Archive for the ‘homeland’ Tag

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama series

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Lost [CORRECT]
2006: 
Grey’s Anatomy” [WRONG] 
2007: 
The Sopranos” [CORRECT]
2008: 
Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2009: 
Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2010: 
Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2011: 
Mad Men” [CORRECT]
2012: 
Downton Abbey” [WRONG] 

And we’ve finally come to the end of this month long series of Emmy predictions. This is the last part of the 23+ categories that I’ve been writing for the past month or so. It is indeed wise to save the best for last with the top Emmy category for achievement in drama. There have been no serious major snub in this category this year, though HBO’s Boardwalk Empire finally bid out of this race and Netflix’s House of Cards took its place.

Last year, I predicted Downton Abbey for the win just because I thought it will be the gamechanger since it literally swept a lot of nominations. After all, it’s coming from a strong second season and was seen as the cool “it” show of last season. None of those factors work here anymore, so if they can’t win with a much buzzed season last year, I doubt it will pull off a late win for this one.

Mad Men has won four consecutive back to back series from 2008-2011 and it had its first major shutout last year. I think the trend will continue this year, though they’ll have the extra year to still pull off a fifth series win and a possible acting victory with the news of their last season being divided into two parts.

Netflix made history with its first series nod via House of Cards. However, unlike 2008 when cable (that is not named HBO) managed to win the top award, I don’t the situation is ripe yet for a Netflix victory. After all, in 2008, it wasn’t only Mad Men who benefits from a cable advantage. There were also Damages, Breaking Bad, and Dexter benefiting from the said narrative, so they are well represented. This year, its nomination is the reward for the huge gamble.

Game of Thrones just finished their best season yet in terms of critics and audience with the Red Wedding episode being the season’s highlight. It would have put them near the frontrunner status, but I don’t think it is enough to overcome the genre bias of the voters. As a consolation though, it is the closest they’ve ever been to in terms of chances in their three year stay in this category.

In the end, it’s still a battle between current champ Homeland defending its position, and current it show Breaking Bad with their second to the last season. On one hand, Homeland despite receiving mixed reception for their second season can still not be compared to the sophomore slump of other shows. Besides, the key here is submission, and they submitted really well. The show had an increase in nominations and the Emmys usually tend to stick longer to a show as compared to the critics who shift picks from season to season.

On the other, Breaking Bad benefits from the fact that the voting season happened during the release of their finale season. So odds are, the buzz is higher than ever. The nominations also increased this year with them finally conquering the writing categories (and with two nominations at that). It is clearly a show that is too big to ignore that it’s already a shoo-in for next year’s Drama Series award even if all the other contenders aren’t starting their seasons yet.

In the end, I think that will put Homeland at a slight advantage over Breaking Bad. Sure, the buzz right now is deafening, but I don’t think they’ll reward it for the first part of a divided season. Even The Sopranos waited for the last season when it got its second win. With the show ultimately being a lock for next year’s category, they’d more likely wait for it by then to reward it. In that manner, they can give another win to Homeland which is clearly another show that they love.

Prediction: Homeland
Runner-Up: Breaking Bad

Full Rankings:
1. “Homeland
2. “Breaking Bad
3. “Game of Thrones
4. “Downton Abbey”
5. “Mad Men
6. “House of Cards

You can see my other Emmy predictions here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

actor drama

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Ian McShanw, “Deadwood” [WRONG]
2006: 
Kiefer Sutherland, “24” [CORRECT]
2007: 
James Gandolfini “The Sopranos” [WRONG]
2008: 
James Spader, “Boston Legal” [WRONG]
2009: 
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad” [CORRECT]
2010: 
Hugh Laurie, “House” [WRONG]
2011: 
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men” [WRONG]
2012: 
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad” [WRONG]

Now we’re off to one of the most highly contested categories at this year’s Emmy awards: Drama Actor in a Lead Series. Almost everyone here has a narrative going in for them, and this is already a busy category on its own despite Steve Buscemi missing for Boardwalk Empire and perennial nominee Michael C. Hall’s supposed sixth consecutive nod. Anyway, off to the nominees…

After picking up Globe and SAG nods earlier this year, Jeff Daniels received his first Emmy nomination for The Newsroom. And despite submitting the show’s pilot (which is probably his best shot, so kudos to him for doing so), it seemed that he’s one of those filler nods that deserves a nomination but you can rule out for the win. If anything, this is the best scenario that works for the concept of “the nomination is the reward.”

Surprisingly making it again for the second time, despite everyone (including yours truly) undermining his chances is Downton Abbey‘s Hugh Bonneville.  Bonneville went with Episode 5 of the show’s third seasons, which is a breath of fresh air from his co-stars who went with the season opener. But then again, he’s such a non-factor in this race that it won’t even matter.

Then  you have multiple nominee Jon Hamm. Despite multiple nods under his name, he still wasn’t able to snatch a golden Emmy of his own whether for his work here in Mad Men or his guesting stint on 30 Rock. For this year, he submitted the season ender In Care Of. Now with the announcement of Mad Men‘s final season being divided into two parts, this gives Hamm (and everyone else in the cast) two more shots to get nominated and give the show its first acting win. I just don’t see it happening this year.

Bryan Cranston aims to win his fourth Emmy for his role as Walter White for Breaking Bad. While it’s not wise to count him out of the conversation, winning the fourth Emmy is a harder feat than what it looks like. In this category’s history, only one performance managed to scoop up four Emmys for it. A lot of them came close such as James Gandolfini in The Sopranos, and James Spader in Boston Legal only to be defeated in their last time. Now I have no doubt that Bryan Cranston can easily tie it… but he’ll have to wait for next year I guess.

That leaves us with current winner Damian Lewis. His season might be uneven in general, but remember that when it comes to the Emmys, you only need one surefire episode to batch you that Emmy gold. And he clearly has one with Q&A.  This is a very competitive episode that is tailor made to win an Emmy. And I have no doubt that this will not be put into waste, as Lewis is one of the two frontrunners this season.

Lastly, there’s two time Oscar winner Kevin Spacey. His first foray into television series is put into good fruition, as he instantly gets nominated for an Emmy for it. Spacey is no stranger with the Emmys since he has been nominated for 2008’s TV movie Recount, but this is his first shot to end up with one. Emmy voters also tend to be starstrucked with movie stars and Oscar winners, so that works well in his advantage. For this year, his only semi downside is submitting Episode 1 instead of his baitier tapes into the season. As Julianna Margulies proved in 2010, buzz can only take you so far and a winning tape can beat you in an instant.

All in all, I see this as a three way race among Bryan Cranston, Damian Lewis, and Kevin Spacey. I’m more dismissive of Cranston’s chances since it is more fitting to see him win is record tying one on the last season of the show next eligibility year. That leaves me choosing between Oscar winner Spacey and current winner Damian Lewis. This is where Spacey is at a disadvantage, since his tape pales in comparison. With that said, I’m going with Damian Lewis for a consecutive win too.

Prediction: Damian Lewis, “Homeland
Runner-Up: Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards

Full Rankings:
1. Damian Lewis, “Homeland
2. Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards
3. Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad
4. Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
5. Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”
6. Hugh Bonneville, “Downton Abbey

You can see my other Emmy predictions in other categories here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

actress drama

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Glenn Close, “The Shield[WRONG]
2006:
Geena Davis, “Commander in Chief[WRONG]
2007:
Minnie Driver “The Riches[WRONG]
2008:
Glenn Close, “Damages[CORRECT]
2009:
Glenn Close, “Damages[CORRECT]
2010:
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife[WRONG]
2011:
Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife” [CORRECT]
2012:
Claire Danes, “Homeland[CORRECT]

After the very funny ladies of comedy, we move on to the dramatic actresses of the past TV season. Aside from comedy supporting actress, this is the other category that has a tie in the final nominations resulting to seven nominated performances. Despite that, it is still shocking that supposed perennial nominee and 2011 winner Julianna Margulies missed for the Good Wife when she could have trumped three to four performances here. Oh well, off to the actual nominees.

This bunch of women can be divided into two parts: the supporting borderline competing in Lead women and the actual lead females of their respective shows. Let’s start with the former. After receiving her first nod last year, Michelle Dockery easily sneaks in a consecutive nod for the show. Truth be told, it’s one of the expected noms since she managed to get in at the Globes and SAG earlier this year as well.  For her submission, she went with the season opener (which co-stars Maggie Smith and Jim Carter also went with). I don’t think much of her chances since it’s an easy filler nod this year.

Two time nominee this year Elisabeth Moss receives her fifth consecutive nomination for the show. It is really interesting to note that for the past three years, both she and co-star Jon Hamm have been submitting the same episode for consideration. This year, they both opted for the season finale In Care Of. While this is an okay submission for her, Moss wasn’t given much to do this season that merits her possible Emmy. If anything, she better puts all her odds for Top of the Lake since she’s one of the frontrunners there.

We also have Robin Wright as one of the newbie nominees this year for her work in House of Cards.  I was always skeptical of Wright’s chances as a nominee, since it’s pretty clear that she has better chances if she competes in Supporting. But it seems as if this move worked for her better since she also got nominated here. She went with Episode 10 of the season which is one of her stronger episodes, but once again, I’ll be going back to the notion that this would have been a more competitive tape in supporting.

Now let’s go to the leads of their shows. Oscar nominee Vera Farmiga gives A&E a reward for a fruitful campaign as she gets in for Bates Motel. While this genre isn’t something that is usually noticed by the ATAS, I think the movie star pedigree of the actress paved the way for this nomination. I also like that she went with the pilot episode of the show because it’s the best way to introduce her character, and while others might turned off with what happens to her character in the middle of the episode, it shows Farmiga’s range in it.

Speaking of submitting the pilot, Connie Britton surprisingly receives her fourth nomination in a row for a record of three different shows. This time, her role as country diva Reina James in Nashville gives her the nomination. I’m really awed with how Britton managed to snatch this nod, but I’ve figured that she probably has been a semi-favorite now by ATAS in terms of getting nominations. Still, I think the soapy nature of her show will limit votes to come her way.

Lastly in this group, we have current TV it girl Kerry Washington for her fierce performance in ABC’s Scandal. Washington has always been one of my sure to predict nominees since it’s the first time in a long span of time that a black actress was nominated in this category. That narrative alone will apply for her already. That said, she wisely submitted their season’s most buzzed episode Happy Birthday Mr. President. Like Britton, I think the soapy nature of her show plus the fact that it’s really not a tour de force acting showcase will get her close to the prize but not ultimately going home with it.

And as for the single rose who carries her show but with a shared co-star, current title winner Claire Danes aims to be the next back to back winner here since Glenn Close in 2008 and 2009 for her layered role as Carrie Mathison in Homeland. There’s nothing much left to be said about Danes since this is probably the best role in television right now, and she has the receipts to back it up. This is also the type of role that gets multiple awards, and with her sweeps at televised awards since last year, it will be an easy feat for her. She submitted Q&A, which some might argue as more of Damian Lewis’ episode, but their tag team works best when they act against each other, and this set up benefits them greatly.

Now as for who’ll win, I’d say it’s an easy number two for Miss Danes. The Emmys won’t easily dispatch Homeland and in case they might give away some of their wins last year to other shows this year, this is probably their safest category. Coming off to a distant second is Vera Farmiga who I can see pulling off a Bryan Cranston type of win back in 2008: a small trial season show for a known veteran in a very baity role. But in the end, yes, it’s still Claire’s to lose.

Prediction: Claire Danes, “Homeland
Runner-Up: Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel

Full Rankings:
1. Claire Danes, “Homeland
2. Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel
3. Kerry Washington, “Scandal
4. Connie Britton, “Nashville”
5. Robin Wright, “House of Cards
6. Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men
7. Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series   3 comments

supp actor drama

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Terry O’Quinn, “Lost[WRONG]
2006:
Alan Alda, “The West Wing[CORRECT]
2007:
Michael Imperioli, “The Sopranos[WRONG]
2008:
Zeljko Ivanek, “Damages[CORRECT]
2009:
Christian Clemenson, “Boston Legal[WRONG]
2010:
Andre Braugher, “Men of a Certain Age[WRONG]
2011:
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones[CORRECT]
2012:
Jared Harris, “Mad Men” [WRONG]

Now off to the supporting female counterparts, let’s shift the moment on to the men’s side. Last year, Aaron Paul made history by being the first supporting actor who won a second Emmy in this category in fourteen years. This year, he can continue to beat his own record by winning a third one. Let’s see his possible competition.

Jim Carter surprisingly received another nomination for his work in Downton Abbey. Though the love for his show has somewhat cooled down, it still has fire enough in it to pull off some major wins. With that said, it is good on his part to submit he first episode of the third season which runs for almost two episodes already. But with that said, I guess the best part of his nomination this year is that he and his wife Imelda Staunton (nominated for Supporting Actress in a Movie or Miniseries) are both nominated.

2011 winner in this category Peter Dinklage received his third straight nomination for Game of Thrones. It is luck for his part that he won on the season with no Breaking Bad, as he competed in a weaker competition that year. Otherwise, I think he might have joined the ranks of other consistent but no Emmy win nominated guys such as Mad Men’s John Slattery. While he submitted Second Sons as his episode submission, I think there are far and away more frontrunners for him to scoop a second Emmy win.

Last year, Claire Danes invented a funny catchphrase when she mentioned in her speech “MANDY.PATINKIN. Holllaaa!” The same can be said now in this category, as Mandy Patinkin finally gets an overdue nomination for Homeland. This year, he made a terrific submission by going with The Choice, which is the show’s season finale. Add the fact that he is an Emmy veteran with previous wins and is nominated for what is Emmy’s most recent drama champ, and then it’s safe to say he’s in contention this year.

Two time nominee this year is Bobby Cannvale for his work in Nurse Jackie and Boardwalk Empire. Cannavale is one of those subtle favorites of the Emmys. He won one before for his Will & Grace stint, and he continues to rake in nods years after. It is surprising to note that he is the first Boardwalk actor to get nominated in this category, so that might factor in. He only has almost ten minutes of screentime in his submission Sunday Best, but each of his scenes leaves enough impact. His is the tape that does not need enough screentime, as he owns it every time he appears. Sadly though, the Academy has quite moved on from the show, so that can affect his chances.

Lastly, we’re off to two Breaking Bad guys again. Jonathan Banks is a first time nominee here, and it is very great of him to submit Say My Name. it is his best episode of the scene, and the show is a hoot among Emmy voters this year. In fact, it makes him very competitive for the win especially if they want to spread the wealth since co-star Aaron Paul has two Emmys already but…

… it’s Aaron Paul he’s contending with. The same narrative could have propelled Giancarlo Esposito for the win last year, but they decided to give Paul a second win instead. Not that he deserves it since he has a winning tape last year, but the past season of Breaking Bad is definitely one (if not THE) weakest season of Paul in the show. It also didn’t help Banks that Paul submitted Buyout instead. Let’s see if Paul wins a third one or they reserve it for next year.

In my opinion, the consensus in this race is now between Mandy Patinkin who s a respected veteran in a competitive role vs. Aaron Paul who, as proven last year, is loved by the Emmys in his own way. Between the two, I’d give the advantage over at Patinkin. With that said, I think I’m quite going crazy but I guess I have to go with Bobby Cannavale for a surprise win. I really can’t put a solid argument why (that’s why maybe he’ll lose), but I can sense his tape will lead some votes on his way.

Prediction: Bobby Cannavale, “Boardwalk Empire
Runner-Up: Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland

Full Rankings:
1. Bobby Cannavale, “Boardwalk Empire
2. Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland
3. Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
4.Jonathan Banks, “Breaking Bad”
5. Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
6. Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

supp actress drama

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Blythe Danner, “Huff[CORRECT]
2006:
Sandra Oh, “Grey’s Anatomy[WRONG]
2007:
Sandra Oh, “Grey’s Anatomy[WRONG]
2008:
Rachel Griffiths, “Brothers and Sisters[WRONG]
2009:
Rose Byrne, “Damages[WRONG]
2010:
Sharon Gless, “Burn Notice[WRONG]
2011:
Margo Martindale “Justified[CORRECT]
2012:
Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey[WRONG]

And boy does I suck in this category. LOL. However, it’s really the most bizarre acting category every year. If you want to find a WTF winner that wins out of nowhere, this category is the one you’re looking for. Though the past two years were from the undeniable frontrunners, so that probably says something with regards to how this category is changing. For this category, Archie Panjabi of The Good Wife finally bids goodbye as she misses for the first time. However, the biggest snub here goes to Monica Potter who definitely was so close to the nod, and I’m still sad that she failed to get one. Off to the contenders.

After three seasons, Game of Thrones finally managed to get a supporting actress nod. However, it’s sad that it went to Emilia Clarke, as a.) this is not her best season and b.) she is not the best supporting actress for the last one. The lack of a solid submission speaks so much about her chances this year. Nevertheless, submitting And Now His Watch is Ended is a good choice, since it has her money scene at the end, but for a 58 minute tape, appearing in the last five minutes won’t do you any favors.

Current champ Maggie Smith is back, and despite winning the last two years for the show, she still hasn’t appeared in any of the recent telecasts.  This can push the voters to look for other direction. But then again, it’s Maggie Smith. Maybe they just don’t care enough. After all, her team submitted the first episode of the third season where she has the interactions with Shirley Maclaine. That might be too irresistible for voters to pass up on.

Morena Baccarin closed out the Homeland acting love this year, as she completes the foursome of acting categories for the show. Judging by her episode State of Independence, I think she’s in contention for the win, as this gives her the big speech scene in the end about how a devotes wife she is to her husband. With that said, as much as Homeland can easily sweep this year, this category is the last of all the four acting ones that can win the trophy. I don’t think the Emmys will really show THAT much love to the show itself.

After losing last year for The Other WomanChristina Hendricks is probably just not destined for that Emmy. Maybe it’s the role, maybe it’s the show, but clearly, she’s not the type that voters want to reward. With that said, it’s still good to see her submit her best possible work of the season, and that’s A Tale of Two Cities. She gets the crying drama and confrontational scene in the end. It might be a consolation prize for losing last year, but then again, the show still hasn’t produced any acting win yet for its past five seasons. Who knows?

Anna Gunn is perceived to be the frontrunner this year especially since she has that slam dunk tape with Fifty-One. And boy did she really deliver; however, I’m worried that increasing expectations with her tape can possibly result to a disappointment as it’s not the showy histrionic type of tape that usually ends up winning Emmys. But then again, Breaking Bad is enjoying an immense amount of love for the show, and if they love it more, she might be the next one after co-stars Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul to clutch an Emmy.

Lastly, despite not having a co-star anymore, Christine Baranski adds another nomination as she’s 4/4 for The Good Wife. I actually am surprised that she still hasn’t won an Emmy yet, hers is the type of role that usually lands instant wins. As for her tape The Seven Day Rule, I think she has other better submissions this year, but I guess she’s going for impact more than screentime, as her episode ends with a confrontational talk to Juliana Margulies’ character. If she can push her veteran status more, then maybe she still has that little chance.

All in all, the huge amount of buzz can bring Anna Gunn to the top with a win this year. After all, she’s still urnewarded, and the show will definitely end up with at least a major win come Emmy night. Of course, it’s still not right to dismiss Maggie Smith at all, as she can sashay this role to a third win with no sweat. I guess I just have to give in to with my personal thoughts, and pick Gunn for the win.

Prediction: Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad
Runner-Up: Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey

Full Rankings:
1. Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad
2. Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey
3. Morena Baccarin, “Homeland
4. Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men”
5. Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife
6. Emilia Clarke, “Game of Thrones” 

You can see my other Emmy predictions by clicking them here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Writing and Directing in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama writing

 

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Lost, “Pilot[WRONG]
2006:
Grey’s Anatomy, “It’s the End of the World/Life As We Know It[WRONG]
2007:
The Sopranos, “Made in America” [CORRECT]
2008:
Mad Men, “Smoke Gets in Your Eyes[CORRECT]
2009:
Mad Men, “A Night to Remember[WRONG]
2010:
Mad Men, “Shut the Door, Have a Seat[CORRECT]
2011:
Mad Men, “The Suitcase[WRONG]
2012:
Downton Abbey, “Episode 7” [WRONG]

After discussing the writing and directing episodes in the comedy genre, we now move on the drama ones where the competition is really intense. To say that these categories are crazy is actually an understatement, as one can make a case for almost all the nominated episodes. Once again, let’s begin with the writing one, which is shocking as for the first time, Mad Men was snubbed in this category. I’d pay to be a fly on the wall of Matt Weiner’s office when he saw this nomination list.

Like with last year, Downton Abbey puts all their eggs in one basket by submitting only a single episode for consideration. And as predicted, it easily gets the nomination despite stiff competition from a lot of shows this year.  With that said, if last year’s Christmas episode can’t figure out a win despite being the frontrunner last year, I don’t see how this one will figure out in this year’s race.

Then we have last year’s Homeland, whose win was a bit of a surprise considering the show’s pilot was penned as a frontrunner in the directing category and ended up losing there and winning here instead. For this year, they got nominated for one of the most talked about episodes of the past TV season. I’m fairly confident that they will eat up Q&A, so it’s not wise to dismiss them this year.

Speaking of those directing/writing mash-up, it is surprising that the most buzzed episode of the past year, Game of Thrones’ Rains of Castamere ended up nominated for its writing than its showy directing. While this can easily go the route of Homeland’s pilot last year and might contend for the win here, I don’t know if the writing is the stand out aspect of the episode.

And after a string of snubs year in and year out, not only does Breaking Bad finally get nominated, but they got two episodes in this category! However, it’s fairly shocking that it’s not for their more buzzed episodes this season (like Fifty-One). While getting nommed twice ensues confidence in the show, and that this category has no problems with vote splitting, there’s not a standout between the two of them that will propel them to a win. If needed to choose though, I’d go with Say My Name.

As for the winner, I still see a scenario of Game of Thrones  winning as a reward for the episode altogether… or possibly a Breaking Bad win as a late consolation. But I guess I’ll stick with Homeland’s to win here for the second year.

Prediction: Homeland, “Q&A
Runner-Up: Game of Thrones, “Rains of Castamere

Full Rankings:
1. Homeland, “Q&A
2. Game of Thrones, “Rains of Castamere
3. Breaking Bad, “Say My Name
4. Downton Abbey, “Episode 4”
5. Breaking Bad, “Dead Freight” 

drama directing

 

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Lost, “Pilot[CORRECT]
2006:
Six Feet Under, “Everyone’s Waiting[WRONG]
2007:
The Sopranos, “Kennedy and Heidi[CORRECT]
2008:
House, “House’s Head[CORRECT]
2009:
Mad Men, “The Jet Set[WRONG]
2010:
Lost, “The End[WRONG]
2011:
Boardwalk Empire “Pilot[CORRECT]
2012:
Homeland, “Pilot” [WRONG]

Now for the directing episode, let’s begin by continuing where we ended up in the upper part of the discussion. Homeland’s Q&A is nominated for both writing and directing this year. And while it is the writing frontrunner, the same can’t be said here. After all, it is rare for episodes to sweep writing and directing episodes in the same year. Also, the show lost last year despite being the undeniable frontrunner for its pilot episode. The only way I see it wins is if they really embrace Q&A.

Aside from Homeland, Downton Abbey is also nominated here. And I think this is an even longer shot than its writing chances. However, they keep nominating the show, so maybe all it needs is a passionate batch of supporters and can pull off an upset.

During the nomination predictions, the overwhelming frontrunner here is Looper director Rian Johnson’s directed Breaking Bad episode Fifty One. Surprisingly, it’s not the BB episode nominated, and Gliding Over All made it instead. I actually think this has a chance here, and isn’t it awesome for a female director to be rewarded? With that said, the past two years has an overwhelming female directors nodded too and that didn’t work in their favor.

Last year’s surprise winner was Tim van Patten for his work in Boardwalk Empire. Now he’s back for Margate Sand, but one factor that won’t work for him this time is the overdue narrative that probably pushed him last year. Last year was his first directing Emmy win despite dozens of nominations already, and the ATAS probably think it’s time to give him one. While he can still pull a consecutive win, I don’t think it’ll be enough.

Lastly, there’s David Fincher for the pilot episode of House of Cards. When movie star directors are nominated for Emmys, they usually go on and win instantly. However, there are still instances of them losing out such as Quentin Tarantino’s buzzed episode for CSI in 2005, so it’s not as easy victory for Fincher.

With all that said, I think Fincher will still barely have the edge to pull off that win. He might not be Martin Scorsese levels of lock in 2011, but he’s a pretty respected director that is on his first Emmy nomination so I’m still confident with him winning in the end.

Prediction: House of Cards, “Episode 1
Runner-Up: Breaking Bad, “Gliding Over All”

Full Rankings:
1. House of Cards, “Episode 1
2. Breaking Bad, “Gliding Over All”
3. Homeland, “Q&A
4. Boardwalk Empire, “Margate Sands
5. Downton Abbey, “Episode 4

Next part of the series will now tackle the supporting categories!

To check my complete Emmy predictions, you can see them here.

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama guest actor

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Martin Landau, “Without a Trace[WRONG]
2006:
Christian Clemenson, “Boston Legal[CORRECT]
2007:
David Morse, “House[WRONG]
2008:
Glynn Turmann, “In Treatment[CORRECT]
2009:
Michael J. Fox, “Rescue Me[CORRECT]
2010:
John Lithgow, “Dexter [CORRECT]
2011:
Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife[WRONG]
2012:
Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife” [WRONG]

It’s now time to complete the male and drama guest acting nods, so it’s pretty obvious that what I’ll discuss next is Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series. For this year, notable snubs include two time previous nominee Dylan Baker in his turn for The Good Wife, multiple Emmy winner Ray Romano for Parenthood, and another year for Matthew Perry missing also for The Good Wife. Let’s begin!

Speaking of The Good Wife, despite many snubs, two actors from the show still made it in for this year. First, there’s three time nominee Michael J. Fox. Among his past three submissions, I think this one had him in his longest exposure.  In his episode submission Boom De Yah Da, not only will we see a glimpse of his wife, but it shows his character help someone block the case handled by arch nemesis Alicia Florrick. Granted it’s not the nicest deed we’ve seen from Louis, but that did not prevent them from nominating him before.

As for the other Good Wife actor, Nathan Lane gets his second guest acting nomination this year for his role as Clarke Hayden. He submits the season opener I Fought the Law which was the first time we’ve seen him on the show. However, this episode did not give him anything to do aside from roaming and appearing in the crowd, and I don’t think it will do him any favors. He appears in co-star Michael J. Fox’s tape, but they have no scene together, so it won’t have any bearing on their chances.

Now Mad Men also gets two of its actors in this category. After missing last year, Robert Morse is back for another shot at the win. Just when you thought they finally dropped him for good, he comes back roaring. Sadly for him, he still wasn’t given much to do, and his tape For Immediate Release proved it. He was on it for five minutes tops, and that’s mostly comprised of just reacting to his co-stars or sitting in a chair.

Aside from Morse, Harry Hamlin also picked up a nod for Mad Men. As opposed to Morse, Hamlin actually gets a good tape with A Tale of Two Cities, we see Jim Cutler work on the renaming of the agency. He gets confrontational scenes, some shoutings, and a decent amount of screentime in his episode.

Then we have Homeland‘s first nod in this category with Rupert Friend nominated. Like everyone else, it’s wise of him to submit Q&A as his episode. Not only is this the show’s most acclaimed episode this season, he also has a hefty amount of moments in it. If the voters love the show (and episode) so much, he can contend for the win. But sometimes, Emmys has a thign against good looking actors, and Friend can easily be a victim of that.

Lastly, there’s Dan Bucatinsky as the first male nominee from Scandal. While one can argue that Scandal is the weakest show here, as it is bordering on soap opera, what’s fantastic about it is he will probably have the most memorable and over the top scene with his confrontation with his partner. He also gets a court scene that involves him testifying to something. With previous winners here winning from In Treatment to Harry’s Law, it doesn’t need for a nominee to be in a Drama Series nod to get recognized here.

There really is no serious frontrunner in this category. While I predicted Michael J. Fox the past two years, I don’t think I’ll go with him for the third time (now watch him win this year!). Harry Hamlin is an 80s TV star who has notable credits under his name and one can see him as overdue for an Emmy win. With that said, I’ll go with Rupert Friend to get carried away with the Homeland love, as Q&A is one of the defining episodes of the past Emmy season. If not him, then watch out for Dan Bucatinsky to win here for a scene stealing episode among his contemporaries.

Prediction: Rupert Friend, Homeland
Runner-Up: Dan Bucatinsky, Scandal

Full Rankings:
1. Rupert Friend, Homeland
2. Dan Bucatinsky, Scandal
3. Harry Hamlin, Mad Men
4. Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife
5. Nathan Lane, The Good Wife
6. Robert Morse, Mad Men

To check out other Emmy predictions, simply click here.

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl