Archive for the ‘emmys 2013 predictions’ Tag
2005: Doris Roberts, “Everybody Loves Raymond” [CORRECT]
2006: Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl” [WRONG]
2007: Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl” [CORRECT]
2008: Vanessa Williams, “Ugly Betty” [WRONG]
2009: Kristin Chenoweth, “Pushing Daisies” [CORRECT]
2010: Jane Lynch, “Glee” [CORRECT]
2011: Jane Lynch, “Glee” [WRONG]
2012: Kathryn Joosten “Desperate Housewives” [WRONG]
After supporting actor in a comedy series, let’s give the moment to the ladies now by tackling their counterparts: comedy’s supporting actresses. This year, we have a boatload of nominees here, as this category expanded to seven. And despite that, Arrested Development’s Jessica Walter still find herself with no nomination for the show’s fourth season. Poor Lucille.
Anyway, let’s begin with the cable ladies. Merritt Wever picked up a consecutive nod for her performance in Nurse Jackie. Truth be told, this late surge of love for her is something that I did not see coming at all. If anything, this would have made more sense during the show’s first season when the show was nominated for the top award. In her episode Teachable Moments, she wasn’t given much to do, and while she has the occasional snarks here and there, she’s relegated to a weak and unmemorable storyline.
Over at HBO, Anna Chlumsky is another of those who received a surprising nod. With the entire false buzz regarding her back and forth change of submission, it’s nice to see her stick with First Response. In this episode, she gets crazier than usual, as she refuses to let loose when Veep Meyer was in for an interview by Alison Janney’s character. However, this episode appeals more to those actual fans of the show.
Then we have a series of returning kids. Not only that, but they share the same first name as well. First, you have Jane Krakowski who submitted the hour long submission. While this gave her double screentime, it doesn’t put her to much advantage as compared to the Modern Family women who have, unintentionally, two submissions each. To be fair though, her song at the end of her long episode is one that will certainly bring votes her way.
After a year of snub, 2010 winner Jane Lynch is also back in contention. Sadly for her, she has been relegated to near guest-star status in terms of exposure in the show this season. In her episode Feuds though, we get to see her channel her inner Nicki Minaj with her Starship numbers with complete costume, wigs, and shiny lights to boot. Aside from that though, there’s nothing left for her submission to think that it runs for 42 minutes. Not her fault though.
Sofia Vergara has a reputation of a bad Emmy submitter. It all started when she submitted Not In My House in 2010, and it even solidified when she followed it with Slow Down Your Neighbors the following year. To her credit though, she made stronger choices since then such as her Tableau Vivant last year, and this year’s Yard Sale. In this episode, she gets to show some flashback about her beauty pageant years and perform puppetry at the end of her episode. Her only battle though is that the Emmys love her co-star better, so she can play second fiddle to her again.
Speaking of co-star, Julie Bowen is aiming for a three-peat this year. After submitting My Hero, it’s pretty clear that her team already mastered the art of finding what Emmy voters find in her character. In this episode, she has the heart and the laughs. And she is (unintentionally) helped once again by co-star Vergara’s tape. While I wouldn’t hate Julie Bowen just because she’s the one who keeps on winning here, she can be the Brad Garrett to Sofia Vergara’s Peter Boyle.
Lastly, there’s The Big Bang Theory’s Mayim Bialik. After being open last year that it was not her choice for a submission and that the networks opted for her, it seemed more in-synch with her this year, as she gets to pretend that she’s sick in her submission The Fish Guts Displacement. This episode is a showcase for her, though I don’t think it’s as strong as it perceived to be. She might benefit from having majority of her scenes interacting with Jim Parsons though, and she does a lot of physical comedy here.
As for who’s gonna win here, while I don’t think it’s out of the realm to see Sofia Vergara or Mayim Bialik pull a win here, it ultimately boils down to Julie Bowen for a three-peat or Jane Krakowski as the show’s farewell acting win ala Megan Mullally in 2006. For the meantime, I don’t see a slowdown of MF domination in the supporting categories, so I’ll be predicting Julie Bowen instead.
Prediction: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”
Runner-Up: Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock”
1. Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”
2. Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock”
3. Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family”
4.Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory”
5. Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
6. Merritt Wever, “Nurse Jackie”
7. Jane Lynch, “Glee”
To see other Emmy predictions, you can see them here.
Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
2005: Peter Boyle, “Everybody Loves Raymond” [WRONG]
2006: Jeremy Piven, “Entourage” [CORRECT]
2007: Jeremy Piven, “Entourage” [CORRECT]
2008: Jeremy Piven, “Entourage” [CORRECT]
2009: Neil Patrick Harris, “How I Met Your Mother” [WRONG]
2010: Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family” [CORRECT]
2011: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family” [CORRECT]
2012: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family” [WRONG]
After discussing the directing and writing categories, let’s go back to the acting ones. For now, we’ll be discussing the supporting categories in a comedy series. As for the actors, the final list of nominees ended up shocking the prognosticating world, as it gives the most extreme inclusions and exclusions. Some of the snubbed were current titleholder Eric Stonestreet for Modern Family, Max Greenfield for New Girl, and Will Arnett for Arrested Development. All three were predicted to be sure locks to receive nominations here, but it obviously did not materialize. As for those who were actually nominated…
While not all four Modern Family guys received nominations this year, three of them still managed to do so. 2011 winner Ty Burrell is back for another nod, and this year, he submitted Mistery Date which was the episode that involved a gay Matthew Broderick confusing a date with Burrell’s character. Burrell is one of the few MF stars who have multiple episodes to choose from, so this episode is a hit or miss for others. On one hand, this has the typical Phil funny stuff, but on the other, Broderick’s snub here might be telling of the Academy’s perception of the said episode.
Then we have Jesse Tyler Ferguson. Despite having no wins yet, it is actually surprising that Jesse Tyler Ferguson is one of the four actors from the cast (and the only one aside from Ty Burrell among males) that managed to receive nominations for all four previous seasons of the show. I think this indicates some passion on his character. While his episode The Wow Factor shows a competitive Mitchell; his attempts to beat young kids might not be as comedic as one would assume.
Ed O’Neill’s best tape was two years ago for the episode The Kiss during the show’ sophomore season. However, this year, he’s probably one who can benefit from the “multiple tape format” among co-stars. His original planned tape “The Wow Factor” was changed because it was co-star Ferguson’s submission already. This gives him an advantage to submit another tape of his liking which was the season opener Bringing Up Baby. The common factor among his chosen tapes was that they were all heart-tugging and it might work well for him in the end.
For his final season in SNL, Bill Hader receives a farewell nod from the Academy. This year, he submits the first episode with Seth MacFarlane. I personally think that this is a solid submission with his Clint Eastwood bit as arguably the most memorable among all the episodes in this category. As Kristen Wiig proved last year (and Steve Carell the year before), they mostly don’t care if you are leaving the show already and that they aren’t as sentimental as expected. The only downside of his submission is that there’s no sight of Stefon.
As per the Emmy rulebook, a person who has two continuing roles in a series can’t be campaigned for both, so they must choose one that will be for consideration. That’s the risk that paid off for Tony Hale this year by going with his current show Veep rather than sticking for Arrested Development. Obviously, it’s a good call knowing that AD very much underperformed while Veep overperformed. As for his submission Running, I think it gives him a lot do in terms of showcasing his comedic skills and is the perfect submission for him. In fact, I’d rank him as the contender with the best possibility to overcome the Modern Family guys.
Lastly, there’s Adam Driver. It’s one of the nominations I root for but certainly did not expect to happen. This is really a surprise because all the talks prior to the nominations have been for the supporting actresses, so Adam Driver being the first one outside of Lena Dunham to get an acting nod means something. In his tape It’s Back, he stands out because of the show’s tone among the other programs in this category. With that said, it can go back and forth with him, though I don’t see him winning this year.
With no Eric Stonestreet this year, this category is very up in the air. However, for the past ten years, series shows with three or more acting nominations has better odds of winning because it gives their actors more tapes and episodes as submissions. This has happened to The West Wing in 2002, Sex and the City in 2004, Desperate Housewives in 2005, Grey’s Anatomy in 2007, and Modern Family here for the past three years. I think the same will still happen this year, and the combo of their three submissions puts Ty Burrell in an advantage over his two co-stars. The only scenario I see where in someone NOT from Modern Family winning is if there is a fatigue on the show already. In that case, Tony Hale wins from a bunch of Veep and Arrested Development supporters.
Prediction: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
Runner-Up: Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family”
1. Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
2. Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family”
3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”
4. Tony Hale, “Arrested Development!”
5. Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”
6. Adam Driver, “Girls”
To check my complete Emmy predictions, you can see them here.
And, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
2005: Lost, “Pilot” [WRONG]
2006: Grey’s Anatomy, “It’s the End of the World/Life As We Know It” [WRONG]
2007: The Sopranos, “Made in America” [CORRECT]
2008: Mad Men, “Smoke Gets in Your Eyes” [CORRECT]
2009: Mad Men, “A Night to Remember” [WRONG]
2010: Mad Men, “Shut the Door, Have a Seat” [CORRECT]
2011: Mad Men, “The Suitcase” [WRONG]
2012: Downton Abbey, “Episode 7” [WRONG]
After discussing the writing and directing episodes in the comedy genre, we now move on the drama ones where the competition is really intense. To say that these categories are crazy is actually an understatement, as one can make a case for almost all the nominated episodes. Once again, let’s begin with the writing one, which is shocking as for the first time, Mad Men was snubbed in this category. I’d pay to be a fly on the wall of Matt Weiner’s office when he saw this nomination list.
Like with last year, Downton Abbey puts all their eggs in one basket by submitting only a single episode for consideration. And as predicted, it easily gets the nomination despite stiff competition from a lot of shows this year. With that said, if last year’s Christmas episode can’t figure out a win despite being the frontrunner last year, I don’t see how this one will figure out in this year’s race.
Then we have last year’s Homeland, whose win was a bit of a surprise considering the show’s pilot was penned as a frontrunner in the directing category and ended up losing there and winning here instead. For this year, they got nominated for one of the most talked about episodes of the past TV season. I’m fairly confident that they will eat up Q&A, so it’s not wise to dismiss them this year.
Speaking of those directing/writing mash-up, it is surprising that the most buzzed episode of the past year, Game of Thrones’ Rains of Castamere ended up nominated for its writing than its showy directing. While this can easily go the route of Homeland’s pilot last year and might contend for the win here, I don’t know if the writing is the stand out aspect of the episode.
And after a string of snubs year in and year out, not only does Breaking Bad finally get nominated, but they got two episodes in this category! However, it’s fairly shocking that it’s not for their more buzzed episodes this season (like Fifty-One). While getting nommed twice ensues confidence in the show, and that this category has no problems with vote splitting, there’s not a standout between the two of them that will propel them to a win. If needed to choose though, I’d go with Say My Name.
As for the winner, I still see a scenario of Game of Thrones winning as a reward for the episode altogether… or possibly a Breaking Bad win as a late consolation. But I guess I’ll stick with Homeland’s to win here for the second year.
Prediction: Homeland, “Q&A”
Runner-Up: Game of Thrones, “Rains of Castamere”
1. Homeland, “Q&A”
2. Game of Thrones, “Rains of Castamere”
3. Breaking Bad, “Say My Name”
4. Downton Abbey, “Episode 4”
5. Breaking Bad, “Dead Freight”
2005: Lost, “Pilot” [CORRECT]
2006: Six Feet Under, “Everyone’s Waiting” [WRONG]
2007: The Sopranos, “Kennedy and Heidi” [CORRECT]
2008: House, “House’s Head” [CORRECT]
2009: Mad Men, “The Jet Set” [WRONG]
2010: Lost, “The End” [WRONG]
2011: Boardwalk Empire “Pilot” [CORRECT]
2012: Homeland, “Pilot” [WRONG]
Now for the directing episode, let’s begin by continuing where we ended up in the upper part of the discussion. Homeland’s Q&A is nominated for both writing and directing this year. And while it is the writing frontrunner, the same can’t be said here. After all, it is rare for episodes to sweep writing and directing episodes in the same year. Also, the show lost last year despite being the undeniable frontrunner for its pilot episode. The only way I see it wins is if they really embrace Q&A.
Aside from Homeland, Downton Abbey is also nominated here. And I think this is an even longer shot than its writing chances. However, they keep nominating the show, so maybe all it needs is a passionate batch of supporters and can pull off an upset.
During the nomination predictions, the overwhelming frontrunner here is Looper director Rian Johnson’s directed Breaking Bad episode Fifty One. Surprisingly, it’s not the BB episode nominated, and Gliding Over All made it instead. I actually think this has a chance here, and isn’t it awesome for a female director to be rewarded? With that said, the past two years has an overwhelming female directors nodded too and that didn’t work in their favor.
Last year’s surprise winner was Tim van Patten for his work in Boardwalk Empire. Now he’s back for Margate Sand, but one factor that won’t work for him this time is the overdue narrative that probably pushed him last year. Last year was his first directing Emmy win despite dozens of nominations already, and the ATAS probably think it’s time to give him one. While he can still pull a consecutive win, I don’t think it’ll be enough.
Lastly, there’s David Fincher for the pilot episode of House of Cards. When movie star directors are nominated for Emmys, they usually go on and win instantly. However, there are still instances of them losing out such as Quentin Tarantino’s buzzed episode for CSI in 2005, so it’s not as easy victory for Fincher.
With all that said, I think Fincher will still barely have the edge to pull off that win. He might not be Martin Scorsese levels of lock in 2011, but he’s a pretty respected director that is on his first Emmy nomination so I’m still confident with him winning in the end.
Prediction: House of Cards, “Episode 1”
Runner-Up: Breaking Bad, “Gliding Over All”
1. House of Cards, “Episode 1”
2. Breaking Bad, “Gliding Over All”
3. Homeland, “Q&A”
4. Boardwalk Empire, “Margate Sands”
5. Downton Abbey, “Episode 4”
Next part of the series will now tackle the supporting categories!
To check my complete Emmy predictions, you can see them here.
You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
2005: Desperate Housewives, “Pilot” [WRONG]
2006: Arrested Development, “Development Arrested” [WRONG]
2007: The Office, “Gay Witch Hunt” [CORRECT]
2008: 30 Rock, “Cooter” [CORRECT]
2009: 30 Rock, “Reunion” [CORRECT]
2010: Modern Family, “Pilot” [CORRECT]
2011: Modern Family, “Caught in the Act” [CORRECT]
2012: Girls, “Pilot” [WRONG]
After the guest acting categories, let’s move on to the two vital categories outside of acting: writing and directing. For this year, only one episode managed to pick up both writing and directing nominations, which probably speaks on how much the writers and directors branch avoid lazy voting among episodes. Let’s first discuss the writing one.
30 Rock has two nominations in this category, apiece for their hour long finale episode. While both Hogcock! And Last Lunch complement each other effectively, one stands out far better when viewed as a single episode than the other. And I think that’s were last Lunch has its advantage.
After some misses here, The Office gets a farewell nod for its final episode. The writers have shown lots of love for the show with a win in 2007 and even a last nod for 2011’s Goodbye Michael. The finale is the longest episode from this bunch and that can work in its favor; however, with two finale episodes here (technically, there are three), sentimentality might not work on its side.
For some reason, the writers branch really like Episodes as it always find its way in the Writing branch. So far, it’s 2/2 when it comes to nominations, but like the last time, the nomination is the show’s reward.
Lastly, there’s last year’s winner Louis CK. He submitted a far much stronger episode this year as compared to his winning one, so that gives him better odds. Louie is one of only two comedy shows nominated this year for writing and directing. It’s definitely competitive for the win.
I can see it going on two separate ways: 30 Rock winning for their finale episode or Louie winning for the second year in a row. But since Louis CK has many other categories to contend it, while Tina Fey does have a far stiffer competition in Lead Actress, I’d go with Tina getting her final Emmy for 30 Rock in this category instead.
Prediction: 30 Rock, “Last Lunch”
Runner-Up: Louie, “Daddy’s Girlfriend Part 1”
1. 30 Rock, “Last Lunch”
2. Louie, “Daddy’s Girlfriend Part 1”
3. The Office, “Finale”
4. 30 Rock, “Hogcock!”
5. Episodes, “Episode 209”
2005: Desperate Housewives, “Pilot” [CORRECT]
2006: My Name is Earl, “Pilot” [CORRECT]
2007: Ugly Betty, “Pilot” [CORRECT]
2008: Pushing Daisies, “Pie-lette” [CORRECT]
2009: 30 Rock, “Reunion” [WRONG]
2010: Glee, “Pilot” [CORRECT]
2011: Modern Family, “Halloween” [CORRECT]
2012: Curb Your Enthusiasm, “Palestinian Chicken” [WRONG]
Now as for the directing category, one of their favorites in this category is to reward shows for their pilot episodes. But since there’s no pilot in contention this year, let’s see how the category is stacked up. First, you have the finale of 30 Rock. While the two episodes are competing against each other in the writing category, they are combined here in the directing one. Beth McCarthy Miller is still emptyhanded here for all of her previous directed episodes, and this is her last shot to win something for the show.
At the beginning, it’s surprising how Glee suddenly ends up with a directing nod after almost two seasons of snubs from the Emmys altogether. With that said, one needs to know that the reason why Diva is nominated is that its director, Paris Barclay, is DGA’s newly anointed president. If anything, this is just a token for their branch’s new president.
For the fourth year now, a Modern Family episode is nominated in this category. For this year, Arrested is their only nominated episode here which involves Haley Dunphy being arrested at her college for her underage drinking. After winning two consecutive years now, they can easily add another to continue their streak.
Lena Dunham might have been snubbed for her writing duties this season, but her directing duties were surely noticed. For this year, her nominated episode is also one of the more critically lauded ones. In On All Fours, we see a pressured Hannah being visited by her OCD tendencies again. If people are eager to reward her this year, this can be one of the stronger venues to do so.
Lastly, we have 9x nominee Louis CK. It is wise of his team to submit only one episode for directors in contention, and he chose New Year’s Eve which involved Louie’s struggles throughout the holidays. This is their only way to reward him as a director for the show, and that is a double edged sword for him. If voters like the show enough, they’d vote for him regardless. But if not, they might throw their vote elsewhere.
I can see this going into three different scenarios: First, 30 Rock getting an overdue win in this category (after all, they’re still 0 in terms of directing wins). Second, a Louie win to join his writing one last year. But in the end, I’m leaning with the idea that they still will reward Modern Family for the third year. After all, Gail Mancuso still hasn’t won as a director and will likely follow Michael Spiller and Steven Levitan this year.
Prediction: Modern Family, “Arrested”
Runner-Up: Louie, “New Year’s Eve”
1. Modern Family, “Arrested”
2. Louie, “New Year’s Eve”
3. 30 Rock, “Hogcock!/Last Lunch”
4. Girls, “On All Fours”
5. Glee, “Diva”
To check my complete Emmy predictions, you can see them here.
And, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
2005: Lupe Ontiveros, “Desperate Housewives” [WRONG]
2006: Blythe Danner, “Will & Grace” [WRONG]
2007: Judith Light, “Ugly Betty” [WRONG]
2008: Carrie Fisher, “30 Rock” [WRONG]
2009: Tina Fey, “Saturday Night Live” [CORRECT]
2010: Betty White, “Saturday Night Live” [CORRECT]
2011: Gwyneth Paltrow, “Glee” [CORRECT]
2012: Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live” [WRONG]
And to finally complete the four guest acting categories, let’s go on and tackle the Guest Actress in a Comedy Series. Historically, I’ve done really bad in this category unless there’s a frontrunner, and even then, I still sometimes stumble (coughMelissaMcCarthycough). With that said, let’s first give some spots to snubbed performances such as those of Liza Minelli in Arrested Development (what does she have to do to get that late but deserved nod!??), and Parker Posey in Louie. Anyway, let’s begin!
Speaking of Louie, Melissa Leo picks up her second Emmy nod in three years; this time, it’s her comedic turn for Louis CK’s show. In her episode Telling Jokes/Set Up, the aggressive Laurie makes some moves on Louie after being set up by a common friend. Melissa Leo really has some LOL moments in her episodes, and it doesn’t even need much introduction to see the fun in her character. I think she has the most memorable scene among all the tapes in this category. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s an Oscar winner.
Then you have the other Melissa…Melissa McCarthy that is. After her surprising loss for Saturday Night Live last year, her second hosting stint once again gained her a consecutive nod in this category. Truth be told, this wasn’t even comparable to the great pilot hosting stint she had last year, but if Emmys want to play nice and catch up with her, then she’s definitely in the running.
Speaking of SNL, previous perennial Supporting Actress nominee Kristen Wiig hosts the show for the first time after ending her stint as a mainstay on the show. She has the longest episode here, as she appears in all the gags throughout the show. It’s also a different dynamic every time a previous mainstay comes back and host the show. However, as proven many times in the past, Emmys are the least sentimental awards group, and they probably won’t even care for this narrative at all.
Another past SNL mainstay is nominated here, though not necessarily for hosting the show. Molly Shanon picks up a surprise Emmy nod for a somewhat resurgence of love for HBO’s canceled series Enlightened. In her episode The Ghost is Seen, she played the person whom Amy used in order to get their needed files. Shannon comes off as very sympathetic by the end of the episode, and while I won’t be surprised if she somehow wins it, I feel that her odds are relatively small as compared to the other women here.
2007 champ here Elaine Stritch comes back for her last shot for 30 Rock after missing last year here. As a perennial nominee, it’s surprising how she was left off the list last year, but with one win and multiple nods under her belt, it’s one of the easier nods to predict this year. As for her submission My Whole Life is Thunder, let’s just say it puts Coleen Donaghy’s character back to full circle, and this one tugs your heart the most. However, same as Wiig’s case, Emmys are very far from sentimental though let’s see if they give her a free pass for it.
To close this one, we have another perennial nominee: Glee‘s Dot Marie Jones. Jones is on her third consecutive nod this year, and while it amazes me how she still keeps getting nominated, I’m more surprised how voters favor her much. It is wise of her to submit the show’s most buzzed episode Shooting Star, though I don’t think she has any Emmy worthy submission this year, so at least she gave her best shot in it.
There’s a lot of directions this category can actually end up going with. I guess I have to go with Elaine Stritch then. The Emmys usually give farewell wins to shows they really love (Frasier, Will & Grace, Everybody Loves Raymond) and they do it by throwing out acting wins. This can be an easy farewell to both Stritch and 30 Rock the show. If not her, they maybe either one of the Melissas grab the momentum. There are instances when Emmys play catch up so McCarthy might benefit from this, then the movie star in a TV guest stint might be too big to ignore for them and works for Leo. Though with that last part, I’m still adamant with a Louie actor winning for the show and it’s not someone names Louis CK. Stritch then, I guess.
Prediction: Elaine Stritch, “30 Rock”
Runner-Up: Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”
1. Elaine Stritch, “30 Rock”
2. Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”
3. Melissa Leo, “Louie”
4. Kristen Wiig, “Saturday Night Live”
5. Molly Shannon, “Enlightened”
6. Dot Marie Jones, “Glee”
To check out other Emmy predictions, you can see them here.
Also, you might want to follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
2005: Martin Landau, “Without a Trace” [WRONG]
2006: Christian Clemenson, “Boston Legal” [CORRECT]
2007: David Morse, “House” [WRONG]
2008: Glynn Turmann, “In Treatment” [CORRECT]
2009: Michael J. Fox, “Rescue Me” [CORRECT]
2010: John Lithgow, “Dexter [CORRECT]
2011: Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife” [WRONG]
2012: Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife” [WRONG]
It’s now time to complete the male and drama guest acting nods, so it’s pretty obvious that what I’ll discuss next is Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series. For this year, notable snubs include two time previous nominee Dylan Baker in his turn for The Good Wife, multiple Emmy winner Ray Romano for Parenthood, and another year for Matthew Perry missing also for The Good Wife. Let’s begin!
Speaking of The Good Wife, despite many snubs, two actors from the show still made it in for this year. First, there’s three time nominee Michael J. Fox. Among his past three submissions, I think this one had him in his longest exposure. In his episode submission Boom De Yah Da, not only will we see a glimpse of his wife, but it shows his character help someone block the case handled by arch nemesis Alicia Florrick. Granted it’s not the nicest deed we’ve seen from Louis, but that did not prevent them from nominating him before.
As for the other Good Wife actor, Nathan Lane gets his second guest acting nomination this year for his role as Clarke Hayden. He submits the season opener I Fought the Law which was the first time we’ve seen him on the show. However, this episode did not give him anything to do aside from roaming and appearing in the crowd, and I don’t think it will do him any favors. He appears in co-star Michael J. Fox’s tape, but they have no scene together, so it won’t have any bearing on their chances.
Now Mad Men also gets two of its actors in this category. After missing last year, Robert Morse is back for another shot at the win. Just when you thought they finally dropped him for good, he comes back roaring. Sadly for him, he still wasn’t given much to do, and his tape For Immediate Release proved it. He was on it for five minutes tops, and that’s mostly comprised of just reacting to his co-stars or sitting in a chair.
Aside from Morse, Harry Hamlin also picked up a nod for Mad Men. As opposed to Morse, Hamlin actually gets a good tape with A Tale of Two Cities, we see Jim Cutler work on the renaming of the agency. He gets confrontational scenes, some shoutings, and a decent amount of screentime in his episode.
Then we have Homeland‘s first nod in this category with Rupert Friend nominated. Like everyone else, it’s wise of him to submit Q&A as his episode. Not only is this the show’s most acclaimed episode this season, he also has a hefty amount of moments in it. If the voters love the show (and episode) so much, he can contend for the win. But sometimes, Emmys has a thign against good looking actors, and Friend can easily be a victim of that.
Lastly, there’s Dan Bucatinsky as the first male nominee from Scandal. While one can argue that Scandal is the weakest show here, as it is bordering on soap opera, what’s fantastic about it is he will probably have the most memorable and over the top scene with his confrontation with his partner. He also gets a court scene that involves him testifying to something. With previous winners here winning from In Treatment to Harry’s Law, it doesn’t need for a nominee to be in a Drama Series nod to get recognized here.
There really is no serious frontrunner in this category. While I predicted Michael J. Fox the past two years, I don’t think I’ll go with him for the third time (now watch him win this year!). Harry Hamlin is an 80s TV star who has notable credits under his name and one can see him as overdue for an Emmy win. With that said, I’ll go with Rupert Friend to get carried away with the Homeland love, as Q&A is one of the defining episodes of the past Emmy season. If not him, then watch out for Dan Bucatinsky to win here for a scene stealing episode among his contemporaries.
Prediction: Rupert Friend, “Homeland”
Runner-Up: Dan Bucatinsky, “Scandal”
1. Rupert Friend, “Homeland”
2. Dan Bucatinsky, “Scandal”
3. Harry Hamlin, “Mad Men”
4. Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife”
5. Nathan Lane, “The Good Wife”
6. Robert Morse, “Mad Men”
To check out other Emmy predictions, simply click here.
You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
2005: Alec Baldwin, “Will and Grace” [WRONG]
2006: Martin Sheen, “Two and a Half Men” [WRONG]
2007: Stanley Tucci, “Monk” [CORRECT]
2008: Will Arnett, “30 Rock” [WRONG]
2009: Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live” [CORRECT]
2010: Neil Patrick Harris, “Glee” [CORRECT]
2011: Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live” [CORRECT]
2012: Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live” [CORRECT]
For the last few years, the comedy guest acting categories have been home of mostly Saturday Night Live hosts with them getting nominated yearly and having three of the last four winners from their show. Is SNL the Law and Order: SVU in this category? Hmm. For this year, notable misses were Patrick Wilson of Girls, perennial nominee Will Arnett for 30 Rock, and former SNL (shocker!) cast member Martin Short’s hosting stint.
Justin Timberlake comes back for a third bid in this category, for his latest SNL appearance. After his two previous wins here, it is unwise to dismiss his chances here. After all, this has the same format of his last two winning stints. He also had the benefit of being the musical performer in his episode which means he has the longest screentime out of everybody (even doubling some of the other nominees in this category).
As for the other SNL nominee here, Louis C.K. has the second most screentime here. Between his eight other nominations, it’s clear that he is very well loved by the Academy and that can translate to any win. This can be one of his easier wins if the voters go all Louis CK this year. Besides, he has the second longest exposure among the nominees here.
For his stint as Pepper, Nathan Lane receives another nomination for Modern Family. He wasn’t given much to do in his submitted episode (A Slight in the Opera) , as all he has is one memorable slap from the episode’s B storyline. One might consider this as confidence in his performance for him to get nominated despite nothing to do, but maybe I’m just over thinking and this is the result of lazy voting.
Despite being a legendary presence in American television, it is really surprising that Bob Newhart still hasn’t won an Emmy yet. This year, he adds another nomination under his résumé for his performance as Professor Proton in The Big Bang Theory’s The Proton Resurgence episode. While this one is more of a buzzed casting, Newhart was fantastic in his short moments and has good chemistry with the whole cast.
Then you have Nurse Jackie’s Bobby Cannavale coming back for a consecutive nod. I remember liking his episode last year better than this one (Walk of Shame), as this one packs an all emotional dramatic punch and no comedic hints at all. In here, he had his exit interview in All Saints. He seems to be one of the actors that Emmys love to reward with nomination.
And for the sixth year in a row, a Will is nominated for 30 Rock. Surprisingly though, it is not Will Arnett who gets the farewell nomination for the show. For the first time, Will Forte is the one who was nommed for the show. This is quite a headscratching nomination as his screentime in his episode “My Whole Life is Thunder” is two minutes tops. He is in the smallest storyline of the season and this one doesn’t require him to do anything. Part of me thinks if his good word for his film (the Cannes entry Nebraska) during the voting period factored in here.
As for the winner, while this is leaning towards another Saturday Night Live win, I’m inclined to go with Emmyless veteran Bob Newhart for his turn as Professor Proton. However, this is not a slam dunk tape and maybe they’d go for either Louis CK or Justin Timberlake. With that said, the desire for Newhart to win an Emmy is on the roof now, and this is their chance to reward him.
Prediction: Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory”
Runner-Up: Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live”
1. Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory”
2. Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live”
3. Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live”
4. Nathan Lane, “Modern Family”
5. Bobby Cannavale, “Nurse Jackie”
6. Will Forte, “30 Rock”
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