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57th Grammy Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

On Sunday (Monday morning here in Manila), music’s biggest night is about to happen. Well that’s an exaggeration of some sort truth be told, but hey despite what we rant about the Grammys 100+ categories or how there are more performances than awards every single year, we still give them a free pass when they give us moments like that of Daft Punk’s cool performance that had everyone bopping, or the reggae tribute two years ago with Sting, Bruno Mars, and Rihanna. So before we watch this year’s telecast that will feature performances from Kanye West, Rihanna, and Sir Paul McCartney to the Selma tribute of John Legend, Beyonce, and Common, we predict those who will be ending the night as Grammy winners in nine different fields.

roty

RECORD OF THE YEAR:
Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX, “Fancy”
Sia, “Chandelier”
Sam Smith, “Stay With Me (Darkchild Version)”
Taylor Swift, “Shake It Off”
Meghan Trainor, “All About That Bass”

PREDICTION: “Shake It Off” (Taylor Swift) Shake It Off doesn’t really fit the mold of a ROTY winner, but then again this is a pretty weak lineup. I don’t see Fancy or All About That Bass winning this and Chandelier is more of a SOTY mold. You know we’re bound to get a Taylor ROTY now or in the future right? So let’s just keep this one off the Grammy’s bucket list already.

ALTERNATE: “Stay With Me (Darkchild Version)”  (Sam Smith) I don’t know if the Darkchild version will confuse voters or not, but if they love Sam Smith and will shower him with Grammys on that night, then expect at least an Adele type of winning for this ballad.

aoty

ALBUM OF THE YEAR:
“Morning Phase”, Beck
“Beyonce”, Beyonce
“X”, Ed Sheeran
“In the Lonely Hour”, Sam Smith
“GIRL”, Pharrell Williams

PREDICTION: Beyonce, “Beyonce” This whole Beyonce era has been life-giving in so many ways that I think this is the perfect coronation night for Grammy’s most-nominated woman.

ALTERNATE: Beck, “Morning Phase” But hold on that weave, Bey. Sometimes, not because you’re the biggest artist means you’re taking the biggest award easily (see Arcade Fire over Eminem in 2010?). Beck has the respect and the critics to back him up. Either way, we’re getting a fantastic winner with these two.

soty

SONG OF THE YEAR
“All About That Bass,” (Meghan Trainor)
“Chandelier,” (Sia)
“Shake It Off,” (Taylor Swift)
“Stay with Me,” (Sam Smith)
“Take Me To Church,” (Hozier)

PREDICTION: Chandelier (Sia). I think Sia becoming a go-to songwriter of the biggest popstars gives her a bit of an advantage here. And not to discredit the song itself, it’s an equally deserving SOTY material.

ALTERNATE: Stay with Me (Sam Smith). That said, Stay with Me is such a Grammy catnip here that I won’t be surprised if they go with the straight ballad in this group.

bna

BEST NEW ARTIST
Iggy Azalea
Bastille
Brandy Clark
HAIM
Sam Smith

PREDICTION: Sam Smith. They could have mailed him the actual Grammy since the announcement for all I know.

ALTERNATE: Brandy Clark. Never underestimate the country bloc especially someone who has been churning out hits for some of the biggest country names right now.

POP FIELD:

pop

POP SOLO PERFORMANCE:
John Legend, “All of Me (Live Version)”
Sia, “Chandelier”
Sam Smith, “Stay With Me”
Taylor Swift, “Shake It Off”
Pharrell Williams, “Happy (Live Version)”

This one would be an easy win for Sam Smith regardless if he goes home with many Grammys or not. Maybe he’s shoo-in category after Best New Artist. Watch out for Oscar nominee John Legend though in one of the year’s biggest hits and vocal venues.

PREDICTION: “Stay with Me” (Sam Smith)
ALTERNATE: “All of Me (Live Version)” (John Legend)

POP PERFORMANCE BY A DUO OR GROUP:
Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX, “Fancy”
Coldplay, “A Sky Full of Stars”
A Great Big World and Christina Aguilera, “Say Something”
Jessie J, Ariana Grande, and Nicki Minaj, “Bang Bang”
Katy Perry feat. Juicy J, “Dark Horse”

What an absurd category. It seems like except for Bang Bang, you can make a case for any of these songs. Fancy has the General Field nomination, but somehow it’s not a guarantee here. Let’s just go with the AC catnip here of Say Something.

PREDICTION: “Say Something” (A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera)
ALTERNATE: “Fancy” (Iggy Azalea ft. Chrali XCX)

POP VOCAL ALBUM:
Coldplay, Ghost Stories
Miley Cyrus, Bangerz
Ariana Grande, My Everything
Katy PerryPrism
Ed Sheeran, x
Sam Smith, In the Lonely Hour

With two Album of the Year nominees here, it’s definitely between these two Brits. I give the advantage to Ed Sheeran though, as I see it is a consolation for his great year. Plus you know they’re dying to reward him with a Grammy already.

PREDICTION: “X” (Ed Sheeran)
ALTERNATE: “In the Lonely Hour” (Sam Smith)

TRADITIONAL POP ALBUM:
Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga, Cheek to Cheek
Annie Lennox, Nostalgia
Barry Manilow, Night Songs
Johnny Mathis, Sending You a Little Christmas
Barbra Streisand, Partners

This one’s a bit tricky. The easiest name-checking would definitely be Bennett and Gags especially since Bennett is a regular winner here. But don’t underestimate Barbra Streisand’s strong narrative on her successful comeback album. I can see this one getting really close.

PREDICTION: “Cheek to Cheeck” (Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga)
ALTERNATE: “Partners” (Barbra Streisand)

DANCE/ELECTRONICA FIELD

dance recording

DANCE RECORDING
“Never Say Never,” Basement Jaxx
“Rather Be,” Clean Bandit featuring Jess Glynne
“F For You,” Disclosure featuring Mary J. Blige
“I Got U,” Duke Dumont featuring Jax Jones
“Faded,” Zhu

Again, this one is a two-way race. Rather Be is the biggest hit in the lineup, but F for You has the name recognition. I give the slight edge to Rather Be,

PREDICTION: “Rather Be” (Clean Bandit feat. Jess Glynne)
ALTERNATE: “F For You” (Disclosure feat. Mary J. Blige)

dance electronica album

DANCE ELECTRONICA ALBUM
“Syro”, Aphex Twin
“while(1<2)”, deadmau5
“Nabuma Rubberband”, Little Dragon
“Do It Again”, Royksopp & Robyn
“Damage Control”, Matt Zo

PREDICTION: “Syro” (Aphex Twin)
ALTERNATE: “while(1<2)” (deadmau5)

ROCK AND ALTERNATIVE FIELD

rock alternative

ROCK PERFORMANCE:
“Gimme Something Good”, Ryan Adams
“Do I Wanna Know?”, Arctic Monkeys
“Blue Moon”, Beck
“Fever”, The Black Keys
“Lazaretto”, Jack White

The logical choice is Beck, but if they’ll spread the wealth, this is the place where I can see them giving the win to another contender via Arctic Monkeys.

PREDICTION: “Do I Wanna Know?” (Arctic Monkeys)
ALTERNATE: “Blue Moon” (Beck)

ROCK SONG:
Paramore, “Ain’t It Fun”
Beck, “Blue Moon”
The Black Keys, “Fever”
Ryan Adams, “Gimme Something Good”
Jack White, “Lazaretto”

This one is an easy Beck win though regardless of competing against other familiar names and pop(!) hits.

PREDICTION: “Blue Moon” (Beck)
ALTERNATE: “Lazaretto” (Jack White)

ROCK ALBUM:
Ryan Adams, Ryan Adam
Beck, Morning Phase
The Black Keys, Turn Blue
Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, Hypnotic Eye
U2, Songs of Innocence

’tis a part of the Beck’s deserved Rock field sweep, so there ‘ya go.

PREDICTION: “Morning Phase” (Beck)
ALTERNATE: “Songs of Innocence” (U2)

ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM:
“This is All Yours”, alt-J
“Reflektor”, Arcade Fire
“Melophobia”, Cage the Elephant
“St. Vincent”, St. Vincent
“Lazaretto”, Jack White

St. Vincent has the most critical backing in this group, but I think that would be put into the sidelines when competing against two favorites. Thus, I gave the edge to Jack White here.

PREDICTION: “Lazaretto” (Jack White)
ALTERNATE: “Reflektor” (Arcade Fire)

R&B FIELD

rnb

R&B PERFORMANCE
“Drunk In Love,” Beyoncé featuring Jay Z
“New Flame,” Chris Brown featuring Usher & Rick Ross
“It’s Your World,” Jennifer Hudson featuring R. Kelly
“Like This,” Ledisi
“Good Kisser,” Usher

Bey and Jay easily.

PREDICTION: “Drunk in Love” (Beyonce feat. Jay-Z)
ALTERNATE: “Good Kisser” (Usher)

TRADITIONAL R&B PERFORMANCE:
“As,” Marsha Ambrosius & Anthony Hamilton
“I.R.S,” Angie Fisher
“Jesus Children,” Robert Glasper Experiment feat. Lalah Hathaway & Malcolm Jamal Warner
“Nobody,” Kem
“Hold Up (Wait a Minute),” Antonique Smith

Robert Glasper pulled off an upset two years ago, so he’s definitely on the radar. Add the fact that Lalah also did last year, so maybe this is one underrated powerful collab?

PREDICTION: “Jesus Children” (Robert Glasper Experiment feat. Lalah Hathaway & Malcolm Jamal Warner)
ALTERNATE: “As” (Marsha Ambrosius & Anthony Hamilton)

R&B SONG
“Drunk In Love,” Beyonce ft. Jay Z
“Good Kisser,” Usher
“New Flame,” Chris Brown ft. Usher & Rick Ross
“Options (Wolfjames Version),” Luke James ft. Rick Ross
“The Worst,” Jhené Aiko 

Again, thanks for trying everyone but no one comes close to Bey and Jay.

PREDICTION: “Drunk in Love” (Beyonce feat. Jay-Z)
ALTERNATE: “Good Kisser” (Usher)

R&B ALBUM:
Islander, Bernhoft
Lift Your Spirit, Aloe Blacc
Love, Marriage & Divorce, Toni Braxton & Babyface
Black Radio 2, Robert Glasper Experiment
Give The People What They Want, Sharon Jones & The Dap-Kings

I think the throwback to these two 90s R&B names would be enough to give them comeback Grammys since their last wins over a decade ago. Watch out for Aloe Blacc though just because he has the crossover appeal of The Man.

PREDICTION: “Love, Marriage & Divorce” (Toni Braxton & Babyface)
ALTERNATE: “Lift Your Spirit” (Aloe Blacc)

URBAN CONTEMPORARY ALBUM:
Jhene Aiko, Sail Out
Beyonce, Beyonce
Chris Brown, X
Mali Music, Mail Is
Pharrell Williams, G I R L

Sorry Pharrell, but Beyonce has this one locked.

PREDICTION: “Beyonce” (Beyonce)
ALTERNATE: “GIRL” (Pharrell Williams)

RAP FIELD:

rap

RAP PERFORMANCE
“3005,” Childish Gambino
“0 To 100/ The Catch Up,” Drake
“Rap God,” Eminem
“i,” Kendrick Lamar
“All I Need Is You,” Lecrae

Rap God. End of discussion. EMinem might just steamroll to another Rap field Grammy domination.

PREDICTION: “Rap God” (Eminem)
ALTERNATE: “i” (Kendrick Lamar)

RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION:
“Blak Majik,” Common ft. Jhené Aiko
“The Monster,” Eminem ft. Rihanna
“Tuesday,” I Love Makonnen ft. Drake
“Studio,” ScHoolboy Q ft. BJ The Chicago Kid
“Bound 2,” Kanye West & Charlie Wilson

Let’s just go with the biggest hit in the group. And maybe a consolation since they lost for Love the Way You Lie in 2010. Otherwise, Kanye is the other big name here so maybe him.

PREDICTION: “The Monster” (Eminem and Rihanna)
ALTERNATE: “Bound 2” (Kanye West feat. Charlie Wilson)

RAP SONG
“Anaconda,” Nicki Minaj
“Bound 2,” Kanye West & Charlie Wilson
“i,” Kendrick Lamar
“We Dem Boyz,” Wiz Khalifa
“0 to 100/The Catch Up,” Drake

After his shutout last year, and with no Eminem in competition this year, then maybe it’s finally bound for a Kendrick Lamar Grammy win… unless they give Kanye another one.

PREDICTION: “i” (Kendrick Lamar)
ALTERNATE: “Bound 2” (Kanye West)

RAP ALBUM:
The Marshall Mathers LP 2, Eminem
Because The Internet, Childish Gambino
The New Classic, Iggy Azalea
Blacc Hollywood, Wiz Khalifa
Oxymoron, Schoolboy Q
Nobody’s Smiling, Common

Eminem has the biggest album of the bunch, and this field loves to rubberstamp winners so there ‘ya go. Imagine the pandemonium among the people and the rap community though if Iggy Azalea wins this. LMAO.

PREDICTION: “The Marshall Mathers LP 2” (Eminem)
ALTERNATE: “The New Classic” (Iggy Azalea)

COUNTRY FIELD:

country

COUNTRY SOLO PERFORMANCE
“Give Me Me Back My Hometown,” Eric Church
“Invisible,” Hunter Hayes
“Automatic,” Miranda Lambert
“Something In the Water,” Carrie Underwood
“Cop Car,” Keith Urban

Miranda has the biggest hit of the bunch, and her only Grammy is for a vocal performance, so I’m quite complacent with this one. Carrie poses a big threat, but last year proved she still loses (and even gets snubbed!) in this category.

PREDICTION: “Automatic” (Miranda Lambert)
ALTERNATE: “Something in the Water” (Carrie Underwood)

COUNTRY DUO/GROUP COLLABORATION:
“Gentle On My Mind,” The Band Perry
“Somethin’ Bad,” Miranda Lambert with Carrie Underwood
“Day Drinking,” Little Big Town
“Meanwhile Back At Mama’s,” Tim McGraw ft. Faith Hill
“Raise ‘Em Up,” Keith Urban ft. Eric Church

These are two of their favorite vocalists, so I say easy win for Team Girl Power?

PREDICTION: “Something’ Bad” (Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood)
ALTERNATE: “Raise ‘Em Up” (Keith Urban & Eric Church)

COUNTRY SONG
“American Kids,” Kenny Chesney
“Automatic,” Miranda Lambert
“Give Me Back My Hometown,” Eric Church
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” Glen Campbell
“Meanwhile Back at Mama’s,” Tim McGraw ft. Faith Hill

I think they’ll throw Eric Church a bone for having a great year as well so either this and/or Album would be the place to reward it.

PREDICTION: “Give Me Back My Hometown” (Eric Church)
ALTERNATE: “Automatic” (Miranda Lambert)

COUNTRY ALBUM:
Riser, Dierks Bentley
The Outsiders, Eric Church
The Way I’m Livin’, Lee Ann Womack
12 Stories, Brandy Clark
Platinum, Miranda Lambert

Miranda Lambert seems to be the default frontrunner, but she always seems to be sidetracked at the Grammys, so I’m going with either Eric Church or Brandy Field who has the General Field support.

PREDICTION: “The Outsiders” (Eric Church)
ALTERNATE: “12 Stories” (Brandy Clark)

SOUNDTRACK ALBUM:

soundtrack

SONG WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURE
“Everything is Awesome,” (Tegan & Sara with The Lonely Island) from The LEGO Movie
“I See Fire,” (Ed Sheeran) from The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell) from Glen Campbell: It’ll Be Me
“Let It Go” (Idina Menzel) from Frozen
“The Moon Song,” (Karen O) from Her

To the other nominees, let it go. There’s no way you’re winning this over the instant fairy tale classic.

PREDICTION: “Let It Go” (Idina Menzel) from Frozen
ALTERNATE: “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” (Glen Campbell) from Glen Campbell: It’ll Be Me

COMPILATION ALBUM:
American Hustle 
Guardians of the Galaxy
Frozen 
Get On Up: The James Brown Story 
The Wolf of Wall Street

Being one of the most-selling albums in this day and age would be enough to assure that this is another Frozen win, unless the sympathy is really high for the late James Brown.

PREDICTION: “Frozen” (Various Artists)
ALTERNATE: “Get On Up: The James Brown Story” (James Brown)

SCORE SOUNDTRACK:
Frozen (Christopher Beck)
Gone Girl (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexander Desplat)
Gravity (Steven Price)
Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)

At this point, I’m just predicting they’re gonna continue the Frozen love. But Steven Price must be considered as well as he’s the only other one with no wins in this category yet.

PREDICTION: “Frozen” (Christophe Beck)
ALTERNATE: “Gravity” (Steven Price)

MUSIC VIDEOS:

music video

MUSIC VIDEO
“We Exist,” Arcade Fire
“Turn Down for What,” DJ Snake & Lil Jon
“Chandelier,” Sia
“Happy,” Pharrell Williams
“The Golden Age,” Woodkid ft. Max Richter

This one seems like an easy win for Sia especially if she doesn’t win in her other nominations. Consider this as the template place to reward her.

PREDICTION: “Chandelier” (Sia)
ALTERNATE: “Happy” (Pharrell Williams)

music film

MUSIC FILM:
Beyoncé & Jay Z: On The Run Tour, Beyoncé & Jay Z
Ghost Stories, Coldplay
20 Feet From Stardom, Darlene Love, Merry Clayton, Lisa Fischer & Judith Hill
Metallica: Through The Never, Metallica
The Truth About Love Tour: Live From Melbourne, Pink

Sorry Jay and Bey, but you have to sit this one out. You’re competing against the Oscar winner for Best Documentary Feature. I’m sure one Grammy less won’t hurt your shelf.

PREDICTION: “20 Feet From Stardom” (Darlene Love, Merry Clayton, Lisa Fischer & Judith Hill)
ALTERNATE: “On The Run Tour” (Beyonce)

Talk to me about the Grammys by tweeting me: @nikowl

 

 

 

21st Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

After the Golden Globes two weeks ago, let’s go to the other awards ceremony that awards both TV and movie performances, the Screen Actors Guild. With thousand of members that comprise the SAG-AFTRA group, the SAG Awards is an award given to actors by their own peers. This year, let’s see who’d end up winning the nude Actor trophy in 13 different categories.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

film ensemble

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

PREDICTION: Boyhood. This one is quite tricky. There are years when the SAG goes their own way and award the most ensemble-y nominee of the group (see: Sideways, American Hustle, The Help) but then there are years where the default Best Picture frontrunner just skates by (see: Argo, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men), I think this year we’d get the latter and have the four-member cast of Boyhood take the top trophy.

ALTERNATE: Birdman. But still, we can see a scenario where Birdman emerges as the top winner here. After all, it’s a film about actors, and that might resonate well in this branch. With three individual acting nominations and an ensemble full of many prominent Hollywood names in it, a case can be made for them winning.

film actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
STEVE CARELL / John du Pont – “FOXCATCHER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH / Alan Turing – “THE IMITATION GAME” (The Weinstein Company)
JAKE GYLLENHAAL / Louis Bloom – “NIGHTCRAWLER” (Open Road Films)
MICHAEL KEATON / Riggan – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Stephen Hawking – “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING” (Focus Features)

PREDICTION: Michael Keaton, Birdman. Keaton fits the veteran bill that this category loves to reward. He plays a struggling has-been which a lot would surely find relate-able. Plus, him getting this break at the state of his career is every actor’s inspiring story. This is very crucial to Keaton. If he loses this on Sunday, then it’s over for him at the Oscars.

ALTERNATE: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything. He has BAFTA wrapped around his little finger already, so if he wins this one, then he’d surely be ahead of Keaton as Oscar comes in. This game is closer than what we probably think, and he’s very much into the race. Remember that his film scored an Ensemble nod even if it’s basically him and co-star Jones on the forefront.

film actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
JENNIFER ANISTON / Claire Bennett – “CAKE” (Cinelou Films)
FELICITY JONES / Jane Hawking – “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING” (Focus Features)
JULIANNE MOORE / Alice Howland – “STILL ALICE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
ROSAMUND PIKE / Amy Dunne – “GONE GIRL” (20th Century Fox)
REESE WITHERSPOON / Cheryl Strayed – “WILD” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

PREDICTION: Julianne Moore, Still Alice. Let’s just stick with the veteran who hasn’t won this category yet. It’s basically a smooth train ride all the way to the Oscar so just prepare your speeches, Jules.

ALTERNATE: Jennifer Aniston, Cake. Bleh who cares if she was Oscar snubbed. When half of the voters are from the TV actors guild, Rachel Green can surely still rake ’em votes.

film supporting actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
ROBERT DUVALL / Joseph Palmer – “THE JUDGE” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
ETHAN HAWKE / Mason, Sr. – “BOYHOOD” (IFC Films)
EDWARD NORTON / Mike – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MARK RUFFALO / Dave Schultz – “FOXCATCHER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
J.K. SIMMONS / Fletcher – “WHIPLASH” (Sony Pictures Classics)

PREDICTION: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash. After working the circuit during majority of his career, a coronation of some sort for this long time hardworking character actor at the SAG is very much fitting.

ALTERNATE: Edward Norton, Birdman. Maybe a lot of these voters can remember a thing or two from Norton’s character no? He’s the alternate, albeit a very weak one.

film supporting actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
PATRICIA ARQUETTE / Olivia – “BOYHOOD” (IFC Films)
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY / Joan Clarke – “THE IMITATION GAME” (The Weinstein Company)
EMMA STONE / Sam – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MERYL STREEP / The Witch – “INTO THE WOODS” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
NAOMI WATTS / Daka – “ST. VINCENT” (The Weinstein Company)

PREDICTION: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood. There isn’t even any competition anymore for this longtime working actress as she’ll just glide all the way to Oscar night.

ALTERNATE: Emma Stone, Birdman. Just because she’s the biggest name and the only possibility for a surge of Birdman love in the guilds.

TELEVISION PROGRAMS

actor tv movie

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
ADRIEN BRODY / Harry Houdini  – “HOUDINI” (History)
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH / Sherlock Holmes – “SHERLOCK: HIS LAST VOW” (PBS)
RICHARD JENKINS / Henry Kitteridge – “OLIVE KITTERIDGE” (HBO)
MARK RUFFALO / Ned Weeks – “THE NORMAL HEART” (HBO)
BILLY BOB THORNTON / Lorne Malvo – “FARGO” (FX)

PREDICTION:Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo. He’s the only Fargo acting nomination this year so that might be a bit of a reach, but there seems to be passion for Thornton’s Lorne Malvo, and this is a pretty weak competition he has this year.

ALTERNATE: Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart. After losing the Emmy and the Golden Globe, the whole of Normal Heart simply isn’t just resonating well with voters. But who knows, maybe this can be a substitute award since he’s not winning Film Supporting Actor.

actress tv movie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
ELLEN BURSTYN / Olivia Foxworth – “FLOWERS IN THE ATTIC” (Lifetime)
MAGGIE GYLLENHAAL / Nessa Stein – “THE HONORABLE WOMAN” (SundanceTV)
FRANCES McDORMAND / Olive Kitteridge – “OLIVE KITTERIDGE” (HBO)
JULIA ROBERTS / Dr. Emma Brookner – “THE NORMAL HEART” (HBO)
CICELY TYSON / Carrie Watts – “THE TRIP TO BOUNTIFUL” (Lifetime)

PREDICTION: Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge. I’m really not sure with this one as I had her pegged for the Globe only to see her lose, but she’s a respected veteran who has won Best Actress for Fargo in 1997 so there’s at least a precedent.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Honorable Woman. Or it can just be like the Globes where Maggie does a repeat making her a strong case at the Emmys this year.

tv drama actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
WOODY HARRELSON / Martin Hart – “TRUE DETECTIVE” (HBO)
MATTHEW McCONAUGHEY / Rust Cohle – “TRUE DETECTIVE” (HBO)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Matthew McConaughey, True Detective. So I’ve predicted McConaighey for the Emmy only to see him lose to Bryan Cranston. Then I’ve predicted him for the Golden Globe where he then lost to Billy Bob Thornton. I don’t even know why I’m predicting him for a third time. Maybe I’m jinxing him actually.

ALTERNATE: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards. After his Golden Globe win two weeks ago, is SAG following suit? If the voters aren’t really up for some McConaughey crowning, expect 2x Oscar winner Kevin Spacey to benefit from it.

tv drama actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
VIOLA DAVIS / Annalise Keating – “HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER” (ABC)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
TATIANA MASLANY / Sarah/Coxima/Alison/Rachel/Helena/Tony/Jennifer and Various Others – “ORPHAN BLACK” (BBC America)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder. I’m really shocked by her nomination considering how newer performances don’t easily get nominated that quick here, but she seems to be an actor’s actor type of performer who generate command and passion from her peers.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey. Or might as well just stick with the current (still a no show) winner.

tv drama ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards

PREDICTION: Downton Abbey. None of these really strikes to me as a winner. Boardwalk has won twice before and isn’t winning here for sure. Homeland hasn’t but it has ran past its course. Game of Thrones doesn’t necessarily scream a best ensemble winner template even if it has a large ensemble. Thus I’m sticking with the Brits who pulled off this upset win in 2012.

ALTERNATE: House of Cards. If not them, then let’s just go with the only new  nominee from the bunch, even if it’s basically the Kevin and Robin show.

tv comedy actor

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY ” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank Gallagher – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)

PREDICTION: Ty Burrell, Modern Family. With no strong frontrunner here plus the fact that they love repeat winners in their TV categories, let’s just stick with the only man who gave Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock his only SAG loss.

ALTERNATE: William H. Macy, Shameless. Macy is the veteran of this group, and if there’s a lot of name checking here, he’d be one who’d benefit the most.

tv comedy actress

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
JULIE BOWEN / Claire Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / Vice President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. This doesn’t scream to me as a one-time winner only so an easy repeat win for the current champ.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black. When a striking scene-stealer makes some pop culture waves, the SAG usually bites (see Sandra Oh and Chandra Wilson in Grey’s Anatomy), but if the Globes didn’t even bite to the Aduba bandwagon, it would take more than that to overcome Julia’s run.

tv comedy ensemble

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine Nine
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Veep

PREDICTION: Orange is the New Black. For some reason, this seems like the Matthew McConaughey thing again. I predicted it at the Emmys only to lose to Modern Family, then I went with it at the Globes because it’s such a Globes-y thing to do to reward it and they went with Transparent. Maybe the 40 group ensemble would be enough to finally secure a major win for the show?

ALTERNATE: Modern Family. Say what you want, but this ensemble still works six seasons after. They have a perfect 5/5 record at the SAGs and if there’s one show who’ll break that record, it’s this.

You can talk to me about this on Twitter: @nikowl

 

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 4: Drama   Leave a comment

Hi there everyone! You’re still reading Tit for Tat’s 66th Emmy coverage. For the past three days, I have been sharing to you my predictions on who I think will be up for Emmy awards for this year. So before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the official nominees in the Reality and Variety, TV Movie and Miniseries, and Comedy genres, let’s finish this prediction series with the most serious genre of them all: drama!

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Directing

• Boardwalk Empire, Farewell Daddy Blues (Tim van Patten)
• Breaking Bad, Felina (Vince Gilligan)
• Downton Abbey, Episode 1 (David Evans)
• Masters of Sex, Pilot (John Madden)
• True Detective, Who Goes There (Cary Fukunaga)

Sixth nominee: House of Cards, Chapter 14 (Carl Franklin)

And let’s begin with Directing. Despite Boardwalk Empire falling off the Series and Lead Actor nods that they received during the show’s first two seasons, it’s safe to say that they haven’t lost their touch yet with the directors voting branch. For its past three seasons, the show has received two wins out of four nods, so we can all rely on Tim van Patten receiving his fourth consecutive nomination in here for the season finale Farewell Daddy Blues. You can also count on Downton Abbey to get in here since they’re very strategic about this whole Emmy process that they submit only one episode, so if the voters want to reward the show, Episode 1 is their only option to do so. Probably the most buzzed directorial achievement this year, Cary Fukunaga’s eight minute long track shot in True Detective’s Who Goes There isn’t only a nominee sure bet, but a frontrunner for the win as well. And can we talk about how this category loves its pilots and finales? Yep that’s right. Thus, I’m predicting one a piece for the pilot of Masters of Sex directed by Shakespeare in Love director John Madden, and of course, the finale of Breaking Bad by creator Vince Gilligan. Watch out for House of Cards though since it is the current champ in this category.

OUTSTANDING WRITING IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Writing

• Breaking Bad, Felina (Vince Gilligan)
• Breaking Bad, Ozymandias (Moira Walley-Beckett)
• Downton Abbey, Episode 1 (Julian Fellowes)
• Game of Thrones, The Children (David Benoiff, D.B. Weiss)
• True Detective, The Secret Fate of All Life (Nic Pizzolatto)

Sixth nominee: Mad Men, Waterloo (Carly Wray, Matthew Weiner)

As for the writing, it’s safe to assume that all these Downton Abbey fans in the Academy will simply check it off the Writing and Directing ballot so a nod here is expected (just like the past two years). After years of snubbing, Breaking Bad finally entered the race last year with two nominations, and I expect them to have the same fate this year — one for their finale Ozymandias and the other for their most submitted episode in the Emmy ballot, Felina. Unlike Downton Abbey though, True Detective only has one writer for the whole season; thus it can only submit one episode for consideration, so I’m expecting all its supports to push The Secret Fate of All Life to make it in here. As for the last spot, despite the show being a flashier directorial bet, it seems like the writers branch is the oen appreciative of Game of Thrones given their two nods here for the last two years. Therefore, I placed it here for their season finale episode.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Guest Actor

• Michael Bowen, “Breaking Bad
• Beau Bridges, “Masters of Sex
• Dan Bucatinsky, “Scandal
• Nathan Lane, “The Good Wife
• Robert Morse, “Mad Men
• Pedro Pascal, “Game of Thrones

Seventh nominee: Louis Gossett Jr., “Boardwalk Empire

Well let’s begin with curent champ Dan Bucatinsky. Without spoiling anything, I think he’s not only in for a consecutive nod, bur he’s very much in for a consecutive win as well with that very baity episode. And since there’s no Michael J. Fox in tow, it paves the way for a repeat Nathan Lane nod as he’s the torchbearer of The Good Wife in this category for this year. Robert Morse of Mad Men has been nominated here four out of the last six times he’s eligible, and with a buzzed season he had, it’s safe to assume he’ll be back in the line up again. The same buzz surrounds Game of Thrones actor Pedro Pascal (and that’s solely not for his shirtless photo that he posted!) and with Game of Thrones‘ haul looking to be its biggest year by far, he’ll definitely be in for the ride. Then there’s semi-favorite Beau Bridges. His lauded performance in Masters of Sex already assures him of a nod, but the fact that he’s been nominated here twice the past four years means he has more support than expected. As for that last spot, I’m giving it to Breaking Bad actor Michael Bowen since I think this will be a redux of the Mark Margolis nom two years ago. He’s in the scenes most with the leads, and that can spread the wealth to his impending nod.

OUTSTANDING GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Guest Actress

• Kate Burton, “Scandal
• Jane Fonda, “The Newsroom
• Allison Janney, “Masters of Sex
• Lisa Kudrow, “Scandal
• Carrie Preston, “The Good Wife
• Diana Rigg, “Game of Thrones

Seventh nominee: Margo Martindale, “The Americans

Aside from current champ Carrie Preston of The Good Wife and current frontrunenr Allison Janney of Masters of Sex, this is quite a lukewarm category as compared to its male counterpart. Sure there’s Dame Diana Rigg whose season wasn’t as sure like the last one, but I don’t see the Emmys dropping her easily this year, so I’m predicting a nod for her. Then there’s Jane Fonda who can’t even win last year with her legend status and baity tape, and with The Newsroom being less of a factor at all, I can see her missing. That said, she’s been visible lately with her tribute, so maybe another nod isn’t totally out of reach. Then for the last two spots, I’m going a bit heavy on Scandal guest actresses. First, there’s Emmy winner Lisa Kudrow. Though her guest appearance doesn’t scream “sure Emmy contender”, I think hers is one of the most buzzed guesting of the TV drama season that she can coast to a nod for it. It’s not surprising if she misses though especially since Kate Burton is also in contention. Shonda Rhimes made Kate Burton a multiple time nominee here for Grey’s Anatomy before, I easily think she can do a repeat of that, this time for her role in Scandal.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Supp Actor

• Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey
• Josh Charles, “The Good Wife
• Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones
• Dean Norris, “Breaking Bad
• Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad
• Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan

Seventh nominee: Charles Dance, “Game of Thrones

Both previous winners Peter Dinklage and Aaron Paul are safe already methinks. And in the tradition of farewell shows getting in more nods for their cast (see Kristin Davis in Sex in the City in 2004, Matthew Fox in Lost in 2010), I expect Dean Norris to finally snatch a nomination for himself as well. I’ve been adamant about Jim Carter, but I already made the mistake of dropping him last year only to be fooled when the noms were announced. So I’m sticking for him now. With how his fate in the show shocked the whole TV crowd, I expect Josh Charles to get his second nod for The Good Wife three years after he received his first. As for that last slot, I think the Globes affirmed more than ever on how it values its movie stars, Jon Voight will get that veteran slot for his first season performance in Ray Donovan. If not him, then maybe Game of Thrones adds another acting performance via another veteran, Charles Dance.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Supp Actress

• Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife
• Emilia Clarke, “Game of Thrones
• Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey
• Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad
• Michelle Monaghan, “True Detective
• Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey

Seventh nominee: Bellamy Young, “Scandal

Clusterfuck. That’s what this category is. Well let’s start with the regulars. Current champ Anna Gunn, 2012 winner Dame Maggie Smith, and perennial nominee Christine Baranski are the three safest in this line up that’s for sure. Then as for the other three, I’m going with a repeat of Emilia Clarke’s nod simply because I think Emmy has a disconnect with who owns which season when it comes to nominating actors from Game of Thrones. If she managed to get in last year with that lackluster of a season, I wouldn’t have high expectations that she will be dropped this year for doing less of that. Then there’s Michelle Monaghan, who I’m really not convinced. It seems like True Detective was 80% McConaughey and 20% Harrelson, that they won’t even care about the others. I can see a scenario where someone who makes sense to get nominated suddenly is nowhere to be found (Nicollette Sheridan in 2005, Corey Stoll last year), though I’m counting on Monaghan’s C-list movie star status to somehow help her here. The last spot is the riskiest of them all, as I’m going with a comeback narrative for Joanne Frogatt simply because her storyline the past season is too in your face to ignore. I have Bellamy Young as a replacement just because I find it weird if Scandal gets five(!) acting nominations and it’s not even close to be a Series contender, so I think she’s the most vulnerable.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Lead Actor

• Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad
• Jon Hamm, “Mad Men
• Woody Harrelson, “True Detective
• Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective
• Michael Sheen, “Masters of Sex
• Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards

Seventh nominee: James Spader, “The Blacklist

Talk about crowded. This category has at least 10 names in contention that makes a whole lotta sense. Let’s begin with Bryan Cranston. We actually can end it now with Cranston as well, but yeah he’s sooo getting in. Then there’s 2x Oscar winner Kevin Spacey. Sure his name didn’t exactly bring him to the podium last year, but this is a tailor made role for him that he’ll be a mainstay at these awards shows even if the show has already faltered. I think regardless of Mad Men‘s fate as a whole, Jon Hamm is another of those perennial nominees that will still get in, so I think he’s safe, albeit a bit vulnerable, for this year. And let’s go to the newbies. As for starters, we have the pair of True Detective actors here, and I predict both of them getting in. Well McConaughey is the more obvious one, and I see him contending for the win as well, but I’m going with Harrelson too since I predict that they’ll just check both of their names off. Plus this is not a priority vote ranking that will hurt the latter. That said, I won’t be surprised if he misses though since as I mentioned above, True Detective was 80% McConaughey and 20% Harrelson. As for that last slot, I contemplated going with James Spader, and he makes sense actually since he’s in a hit show and it’s a comeback performance, and this category really loves him (I mean come on, he won over James Gandolfini for the last season of The Sopranos). Then there’s also Downton Abbey‘s Hugh Bonneville and current champ Jeff Daniels of The Newsroom, but I think we’d see the start of decline of Downton starting this year and The Newsroom is as DOA as one can get per HBO standards. Thus, I’m going with previous Emmy nominee Michael Sheen since I;m quite confident of Masters of Sex delivering on Emmy nomination day.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Lead Actress

• Claire Danes, “Homeland
• Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey
• Vera Farmiga, “Bates Motel
• Juliana Margulies, “The Good Wife
• Kerry Washington, “Scandal
• Robin Wright, “House of Cards

Seventh nominee: Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men

And here’s another crowded one. Let’s begin by saying that despite Homeland turning into some mega shit show for its third season, Claire Danes still rises above the occasion, and I don’t think she’ll be snubbed ala Margulies last year. After all, she’s still the reigning champ in here. Speaking of Margulies, I believe that last year was just a fluke and a case where everyone thought she’s safe already that’s why they’re spreading the wealth (like how Allison Janney was snubbed in 2005), and with The Good Wife‘s heavily buzzed season, she’s so coming back for another nomination. If Robin Wright managed to get in last year for a borderline supporting role, I see no problem for her getting in this year again with even a winning tape in her hands. I’m sticking with Michelle Dockery still just because I really don’t think they’d dropped anything Downton that quick, and I have Hugh Bonneville as the sacrificial lamb of the show already. Kerry Washington who can’t even win for the love of God a Golden Globe or a SAG for Scandal, has a stronger narrative last year than this year, but I think she’s still safe at least this year. As for that last spot, I keep going back and forth with Elisabeth Moss and Vera Farmiga, but I really don’t think they’ll drop the Oscar nominee instantly especially after her surprise nomination last year as opposed to Mad Men who’s on a decline with their nods. Now watch them nominate all seven of them now.

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES:

Drama Series

• Breaking Bad (AMC)
• Downton Abbey (PBS)
• Game of Thrones (HBO)
• House of Cards (Netflix)
• Masters of Sex (Showtime)
True Detective (HBO)

Seventh nominee: Mad Men (AMC)

As if we haven’t had any headaches with the Drama categories yet, but yes, Series is tough to predict. Unless, you know, they go with seven nominees. Bu let’s assume there are only six. I think we can separate them into this: Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and True Detective are safe no matter what. They’re clearly the upper tier in this one. No matter what happens to the rest of the line up, we can expect to see these three here. And then I’d go and say Downton Abbey is fourth here. Like I’m sure you’re also wondering who effin still supports Downton Abbey, the answer is: Emmy voting panel. I’d love to be wrong here, but let’s not kid ourselves. Then we have Showtime’s slot. I think Masters of Sex is being quite underrated as a whole, but this is clearly Showtime’s priority this year, and they have been doing a smooth run for its campaign. I think this will be the surprise of the contenders here. For that last spot, there’s Mad Men who is a 4x champ and has been nominated for all of its seasons by far, but really, the show’s buzz has just been absent all along. Not even at the guild precursors. It’s literally MIA as far as buzz is felt, though who knows? After all, the Emmys are the last group to react to buzz of shows. Then there’s also House of Cards. After its premiere last February, the show has been eclipsed by it’s Netflix sister Orange is the New Black. But to its favor, there’s still some clout left under its rug, and this is Netflix’ drama priority while Mad Men plays second fiddle to Breaking Bad. there’s a big chance they’d go seven nominees still (or even The Good Wife making that comeback), but for now I’d choose House of Cards by a small  margin.

Finally it’s over! Are you excited for the announcement later? Do you think Mad Men will be able to maintain its perfect Series nomination record? How much of Downton Abbey will go down in terms of nominations? And can Jeff Daniels overcome the jinx and get a chance to retain his title? Go on and share your thoughts in the comments section. 🙂

Don’t forget you ca follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 2: TV Movie and Miniseries   2 comments

Hey again guys! If you may not know (as if that blog header isn’t obvious enough), we’re still on our Emmy week here at Tit for Tat as we gloss over the possible Emmy nominees before Carson Daly and Mindy Kaling announce them on Thursday morning. Yesterday, I started this four part series of predictions by going over the Reality and Variety categories. This time, we’ll be tackling the eight major categories of the Movie and Miniseries genre. Let’s get started!

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Writing

• Dancing on the Edge (Stephen Poliakoff)
• Fargo, “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” (Noah Hawley)
• Luther (Neill Cross)
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (Shawn Slovo)
• The Normal Heart (Larry Kramer)
• Sherlock: His Last Vow (Steven Moffat)

Alternate:  Treme, “To Miss New Orleans

Well aside from The Normal Heart and Fargo, it’s really difficult to pinpoint which direction the voters will go to. I’d have Luther in simply because the last time the show was eligible, it also received a nod in this category. Then Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight won the WGA for Adapted Screenplay albeit a field of two only. Then what I’ve noticed in this category is that they love ’em British pieces. They might not nominate them for the bigger series awards, but the writing branch always have a soft spot for them; thus, I’m going with Sherlock. And lastly, Dancing for the Edge seems like a filler nod for either Writing or Directing, and I’m palcing it here since it’s less competitive than Directing.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Directing

• Fargo, “Buridan’s Ass” (Colin Bucksey
• Fargo, “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” (Adam Bernstein)
• The Hollow Crown, “Henry IV: Part II” (Richard Eyre)
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (Stephen Frears)
• The Normal Heart (Ryan Murphy)
• The Trip to Bountiful (Michael Wilson)

Alternate:  The White Queen, “The Final Battle

The two surest contenders here are definitely Ryan Murphy (at this point, The Normal Heart will just steamroll its way to a lot of nominations) and Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight because come on it’s Stephen Frears. And he’s a well known film director. Plus it’s from HBO. Fargo’s “The Crocodile’s Dilemma” seems like a good bet as well since it’s the pilot of the show, and I’m certain Fargo will get in here. That said, I’m predicting two episodes from the show to get nominated. Aside from the pilot, I also have Buridan’s Ass which has that major shooting episode (it’s Ep 6 for you casual viewers). It’s one of Fargo‘s most buzzed episodes of the series and I think it can penetrate the race. The Trip to Bountiful seems like a better directing contender than a writing one that’s why I’m putting it here instead of Writing. As for the last spot, I think it’s gonna be one of those epic fantasy episodes, so it’s between The White Queen’s Final Battle versus The Hollow Crown’s Henry IV: Part II. I’m going with the latter simply because of the name recognition.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Supp Actress

• Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Coven
• Jacqueline Bisset, “Dancing on the Edge
• Ellen Burstyn, “Flowers in the Attic
• Julia Roberts, “The Normal Heart
• Allison Tolman, “Fargo
• Vanessa Williams, “The Trip to Bountiful

Seventh nominee: Audra McDonald, “The Sound of Music Live!

What a crowded category. There’s like ten women in actual contention for this usually barren category. Let’s begin with the easy guesses. There’s Julia Roberts. In a friggin TV movie. In her wheelchair. Throwing papers. I can go on and on but you get the point now. She’s in. Then there’s Kathy Bates too. At this point, I think there’s a slow decline of Emmy love for American Horror Story in general that’s why I’m predicting her as the only supporting actress nominee from this show. If only this was a weak year or if AHS was in its first or second season (both are not), I’d be more lenient with her inclusion. Then there’s an unknown by the name of Allison Tolman? I know you’re probably thinking “Who?”, but this is TV’s biggest breakthrough performances of the season. This is a friggin’ Oscar winning role, and I see her even being the dark horse for the win. Speaking of win, Golden Globe winner Jacqueline Bisset is also in my predictions list simply because her role is something that is a regular in this category.And her Globe win, as infamous as it was, put her to some sort of public consciousness.  Current champ Ellen Burstyn is also in contention, and I think a repeat nod is possible. Sure Flowers in the Attic is no Political Animals, but this is the category that nominated her for a 14 second performance in 2006. They love her here. The last spot is between two Tony nominees: Tony queen Audra McDonald is the only redemption of The Sound of Music Live! and her current Tony good will might translate to a nod, but my bet is on 3x nominee Vanessa Williams reprising her Broadway role here.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Supp Actor

• Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart
• Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
• Colin Hanks, “Fargo
• Joe Mantello, “The Normal Heart
• Jim Parsons, “The Normal Heart
• Blair Underwood, “The Trip to Bountiful

Seventh nominee: Frank Langella, “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

This one is basically the extension of The Normal Heart cast with five of their men eligible in this category. That said, I’ll only be predicting three, as I don’t see anything beyond that possible. Of course there’s winner frontrunner Matt Bomer who is the surest guy from the show here. I’m also rpedicting Jim Parsons since it’s somewhat of a departure from him, and he’s current champ (in Comedy Lead Actor) that they won’t shy from giving him double nominations this year. Lastly, I have Joe Mantello since he’s “breakdown” moment is one of the most talked about. It’s a clip made for awards show purposes plus he’s a veteran that I won’t be surprised Emmys going for it. As for the other three guys, I’m going with Martin Freeman to repeat the same nod he got in 2012 for the previous season of Sherlock. I’ quite confident with Colin Hanks as well since he’s the only one that FX is campaigning here (which means no Oliver Platt), so that bodes well for his chances. I’m going with Blair Underwood for the last spot as Cicely Tyson’s son since this is a Tony nominated role, and I fail to see him missing here.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Actress

• Helena Bonham Carter, “Burton & Taylor
• Toni Collette, “Hostages
• Rebecca Ferguson, “The White Queen
• Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Coven
• Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Coven
• Cicely Tyson, “The Trip to Bountiful

Seventh nominee: Whoopi Goldberg, “A Day Late and a Dollar Short

If the three other acting nominees are somewhat stacked, consider this the Debbie Downer of the group with the lack of possible nominations. I guess it’s safe to begin with Jessica Lange since she’ll easily be nominated for the show’s third season. She won Supporting the first year and was nominated here for the second season, and a third consecutive one is already expected. Cicely Tyson is a sure bet too. She literally translated her Tony winning performance and she’ll likely add “Emmy winning” too come awards ceremony on August. It doesn’t hurt as well that it’s also an Oscar winning role, so a trifecta of best Actress wins for this will be quite historic.  Then there’s Globe and SAG nominee Helena Bonham Carter. She was already recognized for this at the earlier awards show, and it’s not as if this category is full to even consider her missing. Rebecca Ferguson is the unknown here but playing the title role of a Miniseries contender doesn’t hurt her. I’d be more cautious if this was only a field of five, but it’s not. Emmy winner Toni Collette also has a bid via her failed CBS series Hostages. I expect this to be a repeat of Ashley Judd’s nom in 2011 when she got in for a more star studded line up. If Judd made it in a five nominee line up, what more for Emmy champ Collete? The last spot can either go to Whoopi Goldberg or Sarah Paulson. There’s a reason why Goldberg’s EGOT win has an asterisk beside the E, it’s because she hasn’t won a Primetime Emmy yet. Therefore, it’s quite clear Emmy isn’t totally fond of her, thus making me give the last spot to Sarah Paulson who is hitting some career best stride the past few years and was nommed in Supporting for the last two years.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

Longform Actor

• Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: His Last Vow
• Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Dancing on the Edge
• Idirs Elba, “Luther”
• Martin Freeman, “Fargo
• Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart
• Billy Bob Thornton, “Fargo

Seventh nominee: Christopher Plummer, “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight

Okay so it didn’t sound as competitive in this category when True Detective announced it will compete in Drama instead, but it makes the prediction part easier. As for starters, the pair of British actors Benedict Cumberbatch and Idris Elba are likely to repeat their nods they got for their roles as Sherlock and Luther respectively. Both of them competed in 2011 as well. Then Cumberbatch’s Sherlock co-star and buddy Martin Freeman is poised to get double acting nominations as he gets one for Fargo as well alongside Billy Bob Thornton. Then it boils down to three Oscar nominees (and one winner). Mark Ruffalo is as sure as one can get, and he’s also one of the frontrunners to win for his role as the gay protagonist in The Normal Heart. While I keep on switching back and forth with Christopher Plummer and Chiwetel Ejiofor, I’d be giving the last slot to the latter since his momentum is pretty much fresher with his Oscar nod earlier this year.

OUTSTANDING MINI SERIES:

Miniseries

• American Horror Story: Coven (FX)
• Dancing on the Edge (Starz)
• Fargo (FX)
• Luther (BBC America)
• The White Queen (BBC America)

Sixth nominee: The Hollow Crown (BBC America)

Of all years where they decided to separate the TV movies and miniseries again, they went with this year goddamit. Anyway, both the FX series are sure things here. American Horror Story got in the last two years and Fargo is the de facto frontrunner here. Luther is poised to make a comeback here as well especially in a weak field. Then in the battle of large ensemble dramas, I’d go with Dancing on the Edge as the first one since this flashy period piece works well in this category. I’m leaning with The White Queen in my last spot though simply because I felt it has an overall mainstream appeal than The Hollow Crown, but all I know is that it’s a slot reserved for BBC America.

OUTSTANDING TV MOVIE OR MINI SERIES:

TV Movie

• Killing Kennedy (national Geographic)
• Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight (HBO)
• The Normal Heart (HBO)
• Sherlock: His Last Vow (PBS)
• The Trip to Bountiful (Lifetime)

Sixth nominee: Burton & Taylor (BBC America)

As if they still need to have nominees here since The Normal Heart is gonna sweep this away (and deservedly so), but for the sake of competition, the four other nominees here would definitely be Sherlock: His Last Vow. Why the show decides to submit here instead of Miniseries when they can compete now is beyond me. Then you have Lifetime’s The Trip to Bountiful. It’s an acclaimed TV movie and at this point, a Lifetime show is bound to get in so it being their top contender also makes it a surer bet. National Geographic’s Killing Kennedy is a buzzed TV movie as well even reaping nods at the SAGs for its lead actor, so with a divided field for TV Movie and Miniseries, there’s a huge chance of it happening. The last spot, which I call the HBO slot, is reserved for that lesser buzzed HBO TV movie. After all for every Game Change, there’s a Hemignway & Gellhorn. For every Behind the Candelabra, there’s a Phil Spector and for every Temple Grandin, there’s a You Don’t Know Jack. So for this year’s The Normal Heart, I’d go with Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight since it’s the more buzzed one than that other HBO TV movie Clear History whom despite having a more known cast, has a nonexistent presence at the race at all.

There you have it. How many The Normal Heart guys are you predicting in Supporting Actor? Can Whoopi Goldberg change her Daytime Emmy to a Primetime one? And how do you feel if NBC’s Rosemary Baby Suddenly enters the race? Pipe them in the comments section below.

Tomorrow, ready your tummies for the hilarity that will ensue as we discuss the Comedy categories.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

 

66th Primetime Emmy Awards Nominations Predictions Part 1: Reality and Variety   Leave a comment

Hi everyone! This week is a special week long Emmy coverage here at Tit for Tat! Before Mindy Kaling and Carson Daly announce the official 66th Emmy nominees on Thursday, I’ll be doing a four-parter prediction post to cover who I think will be nominated in 30 different categories. And like in the past three years, we’ll begin with the Reality and Variety categories.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION SERIES:

Reality Competition

• The Amazing Race (CBS)
• Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
• Project Runway (Lifetime)
• Survivor (CBS)
• Top Chef (Bravo)
• The Voice (NBC)

Seventh nominee: So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

This category rarely does some major shake up if history is to be looked at. The Amazing Race has consistently been nominated since the inception of the award and has a perfect track record of 11 nominations by far. Project Runway meanwhile has been nominated 9 times, Dancing with the Stars got in eight times, while one time winner Top Chef  has stayed in this category for the past seven years. Thus, it’s easy to assume all will be getting in easily again. And then there’s current champion The Voice. With no other singing competition in the mix right now (Idol hew?), it’ll easily grab a spot as well and try to be the other multiple winning show here. Now as for the last spot, I’d say it’s between Fox’s So You Think You Can Dance and Survivor from CBS. SYTYCD has been nommed here for the last three years and it makes sense that we’ll have the same line up again considering how barren this category is, but Survivor has achieved a creative resurgence in terms of critical and commercial aspects that I think this once 4x nominee will make a comeback since it last got in back in 2006.

OUTSTANDING REALITY/COMPETITION HOST:

Variety Host

• Tom Bergeron, “Dancing with the Stars
• Anthony Bourdain, “The Taste
• Carson Daly, “The Voice
• Cat Deeley, “So You Think You Can Dance
• Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn, “Project Runway
• Jane Lynch, “Hollywood Game Night

Seventh nominee: Phil Keoghan, “The Amazing Race

Despite six slots in contention this year, this still feels like a very crowded race. Probably it’s because they combined reality show with reality competition hosts in here. Let’s start with the last two champs in this category: 2011 winner Tom Bergeron and last year’s pair of winners, Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn. With both their shows still showing signs of strength in the Reality/Competition category, I think they are shoo-ins thus far. Cat Deeley seems like another good bet, though I won’t be surprised if both she and her show would miss this year. Then there’s also Anthony Bourdain from The Taste. After getting the surprise nod last year, I think he’ll be a consecutive nominee for it. And while it’s no sure thing, I’ve quite grown confidence with Carson Daly because one, he’s the host of the current Reality/Competition winner. Second, he will be doing the Emmy nomination announcement and more often than not, it bodes well to one of the two announcers. Lastly, I’m predicting Jane Lynch to cross over with a nod here. After her last year’s surprise comeback in Comedy Supporting Actress, it’s clear she has her fans within the voting bloc. I think that will translate to a support here just like how Betty White got in here after being shafted in the acting races.

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES

Variety Series

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Seventh nominee:  Late Show with David Letterman (CBS)

There’s a huge chance we’d be getting the same line up as from last year. The only possible factor I can see making waves is if David Letterman’s retirement. And that’s a real possibility. But for now, don’t fix if it ain’t broken – when predicting at least.

REALITY PROGRAM

Reality Series

• Antiques Roadshow (PBS)
• Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives (Food Network)
• Mythbusters (Discovery Channel)
• Shark Tank (ABC)
• Undercover Boss(CBS)
• Who Do You Think You Are? (NBC)

This category is very much confusing in terms of possible nominees since some winners suddenly get left out the following year. That said, I’m sticking with the same line up form last year except for the ineligible Deadliest Catch. In its place, I’m going with the NBC celebrity story Who Do You Think You Are? which was nominated also back in 2012.

There you have it! 🙂 Tomorrow, I’ll be going on the eight categories in the longform section (TV Movie, Miniseries, four acting categories, Writing and Directing). Do not hesitate to write your predictions in the Comments section as well.

And by the way, you can follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

37th Gawad Urian Winner Predictions   2 comments

The glory days of local Philippine awards night have been over, and right now, there are only two remaining interesting citation giving bodies: the Young Critics Circle and the Manunuri (and my own Titties awards of course lol). That said, the YCC already gave their citation last April while the Manunuri will be handling out their awards tomorrow. And in line with that, I’ll be going on a limb and try to predict who’ll end up with those huge silver trophies tomorrow in all 12 categories.

best pic

BEST PICTURE
Badil
Dukit
Ekstra
Ang Kuwento ni Mabuti
Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan

On the Job
Porno
Riddles of my Homecoming
Transit

With how huge Norte was last year, I think it will be an easy win for this Cannes Un Certain regard entry to receive the top prize for tomorrow’s ceremony. Besides, it’s not as if Lav Diaz has been over-rewarded here before (his films only won twice, for 2001’s Batang Westside and 2004’s Ebolusyon ng Isang Pamilyang Pilipino). To add more confidence in its side, it’s also the top nominated film for this year, and you’d notice the trend that it is indeed one of their most loved films this year. That said though, if they want to spread the wealth, I can see the other top nomination receiver, Dukit, getting the most coveted award instead.

Prediction: Norte, Hangganan ng Kasaysayan
Alternate: Dukit

best directing

BEST DIRECTING
Whammy Alcazaren, “Islands
Adolf Alix Jr.. “Porno
Mes de Guzman, “Ang Kuwento ni Mabuti”
Lav Diaz, “Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan
Hannah Espia, “Transit
Peque Gallaga, Lore Reyes, “Sonata
Jeffrey Jeturian, “Ekstra
Armando Lao, “Dukit
Arnel Mardoquio, “Riddles of My Homecoming
Erik Matti, “On the Job
Chito Rono, “Badil
Alvin Yapan, “Mga Anino ng Kahapon

Choosing in a field of twelve is already a difficult task to do, though I guess I have to remove those previous winners already: Adolf Alix, Mes de Guzman, Lav Diaz, Peque Gallaga, Jeffrey Jeturian, Arnel Mardoquio, Chito Rono, and Alvin Yapan. Then you also have Urian winners Armando Lao and Whammy Alcazaren (despite in other categories). That leaves us with veteran director Erik Matti and Hannah Espia. I have a hunch that Espia has more chance in Editing for Transit (and I’m predicting her there), so I guess I’ll be going with Erik Matti. I mean he’s overdue for an Urian right? Plus, On the Job is a very flashy directorial work that I can see the Manunuri going for. If not him though, I expect a second win for Lav Diaz because really, it’s quite a shame that he has only won here only once yet.

Prediction: Erik Matti, “On the Job
Alternate: Lav Diaz, “Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan

best actor

BEST ACTOR
Mark Gil, “Philippino Story
Jhong Hilario, “Badil
Mimi Juareza, “Quick Change
Sid Lucero, “Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan
Alex Medina, “Babagwa
Ping Medina, “Transit
Joel Torre, “On the Job

Speaking of repeat winners, this surprisingly short line up (remember the 15 nominee group last year?) I think is between two past champs: 2001 champ for Batang Westside Joel Torre and 2010 champ for Muli, Sid Lucero. Lucero has the longer role and one that is very demanding as well that I won’t be surprised if the voters fall in love with such. That said, Torre’s 2013 is some sort of a career best comeback that let him lead not only one, but two brave performances of the last year (the other was for Borgy Torres’ Kabisera). Having that advantage would make me predict him for the win. Outside of those two though, I guess I’d go with Alex Medina as the other feasible winner. The Urian has a history of proclaiming the hot young handsome actor in this category (see Christopher de Leon in 1978, Philip Salvador in 1979, Richard Gomez in 1991, Aga Muhlach in 1995, Jason Abalos in 2007, Sid Lucero in 2010, Paulo Avelino in 2011, and Jericho Rosales last year) and Alex Medina fits that bill. But I’m still going with Joel Torre on this one.

Prediction: Joel Torre, “On the Job
Alternate: Sid Lucero, “Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan

best actress

BEST ACTRESS
Nora Aunor, “Ang Kuwento ni Mabuti
Angeli Bayani, “Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan
Rustica Carpio, “Ano Ang Kulay ng Mga Nakalimutang Pangarap?”
Eugene Domingo, “Instant Mommy
Cherie Gil, “Sonata
Agot Isidro, “Mga Anino ng Kahapon
Teri Malvar, “Ang Huling Chacha ni Anita
Vilma Santos, “Ekstra
Lorna Tolentino, “Burgos
Vivian Velez, “Bendor

Definitely the most talked about and interesting category of the night (I won’t even be surprised if this one is handed out after Best Picture because it’s the Philippines after all), but this one revives the Nora-Vilma rivalry in a big way. Currently though, Vilma is all time Urian champ here with 8 wins, but Nora is closely behind her with 7 wins. If Vilma wins, she’d inch farther with 9, but if Nora wins, they’d both be tied at 8. Do you think they’ll just give them a tie and call it a day? I think there’s a probable chance of that happening. After all, it will please everyone and the mileage will really be huge. And despite the two being nominated alongside with each other during the 80s and early 90s, this possibility is unprecedented yet. In the event that happens, everyone leaves happy. However, they can also do a cop out and instead reward the eight other women here. I think the biggest possible spoiler is Angeli  Bayani whose 2013 is definitely a career best for her. Making waves at almost all film festivals here, an Urian Best Actress is a nice cap off to her 2013 achievement. And that’s who I’m predicting to win here. If not her, then I expect Vilma to receive her ninth win here. Nora just had her spotlight last year, I’m sure they won’t hesitate shifting the momentum to Vilma this year.

Prediction: Angeli Bayani, “Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan
Alternate: Vilma Santos, “Ekstra

best supp actor

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Art Acuna, “Kabisera
Archie Alemania, “Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan
Carlo Aquino, “Porno
John Arcilla, “Metro Manila
Victor Basa, “Lauriana
Joey Marquez, “On the Job
Cesar Montano, “Ang Alamat ni China Doll”
Bor Ocampo, “Dukit
Junjun Quintana, “A Philippino Story
Yul Servo, “Porno

As for the supporting actors, unless Art Acuna pulls off a threepeat (which I doubt happens but I won’t be surprised if he actually does), I think it will be a battle of the two overdue Porno guys (that sounded wrong no? lol). Both Urian-less Yul Servo and Carlo Aquino are the ones I’m confident about in this category. Carlo Aquino is now on his sixth bid for a win while Yul Servo is on his fifth. You can really just toss a coin with this one, but I guess I’m going with the latter – no reasons why.

Prediction: Yul Servo, “Porno
Alternate: Carlo Aquino, “Porno

best supp actress

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angel Aquino, “Porno
Angel Aquino, “Ang Huling Chacha ni Anita
Jasmine Curtis, “Transit
Ruby Ruiz, “Ekstra
Michelle Smith, “Angustia”
Raquel Villavicencio, “Dukit

Call it the “Johnny Delgado Rule”. When it comes to Urian, compete against yourself in one category and you’d end up winning the trophy. It was in 1980 when Johnny Delgado competed against himself for for Brutal and Kakabakaba Ka Ba? and he ended up with a Supporting Actor win for the latter. Then in 1986, Jaclyn Jose was nominated twice for Best Actress: Private Show and Takaw Tukso, also winning for the latter. Fast forward to last year in this same category where Alessandra de Rossi was nominated for both Mater Dolorosa and Santa Nina, and she finally clinched her first Urian for the former. As a matter of fact, this statistic is so strong that it only faltered once (Nora Aunor who was nominated for both Bulaklak sa City Jail and ‘Merika only to lose to a threepeat Vilma Santos win for Sister Stella L.) Why am I writing about this though? It’s because I think this rule will apply again to twice nominated Angel Aquino.  I had her both as a prediction and alternate and I’ll just wait which one sticks. Like de Rossi last year, Aquino hasn’t won an Urian yet, and I’m choosing Porno by a hair since they seem to like the overall film better and that it’s her flashier and more “physically demanding” work.

Prediction: Angel Aquino, “Porno
Alternate: Angel Aquino, “Ang Huling Chacha ni Anita

Now as for the rest of the categories…

SCREENPLAY:
Prediction:
Lav Diaz, Rody Vera,Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan
Alternate:
Michicko Yamamoto, Erik Matti,On the Job

PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Prediction: Adolf Alix, “Porno
Alternate: Richard Somes, “On the Job

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Prediction: Rene Manda, “Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan
Alternate: Albert Banzon, “Porno

MUSIC:
Prediction: Gauss Obenza, “Riddles of my Homecoming
Alternate: Perry Dizon, “Norte Hangganan ng Kasaysayan

EDITING:
Prediction: Benjamin Tolentino, Hannah Espia, “Transit
Alternate: Jay Halili, “On the Job

SOUND:
Prediction: Armando Lao, “Dukit
Alternate: Arnel Barbarona, “Riddles of My Homecoming

DOCUMENTARY:
Prediction:
 Jazz in Love (Baby Ruth Villarama)
Alternate: Nanay Mameng (Adjani Arumpac)

SHORT FILM
Prediction: 
Onang (JE Tiglao)
Alternate: May Dinadala (Giancarlo Abrahan)

Let’s wait how these predictions will turn out tomorrow when the Manunuri holds the 37th Gawad Urian Awards to be hosted by Piolo Pascual and Bianca Gonzalez. The special will also be shown on Cinema One multiple times this month.

You can also follow me on Twitter: @nikowl

56th Grammy Awards Winner Predictions   Leave a comment

On Sunday, the 56th Grammy Awards will hand out their picks for the best in music. It’s quite ironic that it’s the award giving body that has the most categories (100+), but only ten categories will be presented on the main show. However, we will be treated with performances such as the collaborations of Daft Punk and Stevie Wonder, Macklemore, Ryan Lewis and Madonna among others. As far as predicting goes, it’s difficult to see the trends in terms of Grammy choices as they have no precursors and they just pick anything they want. Anyway. here are my predictions in 30 different categories.

roty

RECORD OF THE YEAR:
“Get Lucky,” Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams and Nile Rodgers
“Radioactive,” Imagine Dragons
“Royals,” Lorde
“Locked Out of Heaven,” Bruno Mars
“Blurred Lines,” Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell

PREDICTION: Bruno Mars, “Locked Out of Heaven” This contains the instrumentation that this category loves to reward, and Bruno Mars isn’t a General Field winner yet so it’s hitting two birds with one stone.

ALTERNATE: Daft Punk, “Get Lucky” This is actually the more logical choice, but I’m wary if NARAS will reward Daft Punk in all of their nominated categories.

aoty

ALBUM OF THE YEAR:
“The Blessed Unrest”, Sara Bareilles
“Random Access Memories”, Daft Punk
“good kid, m.A.a.D. city”, Kendrick Lamar
“The Heist”, Macklemore and Ryan Lewis
“Red”, Taylor Swift

PREDICTION: Daft Punk, “Random Access Memories” They’re the veterans in the group in a critically acclaimed effort, and it seems like they’re overdue for a win here.

ALTERNATE: Taylor Swift, “Red” It’s difficult to bet against Taylor Swift who’s a past victor here and in an album that came out too long ago. It says a lot that they still reward it with a nomination and probably means it’s pretty popular within the Academy.

soty

SONG OF THE YEAR:
“Just Give Me A Reason,” (Pink featuring Nate Ruess)
“Locked Out of Heaven,” (Bruno Mars)
“Roar,” (Katy Perry)
“Royals,” (Lorde)
“Same Love,” (Macklemore and Ryan Lewis)

PREDICTION: Same Love (Macklemore and Ryan Lewis featuring Mary Lambert). The song is too low key though competing with four big hits, but it has sort of become an anthem that speaks volumes on different issues.

ALTERNATE: Royals (Lorde). It’s very likely to upset especially if they go with a critically acclaimed hit that has a teenage writing in it. It can also serve as a reward to Lorde’s surprise domination.

bna

BEST NEW ARTIST
James Blake
Kendrick Lamar
Macklemore and Ryan Lewis
Kacey Musgraves
Ed Sheeran

PREDICTION: Macklemore and Ryan Lewis. I’m aware how the NARAS has an aversion to rap and urban acts in general (see Maroon 5 over Kanye in 2004 and fun over Frank Ocean last year), but they’re also too mainstream to be considered full urban.

ALTERNATE: Ed Sheeran. He seems like someone who the industry loves to reward with a win and has built up enough momentum back from his surprise SOTY nod last year.

POP FIELD:

pop

POP SOLO PERFORMANCE
“Brave,” Sara Bareilles
“Royals,” Lorde
“When I Was Your Man,” Bruno Mars
“Roar,” Katy Perry
“Mirrors,” Justin Timberlake

PREDICTION: Lorde, Royals 
ALTERNATE: Bruno Mars, When I Was Your Man

POP PERFORMANCE BY A DUO OR GROUP
“Get Lucky,” Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams and Nile Rodgers
“Just Give Me A Reason,” Pink featuring Nate Ruess
“Stay,” Rihanna featuring Mikky Ekko
“Blurred Lines,” Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell
“Suit & Tie,” Justin Timberlake featuring Jay Z

PREDICTION: Daft Punk and Pharrell Williams, Get Lucky
ALTERNATE: Pink, Nate Ruess, Just Give Me A Reason

POP VOCAL ALBUM
“Paradise”, Lana Del Rey
“Pure Heroine”, Lorde
“Unorthodox Jukebox”, Bruno Mars
“Blurred Lines”, Robin Thicke
“The 20/20 Experience – The Complete Experience”, Justin Timberlake

PREDICTION:
 Bruno MarsUnorthodox Jukebox
ALTERNATE: Justin Timberlake, The 20/20 Complete Experience

TRADITIONAL POP ALBUM
“Viva Duets”, Tony Bennett
“To Be Loved”, Michael Buble
“The Standards”, Gloria Estefan
“CeeLo’s Magic Moment”, CeeLo Green
“Now”, Dionne Warwick

PREDICTION:
Tony Bennett, Viva Duets
ALTERNATE: Michael Buble, To Be Loved

DANCE/ELECTRONICA FIELD

dance

DANCE RECORDING
“Need U (100%),” Duke Dumont Featuring A*M*E & MNEK
“Sweet Nothing,” Calvin Harris featuring Florence Welch
“Atmosphere,” Kaskade
“This Is What It Feels Like,” Armin Van Buuren Featuring Trevor Guthrie
“Clarity,” Zedd featuring Foxes

PREDICTION:
Zedd featuring Foxes, Clarity
ALTERNATE: Calvin Harris featuring Florence Welch, Sweet Nothings

DANCE ELECTRONICA ALBUM
“Random Access Memories”, Daft Punk
“Settle”, Disclosure
“18 Months”, Calvin Harris
“Atmosphere”, Kaskade
“A Color Map of the Sun”, Pretty Lights

PREDICTION: Daft Punk, Random Access Memories
ALTERNATE: Calvin Harris, 18 Months

ROCK AND ALTERNATIVE FIELD

rock

ROCK PERFORMANCE
“Always Alright”, Alabama Shakes
“The Stars (Are Out Tonight)”, David Bowie
“Radioactive”, Imagine Dragons
“Kashmir (Live)”, Led Zeppelin
“My God Is the Sun”, Queens of the Stone Age
“I’m Shakin'”, Jack White

PREDICTION: Imagine Dragons, Radioactive
ALTERNATE: David Bowie, The Stars Are Out Tonight

ROCK SONG
“Ain’t Messin ‘Round”, Gary Clark Jr.
“Cut Me Some Slack”, Paul McCartney, Dave Grohl, Krist Novoselic, Pat Smear
“Doom and Gloom”, The Rolling Stones
“God Is Dead?”, Black Sabbath
“Panic Station”, Muse

PREDICTION:
Paul McCartney, Dave Grohl, Krist Novoselic, Pat Smear, Cut Me Some Slack
ALTERNATE: The Rolling Stones, Doom & Gloom

ROCK ALBUM
“13”, Black Sabbath
“The Next Day”, David Bowie
“Mechanical Bull”, Kings of Leon
“Celebration Day”, Led Zeppelin
“…Like Clockwork”,  Queens of the Stone Age
“Psychedelic Pill”, Neil Young with Crazy Horse

PREDICTION:
David Bowie, The Next Day
ALTERNATE: Kings of Leons, Mechanical Bull

ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
“The Worse Things Get, The Harder I Fight, The Harder I Fight, The More I Love You”, Neko Case
“Trouble Will Find Me”, The National
“Hesitation Marks”, Nine Inch Nails
“Lonerism”, Tame Impala
“Modern Vampires of the City”, Vampire Weekend

PREDICTION:
Vampire Weekend, Modern Vampires of the City
ALTERNATE: Nine Inch Nails, Hesitation Marks

R&B FIELD

rnb

R&B PERFORMANCE
“Love and War,” Tamar Braxton
“Best of Me,” Anthony Hamilton
“Nakamarra,” Hiatus Kaiyote
“How Many Drinks,” Miguel featuring Kendrick Lamar
“Something,” Snark Puppy, Lalah Hathaway

PREDICTION:  Tamar Braxton, Love and War
ALTERNATE: Miguel featuring Kendrick Lamar, How Many Drinks

TRADITIONAL R&B PERFORMANCE
“Please Come Home,” Gary Clark Jr.
“Geit it Right,” Fantasia
“Quiet Fire,” Maysa
“Hey Laura,” Gregory Porter
“Yesterday,” Ryan Shaw

PREDICTION: Gary Clark Jr, Please Come Home
ALTERNATE: Fantasia, Get It Right

R&B SONG
“Best of Me,” Anthony Hamilton
“Love and War,” Tamar Braxton
“Only One,” PJ Morton featuring Stevie Wonder
“Pusher Love Girl,” Justin Timberlake
“Without Me,” Fantasia, Kelly Rowland, Missy Elliott

PREDICTION:  Justin TimberlakePusher Love Girl 
ALTERNATE: Tamar BraxtonLove and War

R&B ALBUM
“R&B Divas”,Faith Evans
“Girl on Fire”, Alicia Keys
“Love in the Future”, John Legend
“Better”, Chrisette Michele
“Three Kings”, TGT

PREDICTION: Alicia Keys, Girl on Fire
ALTERNATE: John Legend, Love in the Future

URBAN CONTEMPORARY R&B ALBUM
“Love and War”, Tamar Braxton
“Side Effects of You”, Fantasia
“One in the Chamber”, Salaam Remi
“Unapologetic”, Rihanna
“New York: A Love Story”, Mack Wilds

PREDICTION: Rihanna, Unapologetic
ALTERNATE: Tamar Braxton, Love and War

RAP FIELD:

rap

RAP PERFORMANCE
“Started From The Bottom,” Drake
“Berzerk,” Eminem
“Tom Ford,” Jay Z
“Swimming Pools (Drank),” Kendrick Lamar
“Thrift Shop,” Macklemore and Ryan Lewis featuring Wanz

PREDICTION:
Macklemore and Ryan LewisThrift Shop
ALTERNATE: Kendrick Lamar, Swimming Pools (Drank) 

RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION
“Power Trip,” J. Cole featuring Miguel
“Part II (On The Run,” Jay Z featuring Beyonce
“Holy Grail,” Jay Z featuring Justin Timberlake
“Now or Never,” Kendrick Lamar featuring Mary J. Blige
“Remember You,” Wiz Khalifa featuring The Weeknd

PREDICTION:
Jay Z, Justin Timberlake, Holy Grail
ALTERNATE: Jay Z, Beyonce, Part 2 (On the Run)

RAP SONG
“Fuckin’ Problems,” (A$AP Rocky featuring Drake, 2 Chainz and Kendrick Lamar)
“Holy Grail,” (Jay Z featuring Justin Timberlake)
“New Slaves,” (Kanye West)
“Started From The Bottom,” (Drake)
“Thrift Shop,” (Macklemore and Ryan Lewis featuring Wanz)

PREDICTION:
Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, Thrift Shop
ALTERNATE: Kanye West, New Slaves

RAP ALBUM
“Nothing Was The Same”, Drake
“Magna Carta…Holy Grail”, Jay Z
“good kid, m.A.a.D. city”, Kendrick Lamar
“The Heist”, Macklemore and Ryan Lewis
“Yeezus”, Kanye West

PREDICTION:
Kendrick Lamargood kid m.A.A.d city
ALTERNATE: Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, The Heist 

COUNTRY FIELD:

country

COUNTRY PERFORMANCE
“I Drive Your Truck,” Lee Brice
“I Want Crazy,” Hunter Hayes
“Mama’s Broken Heart,” Miranda Lambert
“Wagon Wheel,” Darius Rucker
“Mine Would Be You,” Blake Shelton

PREDICTION: Miranda Lambert, Mama’s Broken Heart
ALTERNATE: Darius Rucker, Wagon Wheel

COUNTRY GROUP COLLABORATION
“From This Valley,” The Civil Wars
“Don’t Rush,” Vince Gill featuring Kelly Clarkson
“Your Side Of The Bed,” Little Big Town
“Highway Don’t Care,” Tim McGraw, Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
“You Can’t Make Old Friends,” Kenny Rogers with Dolly Parton

PREDICTION: Tim McGraw, Taylor Swift, Keith Urban, Highway Don’t Care
ALTERNATE: The Civil Wars, From this Valley

COUNTRY SONG
“Begin Again,” (Taylor Swift)
“I Drive Your Truck,” (Lee Brice)
“Mama’s Broken Heart,” (Miranda Lambert)
“Merry Go ‘Round,” (Kacey Musgraves)
“Mine Would Be You,” (Blake Shelton)

PREDICTION:
Kacey Musgraves, Merry Go Round
ALTERNATE: Taylor Swift, Begin Again

COUNTRYALBUM
“Night Train”, Jason Aldean
“Two Lanes of Freedom”, Tim McGraw
“Same Trailer Different Park”, Kacey Musgraves
“Based On A True Story”, Blake Shelton
“Red”, Taylor Swift

PREDICTION:
Taylor Swift, Red
ALTERNATE: Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer, Different Park

SOUNDTRACK

soundtrack

SONG WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURE
“Atlas,” (Coldplay)
“Silver Lining,” (Jessie J)
“Skyfall,” (Adele)
“We Both Know,” (Colbie Cailatt, Gavin DeGraw)
“Young and Beautiful,” (Lana del Rey)
“You’ve Got Time,” (Regina Spektor)

PREDICTION:
Adele, Skyfall
ALTERNATE: Lana del Rey, Young and Beautiful

COMPILATION ALBUM
Django Unchained
The Great Gatsby
Les Miserables
Muscle Shoals
Sound City: Real to Reel

PREDICTION: Sound City: Real to Reel
ALTERNATE: Les Miserables

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