Three weeks after the Golden Globes, the second of the Big 4 guilds will be announcing their winners as the Screen Actors Guild Awards happen this weekend. It’s a fairly “bad” year per se in terms of SAG acting nominees’ correlation to eventual Oscar nominees as it’s tying record of 14/20. Whether it’s because of late releases, Netflix, or their love for Helen Mirren, it’s both good and bad that the SAGs are going their own path. That said, here are the predictions in 14 different categories this year.
THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Straight Outta Compton
PREDICTION: The Big Short. Ensembles can go two way really: big cast or well-utilized cast. The Big Short is more of the former. The names attached to it are some of the biggest and most respected in Hollywood that casting your vote for the film means an appreciation to Brad Pitt, Mark Ruffalo, Ryan Gosling, and Steve Carell. That’s too huge a ‘squad’ for them to pass on.
ALTERNATE: Spotlight. Then there’s the well-utilized cast of Spotlight. Previously, this category tends to reward stronger traditional ensembles such as this one. But then again, the SAG Ensemble award has also been indirectly referred to as the “Best Picture” category at the SAGs that sometimes the stronger picture automatically wins. This year, The Big Short fills that bill.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRYAN CRANSTON / Dalton Trumbo – “TRUMBO” (Bleecker Street)
JOHNNY DEPP / James “Whitey” Bulger – “BLACK MASS” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Hugh Glass – “THE REVENANT” (20th Century Fox)
MICHAEL FASSBENDER / Steve Jobs – “STEVE JOBS” (Universal Pictures)
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Einar Wegener/Lili Elbe – “THE DANISH GIRL” (Focus Features)
PREDICTION: Leonardo di Caprio, The Revenant. It’s really di Caprio’s year; thus, there’s no one stopping him. Like you have no idea how it’s not even close. After all, he hasn’t won an individual SAG (or even an Ensemble SAG) for that matter.
ALTERNATE: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo. Cranston probably comes to a distant second only because of the TV factor. His Walter White is still one of the most iconic TV characters in recent years, but even that wouldn’t be enough to topple Hurricane Leo.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CATE BLANCHETT / Carol Aird – “CAROL” (The Weinstein Company)
BRIE LARSON / Ma – “ROOM” (A24)
HELEN MIRREN / Maria Altmann – “WOMAN IN GOLD” (The Weinstein Company)
SAOIRSE RONAN / Eilis – “BROOKLYN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
SARAH SILVERMAN / Laney Brooks – “I SMILE BACK” (Broad Green Pictures)
PREDICTION: Brie Larson, Room. Larson gets the advantage here considering that she has been the stronger frontrunner all along. Besides, Room, despite missing on an Ensemble nod, has two nominations as compared to her closest competitor which happens to be…
ALTERNATE: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn. Unless tides shift, then Ronan still probably has a chance. Surprisingly enough, this is her first SAG nomination (she was snubbed for Atonement) so both her and Larson are ingenues in the race.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
CHRISTIAN BALE / Michael Burry – “THE BIG SHORT” (Paramount Pictures)
IDRIS ELBA / Commandant – “BEASTS OF NO NATION” (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Abel Rudolph – “BRIDGE OF SPIES” (DreamWorks)
MICHAEL SHANNON / Rick Carver – “99 HOMES” (Broad Green Pictures)
JACOB TREMBLAY / Jack – “ROOM” (A24)
PREDICTION: Christian Bale, The Big Short. Without Stallone in the equation, it’s really difficult to pinpoint which direction both the SAG and the BAFTA will go to. If the same person wins both, then we have a race. If it gets divided, then Stallone wins handily. That said, I’d give this win to Christian Bale, simply for being in the strongest film here. No one has won an acting SAG without getting nominated at the Oscars which eliminates three contenders here, and Disney hasn’t effectively been active in promoting Bridge of Spies.
ALTERNATE: Jacob Tremblay, Room. But if there’s one performance that can overcome the Oscar snub and equate it to a win, it has got to be Jacob Tremblay. This nine-year old has continuously charmed and swept off events one after the other, that Sylvester Stallone better thank him in his speech if he wins on Oscar night.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
ROONEY MARA / Therese Belivet – “CAROL” (The Weinstein Company)
RACHEL McADAMS / Sacha Pfeiffer – “SPOTLIGHT” (Open Road Films)
HELEN MIRREN / Hedda Hopper – “TRUMBO” (Bleecker Street)
ALICIA VIKANDER / Gerda Wegener – “THE DANISH GIRL” (Focus Features)
KATE WINSLET / Joanna Hoffman – “STEVE JOBS” (Universal Pictures)
PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl. This category loves its ingenues and giving them a welcome win can even be considered a tradition. With a busy year Alicia Vikander had, plus that long suffering wife role she had, this is, as Christoph Waltz would say it, an “uber bingo!”
ALTERNATE: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs. I’m a bit iffy on the idea that Kate is winning three individual movie SAGs, let alone all for supporting roles. I still think that the love for Steve Jobs is more of an HFPA thing rather than an industry momentum.
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“EVEREST” (Universal Pictures)
“FURIOUS 7” (Universal Pictures)
“JURASSIC WORLD” (Universal Pictures)
“MAD MAX: FURY ROAD” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
“MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – ROGUE NATION” (Paramount Pictures)
PREDICTION: Mad Max: Fury Road. Predicting this is likely picking up a paper in a box, but let’s give the advantage to the most buzzed contender which is Mad Max.
ALTERNATE: Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation. Then again, this is Stunts we’re talking about, and that shot of Tom Cruise hanging off a plane was one of the most buzzed this year, so maybe it can go Mission: Impossible‘s way.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
IDRIS ELBA / DCI John Luther – “LUTHER” (BBC America)
BEN KINGSLEY / Grand Vizier Ay – “TUT” (Spike)
RAY LIOTTA / Lorca/Tom Mitchell – “TEXAS RISING” (History)
BILL MURRAY / Himself – “A VERY MURRAY CHRISTMAS” (Netflix)
MARK RYLANCE / Thomas Cromwell – “WOLF HALL” (Masterpiece/PBS)
PREDICTION: Idris Elba, Luther. This could really go to anyone in the group, I’m just giving Luther the advantage because they’ve finally recognized it after so many seasons, and it can be a consolation to those not voting for Elba in Film.
ALTERNATE: Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall. Indeed one of the more buzzed performances of the previous season was from this British thespian. Somehow, both the Emmys and Globes denied him of the win though. Maybe the actors will be more receptive to it.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
NICOLE KIDMAN / Grace – “GRACE OF MONACO” (Lifetime)
QUEEN LATIFAH / Bessie Smith – “BESSIE” (HBO)
CHRISTINA RICCI / Lizzie Borden – “THE LIZZIE BORDEN CHRONICLES” (Lifetime)
SUSAN SARANDON / Gladys Mortenson – “THE SECRET LIFE OF MARILYN MONROE” (Lifetime)
KRISTEN WIIG / Delores DeWinter – “THE SPOILS BEFORE DYING” (IFC)
PREDICTION: Queen Latifah, Bessie. Latifah is a previous winner in this same category, so there’s an advantage. Plus it’s the only “prestige” vehicle in this weak lineup.
ALTERNATE: Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco. Welp they’ve boldly had the guts to nominate this, so might as well take it all the way to a win. It’s about an actor and Nicole Kidman hasn’t received and SAG yet.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC)
RAMI MALEK / Elliot – “MR. ROBOT” (USA Network)
BOB ODENKIRK / Jimmy McGill – “BETTER CALL SAUL” (AMC)
KEVIN SPACEY / Francis Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)
PREDICTION: Jon Hamm, Mad Men. It’s surprising to think that Jon Hamm has never won an individual SAG Award yet, but as strange as that sounds, he really hasn’t yet. And since the SAGs are sentimental to farewell shows, this could be another on the list.
ALTERNATE: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot. But then, they can also go on their own way and reward the most buzzed TV breakthrough performance of the season. The show is so not SAG’s alley, so the mere fact they’ve nominated it is an indication of strong support.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
VIOLA DAVIS / Annalise Keating – “HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER” (ABC)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet Crawley, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (Masterpiece/PBS)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)
PREDICTION: Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder. Where’s Taraji P. Henson by the way? Anyway, this is the same lineup from the previous year, only without Tatiana Maslany which means she was the one in sixth last year who tied to a nomination. Three of these shows have a “been there, done that” feel, so let’s just stick with actors favorite Viola Davis.
ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey. Or they might as well give it to the Dame instead despite her continuous snubbing of all her American awards show nominated recognition.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
PREDICTION: Mad Men. One last hurrah for the ensemble they’ve rewarded twice in the past.
ALTERNATE: Game of Thrones. Or they might as well give in to the deafening buzz of this thrice nominated, but never rewarded ensemble yet.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX Networks)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
JEFFREY TAMBOR / Maura Pfefferman – “TRANSPARENT” (Amazon)
PREDICTION: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent. I actually expected that they’d already nominate him last year, but it seemed like they waited for the whole season to finish first. Now he’s off to dominate this one to join his Globe and Emmy wins.
ALTERNATE: William H. Macy, Shameless. Mr. Macy is an actor’s actor and his not so surprising upset last year is a proof of that.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
ELLIE KEMPER / Kimmy Schmidt – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)
PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. After losing last year, the win is probably back in White House with JLD winning a second one for this role.
ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black. But this category also loves its supporting players, so they can just give Uzo Aduba a consecutive win here.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Key & Peele
Orange is the New Black
PREDICTION: Veep. This one can really go to any of the ensembles except The Big Bang Theory and Key & Peele. But with their Emmy win and increasing guild support, then I’d give the slight edge.
ALTERNATE: Orange is the New Black. At this point, Orange is the New Black felt like a passe already, but never underestimate this current champ composed of 40 member-ensemble to pull off a repeat win.
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