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65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie   Leave a comment

actress miniseries

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: S. Epatha Merkerson, “Lackawanna Blues[CORRECT]
2006:
Helen Mirren, “Elizabeth I[CORRECT]
2007:
Helen Mirren, “Prime Suspect: Final Act[CORRECT]
2008:
Judi Dench, “Cranford: Masterpiece[WRONG]
2009:
Drew Barrymore, “Grey Gardens[WRONG]
2010:
Claire Danes, “Temple Grandin[CORRECT]
2011:
Kate Winslet, “Mildred Pierce[CORRECT]
2012:
Julianne Moore, “Game Change” [CORRECT]

And here’s the final cap on the longform acting categories: the coveted Best Actress category. The last three years have been easy wins that’s why it’s quite fun that we have some sort of a competition this year. But first, let’s give a moment to recognize those who were snubbed.  Despite scoring in two other acting nods, Golden Globe nominee Sienna Miller was snubbed for her work in The Girl, as well as Rebecca Hall in Parade’s End. HBO wasn’t powerful enough to put the pair of Oscar nominated (and winning) actresses in Mary and Martha (Brenda Blethyn and Hilary Swank) as well.

Last year’s supporting actress winner Jessica Lange moves to the Lead category now after the sophomore season of American Horror Story: Asylum. While she wasn’t able to win any precursors earlier this year, she hasn’t skipped a beat by picking up nominations from the Golden Globes, SAGs, and the BFCA Critics Choice for TV Awards for her performance as Sister Jude.

Sigourney Weaver is due for any award for anything, so I thought this would have been the avenue to reward her. To be fair, she commanded the short lived series Political Animals and served as the show’s core base, and in any weak year, this would have been a sure winner. Unfortunately for her, this year has been anything but weak in this category.

Elisabeth Moss picked up a second nod for this year, thanks to her lead performance in Jane Campion’s Top of the Lake. This is the perfect consolation to Moss if voters want to reward her with an Emmy already after years of losses for playing Peggy on Mad Men. After all, she already earned a BFCA CCTV in the same category last July. It’s also a different performance from her usual nominated ones, so it shows her range and versatility as an actress.

Then we have Laura Linney. Prior to her 2011 loss to Melissa McCarthy, Linney actually has a perfect Emmy track record reaping in three wins in the past with two victories in this category for 2002’s Wild Iris and 2008’s John Adams. If anything, she’s very competitive here seeing she’s 2/2 for her. On the flip side, her only loss (in Comedy Lead Actress) is for the same role she’s contending now. So odds are, it’s really up in the air when it comes to her actual chances. One thing I’m certain of is that if anybody can pull that upset, it’s definitely her.

Lastly, we have Dame Helen Mirren. Like Linney, Mirren is a force to be reckoned with in this category, as she’s the most rewarded actress here with four wins in the past in 1996, 1999, 2006, and 2007 and having 10 nominations here altogether. With that said, one can count her out for this year as she’s clearly a filler nominee for an HBO movie that stars two big movie stars. If anything, she’s the only one we can safely count here.

I really have no idea on who will win here, so you can ask me and I’ll probably change my answer every other day. However, I’m convinced that all voters will not be watching the whole seasons of American Horror Story: Asylum and Top of the Lake, but it’s between Jessica Lange and Elisabeth Moss. The only deciding factor I have is that Lange was a tour de force by the start of the season while Moss’ better episodes come in the latter part of the series. That plus the fact that voters are probably aware that Lange has won for that horror show and they will continue to vote for her. The only thing on Moss’ favor is if they find her overdue and want to give her a win already. I’d say Lange has the upperhand, but never disregard Elisabeth Moss or a possible upset from Laura Linney here.

Prediction: Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum”
Runner-Up: Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

Full Rankings:
1. Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum”
2. Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
3. Laura Linney, The Big C: Hereafter”
4. Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals
5. Helen Mirren, Phil Spector

To check out other Emmy predictions, you can check them here.

If you like, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

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65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Miniseries or Movie   Leave a comment

movie miniseries

 

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Warm Springs[CORRECT] and “Empire Falls[WRONG]
2006:
The Girl in the Cafe[CORRECT] and “Elizabeth I[CORRECT]
2007:
Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee[CORRECT] and “Prime Suspect: Final Act[WRONG]
2008:
Recount[CORRECT] and “John Adams[CORRECT]
2009:
Grey Gardens[CORRECT] and “Generation Kill[WRONG]
2010:
You Don’t Know Jack[WRONG] and “The Pacific[CORRECT]
2011:
Downton Abbey[CORRECT]
2012:
Game Change” [CORRECT]

Now that we’re done with the three acting categories here (Haven’t made up my mind yet on who’ll win Lead Actress), it’s time to move on with the main program award by discussing the Best Movie or Miniseries category. It’s almost a moot to even tackle each category comprehensively, as there seems to be a clear winner here already. The Steven Soderbergh directed film Behind the Candelabra is obviously winning the top prize. With great reviews, a historic Cannes competition participation, and overwhelming reception, this is one of the easier to predict wins for the night. The closest runner-up I can come up with is Sundance Channel’s Top of the Lake which also received unanimously great reviews and probably the little contender that could.

As for the others, despite American Horror Story: Asylum dominating the nominations with a whooping 17(!) nods and topping all the other programs this year, it will clearly follow the path of its predecessor last year safely winning an acting award (or two). The mere fact that it continues to dominate the noms yet it can’t break through the directing AND writing categories speaks volumes about its actual support in the Academy. Phil Spector is the typical HBO filler category year like what Hemingway & Gellhorn was last year and You Don’t Know Jack was the year before. It contains two movie stars in lead roles, but doesn’t really have anything else in its corner.

After History’s history breaking ratings with Hatfields & McCoys last year, they continue to beat their own record in terms of ratings for miniseries, with The Bible this year. Sadly for them, the nomination for their achievement is their main reward seeing that it only got in two other categories. As for Political Animals, you can use the same analogy to Phil Spector, only replace HBO with USA.

As I’ve mentioned, it will be an easy win for Behind the Candelabra, and may I say deservedly so? J

Prediction: Behind the Candelabra
Runner-Up: Top of the Lake

Full Rankings:
1. “Behind the Candelabra
2. “Top of the Lake
3. “American Horror Story: Asylum
4. “Phil Spector
5. “Political Animals
6. “The Bible

If you want, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

65th Primetime Emmys: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie   Leave a comment

actor miniseries

It’s Emmy season!

Over the next few weeks, I’ll be posting my Emmy predictions in 23 different categories before we head on the actual ceremonies on September 22. And as always, we’ll tackle one category at a time, and this year will begin with Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie.

PAST PREDICTIONS:

2005: Geoffrey Rush, “The Life and Death of Peter Sellers[CORRECT]
2006:
Donald Sutherland, “Human Trafficking[WRONG]
2007:
Robert Duvall, “Broken Trail[CORRECT]
2008:
Paul Giammatti “John Adams[CORRECT]
2009:
Kevin Bacon, “Taking Chance[WRONG]
2010:
Al Pacino, “You Don’t Know Jack[CORRECT]
2011:
Edgar Ramirez, “Carlos[WRONG]
2012:
Kevin Costner, “Hatfields & McCoys” [CORRECT]

If there’s any indication that HBO dominates the Emmys, one does not need to look any further, as this category’s nominees were all from HBO produced films. Let’s start the discussion with the Cannes entry Behind the Candelabra. Playing renowned pianist Liberace, five time Emmy nominee Michael Douglas gets career best reviews for his physical transformation as the gay musician. With the rate of these reviews are going, it’s pretty easy to say he’s the frontrunner in this category. However, most of his screentime is shared with co-nominee and co-star Matt Damon who played Liberace’s lover Scott Thorson. While both are co-leads in the film, it’s easier to see that Douglas is the main star of the show and has the advantage over Damon.

As for Parade’s End‘s Benedict Cumberbatch, he’s the obvious weak link in this group, and his nod rooted from his movie star success of Star Trek during the nomination period. It must be noted though that this is his second consecutive nomination here, as he’s also nominated for Sherlock this year, so if there’s some left over love for that, then he can possible score more votes. Isn’t it unfair that Toby Jones always has to go for the lesser buzzed versions when he plays real life people such as his Capote performance in Infamous being released shortly after Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Oscar winning performance of the same character? The same can be applied again as his role as Alfred Hitchcock in The Girl has to contend in TV movies when the feature film Hitchcock was just released last year. Anyway, Jones was Hitchcock personified in his performance, but the total lack of interest over the TV movie definitely speaks about his chances.

Then there’s Al Pacino. Pacino is 2/2 in this category winning the first time for Angels in America in 2004 and then again for You Don’t Know Jack in 2010. For Phil Spector, he donned in the wigs and transformed into the main character and was given lots of baity scenes to work on. Plus they showered the TV movie with a lot of nominations as well.  If voters are not fond of Behind the Candelabra, I can see them going for Pacino.

With that said, I still think that it’s Michael Douglas’ to lose. He’s a five time Emmy nominee who hasn’t won any Emmy yet (and his first nomination was 39 years ago) while getting career best reviews for this performance. He also gets to play a “challenging” role which involved lots of physical transformations in it. If not him, you can count Matt Damon to win his first Emmy though. Either way, Behind the Candelabra will score a win in this category.

Prediction: Michael Douglas, “Behind the Candelabra
Runner-Up: Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra

Final Rankings:
1. Michael Douglas, “Behind the Candelabra
2. Matt Damon, “Behind the Candelabra
3. Al Pacino, “Phil Spector
4. Toby Jones, “The Girl
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, “Parade’s End

You can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl