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Final 67th Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions   2 comments

emmy predictions 2015

Drama Series: Game of Thrones (alternate: Mad Men)
Drama Lead Actor: Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards” (alternate: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Drama Lead Actress: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder” (alternate: Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”)
Drama Supporting Actor: Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul” (alternate: Ben Mendelsohn, “Bloodline)
Drama Supporting Actress: Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones” (alternate: Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black)
Drama Directing: Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy” (alternate: Homeland, “From A to B and Back Again”)
Drama Writing: Mad Men, “Person to Person” (alternate: Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy”)

Comedy Series: Veep (alternate: Modern Family)
Comedy Lead Actor: Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent” (alternate: Will Forte, “The Last Man on Earth”)
Comedy Lead Actress: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep” (alternate: Amy Schumer, “Inside Amy Schumer”)
Comedy Supporting Actor: Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (alternate: Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”)
Comedy Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, “Mom” (alternate: Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”)
Comedy Directing: The Last Man on Earth, “Alive in Tucson” (alternate: Veep, “Testimony”)
Comedy Writing: Veep, “Election Night” (alternate: Transparent, “Pilot”)

Limited Series: Olive Kitteridge (alternate: Wolf Hall)
Limited Series or Movie Lead Actor: Mark Rylance, “Wolf Hall” (alternate: Richard Jenkins, “Olive Kitteridge”)
Limited Series or Movie Lead Actress: Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge” (alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman”)
Limited Series or Movie Supporting Actor: Damian Lewis, “Wolf Hall” (alternate: Bill Murray, “Olive Kitteridge”)
Limited Series or Movie Supporting Actress: Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Freak Show” (alternate: Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Freak Show”
Limited Series or Movie Directing: Olive Kitteridge (alternate: Wolf Hall)
Limited Series or Movie Writing: Wolf Hall (alternate: Olive Kitteridge)

Reality/Competition Show: The Amazing Race (alternate: The Voice)
Variety Talk Show: The Colbert Report (alternate: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver)
Variety Sketch Show: Saturday Night Live (alternate: Inside Amy Schumer)
Variety Directing: Inside Amy Schumer, “12 Angry Men Inside Amy Schumer” (alternate: Late Show with David Letterman, “Episode Show 2414”)
Variety Writing: Inside Amy Schumer (alternate: The Colbert Report)

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama series

Prediction: “Game of Thrones”
Alternate:Mad Men”

Full Rankings:
01. “Game of Thrones
02. “Mad Men”
03. “House of Cards
04. “Better Call Saul
05. “Homeland
06. “Orange is the New Black
07. “Downton Abbey

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama lead actor

Prediction: Kevin Spacey “House of Cards”
Alternate: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”

Full Rankings:
01. Kevin Spacey “House of Cards”
02. Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
03. Kyle Chandler, “Bloodline
04. Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul
05. Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom
06. Liev Schreiber., “Ray Donovan”

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama lead actress

Prediction: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
Alternate: Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”

Full Rankings:
01. Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
02. Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”
03. Robin Wright, “House of Cards
04. Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black
05. Claire Danes, “Homeland
06. Elisabeth Moss., “Mad Men

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Writing in a Drama and Comedy Series   Leave a comment

comedy writing

Prediction: Veep, “Election Night
Alternate: Transparent, “Pilot

Full Rankings:
01. Veep, “Election Night
02. Transparent, “Pilot
03. Louie, “Bobby’s House
04. Silicon Valley, “Two Days of the Condor
05. Episodes, “Episode Nine”
06. The Last Man on Earth, “Alive in Tucson

drama writingPrediction: Mad Men, “Person to Person
Alternate: Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy

Full Rankings:
01. Mad Men, “Person to Person
02. Game of Thrones, “Mother’s Mercy
03. Better Call Saul, “Five-O
04. Mad Men, “Lost Horizon
05. The Americans, “Do Mail Robots Dream of Electric Sheep?”

67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama supp actress

Prediction: Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones”
Alternate: Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black”

Full Rankings:
01. Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones”
02. Uzo Aduba, “Orange is the New Black”
03. Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”
04. Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men
05. Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey
06. Emilia Clarke, “Game of Thrones

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Drama and Comedy Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Drama Series

Today we’ll be finishing the Emmy 2014 analysis series here at Tit for Tat by doing the remaining two categories left for the 66th Primetime Emmy Awards before envelopes are opened on Monday night. And with no further ado, let’s begin with the drama programs of the past season.

When it seemed like it’s gonna go downhill from the first season, House of Cards went on and even beat their nomination tally of their previous season. While that showed potential that voters aren’t giving up on the show anytime soon, I don’t think Netflix has completely managed to pull off the win in here as well. Mad Men stays for another year and is likely to join the club of shows nominated for all their eligible seasons, but it has been back in 2011 when they still won any Emmy so at this point, it’s a filler at best. Game of Thrones was screwed by another HBO being campaigned here, and while the show’s chances would increase, the genre bias against a fantasy show is still hard to overcome, even if with overwhelming reviews. Downton Abbey might have lost Hugh Bonneville this year, but gained Joanne Froggatt back again. All it lost is a Directing nom, so if anything, I think it indicates that it will still be nominated in the succeeding years. Breaking Bad seemed a confident frontrunner all season though it doesn’t have the benefit of airing a current season during Emmy voting. MeanwhileHBO must have too much confidence in True Detective to even consider ruining the small chance of Game of Thrones. After all, this is a now or never moment for the Emmys to reward this season. But then again, a cultural phenomenon like Breaking Bad doesn’t deserve to end with only one Drama Series Emmy in its mantle. Just like its previous cable show successor The Sopranos, the show is too big to resist to be denied of a second Drama Series; thus, I’m predicting it to win again.

Prediction: Breaking Bad
Alternate: “True Detective

Full Rankings:
01. “Breaking Bad
02. True Detective
03. “House of Cards
04. “Game of Thrones
05. “Downton Abbey
06. “Mad Men

Emmy Comedy Series

And lastly, we’re now on the comedy series. Last season, when it had critics rallying around it and it continuing to be a dominating force ratings wise, The Big Bang Theory still wasn’t able to do any big moves in the race, and I think it has already peaked when it comes to its chances of winning the top plum now. Louie, in its most dramatic season, would never also find its way near to the podium so the fact that it even got nominated for such is already a feat of its own. Not only did it manage to pick up a series nod, it also swept writing and directing nods so that bodes well for Silicon Valley but this show is too alienating for a broad amount of voters to prevail. It also doesn’t help that even if its on HBO, its ratings are nothing to be proud of. Sadly, the same applies for the other HBO show Veep, though to its benefit, it has Julia Louis Dreyfus maintaining the buzz for the show and the guilds totally supporting it. Maybe it’s a slow burner? In the end, I see this as a close fight between 4x champ Modern Family and newbie series Orange is the New Black. On one hand, Modern Family lost some of its key nominations (primarily two acting nods for its ensemble), but then again, it’s still the broadest show in this line up that I don’t think it will have any problem winning for a fifth one. It also submitted its best set of tapes, so it’s really not wise to dismiss this show altogether. Stealing its thunder, however, is the new Netflix show picking up 15 nominations and winning already three. The Orange ensemble is campaigning like crazy, and despite being on Netflix, the show has done a good job of making others aware of it. While I don’t think it’s a shoo-in, it’s also helped by its second season delivering (like how Breaking Bad was helped last year) unlike other female-oriented nominated shows before. In the end, I’d give the odds to them crowning a new champ now, but I’ll be wary since Modern Family is very much still in this race.

Prediction: Orange is the New Black
Alternate: “Modern Family

Full Rankings:
01. “Orange is the New Black
02. Modern Family
03. “Veep
04. “Silicon Valley
05. “The Big Bang Theory”
06. “Louie

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

There you have it! Let’s see how many of these will I get correctly or how badly I will do this year. For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Drama Lead Actor

And we’re now down to the last male acting category for this year’s Emmy analysis special here at Tit for Tat. After Jeff Daniels’ out of nowhere win last year, this is surely a contended race and definitely one of the nail-biters come Emmy ceremony. Let’s discuss Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

Despite winning two Oscars and a few SAGs under his belt, Kevin Spacey still hasn’t won an Emmy (and a Golden Globe for that matter) despite having multiple nominations already. This year, Spacey is nominated once again for House of Cards, and he submitted the season finale “Chapter 26” to the panel. In it, we see Vice President Frank Underwood doing some saving after his allies find out his backstabbing plans. He then turns tables around to fix it which led to a chilling ending for his character. This is really a great arc for Spacey and he was given a lot to do with it making him feel empowered, defeated, vindicated all in one episode. He talks to the camera, he does a narration, he connives, and he is vile in it. I really am surprised that he hasn’t won any award for this role so far, but with lesser competition next year, maybe that’s when he’ll start to actually dominate the race.

Now going to his seventh nomination with no wins still, Jon Hamm has become one of the perennial losers in this category even surpassing Hugh Laurie and Michael C. Hall already. While it seems like the Academy doesn’t like the acting on Mad Men, it also didn’t help that he submitted “The Stretegy” which wasn’t his strongest episode this season. As opposed to the previous episodes, voters get to sympathize with Don Draper this time upon realizing that his marriage is falling apart and has to convince Peggy that he’s helping and not sabotaging her. But really, it’s all moot. Maybe he can take advantage of the empty crowd next year with the show’s final season in play.

People surely underestimated him last year and at the nominations last month, but it seems like Jeff Daniels is here to stay…for this year at least. Refuting to be a one hit wonder, Daniels picks up a consecutive nod to regain his title and had “Election Night Part 2″ to help him achieve that. In this episode, we see a more personal story from Will as he tackles his relationship with MacKenzie ending with a proposal. While this is not at the same level of the speech he gave in his winning episode last year, I think he has stronger competition this year to do a repeat of his win.

In one of the best episodes submitted ever in this category. Bryan Cranston in “Ozymandias” is certainly the best tape he has submitted in this category including all his three winning tapes here before. He is on fire for the whole episode here with a nod to his earlier Walt at the start of the episode up until that confrontation with Anna Gunn in the end. There’s no denying that this is a powerful tape and one that can easily win again since his last victory four years ago. If only he had weaker competition, I’d be very easy to say this will be an easy one for the books but then comes…

True Detective. Both the leads of the show got nominated here and let’s start with Emmy winner Woody Harrelson. Woody was wise to submit “The Locked Room” which had him dealing with his family’s reaction to his work. Due to his covering of the case, he has forgotten about his family which ended with him breaking down when confronted by his wife. There’s also a scene with his mistress near the end where he demands that she sees no other man aside from him. As for his co-star’s tape, he benefits from it since it’s the finale episode of the series.

Lastly, coming off from an Oscar win last March, Matthew McConaughey is now on the hunt for the Emmy as well as the other actor of True Detective. While his submissions is arguable to most people (majority felt he should have went with “The Secret  Fate of All Life” or Who Goes There“), his submission of the series finale “Form and Void” isn’t really something to be ashamed off. In it, they’ve finally put the pieces of the puzzle together which ended with a creepy chasing scene at the maze. In the final scene, McConaughey delivers a really strong monologue which can seal the high rankings from the panel. He also benefits from Harrelson’s tape, as it showcased a different side of Rust so that’s two tapes from him.

I guess it all boils down to Bryan Cranston and Matthew McConaughey. Cranston submitted his consensus tour de force tape while others are meh on McConaughey. But then again, he has two tapes which shows his range, and it’s the last two they’ll be seeing when they watch the Lead Actor reel (since episodes are arranged on the tape alphabetically of the show’s name). When you have two great tapes competing, that’s when the outside factors in, and I think McConaughey is ahead of that. He’s basically Hollywood’s “go to” guy now after his career turnaround the past few years. While Cranston aims to tie the record of Dennis Franz in this category with four wins, this is their only chance to reward McConaughey for this performance. If ever there’s someone who’ll be tying Dennis Franz though, it’ll be Bryan Cranston, but I think this is the case where Cranston’s three previous Emmy wins hurt his chances when pitted against showbiz’ poster actor in a one time performance.

Prediction: Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
Alternate: Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad

Full Rankings:
01. Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
02. Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad
03. Kevin Spacey, ‘House of Cards
04. Woody Harrelson, “True Detective
05. Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom
06. Jon Hamm, “Mad Men

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Drama Supp Actress

And we’re back with the Emmy coverage! After a ten day hiatus, here’s the second half of the Emmy analysis process over here at Tit for Tat. After doing the guest acting and longform categories last week, let’s move on by doing the supporting ones this week. And we begin with the drama supporting actresses of the year.

Earning her fifth consecutive nomination, Christina Hendricks survives another year of getting nominated for Mad Men. This year, she submitted The Strategy, which isn’t a totally bad submission given how she’s really not much of a non-factor this season. Hendricks surely seems to be one of those affected by the Emmys lack of enthusiasm over giving Mad Men an acting award because she has submitted great episodes before (Guy Walks into an Advertising Agency, The Other Woman) to no avail. I don’t think her fate will change this year though.

Coming off a one year-snub, Joanne Froggatt gets in for a second time for her role as Anna Bates in Downton Abbey. She surely nailed her submission by going with Episode 2 in which her character was raped by the end of the episode. It’s truly a competitive storyline and one that has worked wonders before in the past for other actresses. However, the main detriment to Froggatt’s episode is that her scene comes during the last five minutes of the episode, and I don’t know if it will be impactful enough to be anyone’s top ranked performance.

Then there’s Froggatt’s co-star, 2012 winner Dame Maggie Smith. At this point, Smith is probably a prominent case of name-checking. I really don’t think she herself even bothers anymore, and I won’t be surprised if people involved with the show are the ones submitting for her. That said, I have to say that they did a terrible job this year by submitting for her Episode 8. In this one and a half hour long submissions, Smith rarely appears and is mostly relegated to reacting a thing or two with the other characters. It’s really not worthy to watch the whole episode especially if you’re not the show’s fan.

Speaking of winners, current champ Anna Gunn is in the running for a consecutive win. And that makes that possibility closer because she submitted Ozymandias which is basically one (if not the) of the finest hours of television the past season. Gunn gave a very complex performance here that started with her being calm and quiet and she gets more intense as the episode progressed. She has a breakdown scene, a confession scene, and it has all the makings of a winning tape it’s not even close with how the rest of these women submitted.

Like Hendricks, Christine Baranski is also on her fifth consecutive nomination for The Good Wife. Season wise, it really is an outstanding season for Baranski with everything that has happened to Diane Lockhart from the firm separation and her supposed promotion at the beginning of the season to her dealing with Will Gardner at the bottom end of the show. She has lots of tapes to choose from so it is quite controversial that she went with The Last Call as this is an episode where it’s mostly an ensemble piece. Is it her best submission? I don’t think so. But is it a bad submission? I don’t think so as well. While she’s not the far standout in it, she was given lots to do and showcased an icy Diane at the beginning with the intern scene, vulnerable with her scenes with Alicia, and commanding with the firing of the client. It’s an underrated good tape in hindsight, and a competitive one.

And lastly, replacing her co-star Emilia Clarke last year, Lena Headey is the fourth Game of Thrones actor to receive an individual Emmy nod after Peter Dinklage, Dame Diana Rigg, and Clarke. Headey submitted one of the most buzzed episode of the season The Lion and the Rose. While not as debatable as Baranski’s submission, Headey gets to have that breakdown scene at the end. Hell hath no fury like a mother scorned indeed, and I can see this channeling votes for her.

In the end, Anna Gunn is so far and away this competition it’s not even funny. It seems like stars are written for her to win a second Emmy as the token farewell Emmy acting win, and so she can join multiple Emmy winning co-stars Aaron Paul and Bryan Cranston. While this category has been notoriously a venue for these out of the field wins from mid 2000s to 2010, the past three years all went with the frontrunner (Margo Martindale, Maggie Smith, Anna Gunn). Baranski is competitive as well, and she’s the only show’s chance to continue the trend of rewarding one Good Wife female actress per season (Archie Panjabi in 2010, Julianna Margulies in 2011, Martha Plimpton in 2012, and Carrie Preston in 2013). Joanne Froggatt would have had more chance to upset had Maggie Smith’s submission helped her here, but she was non-existent in the latter’s episode that it did not increase her chances at all. But for now, I’m sticking with the thought of 2x Emmy winner Anna Gunn.

Prediction: Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad
Alternate: Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife

Full Rankings:
01. Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad
02. Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife
03. Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey
04. Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones
05. Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey
06. Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Drama Guest Actor

Hi there! You’re still following Tit for Tat’s 2014 Emmy coverage, as I discuss and predict the people whose names will be called come the Emmy ceremony next month. Last week, we focused on the longform categories, but this week is all about the guest actors and actresses. For this particular post though, let’s put the spotlight on our drama guest actors.

Dylan Baker continues his alternate pattern of getting Guest Actor nominations for The Good Wife in its odd seasons after picking up nods for Seasons 1 and 3. For his third bid, he submitted the episode Tying the Knot where he meets path with Alicia again. However, it seems like he was an extra in this episode as the focus was on Alicia’s participation in the trial and he was mostly in reaction shots for the entire episode.  He had better episodes before and if he can’t win for those, I doubt things will change this time around.

Despite winning four Best Drama Series and being nominated for 32 nods collectively, Mad Men still hasn’t won any acting award. Robert Morse in his last bid in this category (and his fifth one) tries to finally bring the show’s first one. In the season finale Waterloo, we see this long time character bid farewell to the show in his last episode. There’s nothing much that has happened for the duration of his episode until the last five minutes where he performs “The Best Things in lives Are Free.” It is arguably the most memorable performance from all the nominated reels, and I won’t be surprised if he siphoned votes for it, but I think it’s still low key in the context of his competition.

Prior to the nominations, it was current champ Dan Bucatinsky who was expected to make a comeback in this category and even a run for a back to back victory. Come announcement though, it was co-guest star Joe Morton who sees his name in the running for this year. Playing Olivia’s manipulative father, Morton’s Papa Pope is every inch competitive in his submission “Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner” It shows the history of his character with lots of confrontation with Kerry Washington’s character. This has range and is a very showy performance, and if we look at the history of this category, they tend to favor this type of acting here.

Speaking of father, House of Cards Reg E. Cathey was one of this year’s surprise nominees. His nomination basically came out of nowhere. But if you watch his submission, you know he’s every inch competitive in this race. In Chapter 22, his friendship with Francis Underwood’s character was put into jeopardy when issues involving Freddy’s son pop up and that it might affect and cost Underwood any negative publicity. I think it is an advantage to him that his episode showed his complete arc and that eh was very sympathetic in it. While he wasn’t totally shouty in his delivery, it still has a huge impact given the context of his submission.

While Oscar winner Shirley Maclaine was snubbed for the second year in a row, Oscar nominee Paul Giamatti did not have any problems earning another Emmy nomination for his turn in Downton Abbey. As Harold Levinson in his submission Episode 8, this American visiting Downton Abbey, he wasn’t really given much to do. He has a really small arc botched in random parts of the episode, and he’s not even the stand out of it, so I think it’s a case of name checking. That said, it can also put him to an advantage being the most “prominent” name in this line up, which is a bad scenario to think.

Last but certainly not the least is Beau Bridges earning his 15th career Emmy nod for Masters of Sex. By now, its pretty obvious that he is some sort of a favorite with 3 wins already under his belt. In his submission, the season finale episode Manhigh, Bridges finally reveals to his wife a well kept secret of his youth. He also gets another moment in his episode when he was put under pressure for some hospital decisions. It was mostly a calm performance, and even his admissions scene wasn’t fireworks-y, but his association in his episode was naturally integrated and he blends in well with the whole ensemble.

Months ago, I was certain that Beau Bridges would easily win this race. Don’t get me wrong, I still think he’s in the race and his last Emmy win was 17 years ago, so he’s sort of due for another win. That said, I can’t discount Joe Morton’s totally showy performance here especially after the wins of Paul McCrane and Dan Bucatinsky, it seems like they prefer the very visible acting type here. However, I’m going with Reg E. Cathey pulling off a Glynn Turman win here (and no it’s not because they are both black actors). My comparison stems from the idea that he is a long time working veteran character actor  whose arc is one that elicits the most sympathy here  (both dealing with their sons) and he was shown many times in his submission provided with a complete arc. I just feel that it’s one that will have the most passionate fans from the voters that can propel him to a win. I mean if he can pull off the surprise nomination, then a win isn’t out of grasp as well. Now go watch Joe Morton win this then (lol).

Prediction: Reg E. Cathey, “House of Cards”
Alternate: Joe Morton, “Scandal

Full Rankings:
01. Reg E. Cathey, “House of Cards”
02. Joe Morton, “Scandal
03. Beau Bridges, “Masters of Sex
04. Robert Morse, “Mad Men
05. Paul Giamatti, “Downton Abbey
06. Dylan Baker, “The Good Wife

You can check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl