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67th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama guest actor

After the guest ladies of comedy, we’re moving halfway into our guest acting Emmy predictions and move to the drama guest actors for this year. With two consecutive wins from Scandal (for Dan Bucatinsky and Joe Morton), it’s a surprise that Courtney B. Vance suddenly missed the boat even for a nomination. If anything, the Emmys really know how to pull off those surprising nominations and snubs.

Speaking of surprise, Orange is the New Black‘s Pablo Schreiber finally receives his Emmy nomination, albeit a season late for his turn as Officer Mendez a.k.a Pornstahcer. In his episode “40 Oz. of Furlough”, we see Schreiber coming back to the prison after his suspension. Schreiber’s opening scene is literally an entrance seeing that infamous pornstache leading the way. However, in an hour long episode, he only appears in three scenes (all not more than a minute). To be fair, in a short span of minutes, he had shown classic Mendez with a range in his final scene, but that scene (and his nomination) is a year late.

Oscar Best Actor F. Murray Abraham receives his very first Emmy nomination for his role as CIA Agent Dar Adal in Homeland. Submitting the season finale “Long Time Coming”, Abraham’s storyline dealt with him building an arrangement with Saul in order to accomplish the mission he had with Haqqani. Abraham’s scenes were mostly talking pieces both with Claire Danes and Mandy Patinkin’s characters, and I can see this appealing to a certain batch of voters.It’s not that much of a slam dunk episode though but a competitive enough given this race,

On the other hand, Beau Bridges, receiving his second consecutive nomination playing the role of Barton Scully in Masters of Sex, submitted season opener “Parallax.” It’s an emotional episode all around, particularly given his character undergoing electroshock therapy to cure his homophobia. It also features an encounter with his wife (Guest Actress nominee Allison Janney) facing their marital problems. The cherry on top of the cake is his final scene where he attempted to hang himself. This is baity stuff all throughout and his loss last year certainly helps his chances this time around.

After missing last year’s race (due to not being submitted by the show), Michael J. Fox is back for his fourth nomination as Louis Canning for The Good Wife. Up to now, it still is a surprise that this performance, let alone his this character, hasn’t received a win yet. This year he went with the episode “Red Zone”, where his character’s worsening health condition was on full display. The episode ends with him talking to Alicia and giving her final words in the event that he dies. It’s a touching tape, no doubt about that, but one wonders if the character is seriously touching or just one of Canning’s antics.

One of perennial Emmy favorites Alan Alda is back in the race this year playing the character of Alan Fitch in The Blacklist. This is his first drama acting nomination since his victory in the Supporting Actor race in 2006 for The West Wing. His tape “The Decembrist” probably contains the most memorable scene in this category combined as it had his character exploding — literally, that is — on screen. Most of his scenes had him  with a bomb attached on his neck as he gets empathetic and emotional about his impending demise. He gets confrontation scenes, drama scenes, and confession scenes in it which coul be added by the strength of his name.

Last year, I predicted House of Cards’ Reg E. Cathey for the win because of his great tape submission as Freddy Hayes. Sadly, the same can’t be said this year because despite having a decent enough closing scene in his tape “Chapter 34”, it’s not showy enough. Surely, we root for the character of Freddy, but that wouldn’t be enough to net a win this time around.

I think the race can be boiled down between the character who died (Alan Alda) and the character who tried to die in his episode (Beau Bridges). Both are multiple Emmy winners, both have great tapes, and both have the road to a win. Bridges can be helped by the fact that he was nominated last year as well, and while they have already rewarded on-screen partner Allison Janney, he has yet to win for it. However, this is also the last time to reward Alda’s character (matched with a really “explosive” exit), so I’ll give the edge to him.

Prediction: Alan Alda, “The Blacklist”
Alternate: Beau Bridges, “Masters of Sex

Full Rankings:
01. Alan Alda, “The Blacklist”
02. Beau Bridges, “Masters of Sex
03. Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife
04. F. Murray Abraham, “Homeland
05. Pablo Schreiber “Orange is the New Black
06. Reg E. Cathey, “House of Cards”

You can check my other 2015 Emmy prediction analysis here.

For more Emmy talk, you can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series   Leave a comment

drama guest actor

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Martin Landau, “Without a Trace[WRONG]
2006:
Christian Clemenson, “Boston Legal[CORRECT]
2007:
David Morse, “House[WRONG]
2008:
Glynn Turmann, “In Treatment[CORRECT]
2009:
Michael J. Fox, “Rescue Me[CORRECT]
2010:
John Lithgow, “Dexter [CORRECT]
2011:
Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife[WRONG]
2012:
Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife” [WRONG]

It’s now time to complete the male and drama guest acting nods, so it’s pretty obvious that what I’ll discuss next is Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series. For this year, notable snubs include two time previous nominee Dylan Baker in his turn for The Good Wife, multiple Emmy winner Ray Romano for Parenthood, and another year for Matthew Perry missing also for The Good Wife. Let’s begin!

Speaking of The Good Wife, despite many snubs, two actors from the show still made it in for this year. First, there’s three time nominee Michael J. Fox. Among his past three submissions, I think this one had him in his longest exposure.  In his episode submission Boom De Yah Da, not only will we see a glimpse of his wife, but it shows his character help someone block the case handled by arch nemesis Alicia Florrick. Granted it’s not the nicest deed we’ve seen from Louis, but that did not prevent them from nominating him before.

As for the other Good Wife actor, Nathan Lane gets his second guest acting nomination this year for his role as Clarke Hayden. He submits the season opener I Fought the Law which was the first time we’ve seen him on the show. However, this episode did not give him anything to do aside from roaming and appearing in the crowd, and I don’t think it will do him any favors. He appears in co-star Michael J. Fox’s tape, but they have no scene together, so it won’t have any bearing on their chances.

Now Mad Men also gets two of its actors in this category. After missing last year, Robert Morse is back for another shot at the win. Just when you thought they finally dropped him for good, he comes back roaring. Sadly for him, he still wasn’t given much to do, and his tape For Immediate Release proved it. He was on it for five minutes tops, and that’s mostly comprised of just reacting to his co-stars or sitting in a chair.

Aside from Morse, Harry Hamlin also picked up a nod for Mad Men. As opposed to Morse, Hamlin actually gets a good tape with A Tale of Two Cities, we see Jim Cutler work on the renaming of the agency. He gets confrontational scenes, some shoutings, and a decent amount of screentime in his episode.

Then we have Homeland‘s first nod in this category with Rupert Friend nominated. Like everyone else, it’s wise of him to submit Q&A as his episode. Not only is this the show’s most acclaimed episode this season, he also has a hefty amount of moments in it. If the voters love the show (and episode) so much, he can contend for the win. But sometimes, Emmys has a thign against good looking actors, and Friend can easily be a victim of that.

Lastly, there’s Dan Bucatinsky as the first male nominee from Scandal. While one can argue that Scandal is the weakest show here, as it is bordering on soap opera, what’s fantastic about it is he will probably have the most memorable and over the top scene with his confrontation with his partner. He also gets a court scene that involves him testifying to something. With previous winners here winning from In Treatment to Harry’s Law, it doesn’t need for a nominee to be in a Drama Series nod to get recognized here.

There really is no serious frontrunner in this category. While I predicted Michael J. Fox the past two years, I don’t think I’ll go with him for the third time (now watch him win this year!). Harry Hamlin is an 80s TV star who has notable credits under his name and one can see him as overdue for an Emmy win. With that said, I’ll go with Rupert Friend to get carried away with the Homeland love, as Q&A is one of the defining episodes of the past Emmy season. If not him, then watch out for Dan Bucatinsky to win here for a scene stealing episode among his contemporaries.

Prediction: Rupert Friend, Homeland
Runner-Up: Dan Bucatinsky, Scandal

Full Rankings:
1. Rupert Friend, Homeland
2. Dan Bucatinsky, Scandal
3. Harry Hamlin, Mad Men
4. Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife
5. Nathan Lane, The Good Wife
6. Robert Morse, Mad Men

To check out other Emmy predictions, simply click here.

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series 2012   1 comment

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Dylan Baker, “The Good Wife” (Marthas and Caitlins)
• Jeremy Davies, “Justified” (Coalition)
• Ben Feldman “Mad Men” (Dark Shadows)
• Michael J. Fox, “The Good Wife” (Parenting Made Easy)
• Mark Margolis, “Breaking Bad” (Face Off)
• Jason Ritter, “Parenthood” (Politics)

I find this group of nominees even better than my prediction ones with surprise deserving nods overall the expected ones. Dylan Baker, who was previously nominated two years ago for the same role, comes back with another nomination and this year, he gets a very good episode that shows his range and certainly leaves impact to voters. Certainly, he should be The Good Wife star that’s getting all the buzz in this category. Jeremy Davies is also another comeback nominee, and while I find his last year’s submission better than this year, he still gets a good amount of screentime with some highlights in his submitted episode; however, with everything that’s going in his episode, it’s hard for his arc to stand out overall. Ben Feldman replaces perennial nominee Robert Morse as mad Men’s nomination in this category, and while he shines in his elevator scene in the end with Hamm, he’s pretty much scattered all over the episode not gaining enough momentum to own it the way other nominees do. It is very much arguable if this is Michael J. Fox‘s best episode of the season, but his somewhat frontrunner status baffles me once you watch his submission. Julianna Margulies owned this episode, and the last scene with her certainly did not leave enough impact to bring it all the way to the Emmy podium. This made me remember how Matthew Perry was snubbed of a nomination this year, because Fox clearly made it solely on name basis. Mark Margolis is pretty much wise with his submitted episode, as it is an impressive and buzzed about Breaking Bad episode, and he was riveting and memorable in his submission. This is the type of performance that sticks with voters after seeing all episodes. Lastly, Jason Ritter manages a surprise nod, and his storyline is vital to the episode, but his role also benefits from a season arc judgment than a single episode one. 

I reiterate that I’m very much worried that Fox is the most buzzed nominee, and it saddens me if eh takes the plum. I’m torn between Dylan Baker and Mark Margolis as who to choose since it occurs to me that their episodes will stick to voters the most. However, since Baker is a returning nominee for a show that the Academy seems to recognize the most for acting, I’d predict Baker by a hair over Margolis.

Prediction: Dylan Baker, “The Good Wife”
Spoiler: Mark Margolis, “Breaking Bad”

Complete Rankings:
1. Baker
2. Margolis
3. Davies
4. Fox
5. Feldman
6. Ritter

ANALYSIS: Emmy Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series 2012   Leave a comment

I better start these posts, so I cna make it before the Emmy ceremony next month. Here we go with the first category for the year:

EPISODE SUBMISSIONS:

• Will Arnett, “30 Rock” (Idiots Are People, Part Three)
• Bobby Cannavale, “Nurse Jackie” (Disneyland Sucks)
• Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live” (Host: Jimmy Fallon)
• Michael J. Fox, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Larry vs. Michael J Fox)
• Jon Hamm, “30 Rock” (Live From Studio 6H)
• Greg Kinnear, “Modern Family” (Me? Jealous?)

This is a pretty safe group of nominees combining expected newbies and returning nominees for the Comedy Guest Actor category this year. Bobby Cannavale got a surprising nod for the Nurse Jackie’s fourth season, and since his guest stint is season-long, it does not give him any favors when they’re required to submit a single tape only. In “Disneyland Sucks“, while he gets longer scenes that were indeed funny, it does not match the material by all the other nominees. Voters tend to like Will Arnett in 30 Rock so much, since they’ve nominated it for the fourth time already, and while he gets a better tape this year via “Idiots Are People, Part Three“, it does not scream Emmy winning, and this category is not kind enough to overdue nominees. Greg Kinnear‘s guest stint on Modern Family resulted to a consecutive Emmy nom for him. He doesn’t do much in his tape, and his role is pretty reactionary though if voters find the whole situation funny, that’s the only way I see them eliciting votes. Another 30 Rock star who got nominated here is Jon Hamm who was already nominated here two times in 2009 and 2010. In his tape “Live From Studio 6H”, he gets to play various characters including a black face actor and a misogynist news anchor. He gets to do a lot of physical comedy and I can see this clicking to voters. Michael J. Fox earns both comedic and dramatic guest acting nominations this year, and he has a pretty good chance of winning at both. For comedy, his nomination comes from Curb Your Enthusiasm, and the season finale episode “Larry vs. Michael J. Fox“, we saw him playing arch nemesis to Larry David outwitting each other. The last nominee is Jimmy Fallon going back and hosting Saturday Night Live; a show he was once a part of. The chemistry was there and the material was handled smoothly in one of the best episodes of the season.

In the end, I see it as a race between Fox and Fallon, but since Fallon was in every skit of his submitted episode, I give him the edge and my prediction in this category. I won’t be surprised if Fox pulls the win though, but I’m pretty confident with Fallon.

Prediction: Jimmy Fallon, “Saturday Night Live”
Spoiler: Michael J. Fox, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”

Complete Rankings:
1. Fallon
2. Fox
3. Hamm
4. Kinnear
5. Arnett
6. Cannavale