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67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

comedy supp actress

Let’s move on to the supporting ladies of comedy, which is also the biggest category of the night as we have eight nominations for this year. Mayim Bialik luckily sneaks in for another year despite The Big Bang Theory and Jim Parsons finally being dropped, so that doesn’t inspire much confidence with her chances. Kate McKinnon has opened her episode with a big Clinton skit, as well as her Jane Lynch (2010 winner in this category) impersonation, but we have yet to see a sketch show performer win in the supporting categories. Meanwhile, 2x winner Julie Bowen settled for another Valentine’s Day episode (like that of her first bid), and while her tape pales in comparison, she’s a pretty respected veteran who voters already showered with love here. Niecy Nash, the year’s surprise nominee, can win ala Merritt Wever in 2013. Not only are they playing similar roles in cable comedic series, but it’s the underrated nominee who can benefit in a large group nominations. Gaby Hoffmann gets to be high and has threeway in her Transparent episode, but if she can’t win Guest Actress for a far more in your face performance, odds are, her nominations are her reward this year. Current champ Allison Janney already knows the tricks of the trade when it comes to Emmy, proven by her 6 trophies at home, and a seventh one is indeed possible as her tape is full of physical hilarity, something this category loves. After a string of unsuccessful bids for Jane Krakowski in 30 Rock, she comes back to the race, this time for Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, and while her submission was met with mixed reviews, her goodwill might be enough to trumple it. Closing the group is Anna Chlumsky on her third try and possibly her closest shot yet, as we see her give a breakdown speech to Julia Louis Dreyfus’ Selina Meyer.

This one feels like a battle between Allison Janney who has masterfully perfected the craft of Emmy process already vs. Anna Chlumsky who’s on a personal best episode in a Comedy Series frontrunner. Tony Hale managed to beat the Modern Family men in 2013, so maybe Chlumsky can too, but I’d say let’s be safe and think that Janney’s is the type of performance they reward multiple times.

Prediction: Allison Janney, “Mom”
Alternate: Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”

Full Rankings:
01. Allison Janney, “Mom”
02. Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”
03. Niecy Nash, “Going On
04. Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
05. Jane Krakowski, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
06. Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live
07. Gaby Hoffmann, “Transparent
08. Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory

Check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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66th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

Emmy Comedy Supp Actress

Yesterday, the dramatic supporting actresses took the spotlight in our analysis. It’s now time for their comedic counterparts to shine as we tackle the Emmy for Comedy Supporting Actress. We’re bound to get a new winner this year since current champ Merritt Wever of Nurse Jackie was snubbed for a nomination (alongside Sofia Vergara of Modern Family).

Let’s begin with three time nominee Mayim Bialik. Solidifying her case as THE supporting actress from The Big Bang Theory, Bialik submits The Indecision Amalgamation in which her Amy plays total support to boyfriend Sheldon as he decides which gadget he’ll buy. As opposed to her previous submissions, Bialik doesn’t have a “scene” this year which is probably good for her chances as most pundits usually overrate those and her chances in general. In this episode though, she shares a dinner scene with Parsons where she plays over the top and that can probably get her some votes. She’s also coming fresh from a solo SAG nod and while that did not help Vanessa Williams or Sofia Vergara before, it indicates somewhat of a support for her.

The only previous winner in this category, 2x champ Julie Bowen firmly maintains her hold as one of the three remaining Modern Family cast to be nominated. This year, she has the opportunity to be the third person in history to have 3 Emmys in this category. Her submission, “The Feud“, is probably her weakest though. In it, she discovered that she got lice from her niece Lily, and she deals with its effect while closing a transaction with a developer. While it highlights Bowen’s strength in physical comedy, I don’t think it was able to maximize her acting skills at all. That said, far more surprising things have happened before, so I don’t think she’s necessarily out now.

Now on her second consecutive nomination, Veep‘s Anna Chlumsky submitted Detroit for this year. Opposite to her submissions last year where she plays in total control freak mode, Chlumsky is more subdued in this episode as she was relegated to the funny one liners. This ended with a confession from Selina to her character Amy and one that also touched her physical comedy with her massage scene at the end of the episode. Chlumsky’s weak spot is that Veep has perfected its use of its ensemble that a character like hers really find it hard to totally stand out. But at leas we see some range here and some “clip” material in her episode.

Gunning for a possible 2/2 this year, Allison Janney shows a different dynamic devoid of her subtle acting in Masters of Sex with her nomination for Mom. Playing the hip mother Bonnie, she submitted the episode Estrogen and a Heart Breakfast which dealt with her menopause. Ding ding ding! We have a winner. More often than not, this is an Emmy winning storyline that has given wins to many actresses before. In her episode, Janney was funny, riotous, dynamic, and just goes on a lot of range that is very different from her only Emmy winning role. It’s also a category that loves big flashy characters such as hers so it makes her case stronger. Her main con though is that Mom isn’t necessarily a well received show by the Emmys, and she’s competing with five other actresses who all belong to Series nominated shows.

Following the footsteps of Amy Poehler, Kristin Wiig, and Bill Hader, Kate McKinnon became the fourth cast member of Saturday Night Live to be nominated in the supporting category. While I didn’t think that Emmy would recognize her quickly, winning is an altogether different thing. In her episode hosted by Anna Kendrick, McKinnon actually appeared in a lot of sketches starting with the cold open and a slot with Colin Jost in the Weekend Update. In between, she also sang in the Dongs All Over the World, and this is a good submission per se. However, I’ll probably start to predict an SNL regular for a win once somebody starts to win. I still think they stick out like a sore thumb in the midst of all these other shows and that doesn’t work well in their favor.

And to complete it, we have veteran actress Kate Mulgrew receiving her first Emmy nod for Orange is the New Black. She submitted the episode Tit Punch in which the flashback focused on her character Red, and how she ended up in prison. While it mostly is dramatic, her range was undeniably present in this episode as we watch her character switch back and forth to flashback and present time. It’s also a complete arc for her character, and it doesn’t hurt that she’s in the most nominated comedy this year.

There’s a strong case to make for both Allison Janney and Kate Mulgrew here. It really depends on what the assigned panel will like since both make sense as the likely winner here. Mulgrew is the veteran who is in the more loved show and has the longest screentime among all nominees here. Janney, on the other hand, comes back with a bang and I’m really not buying the spread the wealth thing between her two nods since thoe are two separate panels voting in here and in Drama Guest Actress and the chance of a person voting into both is slim to none. After all, the last person who won two acting Emmys the same year is Janney’s West Wing co-star Stockard Channing a dozen years ago. In the end, I guess I’ll go with Janney here. At times, the writing is already on the wall and that Emmys will just go with it (think of Maggie Smith in 2012 as for starters). Mulgrew is a close second though. The other four are really interchangeable it doesn’t even matter anymore…unless we get a Merritt Wever win again.

Prediction: Allison Janney, “Mom
Alternate: Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black

Full Rankings:
01. Allison Janney, “Mom
02. Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black
03. Anna Chlumsky, “Veep
04. Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
05. Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory
06. Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live

Check my other 2014 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 3: Comedy   Leave a comment

Hi guys! We’re now past halfway the Emmy week over at Tit for Tat, and after discussing the possible nominees and my predictions for Reality and Variety, and TV Movie and Miniseries, it’s time to continue the prognosticating before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the nominees on Thursday morning. For this part, our focus will be on the laughter source for the past TV season: COMEDY!

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Directing

• Brooklyn Nine Nine, Pilot (Phil Lord, Chris Miller)
• Girls, Two Plane Rides (Lena Duham)
• Louie, Elevator Part 6 (Louis CK)
• Modern Family, Las Vegas (Gail Mancuso)
• Orange is the New Black, Lesbian Request Denied (Jodie Foster)

Sixth nominee: Silicon Valley, Minimum Viable Product (Mike Judge)

Okay let’s begin with current champ Modern Family. This show has been dominating this category winning the past three years, and a fourpeat is indeed very possible. This Las Vegas episode is one of their more buzzed ones this season, and it’s a very obvious possibility to win as well. Then of course there’s Jodie Foster. Sure she’s no Fincher or Scorsese, but Lesbian Request Denied is a top episode for OITNB’s first season and with the deafening buzz it has, it’s likely she’ll get in here. I’m also predicting the pair of writer/creator/director Louis CK and Lena Dunham. Both have been nominated here for the past two seasons of their shows though I have to say Louis CK is probably the more assured contender here as compared to Dunham. But this semi-sort of creative resurgence for Girls can give her a nod here. As for the last spot, I’m giving it to the duo of Phil Lord and Chris Miller simply because they love pilots in here and it’s the most logical pilot in contention, and second, the duo comes from a hit summer film and a great 2014 year so far.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Writing

• Episodes, Episode 305 (David Crane, Jeffrey Clark)
• Louie, Pamela Part 3 (Louis CK, Pamela Adlon)
• Louie, So Did the Fat Lady (Louis CK)
• Orange is the New Black, I Wasn’t Ready (Pilot) (Liz Friedman, Jenji Kohan)
• Veep, The Special Relationship (Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche)

Sixth nominee: Girls, Beach House (Lena Dunham, Jenni Korner, Judd Apatow)

As much as it does not make sense, Episodes is 2/2 so far when it comes to getting a nomination, so it’s really hard to bet against it. Thus, I guess I’m going with it for my first slot here. Then the writing/directing categories is a haven of some sort for pilot episodes, and I think that will put I Wasn’t Ready in a good position for a nomination as well. Louis CK has won in this category two years ago and has three nods under her belt, so a nod is assured. So Did the Fat Lady is his best contender this year, and I won’t be surprised if it goes on and win all the way. The risk I’m doing though is to predict two Louie nominations here, though I guess I’m putting a lot of faith with the writers and they have delivered before. As for Veep, they finally did the right thing of submitting only one episode for consideration, so it’s really easy to rally up at this point, though I won’t be surprised if it misses simply because it’s not even their best episode of the season (Debate anyone?) and that this sort of “submitting only one episode” has backfired in the past (last year’s Arrested Development as for starters).

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Guest Actor

• Louis CK, “Saturday Night Live
• Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live
• James Earl Jones, “The Big Bang Theory
• Nathan Lane, “Modern Family
• Bob Newhart, “The Big Bang Theory
• Jeremy Renner, “Louie

Seventh nominee: Andy Samberg, “Saturday Night Live

Right now, two previous winners are in the running this year: Jimmy Fallon for SNL and current champ Bob Newhart for The Big Bang Theory, and I think it will be an easy repeat of nomination for the both of them. Then there’s Louis CK coming back for a consecutive nod for SNL as well. Louis CK is one the Emmys love to nominate and he has been beating his own record the past few years already, so another nod here isn’t surprising at all. I think James Earl Jones will get nommed as well since Big Bang managed to pull of a win for an overdue veteran last year, so they know how to headline their vets to get awards traction. As for Nathan Lane, it’s really hard to argue against him especially if he managed to get in for a cameo-like performance last year. And he even had meatier role this year. The last spot I reserve for that “dramatic” performance that usually gets in every year (Eli Wallach and Bobby Cannavale for Nurse Jackie, and Idris Elba for The Big C the past four years), and this year I think Louie is the show getting that slot, and my bet is on 2x Oscar nominee Jeremy Renner. His performance is very dramatic and no comedy element to it at all, but his sheer star power can and Oscar pedigree can give him an Emmy nod as well.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Guest Actress

• Sarah Baker, “Louie
• Laverne Cox, “Orange is the New Black
• Joan Cusack, “Shameless
• Tina Fey, “Saturday Night Live
• Melissa McCarthy, “Saturday Night Live
• June Squibb, “Girls

Seventh nominee: Ellen Burstyn, “Louie

Despite her SNL guesting going mediocre over the years, it’s hard to bet against Melissa McCarthy getting in once again so that’s one slot. The same can be said for Tina Fey who got in the last three years she was eligible here. In a fair world, none of them are getting nominated. And with Shameless shifting to the Comedy categories , it’s easier to get confident with Joan Cusack’s chances. If she can get in every single year in a more competitive Drama, this one is an easier path to a repeat nomination. And then we have Oscar nominee June Squibb. La Squibb is in contention for three different performances in this category: Girls, Glee, and Getting On. My bet is on Girls though since it’s her baitiest one (she’s on the brink of death, voters!!!). Then as for the last two spots, I have reserved one for an Orange is the New Black. My bet is on Laverne Cox since it’s more of a statement of some sort for someone like her to get awards recognition and her episode submission is basically where her character is the focus of it. But then again, I really wouldn’t be surprised if she missed instead for co-star Uzo Aduba. Aduba has been the viewer favorite character all along, and she’s been working the circuit the past few months. And then the last slot I’m giving to a Louie lady. I went with Sarah Baker with the same reasoning of why I went with Laverne Cox: her episode is the more buzzed Louie one. But then again, she’s up against Oscar winner and Emmy semi-fave Ellen Burstyn. Last year, the Emmy went with the popular Oscar winning actress (Melissa Leo) over the online favorite (Parker Posey), and I won’t be surprised if they follow the same format this year with Burstyn getting in over Baker.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Supp Actor

• Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine Nine
• Ty Burrell, “Modern Family
• Adam Driver, “Girls
• Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family
• Tony Hale, “Veep
• Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family

Seventh nominee: Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family

So will Modern Family get four actors again? I won’t be quick to say that again. Last year, Stonestreet missed a year after winning, so I won’t be too easy in thinking they’d get all of them in as well. Let’s get with the easy ones: Ty Burrell is making it in. I think he’s the last standing survivor when the Emmys start to drop it. And for some reason, they have a hard on for Jesse Tyler Ferguson. He’s the only other guy aside from Burrell to get in the past four seasons, so I think he has the other advantage as well. And then of course we have current champ Tony Hale from Veep who probably has a huge chance of repeating that win. I’m also predicting Andre Braugher. I mean if he can get two nods out of Men of a Certain Age, they won’t let the opportunity of nominating him for a comedic role pass by. And of course he’s good in it. I’m going back and forth with Girls’ Adam Driver since he seems like a one time thing, and I’m expecting a decline of nods for the show in general, but between his film projects and his recent Star Wars casting, he’s slowly building the clout to have a strong résumé. The last spot I’m reserving for the two Modern Family men. Ed O’Neill can easily go on for his fourth consecutive nod here, but my hunch is that like Jane Lynch’s comeback last year, Eric Stonestreet will have his this year especially since it’s a crucial season for his character.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Supp Actress

• Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory
• Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
• Anna Chlumsky, “Veep
• Allison Janney, “Mom
• Kate Mulgrew, “Orange is the New Black
• Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family

Seventh nominee: Merrett Wever, “Nurse Jackie

Unlike the men of Modern Family, the women have an easier time getting in annually just because there are only two of them in this category. Thus, it’s easy to say that both Julia Bowen and Sofia Vergara will be back as nominees again. And the same can be said for The Big Bang Theory star Mayim Bialik who even got an individual SAG mention earlier this year which pretty much indicates that there’s a level of support for her performance. If only for the reason that she’s in Veep, and I’m sensing an upward trajectory in terms of its overhaul nod, I’m predicting Anna Chlumsky this year too. She doesn’t have a winning season or a winning tape, but I don’t see her being a one time deal here (even if she makes sense as one). And since her last nomination eight years ago, it’s nice to finally see Allison Janney back in the race, even doing some sort of the record Edie Falco had (by winning a Lead Drama and Comedy Actress Emmy) only this time, she’ll do the Supporting one for her role in Mom. This has been some sort of a banner year for Janney in TV if her double wins at the Critics Choice Awards is too looked at. And lastly, we have current champ Merritt Wever versus Kate Mulgrew. It’s quite odd that Wever isn’t a shoo-in when she beat those four ladies I’m predicting as “sure bets” in this category, but it’s the Emmys we’re talking about here, and a surprise of some sort usually happens. The reason I predicted Kate Mulgrew over here there though is that because Mulgrew is a respected veteran who hasn’t been nominated for any Emmy yet, and she seems poised as the most logical supporting actress from Orange to make some sort of impact in this race.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: 

Comedy Actor

• Don Cheadle, “House of Lies
• Louis C.K, “Louie
• Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes
• William H. Macy, “Shameless
• Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory
• Andy Samberg, “Brooklyn Nine Nine

Seventh nominee: Robin Williams, “The Crazy Ones

TALK. ABOUT. BARREN. Oh god this category can’t even get any more lively after Alec Baldwin’s exit last year. Well let’s begin with Jim Parsons, as surely he’s one of the two I’m 100% confident in. The other is definitely Louis CK. While his is not the type of performance they usually reward here, a nomination is another thing. So whatever happens in this category (may it be a revamp or the same old line up), those two would manage to be in the final line up. We also have Golden Globe winner Andy Samberg who benefits from a  weak line up. If we still have the Carells and the Baldwins here, I’m sure he would be struggling to get a nomination to be honest. And that’s coming from someone who LOVE him in Brooklyn Nine Nine. Just like his show, Matt LeBlanc seems to have his fans in the voting Academy that I won’t be surprised if he gets in again. I mean I had him as an alternate last year and look at what happened. You also get to predict Don Cheadle at this point even if his show stopped making sense a long time ago simply because we have to fill in the six slots here. Oh my god that was very boring to type. And in a certain surprising turn of events, Shameless suddenly decided to shift genres this time, and if there’s one benefit I see happening from that, it’s that William H. Macy can take advantage of this line up to finally get himself a Lead Acting nom. I mean if not him, who else is there? Thomas Middleditch in a show no one cared about? Jonathan Groff in a show everyone cared about… to trash? Canceled sitcom stars Robin Williams and Michael J. Fox? This is so barren that Macy can consider himself lucky. Sadly the same can’t be said about his co-star Emmy Rossum.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Actress

• Lena Dunham, “Girls
• Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie
• Anna Faris, “Mom
• Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep
• Amy Poehler, “Parks and Recreation
• Taylor Schilling, “Orange is the New Black

Seventh nominee: Mindy Kaling, “The Mindy Project

I mean at this point who even cares? Let’s just send the Emmy to Julia Louis Dreyfus’ home and we’ll be done with this. Or not. Maybe because she’ll give an extremely awesome speech the way she did the last two years. But yes, Julia’s winning this easily so let’s just see the five other clappers in this category. First we have Edie Falco. Nurse Jackie‘s sort of semi-comeback among awards show contenders means only two things: 1. the show is having some creative resurgence or 2. the field is so empty. I guess I’ll leave the answer to you then. Then we have Lena Dunham in possibly the best season she had as an actress of the show. I think that if the field continues to be this weak here, Dunham can manage to survive one to two more Best Actress nods under her belt regardless of the show’s reception. And then there’s forever the bridesmaid Amy Poehler. At this point, Poehler had done everything to win the Emmy, but voters aren’t really responding to these type of Michael Schur characters (I mean hello Steve fucking Carell). In the past, she already submitted a two parter, achieved a nod when her show is a Series nominee, got Writing and Acting nod the same year and yet none of those still worked. So I guess a nomination would suffice again this year. Then this year’s newbie is filled by Taylor Schilling as the core character from the huge ensemble of Orange is the New Black. That last spot I can see can go to Mindy Kaling (who’s a past nominee for Writing) and her announcing the Emmy nods might be an obvious indicator of that, but I guess I wouldn’t just underestimate Chuck Lorre at this point so I’m going with Mom‘s Anna Faris for the last slot.

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:

Comedy Series

• The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
• Brooklyn Nine Nine (NBC)
• Louie (FX)
• Modern Family (ABC)
• Orange is the New Black (Netflix)
• Veep (HBO)

Seventh nominee: Girls (HBO)

And we’re here at the final stretch. Okay let’s get the obvious ones out of the way. Modern Family is soooo getting in so there’s Slot 1. Veep is easily making it for Round 3 so there’s Slot 2. Orange is the new Black is too big to ignore that if there’s only one room for a newbie here, that would be it. So there goes Slot 3. Louie’s msot recent season has been more dramatic than comedic, but it has the critics rallying up behind it that it’s gonna be surprising if it suddenly missed after finally penetrating last year’s line up. And then there’s the fourth slot. The Big Bang Theory hasn’t achieved the same critical and commercial buzz it had last year (and yet it was used to no avail since they did not win Series), so even if their chances somehow weakened, a series nod is still manageable. Now there’s five slots already.  As for that sixth slot, it starts to get tricky. On one hand, there’s Brooklyn Nine Nine a.k.a Fox’s only contender in this category. On its side, it’s a freshman show who has some sort of buzz, it’s Fox’s #1 priority here, and it’s a traditional comedy from a broadcast network. However, it’s ratings aren’t something to write home about, it doesn’t have a Tina Fey or an Alec Baldwin in its side, and that Orange is the more buzzed freshman show. Then on the other, there’s Girls. On its hit stride, voters can easily just vote the recurring nominees from last year’s batch and it can easily make it, it’s still getting awards and mentions, and its third season has been some sort of a creative resurgence from critics and fans alike. But then again, it’s not HBO’s priority, and all its buzz has dwindled so fast it’s not even the watercooler show of the season nor of this line up. Of course with the new 2% rule, there’s a possibility that we might get seven nominees in the end, but let’s stick to the current six line up. Now who do I think gets in that coveted last slot. I guess I’m going with Brooklyn Nine Nine by a hair over Girls. I think there’s more buzz for the former and traditional comedy shows still has their hold in this category despite the slow HBO dominance the past few years. Plus, the shelf life for female-led/centric shows are just two seasons and they easily drop them off. Sure Sex and the City is an exception, but Ally McBeal and Glee were lucky enough to get two nods while the likes of Desperate Housewives and ugly Betty have to settle for their only pilot season series nods. So yeah, i’m going with Brooklyn in this one.

Now there you have it. Do you think Allison Janney is finally making that Emmy comeback? Will Shameless shamelessly moving to the comedy category finally catch another acting nod aside from Joan Cusack? And how many Modern Family actors can survive this season? Tomorrow, the last part as we tackle the drama categories! Thanks for reading!

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series   Leave a comment

supp actress comedy

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Doris Roberts, “Everybody Loves Raymond[CORRECT]
2006:
Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl[WRONG]
2007:
Jamie Pressly, “My Name is Earl[CORRECT]
2008:
Vanessa Williams, “Ugly Betty[WRONG]
2009:
Kristin Chenoweth, “Pushing Daisies[CORRECT]
2010:
Jane Lynch, “Glee[CORRECT]
2011:
Jane Lynch, “Glee[WRONG]
2012:
Kathryn Joosten “Desperate Housewives” [WRONG]

After supporting actor in a comedy series, let’s give the moment to the ladies now by tackling their counterparts: comedy’s supporting actresses. This year, we have a boatload of nominees here, as this category expanded to seven. And despite that, Arrested Development’s Jessica Walter still find herself with no nomination for the show’s fourth season. Poor Lucille.

Anyway, let’s begin with the cable ladies. Merritt Wever picked up a consecutive nod for her performance in Nurse Jackie. Truth be told, this late surge of love for her is something that I did not see coming at all. If anything, this would have made more sense during the show’s first season when the show was nominated for the top award. In her episode Teachable Moments, she wasn’t given much to do, and while she has the occasional snarks here and there, she’s relegated to a weak and unmemorable storyline.

Over at HBO, Anna Chlumsky is another of those who received a surprising nod. With the entire false buzz regarding her back and forth change of submission, it’s nice to see her stick with First Response. In this episode, she gets crazier than usual, as she refuses to let loose when Veep Meyer was in for an interview by Alison Janney’s character. However, this episode appeals more to those actual fans of the show.

Then we have a series of returning kids. Not only that, but they share the same first name as well. First, you have Jane Krakowski who submitted the hour long submission. While this gave her double screentime, it doesn’t put her to much advantage as compared to the Modern Family women who have, unintentionally, two submissions each. To be fair though, her song at the end of her long episode is one that will certainly bring votes her way.

After a year of snub, 2010 winner Jane Lynch is also back in contention. Sadly for her, she has been relegated to near guest-star status in terms of exposure in the show this season. In her episode Feuds though, we get to see her channel her inner Nicki Minaj with her Starship numbers with complete costume, wigs, and shiny lights to boot. Aside from that though, there’s nothing left for her submission to think that it runs for 42 minutes. Not her fault though.

Sofia Vergara has a reputation of a bad Emmy submitter. It all started when she submitted Not In My House in 2010, and it even solidified when she followed it with Slow Down Your Neighbors the following year. To her credit though, she made stronger choices since then such as her Tableau Vivant last year, and this year’s Yard Sale. In this episode, she gets to show some flashback about her beauty pageant years and perform puppetry at the end of her episode. Her only battle though is that the Emmys love her co-star better, so she can play second fiddle to her again.

Speaking of co-star, Julie Bowen is aiming for a three-peat this year. After submitting My Hero, it’s pretty clear that her team already mastered the art of finding what Emmy voters find in her character. In this episode, she has the heart and the laughs. And she is (unintentionally) helped once again by co-star Vergara’s tape. While I wouldn’t hate Julie Bowen just because she’s the one who keeps on winning here, she can be the Brad Garrett to Sofia Vergara’s Peter Boyle.

Lastly, there’s The Big Bang Theory’s Mayim Bialik. After being open last year that it was not her choice for a submission and that the networks opted for her, it seemed more in-synch with her this year, as she gets to pretend that she’s sick in her submission The Fish Guts Displacement. This episode is a showcase for her, though I don’t think it’s as strong as it perceived to be. She might benefit from having majority of her scenes interacting with Jim Parsons though, and she does a lot of physical comedy here.

As for who’s gonna win here, while I don’t think it’s out of the realm to see Sofia Vergara or Mayim Bialik pull a win here, it ultimately boils down to Julie Bowen for a three-peat or Jane Krakowski as the show’s farewell acting win ala Megan Mullally in 2006. For the meantime, I don’t see a slowdown of MF domination in the supporting categories, so I’ll be predicting Julie Bowen instead.

Prediction: Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
Runner-Up: Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock

Full Rankings:
1. Julie Bowen, “Modern Family
2. Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock
3. Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family
4.Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory”
5. Anna Chlumsky, “Veep
6. Merritt Wever, “Nurse Jackie
7. Jane Lynch, “Glee

To see other Emmy predictions, you can see them here.

Meanwhile, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory” (The Shiny Trinket Maneuver)
• Julie Bowen, “Modern Family” (Go Bullfrogs)
• Kathryn Joosten, “Desperate Housewives” (Finishing the Hat)
• Sofia Vergara, “Modern Family” (Tableau Vivant)
• Merritt Wever “Nurse Jackie” (One Armed Jacks)
• Kristin Wiig, “Saturday Night Live” (Host: Mick Jagger)

The third Big Bang Theory cast member who reaped an Emmy nom, Mayim Bialik is also the first female member of the cast to do so. I really think that she what it takes to win this; however, her episode submission is what lets her down. She predictably chose to go with the “tiara” episode, and while that is one of the funniest and most memorable moments of the season, the “scene” is too short enough to stand on its own and give her the Emmy. As a matter of fact, the scene is only two minutes short, and aside from one scene in the beginning, she’s missing in the whole episode. I call this is as a case of wrong submission ruining your Emmy chances. Current winner Julie Bowen is up for another chance to take a consecutive win in this category. After all, her submission involves her being drunk and fun, something that Emmy has rewarded with Emmys in the past. However, it’s not as slam dunk as her chances last year where she got two winning tapes that shows her range. In Sofia Vergara’s episode, she comes off as whiny and unlikable, and I don’t think that will gain her more votes in this category. While I’m fine with a repeat win for her, it seems she’s helping returning Vergara the favor of helping her win the Emmy this year. This one seems more of a tribute nom for Kathryn Joosten after her untimely death earlier this year; however, I don’t think it’s an easy win for her as some perceive. since we’ve seen time and again how nomination is the reward for those posthumous nominations. But then again, she’s Kathryn Joosten and this nominated role has already won twice before. Episode wise, she gets a winning trial scene where she spoke of friendship that she had at Wisteria Lane, and aside from that, she has her death scene in the end. It’s definitely the key to her win, and I think that’s where Emmy voters will go. Sofia Vergara has a history of being a bad submitter at the Emmys. During the first season, instead of submitting Coal Digger, she went with Not in My House. Last year, instead of going with Unplugged, she submitted Slow Down Your Neighbors. However, this year, it seems like an intervention was finally done and she submitted Tableau Vivant which highlighted her being jealous of Jay’s close friend. This, together with Julie Bowen’s submission, might finally be the year where she’s really in competition. Merritt Weveris a surprise nod this year considering she gets in while the likes of Jane Krakowski, Betty White, and Cloris Leahman were perceived as likelier nominees. However, her nomination should have come sooner than this year, as she’s giving Emmy worthy performances week in and week out in Nurse Jackie. In her submission, she’s looking for a new roommate, until Jackie decided to invite her to live in with her as she dances in the kitchen. I admit, there’s really not a laugh out loud scene in her submission, but every now and then, we see a winner that caters more on the emotion rather than the laughs (Cynthia Nixon, Jean Smart), and Wever fits the bill. Let’s not even pretend that the final graduation scene in the season finale will seal the deal for Kristin Wiig. After all, Emmys have proven time and again that they do not care if this is your last bid for the Emmy (Steve Carell, Jane Kaczmarek, Angela Lansbury anyone?). However, that’s just the icing on the cake for Wiig, as she delivers some of her funniest skits in the Mick Jagger episode. She was also present in all the skits in her episode, and probably has the longest screentime in terms of submitted tapes. That, plus her new A-list status after the Oscar nomination this February can propel Wiig to an Emmy win.

This one is really a difficult category to assess; the secret lies to what the type of performance voters are looking for. This year, I’m going with Academy’s favorite Kathryn Joosten though running on her heels is Kristen Wiig who can easily win this trophy as well.
Prediction: Kathryn Joosten, “Desperate Housewives
Dark Horse: Kristin Wiig, “Saturday Night Live

Complete Rankings:
1. Joosten
2. Wiig
3. Vergara
4. Bowen
5. Wever
6. Bialik