Archive for the ‘louis ck’ Tag
Prediction: Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”
Alternate: Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”
01. Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”
02. Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”
03. William H. Macy, “Shameless”
04. Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
05. Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish”
06. Louis C.K., “Louie”
07. Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”
Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.
For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
Let’s complete the guest acting categories for this year by discussing the Guest Actor Comedy Series Emmy. All the six men nominated this year are no strangers to the Emmys considering they have collectively combined dozens and dozens of nominations under their belt. But with no clear frontrunner such as Bob Newhart or Jimmy Fallon this year, the race really seems up in the air.
Previously nominated thrice already in this category, still Emmyless actor Jon Hamm gets his first nod outside of his work in 30 Rock. However, it’s for another Tina Fey produced show — the Comedy Series nominee Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. In the season finale entitled “Kimmy Makes Waffles”, a tape was revealed where Reverand Richard Wayne Gary Wayne was seen doing some different activities disproving his earlier claims. This ends with a court room scene where he was pleaded as guilty. It’s a very competitive tape, though one can argue that his best scenes are in the beginning and his court scenes pale in comparison to that.
It’s one of those easier name checking instances, as veteran Mel Brooks gets in for the one-season canceled show The Comedians. In his episode “Celebrity Guest”. Billy Crystal attempts to invite Mel as a celebrity guest. It’s a pretty short appearance considering there were many storylines in that episode, and his wasn’t even the main one. I doubt he’ll be winning for this one, though one should never underestimate name checking.
Paul Giamatti targets Emmy win number 2, this time for his performance as Juror #10 in Inside Amy Schumer‘s “12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer” episode. Considered as one of the top comedic episodes of the past seasons, I can see a scenario where voters will go for it because of their love for the episode, regardless of Paul Giamatti’s performance in it. That said, his turn here is quite exquisite. Sure, John Hawkes upstaged him, but Giamatti stayed with his character that even in the most hilarious lines, you’d see him with a straight face. Hawkes’ snub clearly helps Paul though as now he’s the only chance to reward someone for this episode.
On the outside, physical transformation is what sets Bradley Whitford apart from his co-nominees for his turn as Marcy May in Transparent. Donning a blonde wig, the closet transvestite spends a day with confidante Maura in his submitted episode “Best New Girl.” It’s a pretty subtle performance, if ever there’s one in this lineup and can garner some votes in his way. However, it lacks the scenery chewing scene this category loves. Let’s see how it fares up with the rest of the pack, though he’s definitely in contention.
In four of the last six years, ever since Saturday Night Live hosts were submitted here, the guest actor category has been a place to reward the acting in the said sketch series. However, two of those are for Justin Timberlake hosted episodes while the other two are for Jimmy Fallon’s. This year, neither are nominated but we have two who have gained multiple nominations already. First up is Louis C.K. earning his third consecutive nomination as an SNL host. In the 40th season finale, his submitted episode, he kicked it off with a seven-minute monologue which is equally hilarious as it is controversial. That said, this is weaker than his previous stints, so if he can’t win during those times, maybe this one won’t be it as well.
Lastly, there’s SNL alum Bill Hader who was previously nominated in the Supporting Actor category. In his first bid as a guest host, Hader revisited all his prominent previous iconic SNL turns especially Stefon. While this is no slam dunk, this benefits him (as compared back in Supporting) because he appears in most of the sketches. He’s also helped by another Emmy favorite Kristen Wiig). Hader has since accumulated greater goodwill since the last time he was nominated appearing in critically lauded films such as The Skeleton Twins and in the great summer blockbuster Trainwreck. In a field as open as this one, a Hader victory situation isn’t far-fetched; thus I’m predicting him for the win.
Prediction: Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”
Alternate: Bradley Whitford, “Transparent”
01. Bill Hader, “Saturday Night Live”
02. Bradley Whitford, “Transparent”
03. Paul Giamatti, “Inside Amy Schumer
04. Jon Hamm, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
05. Mel Brooks “The Comedians”
06. Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live”
You can check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.
For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
And we’re off to the last week of our Emmy analysis coverage here at Tit for Tat. With only six remaining categories left, let’s begin analyzing the lead acting races this week and start with the comedic actors to figure out if Jim Parsons can tie that record of most number of wins in this category, or if Louis C.K can add an acting Emmy to his mantle, if Shameless‘ switch to comedy genre is fruitful, and if Matt LeBlanc be the third Friend to be an Emmy winner.
Now on his third consecutive nomination, Don Cheadle still is aiming for his first career Emmy win. This year, for House of Lies, he opted with the season opener entitled “Wreckage“, his character dealt with his company decision and his confusing romance with co-worker Jeannie. There’s a scene in the middle of the episode where he talks directly to the audience while everything else is frozen. They also touched some relationship issues between him and his son. personally speaking, I’ve don’t dig House of Lies‘ humor, but I don’t think even that will affect when I say I don’t think Cheadle is winning.
After four seasons, 2x Emmy winner William H. Macy manages to get his first ever acting nomination for Shameless, thanks to their shift from the drama to the comedy category. However, it could not have come to a more awkward season since this was the show’s most dramatic season by far. In his submission “Lazarus“, Frank adjusts from the aftermath of his liver transplant surgery. While both his daughter and his new wife battle over custody, his son takes him out to Chicago where he gave him a bottle of whiskey after learning he can’t drink anymore. This is the most dramatic episode of the bunch and a stand out literally among all these comedic fares. He also has a monologue at the end, though prior to that, there’s nothing much worthy to see in his hour-long episode.
For his fourth nod in a row, Louis C.K has submitted “Model” which is a different approach from his usual submissions. This is arguably his funniest submission by far. The first half of the episode had him doing a flop opening for Jerry Seinfeld in a charity event. While his jokes aren’t really funny, it provides the opposite effect to the viewers who find the unfortunate moment hilarious. The latter part of the episode is the more humorous one when he leaves with a model and they had the unfortunate sex incident of him accidentally punching her. While this is a competitive submission from Louis C.K, there is still an existing bias regarding the type of this comedy in this category as proven by the no Emmy acting wins for Jerry Seinfeld and Larry David, and I don’t think this will change any time soon.
Since that upset win he did in 2007, Ricky Gervais is back to provide he’s no fluke, as he’s now nominated for the Netflix show Derek. He submitted the second season finale where in he tries to learn how to ride a bicycle, goes on a date, and deals with his father’s condition. In it, Gervais displays the perfect Emmy winning recipe of having range, impact, laughs, screentime, and empathy. The only con I can see his way is that if voters aren’t really digging his character or if they find the acting really off in it. That said, there’s a real possibility that he’d go 2/2 in this category this year.
At this point, 3x Emmy champ Jim Parsons probably knows that his ticket to an Emmy is by Sheldon getting drunk as proven by his two Emmy winning Emmy submissions. Does it really come in threes? Well in his episode “The Relationship Diremption“, Sheldon deals with some sort of a life crisis and attempts to change some perspectives in it unintentionally including getting drunk with Penny. We then see the after effects of such with all the crazy things he has done the night before. This follows the same prototype of his winning submissions, so it isn’t much of a stretch to say that he can be rewarded again for it.
And lastly we have Matt Leblanc in his third nomination for Episodes. In Episode 306, we witness Matt (playing himself the actor) ranting about the British invasion in Hollywood after losing a coveted role to one. This follows to him seeing a young hot girl on set and had a sexual intercourse with her only to find out who that girl was. The bit about the British invasion hits too close to home that I can see it garnering him some votes. It also helps him that there’s a Friends reference in the middle of the episode where he mentions his famous catchphrase “How you doin?” Leblanc has been nominated six times in this category now (three each for Friends and Episodes) and if voters are in a rewarding mood, then he might just luck this year.
I’ve always had a spotty record here the past few years. The one time that I predicted Jim Parsons was the year he lost to Jon Cryer. The three times that he did though, I predicted Larry David, Steve Carell, and Alec Baldwin respectively. So I highly advise you do the opposite this time around. But then again, we’re talking about a historic tying an Emmy record fourth win here, and with Big Bang Theory still having three seasons left of it, are they really rushing to give Parsons a fourth one? I’m inclined to think no; thus, I’m going with Ricky Gervais. He managed to pull off the upset in 2007, I’d say with his tape this year, he can achieve the same feat. If not him, then this somewhat weak of a category can be ripe for a Matt LeBlanc overdue upset.
Prediction: Ricky Gervais, “Derek“
Alternate: Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes“
01. Ricky Gervais, “Derek“
02. Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes“
03. Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
04. Louis C.K, “Louie”
05. William H. Macy, “Shameless”
06. Don Cheadle, “House of Lies“
Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.
For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
You’re still reading Tit for Tat’s coverage of the 66th Primetime Emmy Awards, and to day we will be completing the quartet of the guest acting categories by tackling Guest Actor in a Comedy Series. This line up contains two past winners, two previous nominees, and two first time nominated performances. Let’s get the ball rollin!
Becoming the third actor from now president Selina Meyer’s entourage to get a nomination, Gary Cole nets himself a first career Emmy nod for his role as Kent Davison on this HBO comedy. In his episode submission Crate, he has the task of delivering the news to Selina that the president is stepping down and she’s taking her place. Cole wasn’t required anything much to do, but he fits well as a team player of this ensemble, and if goodwill is on this character actor’s side, he might have a shot at the trophy.
The first Saturday Night Live host in this category is Louis C.K. who nets his second nod for his second hosting in the show. While it is arguable which between his two hosting episodes is the stronger one, he appeared in many sketches for this one. In his opening wrap, he had this debate of women being better than men and his usual comedic schtick, then he was in the black Jeopardy act as well. and some throwing of the cake in the “wife meets the boss” one. What’s common about his sketches though are that he isn’t the lead in most of them and he’s usually the supporting reaction in most of them which I think hurts his case.
It’s a bit surprising that if you look at it up, Nathan Lane now has the same number of nominations for Modern Family as regulars Eric Stonestreet and Ed O’Neill. But yes, that’s true. For his third bid for the Emmy for this show, he still plays the over the top always in control Pepper Saltzman who’s in-charge of dealing the mishaps in Mitchell and Cam’s wedding. I’m surprised that Lane decided to submit only the part 2 of the season finale as he’s allowed to submit the first part as well. Sure it was Elizabeth Banks who was the scene stealer in that one, but it’s not as if they’re competing in the same category. I think it’s a loss on his part to do submit only the second part and diminishes his chances for the win.
Steve Buscemi‘s nomination here for Portlandia (and the one for Fred Armisen as well) is surprising considering that they usually resort to SNL hosts when recognizing “sketch shows” here. But upon watching his tape Celery, where Buscemi plays the desperate salesman who can’t keep up with his co-salesmen on making the celery a popular crop, I think he’s the dark horse in this category. We don’t know yet how the panel will respond to this tape and show in general, but I think there’s a possibility (albeit small) that he can Kathy Bates his way to a guest acting win too. I don’t think I’ll be predicting him, but I’m just throwing the possibility out there.
After his win in 2012, Jimmy Fallon is back to having another shot for a double win here as he hosts the Christmas episode of SNL. It is the same winning tape he had two years ago, and I think he is present in all skits here that I think he’s definitely the frontrunner (or co-frontrunner for that matter). Fallon showcased the same winning formula he had when he last hosted, and if anything, the only con he’ll have if we assess his tape is that not-submitted Justin Timberlake is in it as much as him, if not even more, since JT is the musical guest here. If that’s not a problem to the panel, then I can see giving him another Emmy for such.
Or they might just give it to current champ Bob Newhart for his Big Bang Theory performance as Professor Proton. Sure Newhart doesn’t have the “overdue” narrative on his side after finally winning his first Emmy last year for the same performance, but who says Emmy doesn’t need to catch up on him? After all, in his tape The Proton Trasmogrification, Sheldon deals with the loss of Professor Proton so that’s points for empathy as well. And the thing is, it’s not even a dramatic performance at all since Newhart gets to play dress up playing the soul of Arthur while wearing a Star Wars costume, swords and all, in it. The reason why I refer to Fallon as a co-frontrunner because I think Newhart is in the race the same way he is which leads me to…
…predicting that it will be a battle of the repeat champs. 2012 winner Jimmy Fallon vs 2013 winner Bob Newhart. Fallon has the longer screentime on his side and the lots of sketches in it and you can add the fact that he’s one of TV’s it guys of the moment with his nightly show nominated as well (and likely to win that one as well). Then again you have Bob Newhart who is the last tape voters will see in this reel, playing a character who died in his tape and mixes comedy and drama effectively. And as if I have to bring it still (well I guess I do), but TV legend Bob Newhart who only has one Emmy under his name. If the reception to last year’s ceremony when he appeared is telling, then I’d give the tiny edge over to him. But really, both of them make sense.
Prediction: Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory“
Alternate: Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live“
01. Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory“
02. Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live“
03. Steve Buscemi, “Portlandia“
04. Nathan Lane, “Modern Family“
05. Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live“
06. Gary Cole, “Veep“
Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.
That’s it! I will be pausing my Emmy analysis for a week to make way for my Cinemalaya coverage, so the next batch of predictions (supporting acting categories) will resume on August 11. 🙂
For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
Hi guys! We’re now past halfway the Emmy week over at Tit for Tat, and after discussing the possible nominees and my predictions for Reality and Variety, and TV Movie and Miniseries, it’s time to continue the prognosticating before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the nominees on Thursday morning. For this part, our focus will be on the laughter source for the past TV season: COMEDY!
OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Brooklyn Nine Nine, Pilot (Phil Lord, Chris Miller)
• Girls, Two Plane Rides (Lena Duham)
• Louie, Elevator Part 6 (Louis CK)
• Modern Family, Las Vegas (Gail Mancuso)
• Orange is the New Black, Lesbian Request Denied (Jodie Foster)
Sixth nominee: Silicon Valley, Minimum Viable Product (Mike Judge)
Okay let’s begin with current champ Modern Family. This show has been dominating this category winning the past three years, and a fourpeat is indeed very possible. This Las Vegas episode is one of their more buzzed ones this season, and it’s a very obvious possibility to win as well. Then of course there’s Jodie Foster. Sure she’s no Fincher or Scorsese, but Lesbian Request Denied is a top episode for OITNB’s first season and with the deafening buzz it has, it’s likely she’ll get in here. I’m also predicting the pair of writer/creator/director Louis CK and Lena Dunham. Both have been nominated here for the past two seasons of their shows though I have to say Louis CK is probably the more assured contender here as compared to Dunham. But this semi-sort of creative resurgence for Girls can give her a nod here. As for the last spot, I’m giving it to the duo of Phil Lord and Chris Miller simply because they love pilots in here and it’s the most logical pilot in contention, and second, the duo comes from a hit summer film and a great 2014 year so far.
OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Episodes, Episode 305 (David Crane, Jeffrey Clark)
• Louie, Pamela Part 3 (Louis CK, Pamela Adlon)
• Louie, So Did the Fat Lady (Louis CK)
• Orange is the New Black, I Wasn’t Ready (Pilot) (Liz Friedman, Jenji Kohan)
• Veep, The Special Relationship (Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche)
Sixth nominee: Girls, Beach House (Lena Dunham, Jenni Korner, Judd Apatow)
As much as it does not make sense, Episodes is 2/2 so far when it comes to getting a nomination, so it’s really hard to bet against it. Thus, I guess I’m going with it for my first slot here. Then the writing/directing categories is a haven of some sort for pilot episodes, and I think that will put I Wasn’t Ready in a good position for a nomination as well. Louis CK has won in this category two years ago and has three nods under her belt, so a nod is assured. So Did the Fat Lady is his best contender this year, and I won’t be surprised if it goes on and win all the way. The risk I’m doing though is to predict two Louie nominations here, though I guess I’m putting a lot of faith with the writers and they have delivered before. As for Veep, they finally did the right thing of submitting only one episode for consideration, so it’s really easy to rally up at this point, though I won’t be surprised if it misses simply because it’s not even their best episode of the season (Debate anyone?) and that this sort of “submitting only one episode” has backfired in the past (last year’s Arrested Development as for starters).
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live”
• Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live“
• James Earl Jones, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Nathan Lane, “Modern Family”
• Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Jeremy Renner, “Louie”
Seventh nominee: Andy Samberg, “Saturday Night Live”
Right now, two previous winners are in the running this year: Jimmy Fallon for SNL and current champ Bob Newhart for The Big Bang Theory, and I think it will be an easy repeat of nomination for the both of them. Then there’s Louis CK coming back for a consecutive nod for SNL as well. Louis CK is one the Emmys love to nominate and he has been beating his own record the past few years already, so another nod here isn’t surprising at all. I think James Earl Jones will get nommed as well since Big Bang managed to pull of a win for an overdue veteran last year, so they know how to headline their vets to get awards traction. As for Nathan Lane, it’s really hard to argue against him especially if he managed to get in for a cameo-like performance last year. And he even had meatier role this year. The last spot I reserve for that “dramatic” performance that usually gets in every year (Eli Wallach and Bobby Cannavale for Nurse Jackie, and Idris Elba for The Big C the past four years), and this year I think Louie is the show getting that slot, and my bet is on 2x Oscar nominee Jeremy Renner. His performance is very dramatic and no comedy element to it at all, but his sheer star power can and Oscar pedigree can give him an Emmy nod as well.
OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Sarah Baker, “Louie”
• Laverne Cox, “Orange is the New Black“
• Joan Cusack, “Shameless”
• Tina Fey, “Saturday Night Live”
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live”
• June Squibb, “Girls”
Seventh nominee: Ellen Burstyn, “Louie”
Despite her SNL guesting going mediocre over the years, it’s hard to bet against Melissa McCarthy getting in once again so that’s one slot. The same can be said for Tina Fey who got in the last three years she was eligible here. In a fair world, none of them are getting nominated. And with Shameless shifting to the Comedy categories , it’s easier to get confident with Joan Cusack’s chances. If she can get in every single year in a more competitive Drama, this one is an easier path to a repeat nomination. And then we have Oscar nominee June Squibb. La Squibb is in contention for three different performances in this category: Girls, Glee, and Getting On. My bet is on Girls though since it’s her baitiest one (she’s on the brink of death, voters!!!). Then as for the last two spots, I have reserved one for an Orange is the New Black. My bet is on Laverne Cox since it’s more of a statement of some sort for someone like her to get awards recognition and her episode submission is basically where her character is the focus of it. But then again, I really wouldn’t be surprised if she missed instead for co-star Uzo Aduba. Aduba has been the viewer favorite character all along, and she’s been working the circuit the past few months. And then the last slot I’m giving to a Louie lady. I went with Sarah Baker with the same reasoning of why I went with Laverne Cox: her episode is the more buzzed Louie one. But then again, she’s up against Oscar winner and Emmy semi-fave Ellen Burstyn. Last year, the Emmy went with the popular Oscar winning actress (Melissa Leo) over the online favorite (Parker Posey), and I won’t be surprised if they follow the same format this year with Burstyn getting in over Baker.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine”
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
• Adam Driver, “Girls”
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”
• Tony Hale, “Veep”
• Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family”
Seventh nominee: Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family”
So will Modern Family get four actors again? I won’t be quick to say that again. Last year, Stonestreet missed a year after winning, so I won’t be too easy in thinking they’d get all of them in as well. Let’s get with the easy ones: Ty Burrell is making it in. I think he’s the last standing survivor when the Emmys start to drop it. And for some reason, they have a hard on for Jesse Tyler Ferguson. He’s the only other guy aside from Burrell to get in the past four seasons, so I think he has the other advantage as well. And then of course we have current champ Tony Hale from Veep who probably has a huge chance of repeating that win. I’m also predicting Andre Braugher. I mean if he can get two nods out of Men of a Certain Age, they won’t let the opportunity of nominating him for a comedic role pass by. And of course he’s good in it. I’m going back and forth with Girls’ Adam Driver since he seems like a one time thing, and I’m expecting a decline of nods for the show in general, but between his film projects and his recent Star Wars casting, he’s slowly building the clout to have a strong résumé. The last spot I’m reserving for the two Modern Family men. Ed O’Neill can easily go on for his fourth consecutive nod here, but my hunch is that like Jane Lynch’s comeback last year, Eric Stonestreet will have his this year especially since it’s a crucial season for his character.
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Julie Bowen, “Modern Family”
• Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
• Allison Janney, “Mom”
• Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black”
• Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family”
Seventh nominee: Merrett Wever, “Nurse Jackie”
Unlike the men of Modern Family, the women have an easier time getting in annually just because there are only two of them in this category. Thus, it’s easy to say that both Julia Bowen and Sofia Vergara will be back as nominees again. And the same can be said for The Big Bang Theory star Mayim Bialik who even got an individual SAG mention earlier this year which pretty much indicates that there’s a level of support for her performance. If only for the reason that she’s in Veep, and I’m sensing an upward trajectory in terms of its overhaul nod, I’m predicting Anna Chlumsky this year too. She doesn’t have a winning season or a winning tape, but I don’t see her being a one time deal here (even if she makes sense as one). And since her last nomination eight years ago, it’s nice to finally see Allison Janney back in the race, even doing some sort of the record Edie Falco had (by winning a Lead Drama and Comedy Actress Emmy) only this time, she’ll do the Supporting one for her role in Mom. This has been some sort of a banner year for Janney in TV if her double wins at the Critics Choice Awards is too looked at. And lastly, we have current champ Merritt Wever versus Kate Mulgrew. It’s quite odd that Wever isn’t a shoo-in when she beat those four ladies I’m predicting as “sure bets” in this category, but it’s the Emmys we’re talking about here, and a surprise of some sort usually happens. The reason I predicted Kate Mulgrew over here there though is that because Mulgrew is a respected veteran who hasn’t been nominated for any Emmy yet, and she seems poised as the most logical supporting actress from Orange to make some sort of impact in this race.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”
• Louis C.K, “Louie”
• Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
• William H. Macy, “Shameless”
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
• Andy Samberg, “Brooklyn Nine Nine”
Seventh nominee: Robin Williams, “The Crazy Ones”
TALK. ABOUT. BARREN. Oh god this category can’t even get any more lively after Alec Baldwin’s exit last year. Well let’s begin with Jim Parsons, as surely he’s one of the two I’m 100% confident in. The other is definitely Louis CK. While his is not the type of performance they usually reward here, a nomination is another thing. So whatever happens in this category (may it be a revamp or the same old line up), those two would manage to be in the final line up. We also have Golden Globe winner Andy Samberg who benefits from a weak line up. If we still have the Carells and the Baldwins here, I’m sure he would be struggling to get a nomination to be honest. And that’s coming from someone who LOVE him in Brooklyn Nine Nine. Just like his show, Matt LeBlanc seems to have his fans in the voting Academy that I won’t be surprised if he gets in again. I mean I had him as an alternate last year and look at what happened. You also get to predict Don Cheadle at this point even if his show stopped making sense a long time ago simply because we have to fill in the six slots here. Oh my god that was very boring to type. And in a certain surprising turn of events, Shameless suddenly decided to shift genres this time, and if there’s one benefit I see happening from that, it’s that William H. Macy can take advantage of this line up to finally get himself a Lead Acting nom. I mean if not him, who else is there? Thomas Middleditch in a show no one cared about? Jonathan Groff in a show everyone cared about… to trash? Canceled sitcom stars Robin Williams and Michael J. Fox? This is so barren that Macy can consider himself lucky.
Sadly the same can’t be said about his co-star Emmy Rossum.
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
• Lena Dunham, “Girls”
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie”
• Anna Faris, “Mom”
• Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation”
• Taylor Schilling, “Orange is the New Black”
Seventh nominee: Mindy Kaling, “The Mindy Project”
I mean at this point who even cares? Let’s just send the Emmy to Julia Louis Dreyfus’ home and we’ll be done with this. Or not. Maybe because she’ll give an extremely awesome speech the way she did the last two years. But yes, Julia’s winning this easily so let’s just see the five other clappers in this category. First we have Edie Falco. Nurse Jackie‘s sort of semi-comeback among awards show contenders means only two things: 1. the show is having some creative resurgence or 2. the field is so empty. I guess I’ll leave the answer to you then. Then we have Lena Dunham in possibly the best season she had as an actress of the show. I think that if the field continues to be this weak here, Dunham can manage to survive one to two more Best Actress nods under her belt regardless of the show’s reception. And then there’s forever the bridesmaid Amy Poehler. At this point, Poehler had done everything to win the Emmy, but voters aren’t really responding to these type of Michael Schur characters (I mean hello Steve fucking Carell). In the past, she already submitted a two parter, achieved a nod when her show is a Series nominee, got Writing and Acting nod the same year and yet none of those still worked. So I guess a nomination would suffice again this year. Then this year’s newbie is filled by Taylor Schilling as the core character from the huge ensemble of Orange is the New Black. That last spot I can see can go to Mindy Kaling (who’s a past nominee for Writing) and her announcing the Emmy nods might be an obvious indicator of that, but I guess I wouldn’t just underestimate Chuck Lorre at this point so I’m going with Mom‘s Anna Faris for the last slot.
OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:
• The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
• Brooklyn Nine Nine (NBC)
• Louie (FX)
• Modern Family (ABC)
• Orange is the New Black (Netflix)
• Veep (HBO)
Seventh nominee: Girls (HBO)
And we’re here at the final stretch. Okay let’s get the obvious ones out of the way. Modern Family is soooo getting in so there’s Slot 1. Veep is easily making it for Round 3 so there’s Slot 2. Orange is the new Black is too big to ignore that if there’s only one room for a newbie here, that would be it. So there goes Slot 3. Louie’s msot recent season has been more dramatic than comedic, but it has the critics rallying up behind it that it’s gonna be surprising if it suddenly missed after finally penetrating last year’s line up. And then there’s the fourth slot. The Big Bang Theory hasn’t achieved the same critical and commercial buzz it had last year (and yet it was used to no avail since they did not win Series), so even if their chances somehow weakened, a series nod is still manageable. Now there’s five slots already. As for that sixth slot, it starts to get tricky. On one hand, there’s Brooklyn Nine Nine a.k.a Fox’s only contender in this category. On its side, it’s a freshman show who has some sort of buzz, it’s Fox’s #1 priority here, and it’s a traditional comedy from a broadcast network. However, it’s ratings aren’t something to write home about, it doesn’t have a Tina Fey or an Alec Baldwin in its side, and that Orange is the more buzzed freshman show. Then on the other, there’s Girls. On its hit stride, voters can easily just vote the recurring nominees from last year’s batch and it can easily make it, it’s still getting awards and mentions, and its third season has been some sort of a creative resurgence from critics and fans alike. But then again, it’s not HBO’s priority, and all its buzz has dwindled so fast it’s not even the watercooler show of the season nor of this line up. Of course with the new 2% rule, there’s a possibility that we might get seven nominees in the end, but let’s stick to the current six line up. Now who do I think gets in that coveted last slot. I guess I’m going with Brooklyn Nine Nine by a hair over Girls. I think there’s more buzz for the former and traditional comedy shows still has their hold in this category despite the slow HBO dominance the past few years. Plus, the shelf life for female-led/centric shows are just two seasons and they easily drop them off. Sure Sex and the City is an exception, but Ally McBeal and Glee were lucky enough to get two nods while the likes of Desperate Housewives and ugly Betty have to settle for their only pilot season series nods. So yeah, i’m going with Brooklyn in this one.
Now there you have it. Do you think Allison Janney is finally making that Emmy comeback? Will Shameless shamelessly moving to the comedy category finally catch another acting nod aside from Joan Cusack? And how many Modern Family actors can survive this season? Tomorrow, the last part as we tackle the drama categories! Thanks for reading!
As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
2005: Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development” [WRONG]
2006: Steve Carell, “The Office” WRONG]
2007: Steve Carell, “The Office” [WRONG]
2008: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2009: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” [CORRECT]
2010: Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” [WRONG]
2011: Steve Carell, “The Office” [WRONG]
2012: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” [WRONG]
Now it’s time to dissect the last acting category of the year, and at the forefront are the six funny men of comedy. This is a fairly weak category, though I love the inclusions of Jason Bateman who managed to get in despite the lacking presence of Arrested Development this season and Matt LeBlanc since I’m a big Friends fanboy, and I love seeing them rewarded for anything post-show. Sadly though, there’s not enough space left for New Girl‘s Jake Johnson who was lauded for his career best work last season. Anyway, ;et’s go to the nominees.
Alec Baldwin is in for the last time for his stint in 30 Rock. After winning in 2008 and 2009, he stopped submitting competitive episode (at times because he want co-nominees to win or maybe he stopped bothering at all). The same can be said for his submission this year A Goon’s Deed in a Weary World, where in he’s in the B storyline of the episode. With that said, Baldwin is still a force of a name in television and he’s the only person who won seven straight years at the SAGs. So that might account to something.
Oscar nominee Don Cheadle receives a second consecutive nod for House of Lies. Truth be told, I’m not the biggest fan of the show, as its humor simply doesn’t stick with me. However, I have to give him credit for coming up with a submission that at least made me chuckled. It’s a vast improvement from his submission last year. I’d still put him dead last though and stick by the idea that he just got in for his movie star status.
Surviving the Arrested Development snub is lead star Jason Bateman. Bateman benefits from the character-centric nature of the season, as he shines with the most screentime in this category. As for his submission Flight of the Phoenix, I think it did not do him any favors that his Michael is far from the typical Michael that we’ve seen from the past season. In this one, he’s clingy, desperate and unlikable which does not work well in his favor.
Aside from Alec Baldwin, Jim Parsons is also gunning for his third Emmy win in this category. But unlike Jack Donaghy, Parsons clearly knows what to submit. He went for a throwback drunk episode which puts him the win n this category in 2010 for The Pants Alternative. By submitting The Habitation Configuration, that makes him an easy frontrunner in this category.
Matt LeBlanc is in a different situation altogether. Despite gaining no buzz for the show, they still manage to reap nods for writing and acting the same way they did two years ago. That says something with how popular the show is towards the people that matter (the nominating and voting people). In his submission, he was in a conflicted situation as he force to give his agent a car, until the secret behind his act was revealed. LeBlanc played this role well, and I think it’s unwise to underestimate him.
And then there’s Louis CK. As each year passes, the love for his show Louie increases. Just for this year alone, he collected a total of nine nominations. With that said, I don’t know how big of a hard on the Emmys has on him since the nature of his show has a history of not winning for acting. If another Emmy favorite Larry David can’t snatch one for Curb Your Enthusiasm, then I’m adamant that they’ll lean to Louis CK’s performance. I really can’t think of a solid way to describe his chances.
I guess in the end it’s a battle of the first one to enter the three time category winners. On one hand, there’s Alec Baldwin who’s on his last shot to do so. I don’t think Baldwin can be stopped by a weak submission especially since this is their last shot to reward him. However, Jim Parsons is enjoying an all time high of critical and commercial love for the show. If anything, he can be the token recognition of Emmys acknowledging the show. But then again, I’m pretty sure 30 Rock is bound to win something, and since it did not happen with Stritch, and I’m thisclose to moving Louis CK as my winner in Writing, then this category makes sense. I go back and forth with the two, but I guess I’d go with Baldwin.
Prediction: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
Runner-Up: Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
1. Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”
2. Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
3. Louis CK, “Louie”
4. Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
5. Jason Bateman, “Arrested Development”
6. Don Cheadle, “Louie”
You can see my other Emmy predictions here.
Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl
2005: Alec Baldwin, “Will and Grace” [WRONG]
2006: Martin Sheen, “Two and a Half Men” [WRONG]
2007: Stanley Tucci, “Monk” [CORRECT]
2008: Will Arnett, “30 Rock” [WRONG]
2009: Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live” [CORRECT]
2010: Neil Patrick Harris, “Glee” [CORRECT]
2011: Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live” [CORRECT]
2012: Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live” [CORRECT]
For the last few years, the comedy guest acting categories have been home of mostly Saturday Night Live hosts with them getting nominated yearly and having three of the last four winners from their show. Is SNL the Law and Order: SVU in this category? Hmm. For this year, notable misses were Patrick Wilson of Girls, perennial nominee Will Arnett for 30 Rock, and former SNL (shocker!) cast member Martin Short’s hosting stint.
Justin Timberlake comes back for a third bid in this category, for his latest SNL appearance. After his two previous wins here, it is unwise to dismiss his chances here. After all, this has the same format of his last two winning stints. He also had the benefit of being the musical performer in his episode which means he has the longest screentime out of everybody (even doubling some of the other nominees in this category).
As for the other SNL nominee here, Louis C.K. has the second most screentime here. Between his eight other nominations, it’s clear that he is very well loved by the Academy and that can translate to any win. This can be one of his easier wins if the voters go all Louis CK this year. Besides, he has the second longest exposure among the nominees here.
For his stint as Pepper, Nathan Lane receives another nomination for Modern Family. He wasn’t given much to do in his submitted episode (A Slight in the Opera) , as all he has is one memorable slap from the episode’s B storyline. One might consider this as confidence in his performance for him to get nominated despite nothing to do, but maybe I’m just over thinking and this is the result of lazy voting.
Despite being a legendary presence in American television, it is really surprising that Bob Newhart still hasn’t won an Emmy yet. This year, he adds another nomination under his résumé for his performance as Professor Proton in The Big Bang Theory’s The Proton Resurgence episode. While this one is more of a buzzed casting, Newhart was fantastic in his short moments and has good chemistry with the whole cast.
Then you have Nurse Jackie’s Bobby Cannavale coming back for a consecutive nod. I remember liking his episode last year better than this one (Walk of Shame), as this one packs an all emotional dramatic punch and no comedic hints at all. In here, he had his exit interview in All Saints. He seems to be one of the actors that Emmys love to reward with nomination.
And for the sixth year in a row, a Will is nominated for 30 Rock. Surprisingly though, it is not Will Arnett who gets the farewell nomination for the show. For the first time, Will Forte is the one who was nommed for the show. This is quite a headscratching nomination as his screentime in his episode “My Whole Life is Thunder” is two minutes tops. He is in the smallest storyline of the season and this one doesn’t require him to do anything. Part of me thinks if his good word for his film (the Cannes entry Nebraska) during the voting period factored in here.
As for the winner, while this is leaning towards another Saturday Night Live win, I’m inclined to go with Emmyless veteran Bob Newhart for his turn as Professor Proton. However, this is not a slam dunk tape and maybe they’d go for either Louis CK or Justin Timberlake. With that said, the desire for Newhart to win an Emmy is on the roof now, and this is their chance to reward him.
Prediction: Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory”
Runner-Up: Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live”
1. Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory”
2. Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live”
3. Justin Timberlake, “Saturday Night Live”
4. Nathan Lane, “Modern Family”
5. Bobby Cannavale, “Nurse Jackie”
6. Will Forte, “30 Rock”
To check out other Emmy predictions, simply click here.
You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl