls star and I think it’ll be Williams. I don’t know what to make of Krakowski’s chances, especially since they snub her strongest season last year for the likes of Merritt Wever, so while even if this is the show’s final season, the Emmys have a habit of forgetting you completely once they’re over you.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: 

comedy lead actor

• Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock
• Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development
• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies
• Louis C.K, “Louie
• Jon Cryer “Two and a Half Men
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory

Seventh nominee: Matt Leblanc, “Episodes

For this one, past Emmy winners in this category Alec Baldwin and Jim Parsons can be counted as locks already. The same can actually be said about Jon Cryer. I have come to the conclusion that maybe the Emmy voters really see something in his performance that they keep on nominating him year after year after year after year. Once they finally drop him is when I’ll start to drop him in my predictions too. If you have been reading this blog from the beginning, you’ve noticed that I keep on reiterating that Louis CK is very much loved by the Academy, so that makes him a shoo-in as well. The last two slots can either go to any of three past nominees. The strange thing about it is that they’re all one time nominee only, so it’s hard to gauge how the Emmys will respond to them. But I’m going with Jason Bateman with the Arrested Development residual love, and movie star confidence vote in Don Cheadle. If all else fails, see Matt LeBlanc reap up his second nod for Episodes.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

comedy lead actress

• Zooey Deschanel, “New Girl
• Lena Dunham, “Girls
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
• Tina Fey, “30 Rock
• Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation

Seventh nominee: Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly

Basically, if there’s anything that our seven women lineup last year taught us, it’s the fact that you just have to choose who to drop here.  The triumvirate of SNL alumnae of current winner Julia Louis Dreyfus, Tina Fey, and Amy Poehler are sure bets here. The same can be said for the “female Louis CK” Lena Dunham. Then you have Edie Falco, who’s like the perennial Emmy favorite, and I don’t see her being dropped by the Academy this year. That leaves us with Zooey Deschanel and Melissa McCarthy. It’s actually easy to say that McCarthy has the upper hand since she’s a past winner in this category and she’s the only representative of the traditional comedy set up. However, they can also reward her in Comedy Guest Actress. With that said, I’m sticking with it girl Zooey Deschanel whose show received major buzz for its second season.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:

comedy series

• The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Girls (HBO)
Louie (FX)
Modern Family (ABC)
30 Rock (NBC)
Veep (HBO)

Seventh nominee: Arrested Development (Netflix)

First, let me say that I’m expecting that the final line up will actually consist of seven nominees. But I’m sticking to six just because it’s really the actual number of nominations here. Okay so where do I even begin? Let’s go with current champ Modern Family. I don’t see a scenario of it getting snubbed. Period. The same can be said for CBS’ The Big Bang Theory. With its huge ratings, it is very much expected that it’ll also get in. 3x Emmy champ 30 Rock is another sure contender. After all, it is the final season of a once Emmy favorite. You can’t go wrong with that. Then you’d have Girls. As much as it is a very polarizing and divisive show, the Emmys has showered it with love last year, and as HBO’s watercooler show, I expect it to be in the final six too. Now here’s the part where it gets confusing. On one hand. there’s Arrested Development. It’s 2004’s Best Comedy Series winner, has a cult following, and the Emmys are one of the firsts who basically embraced it. However, its Netflix airing plus its puzzling critical reception makes it vulnerable for the top slot. On the other, you have Veep. It is a current nominee with high caliber Emmy magnet names that surround it. With that said, one can’t avoid seeing it as the Julia Louis Dreyfus show. If it gets nominated, I can’t see where it expands its nominations. It’s not a top contender for writing, directing, and not even acting. Where will the support come from then? Then you have Louie. Everything Louis CK touches makes it an Emmy contender. Everything that is, except getting in the Comedy Series category. Last year, we saw it even win Writing and getting nominated in Directing and Acting, and it has the critics on its side but it still failed to grab a Series nod. With no current season buzz to help it, I can’t help but think that it can follow the same trajectory as Roseanne. A show where in they love everything Roseanne related, but it still wasn’t able to get that Comedy Series nod. In the end, I dropped Arrested Development, as it’s the only show where I can see a scenario where in it gets a lot of nods but barely missing the top category.

Ooh that was long! Who are you rooting for in the comedy categories? Can Bob Newhart finally win an Emmy? Will all Modern Family guys make it in Supporting Actor? And what do you think among Arrested Development, Louie, and Veep will get the boot? 🙂

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 2: TV Movie and Miniseries   Leave a comment

Hi there! As what you have previously read, this is the Emmy week celebration for Tit for Tat. With nominations on the cusp of being unveiled by Breaking Bad‘s Aaron Paul and House of Cards’ Kate Mara, it’s time to guess who will end up being nominated on Thursday. I already posted the first part which covered the reality and variety categories here. This part, however, will focus on the TV Movie and Miniseries categories.

OUTSTANDING TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

movie miniseries
American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)
Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
The Bible (History)
Parade’s End (HBO)
Phil Spector (HBO)
Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)

Seventh nominee:  Political Animals (USA)

There are four shoo-in contenders in this category: Cannes entry Behind the Candelabra, Sundance series Top of the Lake, FX’s American Horror Story and The Bible from History. They are also the top priority contenders of each of their networks. As for the two remaining slots, it can either go to USA’s canceled Political Animals though there have been no canceled series that made it in this category since they were allowed to do that. The same can be said for Showtime’s The Big C  finale. So two slots will likely be between four HBO contenders: Mary and Martha, the Hitchcock related The Girl, but I guess I’ll go with Phil Spector just for the names involved in the project, and Parade’s End which seems to be right up their alley.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

movie mini lead actor

• Benedict Cumberbatch, “Parade’s End
• Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra
• Michael Douglas, “Behind the Candelabra
• Toby Jones, “The Girl
• Al Pacino, “Phil Spector

Sixth nominee: Kenneth Branagh, “Wallander

This is a pretty empty category in general, though four slots are already reserved in this category. The pair of Oscar winners Michael Douglas and Matt Damon are sure to find themselves nominated here for their work in Behind the Candelabra. The Same can be said for 2x Emmy champ in this category, Al Pacino, for Phil Spector. Toby Jones deglammed look as Alfred Hitchcock in The Girl will also be nominated. The last spot leaves us with Kenneth Branagh who has been nominated before for a previous Wallander performance, but I’m going with last year’s nominee Benedict Cumberbatch to latch on a consecutive nod, only this time for Parade’s End from HBO.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

movie mini lead actress

• Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Asylum
• Laura Linney, “The Big C
• Helen Mirren, “Phil Spector
• Elisabeth Moss, “Top of the Lake
• Sigourney Weaver, “Political Animals

Sixth nominee: Hilary Swank, “Mary and Martha

After her win in Supporting last year, Jessica Lange movies in this category this year for her role as the crazy nun in American Horror Story: Asylum. Biggest winner in this category Helen Mirren is also back with another bid this year alongside Al Pacino for Phil Spector. Elisabeth Moss can find herself double nominated this year, aside from her Best Actress Drama nod, as the lead in Jane Campion’s Top of the Lake. Sigourney Weaver already reaped Globe and SAG nods for her performance in Political Animals, so this Emmy nod is already expected. For the last spot, a vote splitting between Mary and Martha co-stars Brenda Blethyn and Hilary Swank can result to 3x Emmy winner Laura Linney benefiting for a last shot for The Big C.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

movie mini supp actor

• James Cromwell, “American Horror Story: Asylum
• Rob Lowe, “Behind the Candelabra
• Peter Mullan, “Top of the Lake
• Zachary Quinto, “American Horror Story: Asylum
• Jeffrey Tambor, “Phil Spector

Sixth nominee: Dan Aykroyd, “Behind the Candelabra

As the scene stealing supporting actor of the show, Peter Mullan is already expected to receive a nomination for his Top of the Lake performance. The same can be said for multiple nominee Rob Lowe in his role in Behind the Candelabra. If Arrested Development won’t give him the nod in Supporting Actor: Comedy this year, Jeffrey Tambor can still end up as a nominee as he’s a shoo-in for his Phil Spector role. The last two spots go to a pair of American Horror Story: Asylum contenders: James Cromwell for his role as former Nazi Dr. Arthur Arden, and with his current movie success, Zachary Quinto a.k.a Dr. Oliver Thredson.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

movie mini supp actress

• Ellen Burstyn, “Political Animals
• Frances Conroy, “American Horror Story: Asylum
• Holly Hunter, “Top of the Lake
• Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Asylum
• Alfre Woodard, “Steel Magnolias

Sixth nominee: Imelda Staunton, “The Girl

The Supporting Actress line up will likely be composed of Oscar and Emmy veterans this year. First we have the controversial Ellen Burstyn who makes her comeback in the same category that gave her major controversy seven years ago. This year though, she’s really competitive for her performance in Political Animals. Two of last year’s nominees here can find their way as consecutive nominees this year, and both are from American Horror Story: Asylum. Frances Conroy sneaked in a nod last year, and I expect the same to happen this year. Meanwhile, Sarah Paulson’s scene-stealing journalist is also a shoo-in nomination. Oscar and Emmy winner Holly Hunter is deglammed in pal’s Jane Campion’s Top of the Lake,  and that already equates to nomination. Closing the category is Emmy favorite Alfre Woodard, who gets in for almost anything, and an empty category like this just gives her another nod in her resume.

There you have it! Who are you predicting to get nominated in the movie/miniseries categories? Can we see a Jessica Lange really steamroll her way to another win or is Elisabeth Moss finally destined for Emmy gold? Is Michael Douglas really unbeatable? And can The Bible really make its way to the nominations? What do you think?

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 1: Reality and Variety   1 comment

Hey everybody! How are you all doing? It’s time again to reward the best of the best in the small screen, as the Emmy nomination announcement take place five days from now. Come July 18, House of Cards‘ Kate Mara and 2x Emmy winner Aaron Paul of breaking Bad will have the honors of unveiling this year’s nominees. Last year was really a sucky year for me in terms of my nominee prediction results, so I don’t know what’s in store for me this year. My prediction for the predictions will, once again, be divided into four parts: reality and variety, TV movie and miniseries, comedy, and drama. For now, let’s begin with reality and variety.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION SERIES:

reality competition

 

The Amazing Race (CBS)
Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
Project Runway (Lifetime)
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Voice (NBC)

Seventh nominee: Survivor (CBS)

There’s a big chance that we’ll be getting the same set of nominees as last year in this category. 9x winner The Amazing Race is still safe for another nom (and perhaps a win too). The same can be said for the only other winner in this category, Top Chef, perennial nominees Dancing with the Stars and Project Runway. Nigel Lythgoe’s American Idol seems settled on being not nominated again, but worry not as his So You Think You Can Dance can easily reap a thrid consecutive nom. The Voice, which is the biggest singing show in TV nowadays, is also poised to receive another nod and even a bid for the win. If any of these choices falter, then maybe another Mark Burnett show can sneak in, as Survivor is a past nominee in this category too.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION HOST:

reality competition host

 

• Carson Daly, “The Voice
• Tom Bergeron, “Dancing with the Stars
• Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance
• Phil Keoghan, “The Amazing Race
• Ryan Seacrest, “American Idol

Sixth nominee: Betty White, “Betty White: Off the Rockers

Current winner Tom Bergeron, Cat Deeley, and Phil Keoghan are all safe for the nomination now. American Idol might have fallen off the ATAS’ radar, but Ryan Seacrest is still a big TV personality, and I can still see him sticking in for another nomination, at least this year. As for the last spot, I won’t be shocked if it goes to Betty White. After all, Betty White is still a household name that they can easily check, or to Jeff Probst after snubbing him last year. However, I’m going with Carson Daly. While the coaches grab the buzz in the show, I’m expecting an increase in nomination for The Voice, and it might carry Carson Daly to a nod.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES

variety comedy series

• The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
• The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
• Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
• Late Night with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
• Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
• Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Seventh nominee:  Conan (TBS)

I’ve learned my lesson. Never ever predict a Real Time with Bill Maher snub until it actually happens. Until then, sorry Conan, you have to sit this one out.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SPECIAL

variety special

 

• Betty White’s Second Annual 90th Birthday: A Tribute to America’s Golden Girl (NBC)
• Kathy Griffin: Kennedie Center On-Hers (Bravo)
• Kennedy Center Honors (CBS)
• Louis CK: Oh My God (HBO)
• Rod Stewart: Merry Christmas, Baby (Great Performances) (PBS)

I just patterned this year’s batch of nominees from last year. You know they’ll reward Betty White somewhere, and this might be it. Kathy Griffin is a staple here, as well as the Kennedy Center Honors. Louis CK has been an Emmy darling the past few years, and you know they’ll find this way to nominate him some more. For the last spot, I’m predicting one of PBS” Great Performances this year, though a Mel Brooks nomination is also expected if one of them falters.

That’s it! First batch of predictions over. Next part will consist of the TV movie and miniseries categories. You can also write your predictions in the Comments section. 🙂

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl