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68th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 3: Comedy   Leave a comment

After the reality and variety, plus TV movie and limited series, we continue our 2016 Emmy prediction series with the hilarious shows and performances from our comedy shows. Last year, Veep dominated winning Series, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Writing. Will they pull off the same feat again this year? Can Jim Parsons come back in the race? And will they finally give up on Modern Family?

comedy directing

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• black-ish, “Any Given Saturday” (Gail Mancuso)
• Master of None, “Parents” (Aziz Ansari)
• Silicon Valley, “Founder Friendly” (Mike Judge)
• Transparent, “Man on the Land” (Jill Solloway)
• Veep, “Kissing Your Sister” (David Mandel)
• Veep, “Mother” (Dale Stern)

Seventh nominee: Silicon Valley, “Daily Active Users” (Alec Berg)

Let’s begin by me saying that I think black-ish would have a huge Emmy breakout this season. I mean, sure maybe Anthony Anderson’s surprise nod last year was maybe due to a tie, but whatever. The improved quality of the second season had the critics pushing for it. It’s also somehow of a statement show, and it says a lot that Emmy winner Gail Mancuso decided to submit for this show instead of 4x winner Modern Family here. I’ll also probably predict a lot of Master of None here, and maybe Aziz Ansari follows Lena Dunham and Louis C.K. to pick up nods for their directing and writing efforts too. Silicon Valley, Transparent, and Veep are mainstays here and it’s just a matter of choosing which show will pick up multiple nominations. Thus, bet on current Emmy champ Veep to be it.

comedy writing

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• black-ish, “Hope” (Kenya Barris)
• Lady Dynamite, “Pilot” (Pam Brady & Mitch Hurwitz)
• Master of None, “Parents” (Aziz Ansari & Alan Yang)
• Silicon Valley, “The Uptick” (Alec Berg)
• Transparent, “Man on the Land” (Ali Liebegott)
• Veep, “Mother” (Alex Gregory & Peter Huyck)

Seventh nominee: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, “Kimmy Finds Her Mom!” (Tina Fey & Sam Means)

It’s unfortunate that Lady Dynamite didn’t have an explosion in terms of reception, but it’s the writers we’re talking about here, and they’re more reactive to quality as compared to the other branches; thus, a pilot written by multiple Emmy winner Mitch Hurwitz does stand a chance to get nominated. After that, we have the same five shows I’m predicting for Directing, though if there’s a spoiler here, maybe Tina Fey gets back in the race, her first since 30 Rock.

comedy guest actor

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

• Fred Armisen, “Saturday Night Live
• Larry David, “Saturday Night Live”
• Peter MacNicol, “Veep”
• Tracy Morgan, “Saturday Night Live”
• Martin Mull, “Veep”
• Bradley Whitford, “Transparent”

Seventh nominee: Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory”

Three SNL men have competed here in the past, so it’s not as if it’s something new. After all, they’re working on three entirely different narratives. Fred Armisen is a past SNL member, and we all know how much they love to nominate those previous members even in the past years alone (there’s Tina and Amy and Jimmy (winning twice) and Kirsten and Maya and Bill)! Tracy Morgan has a comeback narrative. I mean have you seen the reception to him when he presented at the Emmys last year? They LOVE him! As for Larry David, this is his first bid at an acting Emmy and him playing Bernie Sanders will help him further. Last year’s winner Bradley Whitford is back at it again, so you can pencil a nomination for him again. Then for the last two spots, I went with two Veep men: Martin Mull who played Bob Bradley, and previous Emmy nominee Peter MacNicol who I’d say is the non-SNL actor frontrunner in here.

comedy guest actress

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Christine Baranski, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Ellen Burstyn, “Mom”
• Claire Danes, ”Master of None”
• Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, “Saturday Night Live”
• Anjelica Huston, “Transparent”
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”

Seventh nominee: Lisa Kudrow, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”

I have mixed reactions with Tina Fey and Amy Poehler competing as one especially since this is likely Amy Poehler’s first actual legit bid at an Emmy. But hey, if that’s what it’ll take for her to finally win, then let’s go for it. Joining her is Melissa McCarthy who got nominated for all the times she hosted SNL too, Christine Baranski who’s also a multi-guest nominee for this role. Then there’s Ellen Burstyn who’ll Allison Janney her way to both Guest Comedy and Drama nominations. Oscar winner Anjelica Huston had a much-buzzed stint on Transparent, so I think she’ll be in. Last spot is up for grabs, we have lots of contenders from Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, that maybe we can get in a second Guest nod for a solo Tina Fey, or the much-buzzed Lisa Kudrow, but I’ll go on a limb and say that Claire Danes gets in for Master of None. It has that Louie guest stint vibes for me, though that show is infallible as well (Sarah fuckin Baker, everyone).

comedy supp actor

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
• Adam Driver, “Girls”
• Laurence Fishburne, “black-ish”
• Tony Hale, “Veep”
• Hugh Laurie, “Veep”

Seventh nominee: Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine”

Tony Hale is a given at this point, especially after winning twice for that role already. Congratulations Ty Burrell, you’re the last man standing from Modern Family, and I think he’s here to stay for the next few years. It would be such an Emmy thing to do to finally stop nominating Adam Driver since he finally made it big as a movie star, but if he can survive last year’s almost Girls shut-out, then maybe he can still squeeze in a nod or two. Tituss Burgess also seems like a possible consecutive nod. His is a role that this category loves if we’re to base it on the history of this. Andre Braugher can easily score another nod, but I think voters are already over Brooklyn Nine Nine by now, and while it is Andre Braugher we’re talking about, there’s a lot of other veterans they can nominate here… which leads me to Laurence Fishburne in black-ish. It’s a tad surprising that even after so many years, Hale has been the only Veep supporting actor nominated but maybe winning Series last year can finally score them an additional acting nod. Since there’s no consensus on who the second actor might be (Tim Simons is probably what critics will push, but Gary Cole is the only other male nominated performance from this show), so go the easy route and predict the most prominent one in the group; thus it’s Hugh Laurie.

comedy supp actress

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
• Gaby Hoffmann, “Transparent”
• Allison Janney, “Mom”
• Jane Krakowski, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Judith Light, “Transparent”
• Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”

Seventh nominee: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”

It’s hilarious that all eight(!) women from last year are still eligible to be nominated again this year, but since I don’t think we’re going eight here again, I’d say Mayim Bialik and Niecy Nash are the first to go. Allison Janney is definitely back and in contention for a third straight win here, and so is Anna Chlumsky. Jane Krakowski is someone they love to nominate (however, winning is a different story), so I think she’ll be back as well. And it’s safe to say that they won’t be cutting Kate McKinnon in an election season of all years, so there’s four. The last two slots are between 2x previous Emmy champ Julie Bowen of Modern Family and the two Transparent ladies — last year’s nominee Gaby Hoffmann and Judith Light. All three make sense as nominees, but I feel Modern Family is going on a decline here, thus cutting Bowen off in the process.

comedy lead actor

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”
• Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”
• Gael Garcia Bernal, “Mozart in the Jungle”
• Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”
• William H. Macy, “Shameless”
• Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”

Seventh nominee: Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”

Let’s begin with those that will surely be back. Of course, there’s no better way to start this than with Jeffrey Tambor who’ll even probably win this again (and deservedly so). After his surprise nod last year, I think Anthony Anderson will be back too, as well as perennial Emmy favorite William H. Macy. Will Forte scooped three major surprise nods last year, so I feel like in a relatively empty category like this one, he has the industry support and clout to pull off another one.Now this is where it gets tricky — sure Louis C.K. and Matt Leblanc aren’t eligible this time around so it’s opening up a free slot (since there are seven nominees last year). I’m currently predicting Aziz Anzari, as mentioned above already, to have his Louis C.K. (or Lena Dunham or Will Forte or whatever) moment, but I won’t be surprised if he gets Ellie Kemeper-ed in the end, meaning lead star of the nominated show snubbed. For now, I’d keep him in. As for that last slot, we can have a Jim Parsons come back again (yes as much as we’re sick of him and his show now) and Don Cheadle has been nominated all seasons his show was eligible (and this is the final season so there’s that), but I’mma go risky and put in Golden Globe winner Gael Garcia Bernal here only because I think Amazon’s really, really aggressive campaigning will at least bear one good result for them.

comedy lead actress

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Lena Dunham, “Girls”
• Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”
• Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”
• Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”
• Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie”

Seventh nominee: Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer”

The question here basically is who are the five other women Julia Louis Dreyfus is beating for that fifth consecutive Emmy? As for starters, there’s Lily Tomlin who got in last year for Grace and Frankie without her partner Jane Fonda. Maybe both of them gets nominated this year, who knows? Then there’s Ellie Kemper who missed last year, but then again, last year is the most competitive category of the race since whenever so maybe it’s safe to say she’s in this year (or is she?) To continue my black-ish breakout year narrative, there’s also Tracee Ellis Ross who’ll be the first black woman to be nominated since Phylicia Rashad exactly 30 years ago (talk about narrative)! With a clear resurgence in quality, I think Lena Dunham will also be back after a year of absence. This can be a way to reward her and her season since Girls feels like an afterthought already. Now I’m definitely crazy for excluding Amy Schumer out. Sure, she doesn’t have a breakthrough big year like last year because not all years can be like that, but the lukewarm reception of this Inside Amy Schumer season feels like it’s ripe for a possible miss. Think of the other one time-nominated performances here (Teri Hatcher and Marcia Cross in Desperate Housewives, Zooey Deschanel in New Girl, Laura Linney in The Big C, Sarah Silverman in The Sarah Silverman Program, Lea Michele in Glee, Taylor Schilling in Orange is the New Black) — all those in really huge breakout seasons that they snubbed after. After all, I think she can get her due in the Variety Sketch category. Now this is where it gets crazier — I’m removing Amy Schumer for a CW actress. The Emmys are so allergic of CW they don’t even nominate their guest actresses (not even when they’re as legendary as Rita Moreno). But I think that sooner or later they’ll cave in. This year, they have two in contention: Globe winner this year Rachel Bloom for Crazy Ex-girlfriend and Globe winner last year Gina Rodriguez for Jane the Virgin. Now I don’t think both are getting in, and while Bloom is the more current one, I’d say the Emmys will be y’know.. like the Emmys and be a year late in acknowledging Gina Rodriguez just like when they nominated Tatiana Maslany when no one’s predicting her anymore.

comedy series

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:
• black-ish (ABC)
• Master of None (Netflix)
• Modern Family (ABC)
• Silicon Valley (HBO)
• Transparent (Amazon)
• Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
• Veep (HBO)

Eighth nominee: Mozart in the Jungle (Amazon)

As for the Series categories, we have two slots freed up this year because of Louie having no season this year and Parks and Recreation‘s departure. While people are toying around with the idea of Modern Family missing already, I’m not sure that will happen yet for this year, at least. They probably have one or two years in them before they get dropped off. Meanwhile all the other four nominees are guaranteed to be back as well – current winner Veep, Transparent, Silicon Valley, and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Considering that Netflix is really great when it comes to campaigning their own shows, I’d say Master of None gets in in a category with seven spots. And lastly, I began my mention of it and end with it too –Black-ish seems like its poised for an Emmy breakout. Not only will it be the remaining network representative (especially since Modern Family is on its way out), but it’s about family too, so expect it to be there.

Tomorrow, to complete the list, the cream of the crop among the television dramas!

Talk to me about this one on Twitter: @nikowl

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66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Comedy Lead Actress

Hi there! We now approach the last comedy acting category for this year, as we save the best ladies for last. Today, I’ll be sharing my thoughts with regards to Julia Louis Dreyfus’ Emmy. Is she really a sure thing? Can Amy Poehler follow her Globe win with an Emmy? Is Taylor Schilling the next Orange acting Emmy winner? Or will Melisa McCarthy snoop it out of nowhere like in 2011?

I guess let’s begin with 5x nominee here and still Emmy empty Amy Poehler. For this year, she submitted “Recall Vote” where in everyone was shocked to see that Leslie will lose by a landslide. This caused much stress to her and led her to get drunk with Ben instead and consider of getting a couple tattoo with him. Through the help of best friend Ann, Leslie gets up to her senses and made the most out of her remaining 30 days in position. This is a good submission by Poehler seeing the contrast of fun and wacky Leslie to the responsible and ideal one. However, the bias against Greg Daniel shows’ lead characters (filed under Carell, Steve) is always present. It also doesn’t help that Poehler had literally submitted anything during her previous four bids to no avail. I think the time has passed already to win for this role, at least.

After missing out last year, Melissa McCarthy comes back for her third nomination for Mike and Molly. Her episode “Mind Over Molly” is a classic and traditional competitive Emmy submission as it plays the laughter and the emotion when she dealt with her deceased father over therapy. While her 2011 victory can be credited to her breakout soon to be Oscar nominated role in Bridesmaids, her summer film Tammy panned out this year which doesn’t help her chances. That said, this is really a great episode and she represents the traditional comedy sitcom in this line up that it’s hard to dismiss her.

It was good that Netflix was easy to switch genres even before campaigning (though they flubbed at the Globes) since Taylor Schilling has no chance in hell to win, let alone be nominated in the drama category. In comedy, however, she is really competitive. While I was expecting her to submit the show pilot since it makes sense for her character, she went with the broader comedic episode of The Chickening. While she managed to avoid the darker material of her character, she really wasn’t able to showcase the comedic ones as well. That said, Schilling is one of last season’s breakout stars that if there’s a really sudden surge of love for the show, she’s a fitting representative to be rewarded.

Edie Falco continues her reign of nomination here after her victory in 2010 for Nurse Jackie. Not only is she reaping Emmy nods, but she’s coming back again to be nominated at the Globes and SAG as well. As for this year, she went with “Super Greens” which has Jackie mixing her personal and work life as a mother, worker, friend, and wife in it. It’s a serious episode which had Falco resort again to her meds and see her sponsor again. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s front and center in her episode, though  this is more dramatic than her winning one four years ago.

Like her on-screen partner Adam Driver, Lena Dunham had a better tape this year with “Role-play” but decided to go somewhere else and submitted “Beach House” instead. I call this the Tina Fey syndrome. in 2007, Fey had a competitive tape via The C Word but went with her written episode Up All Night. Alas, it led to America Ferrera winning the Emmy. Lena is one of the three writers of Beach House, and to her credit, it’s probably up there in the best episodes the show has produced. However, it’s too much of an ensemble work and doesn’t give her plenty of moments to shine. I guess she’s counting on the overall strength of the episode to get her high rankings from the panel, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to take home the trophy.

But then again, most of these talks are moot since it’s Julia Louis Dreyfus’ world, and we’re all just living in it (and deservedly so). For her role as Vice President Selina Meyer in Veep, not only does Julia and her team know how to play the game, they’re even running the game at this point. Her submitted episode, Crate, showed a gamut of emotions when news is delivered to Selina about her presidency dreams. This happens after she was already down and lashed out to her team for being ineffective. It also doesn’t hurt that Veep is now in an upward trajectory at the Emmys garnering a writing nomination and a fourth acting one for the acting team. Julia’s domination the past few years is on an all level high, and this will definitely be one of the easier calls of the night.

At this point, I don’t know if “people sick of Julia” is existent. I mean Helen Hunt won 4 consecutive times and Candice Bergen won five times in a seven year span. Besides, after 12 different winners for 12 different years from 2001-2012, we’re bound for some repeat wins again here….at least for this year. What’s probably the most exciting thing about this more than the race is what Julia’s speech will be like this year. I mean the expectations are high after the speech mishap in 2012 and bringing Tony Hale with her last year no?

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
Alternate: 
Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly

Full Rankings:
01. Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
02. Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly
03. Taylor Schilling, “Orange is the New Black
04. Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation
05. Lena Dunham, “Girls
06. Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 3: Comedy   Leave a comment

Hi guys! We’re now past halfway the Emmy week over at Tit for Tat, and after discussing the possible nominees and my predictions for Reality and Variety, and TV Movie and Miniseries, it’s time to continue the prognosticating before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the nominees on Thursday morning. For this part, our focus will be on the laughter source for the past TV season: COMEDY!

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Directing

• Brooklyn Nine Nine, Pilot (Phil Lord, Chris Miller)
• Girls, Two Plane Rides (Lena Duham)
• Louie, Elevator Part 6 (Louis CK)
• Modern Family, Las Vegas (Gail Mancuso)
• Orange is the New Black, Lesbian Request Denied (Jodie Foster)

Sixth nominee: Silicon Valley, Minimum Viable Product (Mike Judge)

Okay let’s begin with current champ Modern Family. This show has been dominating this category winning the past three years, and a fourpeat is indeed very possible. This Las Vegas episode is one of their more buzzed ones this season, and it’s a very obvious possibility to win as well. Then of course there’s Jodie Foster. Sure she’s no Fincher or Scorsese, but Lesbian Request Denied is a top episode for OITNB’s first season and with the deafening buzz it has, it’s likely she’ll get in here. I’m also predicting the pair of writer/creator/director Louis CK and Lena Dunham. Both have been nominated here for the past two seasons of their shows though I have to say Louis CK is probably the more assured contender here as compared to Dunham. But this semi-sort of creative resurgence for Girls can give her a nod here. As for the last spot, I’m giving it to the duo of Phil Lord and Chris Miller simply because they love pilots in here and it’s the most logical pilot in contention, and second, the duo comes from a hit summer film and a great 2014 year so far.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Writing

• Episodes, Episode 305 (David Crane, Jeffrey Clark)
• Louie, Pamela Part 3 (Louis CK, Pamela Adlon)
• Louie, So Did the Fat Lady (Louis CK)
• Orange is the New Black, I Wasn’t Ready (Pilot) (Liz Friedman, Jenji Kohan)
• Veep, The Special Relationship (Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche)

Sixth nominee: Girls, Beach House (Lena Dunham, Jenni Korner, Judd Apatow)

As much as it does not make sense, Episodes is 2/2 so far when it comes to getting a nomination, so it’s really hard to bet against it. Thus, I guess I’m going with it for my first slot here. Then the writing/directing categories is a haven of some sort for pilot episodes, and I think that will put I Wasn’t Ready in a good position for a nomination as well. Louis CK has won in this category two years ago and has three nods under her belt, so a nod is assured. So Did the Fat Lady is his best contender this year, and I won’t be surprised if it goes on and win all the way. The risk I’m doing though is to predict two Louie nominations here, though I guess I’m putting a lot of faith with the writers and they have delivered before. As for Veep, they finally did the right thing of submitting only one episode for consideration, so it’s really easy to rally up at this point, though I won’t be surprised if it misses simply because it’s not even their best episode of the season (Debate anyone?) and that this sort of “submitting only one episode” has backfired in the past (last year’s Arrested Development as for starters).

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Guest Actor

• Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live
• Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live
• James Earl Jones, “The Big Bang Theory
• Nathan Lane, “Modern Family
• Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory
• Jeremy Renner, “Louie

Seventh nominee: Andy Samberg, “Saturday Night Live

Right now, two previous winners are in the running this year: Jimmy Fallon for SNL and current champ Bob Newhart for The Big Bang Theory, and I think it will be an easy repeat of nomination for the both of them. Then there’s Louis CK coming back for a consecutive nod for SNL as well. Louis CK is one the Emmys love to nominate and he has been beating his own record the past few years already, so another nod here isn’t surprising at all. I think James Earl Jones will get nommed as well since Big Bang managed to pull of a win for an overdue veteran last year, so they know how to headline their vets to get awards traction. As for Nathan Lane, it’s really hard to argue against him especially if he managed to get in for a cameo-like performance last year. And he even had meatier role this year. The last spot I reserve for that “dramatic” performance that usually gets in every year (Eli Wallach and Bobby Cannavale for Nurse Jackie, and Idris Elba for The Big C the past four years), and this year I think Louie is the show getting that slot, and my bet is on 2x Oscar nominee Jeremy Renner. His performance is very dramatic and no comedy element to it at all, but his sheer star power can and Oscar pedigree can give him an Emmy nod as well.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Guest Actress

• Sarah Baker, “Louie
• Laverne Cox, “Orange is the New Black
• Joan Cusack, “Shameless
• Tina Fey, “Saturday Night Live
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live
• June Squibb, “Girls

Seventh nominee: Ellen Burstyn, “Louie

Despite her SNL guesting going mediocre over the years, it’s hard to bet against Melissa McCarthy getting in once again so that’s one slot. The same can be said for Tina Fey who got in the last three years she was eligible here. In a fair world, none of them are getting nominated. And with Shameless shifting to the Comedy categories , it’s easier to get confident with Joan Cusack’s chances. If she can get in every single year in a more competitive Drama, this one is an easier path to a repeat nomination. And then we have Oscar nominee June Squibb. La Squibb is in contention for three different performances in this category: Girls, Glee, and Getting On. My bet is on Girls though since it’s her baitiest one (she’s on the brink of death, voters!!!). Then as for the last two spots, I have reserved one for an Orange is the New Black. My bet is on Laverne Cox since it’s more of a statement of some sort for someone like her to get awards recognition and her episode submission is basically where her character is the focus of it. But then again, I really wouldn’t be surprised if she missed instead for co-star Uzo Aduba. Aduba has been the viewer favorite character all along, and she’s been working the circuit the past few months. And then the last slot I’m giving to a Louie lady. I went with Sarah Baker with the same reasoning of why I went with Laverne Cox: her episode is the more buzzed Louie one. But then again, she’s up against Oscar winner and Emmy semi-fave Ellen Burstyn. Last year, the Emmy went with the popular Oscar winning actress (Melissa Leo) over the online favorite (Parker Posey), and I won’t be surprised if they follow the same format this year with Burstyn getting in over Baker.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Supp Actor

• Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
• Adam Driver, “Girls
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family
• Tony Hale, “Veep
• Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family

Seventh nominee: Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family

So will Modern Family get four actors again? I won’t be quick to say that again. Last year, Stonestreet missed a year after winning, so I won’t be too easy in thinking they’d get all of them in as well. Let’s get with the easy ones: Ty Burrell is making it in. I think he’s the last standing survivor when the Emmys start to drop it. And for some reason, they have a hard on for Jesse Tyler Ferguson. He’s the only other guy aside from Burrell to get in the past four seasons, so I think he has the other advantage as well. And then of course we have current champ Tony Hale from Veep who probably has a huge chance of repeating that win. I’m also predicting Andre Braugher. I mean if he can get two nods out of Men of a Certain Age, they won’t let the opportunity of nominating him for a comedic role pass by. And of course he’s good in it. I’m going back and forth with Girls’ Adam Driver since he seems like a one time thing, and I’m expecting a decline of nods for the show in general, but between his film projects and his recent Star Wars casting, he’s slowly building the clout to have a strong résumé. The last spot I’m reserving for the two Modern Family men. Ed O’Neill can easily go on for his fourth consecutive nod here, but my hunch is that like Jane Lynch’s comeback last year, Eric Stonestreet will have his this year especially since it’s a crucial season for his character.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Supp Actress

• Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory
• Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
• Anna Chlumsky, “Veep
• Allison Janney, “Mom
• Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black
• Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family

Seventh nominee: Merrett Wever, “Nurse Jackie

Unlike the men of Modern Family, the women have an easier time getting in annually just because there are only two of them in this category. Thus, it’s easy to say that both Julia Bowen and Sofia Vergara will be back as nominees again. And the same can be said for The Big Bang Theory star Mayim Bialik who even got an individual SAG mention earlier this year which pretty much indicates that there’s a level of support for her performance. If only for the reason that she’s in Veep, and I’m sensing an upward trajectory in terms of its overhaul nod, I’m predicting Anna Chlumsky this year too. She doesn’t have a winning season or a winning tape, but I don’t see her being a one time deal here (even if she makes sense as one). And since her last nomination eight years ago, it’s nice to finally see Allison Janney back in the race, even doing some sort of the record Edie Falco had (by winning a Lead Drama and Comedy Actress Emmy) only this time, she’ll do the Supporting one for her role in Mom. This has been some sort of a banner year for Janney in TV if her double wins at the Critics Choice Awards is too looked at. And lastly, we have current champ Merritt Wever versus Kate Mulgrew. It’s quite odd that Wever isn’t a shoo-in when she beat those four ladies I’m predicting as “sure bets” in this category, but it’s the Emmys we’re talking about here, and a surprise of some sort usually happens. The reason I predicted Kate Mulgrew over here there though is that because Mulgrew is a respected veteran who hasn’t been nominated for any Emmy yet, and she seems poised as the most logical supporting actress from Orange to make some sort of impact in this race.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: 

Comedy Actor

• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies
• Louis C.K, “Louie
• Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes
• William H. Macy, “Shameless
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory
• Andy Samberg, “Brooklyn Nine Nine

Seventh nominee: Robin Williams, “The Crazy Ones

TALK. ABOUT. BARREN. Oh god this category can’t even get any more lively after Alec Baldwin’s exit last year. Well let’s begin with Jim Parsons, as surely he’s one of the two I’m 100% confident in. The other is definitely Louis CK. While his is not the type of performance they usually reward here, a nomination is another thing. So whatever happens in this category (may it be a revamp or the same old line up), those two would manage to be in the final line up. We also have Golden Globe winner Andy Samberg who benefits from a  weak line up. If we still have the Carells and the Baldwins here, I’m sure he would be struggling to get a nomination to be honest. And that’s coming from someone who LOVE him in Brooklyn Nine Nine. Just like his show, Matt LeBlanc seems to have his fans in the voting Academy that I won’t be surprised if he gets in again. I mean I had him as an alternate last year and look at what happened. You also get to predict Don Cheadle at this point even if his show stopped making sense a long time ago simply because we have to fill in the six slots here. Oh my god that was very boring to type. And in a certain surprising turn of events, Shameless suddenly decided to shift genres this time, and if there’s one benefit I see happening from that, it’s that William H. Macy can take advantage of this line up to finally get himself a Lead Acting nom. I mean if not him, who else is there? Thomas Middleditch in a show no one cared about? Jonathan Groff in a show everyone cared about… to trash? Canceled sitcom stars Robin Williams and Michael J. Fox? This is so barren that Macy can consider himself lucky. Sadly the same can’t be said about his co-star Emmy Rossum.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Actress

• Lena Dunham, “Girls
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
• Anna Faris, “Mom
• Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation
• Taylor Schilling, “Orange is the New Black

Seventh nominee: Mindy Kaling, “The Mindy Project

I mean at this point who even cares? Let’s just send the Emmy to Julia Louis Dreyfus’ home and we’ll be done with this. Or not. Maybe because she’ll give an extremely awesome speech the way she did the last two years. But yes, Julia’s winning this easily so let’s just see the five other clappers in this category. First we have Edie Falco. Nurse Jackie‘s sort of semi-comeback among awards show contenders means only two things: 1. the show is having some creative resurgence or 2. the field is so empty. I guess I’ll leave the answer to you then. Then we have Lena Dunham in possibly the best season she had as an actress of the show. I think that if the field continues to be this weak here, Dunham can manage to survive one to two more Best Actress nods under her belt regardless of the show’s reception. And then there’s forever the bridesmaid Amy Poehler. At this point, Poehler had done everything to win the Emmy, but voters aren’t really responding to these type of Michael Schur characters (I mean hello Steve fucking Carell). In the past, she already submitted a two parter, achieved a nod when her show is a Series nominee, got Writing and Acting nod the same year and yet none of those still worked. So I guess a nomination would suffice again this year. Then this year’s newbie is filled by Taylor Schilling as the core character from the huge ensemble of Orange is the New Black. That last spot I can see can go to Mindy Kaling (who’s a past nominee for Writing) and her announcing the Emmy nods might be an obvious indicator of that, but I guess I wouldn’t just underestimate Chuck Lorre at this point so I’m going with Mom‘s Anna Faris for the last slot.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Series

• The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
• Brooklyn Nine Nine (NBC)
• Louie (FX)
• Modern Family (ABC)
• Orange is the New Black (Netflix)
• Veep (HBO)

Seventh nominee: Girls (HBO)

And we’re here at the final stretch. Okay let’s get the obvious ones out of the way. Modern Family is soooo getting in so there’s Slot 1. Veep is easily making it for Round 3 so there’s Slot 2. Orange is the new Black is too big to ignore that if there’s only one room for a newbie here, that would be it. So there goes Slot 3. Louie’s msot recent season has been more dramatic than comedic, but it has the critics rallying up behind it that it’s gonna be surprising if it suddenly missed after finally penetrating last year’s line up. And then there’s the fourth slot. The Big Bang Theory hasn’t achieved the same critical and commercial buzz it had last year (and yet it was used to no avail since they did not win Series), so even if their chances somehow weakened, a series nod is still manageable. Now there’s five slots already.  As for that sixth slot, it starts to get tricky. On one hand, there’s Brooklyn Nine Nine a.k.a Fox’s only contender in this category. On its side, it’s a freshman show who has some sort of buzz, it’s Fox’s #1 priority here, and it’s a traditional comedy from a broadcast network. However, it’s ratings aren’t something to write home about, it doesn’t have a Tina Fey or an Alec Baldwin in its side, and that Orange is the more buzzed freshman show. Then on the other, there’s Girls. On its hit stride, voters can easily just vote the recurring nominees from last year’s batch and it can easily make it, it’s still getting awards and mentions, and its third season has been some sort of a creative resurgence from critics and fans alike. But then again, it’s not HBO’s priority, and all its buzz has dwindled so fast it’s not even the watercooler show of the season nor of this line up. Of course with the new 2% rule, there’s a possibility that we might get seven nominees in the end, but let’s stick to the current six line up. Now who do I think gets in that coveted last slot. I guess I’m going with Brooklyn Nine Nine by a hair over Girls. I think there’s more buzz for the former and traditional comedy shows still has their hold in this category despite the slow HBO dominance the past few years. Plus, the shelf life for female-led/centric shows are just two seasons and they easily drop them off. Sure Sex and the City is an exception, but Ally McBeal and Glee were lucky enough to get two nods while the likes of Desperate Housewives and ugly Betty have to settle for their only pilot season series nods. So yeah, i’m going with Brooklyn in this one.

Now there you have it. Do you think Allison Janney is finally making that Emmy comeback? Will Shameless shamelessly moving to the comedy category finally catch another acting nod aside from Joan Cusack? And how many Modern Family actors can survive this season? Tomorrow, the last part as we tackle the drama categories! Thanks for reading!

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

actress comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Marcia Cross, “Desperate Housewives[WRONG]
2006:
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback[WRONG]
2007:
America Ferrera, “Ugly Betty[CORRECT]
2008:
Tina Fey, “30 Rock[CORRECT]
2009:
Toni Collette, “United States of Tara[CORRECT]
2010:
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie[CORRECT]
2011:
Laura Linney, “The Big C[WRONG]
2012:
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep” [CORRECT]

Down to the last six categories for this year’s Emmys. Let’s go to the lead acting categories for this year’s Emmy awards. And we will begin with the funny ladies of comedy. For this year, shocking snubs went to 2011 winner Melissa McCarthy for her show Mike and Molly. Equally shocking snub goes to Zooey Deschanel of New Girl who was expected to reap up an easy follow up nom for the show’s second season. As for those who ended up with nomination, here are the six ladies in contention.

Since her win in 2010, Edie Falco has consistently received nominations throughout the four year eligibility of her show. However, with her intense competition this year, I don’t think submitting Luck of the Drawing will do her any favors. But then again, who cares? I think even she is not expecting an Emmy this year, though I’m fascinated that she still keeps getting nomination here and from the SAG Awards.

Despite the show’s cancellation, it’s really nice to see that Laura Dern managed to squeak in a nod for her work in Enlightened. Sadly for her, no one has won for a canceled season of any show in a long time in this category. That includes the one in 2006 where 4/5 of the shows won’t be coming back for the new TV season, the lone one whose show is still on won it in the end.  With that said, if you see the trends here, seven of the last eight winners won on their pilot seasons of their show. Dern is the only newbie here, so that might work. She submitted All I Ever Wanted which is an amazing tape on its own. But then again, it’s dramatic that it begs the question if they reward dramatic performances in comedy shows or comedic performances only?

For the second year, Lena Dunham picks herself an acting nomination for Girls. If last year, she submitted a lukewarm episode with the season finale, this year she did a good job of highlighting a good one by submitting Bad Friend where she got high with her close gay friend. This ended up with a confrontation with another friend and lots of cray cray stuff in between. With that said, I don’t think the nature of her character is one that you’d easily root for, and that’s one of the current trends we’ve seen in this category.  But still. I’d give her props for submitting her best acted episode.

Then you also have Amy Poehler in contention. This year, she puts her best foot forward in terms of submission by going with a two parter, which was quite a controversial choice. The combo of Emergency Response and Ben and Leslie puts her in a lot of screentime advantage as these are two separate episodes. It also puts Leslie in a different light as she focuses another side of her with these episodes. However, her character is from a Greg Daniels show and the last time that the Emmys continually nominated one resulted to no wins (that’s Steve Carell in The Office).  part of me thinks that Poehler’s Leslie will follow the same fate, especially since she’s still unrewarded and she’s on the fifth season of the show already.

Speaking of hour long submissions, Amy’s gal pal and best friend Tina Fey also submitted a longer episode by going with the series finale. Submitting series finale has worked for the then still unrewarded Sarah Jessica Parker in 2004 but not for the then already rewarded Patricia Heaton in 2005 and Debra Messing in 2006. Given how stiff the competition this year, I think Tina will be joining the latter instead of the former. After all, she has another shot at Comedy Writing which I’m currently predicting for her to win.

Lastly, current winner Julia Louis Dreyfus attempts to be the first back to back winner in this category since Patricia Heaton’s feat in 200 and 2001 for Eeverybody Loves Raymond. Submitting Running is actually an inspired choice since it shows her physical comedy plus an emotional end of the episode. Her glass door scene is probably the most memorable scene of all nominees combined, and it might be enough to pull off the win.

After some thinking, I think that this race is closer among those who have better odds of winning. I don’t see Lena or Edie winning it this year. BFFs Tina and Amy have better odds with their hour long episodes, and I won’t be surprised if one of them wins. However, I’m hesitant with Amy especially if she can’t win with weaker competitions in the past when she’s a frontrunner. Like what I said, Tina can easily be the swansong win of the show, but her chances in Writing are far better, That leaves me with the two HBO girls battling it out. If voters are looking to spread the wealth, then I can see Laura Dern getting a farewell Emmy win for this. But as for my actual prediction, I’d say JLD goes for second time at the podium finally giving her a multiple win for a TV performance. Veep made a good showing at the nominations this year, and this is still the best place to reward it.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
Runner-Up: Laura Dern, “Enlightened

Full Rankings:
1. Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
2. Laura Dern, “Enlightened
3. Tina Fey, “30 Rock
4. Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”
5. Lena Dunham, “Girls
6. Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie

My predictions in the other Emmy acting categories are available here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Zooey Deschanel, “New Girl” (Bad in Bed)
• Lena Dunham, “Girls” (She Did)
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie” (Disneyland Sucks)
• Tina Fey, “30 Rock” (The Tuxedo Begins)
• Julia Louis Dreyfus “Veep” (Tears)
• Melissa McCarthy, “Mike and Molly” (The Dress)
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation” (Win, Lose, or Draw)

It girl Zooey Deschanel gets a nod for playing the title character in FOX’s hit comedy New Girl. In her episode, she tries to learn how to properly seduce the character of Justin Long so she asks the help of the guys, watches porn for practice, and buys kinky S&M outfit. While she was funny on her scenes, her episode also contains an equally hilarious storyline with Schmidt wanting to impress his pregnant boss when and pushed her in the pool. Deschanel can also be lost in the middle of all these performances, but I’d give her props for mixing physical comedy with her usual funny line deliveries.

Lena Dunham is the Emmys’ it girl this year garnering nods for writing, directing, acting, and producing the HBO comedy “Girls”. Sadly, her episode, which is the season finale, didn’t highlight her that much and did not introduce her character well to voters. I actually like her last few scenes from the train to the beach, but I don’t think it will stand out amidst the group of actual hilarious performances by the other nominees. If anything, she’ll get her consolation in the Writing category where she’s the actual frontrunner.

Up until now, Edie Falco still holds the record for the only actress who has wins for Best Actress both in the Drama and Comedy genres. her Comedy win is for the show where in she’s nominated again this year, Nurse Jackie. In her submitted episode, Falco goes to rehab which she dubbed as “Disneyland” and gets a visit from her daughter wherein she pretended that she was working there. This is a very good submission from Falco showing her great acting chops. Is Falco good? Definitely. Is it comedic enough? Nope. And that’s the reason on what will hinder her from the win.

After her first year submission blunder, Tina Fey has been a very good submitter when it comes to the Emmys, that’s why one cannot eliminate and dimish her chances when analyzing and viewing the tapes. The same can be said this year where in Liz Lemon and Jack Donaghy portrayed a Batman like stunt to save New York. Fey, complete with hilarious make up and playing various characters, is definitely on the top of her game with this episode and could have been an easy winner any other year. However, like what I mentioned earlier, while Fey is a consistent good submitter, she hasn’t received a second win in this category, and I don’t think this will change this year. There’s no denying though that this is her best submission since Reunion three years ago.

Julia Louis Dreyfus is one of the actresses that Emmy really loves. How she propelled a victory in 2006 is a big testament to that. Since then, she has been a perennial nominee and has received Emmys for both of her last two shows where in she’s a regular. This year, the same pattern happens when she’s nominated for her performance as Vice President Selena Meyer. In her submitted episode, she played the underdog with matching tears after receiving disappointment numbers from the people. Julia’s capability to shift from an underdog lady who misses her daughter to a foul mouthed official when she’s ranting to her staff will definitely stay with the voters. It also helps that the show is received enough even bagging a surprise Comedy Series nomination.

Melissa McCarthy‘s surprise win last year was mainly caused of Bridesmaids, but she has established so much this year that she can make her performance remain on the voters’ radar for the consecutive this year. I’m surprised how strong her tape is, as it dealt  with typical Emmy bait when she tries so hard to lose weight to fit in her wedding dress. I think this will work well with voters, and like the case of Jon Cryer, the disdain over her show and surprise Emmy win is what makes others dismiss her Emmy chances. I think that she’s in this race, and while I don’t think she’ll be the one to break the no wins here in this category, among the three past winners, she has what it takes to do so.

Amy Poehler should have an Emmy already in her mantle, and it’s a surprise that she still hasn’t received any after being nominated the last five years (combination of SNL and Parks and Recreation). This year, she submitted the season finale in which it was finally revealed what’s there for Leslie’s political ambitions. I see Poehler’s fate the same as Louis CK’s that if we based it on season long submission, she has a stronger chance, but she submitted an episode that works more on the heart rather than the laughs. Not that it’s a bad thing, and I think it’s a really good submission for Poehler; however, Greg Daniels characters haven’t had any luck in terms of any Emmy recognition, and I sadly don’t see any Emmy for Amy’s way. I’d be totally glad if she pulls it off though.

This is really difficult to predict especially the blunder re:tape of Zooey Deschanel, so every ranking really matters. For all we know, those who got the most number one votes also got the last place ones and someone who’s simply in the middle of the pack wins. For now, I’m going with Julia Louis Dreyfus who combines Emmy predigree, good tape, and right buzz for the win.

Prediction: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
Dark Horse: Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”

Complete Rankings:
1. Louis Dreyfus
2. Poehler
3. McCarthy
4. Deschanel
5. Dunham
6. Fey
7. Falco