Archive for the ‘emmys 2012’ Tag

PREDICTIONS: 64th Primetime Emmy Awards   Leave a comment

Here’s a short and complete list of who I’m predicting for tomorrow’s 64th Primetime Emmy Awards:

Outstanding Comedy Series: “Modern Family” (ABC)
Alternate: “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Alternate: Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Alternate: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
Alternate: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: Kathryn Joosten, “Desperate Housewives”
Alternate: Kristin Wiig, “Saturday Night Live”

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series: Robert Weide, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (“Palestinian Chicken”)
Alternate: Louis CK, “Louie” (“Duckling”)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series: Lena Dunham, “Girls” (“Pilot”)
Alternate: Chris McKenna, “Community” (Remedial Chaos Theory”)

Outstanding Drama Series: “Downton Abbey” (PBS)
Alternate: “Mad Men” (AMC)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
Alternate: Damian Lewis, “Homeland”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series: Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Alternate: Juliana Margulies, “The Good Wife”

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: Jared Harris, “Mad Men”
Alternate: Giancarlo Esposito, “Breaking Bad”

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey”
Alternate: Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series: Michael Cuesta, “Homeland” (“Pilot”)
Alternate: Vince Gilligan, “Breaking Bad” (“Face Off”)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series: Julian Fellowes, “Downton Abbey” [Masterpiece] (“Episode 7”)
Alternate: Semi Chellas & Matthew Weiner, “Mad Men” (The Other Woman”)

Outstanding Miniseries/Made for Television Film: “Game Change” (HBO)
Alternate: “Hatfields & McCoys” (PBS)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries/Made for Television Film: Bill Paxton, “Hatfields & McCoys”
Alternate: Clive Owen, “Hemingway & Gellhorn”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries/Made for Television Film: Julianne Moore, “Game Change”
Alternate: Nicole Kidman, “Hemingway & Gellhorn”

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries/Made for Television Film: Ed Harris, “Game Change”
Alternate: Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia”

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries/Made for Television Film: Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story”
Alternate: Judy Davis, “Page Eight”

Outstanding Directing for a Miniseries/Made for Television Film: Kevin Reynolds, “Hatfields & McCoys”
Alternate: Philip Kaufman, “Hemingway & Gellhorn”

Outstanding Writing for a Miniseries/Made for Television Film: Danny Strong, “Game Change”
Alternate: Bill Kerby, Ted Mann, Ronald Parker, “Hatfields & McCoys”

Outstanding Variety, Music, or Comedy Series: “The Daily Show With Jon Stewart” (Comedy Central)
Alternate: “Jimmy Kimmel Live” (ABC)

Outstanding Directing in a Variety Special: Louis CK, “Louis CK Live at the Beacon Theater”
Alternate: Glenn Weiss, “65th Tony Awards”

Outstanding Writing in a Variety Special: “The 34th Annual Kennedy Center Honors”
Alternate: “Betty White’s 90th Birthday: A Tribute To America’s Golden Girl”

Outstanding Reality/Competition Program: “The Voice” (NBC)
Alternate: “The Amazing Race” (CBS)

Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality/Competition Program: Betty White, “Betty White’s Off Their Rockers”
Alternate: Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance”

If I’m an Emmy Voter…   4 comments

Photo courtesy of emmys.com

Now that I’m done making my predictions for the Emmys tomorrow, I’ll try to fill the shoes of those who were tasked to judge the actual Emmy categories and be in a voter mood just this time. If I happen to vote on all the categories that will be presented tomorrow (plus the four guest acting awards), here’s how my ballot will look like:

DRAMA SERIES: Homeland (Showtime)

Mad Men has four already, and while they indeed had a great season again, I’d rather spread the wealth this year. Downton Abbey and Game of Thrones’s first seasons were better than the second one, I’ll wait for Breaking Bad’s series to end, and I think Homeland just brings the good week in and week out that I don’t see them topping this perfectly balanced first season; thus I’m throwing Homeland my vote.

LEAD ACTOR, DRAMA: Damian Lewis, “Homeland”

This is pretty much a non contest. Both Cranston and Lewis deliver Emmy winning performance. The only difference is Cranston was rewarded thrice already, yet Lewis has none. I’m giving Lewis my vote.

LEAD ACTRESS, DRAMA: Claire Danes, “Homeland”

I’m happy Danes is getting the surge in her career post-Temple Grandin, and that her wonderful acting abilities is put into good use. She might have won just two years ago, but she deserves this quick of a follow up.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA: Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad”

This was tough. Esposito was the villain of the season and he was actually good in Breaking Bad. This is also the last chance to reward Harris for years of consistent performance, but I can’t resist to vote for Aaron Paul who perfectly compliments Bryan Cranston every single time in Breaking Bad.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, DRAMA: Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men”

It’s really a bull that Mad Men is still Emmyless in terms of acting categories. Holloway owned this season like no other, so I’m giving my vote to her. Christine Baranski is a close second, but I’m totally voting for Miss Holloway.

GUEST ACTOR, DRAMA: Dylan Baker, “The Good Wife”

After watching his episode, he totally gave me Hannibal Lecter creeps. That’s enough to give him my vote.

GUEST ACTRESS, DRAMA: Joan Cusack, “Shameless”

What is she even doing in this category? I think she’s a solid supporting actress in her show. With that said, I’ve loved how she embraced this character perfectly and that tape just rocks on so many level.

WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES: Julian Fellowes, “Downton Abbey” (Episode 7)

After Homeland’s The Weekend shoutout here, I’m going with Fellowes Oscar-worthy screenplay for the Christmas episode. This is totally the saving grace of an uneven second season.

DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES: Vince Gilligan, “Breaking Bad” (Face Off)

From start to finish, the episode is riveting. Simply riveting.

COMEDY SERIES: Modern Family (ABC)

No Louie and Parks and Recreation on the list. I like both Girls and Veep, but I think they still ahsn’t developed the highest points of their series runs. Big Bang was more of a Big Blah this season. 30 Rock has had its shares of a threepeat here. Curb is a hit or miss for me. Easy vote goes to Modern Family.

LEAD ACTOR, COMEDY: Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”

It’s between Louis CK and Larry David, but the perennial nominee deserves it based on the long pedigree of consistent performance in his show. It’s actually too overdue to happen, but I would’ve voted for him in a heartbeat.

LEAD ACTRESS, COMEDY: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”

I love you Amy Poehler, and I’m happy you won the Pawnee elections, but the Veep had my vote.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”

By a mile, the only consistent and still refreshing cast member for the third season. He really deserves the Emmy.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, COMEDY: Kristin Wiig, “Saturday Night Live”

Bleh batch of nominees. Where’s Jane Krakowski? She should have been winning this thing. Srsly. With that, I’ll go for our favorite bridesmaid.

GUEST ACTOR, COMEDY: Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live”

It’s not even a competition. Fallon owned everybody in his category, and I’m ecstatic he actually won.

GUEST ACTRESS, COMEDY: Maya Rudolph, “Saturday Night Live”

I love you Kathy Bates, and I’m happy you can now call yourself an Emmy winner, but the moment Beyonce did Maya Rudolph is already a win worthy in my book. Distant second is Melissa McCarthy’s dress tasting skit.

WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES: Chris McKennan, “Community” (Remedial Chaos Theory)

I’m still over the moon with this nomination, and this only comes once in a blue moon, so why waste your time to not vote for it. This is the best nomination this whole Emmy season.

DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES: Louis CK, “Louie” (Duckling)

A.K.A a vote for all of his work for the show.

REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM: The Voice (NBC)

I have three favorite reality/competition shows: The Amazing Race, Top Chef, and The Voice. The first two ahve Emmys on their mantle already. It’s time to add a third companion on the list.

REALITY HOST: Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance” 

Only Deeley shows enough personality that sets her apart from being just the “instruction giver.” Other hosts should really take notes.

OUTSTANDING MINISERIES/TV MOVIE: Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)

I really don’t have any vote here. So anything other than American Mess Story is fine by me.

LEAD ACTOR, MINISERIES/TV MOVIE: Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock”

This is the perfect Sherlock performance that’s less mainstream and more convincing. Iron Man, take notes.

LEAD ACTRESS, MINISERIES/TV MOVIE: Nicole Kidman, “Hemingway & Gellhorn”

Say what you want about the quality of the whole TV movie but Kidman stand out front and center in this enriching performance that shows why she’s one of her generation’s top actresses.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, MINISERIES/TV MOVIE: Martin Freeman, “Sherlock”

Meh batch of nominees. Don’t think Harris is the stand out at all, and the others aren’t even close. Give O’Hare some props though.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS, MINISERIES/TV MOVIE: Sarah Paulson, “Game Change”

We all know Lange is winning and she deserves it, but Paulson is the real definition of a supporting actress in Game Change. She gets my vote.

How about you? Who will you be voting for if you were an Emmy voter? I’d love to hear your thoughts. 🙂

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Drama Series 2012   Leave a comment

While I had no doubts that Boardwalk Empire will earn a repeat nomination in this category, it’s chances are sadly slim to none. This show lost all the buzz and momentum that they had last year which could have catapulted to a regular second season series win. The only good thing on their side is that the second season was far more critically praised than the first one, but in between losing buzz and nominations, it seems like Boardwalk Empire must be content with just enjoying their nomination. Not even the name of Martin Scorsese can help it win on its freshman season, so the odds are definitely lower now.

After missing out a season of eligibility, Breaking Bad comes back and definitely with a bang. With increased nominations and more critical acclaims on its side, it is very fitting to assume that the show will definitely pick up a Series win. The only negative things about that is that I don’t see it happening this year. Slowly, we can see the whole Emmy voters warming up in terms of their reception regarding the show, and it will probably take next season or the final one (the last season is divided into two parts ala The Sopranos), for them to give this show the crown. As for now, we should just get contented with the fact that there are signs that show they really really like the show.

In my opinion, there are really two possible scenarios that Downton Abbey can end up to prior to the nomination announcement. They can be lukewarm about it, or they can go totally crazy about it. Obviously, with all the surprise nominations left and right, the Emmy voters finally have made their final say and stated how much they like this British period piece. Nominations in acting, directing, writing, and techs show the huge overall support that this show is getting. If there’s anything that can stop the lovefest that Emmy has towards Mad Men, I see the Downton Abbey train going it all the way to the podium come Emmy time.

Game of Thrones is the other HBO show nominated for the top award is on the opposite ends with Boardwalk Empire. While critics were pretty much divided this season, commercial acclaim definitely skyrocketed more than ever, now forming a cult following of their own. However, in terms of nominations, voters were pretty much lukewarm especially to their supposed big episode “Blackwater” which missed both the Directing and Writing categories. It seems like voters aren’t that excited about the show the way they were excited about it last year, but still passionately like it to nominate it. The way I see it though, there is no possibility for George RR Martin and team to be going up that stage to receive this award.

Prior to the unveiling of the nominations, Homeland seems to be the show that will unseat Mad Men in the top drama category for the first time. After all, it has superstars as leads, it’s on cable, and it’s the hot new critics favorite show of this season. While all of those factors still apply to its advantage, there’s this little show called Downton Abbey that grabbed all the momentum that should be going to this show. However, I still don’t think it’s the end for the series. If voters want some fresh blood that does not involve any Brits in it, then Homeland seems to be the clear alternate that voters are looking for. So, it is really not wise to knock their chances out yet.

Five for five hasn’t happened in the history of this category yet, but of course, there’s a large possibility that Mad Men is the show that can finally get that acclaim. Mad Men still pretty much buzzworthy in the frontrunner status delivering another winning season with wise submissions to boot. It is also not difficult to give the show an easy win especially when they still managed to nab the top award last year even with just Hairstyling as its only other award.

Just a week ago, I’m pretty certain that Mad Men will win this in a heartbeat. Remember all it needs is a Hairstyling Emmy and one can claim that odds will be perfect then. In a shocking twist of fate, Downton Abbey snatches Mad Men’s love relationship in that category. Is that an omen of what will happen once the envelop is opened? Sounds ridiculous, but I’m staying safe for now and predict Downton Abbey to stop mad Men’s historic fifth win.

Prediction: Downton Abbey

Dark Horse: Mad Men

Complete Rankings:

1. Downton Abbey
2. Mad Men
3. Homeland
4. Breaking Bad
5. Boardwalk Empire
6. Game of Thrones

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

The Big Bang Theory continues to dominate the ratings game, and it seems to fill in the “traditional sitcom” slot opted to one of the nominees every year in this category. As a matter of fact, that seems to be the only thing in their favor now as overall reception was that it was a weak season, and the nomination is purely because of lazy writing. When the types of Louie and Parks and Recreation gets snubbed in favor of highly rated shows, that’s when backlash begins. Seems like for this year, this is the show that takes the cake for the most bashed nomination award.

Curb Your Enthusiasm finished in another eligibility season, and of course easily makes it in the series line up. The thing with this show is that it’s the type of show that voters love to nominate but never give any award to. As a matter of fact, since its inception a decade ago, the total number of Emmys it received is one. It seems as though the pattern will be the same this year, though what’s working in its favor is that if it still loses, this will be the show that got the most nominations in this category yet still loses every single one of them. For that alone (and a little bit of weak competition), I expect that this is one of the years with their closest shot for a win.

Many shows comparably put Girls in the same sentence as “Sex and the City.” And while there can be some similarities you can see about the two, one thing you can add to that list is their Emmy fate. This year, Girls got 5 noms and four of them were for creator Lena Dunham. If it’s any indication, all the nominations this year were to recognize that the show existed and for Dunham as being the it girl of the year. With that being said, it’s the only show among this roster to get acting, writing, and directing nods so that probably says support to an extent. However, I think they will be waiting for the next few years first before giving this show the crown.

Current two time champ Modern Family is still in contention for a threepeat this year. While consensus say that this is the show’s weakest season, that still did not stop them from giving the show a boatload of nomination including seven for acting which includes all noms for the main adult cast of the show. It also got two directing nods, and while there is no writing nomination this year, it seems like the Modern Family train is still not stopping in terms of Emmy reception. With that said, it is easy to say that the show will win another trip on the way to the podium as they receive their third Comedy Series plum this year.

30 Rock is a former three time winner who gets consistently nominated all the years it is eligible for the top award. While the same happened again this year, this now remains to be the show that they will consistently nominate even if it has no chance on bagging the top trophy. The good thing about though is that this season definitely merits another Comedy Series as we get to see a resurgence of the top 30 Rock quality that gave the show Comedy Series Emmys. With their impending final season next year, they might be more competitive for a 4th win battle (between Modern Family) next year, but they sadly will sit this one out this year.

Veep, the surprising third HBO show to get a nomination in this category, happens to be this political themed show starring Julia Louis Dreyfus and helmed by Armando Iannucci. I think those two names alone plus HBO as the home company propelled this little show all the way to the top trophy nomination. With only three nomination under its belt this year, I see it follow the same pattern as Girls. The nomination serves as a way of the Emmy people to recognize that the show exists, and given the confidence that their next seasons will be better in terms of awards recognition.

Like what I said, both perceived frontrunners Louis and Parks and Recreation missed the nod this year, With that said, it’s an easy threepeat for Modern Family thinking there’s no solid alternate again for the show to be unseated. Lucky family, I must say.

Prediction: Modern Family
Dark Horse: Curb Your Enthusiasm


Complete Predictions:
1. Modern Family
2. Curb Your Enthusiasm
3. Girls
4. 30 Rock
5. The Big Bang Theory
6. Veep

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Zooey Deschanel, “New Girl” (Bad in Bed)
• Lena Dunham, “Girls” (She Did)
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie” (Disneyland Sucks)
• Tina Fey, “30 Rock” (The Tuxedo Begins)
• Julia Louis Dreyfus “Veep” (Tears)
• Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly” (The Dress)
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation” (Win, Lose, or Draw)

It girl Zooey Deschanel gets a nod for playing the title character in FOX’s hit comedy New Girl. In her episode, she tries to learn how to properly seduce the character of Justin Long so she asks the help of the guys, watches porn for practice, and buys kinky S&M outfit. While she was funny on her scenes, her episode also contains an equally hilarious storyline with Schmidt wanting to impress his pregnant boss when and pushed her in the pool. Deschanel can also be lost in the middle of all these performances, but I’d give her props for mixing physical comedy with her usual funny line deliveries.

Lena Dunham is the Emmys’ it girl this year garnering nods for writing, directing, acting, and producing the HBO comedy “Girls”. Sadly, her episode, which is the season finale, didn’t highlight her that much and did not introduce her character well to voters. I actually like her last few scenes from the train to the beach, but I don’t think it will stand out amidst the group of actual hilarious performances by the other nominees. If anything, she’ll get her consolation in the Writing category where she’s the actual frontrunner.

Up until now, Edie Falco still holds the record for the only actress who has wins for Best Actress both in the Drama and Comedy genres. her Comedy win is for the show where in she’s nominated again this year, Nurse Jackie. In her submitted episode, Falco goes to rehab which she dubbed as “Disneyland” and gets a visit from her daughter wherein she pretended that she was working there. This is a very good submission from Falco showing her great acting chops. Is Falco good? Definitely. Is it comedic enough? Nope. And that’s the reason on what will hinder her from the win.

After her first year submission blunder, Tina Fey has been a very good submitter when it comes to the Emmys, that’s why one cannot eliminate and dimish her chances when analyzing and viewing the tapes. The same can be said this year where in Liz Lemon and Jack Donaghy portrayed a Batman like stunt to save New York. Fey, complete with hilarious make up and playing various characters, is definitely on the top of her game with this episode and could have been an easy winner any other year. However, like what I mentioned earlier, while Fey is a consistent good submitter, she hasn’t received a second win in this category, and I don’t think this will change this year. There’s no denying though that this is her best submission since Reunion three years ago.

Julia Louis Dreyfus is one of the actresses that Emmy really loves. How she propelled a victory in 2006 is a big testament to that. Since then, she has been a perennial nominee and has received Emmys for both of her last two shows where in she’s a regular. This year, the same pattern happens when she’s nominated for her performance as Vice President Selena Meyer. In her submitted episode, she played the underdog with matching tears after receiving disappointment numbers from the people. Julia’s capability to shift from an underdog lady who misses her daughter to a foul mouthed official when she’s ranting to her staff will definitely stay with the voters. It also helps that the show is received enough even bagging a surprise Comedy Series nomination.

Melissa McCarthy‘s surprise win last year was mainly caused of Bridesmaids, but she has established so much this year that she can make her performance remain on the voters’ radar for the consecutive this year. I’m surprised how strong her tape is, as it dealt  with typical Emmy bait when she tries so hard to lose weight to fit in her wedding dress. I think this will work well with voters, and like the case of Jon Cryer, the disdain over her show and surprise Emmy win is what makes others dismiss her Emmy chances. I think that she’s in this race, and while I don’t think she’ll be the one to break the no wins here in this category, among the three past winners, she has what it takes to do so.

Amy Poehler should have an Emmy already in her mantle, and it’s a surprise that she still hasn’t received any after being nominated the last five years (combination of SNL and Parks and Recreation). This year, she submitted the season finale in which it was finally revealed what’s there for Leslie’s political ambitions. I see Poehler’s fate the same as Louis CK’s that if we based it on season long submission, she has a stronger chance, but she submitted an episode that works more on the heart rather than the laughs. Not that it’s a bad thing, and I think it’s a really good submission for Poehler; however, Greg Daniels characters haven’t had any luck in terms of any Emmy recognition, and I sadly don’t see any Emmy for Amy’s way. I’d be totally glad if she pulls it off though.

This is really difficult to predict especially the blunder re:tape of Zooey Deschanel, so every ranking really matters. For all we know, those who got the most number one votes also got the last place ones and someone who’s simply in the middle of the pack wins. For now, I’m going with Julia Louis Dreyfus who combines Emmy predigree, good tape, and right buzz for the win.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Dark Horse: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”

Complete Rankings:
1. Louis Dreyfus
2. Poehler
3. McCarthy
4. Deschanel
5. Dunham
6. Fey
7. Falco

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Hugh Bonneville, “Downton Abbey” (Episode 7: Christmas)
• Steve Buscemi, “Boardwalk Empire” (Two Boats and a Lifeguard)
• Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad” (Crawl Space)
• Michael C. Hall, “Dexter” (Nebraska)
• Jon Hamm “Mad Men” (The Other Woman)
• Damien Lewis, “Homeland” (Marine One)

It’s such a surprise that given the Downton love last year, Hugh Bonneville failed to make it in the Lead Actor Miniseries line up despite having six nominees. This year, he wasn’t the MVP of the series, but his episode is satisfying enough to justify his nomination. We get to see a lot of aspects with Bonneville’s character as a patriarch, a father, a son, a master, and Bonneville showed all of that with effectiveness. If anything though, his nominations is his reward. This is Steve Buscemi’s second shot for a nomination, and while the quality of the show increased from the first to the second, the buzz for the show decreased from the second to the first. His episode was okay; however, the problem is that it was too subtle and quiet for Buscemi to be the standout in this field. If he can’t win last year with the Globe and SAG wins, plus the buzz that Boardwalk had, I don’t see him winning this year. Bryan Cranston, so far, still has a perfect record for his performance as Walter White in the Emmys, and this is his year where in he’ll be tying with Dennis Franz if he wins a fourth one. And Cranston definitely nailed his episode submission with “Crawl Space.” The good thing with Cranston is that regardless if it’s a single tape system or a season long performance, he certainly delivers and is worthy of his Emmy win year in and year out. And with no real solid alternates, it’s easy for Cranston to get that fourth one. Michael C. Hall is on his fifth consecutive nod for the show, and he still hasn’t received any Emmy for this role. Hall’s best shot was in 2010, but he screwed up his submission resulting to a loss. This year, with Dexter falling out of the Best Drama Series category, and no major arc that led to a guest spot nom (Jimmy Smits, John Lithgow, Julia Stiles), the possibility of Hall finally winning an Emmy for this role is getting more impossible. I wouldn’t be shocked if he joins the list of other Emmyless performances with the way things are turning. Jon Hamm, like Hall, is on his fifth bid for a win now and still hasn’t received an Emmy. Don Draper is an iconic role already, but for some reason, the voters don’t feel the same way. During the previous years, the main con that people say why he keeps on losing is that his performance is too subtle as compared to others; however, he still lost last year with a very baity and over the top tape. Is it just a case of voters not really liking the role that much? While his tape this year is also good, he shares the episode with both Elisabeth Moss and Christina Hendricks, so he doesn’t get to own it from start to finish. The only one who stands a chance in beating Cranston is first time nominee Damian Lewis who also gives a very competitive performance in Homeland. He also submitted a winning tape via “Marine One”, which also happens to be one of the most lauded episodes of the show. Lewis showed range, emotion, screentime, and impact in his submission, and had it been a weaker year, it will definitely be the frontrunner. Don’t count his chances out though.

This category could have been stronger, as the snub for Kelsey Grammer turned this into a different ballgame. However, in the end, this is just between two men: Bryan Cranston and Damian Lewis. Cranston is the logical choice especially with the support that the show receives every year at the Emmys, and a fourth one is very much in reach. If there happens to be a Cranston fatigue, then I see Damian Lewis as a very deserving alternate to take home the trophy.

Prediction: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
Dark Horse: Damien Lewis, “Homeland

Complete Rankings:
1. Cranston
2. Lewis
3. Hamm
4. Bonneville
5. Hall
6. Buscemi

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” (Live from Studio 6H)
• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies” (Gods of Dangerous Financial Instruments)
• Louis CK, “Louie” (Duckling)
• Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men” (Frodo’s Headshots)
• Larry David “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Palestinian Chicken)
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” (The Werewolf Transformation)

Alec Baldwin is on his sixth nomination and had won twice already. While his episode Live From Studio 6H is a good one where he gets to do various characters that’s reminiscent of his winning episode, it’s not a surefire material that will give him his third Emmy. Also, the fact that 30 Rock has been some sort of a perennial nominee but not the Emmys choice for any win (they have been empty handed the last two years) gives him a disadvantage. Maybe they’ll wait for 30 Rock’s swansong last year for him and the rest of the show to be competitive again. Don Cheadle is the newbie nominee in this group, and I think it’s a result of how weak the options were this year. House of Lies isn’t necessarily a funny show, nor his submission, the pilot, has anything new to offer. I’d even put this role in the veins of David Duchovny in Californication and Thomas Jane in Hung which were both snubbed for an Emmy nomination. His exception for a nomination is a combination of a weak competition plus his star status, but not even his Emmyless state will help him all the way to the podium this year. With Leblanc coming back next year, plus a plethora of new shows, I’d be surprised if he even managed a consecutive nomination. Louis CK will surely be the winner if we based it on whole season performances. However, given his submission “Duckling”, I think it can be a hit or miss for the voters. On one hand, he gets to have 40 minutes of screentime in his episode, and this one targets more of the heart than the laughs with him doing stand up comedy for the troops. On the other hand, there isn’t any LOL moments that one expects to see given the double screentime his episode had. I think he has some other episodes that were more competitive than this one, but its not wise to dismiss his chances altogether. However, with all his other nominations (a record breaking SEVEN!), he can easily be a victim of vote splitting among voters where they will reward him with an Emmy. After six consecutive nods and one victory in the Supporting category, Jon Cryershifts to Lead status and easily gets a seventh nomination. His episode is classic Emmy bait as he gets to lose his mind and suffers a breakdown with everything happening around him. This has a combination of physical comedy, one liners, and I see him very competitive since no one submitted a sure fire winning submission. If anything, dislike towards his show is what hinders people from dismissing his chances because he is so in the race. The Emmys love his Alan Harper role so much (to the point they nominated it last year over Barney Stinson), and with a surprise SAG nom earlier this year, I can see him winning all the way. Maybe it’s because they don’t love actors portraying themselves but Larry David hasn’t still won an Emmy for his performance in the show despite him being continuously nominated. Two years ago, I predicted him with that Seinfeld episode which I took as a sign that Emmy voters will eat up, and yet he still lost to Jim Parsons. This year, he again submitted the show’s best episode, and if overdue status is to be considered, then he’ll definitely have a chance again. He is funny in his submitted episode, but it does not cater to everyone and might be divisive in general. Voters seem to love Jim Parsons‘s Sheldon Cooper so much to the point that he won against Steve Carell’s last year, and despite strong submissions from a should be three-peat of Alec Baldwin, a last for Tony Shalhoub, and a Seinfeld ep from Larry David two years ago. This year, Parsons submitted an episode that highlights the wackiness of Sheldon with him not wanting to get a haircut from others because his usual barber is in the hospital. It features him suffering a semi-breakdwon while playing the bongos during midnight and visiting the barber with scissors on his hands. It’s not as strong as his first win, but I see voters checking his name off here.

There is no standout performance per se, so we might be in for a surprise, but the past four years led us to wins in traditional sitcoms. I see the trend happening this year between Jon Cryer and Jim Parsons; however, I’m giving the edge to Parsons to mark a threepeat in this category.

Prediction: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
Dark Horse: Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men”

Complete Rankings:
1. Parsons
2. Cryer
3. David
4. CK
5. Baldwin
6. Cheadle

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Kathy Bates, “Harry’s Law” (Onward and Upward)
• Glenn Close, “Damages” (I’ve Done Way Too Much for This Girl)
• Claire Danes, “Homeland” (The Vest)
• Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey” (Episode 7: Christmas Episode)
• Julianna Margulies “The Good Wife” (Parenting Made Easy)
• Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men” (The Other Woman)

This year, still Emmyless Kathy Bates is nominated twice: one is for her performance as Charlie Harper’s reincarnation in the Guest Actress, Comedy category. The second is for her performance as the lawyer in this canceled David E. Kelley show. It’s such a shame that this show was finally canceled when it started to pick up already in terms of the quality of the episode. Her season finale episode (which turned out to the the series finale as well) deals with her knowing that her first husband was dead and no one wants to claim the body. It makes Harry re-visit her past and reminisce her relationship with the said husband. While the case of the week does not involved some Emmy bait monologues that David E. Kelly shows are made of, it ends with Bates dedicating a song to her husband. Had there been no solid frontrunner this year, I’d say she has a chance to win. But, for now, the most I can do is keep her in the upper tier. Glenn Close‘s Emmy winning role has already received two Emmys in 2008 and 2009. However, since then, all of Close’s succeeding nominations were paired up with bad submissions. It seems she Close’s team really knows how the game works and were submitting on purpose in order to spread the wealth, which at one hand, is glorious since they’re all for sharing. But on the other hand, it makes you question why they’re clearly sabotaging their chances. Close’s episode this year sounds baity with her visiting a shrink but it’s joined with a hunt for a baby sitter. After viewing Closes’s tape, you’ll feel as it just came and went leaving no impact to voters. Claire Danes, after winning two years ago in the Miniseries categories, is on the hunt again for her second Emmy, and it’s pretty obvious she’ll get it. Week after week, her performance in Homeland has been described as a tour de force, and I’m a testament of that. In her submitted episode, we get to see Danes’ character play bipolar and go batshit crazy. I can see some voters being polarized with this performance, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the buzz, critical support, and status that Danes had. After all, this is probably the only major category where in they can reward Danes, and it’s not as if they’re giving it a consolation win. I don’t see her faltering come Emmy time in terms of her odds, and she’s probably one of the few locks in this very competitive year. Moving on, it’s nice to note that voters are really paying attention to Downton Abbey when they nominated Michelle Dockery over last year’s Elizabeth McGovern who wasn’t given much to do this season. Dockery has been very consistent this season, and she would have benefited if ti was judged for a whole season’s body of work rather than an episode. Given that, she did the most she can by submitting the Christmas episode which was the most well received Downton episode of the season. She gets to have a lot of screentime here, but it wasn’t until the last scene that she leaves an impact. I don’t think it will be enough to trump other co-nominees’ submissions, but she’s probably somewhere in the middle of the pack. Current winner in this category Julianna Margulies, and she has a chance to reap a back to back win for her role as Alicia Florrick in The Good Wife. I like that she submitted an episode that has a history of getting awards here: a mother trying to balance her professional and personal duties which was put into test when she thought her daughter was missing. Margulies hits all the right notes here, and I won’t be shocked if she easily wins number two, though Danes is very hard to beat. This is a very good submission, and her only con is that she’s up against a co-nominee who is pretty much unstoppable at this point. Lastly, after being very competitive last year with The Suitcase, Elisabeth Moss is back this year with a less than stellar tape. However, this isa  good submission for her when she decided that she’s not given the worth that she deserves, so she jumps on a new company to work for which will give her the treatment she thinks she deserves. The episode ends up with an impactful scene with co-star Jon Hamm when she broke the news to him. This led to a scene where she packs her things and leaves the elevator smiling. This would have been a more competitive tape for Moss had she been given more screentime when the likes of her co-nominees such as Margulies, and to a certain extent, Danes, were the highlights of their episodes. I don’t think this is the year where we’ll see Moss nab the Emmy.

This category could have been more exciting if Danes wasn’t a sure bet as she is, but since we all know now that she’s taking this, I guess it will really be a shock if any other name will be called by the presenter on Emmy night.

Prediction: Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Dark Horse: Juliana Margulies, “The Good Wife

Complete Rankings:
1. Danes
2. Margulies
3. Bates
4. Dockery
5. Moss
6. Close

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory” (The Shiny Trinket Maneuver)
• Julie Bowen, “Modern Family” (Go Bullfrogs)
• Kathryn Joosten, “Desperate Housewives” (Finishing the Hat)
• Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family” (Tableau Vivant)
• Merritt Wever “Nurse Jackie” (One Armed Jacks)
• Kristin Wiig, “Saturday Night Live” (Host: Mick Jagger)

The third Big Bang Theory cast member who reaped an Emmy nom, Mayim Bialik is also the first female member of the cast to do so. I really think that she what it takes to win this; however, her episode submission is what lets her down. She predictably chose to go with the “tiara” episode, and while that is one of the funniest and most memorable moments of the season, the “scene” is too short enough to stand on its own and give her the Emmy. As a matter of fact, the scene is only two minutes short, and aside from one scene in the beginning, she’s missing in the whole episode. I call this is as a case of wrong submission ruining your Emmy chances. Current winner Julie Bowen is up for another chance to take a consecutive win in this category. After all, her submission involves her being drunk and fun, something that Emmy has rewarded with Emmys in the past. However, it’s not as slam dunk as her chances last year where she got two winning tapes that shows her range. In Sofia Vergara’s episode, she comes off as whiny and unlikable, and I don’t think that will gain her more votes in this category. While I’m fine with a repeat win for her, it seems she’s helping returning Vergara the favor of helping her win the Emmy this year. This one seems more of a tribute nom for Kathryn Joosten after her untimely death earlier this year; however, I don’t think it’s an easy win for her as some perceive. since we’ve seen time and again how nomination is the reward for those posthumous nominations. But then again, she’s Kathryn Joosten and this nominated role has already won twice before. Episode wise, she gets a winning trial scene where she spoke of friendship that she had at Wisteria Lane, and aside from that, she has her death scene in the end. It’s definitely the key to her win, and I think that’s where Emmy voters will go. Sofia Vergara has a history of being a bad submitter at the Emmys. During the first season, instead of submitting Coal Digger, she went with Not in My House. Last year, instead of going with Unplugged, she submitted Slow Down Your Neighbors. However, this year, it seems like an intervention was finally done and she submitted Tableau Vivant which highlighted her being jealous of Jay’s close friend. This, together with Julie Bowen’s submission, might finally be the year where she’s really in competition. Merritt Weveris a surprise nod this year considering she gets in while the likes of Jane Krakowski, Betty White, and Cloris Leahman were perceived as likelier nominees. However, her nomination should have come sooner than this year, as she’s giving Emmy worthy performances week in and week out in Nurse Jackie. In her submission, she’s looking for a new roommate, until Jackie decided to invite her to live in with her as she dances in the kitchen. I admit, there’s really not a laugh out loud scene in her submission, but every now and then, we see a winner that caters more on the emotion rather than the laughs (Cynthia Nixon, Jean Smart), and Wever fits the bill. Let’s not even pretend that the final graduation scene in the season finale will seal the deal for Kristin Wiig. After all, Emmys have proven time and again that they do not care if this is your last bid for the Emmy (Steve Carell, Jane Kaczmarek, Angela Lansbury anyone?). However, that’s just the icing on the cake for Wiig, as she delivers some of her funniest skits in the Mick Jagger episode. She was also present in all the skits in her episode, and probably has the longest screentime in terms of submitted tapes. That, plus her new A-list status after the Oscar nomination this February can propel Wiig to an Emmy win.

This one is really a difficult category to assess; the secret lies to what the type of performance voters are looking for. This year, I’m going with Academy’s favorite Kathryn Joosten though running on her heels is Kristen Wiig who can easily win this trophy as well.
Prediction: Kathryn Joosten, “Desperate Housewives
Dark Horse: Kristin Wiig, “Saturday Night Live

Complete Rankings:
1. Joosten
2. Wiig
3. Vergara
4. Bowen
5. Wever
6. Bialik

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey” (Episode 2)
• Brendan Coyle, “Downton Abbey” (Episode 7: Christmas Episode)
• Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones” (Blackwater)
• Giancarlo Esposito, “Breaking Bad” (Hermanos)
• Jared Harris, “Mad Men” (Commissions and Fees)
• Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad” (End Times)

I’m actually surprised how strong Jim Carter‘s tape is. He has tons of screentime, and he has a story running throughout the episode. He was showy as one can get for a supporting role, and having two tapes certainly increases his chance. However, the main problem I have with both Downton actors is that when you compare their episodes alongside the four nominated actors, it lacked the certain emotional gravitas that will make you rank them on top of your ballot. That’s what Carter needs to overcome in terms of his Emmy chances. If Carter is the showier Downton actor, co-star Brendan Coyle relies on poignant, quiet moments in his episode. One can argue that despite not having a huge amount of screentime, all hisc scenes with Joanne Froggatt in his episode really stands out on its own. However, not even an additional episode care of co-nominee Carter can increase his chances of passing all the other men to receive the Emmy next month. He’s a perfect example of getting nominated is the reward already. Current title holder Peter Dinklage submits Blackwater where in he has that inspirational speech in the middle of the action-packed episode. This is an improvement over his supposed previous submission; however is this enough for him to retain the title? I don’t think so. First, he submitted the most buzzed episode of the season again, and I don’t blame him for that after Baelor did give him his much deserved Emmy last year. But for some reason, Blackwater wasn’t received by the Emmys the same way Baelor did. Plus, this category is stronger this year than last year, so voters might spread the wealth. Giancarlo Esposito plays the best villain on TV right now, and it’s good that he gets nominated this season. He also benefits from the fact that the last few minutes of his submitted episode really leaves an impact to the watchers. Paul’s tape does not give him that much of a showcase, though it is safe to say that his presence was felt in the other episode as well. If fans of the show want to spread the wealth, they might opt to go with Esposito as their personal choice for the win this year. I also think he is the most buzzed nominee in this category which also helps his chances. Perennial nominee John Slattery skipped a nod this year, and the Mad Men actor who replaced him is none other than Jared Harris. His tape revolves around a life changing situation that ends with a very baity scene. He portrayed depression intricately and his submitted episode ends with a resolution. Harris has been a consistent player in Mad Men for years, and if Mad Men finally gets an acting win at the Emmys, I won’t be surprised if Harris is the one where they’ll reward with the trophy. 2010 winner Aaron Paul comes back after a season of ineligibility, and his chosen episode is very competitive to say the least. The difference between his and co-star Esposito’s tapes is that while Esposito’s tape leaves you with an impact after seeing it, Paul’s acting is the one responsible for the impact that his submission gives you. His moment in the middle of the episode with Cranston is every inch intense, riveting, and on spot great acting. However, if voters are not fan of in your face acting style, I can see them resorting to other nominees. However, between him and Dinklage, he’s the likelier to repeat a win.

It is noteworthy to see that there have been no repeat winners in this category for sixteen years now, and while that seems more of a coincidence than a trend, it is difficult to dismiss it as such. With that said, I’m leaning to an Esposito vs Harris among the newbies with Paul as a likely spoiler to siphon votes between the two. This is a nailbiter until the envelope will be opened come Emmy night.

Prediction: Jared Harris, “Mad Men”
Dark Horse: Giancarlo Esposito, “Breaking Bad”

Complete rankings:

1. Harris
2. Esposito
3. Paul
4. Dinklage
5. Carter
6. Coyle