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67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama supp actor

Prediction: Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul”
Alternate: Ben Mendelsohn, “Bloodline”

Full Rankings:
01. Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul”
02. Ben Mendelsohn, “Bloodline”
03. Michael Kelly, “House of Cards”
04. Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
05. Alan Cumming, “The Good Wife
06. Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series   1 comment

Emmy Drama Supp Actor

After assessing the races for both supporting actress in a drama and comedy series, we now move on to the guys and predict one of this year’s toughest acting categories. This year, once again, is no exception as there is no sure contender to win this one. Let’s now go over their chances one by one.

Despite the Homeland shutout, Mandy Patinkin manages to stay for another season of a nomination. This year, he submitted “Gerontion”, it showed two sides of Saul: the first one as the fierce competent team player of the CIA and the other as a devoted husband to his wife. Patinkin’s tape, while totally not a showstopper, is really good, but in a competitive race like this, tape alone won’t bring you any close to a win. After all, it seems like he’s not much of an Emmy darling lately missing a nod for the show’s first season and losing last year when he’s a frontrunner. This year, I think his nomination is his reward.

Doing a comeback after his first and only nod three years ago, Josh Charles final season on The Good Wife is one of the most buzzed characters of the past TV season. That said, he avoided that storyline altogether and submitted what is considered as the best episode the show has ever done. In Hitting the Fan, Will discovered that Alicia and Cary are starting their own firm and taking away some of their big clients which caused ruckus in the whole office. While most episodes usually end up with something shocking in their submissions, Charles does the opposite by starting it with one. Literally, the first dozen minutes or so of the episode is a highlight for him, and I think this will appeal well to the voters.

Downton Abbey continues to show its strength to its voters via Jim Carter‘s third consecutive nomination. And while the last two years haven’t been really competitive for him, this year marked his first real great submission via Episode 1 of the fourth season. In this almost two hour episode, we see him deal with a significant person from his past, his former song-and dance partner Mr. Grick, whom he had a falling out with. And in true old movie film fashion, the reason for such was a love triangle. Of course, things were patched up in the end via an emotional trains station meet up. I’m inclined to think that in a weaker year, Carter would have stood a chance of even winning for this stuff. Unfortunately for him, this is one of the most competitive ones in recent years, and while I don’t dismiss his chances altogether, he’s lurking on the outside in terms of Emmy talk.

Winning the Golden Globe earlier this year is Ray Donovan‘s Jon Voight. With the chance of him earning his first Emmy, he submits Fite Nite which had him in most of the episode in cuffs. This is an intense episode where both he and guest star Rossana Arquette were tied and a hitman deciding their fate. This ends up with a death of a character and the revelations before that mentioned death, and Voight goes on a gamut of emotions in it. There’s also a certain level of physicality in lay as he’s being tied in the most crucial scenes of the episode. While Ray Donovan clearly wasn’t embraced by Emmys, his status as a Hollywood veteran might make up for that.

2011 champ Peter Dinklage aims to win his second Emmy for his role as Tyrion Lannister after winning for the show’s first season. In one of the most acclaimed episodes of the season, he chose the to submit The Laws of God and Men which had his trial after being accused as responsible for the death of King Joffrey in the prior episode. Nothing says Emmy bait like a trial, and here, Dinklage was indeed exceptional. He goes on a speech before the episode ends especially after his lover was used as a witness against him. That said, his first appearance comes within the last 20 minutes of the episode and that’s too much for voters with short patience.

Lastly, aiming to be the most rewarded actor in the history of this category, Aaron Paul is in hunt for a historic third win here for Breaking Bad. And he’s surely in the hunt again with his episode submission Confessions. After being grilled by hank about his involvement in all the drug trafficking in their place, Saul bailed him and gave him a new identity. But this did not sit well with him, as he ran amok and attacked him before going to Walt’s house. Talk about intense, the last 10 minutes of the episode is acting with a capital A for Aaron who’s loud and showy acting is really present. This can go well or not with the voters, and while no other actor has won twice before, it was Paul who managed to defeat the no repeat winner record in this category for 15 years. So if there’s one who can break another record, it’s probably him.

Like what I said, this is really a difficult category as a lot of these actors make sense and all of them would have been frontrunners or automatic winners in any other year. While I won’t be surprised if Dinklage wins, I’m putting him at fourth here. I think his tape is great, but the lack of appearance during half of the tape will affect him. I’m putting Voight at third because it’s a very Emmy thing to reward him in a crowd like this. Plus, the reasons I mentioned above. I think it’s a choice between Charles and Paul and while both of them are on their last possible nominations for their respective roles, 2 Emmy wins for Paul in the past as compared to none for Charles will seal the deal here. Thus, I’m going with Josh Charles for the win.

Prediction: Josh Charles, “The Good Wife
Alternate: Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad

Full Rankings:
01. Josh Charles, “The Good Wife
02. Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
03. Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan
04. Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
05. Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey
06. Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

 

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 4: Drama   Leave a comment

Hi there everyone! You’re still reading Tit for Tat’s 66th Emmy coverage. For the past three days, I have been sharing to you my predictions on who I think will be up for Emmy awards for this year. So before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the official nominees in the Reality and Variety, TV Movie and Miniseries, and Comedy genres, let’s finish this prediction series with the most serious genre of them all: drama!

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Directing

• Boardwalk Empire, Farewell Daddy Blues (Tim van Patten)
• Breaking Bad, Felina (Vince Gilligan)
• Downton Abbey, Episode 1 (David Evans)
• Masters of Sex, Pilot (John Madden)
• True Detective, Who Goes There (Cary Fukunaga)

Sixth nominee: House of Cards, Chapter 14 (Carl Franklin)

And let’s begin with Directing. Despite Boardwalk Empire falling off the Series and Lead Actor nods that they received during the show’s first two seasons, it’s safe to say that they haven’t lost their touch yet with the directors voting branch. For its past three seasons, the show has received two wins out of four nods, so we can all rely on Tim van Patten receiving his fourth consecutive nomination in here for the season finale Farewell Daddy Blues. You can also count on Downton Abbey to get in here since they’re very strategic about this whole Emmy process that they submit only one episode, so if the voters want to reward the show, Episode 1 is their only option to do so. Probably the most buzzed directorial achievement this year, Cary Fukunaga’s eight minute long track shot in True Detective’s Who Goes There isn’t only a nominee sure bet, but a frontrunner for the win as well. And can we talk about how this category loves its pilots and finales? Yep that’s right. Thus, I’m predicting one a piece for the pilot of Masters of Sex directed by Shakespeare in Love director John Madden, and of course, the finale of Breaking Bad by creator Vince Gilligan. Watch out for House of Cards though since it is the current champ in this category.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Writing

• Breaking Bad, Felina (Vince Gilligan)
• Breaking Bad, Ozymandias (Moira Walley-Beckett)
• Downton Abbey, Episode 1 (Julian Fellowes)
• Game of Thrones, The Children (David Benoiff, D.B. Weiss)
• True Detective, The Secret Fate of All Life (Nic Pizzolatto)

Sixth nominee: Mad Men, Waterloo (Carly Wray, Matthew Weiner)

As for the writing, it’s safe to assume that all these Downton Abbey fans in the Academy will simply check it off the Writing and Directing ballot so a nod here is expected (just like the past two years). After years of snubbing, Breaking Bad finally entered the race last year with two nominations, and I expect them to have the same fate this year — one for their finale Ozymandias and the other for their most submitted episode in the Emmy ballot, Felina. Unlike Downton Abbey though, True Detective only has one writer for the whole season; thus it can only submit one episode for consideration, so I’m expecting all its supports to push The Secret Fate of All Life to make it in here. As for the last spot, despite the show being a flashier directorial bet, it seems like the writers branch is the oen appreciative of Game of Thrones given their two nods here for the last two years. Therefore, I placed it here for their season finale episode.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Guest Actor

• Michael Bowen, “Breaking Bad
• Beau Bridges, “Masters of Sex
• Dan Bucatinsky, “Scandal
• Nathan Lane, “The Good Wife
• Robert Morse, “Mad Men
• Pedro Pascal, “Game of Thrones

Seventh nominee: Louis Gossett Jr., “Boardwalk Empire

Well let’s begin with curent champ Dan Bucatinsky. Without spoiling anything, I think he’s not only in for a consecutive nod, bur he’s very much in for a consecutive win as well with that very baity episode. And since there’s no Michael J. Fox in tow, it paves the way for a repeat Nathan Lane nod as he’s the torchbearer of The Good Wife in this category for this year. Robert Morse of Mad Men has been nominated here four out of the last six times he’s eligible, and with a buzzed season he had, it’s safe to assume he’ll be back in the line up again. The same buzz surrounds Game of Thrones actor Pedro Pascal (and that’s solely not for his shirtless photo that he posted!) and with Game of Thrones‘ haul looking to be its biggest year by far, he’ll definitely be in for the ride. Then there’s semi-favorite Beau Bridges. His lauded performance in Masters of Sex already assures him of a nod, but the fact that he’s been nominated here twice the past four years means he has more support than expected. As for that last spot, I’m giving it to Breaking Bad actor Michael Bowen since I think this will be a redux of the Mark Margolis nom two years ago. He’s in the scenes most with the leads, and that can spread the wealth to his impending nod.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Guest Actress

• Kate Burton, “Scandal
• Jane Fonda, “The Newsroom
• Allison Janney, “Masters of Sex
• Lisa Kudrow, “Scandal
• Carrie Preston, “The Good Wife
• Diana Rigg, “Game of Thrones

Seventh nominee: Margo Martindale, “The Americans

Aside from current champ Carrie Preston of The Good Wife and current frontrunenr Allison Janney of Masters of Sex, this is quite a lukewarm category as compared to its male counterpart. Sure there’s Dame Diana Rigg whose season wasn’t as sure like the last one, but I don’t see the Emmys dropping her easily this year, so I’m predicting a nod for her. Then there’s Jane Fonda who can’t even win last year with her legend status and baity tape, and with The Newsroom being less of a factor at all, I can see her missing. That said, she’s been visible lately with her tribute, so maybe another nod isn’t totally out of reach. Then for the last two spots, I’m going a bit heavy on Scandal guest actresses. First, there’s Emmy winner Lisa Kudrow. Though her guest appearance doesn’t scream “sure Emmy contender”, I think hers is one of the most buzzed guesting of the TV drama season that she can coast to a nod for it. It’s not surprising if she misses though especially since Kate Burton is also in contention. Shonda Rhimes made Kate Burton a multiple time nominee here for Grey’s Anatomy before, I easily think she can do a repeat of that, this time for her role in Scandal.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Supp Actor

• Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey
• Josh Charles, “The Good Wife
• Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
• Dean Norris, “Breaking Bad
• Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
• Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan

Seventh nominee: Charles Dance, “Game of Thrones

Both previous winners Peter Dinklage and Aaron Paul are safe already methinks. And in the tradition of farewell shows getting in more nods for their cast (see Kristin Davis in Sex in the City in 2004, Matthew Fox in Lost in 2010), I expect Dean Norris to finally snatch a nomination for himself as well. I’ve been adamant about Jim Carter, but I already made the mistake of dropping him last year only to be fooled when the noms were announced. So I’m sticking for him now. With how his fate in the show shocked the whole TV crowd, I expect Josh Charles to get his second nod for The Good Wife three years after he received his first. As for that last slot, I think the Globes affirmed more than ever on how it values its movie stars, Jon Voight will get that veteran slot for his first season performance in Ray Donovan. If not him, then maybe Game of Thrones adds another acting performance via another veteran, Charles Dance.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Supp Actress

• Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife
• Emilia Clarke, “Game of Thrones
• Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey
• Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad
• Michelle Monaghan, “True Detective
• Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey

Seventh nominee: Bellamy Young, “Scandal

Clusterfuck. That’s what this category is. Well let’s start with the regulars. Current champ Anna Gunn, 2012 winner Dame Maggie Smith, and perennial nominee Christine Baranski are the three safest in this line up that’s for sure. Then as for the other three, I’m going with a repeat of Emilia Clarke’s nod simply because I think Emmy has a disconnect with who owns which season when it comes to nominating actors from Game of Thrones. If she managed to get in last year with that lackluster of a season, I wouldn’t have high expectations that she will be dropped this year for doing less of that. Then there’s Michelle Monaghan, who I’m really not convinced. It seems like True Detective was 80% McConaughey and 20% Harrelson, that they won’t even care about the others. I can see a scenario where someone who makes sense to get nominated suddenly is nowhere to be found (Nicollette Sheridan in 2005, Corey Stoll last year), though I’m counting on Monaghan’s C-list movie star status to somehow help her here. The last spot is the riskiest of them all, as I’m going with a comeback narrative for Joanne Frogatt simply because her storyline the past season is too in your face to ignore. I have Bellamy Young as a replacement just because I find it weird if Scandal gets five(!) acting nominations and it’s not even close to be a Series contender, so I think she’s the most vulnerable.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Lead Actor

• Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad
• Jon Hamm, “Mad Men
• Woody Harrelson, “True Detective
• Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
• Michael Sheen, “Masters of Sex
• Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards

Seventh nominee: James Spader, “The Blacklist

Talk about crowded. This category has at least 10 names in contention that makes a whole lotta sense. Let’s begin with Bryan Cranston. We actually can end it now with Cranston as well, but yeah he’s sooo getting in. Then there’s 2x Oscar winner Kevin Spacey. Sure his name didn’t exactly bring him to the podium last year, but this is a tailor made role for him that he’ll be a mainstay at these awards shows even if the show has already faltered. I think regardless of Mad Men‘s fate as a whole, Jon Hamm is another of those perennial nominees that will still get in, so I think he’s safe, albeit a bit vulnerable, for this year. And let’s go to the newbies. As for starters, we have the pair of True Detective actors here, and I predict both of them getting in. Well McConaughey is the more obvious one, and I see him contending for the win as well, but I’m going with Harrelson too since I predict that they’ll just check both of their names off. Plus this is not a priority vote ranking that will hurt the latter. That said, I won’t be surprised if he misses though since as I mentioned above, True Detective was 80% McConaughey and 20% Harrelson. As for that last slot, I contemplated going with James Spader, and he makes sense actually since he’s in a hit show and it’s a comeback performance, and this category really loves him (I mean come on, he won over James Gandolfini for the last season of The Sopranos). Then there’s also Downton Abbey‘s Hugh Bonneville and current champ Jeff Daniels of The Newsroom, but I think we’d see the start of decline of Downton starting this year and The Newsroom is as DOA as one can get per HBO standards. Thus, I’m going with previous Emmy nominee Michael Sheen since I;m quite confident of Masters of Sex delivering on Emmy nomination day.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Lead Actress

• Claire Danes, “Homeland
• Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey
• Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel
• Juliana Margulies, “The Good Wife
• Kerry Washington, “Scandal
• Robin Wright, “House of Cards

Seventh nominee: Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men

And here’s another crowded one. Let’s begin by saying that despite Homeland turning into some mega shit show for its third season, Claire Danes still rises above the occasion, and I don’t think she’ll be snubbed ala Margulies last year. After all, she’s still the reigning champ in here. Speaking of Margulies, I believe that last year was just a fluke and a case where everyone thought she’s safe already that’s why they’re spreading the wealth (like how Allison Janney was snubbed in 2005), and with The Good Wife‘s heavily buzzed season, she’s so coming back for another nomination. If Robin Wright managed to get in last year for a borderline supporting role, I see no problem for her getting in this year again with even a winning tape in her hands. I’m sticking with Michelle Dockery still just because I really don’t think they’d dropped anything Downton that quick, and I have Hugh Bonneville as the sacrificial lamb of the show already. Kerry Washington who can’t even win for the love of God a Golden Globe or a SAG for Scandal, has a stronger narrative last year than this year, but I think she’s still safe at least this year. As for that last spot, I keep going back and forth with Elisabeth Moss and Vera Farmiga, but I really don’t think they’ll drop the Oscar nominee instantly especially after her surprise nomination last year as opposed to Mad Men who’s on a decline with their nods. Now watch them nominate all seven of them now.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Series

• Breaking Bad (AMC)
• Downton Abbey (PBS)
• Game of Thrones (HBO)
• House of Cards (Netflix)
• Masters of Sex (Showtime)
True Detective (HBO)

Seventh nominee: Mad Men (AMC)

As if we haven’t had any headaches with the Drama categories yet, but yes, Series is tough to predict. Unless, you know, they go with seven nominees. Bu let’s assume there are only six. I think we can separate them into this: Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and True Detective are safe no matter what. They’re clearly the upper tier in this one. No matter what happens to the rest of the line up, we can expect to see these three here. And then I’d go and say Downton Abbey is fourth here. Like I’m sure you’re also wondering who effin still supports Downton Abbey, the answer is: Emmy voting panel. I’d love to be wrong here, but let’s not kid ourselves. Then we have Showtime’s slot. I think Masters of Sex is being quite underrated as a whole, but this is clearly Showtime’s priority this year, and they have been doing a smooth run for its campaign. I think this will be the surprise of the contenders here. For that last spot, there’s Mad Men who is a 4x champ and has been nominated for all of its seasons by far, but really, the show’s buzz has just been absent all along. Not even at the guild precursors. It’s literally MIA as far as buzz is felt, though who knows? After all, the Emmys are the last group to react to buzz of shows. Then there’s also House of Cards. After its premiere last February, the show has been eclipsed by it’s Netflix sister Orange is the New Black. But to its favor, there’s still some clout left under its rug, and this is Netflix’ drama priority while Mad Men plays second fiddle to Breaking Bad. there’s a big chance they’d go seven nominees still (or even The Good Wife making that comeback), but for now I’d choose House of Cards by a small  margin.

Finally it’s over! Are you excited for the announcement later? Do you think Mad Men will be able to maintain its perfect Series nomination record? How much of Downton Abbey will go down in terms of nominations? And can Jeff Daniels overcome the jinx and get a chance to retain his title? Go on and share your thoughts in the comments section. 🙂

Don’t forget you ca follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series   3 comments

supp actor drama

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Terry O’Quinn, “Lost[WRONG]
2006:
Alan Alda, “The West Wing[CORRECT]
2007:
Michael Imperioli, “The Sopranos[WRONG]
2008:
Zeljko Ivanek, “Damages[CORRECT]
2009:
Christian Clemenson, “Boston Legal[WRONG]
2010:
Andre Braugher, “Men of a Certain Age[WRONG]
2011:
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones[CORRECT]
2012:
Jared Harris, “Mad Men” [WRONG]

Now off to the supporting female counterparts, let’s shift the moment on to the men’s side. Last year, Aaron Paul made history by being the first supporting actor who won a second Emmy in this category in fourteen years. This year, he can continue to beat his own record by winning a third one. Let’s see his possible competition.

Jim Carter surprisingly received another nomination for his work in Downton Abbey. Though the love for his show has somewhat cooled down, it still has fire enough in it to pull off some major wins. With that said, it is good on his part to submit he first episode of the third season which runs for almost two episodes already. But with that said, I guess the best part of his nomination this year is that he and his wife Imelda Staunton (nominated for Supporting Actress in a Movie or Miniseries) are both nominated.

2011 winner in this category Peter Dinklage received his third straight nomination for Game of Thrones. It is luck for his part that he won on the season with no Breaking Bad, as he competed in a weaker competition that year. Otherwise, I think he might have joined the ranks of other consistent but no Emmy win nominated guys such as Mad Men’s John Slattery. While he submitted Second Sons as his episode submission, I think there are far and away more frontrunners for him to scoop a second Emmy win.

Last year, Claire Danes invented a funny catchphrase when she mentioned in her speech “MANDY.PATINKIN. Holllaaa!” The same can be said now in this category, as Mandy Patinkin finally gets an overdue nomination for Homeland. This year, he made a terrific submission by going with The Choice, which is the show’s season finale. Add the fact that he is an Emmy veteran with previous wins and is nominated for what is Emmy’s most recent drama champ, and then it’s safe to say he’s in contention this year.

Two time nominee this year is Bobby Cannvale for his work in Nurse Jackie and Boardwalk Empire. Cannavale is one of those subtle favorites of the Emmys. He won one before for his Will & Grace stint, and he continues to rake in nods years after. It is surprising to note that he is the first Boardwalk actor to get nominated in this category, so that might factor in. He only has almost ten minutes of screentime in his submission Sunday Best, but each of his scenes leaves enough impact. His is the tape that does not need enough screentime, as he owns it every time he appears. Sadly though, the Academy has quite moved on from the show, so that can affect his chances.

Lastly, we’re off to two Breaking Bad guys again. Jonathan Banks is a first time nominee here, and it is very great of him to submit Say My Name. it is his best episode of the scene, and the show is a hoot among Emmy voters this year. In fact, it makes him very competitive for the win especially if they want to spread the wealth since co-star Aaron Paul has two Emmys already but…

… it’s Aaron Paul he’s contending with. The same narrative could have propelled Giancarlo Esposito for the win last year, but they decided to give Paul a second win instead. Not that he deserves it since he has a winning tape last year, but the past season of Breaking Bad is definitely one (if not THE) weakest season of Paul in the show. It also didn’t help Banks that Paul submitted Buyout instead. Let’s see if Paul wins a third one or they reserve it for next year.

In my opinion, the consensus in this race is now between Mandy Patinkin who s a respected veteran in a competitive role vs. Aaron Paul who, as proven last year, is loved by the Emmys in his own way. Between the two, I’d give the advantage over at Patinkin. With that said, I think I’m quite going crazy but I guess I have to go with Bobby Cannavale for a surprise win. I really can’t put a solid argument why (that’s why maybe he’ll lose), but I can sense his tape will lead some votes on his way.

Prediction: Bobby Cannavale, “Boardwalk Empire
Runner-Up: Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland

Full Rankings:
1. Bobby Cannavale, “Boardwalk Empire
2. Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland
3. Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
4.Jonathan Banks, “Breaking Bad”
5. Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
6. Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey” (Episode 2)
• Brendan Coyle, “Downton Abbey” (Episode 7: Christmas Episode)
• Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones” (Blackwater)
• Giancarlo Esposito, “Breaking Bad” (Hermanos)
• Jared Harris, “Mad Men” (Commissions and Fees)
• Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad” (End Times)

I’m actually surprised how strong Jim Carter‘s tape is. He has tons of screentime, and he has a story running throughout the episode. He was showy as one can get for a supporting role, and having two tapes certainly increases his chance. However, the main problem I have with both Downton actors is that when you compare their episodes alongside the four nominated actors, it lacked the certain emotional gravitas that will make you rank them on top of your ballot. That’s what Carter needs to overcome in terms of his Emmy chances. If Carter is the showier Downton actor, co-star Brendan Coyle relies on poignant, quiet moments in his episode. One can argue that despite not having a huge amount of screentime, all hisc scenes with Joanne Froggatt in his episode really stands out on its own. However, not even an additional episode care of co-nominee Carter can increase his chances of passing all the other men to receive the Emmy next month. He’s a perfect example of getting nominated is the reward already. Current title holder Peter Dinklage submits Blackwater where in he has that inspirational speech in the middle of the action-packed episode. This is an improvement over his supposed previous submission; however is this enough for him to retain the title? I don’t think so. First, he submitted the most buzzed episode of the season again, and I don’t blame him for that after Baelor did give him his much deserved Emmy last year. But for some reason, Blackwater wasn’t received by the Emmys the same way Baelor did. Plus, this category is stronger this year than last year, so voters might spread the wealth. Giancarlo Esposito plays the best villain on TV right now, and it’s good that he gets nominated this season. He also benefits from the fact that the last few minutes of his submitted episode really leaves an impact to the watchers. Paul’s tape does not give him that much of a showcase, though it is safe to say that his presence was felt in the other episode as well. If fans of the show want to spread the wealth, they might opt to go with Esposito as their personal choice for the win this year. I also think he is the most buzzed nominee in this category which also helps his chances. Perennial nominee John Slattery skipped a nod this year, and the Mad Men actor who replaced him is none other than Jared Harris. His tape revolves around a life changing situation that ends with a very baity scene. He portrayed depression intricately and his submitted episode ends with a resolution. Harris has been a consistent player in Mad Men for years, and if Mad Men finally gets an acting win at the Emmys, I won’t be surprised if Harris is the one where they’ll reward with the trophy. 2010 winner Aaron Paul comes back after a season of ineligibility, and his chosen episode is very competitive to say the least. The difference between his and co-star Esposito’s tapes is that while Esposito’s tape leaves you with an impact after seeing it, Paul’s acting is the one responsible for the impact that his submission gives you. His moment in the middle of the episode with Cranston is every inch intense, riveting, and on spot great acting. However, if voters are not fan of in your face acting style, I can see them resorting to other nominees. However, between him and Dinklage, he’s the likelier to repeat a win.

It is noteworthy to see that there have been no repeat winners in this category for sixteen years now, and while that seems more of a coincidence than a trend, it is difficult to dismiss it as such. With that said, I’m leaning to an Esposito vs Harris among the newbies with Paul as a likely spoiler to siphon votes between the two. This is a nailbiter until the envelope will be opened come Emmy night.

Prediction: Jared Harris, “Mad Men”
Dark Horse: Giancarlo Esposito, “Breaking Bad”

Complete rankings:

1. Harris
2. Esposito
3. Paul
4. Dinklage
5. Carter
6. Coyle